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In the history of the past 50 years, the smoking risk shows how a model changes, and it also shows how an industry fights against a model it doesn't like. | 흡연의 위험에 대한 지난 50년의 역사는 리스크 모델이 어떻게 바뀌었으며 담배업계가 그들이 좋아하지 않는 모델을 어떻게 싸워 왔는지를 보여줍니다. | en-ko |
Compare that to the secondhand smoke debate -- probably about 20 years behind. | Srovnejte to s debatou o pasivním kouření -- asi před 20 lety. | en-cs |
Think about seat belts. | Sillni në mend rripat e sigurimit. | en-sq |
When I was a kid, no one wore a seat belt. | عندما كنت طفلا، لم يرتدي أحد حزام الأمان. | en-ar |
Nowadays, no kid will let you drive if you're not wearing a seat belt. | Sot, asnjë fëmijë nuk do t'ju lejojë të ngisni makinën po qe se nuk keni vendosur rripin e sigurimit. | en-sq |
Compare that to the airbag debate, probably about 30 years behind. | Krahasojeni këtë me debatin për airbag-un -- këtu e 30 vjetë të shkuar ndoshta. | en-sq |
All examples of models changing. | Krejt këta si shembuj ndryshimi modelesh. | en-sq |
What we learn is that changing models is hard. | आपण शिकतोय की प्रतिरूपे बदलणे कठीण आहे. | en-mr |
Models are hard to dislodge. | Modellen zijn lastig los te wrikken. Als ze overeenkomen met je gevoel, | en-nl |
If they equal your feelings, you don't even know you have a model. | vous ne savez même pas que vous avez un modèle. | en-fr |
And there's another cognitive bias I'll call confirmation bias, where we tend to accept data that confirms our beliefs and reject data that contradicts our beliefs. | En daar is nog een cognitief vooroordeel dat ik het bevestigingsvooroordeel zal noemen, waar we neigen om de gegevens te accepteren die onze overtuigingen bevestigen© en de gegevens die onze overtuigingen tegenspreken af te keuren. | en-nl |
So evidence against our model, we're likely to ignore, even if it's compelling. | Jadi bukti yang menyanggah model kita, lebih sering kita abaikan, meski beralasan. | en-id |
It has to get very compelling before we'll pay attention. | 那些证据必须非常非常令人信服，我们才会去关注 | en-zh-cn |
New models that extend long periods of time are hard. | Особенно сложны новые модели с долгосрочными последствиями. Глобальное потепление — отличный пример. | en-ru |
Global warming is a great example. | Мы становимся двоечниками | en-ru |
We're terrible at models that span 80 years. | בנוגע למודלים שמשתרעים על פני 80 שנה. | en-he |
We can do "to the next harvest." | Wir können die nächste Ernte machen. | en-de |
We can often do "until our kids grow up." | Podemos fazer isso até nossos filhos crescerem. | en-pt-br |
But "80 years," we're just not good at. | لكن ٨٠ سنة، نحن ليسنا جيدين بهذا. | en-ar |
So it's a very hard model to accept. | Takže to je dost těžký model na přijmutí. | en-cs |
We can have both models in our head simultaneously -- that kind of problem where we're holding both beliefs together, the cognitive dissonance. | Може два модела да съжителстват едновременно в главата ни, а има и друг проблем, при който вярваме едновременно в две неща или имаме когнитивен дисонанс в главата ни. Накрая, | en-bg |
Eventually, the new model will replace the old model. | новият модел ще замени стария. | en-bg |
Strong feelings can create a model. | Τα ισχυρά συναισθήματα μπορούν να δημιουργήσουν ένα μοντέλο. | en-el |
September 11 created a security model in a lot of people's heads. | Der 11. September schaffte ein solches Sicherheitsmodell in den Köpfen vieler Leute. | en-de |
Also, personal experiences with crime can do it, personal health scare, a health scare in the news. | Επίσης, οι προσωπικές εμπειρίες με το έγκλημα μπορούν να το δημιουργήσουν, ο ατομικός φόβος για την υγεία, ένας υγειονομικός φόβος στις ειδήσεις. | en-el |
You'll see these called "flashbulb events" by psychiatrists. | Són el que els psiquiatres anomenen esdeveniments flash. | en-ca |
They can create a model instantaneously, because they're very emotive. | Létrehozhatnak egy modellt azonnal, mert nagyon érzelmileg színezettek. | en-hu |
So in the technological world, we don't have experience to judge models. | Jadi di dunia yang sarat teknologi kita tidak berpengalaman untuk menilai model. | en-id |
And we rely on others. We rely on proxies. | Така ние се доверяваме на други. Доверяваме се на заместници, | en-bg |
And this works, as long as it's the correct others. | Я имею в виду, что это работает с компетентным посредником. | en-ru |
We rely on government agencies to tell us what pharmaceuticals are safe. | Bazohemi te agjencitë qeveritare që na tregojnë se cilat barna janë pa zarar. | en-sq |
I flew here yesterday. | Ieri sono giunto qui in volo. | en-it |
I didn't check the airplane. | без да проверя лично дали самолетът е в изправност. | en-bg |
I relied on some other group to determine whether my plane was safe to fly. | Tôi đã dựa vào vài nhóm khác để xác định liệu máy bay có an toàn để bay | en-vi |
We're here, none of us fear the roof is going to collapse on us, not because we checked, but because we're pretty sure the building codes here are good. | Estamos aqui, e nenhum de nós tem medo que o telhado caia em nossas cabeças, mas não é porque nós fizemos alguma inspeção, mas porque temos certeza que podemos confiar nos códigos de construção daqui. | en-pt-br |
It's a model we just accept pretty much by faith. | Es ist ein Modell, dass wir einfach akzeptieren größtenteils durch Glauben. Und das ist in Ordnung. | en-de |
Now, what we want is people to get familiar enough with better models, have it reflected in their feelings, to allow them to make security trade-offs. | Was wir wollen ist das Leute sich mit besseren Modellen anfreuden -- sie mit ihren Gefühlen reflektiert haben -- um ihnen zu erlauben Sicherheitsabwägungen zu machen. | en-de |
When these go out of whack, you have two options. | Kur këto shpërputhen, keni dy mundësi. | en-sq |
One, you can fix people's feelings, directly appeal to feelings. | Erstens, sie können die Gefühle der Leute richten, direkt an Gefühle appelieren. | en-de |
It's manipulation, but it can work. | זוהי מניפולציה, אבל זה יכול לעבוד. | en-he |
The second, more honest way is to actually fix the model. | Ο δεύτερος, πιο τίμιος, τρόπος είναι όντως να διορθώσεις το μοντέλο. | en-el |
Change happens slowly. | 改變是很緩慢的 | en-zh-tw |
The smoking debate took 40 years -- and that was an easy one. | Il dibattito sul fumo è durato 40 anni, e quello era uno facile. | en-it |
Some of this stuff is hard. | Certains de ces trucs sont difficiles. Je veux dire | en-fr |
Really, though, information seems like our best hope. | наша единственная надежда — информированность. | en-ru |
And I lied. | A klamal som. | en-sk |
Remember I said feeling, model, reality; reality doesn't change? | تذكرون عندما قلت أن الإحساس، النموذج، الحقيقة. قلت أن الحقيقة لا تتغير. | en-ar |
It actually does. | 사실 현실은 변합니다. 우리는 기술이 지배하는 세상에 살기 때문에 | en-ko |
We live in a technological world; reality changes all the time. | realita se pořád proměňuje. | en-cs |
So we might have, for the first time in our species: feeling chases model, model chases reality, reality's moving -- they might never catch up. | Per primera vegada en la història de la nostra espècie, podem trobar-nos amb el cas en què la sensació persegueix el model, el model persegueix la realitat, la realitat es mou; potser mai no s'enxamparan. | en-ca |
We don't know. | Δεν γνωρίζουμε. | en-el |
But in the long term, both feeling and reality are important. | Tapi dalam jangka panjang baik perasaan maupun realita itu penting. | en-id |
And I want to close with two quick stories to illustrate this. | Dhe dua ta mbyll me dy histori të shkurtra për ilustrim. | en-sq |
1982 -- I don't know if people will remember this -- there was a short epidemic of Tylenol poisonings in the United States. | 1982'de -- insanların bunu hatırlayacaklarından emin değilim -- Amerika'da Tylenol zehirlenmesinden dolayı kısa süreli bir salgın vardı. Korkunç bir hikaye. | en-tr |
It's a horrific story. | Dikush mori një shishe Tylenol, | en-sq |
Someone took a bottle of Tylenol, put poison in it, closed it up, put it back on the shelf, someone else bought it and died. | Ktoś wziął butelkę Tylenolu, włożył do niej truciznę, zamknął, i odłożył na półkę. Ktoś inny kupił ją i umarł. To przeraziło ludzi. | en-pl |
There were a couple of copycat attacks. | Houve um monte de ataques parecidos. | en-pt-br |
There wasn't any real risk, but people were scared. | No hi havia cap risc real, però la gent estava espantada. | en-ca |
And this is how the tamper-proof drug industry was invented. | En dit is hoe in de medicijnwereld de anti-knoei-industrie is gestart. | en-nl |
Those tamper-proof caps? That came from this. | ती ढवळाढवळ-रोधक टोपणे, यातूनच आली. | en-mr |
It's complete security theater. | To jest całkowicie teatr bezpieczeństwa. | en-pl |
As a homework assignment, think of 10 ways to get around it. | Come compito a casa, pensate a 10 modi per aggirarlo. | en-it |
I'll give you one: a syringe. | Egyet megadok: a fecskendő. | en-hu |
But it made people feel better. | 即使没那么安全，但至少人们感觉更安全了 | en-zh-cn |
It made their feeling of security more match the reality. | Hizo que su sensación de seguridad se pareciera más a la realidad. | en-es |
Last story: a few years ago, a friend of mine gave birth. | Son hikaye, bir kaç yıl önce, bir arkadaşım doğum yaptı. | en-tr |
I visit her in the hospital. | Je suis allé la voir à l'hôpital. | en-fr |
It turns out, when a baby's born now, they put an RFID bracelet on the baby, a corresponding one on the mother, so if anyone other than the mother takes the baby out of the maternity ward, an alarm goes off. | Kiderült, hogy most amikor egy csecsemő születik, tesznek egy RFID-es karkötőt a csecsemőre [RFID = rádiófrekvenciás azonosító] a párját meg az anyára teszik, tehát ha bárki más az anyán kivül kivinné a csecsemőt a szülészetről, megszólal a riasztó. Azt mondtam: "Nos, ez elegáns. | en-hu |
I wonder how rampant baby snatching is out of hospitals." | Rozmýšľam, aké rozšírené je kradnutie bábätiek v našich nemocniciach." | en-sk |
I go home, I look it up. | Eve gittim, araştırdım. | en-tr |
It basically never happens. | V podstatě se to neděje. | en-cs |
(Laughter) But if you think about it, if you are a hospital, and you need to take a baby away from its mother, out of the room to run some tests, you better have some good security theater, or she's going to rip your arm off. | Ale když se nad tím zamyslíte, pokud jste lékařem a potřebujete matce dítě vzít z pokoje na nějaké testy, tak byste měli raději mít nějaké bezpečnostní divadlo, nebo vám matka utrhne ruku. | en-cs |
(Laughter) So it's important for us, those of us who design security, who look at security policy -- or even look at public policy in ways that affect security. | (Smiech) Takže je to pre nás dôležité, pre nás, ktorí dizajnujeme bezpečnosť, ktorí riešime bezpečnostnú politiku, alebo riešime verejnú politiku spôsobmi, ktoré ovplyvňujú bezpečnosť. | en-sk |
It's not just reality; it's feeling and reality. | To nie jest tylko rzeczywistość, to uczucie i rzeczywistość. | en-pl |
What's important is that they be about the same. | 重要なのは 両者がほぼ同じであることです 感覚が実態に則していれば 安全に関して | en-ja |
It's important that, if our feelings match reality, we make better security trade-offs. | κάνουμε καλύτερες ανταλλαγές ασφαλείας. Σας ευχαριστώ. | en-el |
We have all probably wondered how great minds achieved what they achieved, right? | 우리 모두 궁금한 적 있죠. 위대한 지성은 어떻게 위대함을 얻어냈는지. | en-ko |
And the more astonishing their achievements are, the more we call them geniuses, perhaps aliens coming from a different planet, definitely not someone like us. | І чим дивовижніші їх досягнення, тим більшими геніями ми їх називаємо, навіть інопланетянами, які прибули до нас з іншої планети, але точно не такими, як ми. | en-uk |
But is that true? | Ma è proprio così? | en-it |
So let me start with an example. | Să încep cu un exemplu. | en-ro |
You all know the story of Newton's apple, right? OK. | Усі знають історію про яблуко Ньютона? | en-uk |
Is that true? Probably not. | 那是真的嗎？可能不是。 | en-zh-tw |
Still, it's difficult to think that no apple at all was there. | それでも 「リンゴ」が何もなかったとは 考えにくいです | en-ja |
I mean some stepping stone, some specific conditions that made universal gravitation not impossible to conceive. | Je veux dire par là un tremplin, des conditions particulières qui ont rendu la gravitation universelle ne plus être inconcevable. | en-fr |
And definitely this was not impossible, at least for Newton. | 這個肯定不是不可能的， 至少對牛頓而言。 | en-zh-tw |
It was possible, and for some reason, it was also there, available at some point, easy to pick as an apple. | 这是可能的， 因为一些原因，它就在那里， 像够到那个苹果一样容易， | en-zh-cn |
Here is the apple. | 触手可及。 | en-zh-cn |
And what about Einstein? | アインシュタインはどうでしょう？ | en-ja |
Was relativity theory another big leap in the history of ideas no one else could even conceive? | 相对论是历史上又一大 新思想的飞跃。 除了爱因斯坦， 就没人可以提出了吗？ | en-zh-cn |
Or rather, was it again something adjacent and possible, to Einstein of course, and he got there by small steps and his very peculiar scientific path? | Ou melhor, foi novamente algo adjacente e possível, para Einstein, é claro, e ele chegou lá passo a passo, por seu caminho científico muito peculiar? | en-pt-br |
Of course we cannot conceive this path, but this doesn't mean that the path was not there. | 물론 저희는 이 길을 상상 못하지만 길이 없다는 소리는 아니죠. | en-ko |
So all of this seems very evocative, but I would say hardly concrete if we really want to grasp the origin of great ideas and more generally the way in which the new enters our lives. | Tüm bunlar çağrıştırıcı gibi görünse de büyük fikirlerin kökenini, daha genel olarak "yeni" olanın hayatımıza girişini anlatmak istesek bunu çok zor somutlaştırabilirim. | en-tr |
As a physicist, as a scientist, I have learned that posing the right questions is half of the solution. | 물리학자이자 과학자로서 전 해답의 절반은 알맞은 질문임을 배웠습니다. | en-ko |
But I think now we start having a great conceptual framework to conceive and address the right questions. | Але я думаю, що зараз ми починаємо створення чудової концептуальної основи для засвоєння та вирішення правильних питань. | en-uk |
So let me drive you to the edge of what is known, or at least, what I know, and let me show you that what is known could be a powerful and fascinating starting point to grasp the deep meaning of words like novelty, innovation, creativity perhaps. | 那么现在，让我带大家 进入身边所熟悉的领域， 或至少，是我熟悉的。 让我来说明一下，从熟悉的领域开始 去感知新奇，创新，或者创造 这类词语更深层的含义， 是一个多么好的起点。 | en-zh-cn |
So we are discussing the "new," and of course, the science behind it. | Entonces, estamos discutiendo lo "nuevo", y por supuesto, la ciencia detrás de ello. | en-es |
The new can enter our lives in many different ways, can be very personal, like I meet a new person, I read a new book, or I listen to a new song. | يستطيع الجديد أن يدخل حياتنا بطرق كثيرة ومختلفة، ويمكن أن تكون على نحو شخصي جدًا، مثلما ألتقي بشخص جديد، أو عندما أقرأ كتابا جديدًا أو أستمع إلى أغنية جديدة. | en-ar |
Or it could be global, I mean, something we call innovation. | Або це може бути глобальним, тим, що ми називаємо інноваціями. | en-uk |
It could be a new theory, a new technology, but it could also be a new book if you're the writer, or it could be a new song if you're the composer. | 可以是新理论，新技术， 同样也可以是一本新书， 前提是你是个作家， 也可以是一首新歌， 如果你是个作曲家。 | en-zh-cn |
In all of these global cases, the new is for everyone, but experiencing the new can be also frightening, so the new can also frighten us. | Dans tous ces cas, le nouveau arrive à tous le monde. Toutefois, l'expérience du nouveau peut aussi s'avérer effrayante, c'est pourquoi il arrive que la nouveauté nous fasse peur. | en-fr |
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