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The question is: Is any of this true for cities and companies? | A questão é: será alguma parte disto verdade para as cidades e empresas? | en-pt |
So is London a scaled up Birmingham, which is a scaled up Brighton, etc., etc.? | 그래서 런던은 버밍햄이 커진 것이고, 버밍햄은 브라이튼을 크게 만든 것이고... | en-ko |
Is New York a scaled up San Francisco, which is a scaled up Santa Fe? | ? Je New York zväčšeným San Franciscom, ktoré je zväčšeným Santa Fe? | en-sk |
Don't know. We will discuss that. | Nu ştiu. Vom dezbate asta. | en-ro |
But they are networks, and the most important network of cities is you. | Но има мрежи. И най-важната мрежа от градовете сте вие. | en-bg |
Cities are just a physical manifestation of your interactions, our interactions, and the clustering and grouping of individuals. | Gradovi su samo fizička manifestacija vaših međuveza, naših međuveza, i klastriranja i grupiranja pojedinaca. | en-hr |
Here's just a symbolic picture of that. | Itt egy kép ami jelképesen ezt ábrázolja. | en-hu |
And here's scaling of cities. | 그리고 여기 도시를 확장시킨것이 있습니다 | en-ko |
This shows that in this very simple example, which happens to be a mundane example of number of petrol stations as a function of size -- plotted in the same way as the biology -- you see exactly the same kind of thing. | Ini menunjukkan bahwa pada contoh yang sangat sederhana ini, yang kebetulan juga contoh yang sepele dari jumlah pompa bensin sebagai fungsi dari ukuran -- digambarkan dengan cara yang sama dengan biologi -- kita melihat hal yang sama persis. | en-id |
There is a scaling. | Há uma evolução na escala. | en-pt-br |
That is that the number of petrol stations in the city is now given to you when you tell me its size. | O número de postos de gasolina na cidade agora é dado a vocês quando me dizem o tamanho dela. | en-pt-br |
The slope of that is less than linear. | La pendiente es menos que lineal. | en-es |
There is an economy of scale. | Der er stordriftsfordele. | en-da |
Less petrol stations per capita the bigger you are -- not surprising. | Im większe miasto, tym mniej stacji na mieszkańca -- żadne zaskoczenie. | en-pl |
But here's what's surprising. | Avšak toto je prekvapivé. | en-sk |
It scales in the same way everywhere. | Det skalerer på samme måde overalt. | en-da |
This is just European countries, but you do it in Japan or China or Colombia, always the same with the same kind of economy of scale to the same degree. | Dit zijn slechts Europese landen, maar je vindt in Japan of China of Columbia altijd hetzelfde met hetzelfde soort van schaalvoordeel in dezelfde mate. | en-nl |
And any infrastructure you look at -- whether it's the length of roads, length of electrical lines -- anything you look at has the same economy of scale scaling in the same way. | E qualquer infraestrutura que se observe - seja o comprimento de estradas, ou o comprimento das linhas eléctricas - tudo o que se observe tem a mesma economia de escala, medida da mesma forma. | en-pt |
It's an integrated system that has evolved despite all the planning and so on. | È un sistema integrato che si è evoluto nonostante tutta la pianificazione e altro. | en-it |
But even more surprising is if you look at socio-economic quantities, quantities that have no analog in biology, that have evolved when we started forming communities eight to 10,000 years ago. | Но още по-изненадващо е, ако се вгледате в социално-икономически показатели, показатели, които нямат аналог в областта на биологията, които са се развили, когато сме започнали да формираме общности, преди 8000 до 10 000 години. | en-bg |
The top one is wages as a function of size plotted in the same way. | A de cima é o salário em função do tamanho representado da mesma maneira. | en-pt-br |
And the bottom one is you lot -- super-creatives plotted in the same way. | E a de baixo representa vocês -- super criativos representados da mesma maneira. | en-pt-br |
And what you see is a scaling phenomenon. | ここで見られるのは 拡大縮小の現象です | en-ja |
But most important in this, the exponent, the analog to that three-quarters for the metabolic rate, is bigger than one -- it's about 1.15 to 1.2. | Dar cel mai important în cadrul acestuia, exponentul, analogic acelor trei sferturi ai ratei metabolice, este mai mare de unu - este aproximativ 1.15 până la1.2. | en-ro |
Here it is, which says that the bigger you are the more you have per capita, unlike biology -- higher wages, more super-creative people per capita as you get bigger, more patents per capita, more crime per capita. | İşte böylece, biyolojinin tersi olarak daha çok büyüdkçe, birim başına daha fazla elde edersiniz, büyüdükçe daha fazla maaş, daha fazla yaratıcı insan, daha fazla patent, daha fazla suç. | en-tr |
And we've looked at everything: more AIDS cases, flu, etc. | Dhe ne fakt kemi pare gjithcka: raste te SIDA-s, te gripit, etj. | en-sq |
And here, they're all plotted together. | Եվ ահա, դրանք բոլորը գծագրել ենք մեկտեղ: | en-hy |
Just to show you what we plotted, here is income, GDP -- GDP of the city -- crime and patents all on one graph. | Sekadar untuk menunjukkan apa yang kita gambarkan, inilah pendapatan, PDB -- PDB kota ini -- kejahatan dan paten semuanya di satu grafik. | en-id |
And you can see, they all follow the same line. | Şi, după cum puteţi vedea, toate urmează aceeaşi linie. | en-ro |
And here's the statement. | E aqui está a afirmação. | en-pt-br |
If you double the size of a city from 100,000 to 200,000, from a million to two million, 10 to 20 million, it doesn't matter, then systematically you get a 15 percent increase in wages, wealth, number of AIDS cases, number of police, anything you can think of. | Se duplicarmos o tamanho de uma cidade de 100 mil para 200 mil de um milhão para dois milhões, de 10 para 20 milhões, não faz diferença, porque sistematicamente há um aumento de 15% em salários, saúde, número de casos de SIDA, número de polícias, tudo em que possam pensar. | en-pt |
It goes up by 15 percent, and you have a 15 percent savings on the infrastructure. | Увеличивается на 15 процентов. И 15 процентов экономится на инфраструктуре. | en-ru |
This, no doubt, is the reason why a million people a week are gathering in cities. | Esta, sem dúvida, é a razão de um milhão de pessoas por semana se juntarem às cidades. | en-pt-br |
Because they think that all those wonderful things -- like creative people, wealth, income -- is what attracts them, forgetting about the ugly and the bad. | เนื่องจากพวกเขาคิดว่ามีแต่สิ่งดีๆ เช่น คนหัวสร้างสรรค์ ความมั่งคั่ง รายได้ เป็นสิ่งที่ดึงดูดพวกเขาเข้ามา ลืมไปเลยกับความน่าเกลียดความเลวร้าย | en-th |
What is the reason for this? | Dlaczego tak się dzieje? | en-pl |
Well I don't have time to tell you about all the mathematics, but underlying this is the social networks, because this is a universal phenomenon. | Açıkcası işin bütün matematiğini anlatacak kadar vaktim yok, ama bunun altında yatan sosyal ağ örgüleridir, çünkü bu bir evrensel olgudur. | en-tr |
This 15 percent rule is true no matter where you are on the planet -- Japan, Chile, Portugal, Scotland, doesn't matter. | この15％の法則は 地球上のどこにいても 当てはまります 日本 チリ ポルトガル スコットランドどこでも関係ありません | en-ja |
Always, all the data shows it's the same, despite the fact that these cities have evolved independently. | 所有的數據資料總是顯示相同的結果, 儘管事實是,這些都市一直是獨立演化發展。 | en-zh-tw |
Something universal is going on. | Nešto univerzalno se događa. | en-hr |
The universality, to repeat, is us -- that we are the city. | Ta univerzalnost, da ponovim, smo mi -- mi smo grad. | en-hr |
And it is our interactions and the clustering of those interactions. | E são as nossas interações e o agrupamento dessas interações. | en-pt-br |
So there it is, I've said it again. | Οπότε να᾽το, το ξανάπα. | en-el |
So if it is those networks and their mathematical structure, unlike biology, which had sublinear scaling, economies of scale, you had the slowing of the pace of life as you get bigger. | Son todas esas redes y su estructura matemática. Por una parte la biología con su escala sublineal, su economía de escala, y el menor ritmo en el paso de la vida a medida que crecemos. | en-es |
If it's social networks with super-linear scaling -- more per capita -- then the theory says that you increase the pace of life. | Ak sa jedná o sociálne prepojenia so sklonom vyšším ako 1 -- viac na hlavu -- teória potom tvrdí, že tempo života sa zvyšuje. | en-sk |
The bigger you are, life gets faster. | ככל שאתה יותר גדול, החיים הופכים למהירים יותר. | en-he |
On the left is the heart rate showing biology. | Quella a sinistra è la frequenza cardiaca. | en-it |
On the right is the speed of walking in a bunch of European cities, showing that increase. | A droite, c'est la vitesse de marche dans un tas de villes européennes, qui montre cette augmentation. | en-fr |
Lastly, I want to talk about growth. | Na koniec, chcę pomówić o rozwoju. | en-pl |
This is what we had in biology, just to repeat. | 這是生物界所有的特性,只是重申! | en-zh-tw |
Economies of scale gave rise to this sigmoidal behavior. | Stordriftsfordele gav ophav til denne sigmoide opførsel. | en-da |
You grow fast and then stop -- part of our resilience. | 你快速生长接着停止生长 这是我们回复力的表现 | en-zh-cn |
That would be bad for economies and cities. | Ez rossz lenne a gazdaságnak és a városoknak. | en-hu |
And indeed, one of the wonderful things about the theory is that if you have super-linear scaling from wealth creation and innovation, then indeed you get, from the same theory, a beautiful rising exponential curve -- lovely. | Een van de prachtige dingen over de theorie is dit: als je superlineaire schaling van welvaart en innovatie hebt, dan volgt inderdaad uit dezelfde theorie een mooie stijgende exponentiële curve - mooi. | en-nl |
And in fact, if you compare it to data, it fits very well with the development of cities and economies. | Als je dat vergelijkt met de gegevens, past het heel goed bij de ontwikkeling van steden en economieën. | en-nl |
But it has a terrible catch, and the catch is that this system is destined to collapse. | Ma c'è un rovescio della medaglia. Ossia che questo sistema è destinato a crollare. | en-it |
And it's destined to collapse for many reasons -- kind of Malthusian reasons -- that you run out of resources. | 有好幾個理由註定它會瓦解── 有幾分數學原因──資源耗盡。 | en-zh-tw |
And how do you avoid that? Well we've done it before. | どうやってこれを回避するのか？以前にも成功しています | en-ja |
What we do is, as we grow and we approach the collapse, a major innovation takes place and we start over again, and we start over again as we approach the next one, and so on. | Điều chúng ta làm là, khi chúng ta phát triển và đến gần sự sụp đổ, một sự đổi mới lớn đã diễn ra và chúng ta bắt đầu lại từ đầu. Và cứ thế chúng ta bắt đầu lại từ đầu mỗi khi đến gần với sự sụp đổ. | en-vi |
So there's this continuous cycle of innovation that is necessary in order to sustain growth and avoid collapse. | إذا هنالك دائرية متتابعة من الابتكارات وذلك ضروري وذلك لضمان النمو وتجنب الإنهيار | en-ar |
The catch, however, to this is that you have to innovate faster and faster and faster. | O senão disto, contudo, é que temos de inovar cada vez mais e mais depressa. | en-pt |
So the image is that we're not only on a treadmill that's going faster, but we have to change the treadmill faster and faster. | Então a imagem é que não só estamos numa passadeira que rola cada vez mais rapidamente, como temos que mudar a passadeira cada vez mais depressa. | en-pt |
We have to accelerate on a continuous basis. | เราต้องใช้อัตราเร่งให้ต่อเนื่องไปตลอด | en-th |
And the question is: Can we, as socio-economic beings, avoid a heart attack? | E la domanda è: sarà possibile, in quanto esseri socio-economici, evitare un attacco cardiaco? | en-it |
So lastly, I'm going to finish up in this last minute or two asking about companies. | Så tilsidst vil jeg afslutte i de sidste par minutter med at undersøge virksomheder. | en-da |
See companies, they scale. | Vidíte spoločnosti, menia sa s merítkom. | en-sk |
The top one, in fact, is Walmart on the right. | Onaj na vrhu, u stvari, to je Walmart na desno. | en-hr |
It's the same plot. | Είναι η ίδια πλοκή. | en-el |
This happens to be income and assets versus the size of the company as denoted by its number of employees. | 橫軸是收入和資產 對上公司規模大小,以員工數代表。 | en-zh-tw |
We could use sales, anything you like. | Poderíamos usar vendas, o que quiserem. | en-pt-br |
There it is: after some little fluctuations at the beginning, when companies are innovating, they scale beautifully. | Nach einigen Fluktuationen am Anfang, sobald Firmen entwickeln, skalieren sie wunderbar. | en-de |
And we've looked at 23,000 companies in the United States, may I say. | Abbiamo analizzato 23.000 aziende negli Stati Uniti. | en-it |
And I'm only showing you a little bit of this. | A ja vam pokazujem samo maleni dio toga. | en-hr |
What is astonishing about companies is that they scale sublinearly like biology, indicating that they're dominated, not by super-linear innovation and ideas; they become dominated by economies of scale. | Ono što je zadivljujuće o kompanijama jest da one skaliraju sublinerano poput biologije, indicirajući da su dominantne, ne po super-linearnim inovacijama i idejama; one postaju dominantne ekonomijom obujma. | en-hr |
In that interpretation, by bureaucracy and administration, and they do it beautifully, may I say. | W tej interpretacji, przez biurokrację i administrację, przez biurokrację i administrację, i dodam, że robią to świetnie. | en-pl |
So if you tell me the size of some company, some small company, I could have predicted the size of Walmart. | De modo que si me dicen el tamaño de una compañía pequeña, podría haber predicho el tamaño de Walmart. | en-es |
If it has this sublinear scaling, the theory says we should have sigmoidal growth. | Se tivesse esta escala sublinear, a teoria diz que deveríamos ter crescimento sigmoidal. | en-pt-br |
There's Walmart. Doesn't look very sigmoidal. | Walmart est là. Il n'a pas l'air très sigmoïde. | en-fr |
That's what we like, hockey sticks. | Voilà ce que nous aimons, des crosses de hockey. | en-fr |
But you notice, I've cheated, because I've only gone up to '94. | 但注意看,我在哄騙你們 因為這條線只顯示到1994年, | en-zh-tw |
Let's go up to 2008. | הבה נעלה ל-2008. | en-he |
That red line is from the theory. | Die rote Linie ist die Theorie. | en-de |
So if I'd have done this in 1994, I could have predicted what Walmart would be now. | Si lo hubiera hecho así en 1994, habría podido predecir cómo estaría Walmart ahora. | en-es |
And then this is repeated across the entire spectrum of companies. | E isto repete-se em todo o conjunto de empresas. | en-pt |
There they are. That's 23,000 companies. | Hier sind 23'000 Firmen gezeigt. | en-de |
They all start looking like hockey sticks, they all bend over, and they all die like you and me. | Wszystkie zaczynają wyglądać jak kije hokejowe, wszystkie zakrzywiają się w dół, i wszystkie umierają tak jak wy i ja. | en-pl |
Alright, I want to tell you how I got my superpowers through fatherhood. | Vou contar a vocês como eu adquiri superpoderes com a paternidade. | en-pt-br |
I was working a job I hated, OK? | 當時我厭惡我的工作。 | en-zh-tw |
And I don't know if anyone here ever worked a job they hated. | Van-e még itt valaki, aki utálja? | en-hu |
Has anyone here ever worked a job they hated? | ¿Alguien ha tenido un trabajo que odiara? | en-es |
(Laughter) OK, good, because I'm not alone and I have something to confess; I don't want you guys to judge me. | (צחוק) אוקיי, יופי, אז אני לא לבד ויש לי וידוי קטן; אני לא רוצה שתשפטו אותי. | en-he |
This feels like a safe space, is it a safe space? | 这里感觉还算安全， 这是一个安全的地方吧？ 听众：是啊。 | en-zh-cn |
Glen Henry: OK, I was working the job I hated, my manager and I were not getting along. | Seyirci: Evet. Tamam, nefret ettiğim bir işte çalışıyordum, patronum ve ben iyi geçinemiyorduk. | en-tr |
I was sitting in my car, looking in the rearview mirror, trying to figure out which friend I could call to call in a bomb threat, so I didn't have to go back in the building. | i myślałem, którego kumpla prosić, żeby zadzwonił do firmy i powiedział o podłożeniu bomby, żebym nie musiał wracać do pracy. | en-pl |
(Laughter) OK, this was having a lot of issues for me, I was having a lot of issues at my job and I'd come home every day from work and my wife would ask me the same question. | (ضحك) كان هذا يسبب لي الكثير من المشاكل، كان لدى مشاكل كثيرة في عملي وكنت أعود للمنزل كل يوم من العمل لتسألني زوجتي نفس السؤال. | en-ar |
And when you hate your job, this is the worst question anyone could ask you. | و وقتی از شغلتان متنفرید، این بدترین سوالی است که یک نفر میتواند از شما بپرسد. | en-fa |
She'd say, "Hey babe, how was your day?" | Ela dizia: "Amor, como foi seu dia?" | en-pt-br |
(Laughter) And I'd say, "Why you bringing up old stuff?" | （笑声） 然后我说， “你怎么老是旧事重提？” | en-zh-cn |
(Laughter) I just left it, I don't want to think about that place again. | （笑声） 我刚回家 ， 我不愿再想工作的地方。 | en-zh-cn |
See, we were spending about 40 percent of my income on childcare. | A keresetem 40%-át óvodára költöttük. | en-hu |
We had one child. | Tínhamos um filho. | en-pt |
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