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this time the shutdown does not impact the arrival of international students.
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news travel processes and remember that students are not permitted to quarantine in residence.
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some sad news from the faculty of mathematics professor tom coleman...
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dean of math from 2005 to 2010 and professor of combinatorics and optimization from 2005.
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or wat risk, which i will say is one of my favorite university acronyms.
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his most well known work was based on fundamental design and analysis of algorithms for trust region, methods in optimization.
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armor and present colleagues and friends.
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concept has an interview with john on their website that outlines his vision for the future of student innovation at waterloo.
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acting and taking responsibility in the anti-racist movement.
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two s lgbtq+ fundamentals and radical solidarity for a collective future.
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intermediate or advanced. we'll put the link to the full spring calendar in our show notes.
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and the reason i bring that up is because the alumni happy hour box is back with a refreshing summer twist. so you can crack open a cold one.
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hard patio or wherever you can enjoy the weather because the happy hour box has everything you need to keep your beverages cold, your...
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toronto agency that partners with brewers to offer renowned beverages to ontario beer lovers.
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as chris godard, who credits his theater and performance degree with helping him become not only an actor...
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but a good listener and an adaptive risk taker.
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skills that are proven useful on an off the stage.
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both boxes include two 20 ounce waterloo alumni travel tumblers, which are double walled in...
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alcoholic or non-alcoholic beverages for your enjoyment.
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what about snacks? i need snacks or it's not happy hour for me.
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i love snacks. i even love the word snacks.
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alumni can order their box today and you'll get it in time to celebrate alumni weekend on june 4th and 5th.
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oh, i love salty and sweet things.
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waterloo faculty and staff are invited to a virtual return to campus town hall on tuesday.
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academic and provost james rush outline the university's plans to expand in-person experiences for many more of our students this fall.
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and ways the university is preparing to invite more employees back to campus to support waterloo academic mission.
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event. attendees can take part in a live q&a following the leaders presentation using...
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this episode will feature a repeat broadcast of our recent interview with professor kelly grandrod from the school of pharmacy.
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our next guest has provided important information to government and public health officials to help them make informed decisions.
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in layman's terms, what is computer modeling?
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for example, is a great example of a model.
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important features of real world systems that we're interested in understanding better.
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well, it seems like there are so many variables though in...
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things that can affect an outcome.
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how do you take that into account when you're dealing with a transmissible disease?
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then, you also have to systematically assess the impact of uncertainties.
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for example, if you are less certain about the probability of mortality or the probability of getting infected-
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... according to the models. so, we provide information to help the government and to help the population in general and-
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... that wave is going to peak and exactly how many cases you'll have.
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for example, we predicted back last summer that ontario would have a second wave followed very rapidly by a third wave.
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... back in august when we were just coming out the first wave. our-
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they can be qualitatively accurate over longer time scales, as-
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... as that example illustrates. they can also be quantitatively accurate over shorter time scales-
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... maybe a couple of weeks to a month.
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why did you decide to model the things that you modeled?
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we chose our models based on questions that were on many people's mind-
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... things that are on the minds of the public and-
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are you specifically looking at age or just who should get it?
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... in 2021. then, you can prevent the most deaths by vaccinating the elderly first.
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it would have made sense to vaccinate uniformally.
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... january in ontario. our results supported the approach that the government used of prioritizing the elderly first and then going to other age groups.
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... got to be difficult because you also didn't know that there was going to be a big contamination at the johnson & johnson factory for-
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... for instance. so, there's some things that are just beyond your control.
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if the numbers are actually outside of that range, maybe higher than we allowed for or lower than we allowed for, then those projections don't apply.
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that's a good example of using your understanding of how academics work in order to interpret these modeling results.
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... [inaudible 00:02:22] first, even if you have a relatively high vaccination rate because, in the middle of a wave, you can prevent more deaths by protecting the vulnerable, and in between waves-
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... waves, you can prevent more deaths by building up your herd protection to actually stop future waves. so-
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... alert and other contact tracing apps.
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well, maybe we could modify the functioning of these apps so that they can also tell you-
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we found that-
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you can actually reduce transmission very effective-
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that's a great way to get the transmission itself under control, but-
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so, it's not just about minimizing cases and [inaudible 00:03:13]-
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... indicated that the latest modeling that you weren't involved in actually says that the number of new cases could start to go down in may. to-
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... have received their second doses of the vaccines-
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... restrictions could lighten up. what do you think of these new models? do-
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this makes sense to me, and this is consistent with the outputs that our models have been producing.
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i think in ontario, we might have flattened the curve if-
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if we can get those numbers vaccinated, it-
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this would indeed allow us to lift up the restrictions.
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then, they'll have a much lower percentage vaccinated that they need.
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that's just the average, and it'll be a bit higher or lower depending upon the local circumstances.
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i see admissions, hospitalizations, and those things will all start to decline because of the vaccine program. i-
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i think that 75% number is really looking ahead towards-
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... and even vaccinating children, it will start to happen because they're doing clinical trials in children now.
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if there's too much vaccine hesitancy, then-
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yes. yeah. so, with the variance of concern, we've included-
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this b.1.1.7 variant is perhaps the biggest variant of concern because it's so transmissible.
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also, it seems to be more serious in terms of the infection-
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... but we're already kind of dealing with b.1.1.7-
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... think. even for the longer term, what the models can do is, even though they're not perfect crystal balls that can tell you everything, they can give you important-
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... instead of flattening the curve. despite uncertainties in the exact number of cases and exact death rate, what-
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... but all that uncertainty if you reduce contact, if-
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... instrumental in saving tens of thousands of lives in ontario alone back in march, 2020.
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... projections. a great example of why that's important is-
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... is the power of exponential growth. i can illustrate that with a story about a king.
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he wished to reward this advisor for his years of service.
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... advisor who is very canny and good at math.
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so, four grains of rice from the third square and then eight, six-
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... and three, two, etc. and then just give me all that rice, and i'll take that as payment. the king said, "what-"
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... do that. so, he started putting the rice grains down, and then he quickly realized that he didn't have enough rice in the entire kingdom to satisfy the request.
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that illustrates the power of things that multiply themselves.
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each infected person will infect around two and a half other persons on average.
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this is one mistake that many public health authorities around the world have made again and again.
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... that they don't look forward far enough in advance to avert that outcome.
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that's how countries like new zealand and china have been able to do it more quite successfully is by acting sooner, acting-
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we have all the data from the last year that we can use to improve the model and make sure it's realistic.
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okay. well, what happens if we adjust the model so that we didn't lock down?
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.. lock down. our results are showing that, if we hadn't locked down, it-
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so, that shows that the lockdown had a huge impact in saving lots of lives in ontario.
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