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And I said, "How does that work?"
Le pregunté: "¿Cómo funciona eso?"
en-es
And he said, "Well there's 2,000 physicists on Wall Street now, and I'm one of them."
他说,”嗯,现在有2000名物理学家在华尔街工作, 我是其中之一。“
en-zh-cn
And I said, "What's the black box for Wall Street?"
I thashë, "Po për Wall Street-in ç'kuti të zezë ka?"
en-sq
And he said, "It's funny you ask that, because it's actually called black box trading.
", upitah ga. A on reče: "Zanimljivo je što to pitate, jer se to zapravo zove trgovanje iz crne kutije".
en-sr
And it's also sometimes called algo trading, algorithmic trading."
واحيانا يدعى " خوارزميات السوق " " خوارزميات السوق "
en-ar
And algorithmic trading evolved in part because institutional traders have the same problems that the United States Air Force had, which is that they're moving these positions -- whether it's Proctor & Gamble or Accenture, whatever -- they're moving a million shares of something through the market.
І алгоритмічна торгівля розвинулась частково через те, що у відомчих трейдерів виникають ті ж самі проблеми, які були у Військово-повітряних сил США, а саме, коли вони оперують цими торговими позиціями -- чи то Proctor & Gamble, чи Accenture, що завгодно -- вони проводять десь мільйон акцій через ринок.
en-uk
And if they do that all at once, it's like playing poker and going all in right away.
Et s'ils font ça d'un seul coup, c'est comme jouer au poker et tout miser tout de suite.
en-fr
You just tip your hand.
Tu doar îți înclini mâna.
en-ro
And so they have to find a way -- and they use algorithms to do this -- to break up that big thing into a million little transactions.
І тому вони мають знайти спосіб -- а для цього вони використовують алгоритми -- щоб розбити ту велику штуку на мільйон маленьких транзакцій.
en-uk
And the magic and the horror of that is that the same math that you use to break up the big thing into a million little things can be used to find a million little things and sew them back together and figure out what's actually happening in the market.
Và phần kỳ diệu và đáng sợ là đó là chính phép toán được dùng để chia nhỏ những thứ to lớn thành hàng triệu thứ nhỏ hơn cũng có thể dùng để tìm hàng triệu thứ nhỏ rồi vá chúng lại với nhau và tìm hiểu xem điều gì đang thực sự xảy ra trên thị trường.
en-vi
So if you need to have some image of what's happening in the stock market right now, what you can picture is a bunch of algorithms that are basically programmed to hide, and a bunch of algorithms that are programmed to go find them and act.
Also, wenn Sie irgendein Bild brauchen davon, was gerade auf dem Aktienmarkt passiert, können Sie sich einen Haufen Algorithmen vorstellen, die im Grunde dazu programmiert sind, Dinge zu verstecken und ein Haufen Algorithmen, die dafür programmiert, sind diese zu finden und zu handeln.
en-de
And all of that's great, and it's fine.
整個設計的真是太棒了,又精確。
en-zh-tw
And that's 70 percent of the United States stock market, 70 percent of the operating system formerly known as your pension, your mortgage.
A je to 70 % amerického akciového trhu, 70 % operačního systému, kterému se dřív říkalo penze nebo půjčka.
en-cs
And what could go wrong?
Ve ne ters gidebilir ki?
en-tr
What could go wrong is that a year ago, nine percent of the entire market just disappears in five minutes, and they called it the Flash Crash of 2:45.
O que poderia dar errado é que um ano atrás, 9 por cento do mercado inteiro simplesmente desapareceu por 5 minutos, chamaram isto de 'flash crash' (quebra relâmpago) das 2:45.
en-pt-br
All of a sudden, nine percent just goes away, and nobody to this day can even agree on what happened because nobody ordered it, nobody asked for it.
Đột nhiên, 9% biến mất, và tới ngày nay chưa một ai nhất trí về việc đã xảy ra, bởi vì không ai đặt trước, không ai yêu cầu nó xảy ra.
en-vi
Nobody had any control over what was actually happening.
Kimse aslında neler olduğuna dair bir kontrole sahip değildi.
en-tr
All they had was just a monitor in front of them that had the numbers on it and just a red button that said, "Stop."
他們只有 盯著面前的電腦螢幕, 電腦螢幕上的數字, 和一顆紅色按紐 上面寫著: 『停止』
en-zh-tw
And that's the thing, is that we're writing things, we're writing these things that we can no longer read.
و این چیزی است ، که ما چیزهایی می نویسیم ، این چیزها را می نویسیم که چندان قادر به خواندن آنها نیستیم.
en-fa
And we've rendered something illegible, and we've lost the sense of what's actually happening in this world that we've made.
Și am creat ceva ilizibil. Și am pierdut șirul a ceea ce se petrece în fapt în această lume pe care ne-am construit-o.
en-ro
And we're starting to make our way.
況且我們正開始邁向成功。
en-zh-tw
There's a company in Boston called Nanex, and they use math and magic and I don't know what, and they reach into all the market data and they find, actually sometimes, some of these algorithms.
V Bostonu je firma, která se jmenuje Nanex, a tam používají matematiku a magii a ještě nevím co, aby koukali do tržních dat a občas tam nacházeli některé tyhle algoritmy.
en-cs
And when they find them they pull them out and they pin them to the wall like butterflies.
כאשר הם מוצאים אותם, הם מוציאים אותם החוצה ומצמידים אותם לקיר כאילו היו פרפרים.
en-he
And they do what we've always done when confronted with huge amounts of data that we don't understand -- which is that they give them a name and a story.
A taky dělají, co jsme vždycky dělali, když jsme čelili obrovskému množství dat, kterým nerozumíme. Pojmenovávají je a vyprávějí jejich příběh.
en-cs
So this is one that they found, they called the Knife, the Carnival, the Boston Shuffler, Twilight.
Und das ist einer, den sie gefunden haben, sie nennen ihn das Messer der Karneval, der „Boston Shuffler“ Dämmerung.
en-de
And the gag is that, of course, these aren't just running through the market.
Dan yang lucu adalah ini tidak hanya ada di pasar modal.
en-id
You can find these kinds of things wherever you look, once you learn how to look for them.
Poți da de aceste lucruri oriunde te uiti, odată ce ai învățat cum să te uiți după ele.
en-ro
You can find it here: this book about flies that you may have been looking at on Amazon.
Na przykład tutaj: w tej książce o muchach, którą mogliście przeglądać na Amazonie.
en-pl
You may have noticed it when its price started at 1.7 million dollars.
你或许已经注意到 它的价格是一百七十万美元。
en-zh-cn
It's out of print -- still ...
這本書是絶版的......仍然絶版中。
en-zh-tw
(Laughter) If you had bought it at 1.7, it would have been a bargain.
(Rires) Si vous l'aviez acheté à 1,7 millions, vous auriez fait une affaire.
en-fr
A few hours later, it had gone up to 23.6 million dollars, plus shipping and handling.
Za pár hodin cena vyskočila na 23.6 miliónu dolarů plus poštovné a balné.
en-cs
And the question is: Nobody was buying or selling anything; what was happening?
E la domanda è: Nessuno comprava o vendeva niente; cosa stava succedendo?
en-it
And you see this behavior on Amazon as surely as you see it on Wall Street.
Je ziet dit soort gedrag net zo makkelijk op Amazon als op Wall Street.
en-nl
And when you see this kind of behavior, what you see is the evidence of algorithms in conflict, algorithms locked in loops with each other, without any human oversight, without any adult supervision to say, "Actually, 1.7 million is plenty."
そしてこのような挙動を見て分かるのは それがアルゴリズムの衝突から 生じたということです アルゴリズムが互いにループの中に捕らわれ 常識的な観点でそれを監視する 人間の目がなかったということです 「170万ドルはちと高くないか?」
en-ja
(Laughter) And as with Amazon, so it is with Netflix.
(Smích) A jako s Amazonem, stejné je to na Netflixu.
en-cs
And so Netflix has gone through several different algorithms over the years.
ف نيتفليكس Netflix قامت باستخدام العديد من الخوارزميات عبر السنين
en-ar
They started with Cinematch, and they've tried a bunch of others -- there's Dinosaur Planet; there's Gravity.
Jie pradėjo su Cinematch ir bandė daugybę kitų. Buvo Dinozaurų Planeta, buvo Gravitacija.
en-lt
They're using Pragmatic Chaos now.
Ora usano Pragmatic Chaos.
en-it
Pragmatic Chaos is, like all of Netflix algorithms, trying to do the same thing.
Pragmatic Chaos versucht wie alle Netflix Algorithmen, die gleiche Sache zu tun.
en-de
It's trying to get a grasp on you, on the firmware inside the human skull, so that it can recommend what movie you might want to watch next -- which is a very, very difficult problem.
Он пытается разобраться в вас, в прошивке внутри черепа, для того чтобы рекомендовать фильм, который вы можете захотеть посмотреть следующим — а это очень, очень трудная проблема.
en-ru
But the difficulty of the problem and the fact that we don't really quite have it down, it doesn't take away from the effects Pragmatic Chaos has.
但问题和事实的难点 在于我们没有真的掌握它, 它没有消除 Pragmatic Chaos的影响。
en-zh-cn
Pragmatic Chaos, like all Netflix algorithms, determines, in the end, 60 percent of what movies end up being rented.
'ความยุ่งเหยิงเชิงปฏิบัติ' ก็เหมือนกับอัลกอริทึมของเน็ตฟลิคซ์อื่นๆ ที่ในตอนท้ายสุดเป็นตัวบ่งว่า ร้อยละ 60 ของหนังที่ถูกเช่าไปคืออะไร
en-th
So one piece of code with one idea about you is responsible for 60 percent of those movies.
Այսպիսով, կոդի մի կտորը որի կենտրոնում քո մասին գաղափարն է, պատասխանատու է այդ ֆիլմերի 60 տոկոսի համար:
en-hy
But what if you could rate those movies before they get made?
もし映画の評価を 作る前にできたとしたらどうでしょう?
en-ja
Wouldn't that be handy?
Non sarebbe utile?
en-it
Well, a few data scientists from the U.K. are in Hollywood, and they have "story algorithms" -- a company called Epagogix.
Nekoliko informacionih naučnika iz Velike Britanije je u Holivudu, i imalu algoritme za scenarije -- kompanija koja se zove Epagogix.
en-sr
And you can run your script through there, and they can tell you, quantifiably, that that's a 30 million dollar movie or a 200 million dollar movie.
que, a partir del teu guió et poden dir, quantitativament, si serà una pel·lícula de 30 milions de dòlars o una de 200 milions.
en-ca
And the thing is, is that this isn't Google.
Masalahnya ini bukanlah Google.
en-id
This isn't information.
To nije informacija.
en-sr
These aren't financial stats; this is culture.
Ezek nem pénzügyi statisztikák; hanem kultúra.
en-hu
And what you see here, or what you don't really see normally, is that these are the physics of culture.
Ką jūs čia matote, ar ko čia paprastai nematote, yra kultūros fizika.
en-lt
And if these algorithms, like the algorithms on Wall Street, just crashed one day and went awry, how would we know?
I si aquests algoritmes, igual que els de Wall Street, produissin un crash, com ho sabríem?
en-ca
What would it look like?
como eles se pareceriam?
en-pt-br
And they're in your house. They're in your house.
A jsou ve vašem domě. Ve vašem domě.
en-cs
These are two algorithms competing for your living room.
Két olyan algoritmus, ami a nappalidért versenyez!
en-hu
These are two different cleaning robots that have very different ideas about what clean means.
Đó là 2 con robot lau chùi khác nhau có nhiều quan niệm rất khác nhau về định nghĩa của sự sạch sẽ.
en-vi
And you can see it if you slow it down and attach lights to them, and they're sort of like secret architects in your bedroom.
Và bạn có thể thấy điều đó nếu bạn quay chậm và gắn đèn lên chúng. Và chúng như kiểu những kiến trúc sư bí ẩn trong phòng ngủ của bạn.
en-vi
And the idea that architecture itself is somehow subject to algorithmic optimization is not far-fetched.
و این نظریه که خود معماری به نوعی موضوع بهینه سازی الگوریتمی است دور از ذهن نیست.
en-fa
It's super-real and it's happening around you.
यह असली है और यह आप के आसपास हो रहा है.
en-hi
You feel it most when you're in a sealed metal box, a new-style elevator; they're called destination-control elevators.
این را بیشتر احساس می کنید زمانیکه درون یک جعبه فلزی محکم شده هستید، یک بالابر سبک جدید ، آنها بالابر های مقصد کنترل نامیده می شود.
en-fa
These are the ones where you have to press what floor you're going to go to before you get in the elevator.
اینها از آنهایی هستند که شما باید فشار دهید که به کدام طبقه می خواهید بروید قبل از اینکه به داخل بالابر بروید.
en-fa
And it uses what's called a bin-packing algorithm.
Il utilise ce qu'on appelle un algorithme de conditionnement de boîtes.
en-fr
So none of this mishegas of letting everybody go into whatever car they want.
Այսպիսով, սա թույլ չի տալիս, որ ով ուր ասես կարողանա գնալ:
en-hy
Everybody who wants to go to the 10th floor goes into car two, and everybody who wants to go to the third floor goes into car five.
想去10楼的人进入二号电梯, 想去三层的人进入五号电梯。
en-zh-cn
And the problem with that is that people freak out.
Das Problem dabei ist, dass die Leute ausflippen.
en-de
People panic.
İnsanlar panikliyor.
en-tr
And you see why. You see why.
As pessoas entram em pânico. E vemos porquê.
en-pt
It's because the elevator is missing some important instrumentation, like the buttons.
Es kommt daher, dass dem Aufzug ein paar wichtige Steuerungsmerkmale fehlen, zum Beispiel Knöpfe.
en-de
(Laughter) Like the things that people use.
(Kahkaha) İnsanların kullandığı türden şeyler.
en-tr
All it has is just the number that moves up or down and that red button that says, "Stop."
כל מה שיש עכשיו זה המספר שנע מעלה מטה והכפתור האדום הנותן פקודה לעצור.
en-he
And this is what we're designing for.
而這是我們正在設計的,
en-zh-tw
We're designing for this machine dialect.
Estamos projetando para o dialeto desta máquina.
en-pt-br
And how far can you take that? How far can you take it?
우리는 이런식으로 얼마나 더 나갈 수 있을까요?
en-ko
You can take it really, really far.
Ви можете зайти таким чином дуже, дуже далеко.
en-uk
So let me take it back to Wall Street.
خب ، بگذارید آنرا به وال استریت برگردانم.
en-fa
Because the algorithms of Wall Street are dependent on one quality above all else, which is speed.
เนื่องจากอัลกอริทึมของวอลล์สตรีท ขึ้นอยู่กับคุณลักษณะหนึ่งเป็นพิเศษ นั่นก็คือ ความเร็ว
en-th
And they operate on milliseconds and microseconds.
और वे क्षंड के लाखवे या करोड़वे हिस्से पर कार्य करते हैं.
en-hi
And just to give you a sense of what microseconds are, it takes you 500,000 microseconds just to click a mouse.
Και για να σας δώσω μία αίσθηση του τι είναι τα μικροδευτερόλεπτα, σας παίρνει 500.000 μικροδευτερόλεπτα για να πατήσετε το πλήκτρο ενός ποντικιού.
en-el
But if you're a Wall Street algorithm and you're five microseconds behind, you're a loser.
Mas, se você é um algoritmo da Wall Street e está 5 microssegundos atrasado, você é um fracassado.
en-pt-br
So if you were an algorithm, you'd look for an architect like the one that I met in Frankfurt who was hollowing out a skyscraper -- throwing out all the furniture, all the infrastructure for human use, and just running steel on the floors to get ready for the stacks of servers to go in -- all so an algorithm could get close to the Internet.
だから皆さんがアルゴリズムなら 私がフランクフルトで出会った建築家のような人間を探すことでしょう 彼は高層ビルを空洞にしています 家具のような人間が使うためのインフラはすべて取り去って 床を鉄骨で補強し サーバの山を積み上げられるようにするのです それもすべて アルゴリズムが インターネットに近づけるようにするためです
en-ja
And you think of the Internet as this kind of distributed system.
عليكم ان تنظروا الى مخدمات الانترنت كانظمة توزيع
en-ar
And of course, it is, but it's distributed from places.
और हां, यह है, लेकिन कुछ स्थानों से वितरित है.
en-hi
In New York, this is where it's distributed from: the Carrier Hotel located on Hudson Street.
В Нью Йорку ось звідки вона розподіляєтсья: Готель Carrier, що знаходиться на Гудзон-стріт.
en-uk
And this is really where the wires come right up into the city.
และนี่เป็นสถานที่ซึ่งส่งกระจายสายเชื่อมสู่เมือง
en-th
And the reality is that the further away you are from that, you're a few microseconds behind every time.
Дело в том, что с каждым удалением отсюда теряются несколько микросекунд.
en-ru
These guys down on Wall Street, Marco Polo and Cherokee Nation, they're eight microseconds behind all these guys going into the empty buildings being hollowed out up around the Carrier Hotel.
वॉल स्ट्रीट पर ये लोग, मार्को पोलो और चेरोकी नेशन, वे आठ मिक्रोसेकांड्स पीछे हैं इन से खाली इमारतों में जा कैरियर होटल के आसपास .
en-hi
And that's going to keep happening.
이런 일은 앞으로도 계속 생길겁니다.
en-ko
We're going to keep hollowing them out, because you, inch for inch and pound for pound and dollar for dollar, none of you could squeeze revenue out of that space like the Boston Shuffler could.
─這些建築物將會持續被掏空─ 因為每一英寸 每一磅和每一(美)元 你們沒人能從那個空間距離強擠出收益 像『波士頓通勤者』那般。
en-zh-tw
But if you zoom out, if you zoom out, you would see an 825-mile trench between New York City and Chicago that's been built over the last few years by a company called Spread Networks.
이제 줌아웃을 해보지요. 줌아웃을 해보면, 뉴욕시와 시카고를 연결하기 위해 스프레드 네트워크라는 회사가 지난 몇년에 걸쳐 공사하고 있는 825 마일 길이의 기반시설 공사 전경을 볼 수 있지요.
en-ko
This is a fiber optic cable that was laid between those two cities to just be able to traffic one signal 37 times faster than you can click a mouse -- just for these algorithms, just for the Carnival and the Knife.
Este es un cable de fibra óptica colocado entre las dos ciudades solamente para hacer pasar una señal 37 veces más rápido que el clic de un mouse, solo para estos algoritmos, el Carnaval y el Cuchillo.
en-es
And when you think about this, that we're running through the United States with dynamite and rock saws so that an algorithm can close the deal three microseconds faster, all for a communications framework that no human will ever know, that's a kind of manifest destiny; and we'll always look for a new frontier.
Und wenn man darüber nachdenkt, dass wir uns durch die Vereinigten Staaten bohren, mit Dynamit und Steinsägen, damit ein Algorithmus einen Deal drei Mikrosekunden schneller abschließen kann, alles für ein Kommunikationsnetzwerk, das kein Mensch kennen wird, da manifestiert sich das Schicksal und es wird immer nach einer neuen Grenze streben.
en-de
Unfortunately, we have our work cut out for us.
К сожалению, наша работа уже предопределена.
en-ru
This is just theoretical.
Aceasta este doar teorie.
en-ro
This is some mathematicians at MIT.
Ezt néhány MIT-s matematikus találta ki.
en-hu
And the truth is I don't really understand a lot of what they're talking about.
Et la vérité est que une grande partie de ce qu'ils disent est incompréhensible pour moi.
en-fr-ca
It involves light cones and quantum entanglement, and I don't really understand any of that.
它涉及光锥体和量子纠缠, 这些我真的都不太明白。
en-zh-cn
But I can read this map, and what this map says is that, if you're trying to make money on the markets where the red dots are, that's where people are, where the cities are, you're going to have to put the servers where the blue dots are to do that most effectively.
그렇지만 이 지도는 제가 이해하죠. 이 지도가 보여주는 것은 도시가 있는 증권시장이 있는 빨간 점들에서 돈을 벌려면 푸른 점들에 서버를 설치하는 것이 가장 효율적이라는 것입니다.
en-ko
And the thing that you might have noticed about those blue dots is that a lot of them are in the middle of the ocean.
Y habrán notado que los puntos azules están mayormente en medio del océano.
en-es
So that's what we'll do: we'll build bubbles or something, or platforms.
אז זה מה שנעשה. נבנה מין שלפוחיות או משהו, או רציפים.
en-he