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But still, experiencing the new means exploring a very peculiar space, the space of what could be, the space of the possible, the space of possibilities. | Toujours est-il que vivre le nouveau revient à explorer un endroit étrange, un espace de ce qui pourrait être, un espace de possibles, un espace de possibilités. | en-fr |
It's a very weird space, so I'll try to get you through this space. | إنه فضاء غريب، لذا دعوني أحاول أن أرشدكم في رحلة استكشافه. | en-ar |
So it could be a physical space. | 它可以是某个物理空间。 | en-zh-cn |
So in this case, for instance, novelty could be climbing Machu Picchu for the first time, as I did in 2016. | Neste caso, por exemplo, a novidade poderia ser escalar Machu Picchu pela primeira vez, como fiz em 2016. | en-pt-br |
It could be a conceptual space, so acquiring new information, making sense of it, in a word, learning. | 也可以是理论上的空间， 如获取新的信息， 简而言之，就是学习。 | en-zh-cn |
It could be a biological space. | Це може бути біологічний простір. | en-uk |
I mean, think about the never-ending fight of viruses and bacteria with our immune system. | Pensate alla perenne battaglia contro virus e batteri del nostro sistema immunitario. | en-it |
And now comes the bad news. | 現在壞消息來了。 | en-zh-tw |
We are very, very bad at grasping this space. | Bizler bu alanı anlamakta son derece kötüyüz. | en-tr |
Think of it. Let's make an experiment. | 想想這一點。咱們來做個實驗。 | en-zh-tw |
Try to think about all the possible things you could do in the next, say, 24 hours. | Pensate a tutto quello che potreste fare nelle prossime 24 ore. | en-it |
Here the key word is "all." | Le mot crucial est « tout. | en-fr |
Of course you can conceive a few options, like having a drink, writing a letter, also sleeping during this boring talk, if you can. | Sin duda pueden imaginar algunas opciones, como tomar una copa, escribir una carta, también dormir durante esta aburrida charla, si pueden. | en-es |
But not all of them. | 그러나 전부는 불가능하죠. | en-ko |
So think about an alien invasion, now, here, in Milan, or me -- I stopped thinking for 15 minutes. | Nghĩ về 1 cuộc xâm lược từ người ngoài hành tinh, bây giờ, ở đây, Milan, hay như tôi - tôi đã ngừng suy nghĩ trong 15 phút. | en-vi |
So it's very difficult to conceive this space, but actually we have an excuse. | Es muy difícil imaginar este espacio, pero en realidad tenemos una excusa. | en-es |
So it's not so easy to conceive this space because we are trying to conceive the occurrence of something brand new, so something that never occurred before, so we don't have clues. | 不容易实现的原因是 我们都尝试着 去发现一些绝对的“新”， 一些以前从未发生的事情， 所以我们找不到任何线索。 | en-zh-cn |
A typical solution could be looking at the future with the eyes of the past, so relying on all the time series of past events and hoping that this is enough to predict the future. | よくある解決法は 過去によって培った目で 未来を見るということです 過去に起きた すべてのことを頼りにし それが将来の予知に 十分であることを祈ります | en-ja |
But we know this is not working. | Nhưng chúng ta biết điều này không hiệu quả. | en-vi |
For instance, this was the first attempt for weather forecasts, and it failed. | 就跟首次播报天气失败了一样。 | en-zh-cn |
And it failed because of the great complexity of the underlying phenomenon. | Ça n'a pas marché à cause de la grande complexité du phénomène sous jacent. | en-fr |
So now we know that predictions had to be based on modeling, which means creating a synthetic model of the system, simulating this model and then projecting the system into the future through this model. | 이제 우린 예측엔 모델링이 필요함을 압니다. 모델링은 시스템의 인공 모델을 만드는 일이죠. 모델을 시범동작해서 모델을 통해 시스템을 미래로 투사하죠. | en-ko |
And now we can do this in a lot of cases with the help of a lot of data. | Aujourd'hui nous pouvons faire ça pour de nombreux cas, à l'aide de nombreuses données. | en-fr |
Looking at the future with the eye of the past could be misleading also for machines. | 과거의 눈으로 미래를 보면 기계도 틀릴 때가 있죠. | en-ko |
Think about it. | Бодоод үздээ. | en-mn |
Now picture yourself for a second in the middle of the Australian Outback. | 少しの間 オーストラリアの荒野に いるところを思い描いてみましょう | en-ja |
You stand there under the sun. | Bạn đứng đó dưới ánh mặt trời. | en-vi |
So you see something weird happening. | Notate che sta succedendo qualcosa di strano. | en-it |
The car suddenly stops very, very far from a kangaroo crossing the street. | 自動車が急停止し そのずっと向こうで カンガルーが道を横切ります | en-ja |
You look closer and you realize that the car has no driver. | Vous regardez de plus près et vous réalisez qu'il n'y a personne dans la voiture. | en-fr |
It is not restarting, even after the kangaroo is not there anymore. | Não volta a funcionar, mesmo depois que o canguru não está mais lá. | en-pt-br |
So for some reasons, the algorithms driving the car cannot make sense of this strange beast jumping here and there on the street. | Por alguna razón, los algoritmos que conducen el auto no entienden a esta extraña bestia que salta de aquí para allá en la calle. | en-es |
So it just stops. | 于是它就停下了。 | en-zh-cn |
Now, I should tell you, this is a true story. | 这是个真实的故事。 | en-zh-cn |
It happened a few months ago to Volvo's self-driving cars in the middle of the Australian Outback. | Aconteceu há alguns meses com um carro autônomo da Volvo no meio do deserto australiano. | en-pt-br |
(Laughter) It is a general problem, and I guess this will affect more and more in the near future artificial intelligence and machine learning. | (笑) これは一般的な問題で 近い将来 人工知能や機械学習に ますます影響することでしょう | en-ja |
It's also a very old problem, I would say 17th century, but I guess now we have new tools and new clues to start solving it. | Este de asemenea o problemă foarte veche, aș spune, din secolul XVII, dar bănuiesc că acum avem unelte și indicii noi pentru soluţionarea sa. | en-ro |
So let me take a step back, five years back. | لذا دعوني أعود خطوة للوراء، لخمس سنوات. | en-ar |
Italy. Rome. Winter. | Італія. Рим. | en-uk |
So the winter of 2012 was very special in Rome. | Iarna. Iarna din 2012 a fost foarte specială pentru Roma. | en-ro |
Rome witnessed one of the greatest snowfalls of its history. | Roma testemunhou uma das maiores nevascas de sua história. | en-pt-br |
That winter was special also for me and my colleagues, because we had an insight about the possible mathematical scheme -- again, possible, possible mathematical scheme, to conceive the occurrence of the new. | その冬は私と同僚にとっても 特別でした 可能性のある数学的手法について ひらめきを得たからです 可能性がまた出て来ましたが 新しいものの出現を理解するための 数学的手法です | en-ja |
I remember that day because it was snowing, so due to the snowfall, we were blocked, stuck in my department, and we couldn't go home, so we got another coffee, we relaxed and we kept discussing. | Îmi amintesc acea zi deoarece ningea, iar din cauza zăpezii, eram blocați în departamentul meu, și nu puteam merge acasă, deci am luat încă o cafea, ne-am relaxat și am continuat să discutăm. | en-ro |
But at some point -- maybe not that date, precisely -- at some point we made the connection between the problem of the new and a beautiful concept proposed years before by Stuart Kauffman, the adjacent possible. | 忽然之间——准确地说， 可能并不在那段小憩的时间—— 在某个时间点，我们在 发现“新”，与斯图亚特 · 考夫曼 曾经提出的一个美妙的 理论之间建立起了一种联系， 即临界的可能性。 | en-zh-cn |
So the adjacent possible consists of all those things. | L'adiacente possibile è costituito da tutte queste cose -- | en-it |
It could be ideas, it could be molecules, it could be technological products that are one step away from what actually exists, and you can achieve them through incremental modifications and recombinations of the existing material. | potrebbero essere idee, molecole, prodotti tecnologici -- che sono un solo passo avanti rispetto a ciò che già esiste, e le si può ottenere attraverso modifiche progressive e combinazioni di materiali esistenti. | en-it |
So for instance, if I speak about the space of my friends, my adjacent possible would be the set of all friends of my friends not already my friends. | 比如，如果我說到我朋友的空間， 我的相鄰可能就是「我朋友的朋友中 還沒成為我朋友的那些人」 所形成的集合。 | en-zh-tw |
I hope that's clear. | J'espère que c'est clair. | en-fr |
But now if I meet a new person, say Briar, all her friends would immediately enter my adjacent possible, pushing its boundaries further. | Тепер, якщо я зустрічаю нову людину, скажімо Брайар, всі її друзі негайно увійдуть до кола можливої суміжності, ще більше розширивши його межі. | en-uk |
So if you really want to look from the mathematical point of view -- I'm sure you want -- you can actually look at this picture. | لذا إذا أردتم حقًا النظر من وجهة نظر رياضية بحته وأنا متأكد أنكم تريدون ذلك... يمكنكم النظر حقًا إلى هذه الصورة. | en-ar |
So suppose now this is your universe. | Supongan que este es su universo. | en-es |
I know I'm asking a lot. | Știu că cer multe. | en-ro |
I mean, this is your universe. Now you are the red spot. | 麻烦大家把自己置身于这张图，这个 红点，就是我们现在所处的位置。 | en-zh-cn |
And the green spot is the adjacent possible for you, so something you've never touched before. | І зелена цятка для вас - це можливість суміжності, те, чого ви ніколи до цього не торкались. | en-uk |
So you do your normal life. | هذا شيء في حياتكم اليومية. | en-ar |
You move. You move in the space. | Рухаєтеся. Ви рухаєтеся в просторі. | en-uk |
You have a drink. You meet friends. You read a book. | Vous prenez un verre, voyez des amis ou lisez un livre. | en-fr |
At some point, you end up on the green spot, so you meet Briar for the first time. | 그러다 초록 점에 갑니다. 처음 브라이어를 만납니다. | en-ko |
And what happens? | К чему это приводит? | en-ru |
So what happens is there is a new part, a brand new part of the space, becoming possible for you in this very moment, even without any possibility for you to foresee this before touching that point. | 새 부분이 생깁니다. 우주의 새로운 부분. 이 순간에만 가능하죠. 이 점에 도달하기 전에는 절대 예상할 수 없죠. | en-ko |
And behind this there will be a huge set of points that could become possible at some later stages. | Au delà, se développe un énorme groupe de points qui pourront devenir des possibles ultérieurement. | en-fr |
So you see the space of the possible is very peculiar, because it's not predefined. | لذا أنتم ترون الآن أن عالم وفضاء الإمكانيات غريب جدًا، لأنه ليس محدد مسبقًا. | en-ar |
It's not something we can predefine. | Nu este ceva ce noi putem predefini. | en-ro |
It's something that gets continuously shaped and reshaped by our actions and our choices. | Es algo que es continuamente formado y remodelado por nuestras acciones y nuestras elecciones. | en-es |
So we were so fascinated by these connections we made -- scientists are like this. | 見付けたこの繋がりに 私たちはとても魅了されました 科学者はそういうものです | en-ja |
And based on this, we conceived our mathematical formulation for the adjacent possible, 20 years after the original Kauffman proposals. | 根據這個， 我們想出了相鄰可能的數學方程式， 在考夫曼最初 提出這概念的 20 年後。 | en-zh-tw |
In our theory -- this is a key point -- I mean, it's crucially based on a complex interplay between the way in which this space of possibilities expands and gets restructured, and the way in which we explore it. | 私たちの理論はー これは重要な点ですがー 二者の間の複雑な相互作用に 基づいています 可能領域が拡大し 再構築されていくことと その中で私たちが 探索していくことの間の 相互作用です | en-ja |
After the epiphany of 2012, we got back to work, real work, because we had to work out this theory, and we came up with a certain number of predictions to be tested in real life. | Sau buổi khai nhãn năm 2012, chúng tôi quay lại với công việc thực sự, bởi vì chúng tôi phải nghiên cứu lý thuyết này và chúng tôi đi đến một số dự đoán nhất định để đem thử nghiệm trong đời thực. | en-vi |
Of course, we need a testable framework to study innovation. | 물론 혁신을 연구하도록 실험가능한 체계도 필요했죠. | en-ko |
So let me drive you across a few predictions we made. | Deci permiteți-mi să vă arăt câteva predicții pe care le-am făcut. | en-ro |
The first one concerns the pace of innovation, so the rate at which you observe novelties in very different systems. | 第一个是创新的步调， 即不同的体系中 发现“新”的速度。 | en-zh-cn |
So our theory predicts that the rate of innovation should follow a universal curve, like this one. | Notre théorie prédit que le taux d'innovation suit en principe une courbe universelle, comme celle-ci. | en-fr |
This is the rate of innovation versus time in very different conditions. | Aceasta este rata inovației versus timpul în condiții foarte diferite. | en-ro |
And somehow, we predict that the rate of innovation should decrease steadily over time. | Bir şekilde yeniliğin hızının zamanla azalacağını tahmin ediyoruz. | en-tr |
So somehow, innovation is predicted to become more difficult as your progress over time. | 由于某些限制，随着我们行动的增加 发现“新”会变得更加困难。 | en-zh-cn |
It's neat. It's interesting. It's beautiful. We were happy. | 这个系统很巧妙， 有趣且迷人，我们都很高兴。 | en-zh-cn |
But the question is, is that true? | Noi am fost fericiți. Dar întrebarea este: e adevărat? | en-ro |
Of course we should check with reality. | 물론 현실을 점검해야 했죠. | en-ko |
So we went back to reality and we collected a lot of data, terabytes of data, tracking innovation in Wikipedia, Twitter, the way in which we write free software, even the way we listen to music. | Então, voltamos à realidade e coletamos terabytes de dados, rastreando a inovação na Wikipedia, no Twitter, o modo como escrevemos software gratuito, ou mesmo como escutamos música. | en-pt-br |
I cannot tell you, we were so amazed and pleased and thrilled to discover that the same predictions we made in the theory were actually satisfied in real systems, many different real systems. | 이론 예측과 현실계가 맞아떨어졌을 때 얼마나 놀라고 기쁘고 짜릿했는지 설명할 수가 없군요. 여러 현실계에서요. | en-ko |
We were so excited. | Eram entuziasmați. | en-ro |
Of course, apparently, we were on the right track, but of course, we couldn't stop, so we didn't stop. | Era ovvio, apparentemente, che eravamo sul percorso giusto, ma ovviamente a questo punto non potevamo fermarci. Così non ci fermammo. | en-it |
So we kept going on, and at some point we made another discovery that we dubbed "correlated novelties." | 我們持續下去， 在某個時點，我們有了另一個發現， 我們稱之為「相關新奇」。 | en-zh-tw |
It's very simple. | Той е много прост. | en-bg |
So I guess we all experience this. | Acho que todos nós passamos por isso. | en-pt-br |
So you listen to "Suzanne" by Leonard Cohen, and this experience triggers your passion for Cohen so that you start frantically listening to his whole production. | كلكم تستمعون إلى "سوزان" تأدية "ليونارد كوهن" وتثير هذه التجربة مشاعركم لأغاني "كوهن" وتبدأون على نحو جنوني تستمعون لألبوم "كوهن" بأكمله. | en-ar |
And then you realize that Fabrizio De André here recorded an Italian version of "Suzanne," and so on and so forth. | Sonra, Fabrizio De André'nin "Suzanne" şarkısını İtalyanca söylediğini fark ediyorsunuz, böyle böyle gidiyor bu. | en-tr |
So somehow for some reason, the very notion of adjacent possible is already encoding the common belief that one thing leads to another in many different systems. | Então, por alguma razão, a noção exata do possível adjacente já está expressando a crença comum de que uma coisa leva à outra em muitos sistemas diferentes. | en-pt-br |
But the reason why we were thrilled is because actually we could give, for the first time, a scientific substance to this intuition and start making predictions about the way in which we experience the new. | 那么我们为什么那么高兴呢， 因为第一次，我们可以把这种直觉 科学地实体化， 并且开始对 体验“新”的方式进行预测。 | en-zh-cn |
So novelties are correlated. | Donc, les nouveautés sont en corrélation. | en-fr |
They are not occurring randomly. | Rastlantı sonucu ortaya çıkmıyorlardı. | en-tr |
And this is good news, because it implies that impossible missions might not be so impossible after all, if we are guided by our intuition, somehow leading us to trigger a positive chain reaction. | Iar asta este o veste bună, pentru că implică faptul că misiunile imposibile s-ar putea să nu fie chiar așa de imposibile, dacă suntem ghidați de intuiția noastră, ghidându-ne cumva spre a declanșa o reacție pozitivă în lanț. | en-ro |
But there is a third consequence of the existence of the adjacent possible that we named "waves of novelties." | ولكن هناك نتيجه ثالثة من تواجد "القريب الممكن" أطلقنا عليه مصطلح "أمواج التجديد". | en-ar |
So just to make this simple, so in music, without waves of novelties, we would still be listening all the time to Mozart or Beethoven, which is great, but we don't do this all the time. | Отже спростимо це. Наприклад, в музиці, без хвиль новинок, ми б і досі постійно слухали Моцарта або Бетховена, що чудово, але ми цього не робимо постійно. | en-uk |
We also listen to the Pet Shop Boys or Justin Bieber -- well, some of us do. | 우린 펫샵 보이즈나 저스틴 비버도 듣죠. | en-ko |
(Laughter) So we could see very clearly all of these patterns in the huge amounts of data we collected and analyzed. | (Gülüşmeler) Bu modellerin hepsini topladığımız ve analiz ettiğimiz devasa büyüklükteki verilerde açıkça görebilirdik. | en-tr |
For instance, we discovered that popular hits in music are continuously born, you know that, and then they disappear, still leaving room for evergreens. | 比如，我們發現， 音樂中的流行熱門歌曲 不斷產生出來，你們知道這點， 接著它們就消失了，留下空間 給不褪流行的長青歌曲。 | en-zh-tw |
So somehow waves of novelties ebb and flow while the tides always hold the classics. | Отже, якимось чином нові жанри з'являються і зникають, та кожен їх сезон завжди має місце для класики. | en-uk |
There is this coexistence between evergreens and new hits. | işte burada unutulmayanlar ve yeni hitler bir arada bulunuyor. | en-tr |
Not only our theory predicts these waves of novelties. | Teorimiz sadece yenilik dalgalarını öngörmüyor. | en-tr |
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