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So Torosaurus is extinct. | Deci Torosaurus este dispărut. Triceratops, dacă aţi auzit ştirea, | en-ro |
Triceratops, if you've heard the news, a lot of the newscasters got it all wrong. | einige Nachrichtensendungen haben das falsch verstanden. | en-de |
They thought Torosaurus should be kept and Triceratops thrown out, but that's not going to happen. | Torosaurus isminin kalması, Triceratops'un kaldırılması gerektiğini düşündüler, fakat malesef bu olmayacak. | en-tr |
(Laughter) All right, so we can do this with a bunch of dinosaurs. | (Смях) Можем да направим това с много динозаври. | en-bg |
I mean, here's Edmontosaurus and Anatotitan. | اعني , هُنا إدمينتوسورس و أناتوتيتان | en-ar |
Anatotitan: giant duck. | آناتوتیتان: اردک غول آسا. | en-fa |
It's a giant duck-bill dinosaur. | Het is een gigantische eendenbekdinosaurus. | en-nl |
Here's another one. | Her er der en anden. | en-da |
So we look at the bone histology. | اذاً نبحث في انسجة العظم انسجة العظم تُخبرنا | en-ar |
The bone histology tells us that Edmontosaurus is a juvenile, or at least a subadult, and the other one is an adult, and we have an ontogeny. | Edmontosaurus'un genç bir birey olduğunu veya en azından yetişkin öncesi bir birey olduğunu diğerinin de yetişkin birey olduğunu söylüyor. Yani bir ontogenimiz var. | en-tr |
And we get rid of Anatotitan. | Úgyhogy megszabadulunk az Anatotitantól. Ezt folytathatjuk tovább. | en-hu |
And the last one is T. Rex. | و آخریش تی-رکس هست. و آخریش تی-رکس هست. | en-fa |
So there's these two dinosaurs, T. Rex and Nanotyrannus. | No to mamy te dwa dinozaury, tyranozaura i nanotyrana. | en-pl |
(Laughter) Again, it makes you wonder. | (Nevetés) Újfent elgondolkodtató. | en-hu |
(Laughter) But they had a good question. | Znovu si hovoríme… (smiech) Ale napadla im dobrá otázka. | en-sk |
They were looking at them and they said, "One's got 17 teeth, and the biggest one's got 12 teeth. | i powiedzieli: „Jeden ma 17 zębów, a ten największy ma 12 zębów. A to jest kompletnie bez sensu, | en-pl |
And that doesn't make any sense at all, because we don't know of any dinosaurs that gain teeth as they get older. | "E isso não faz de todo sentido, "porque não conhecemos nenhum dinossauro "que ganhe dentes à medida que envelhece. | en-pt |
So it must be true -- they must be different." | Así que debe ser verdad, deben ser diferentes". | en-es |
So we cut into them. | 所以我們鋸開恐龍 果真 | en-zh-tw |
And sure enough, Nanotyrannus has juvenile bone and the bigger one has more mature bone. | Nanotyrannus genç kemik yapısına sahip, büyük olansa daha olgun bir kemik yapısına sahip. | en-tr |
It looks like it could still get bigger. | Čini se da bi još mogao rasti. | en-hr |
And at the Museum of the Rockies where we work, I have four T. rexes, so I can cut a whole bunch of them. | V Muzeu of the Rockies, kde pracujeme, mám čtyři T. Rexe, takže mám hodně k řezání. | en-cs |
But I didn't have to cut any of them really, because I just lined up their jaws and it turned out the biggest one had 12 teeth and the next smallest one had 13 and the next smallest had 14. | אבל לא הייתי צריך לחתוך אפילו אחד מהם מכיוון שפשוט סידרתי את הלסתות שלהם והתברר שלגדול ביותר יש 12 שיניים ולבא אחריו יש 13 ואחריו 14 | en-he |
And of course, Nano has 17. | A samozřejmě, Nano má 17. Tak jsme vyrazili a prohlédli si sbírky jiných lidí | en-cs |
And we just went out and looked at other people's collections and we found one that has sort of 15 teeth. | và chúng tôi tìm thấy một con có khoảng 15 cái răng. | en-vi |
So again, real easy to say that Tyrannosaurus ontogeny included Nanotyrannus, and therefore we can take out another dinosaur. | 因此很容易得到結論 就是暴龍的個體發生歷程 包括矮暴龍 因此我們又要跟一種恐龍說拜拜了 | en-zh-tw |
(Laughter) So when it comes down to our end Cretaceous, we have seven left. | (צחוק) אז זה מסתכם לכך בסוף הקרטיקון נשארו 7 דינוזאורים. | en-he |
And that's a good number. | 丁度良い数です | en-ja |
That's a good number to go extinct, I think. | É um bom número para se ser extinto, penso eu. | en-pt |
Now as you can imagine, this is not very popular with fourth-graders. | Tahmin edebileceğiniz gibi bu sonuç bir dördüncü sınıf öğrencisi için pek popüler değil. | en-tr |
(Laughter) Fourth-graders love their dinosaurs, they memorize them. | (Смех) Четвероклассники любят динозавров, они их запоминают. | en-ru |
And they're not happy with this. | והם לא מרוצים מזה (צחוק) | en-he |
(Laughter) Thank you very much. | Vă mulţumesc foarte mult. (Aplauze) | en-ro |
If there's one city in the world where it's hard to find a place to buy or rent, it's Sydney. | Ha van város a világon, ahol nehéz eladó vagy kiadó ingatlant találni, akkor az Sydney. | en-hu |
And if you've tried to find a home here recently, you're familiar with the problem. | 如果你最近試著在這裡找個家， 你對這個問題就會很熟悉。 | en-zh-tw |
Every time you walk into an open house, you get some information about what's out there and what's on the market, but every time you walk out, you're running the risk of the very best place passing you by. | בכל פעם שאתם נכנסים לדירה לדוגמה אתם מקבלים מידע מסוים על המצב ועל מה שיש בשוק. אבל בכל פעם שאתם יוצאים החוצה, אתם מסתכנים בכך שתחמיצו את הבית הכי טוב. | en-he |
So how do you know when to switch from looking to being ready to make an offer? | Comment savez-vous alors quand arrêter de chercher et faire une offre ? | en-fr |
This is such a cruel and familiar problem that it might come as a surprise that it has a simple solution. | 这个如此残酷和熟悉的问题 却可能有个让人惊讶的简单解决方案。 | en-zh-cn |
37 percent. | 37 אחוזים. | en-he |
(Laughter) If you want to maximize the probability that you find the very best place, you should look at 37 percent of what's on the market, and then make an offer on the next place you see, which is better than anything that you've seen so far. | (Gülüşmeler) En iyi evi bulma olasılığınızı maksimize etmek istiyorsanız pazarda olan evlerin yüzde 37'sine bakmalı ve baktığınız evlerin hepsinden daha iyi olan gördüğünüz ilk yeni evde teklif yapmalısınız. | en-tr |
Or if you're looking for a month, take 37 percent of that time -- 11 days, to set a standard -- and then you're ready to act. | А если вы искали месяц, возьмите 37% того времени — 11 дней для определения нормы, — и вы готовы действовать. | en-ru |
We know this because trying to find a place to live is an example of an optimal stopping problem. | 我們知道要這麼做， 是因為試圖找住房 就是「最佳停止問題」的例子。 | en-zh-tw |
A class of problems that has been studied extensively by mathematicians and computer scientists. | Этот тип проблем широко изучен математиками и учёными. | en-ru |
I'm a computational cognitive scientist. | אני איש מחשבים במדעי הקוגניציה. | en-he |
I spend my time trying to understand how it is that human minds work, from our amazing successes to our dismal failures. | Περνώ τον καιρό μου προσπαθώντας να καταλάβω πώς λειτουργεί ο ανθρώπινος εγκέφαλος, από τις μεγαλύτερες επιτυχίες μέχρι τις χειρότερες αποτυχίες μας. | en-el |
To do that, I think about the computational structure of the problems that arise in everyday life, and compare the ideal solutions to those problems to the way that we actually behave. | 为此，我会考虑日常生活中 出现的问题的计算结构， 并把这些问题的理想解决方案 与我们实际会做出的行为相比较。 | en-zh-cn |
As a side effect, I get to see how applying a little bit of computer science can make human decision-making easier. | 它有一個副作用， 我可以看到應用一點點電腦科學 如何能讓人類決策變得更容易。 | en-zh-tw |
I have a personal motivation for this. | 저는 이에 대해 개인적인 동기가 있습니다. | en-ko |
Growing up in Perth as an overly cerebral kid ... | גדלתי בפרת' כילד עם ראש גדול מדי... | en-he |
(Laughter) I would always try and act in the way that I thought was rational, reasoning through every decision, trying to figure out the very best action to take. | (Risos) eu sempre tentava agir da maneira que considerava racional, ponderando cada decisão, tentando descobrir a melhor ação a tomar. | en-pt-br |
But this is an approach that doesn't scale up when you start to run into the sorts of problems that arise in adult life. | Mais ce n'est pas une approche viable quand on rencontre le genre de problèmes qui émergent dans la vie adulte. | en-fr |
At one point, I even tried to break up with my girlfriend because trying to take into account her preferences as well as my own and then find perfect solutions -- (Laughter) was just leaving me exhausted. | Jednou jsem se dokonce pokusil rozejít s přítelkyní, protože brát v potaz její i moje priority a pak hledat perfektní řešení... (Smích) mne vyčerpávalo. | en-cs |
(Laughter) She pointed out that I was taking the wrong approach to solving this problem -- and she later became my wife. | (Γέλια) Μου εξήγησε ότι ακολουθούσα λάθος προσέγγιση για να λύσω το πρόβλημα και αργότερα έγινε γυναίκα μου. | en-el |
(Laughter) (Applause) Whether it's as basic as trying to decide what restaurant to go to or as important as trying to decide who to spend the rest of your life with, human lives are filled with computational problems that are just too hard to solve by applying sheer effort. | (Смех) (Аплодисменты) Будь это простой вопрос, в какой ресторан сходить, или наиболее важный, с кем провести остаток жизни, жизнь людей полна проблем, связанных с расчётами, которые очень сложно решить, прилагая только усилия. | en-ru |
For those problems, it's worth consulting the experts: computer scientists. | Para esses problemas, vale a pena consultar os especialistas: os cientistas da computação. | en-pt-br |
(Laughter) When you're looking for life advice, computer scientists probably aren't the first people you think to talk to. | (Smích) Když hledáte životní rady, informatici vás asi jako první nenapadnou. | en-cs |
Living life like a computer -- stereotypically deterministic, exhaustive and exact -- doesn't sound like a lot of fun. | Viver a vida como um computador, de maneira determinista, exaustiva e exata, não parece muito divertido. | en-pt-br |
But thinking about the computer science of human decisions reveals that in fact, we've got this backwards. | 但思考一下人類決策的電腦科學， 會發現，事實上， 我們把方向弄反了。 | en-zh-tw |
When applied to the sorts of difficult problems that arise in human lives, the way that computers actually solve those problems looks a lot more like the way that people really act. | 人間の生活に 現れるような 難しい問題に 適用するときには コンピューターは 人間の行動とよく似た方法で 問題を解くんです | en-ja |
Take the example of trying to decide what restaurant to go to. | Gidilecek restorana karar verme örneğini ele alalım. | en-tr |
This is a problem that has a particular computational structure. | هذه مشكلة لديها بنية حاسوبية خاصة. | en-ar |
You've got a set of options, you're going to choose one of those options, and you're going to face exactly the same decision tomorrow. | Έχετε συγκεκριμένες επιλογές, θα διαλέξετε μια από αυτές, και θα έχετε ακριβώς το ίδιο δίλημμα και αύριο. | en-el |
In that situation, you run up against what computer scientists call the "explore-exploit trade-off." | במצב זה, אתם במצב שמדעני המחשב מכנים "ניסוי או מיצוי". | en-he |
You have to make a decision about whether you're going to try something new -- exploring, gathering some information that you might be able to use in the future -- or whether you're going to go to a place that you already know is pretty good -- exploiting the information that you've already gathered so far. | עליכם לקבל החלטה אם לנסות משהו חדש - ניסוי, איסוף מידע נוסף שאולי תוכלו לנצל בעתיד - או שמא ללכת למקום שידוע לכם שהוא טוב למדי - מיצוי המידע שעד כה אספתם. | en-he |
The explore/exploit trade-off shows up any time you have to choose between trying something new and going with something that you already know is pretty good, whether it's listening to music or trying to decide who you're going to spend time with. | Kompromis mezi objevováním a využíváním se objevuje pokaždé, když buď zkusíte něco nového nebo uděláte to, co už dost dobře znáte. Ať je to poslouchání hudby nebo zvažování, s kým trávit čas. | en-cs |
It's also the problem that technology companies face when they're trying to do something like decide what ad to show on a web page. | Для техно-компаний похожая проблема возникает, когда они пытаются решить, какую рекламу показать на веб-сайте. | en-ru |
Should they show a new ad and learn something about it, or should they show you an ad that they already know there's a good chance you're going to click on? | האם כדאי שינסו פרסומת חדשה וילמדו מזה משהו, או להציג לכם פרסומת שכבר ידוע להם שיש סיכוי טוב שתקליקו עליה? | en-he |
Over the last 60 years, computer scientists have made a lot of progress understanding the explore/exploit trade-off, and their results offer some surprising insights. | على مرّ ال60 سنة الماضية أحرز علماء الكمبيوتر تقدّما مبهرا في دراسة كيفية البحث عن حل وسط بين الاستكتشاف والاستتثمار و تقدم لنا نتائج هذه الدراسات وجهات نظر مفاجئة | en-ar |
When you're trying to decide what restaurant to go to, the first question you should ask yourself is how much longer you're going to be in town. | Khi bạn cố đưa ra quyết định chọn nhà hàng nào để ăn câu hỏi đầu tiên bạn nên hỏi bản thân là bạn sẽ ở nơi đó bao lâu. | en-vi |
If you're just going to be there for a short time, then you should exploit. | Se estaremos só de passagem, então, devemos aproveitar. | en-pt-br |
There's no point gathering information. | 收集資訊是沒有意義的。 | en-zh-tw |
Just go to a place you already know is good. | Samo otiđite u restoran za koji već znate da je dobar. | en-hr |
But if you're going to be there for a longer time, explore. | 但如果你会呆很长的时间， 那就花点时间“探索”。 | en-zh-cn |
Try something new, because the information you get is something that can improve your choices in the future. | چیز جدیدی را امتحان کنید، چون اطلاعاتی که جمعآوری میکنید باعث تصمیمگیری بهتر در آینده خواهد شد. | en-fa |
The value of information increases the more opportunities you're going to have to use it. | Vrednost informacija se uvećava sa brojem prilika koje ćete imati da ih iskoristite. | en-sr |
This principle can give us insight into the structure of a human life as well. | Bu prensip bize insan yaşamının yapısı üzerine de iç görü verebilir. | en-tr |
Babies don't have a reputation for being particularly rational. | Младенцы не отличаются рациональным мышлением. | en-ru |
They're always trying new things, and you know, trying to stick them in their mouths. | 그들은 항상 새로운 것을 시도하고 모두 입에다 집어 넣죠. | en-ko |
But in fact, this is exactly what they should be doing. | في الواقع هذا هو بالضبط ما عليهم فعله. | en-ar |
They're in the explore phase of their lives, and some of those things could turn out to be delicious. | Ils sont dans la phase d'exploration de leur vie. Et certaines choses pourraient être vraiment bonnes. | en-fr |
At the other end of the spectrum, the old guy who always goes to the same restaurant and always eats the same thing isn't boring -- he's optimal. | Z drugiej strony mamy starszego człowieka, który zawsze chodzi do tej samej restauracji i zawsze je to samo. On nie jest nudny, tylko podejmuje optymalną decyzję. | en-pl |
(Laughter) He's exploiting the knowledge that he's earned through a lifetime's experience. | (Смех) Он пользуется знанием, которое накопил через жизненный опыт. | en-ru |
More generally, knowing about the explore/exploit trade-off can make it a little easier for you to sort of relax and go easier on yourself when you're trying to make a decision. | 更普遍來說，知道有 「探索／利用的權衡」， 就能讓你在做決策時能更輕鬆些， 不要對自己太嚴厲。 | en-zh-tw |
You don't have to go to the best restaurant every night. | Não precisamos ir todas as noites ao melhor restaurante. | en-pt-br |
Take a chance, try something new, explore. | קחו סיכון, נסו משהו חדש, התנסו. | en-he |
You might learn something. | אולי תלמדו משהו חדש. | en-he |
And the information that you gain is going to be worth more than one pretty good dinner. | И приобретённая информация будет ценнее одного хорошего ужина. | en-ru |
Computer science can also help to make it easier on us in other places at home and in the office. | מדעי המחשב יכולים גם להקל עלינו במקומות אחרים בבית ובמשרד. | en-he |
If you've ever had to tidy up your wardrobe, you've run into a particularly agonizing decision: you have to decide what things you're going to keep and what things you're going to give away. | Ako ste ikada morali da pospremite svoj garderober, naišli ste na naročito mučnu odluku: morate da odlučite koje stvari ćete zadržati, a koje ćete da poklonite. | en-sr |
Martha Stewart turns out to have thought very hard about this -- (Laughter) and she has some good advice. | 玛莎 · 斯图尔特曾经 非常认真地思考过这个问题—— （笑声） 而且她有一些好建议。 | en-zh-cn |
She says, "Ask yourself four questions: How long have I had it? | Azt mondja, négy kérdést tegyünk fel magunknak: Mióta van meg? | en-hu |
Does it still function? | Funguje to ještě? | en-cs |
Is it a duplicate of something that I already own? | 3. יש לי שניים כאלה או יותר? | en-he |
And when was the last time I wore it or used it?" | Kiedy ostatni raz to nosiłam lub używałam? | en-pl |
But there's another group of experts who perhaps thought even harder about this problem, and they would say one of these questions is more important than the others. | Ali ima još jedna grupa stručnjaka koja je možda još dublje razmišljala o ovom problemu, i oni bi rekli da je jedno od ovih pitanja mnogo važnije od ostalih. | en-sr |
Those experts? | Hangi uzmanlar mı? | en-tr |
The people who design the memory systems of computers. | コンピューターの記憶システムの 設計者です | en-ja |
Most computers have two kinds of memory systems: a fast memory system, like a set of memory chips that has limited capacity, because those chips are expensive, and a slow memory system, which is much larger. | A legtöbb számítógépnek kétféle memóriája van: egy gyors memória, például egy memóriachip-készlet. Ez korlátozott kapacitású, mert azok a chipek drágák, valamint egy lassú memória, ami jóval nagyobb. | en-hu |
In order for the computer to operate as efficiently as possible, you want to make sure that the pieces of information you want to access are in the fast memory system, so that you can get to them quickly. | כדי שהמחשב יתפקד בשיא היעילות, יש לוודא שהמידע שאליו רוצים לגשת יימצא במערכת הזכרון המהיר, כדי שאפשר יהיה להגיע אליו במהירות. | en-he |
Each time you access a piece of information, it's loaded into the fast memory and the computer has to decide which item it has to remove from that memory, because it has limited capacity. | Chaque fois qu'on récupère une donnée, elle est chargée dans le processeur, et l'ordinateur doit décider ce qu'il va effacer pour lui laisser de la place. | en-fr |
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