english
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I'm not trying to solve the Middle East problem.
Nem a közel-keleti kérdést akarom megoldani!
en-hu
The complexity here is unbelievable.
ان التعقيد الموجود هنا لا يمكن تصديقه
en-ar
And just a piece of context -- the societies in which our brains evolved had about 300 products and services.
و حال یک مقایسه-- جامعه ای که فکر ما در آن رشد کرده حدود ۳۰۰ محصول دلرد.
en-fa
You could count them in five minutes.
Tos varēja saskaitīt piecās minūtēs.
en-lv
So this is the complexity of the world that surrounds us.
Սա է մեզ շրջապատող աշխարհի բարդությունը:
en-hy
This perhaps is why we find the God complex so tempting.
Може би за това божественият комплекс така ни изкушава.
en-bg
We tend to retreat and say, "We can draw a picture, we can post some graphs, we get it, we understand how this works."
אנחנו נוטים לסגת ולומר, "אנחנו יכולים לצייר תמונה, להציג כמה גרפים, תפסנו, אנחנו מבינים איך זה עובד."
en-he
And we don't.
ואנחנו לא.
en-he
We never do.
Kita tidak pernah mengerti.
en-id
Now I'm not trying to deliver a nihilistic message here.
Acum eu nu incerc sa comunic aici un mesaj nihilistic.
en-ro
I'm not trying to say we can't solve complicated problems in a complicated world.
Nuk po provoj të them se nuk zgjidhim dot probleme të komplikuara të një bote të komplikuar.
en-sq
We clearly can.
Açıkça yapabiliriz.
en-tr
But the way we solve them is with humility -- to abandon the God complex and to actually use a problem-solving technique that works.
Բայց եղանակները, որով մենք դրանք լուծում ենք մարդկային են -- եթե մոռանանք Աստծո բարդույթի մասին, որպեսզի օգտագործենք խնդիրներ լուծելու միջոցներ, որոնք աշխատում են:
en-hy
And we have a problem-solving technique that works.
A mamy technikę rozwiązywania problemów, która jest skuteczna.
en-pl
Now you show me a successful complex system, and I will show you a system that has evolved through trial and error.
ถ้าคุณมี ระบบที่ซับซ้อนที่ประสบความสำเร็จ ผมจะแสดงระบบหนึ่ง ที่วิวัฒนาการมาด้วยการลองผิดลองถูก
en-th
Here's an example.
یک مثال‌ش اینه.
en-fa
This baby was produced through trial and error.
Това бебе е резултат на проби и грешки.
en-bg
I realize that's an ambiguous statement.
Saprotu, ka tas ir neskaidrs apgalvojums.
en-lv
Maybe I should clarify it.
Mungkin saya harus memperjelas.
en-id
This baby is a human body: it evolved.
Ez a baba egy emberi test: kifejlődött.
en-hu
What is evolution?
تکامل چیست؟
en-fa
Over millions of years, variation and selection, variation and selection -- trial and error, trial and error.
Tokom miliona godina, varijacija i selekcija, varijacija i selekcija -- pokušaj i greška, pokušaj i greška.
en-sr
And it's not just biological systems that produce miracles through trial and error.
Եվ խոսքը միայն կենսաբանական համակարգերին չի վերաբերվում, որ հրաշքներ են կերտում փորձարկման և ձախողման մեթոդով:
en-hy
You could use it in an industrial context.
Vous pourriez l'utiliser dans un contexte industriel.
en-fr
So let's say you wanted to make detergent.
Да кажем, че искате да направите прах за пране.
en-bg
Let's say you're Unilever and you want to make detergent in a factory near Liverpool.
你是联合利华 你要在利物浦旁边的一家工厂生产清洁剂
en-zh-cn
How do you do it?
Come farlo?
en-it
Well you have this great big tank full of liquid detergent.
Sie haben einen riesigen Tank voll mit flüssigem Waschmittel.
en-de
You pump it at a high pressure through a nozzle.
אתם מזרימים אותו בלחץ גבוה דרך זרבובית.
en-he
You create a spray of detergent.
مما يصنع رغوة من ذلك المسحوق
en-ar
Then the spray dries. It turns into powder.
Sprej uschne. Přemění se v prášek.
en-cs
It falls to the floor.
掉在地板上,
en-zh-cn
You scoop it up. You put it in cardboard boxes.
Pokupite ga i stavite u kartonske kutije.
en-hr
You sell it at a supermarket.
و در سوپرمارکتها به فروش می رسانید.
en-fa
You make lots of money.
คุณทำเงินได้มหาศาล
en-th
How do you design that nozzle?
Come progettate l'erogatore?
en-it
It turns out to be very important.
Cela s'avère très important.
en-fr
Now if you ascribe to the God complex, what you do is you find yourself a little God.
Αν ενστερνίζεστε το Θεϊκό Σύνδρομο, αυτό που κάνετε είναι να σας βρείτε ένα μικρό Θεό.
en-el
You find yourself a mathematician; you find yourself a physicist -- somebody who understands the dynamics of this fluid.
Vous dénichez un mathématicien, un physicien, quelqu'un qui comprend la dynamique de ce fluide.
en-fr
And he will, or she will, calculate the optimal design of the nozzle.
Եվ նա կհաշվարկեր քթիկի համար օպտիմալ կառուցվածքը:
en-hy
Now Unilever did this and it didn't work -- too complicated.
יוניליוור עשו את זה וזה לא עבד - יותר מדי מורכב.
en-he
Even this problem, too complicated.
Даже эта проблема, слишком сложная.
en-ru
But the geneticist Professor Steve Jones describes how Unilever actually did solve this problem -- trial and error, variation and selection.
Men genetikprofessor Steve Jones beskriver hur Unilever faktiskt löste det här problemet -- trial and error, variation och selektion.
en-sv
You take a nozzle and you create 10 random variations on the nozzle.
Paņemiet sprauslu un uz labu laimi izveidojiet 10 sprauslas variācijas.
en-lv
You try out all 10; you keep the one that works best.
Изпробвате всичките 10 и запазвате тази, която работи най-добре.
en-bg
You create 10 variations on that one.
Vytvoříte deset variací té jedné.
en-cs
You try out all 10. You keep the one that works best.
Vyskúšate všetkých 10. Ponecháte si najlepšie fungujúcu.
en-sk
You try out 10 variations on that one.
Se ensayan 10 variaciones de esta última.
en-es
You see how this works, right?
Je snapt hoe dit werkt, juist.
en-nl
And after 45 generations, you have this incredible nozzle.
经过45轮测试后 你们就得到了这个很好的喷嘴管口
en-zh-cn
It looks a bit like a chess piece -- functions absolutely brilliantly.
チェスの駒に似た感じです 全くすばらしい性能を発揮します
en-ja
We have no idea why it works, no idea at all.
どうしてうまく行くのか 全然わかりません 見当もつきません
en-ja
And the moment you step back from the God complex -- let's just try to have a bunch of stuff; let's have a systematic way of determining what's working and what's not -- you can solve your problem.
当你不再认为自己有万能神力 而是开始尝试一些东西 用一个系统的办法来决定什么办法行什么办法不行 你就能解决你的问题
en-zh-cn
Now this process of trial and error is actually far more common in successful institutions than we care to recognize.
Ce procédé par tâtonnements successifs est en fait bien plus répandu dans les institutions qui fonctionnent que nous daignons le reconnaitre.
en-fr
And we've heard a lot about how economies function.
Hemos oído bastante sobre cómo funcionan las economías.
en-es
The U.S. economy is still the world's greatest economy.
美國的經濟體仍是世界的龍頭。
en-zh-tw
How did it become the world's greatest economy?
چگونه به بزرگترین اقتصاد دنیا تبدیل شد؟
en-fa
I could give you all kinds of facts and figures about the U.S. economy, but I think the most salient one is this: ten percent of American businesses disappear every year.
Mogao bih vam dati razne činjenice i cifre o američkoj ekonomiji, ali mislim da je ova najupadljivija: 10 procenata američkih firmi nestane svake godine.
en-sr
That is a huge failure rate.
Đó là một tỉ lệ thất bại khổng lồ.
en-vi
It's far higher than the failure rate of, say, Americans.
É bem mais alta do que a taxa de falha, digamos, de americanos.
en-pt-br
Ten percent of Americans don't disappear every year.
그건 미국인보다 훨씬 더 높은 실패율이지요.
en-ko
Which leads us to conclude American businesses fail faster than Americans, and therefore American businesses are evolving faster than Americans.
このことから アメリカでは事業は人よりも早く消え去るので 事業の進化の速度が 人よりも速いことがわかります
en-ja
And eventually, they'll have evolved to such a high peak of perfection that they will make us all their pets -- (Laughter) if, of course, they haven't already done so.
Au final, elles auront évolué jusqu'à un tel degré de perfection qu'elles feront de nous leurs animaux domestiques. (Rires) Si, bien sûr, tel n'est pas déjà le cas.
en-fr
I sometimes wonder.
- Інколи мене це цікавить.
en-uk
But it's this process of trial and error that explains this great divergence, this incredible performance of Western economies.
Nhưng đó là quá trình của phép thử và sai sót giải thích cho sự phân kỳ tuyệt vời này, thành quả phi thường này của các nền kinh tế phương Tây.
en-vi
It didn't come because you put some incredibly smart person in charge.
ไม่ใช่เพราะเรามีคนที่ฉลาดที่สุดคอยควบคุม
en-th
It's come through trial and error.
זה קרה דרך נסייה וטעייה.
en-he
Now I've been sort of banging on about this for the last couple of months, and people sometimes say to me, "Well Tim, it's kind of obvious.
Վերջին մի քանի ամիսը ես գլուխ էի ջարդում այս ամենի վերաբերյալ, և մարդիկ երբեմն հարցնում էին ինձ. «Լավ Թիմ, սա ակնհայտ է:
en-hy
Obviously trial and error is very important.
Oczywiście próby i błędy są bardzo ważne.
en-pl
Obviously experimentation is very important.
Dihet që eksperimentimi është shumë i rëndësishëm.
en-sq
Now why are you just wandering around saying this obvious thing?"
De áruld már el, minek futkosol itt körbe ezt a nyilvánvaló dolgot hirdetendő?"
en-hu
So I say, okay, fine.
Y respondo, está bien.
en-es
You think it's obvious?
Vous pensez que c'est évident ?
en-fr
I will admit it's obvious when schools start teaching children that there are some problems that don't have a correct answer.
Začnu to brát za samozřejmé, až školy začnou učit děti, že existují i úlohy, které nemají správnou odpověď.
en-cs
Stop giving them lists of questions every single one of which has an answer.
Cuando dejen de darles cantidades de preguntas todas con sus respuestas.
en-es
And there's an authority figure in the corner behind the teacher's desk who knows all the answers.
Un stūrī, aiz skolotāja galda ir autoritatīva persona, kas zina visas atbildes.
en-lv
And if you can't find the answers, you must be lazy or stupid.
如果你找不到答案 你不是懒惰就是愚蠢
en-zh-cn
When schools stop doing that all the time, I will admit that, yes, it's obvious that trial and error is a good thing.
כשבתי הספר יפסיקו לעשות את זה כל הזמן, אני אודה שכן, מובן מאליו שנסייה וטעייה זה דבר טוב.
en-he
When a politician stands up campaigning for elected office and says, "I want to fix our health system.
当政客们站出来 竞选公职时 他们说:“我想治理我们的健康系统
en-zh-cn
I want to fix our education system.
Chcem napraviť náš vzdelávací systém.
en-sk
I have no idea how to do it.
แต่ผมไม่มีวิธีที่แน่นอนหรอก
en-th
I have half a dozen ideas.
Έχω μισή ντουζίνα ιδέες.
en-el
We're going to test them out. They'll probably all fail.
که می خواهیم آنها را بیازماییم، و احتمالاً همه آنها شکست خواهند خورد.
en-fa
Then we'll test some other ideas out.
و سپس ایده های دیگر را آزمایش خواهیم کرد.
en-fa
We'll find some that work. We'll build on those.
เราจะหาสิ่งที่ใช้ได้ แล้วสร้างมันขึ้นมา
en-th
We'll get rid of the ones that don't." -- when a politician campaigns on that platform, and more importantly, when voters like you and me are willing to vote for that kind of politician, then I will admit that it is obvious that trial and error works, and that -- thank you.
Chúng ta sẽ loại bỏ những cái mà không hiệu quả. Khi một nhà chính trị vận động trên nền tảng đó, và quan trọng hơn cả, khi những người bầu cử như bạn và tôi sẵn sàng bỏ phiếu cho kiểu chính trị gia như vậy, thì khi đó tôi sẽ thừa nhận rằng nó quá rõ ràng để phép thử và sai sót vận hành, và như thế - cảm ơn.
en-vi
(Applause) Until then, until then I'm going to keep banging on about trial and error and why we should abandon the God complex.
e të tjera si këto -- faleminderit. (Duartrokitje) Deri atëherë, deri kur të vijë ajo ditë do të vazhdoj të flas për provat dhe gabimet dhe pse duhet të heqim dorë nga kompleksi i Zotit.
en-sq
Because it's so hard to admit our own fallibility.
Omdat het zo moeilijk is om onze eigen feilbaarheid toe te geven.
en-nl
It's so uncomfortable.
Điều đó thật khó chịu.
en-vi
And Archie Cochrane understood this as well as anybody.
Archie Cochrane begreep dit als geen ander.
en-nl
There's this one trial he ran many years after World War II.
Um ensaio que dirigiu muitos anos depois da Segunda Guerra Mundial
en-pt
He wanted to test out the question of, where is it that patients should recover from heart attacks?
Han ville undersöka frågan om var patienter borde återhämta sig från hjärtattacker.
en-sv
Should they recover in a specialized cardiac unit in hospital, or should they recover at home?
Sollen sie sich in einer speziellen Herzstation im Krankenhaus zu erholen, oder besser zu Hause?
en-de
All the cardiac doctors tried to shut him down.
Tüm kardiyoloji doktorları onu susturmaya çalıştılar.
en-tr
They had the God complex in spades.
Ei aveau complexul de a te crede Dumnezeu la extrem.
en-ro
They knew that their hospitals were the right place for patients, and they knew it was very unethical to run any kind of trial or experiment.
Znali su da su njihove bolnice pravo mjesto za pacijente i znali su da je vrlo neetički bilo što pokušavati ili provoditi pokuse.
en-hr
Nevertheless, Archie managed to get permission to do this.
Néanmoins, Archie a réussi à obtenir la permission de le faire.
en-fr
He ran his trial.
Previedol svoje pokusy.
en-sk
And after the trial had been running for a little while, he gathered together all his colleagues around his table, and he said, "Well, gentlemen, we have some preliminary results.
Después de que el experimento llevaba un tiempo, reunió a todos sus colegas en su oficina y les dijo: "Señores, tenemos unos resultados preliminares.
en-es
They're not statistically significant.
이건 통계적으로 의미있는 결과는
en-ko