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parallel-talks-deduplicated

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That problem is solved.
Das Problem ist gelöst.
en-de
What about the problem of picking up a chess piece, dexterously manipulating it and putting it back down on the board?
Как насчёт задачи подбора шахматной фигуры, ловкого манипулирования ею и опускания обратно на доску?
en-ru
If you put a five year-old child's dexterity against the best robots of today, the answer is simple: the child wins easily.
Если вы возьмёте ловкость 5-летного ребёнка против лучших роботов на сегодня, ответ простой: ребёнок легко выигрывает.
en-ru
There's no competition at all.
Tu uopšte i nema takmičenja.
en-sr
Now why is that top problem so easy and the bottom problem so hard?
¿Por qué entonces el problema de arriba es tan sencillo y el de abajo tan difícil?
en-es
One reason is a very smart five year-old could tell you the algorithm for that top problem -- look at all possible moves to the end of the game and choose the one that makes you win.
Jedným z dôvodov je, že bystré 5-ročné dieťa by prišlo na algoritmus k hornému problému – zváži všetky možné ťahy až do konca partie a vyberie tie, vďaka ktorým vyhrá.
en-sk
So it's a very simple algorithm.
Tehát ez egy igen egyszerű algoritmus.
en-hu
Now of course there are other moves, but with vast computers we approximate and come close to the optimal solution.
Por supuesto que hay otros movimientos, pero con la mayoría de las computadoras nos acercamos a la solución óptima.
en-es
When it comes to being dexterous, it's not even clear what the algorithm is you have to solve to be dexterous.
Кога станува збор за рачната флексибилност, дури и не знаеме кој алгоритам треба да го решите.
en-mk
And we'll see you have to both perceive and act on the world, which has a lot of problems.
Je moet de wereld zowel waarnemen als erop reageren. Dat geeft een hoop problemen.
en-nl
But let me show you cutting-edge robotics.
No, pokazat ću vam najsuvremeniju robotiku.
en-hr
Now a lot of robotics is very impressive, but manipulation robotics is really just in the dark ages.
Зараз багато роботів дуже вражає, але роботи які можуть маніпулювати були іще в темні століття.
en-uk
So this is the end of a Ph.D. project from one of the best robotics institutes.
Ovo je proizašlo iz jednog projekta za doktorat iz jednog od najboljih instituta robotike.
en-hr
And the student has trained this robot to pour this water into a glass.
И студентът е научил робота да сипва вода в чаша.
en-bg
It's a hard problem because the water sloshes about, but it can do it.
Это сложная задача, поскольку вода хлюпает, но робот справляется.
en-ru
But it doesn't do it with anything like the agility of a human.
Aber es ist kaum mit der Beweglichkeit eines Menschen vergleichbar.
en-de
Now if you want this robot to do a different task, that's another three-year Ph.D. program.
違う動作をさせたいと考えるとすると それはまた3年間の博士号プロジェクトが必要です
en-ja
There is no generalization at all from one task to another in robotics.
در روباتیک کلا نمیشه بین کارها و و فعالیت ها کارهای مشترکی بوجود آورد و کاری رو به کار دیگه ای تعمیم داد. در روباتیک کلا نمیشه بین کارها و و فعالیت ها کارهای مشترکی بوجود آورد و کاری رو به کار دیگه ای تعمیم داد.
en-fa
Now we can compare this to cutting-edge human performance.
Můžeme to však porovnat se špičkovým výkonem u lidí.
en-cs
So what I'm going to show you is Emily Fox winning the world record for cup stacking.
سأقدّم لكم (إيميلي فوكس) أثناء فوزها بالرقم القياسي العالمي لتكديس الكؤوس.
en-ar
Now the Americans in the audience will know all about cup stacking.
Die Amerikaner im Publikum wissen sicher alles über das Becherstapeln.
en-de
It's a high school sport where you have 12 cups you have to stack and unstack against the clock in a prescribed order.
herşeyi bilecek. Bu bir lise sporudur. 12 fincanı belirlenmiş bir sırayla zamana karşı dizip sonra kaldırıyorsunuz.
en-tr
And this is her getting the world record in real time.
כאן זו היא בזמן קביעת השיא העולמי.
en-he
(Laughter) (Applause) And she's pretty happy.
(Nevetés) (Taps) És milyen boldog!
en-hu
We have no idea what is going on inside her brain when she does that, and that's what we'd like to know.
Nemamo nikakvu ideju šta joj se dešava u mozgu dok to radi, a to je ono što bismo hteli da znamo.
en-sr
So in my group, what we try to do is reverse engineer how humans control movement.
Vì thế trong nhóm của tôi, những điều chúng tôi cố gắng làm là khám phá ra cơ chế con người điều khiển chuyển động của mình.
en-vi
And it sounds like an easy problem.
Isto até parece um problema simples.
en-pt
You send a command down, it causes muscles to contract.
Je stuurt een commando dat de spieren doet samentrekken.
en-nl
Your arm or body moves, and you get sensory feedback from vision, from skin, from muscles and so on.
这样手臂或躯干就会运动 然后能够获得从视觉，皮肤和肌肉和其他地方获得感官回馈
en-zh-cn
The trouble is these signals are not the beautiful signals you want them to be.
Vấn đề ở đây là những tín hiệu này không phải là những tín hiệu hay như bạn mong đợi.
en-vi
So one thing that makes controlling movement difficult is, for example, sensory feedback is extremely noisy.
Vì thế một điều khiến việc điều khiển chuyể động khó khăn là, ví dụ, phản hồi giác quan thường gây nhiễu.
en-vi
Now by noise, I do not mean sound.
حالا منظورم از نویز، صدا و صوت نیست.
en-fa
We use it in the engineering and neuroscience sense meaning a random noise corrupting a signal.
Używamy tego pojęcia w inżynierii i neurobiologii mając na myśli hałas zakłócający sygnał.
en-pl
So the old days before digital radio when you were tuning in your radio and you heard "crrcckkk" on the station you wanted to hear, that was the noise.
Ai vecchi tempi prima della radio digitale quando sintonizzavate la radio e sentivate "crrrrckkk" sulla frequenza che volevate sentire, quello era il rumore.
en-it
But more generally, this noise is something that corrupts the signal.
Všeobecne je ale šum niečo, čo ruší signál.
en-sk
So for example, if you put your hand under a table and try to localize it with your other hand, you can be off by several centimeters due to the noise in sensory feedback.
На пример, ако ја ставите раката под маса и се обидете да ја лоцирате со другата рака, може да промашите за неколку сантиметри поради бучавата во сетилниот фидбек.
en-mk
Similarly, when you put motor output on movement output, it's extremely noisy.
Slično tome, i u prenosu motornog signala u sam pokret, ima mnogo smetnji.
en-sr
Forget about trying to hit the bull's eye in darts, just aim for the same spot over and over again.
fica muito ruidosa. Esqueçam tentar acertar no centro do alvo, visem apenas o mesmo ponto, vezes sem conta.
en-pt
You have a huge spread due to movement variability.
Sie verfügen über ein große Spanne infolge der Variabilität der Bewegung.
en-de
And more than that, the outside world, or task, is both ambiguous and variable.
Y mas aún, en el mundo exterior o en una tarea, son ambos ambiguos y variables.
en-es
The teapot could be full, it could be empty.
Ovaj bi čajnik mogao biti i pun i prazan.
en-hr
It changes over time.
mení sa v závislosti od času.
en-sk
So we work in a whole sensory movement task soup of noise.
بنابراین ما در یک بلبشوی پر از نویز فعالیت های حرکتی مراکز حساس عمل میکنیم.
en-fa
Now this noise is so great that society places a huge premium on those of us who can reduce the consequences of noise.
Bây giờ tín hiệu nhiễu này lớn đến nỗi xã hội đặt một phần thưởng khổng lồ cho ai trong chúng ta có thể giảm được các hậu quả của nhiễu.
en-vi
So if you're lucky enough to be able to knock a small white ball into a hole several hundred yards away using a long metal stick, our society will be willing to reward you with hundreds of millions of dollars.
Ako imate dovoljno sreće da ubacite belu lopticu u rupu udaljenu nekoliko stotina metara, koristeći dugački, metalni štap, naše društvo će vas rado nagraditi stotinama miliona dolara.
en-sr
Now what I want to convince you of is the brain also goes through a lot of effort to reduce the negative consequences of this sort of noise and variability.
Bây giờ, những gì tôi cố gắng thuyết phục các bạn là bộ não cũng phải trải qua rất nhiều nỗ lực để giảm thiểu các hậu quả xấu của loại tín hiệu nhiễu và tính biến đổi này.
en-vi
And to do that, I'm going to tell you about a framework which is very popular in statistics and machine learning of the last 50 years called Bayesian decision theory.
כדי לעשות זאת, אספר לכם על מערכת שהיא מאוד נפוצה בסטטיסטיקה ובלימודי מכונה ב-50 השנים האחרונות והנקראת תיאוריה בייסיאנית להחלטות.
en-he
And it's more recently a unifying way to think about how the brain deals with uncertainty.
Y actualmente, hay una manera unificadora de pensar cómo el cerebro aborda lo incierto.
en-es
And the fundamental idea is you want to make inferences and then take actions.
І основна ідея в тому, що ви хочете спочатку зробити висновок та потім виконати певні дії.
en-uk
So let's think about the inference.
Donc pensons aux inférences.
en-fr
You want to generate beliefs about the world.
Je wilt overtuigingen over de wereld ontwikkelen.
en-nl
So what are beliefs?
那么什么是信念？
en-zh-cn
Beliefs could be: where are my arms in space?
אמונות יכולות להיות: היכן נמצאות זרועותיי בחלל?
en-he
Am I looking at a cat or a fox?
我看見的是一隻貓還是一隻狐狸？
en-zh-tw
But we're going to represent beliefs with probabilities.
こういった信念を私たちは確率をもってみています
en-ja
So we're going to represent a belief with a number between zero and one -- zero meaning I don't believe it at all, one means I'm absolutely certain.
我們要將信念表達為 介於 0 到 1 之間的數字 -- 0 代表我完全不相信，1 則表示我絕對相信。
en-zh-tw
And numbers in between give you the gray levels of uncertainty.
A čísla medzi tým vyjadrujú sivé medzistupne neistoty.
en-sk
And the key idea to Bayesian inference is you have two sources of information from which to make your inference.
Основната идея в теорията на Бейс е, че имате два източника на информация, от които да направите своето заключение.
en-bg
You have data, and data in neuroscience is sensory input.
Veriniz var, ve nörolojide veri duyusal girdidir.
en-tr
So I have sensory input, which I can take in to make beliefs.
Es gibt also Sinnesreize, aus denen sich Ansichten ergeben können.
en-de
But there's another source of information, and that's effectively prior knowledge.
Але є й інше джерело інформації, і воно ефективніше-це попередній досвід.
en-uk
You accumulate knowledge throughout your life in memories.
Συσωρεύετε γνώση από όλη σας τη ζωή σε αναμνήσεις.
en-el
And the point about Bayesian decision theory is it gives you the mathematics of the optimal way to combine your prior knowledge with your sensory evidence to generate new beliefs.
Và quan điểm về thuyết quyết định Bayes là nó mang lại cho bạn cơ sở toán học của phương thức tối ưu để kết hợp kiến thức sẵn có với bằng chứng về cảm giác của bạn để phát sinh ra niềm tin mới.
en-vi
And I've put the formula up there.
و من اون فرمول رو اون بالا براتون گذاشتم.
en-fa
I'm not going to explain what that formula is, but it's very beautiful.
Δεν θα εξηγήσω τι είναι αυτός ο τύπος,αλλά είναι πολύ όμορφος.
en-el
And it has real beauty and real explanatory power.
Valódi szépség és valódi magyarázat rejlik benne.
en-hu
And what it really says, and what you want to estimate, is the probability of different beliefs given your sensory input.
Wat het werkelijk zegt en wat je wilt bepalen, is de waarschijnlijkheid van verschillende overtuigingen op basis van je zintuiglijke input.
en-nl
So let me give you an intuitive example.
Vou dar-vos um exemplo intuitivo.
en-pt
Imagine you're learning to play tennis and you want to decide where the ball is going to bounce as it comes over the net towards you.
Imagine que você está aprendendo a jogar tênis e você quer decidir onde a bola vai quicar enquanto ela passa sobre a rede.
en-pt-br
There are two sources of information Bayes' rule tells you.
Są dwa źródła informacji, mówi reguła Bayesa.
en-pl
There's sensory evidence -- you can use visual information auditory information, and that might tell you it's going to land in that red spot.
감각적 정보를 보면 - 당신은 시청각적 정보를 이용해 레드스팟을 유추할 겁니다.
en-ko
But you know that your senses are not perfect, and therefore there's some variability of where it's going to land shown by that cloud of red, representing numbers between 0.5 and maybe 0.1.
而你知道你的感覺並不完美， 所以它的落點會有誤差， 這就是紅色區域， 而可能性大概是在 0.5 到 0.1 之間。
en-zh-tw
That information is available in the current shot, but there's another source of information not available on the current shot, but only available by repeated experience in the game of tennis, and that's that the ball doesn't bounce with equal probability over the court during the match.
هذه المعلومات متوفرة بالنسبة للرمية الحالية، ولكن هناك مصدر آخر للمعلومات غير متوفر بالنسبة للرمية الحالية، ولكنها متاحة فقط من خلال التجربة المتكررة في لعبة التنس، وهي ان الكرة لا ترتد مع احتمالات متساوية على كامل الملعب خلال المباراة.
en-ar
If you're playing against a very good opponent, they may distribute it in that green area, which is the prior distribution, making it hard for you to return.
Se você está jogando contra um rival muito bom, elas podem se distribuir na área verde, que é a distribuição prévia, tornando a devolução difícil.
en-pt-br
Now both these sources of information carry important information.
Αυτές οι δύο πηγές μεταφέρουν σημαντικές πληροφορίες.
en-el
And what Bayes' rule says is that I should multiply the numbers on the red by the numbers on the green to get the numbers of the yellow, which have the ellipses, and that's my belief.
Und was die Bayes-Regel aussagt, ist, dass man die Anzahl im Roten mit der Anzahl im Grünen multiplizieren sollte, um die Anzahl der Gelben zu erhalten, die die Ellipsen aufweisen, und das ist meine Überzeugung.
en-de
So it's the optimal way of combining information.
זוהי הדרך המיטבית לשילוב בין מקורות מידע.
en-he
Now I wouldn't tell you all this if it wasn't that a few years ago, we showed this is exactly what people do when they learn new movement skills.
Şimdi birkaç yıl önce insanların yeni hareketler öğrendiklerinde ne yaptıklarını göstermiş olmasaydık bugün size bunları söylemezdim.
en-tr
And what it means is we really are Bayesian inference machines.
Et ce que cela signifie est que nous sommes réellement des machines à inférences bayésiennes.
en-fr
As we go around, we learn about statistics of the world and lay that down, but we also learn about how noisy our own sensory apparatus is, and then combine those in a real Bayesian way.
生きる中で　周りの確率的な世界から学んだことを基に するだけではなく 感覚がいかにノイズだらけなのかも学び それらを実生活の中で ベイズ式に組み合わせているのです
en-ja
Now a key part to the Bayesian is this part of the formula.
Y el punto clave de esta regla, es ésta parte de la fórmula.
en-es
And what this part really says is I have to predict the probability of different sensory feedbacks given my beliefs.
Taj deo zapravo govori da ja treba da predvidim verovatnoću različitih senzornih povratnih reakcija u odnosu na moje stavove.
en-sr
So that really means I have to make predictions of the future.
Điều đó có nghĩa là tôi phải dự đoán về tương lai.
en-vi
And I want to convince you the brain does make predictions of the sensory feedback it's going to get.
Và tôi muốn thuyết phục các bạn rằng bộ não thật sự thực hiện việc dự đoán về các phản hồi cảm giác mà bộ não sắp sửa nhận được.
en-vi
And moreover, it profoundly changes your perceptions by what you do.
并且你本身做了什么动作 在很大程度上影响了你感知到的东西
en-zh-cn
And to do that, I'll tell you about how the brain deals with sensory input.
И за да ви убедя, ще ви разкажа как мозъкът се справя със сетивните възприятия.
en-bg
So you send a command out, you get sensory feedback back, and that transformation is governed by the physics of your body and your sensory apparatus.
Allora, inviate un comando, e avete in cambio un riscontro sensoriale, e quella trasformazione viene gestita dalla fisica del vostro corpo e dal vostro apparato sensoriale.
en-it
But you can imagine looking inside the brain.
しかし脳の中を見ることで想像はできます
en-ja
And here's inside the brain.
และนี่คือภายในสมอง
en-th
You might have a little predictor, a neural simulator, of the physics of your body and your senses.
Potreste avere un piccolo indovino, un simulatore neurale, della fisica del vostro corpo e dei vostri sensi.
en-it
So as you send a movement command down, you tap a copy of that off and run it into your neural simulator to anticipate the sensory consequences of your actions.
Dus als je een bewegingscommando naar beneden stuurt, maak je een kopie en voert het door je neurale simulator om te anticiperen op de sensorische consequenties van je daden.
en-nl
So as I shake this ketchup bottle, I get some true sensory feedback as the function of time in the bottom row.
제가 케첩 병을 흔들면, 시간에 따라 바닥에서부터 실제의 감각적 피드백을 얻게 되죠.
en-ko
And if I've got a good predictor, it predicts the same thing.
もし予測がうまくいけば　同じことが起こるでしょう
en-ja
Well why would I bother doing that?
Так зачем мне суетиться, делая это?
en-ru
I'm going to get the same feedback anyway.
Primiću iste povratne reakcije u svakom slučaju.
en-sr
Well there's good reasons.
Mas há boas razões.
en-pt
Imagine, as I shake the ketchup bottle, someone very kindly comes up to me and taps it on the back for me.
ลองจินตนาการ ขณะผมกำลังเขย่าขวดซอสมะเขือเทศ มีคนใจดีมาช่วยผมเคาะก้นขวดให้อีก
en-th
Now I get an extra source of sensory information due to that external act.
Maintenant j'ai une source supplémentaire d'information à cause de cette action externe ;
en-fr
So I get two sources.
У меня два источника.
en-ru
I get you tapping on it, and I get me shaking it, but from my senses' point of view, that is combined together into one source of information.
一個是你拍它，一個是我搖它， 但是對我的感覺來說， 它被合併在一起，變成了一種感知來源。
en-zh-tw