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First of all, worse nutrition, maybe shorter life spans. | Öncelikle, daha kötü beslenme, belki daha kısa ömre sebep oldu. | en-tr |
It was simply awful for women. | To je bilo naprosto užasno za žene. | en-sr |
The skeletal remains from that period have shown that they were grinding grain morning, noon and night. | Ostaci skeleta iz tog perioda pokazuju da su one mlele žito, od jutra do sutra. | en-sr |
And politically, it was awful. | Secara politis, ini buruk. | en-id |
It was the beginning of a much higher degree of inequality among people. | Беше началото на много по-висока степен на неравенство между хората. | en-bg |
If there had been rational technology assessment then, I think they very well might have said, "Let's call the whole thing off." | Da je tada bilo racionalnog vrednovanja tehnologije, ja mislim da bi oni verovatno rekli, "Hajde da odustanemo od cele ove ideje." | en-sr |
Even now, our choices are having unintended effects. | Teraz też nasze wybory wywołują niezamierzone skutki. | en-pl |
Historically, for example, chopsticks -- according to one Japanese anthropologist who wrote a dissertation about it at the University of Michigan -- resulted in long-term changes in the dentition, in the teeth, of the Japanese public. | Например, исторически, палочки — согласно одному японскому антропологу, написавшему об этом диссертацию в университете Мичигана — привели к долговременным изменениям в прикусе, в зубах японского народа. | en-ru |
And we are also changing our teeth right now. | I mi danas takođe menjamo svoje zube. | en-sr |
There is evidence that the human mouth and teeth are growing smaller all the time. | İnsan ağzının ve dişlerinin giderek daha da küçüldüğüne dair kanıtlar var. | en-tr |
That's not necessarily a bad unintended consequence. | Ce n'est pas nécessairement une mauvaise conséquence inattendue. | en-fr |
But I think from the point of view of a Neanderthal, there would have been a lot of disapproval of the wimpish choppers that we now have. | Ama bence bir Neandertalin bakış açısından, şimdi sahip olduğumuz küçük, zararsız dişlere karşı büyük bir hoşnutsuzluk olurdu. | en-tr |
So these things are kind of relative to where you or your ancestors happen to stand. | Wszystko zależy od od punktu widzenia. | en-pl |
In the ancient world there was a lot of respect for unintended consequences, and there was a very healthy sense of caution, reflected in the Tree of Knowledge, in Pandora's Box, and especially in the myth of Prometheus that's been so important in recent metaphors about technology. | W starożytności przywiązywano wielką wagę do niezamierzonych skutków, a ostrożność znalazła swoje odzwierciedlenie w drzewie poznania dobra i zła, puszce Pandory, a zwłaszcza w micie o Prometeuszu, tak istotnym w niedawnych metaforach na temat technologii. | en-pl |
And that's all very true. | 而這些都是真的。 | en-zh-tw |
The physicians of the ancient world -- especially the Egyptians, who started medicine as we know it -- were very conscious of what they could and couldn't treat. | Os médicos do mundo antigo – principalmente os egípcios, que começaram a medicina como a conhecemos – eram muito conscientes do que podiam e não podiam tratar. | en-pt-br |
And the translations of the surviving texts say, "This I will not treat. This I cannot treat." | В переводах сохранившихся текстов говорится: «Я не буду это лечить. Я не могу это вылечить». | en-ru |
They were very conscious. | Είχαν αίσθηση. | en-el |
So were the followers of Hippocrates. | Такими були і послідовники Гіпократа. | en-uk |
The Hippocratic manuscripts also -- repeatedly, according to recent studies -- show how important it is not to do harm. | Los manuscritos hipocráticos también –en repetidas ocasiones, según estudios recientes– manifiestan lo importante que es no hacer daño. | en-es |
More recently, Harvey Cushing, who really developed neurosurgery as we know it, who changed it from a field of medicine that had a majority of deaths resulting from surgery to one in which there was a hopeful outlook, he was very conscious that he was not always going to do the right thing. | Gần đây hơn, Harvey Cushing, người đã phát triển giải phẫu thần kinh đã thay đổi nó từ một lĩnh vực y học có số ca lớn tử vong từ phẫu thuật trở thành một lĩnh vực đầy triển vọng, ông đã ý thức rõ rằng không phải lúc nào ông cũng làm đúng | en-vi |
But he did his best, and he kept meticulous records that let him transform that branch of medicine. | Tapi dia melakukan yang terbaik, dan mencatatkan prestasi dalam kehati-hatian yang membuatnya bisa mengubah bidang kedokteran itu. | en-id |
Now if we look forward a bit to the 19th century, we find a new style of technology. | Spójrzmy teraz na XIX stulecie. Technologia w nowym wydaniu. | en-pl |
What we find is, no longer simple tools, but systems. | Nie ma już prostych narzędzi, są systemy. | en-pl |
We find more and more complex arrangements of machines that make it harder and harder to diagnose what's going on. | Wir finden immer komplexere Maschinenarragements, und es wird schwieriger zu diagnostizieren, was mit ihnen los ist. | en-de |
And the first people who saw that were the telegraphers of the mid-19th century, who were the original hackers. | 第一個發現這個問題的人是 是十九世紀中葉的電報員, 也是最早的駭客。 | en-zh-tw |
Thomas Edison would have been very, very comfortable in the atmosphere of a software firm today. | Томас Эдисон был бы в своей тарелке в атмосфере современной ИТ-компании. | en-ru |
And these hackers had a word for those mysterious bugs in telegraph systems that they called bugs. | І ці хакери запровадили слово для незрозумілих помилок у телеграфній системі: вони назвали їх комахами - "багами". | en-uk |
That was the origin of the word "bug." | Tako je i nastala riječ "bug". | en-hr |
This consciousness, though, was a little slow to seep through the general population, even people who were very, very well informed. | אך מודעות זו היתה איטית מדי בכדי לחלחל לכלל האוכלוסיה אפילו לאנשים שהיו מעודכנים ביותר | en-he |
Samuel Clemens, Mark Twain, was a big investor in the most complex machine of all times -- at least until 1918 -- registered with the U.S. Patent Office. | Samuel Clemens, Mark Twain, était un gros investisseur dans la machine la plus complexe de tous les temps -- au moins jusqu'en 1918 -- enregistré au bureau des brevets américains. | en-fr |
That was the Paige typesetter. | それがペイジの自動植字機でした | en-ja |
The Paige typesetter had 18,000 parts. | Печатарската машина Пейдж имаше 18 000 части. | en-bg |
The patent had 64 pages of text and 271 figures. | Le brevet comportait 64 pages de texte et 271 schémas. | en-fr |
It was such a beautiful machine because it did everything that a human being did in setting type -- including returning the type to its place, which was a very difficult thing. | यह बहुत उत्कृष्ट मशीन थी क्यूंकि ये वो सरे कार्य कर सकती थी जो एक मनुष्य ने किया था प्रकार की स्थापना में टाइप को इसकी पुनार्वस्था में लाना जो की एक बहुत जटिल कार्य था | en-hi |
And Mark Twain, who knew all about typesetting, really was smitten by this machine. | Ve dizgicilik hakkında herşeyi bilen Mark Twain bu makineye gerçekten aşık olmuştu. | en-tr |
Unfortunately, he was smitten in more ways than one, because it made him bankrupt, and he had to tour the world speaking to recoup his money. | К несчастью, было поражено не только его воображение — машина привела его к банкротству, и он вынужден был гастролировать по миру с речами, чтобы вернуть свои деньги. | en-ru |
And this was an important thing about 19th century technology, that all these relationships among parts could make the most brilliant idea fall apart, even when judged by the most expert people. | Y esto es algo importante acerca de la tecnología del siglo 19, que todas estas relaciones entre sus componentes podían destruir hasta la idea más brillante, incluso cuando eran juzgadas por los más expertos. | en-es |
Now there is something else, though, in the early 20th century that made things even more complicated. | Ora c'è qualcos'altro all'inizio del 20° secolo che rendeva le cose ancora più complicate. | en-it |
And that was that safety technology itself could be a source of danger. | なんと安全技術そのものが 危険を招きかねないのです | en-ja |
The lesson of the Titanic, for a lot of the contemporaries, was that you must have enough lifeboats for everyone on the ship. | La lezione del Titanic, per molti dei contemporanei, era che bisogna avere sufficienti scialuppe di salvataggio per tutti gli occupanti della nave. | en-it |
And this was the result of the tragic loss of lives of people who could not get into them. | 救命ボートに乗れずに 失われた尊い命から 学んだことです | en-ja |
However, there was another case, the Eastland, a ship that capsized in Chicago Harbor in 1915, and it killed 841 people -- that was 14 more than the passenger toll of the Titanic. | 그러나, 1915년에 시카고 항구에 전복한 이스트랜드의 사례도 있는데요. 이 사건은 타이타닉의 승객 숫자보다 14명이 많은 841명의 생명을 앗아갔습니다. | en-ko |
The reason for it, in part, was the extra life boats that were added that made this already unstable ship even more unstable. | Tragedia a fost cauzată, în parte, de bărcile de salvare suplimentare care au făcut această navă deja instabilă și mai instabilă. | en-ro |
And that again proves that when you're talking about unintended consequences, it's not that easy to know the right lessons to draw. | Kolejny dowód na to, że jeśli chodzi o niezamierzone skutki, trudno ocenić, jakie wnioski należy wyciągnąć. | en-pl |
It's really a question of the system, how the ship was loaded, the ballast and many other things. | E chiar o chestiune a sistemului, cum a fost încărcată nava, balastul și multe altele. | en-ro |
So the 20th century, then, saw how much more complex reality was, but it also saw a positive side. | Deci secolul XX, a văzut cât de complexă era realitatea de fapt, dar a văzut și o latură pozitivă. | en-ro |
It saw that invention could actually benefit from emergencies. | L'innovation pouvait en vérité profiter des situations de crises. | en-fr |
It could benefit from tragedies. | Može napredovati u tragedijama. | en-sr |
And my favorite example of that -- which is not really widely known as a technological miracle, but it may be one of the greatest of all times, was the scaling up of penicillin in the Second World War. | Και το αγαπημένο μου παράδειγμα πάνω σ' αυτό που δεν είναι ευρέως γνωστό ως τεχνολογικό θαύμα αλλά ίσως είναι ένα απ' τα μεγαλύτερα όλων των εποχών ήταν η αύξηση της πενικιλίνης στο Δεύτερο Παγκόσμιο Πόλεμο. | en-el |
Penicillin was discovered in 1928, but even by 1940, no commercially and medically useful quantities of it were being produced. | La penicilina fue descubierta en 1928, pero incluso en 1940, no se estaban produciendo cantidades útiles comercial y médicamente. | en-es |
A number of pharmaceutical companies were working on it. | いくつもの製薬会社が取り組んでいましたが | en-ja |
They were working on it independently, and they weren't getting anywhere. | Radile su nezavisno jedna od druge, a ništa nisu postizale. | en-sr |
And the Government Research Bureau brought representatives together and told them that this is something that has to be done. | Ve Devlet Araştırma Bürosu, temsilcileri biraraya getirdi ve bunun yapılması şart olan birşey olduğunu söyledi. | en-tr |
And not only did they do it, but within two years, they scaled up penicillin from preparation in one-liter flasks to 10,000-gallon vats. | I ne samo da su to učinili, već su za dve godine, unapredili penicilin od pripreme u litarskim posudama do buradi od 38 hiljada litara. | en-sr |
That was how quickly penicillin was produced and became one of the greatest medical advances of all time. | Ecco quanto si velocizzò la produzione di penicillina, diventando una delle più grandi conquiste mediche di sempre. | en-it |
In the Second World War, too, the existence of solar radiation was demonstrated by studies of interference that was detected by the radar stations of Great Britain. | 同じく第2次世界大戦中に 太陽電波の存在が 明らかになりました イギリスのレーダー基地に生じた 障害の研究から判ったことです | en-ja |
So there were benefits in calamities -- benefits to pure science, as well as to applied science and medicine. | Katastrophen hatten also auch Vorteile – Vorteile für die theoretische und angewandte Wissenschaft und Medizin. | en-de |
Now when we come to the period after the Second World War, unintended consequences get even more interesting. | Nu komen we tot de periode na de Tweede Wereldoorlog waar onbedoelde gevolgen nog interessanter werden. | en-nl |
And my favorite example of that occurred beginning in 1976, when it was discovered that the bacteria causing Legionnaires disease had always been present in natural waters, but it was the precise temperature of the water in heating, ventilating and air conditioning systems that raised the right temperature for the maximum reproduction of Legionella bacillus. | Contoh favorit saya muncul di awal tahun 1976, saat ditemukan bahwa bakteri yang menyebabkan penyakit Legionnaires selalu ada di air yang ada di alam, tapi suhu tertentu air itulah karena pemanasan, ventilasi, dan sistem pengaturan udara yang menaikkan suhu yang tepat untuk reproduksi maksimal Legionella bacillus. | en-id |
Well, technology to the rescue. | Bom, tecnologia para o resgate. | en-pt-br |
So chemists got to work, and they developed a bactericide that became widely used in those systems. | והכימאים ניגשו לעבודה ופיתחו חיידקים ששימושם במערכות אלו הפך לנפוץ. | en-he |
But something else happened in the early 1980s, and that was that there was a mysterious epidemic of failures of tape drives all over the United States. | Nhưng 1 thứ khác đã xảy ra đầu những năm 80 và đó là một loại dịch bộc phát bí ẩn về việc hàng loạt các băng đĩa bị hỏng khắp đất nước Mỹ | en-vi |
And IBM, which made them, just didn't know what to do. | 그리고 그것들을 만든 IBM은, 단지 어떻게 해야할지 몰랐어요. | en-ko |
They commissioned a group of their best scientists to investigate, and what they found was that all these tape drives were located near ventilation ducts. | Scelsero alcuni dei loro migliori scienziati per investigare, e quello che scoprirono fu che tutti questi nastri magnetici erano collocati nei pressi dei condotti di ventilazione. | en-it |
What happened was the bactericide was formulated with minute traces of tin. | وماحدث ان مضاد البكتريا الذي صُنع تفاعل مع جزيئات القصدير | en-ar |
And these tin particles were deposited on the tape heads and were crashing the tape heads. | І ці часточки олова осідали на магнітних головках приводів, спричиняючи їх відмову. | en-uk |
So they reformulated the bactericide. | Jadi mereka memformulasikan ulang bakterisida. | en-id |
But what's interesting to me is that this was the first case of a mechanical device suffering, at least indirectly, from a human disease. | אך מה שמענין בשבילי הוא זה שזה היה המקרה הראשון של מיכשור טכני שסבל, לפחות באופן עקיף, ממחלת אנוש. | en-he |
So it shows that we're really all in this together. | Ez azt mutatja, hogy mennyire összetartozunk mindannyian. | en-hu |
(Laughter) In fact, it also shows something interesting, that although our capabilities and technology have been expanding geometrically, unfortunately, our ability to model their long-term behavior, which has also been increasing, has been increasing only arithmetically. | (Cười) Sự thật là, nó cũng cho thấy thứ gì đó thú vị dù năng lực của chúng ta và nền công nghệ đang được mở rộng theo cấp số nhân. thật không may, khả năng chúng ta điều chỉnh hành vi lâu dài mà cũng đang tăng nhưng chỉ tăng theo cấp số cộng. | en-vi |
So one of the characteristic problems of our time is how to close this gap between capabilities and foresight. | Nên một trong những vấn đề đặc trưng trong thời đại này là làm thế nào thu hẹp khoảng cách này giữa những khả năng xảy ra và tầm nhìn. | en-vi |
One other very positive consequence of 20th century technology, though, was the way in which other kinds of calamities could lead to positive advances. | Namun, salah satu konsekuensi yang sangat positif dari teknologi abad ke-20 adalah bagaimana berbagai bencana bisa mendorong terciptanya kemajuan yang positif. | en-id |
There are two historians of business at the University of Maryland, Brent Goldfarb and David Kirsch, who have done some extremely interesting work, much of it still unpublished, on the history of major innovations. | Ka dy historianë biznesi në Universitetin e Maryland, Brent Goldfarb dhe David Kirsch, të cilët kanë bërë punë jashtëzakonisht interesante, shumë prej së cilës ende nuk është botuar, rreth historisë së inovacioneve më të mëdha. | en-sq |
They have combined the list of major innovations, and they've discovered that the greatest number, the greatest decade, for fundamental innovations, as reflected in all of the lists that others have made -- a number of lists that they have merged -- was the Great Depression. | Συνδύασαν τη λίστα των μεγαλύτερων καινοτομιών και ανακάλυψαν ότι η σημαντικότερη δεκαετία (σε αριθμό) για θεμελιώδεις καινοτομίες όπως απεικονίζεται σε όλες τις λίστες που έχουν γίνει κατα καιρούς από άλλους -- λίστες τις οποίες έχουν συνενώσει ήταν η Μεγάλη Ύφεση. | en-el |
And nobody knows just why this was so, but one story can reflect something of it. | Nie wiadomo, z czego to wynika, ale pewna historia może być tu pomocna. | en-pl |
It was the origin of the Xerox copier, which celebrated its 50th anniversary last year. | Это была история происхождения копировальной машины Xerox, которая отпраздновала пятидесятилетие в прошлом году. | en-ru |
And Chester Carlson, the inventor, was a patent attorney. | Chester Carlson, de uitvinder, was een octrooigemachtigde. | en-nl |
He really was not intending to work in patent research, but he couldn't really find an alternative technical job. | Той не е имал намерение наистина да работи в сферата на патентите, но не е могъл да намери алтернативна техническа работа. | en-bg |
So this was the best job he could get. | Jadi itu adalah pekerjaan terbaik yang bisa dia dapatkan. | en-id |
He was upset by the low quality and high cost of existing patent reproductions, and so he started to develop a system of dry photocopying, which he patented in the late 1930s -- and which became the first dry photocopier that was commercially practical in 1960. | Mevcut patent kopyalarının düşük kalitesi ve yüksek maliyetinden memnun değildi ve bu yüzden bir kuru fotokopileme sistemi geliştirdi, 1930'lu yılların sonlarında patentini aldı ve böylece bu sistem 1960 yılında ticari olarak kullanabilir ilk kuru fotokopi makinesi oldu. | en-tr |
So we see that sometimes, as a result of these dislocations, as a result of people leaving their original intended career and going into something else where their creativity could make a difference, that depressions and all kinds of other unfortunate events can have a paradoxically stimulating effect on creativity. | Ainsi nous observons que parfois, comme résultat de ces ruptures, comme conséquence du fait que des individus quittent leur carrière initiale pour aller dans quelque chose où leur créativité pourrait faire la différences, que les crises économiques et toutes sortes d'événements malheureux peuvent avoir un effet stimulant paradoxal sur la créativité. | en-fr |
What does this mean? | O que é que isto significa? | en-pt |
It means, I think, that we're living in a time of unexpected possibilities. | Cela veut dire, je pense, que nous vivons dans une époque de possibilités inattendues. | en-fr |
Think of the financial world, for example. | Pomislite na svet finansija, na primer. | en-sr |
The mentor of Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham, developed his system of value investing as a result of his own losses in the 1929 crash. | Менторът на Уорън Бъфет, Бенджамин Граам, развил своята система за стойностно инвестиране като резултат от своите загуби във фалита през 1929. | en-bg |
And he published that book in the early 1930s, and the book still exists in further editions and is still a fundamental textbook. | Ve kitabı 1930'lu yılların başında yayınladı. Ve bu kitap hala günümüzde basımda ve hala önemli bir ders kitabı. | en-tr |
So many important creative things can happen when people learn from disasters. | אז הרבה דברים יצירתיים וחשובים יכולים לקרות כשאנשים לומדים מאסונות. | en-he |
Now think of the large and small plagues that we have now -- bed bugs, killer bees, spam -- and it's very possible that the solutions to those will really extend well beyond the immediate question. | Pensate ora ai problemi piccoli e grandi che ci affliggono oggi -- insetti del letto, api assassine, spam -- ed è davvero possibile che le soluzioni a questi problemi vadano al di là della questione immediata. | en-it |
If we think, for example, of Louis Pasteur, who in the 1860s was asked to study the diseases of silk worms for the silk industry, and his discoveries were really the beginning of the germ theory of disease. | Louis Pasteur w latach 60. XIX w. badał choroby jedwabników na potrzeby jedwabnictwa, ale jego odkrycia dały początek teorii chorób zakaźnych. | en-pl |
So very often, some kind of disaster -- sometimes the consequence, for example, of over-cultivation of silk worms, which was a problem in Europe at the time -- can be the key to something much bigger. | 그래서 예를 들어, 종종 재해의 일종과 때로는 그 결과, 당시 유럽에서 문제가 발생했던 실크 벌레의 과다 재배는, 훨씬 더 큰 무언가를 위한 열쇠가 될 수 있습니다. | en-ko |
So this means that we need to take a different view of unintended consequences. | Então isto quer dizer que precisamos ter uma visão diferente das consequência não-intencionais. | en-pt-br |
We need to take a really positive view. | Ми потребуємо позитивного погляду. | en-uk |
We need to see what they can do for us. | Chúng ta cần xem họ có thể làm gì cho ta. | en-vi |
We need to learn from those figures that I mentioned. | 我們需要向 我剛剛提到的那些人們學習。 | en-zh-tw |
We need to learn, for example, from Dr. Cushing, who killed patients in the course of his early operations. | Moramo učiti, na primjer, od dr. Cushinga, koje je ubijao pacijente na svojim prvim operacijama. | en-hr |
He had to have some errors. He had to have some mistakes. | Ông ấy đã có sai sót, cũng đã mắc sai lầm | en-vi |
And he learned meticulously from his mistakes. | En hij leerde nauwgezet van zijn fouten. | en-nl |
And as a result, when we say, "This isn't brain surgery," that pays tribute to how difficult it was for anyone to learn from their mistakes in a field of medicine that was considered so discouraging in its prospects. | Ve sonuç olarak, "Beyin ameliyatı yapmıyorsun." dediğimizde, görünümde çok heves kırıcı olduğu düşünülen bir tıp dalında, hatalarından ders çıkarmanın ne kadar zor olduğunu bilen insanlara saygılarımızı sunmuş oluyoruz. | en-tr |
And we can also remember how the pharmaceutical companies were willing to pool their knowledge, to share their knowledge, in the face of an emergency, which they hadn't really been for years and years. | Ve ayrıca ilaç şiketlerinin acil bir durum karşısında bilgilerini birleştirmeye, bilgilerini paylaşmaya hazır olduklarını hatırlayabiliriz, ki yıllardır bu istekliliği gerçekten göstermediler. | en-tr |
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