EmoClass
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transcript
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N
4.8
4.2
4.6
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Male
Train
we'll defer a little bit, you're looking at a hog mid to high single digit percentage point loss in the number of international students in the u.s. since 2017.
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U
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Train
so one of the big questions here is whether this recent slow down or even decline in the number of international students enrolled in the u.s. is a harbinger
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U
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Train
sort of continues across cohorts and eventually shows up in the numbers, four years from now as a..
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X
4.8
4.8
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1,226
Male
Train
the thing that you're most concerned about and survey after survey shows us is security. and i would say that particularly for institutions in..
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N
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and i guess the question that raises for me, is if that was the strategy that these institutions were increasingly relying on over time, depending..
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N
4.6
3.6
4.6
1,226
Male
Train
turns 18. cause there was a big drop in the birth rate around 2008. and i think a lot of institutions were gearing up their international numbers precisely to take advantage of that..
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O
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Train
my guest today has been alex osher, president of higher education strategy associates and author of has president trump scared away all the foreign students available now at education. next step..
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X
4
4.6
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that's in contrast to some of the best research on reducing absenteeism that has been done in chicago public schools with the urban education lab,
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N
4.8
5.6
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Train
generated, our intervention that i just described reduces absenteeism by at a cost of about $5 per net day generator, one, 100th as
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N
4.8
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Train
fuzzy, right?well, first of all, the tax credit scholarship idea was given birth in states about 18 states already have this.
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H
4
4.4
4.6
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Train
exactly right. and one of the things we want to make sure is that once a family has a scholarship and a good situation for their child,
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A
4.2
2.8
4.2
1,332
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Train
they would start doing things to the private school participants and other education providers that would be counter productive.
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N
4.6
3.8
5.2
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Train
well, first of all, i totally your premise, no bill passes in this environment without it being a bipartisan bill.
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N
2.8
3.6
3.2
1,332
Female
Train
so that we have a picture of the-
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X
4.4
4.2
4.4
1,332
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Train
over time is more women came into the labor market. and as the occupations opened up, suddenly women were becoming
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X
4.6
5
5
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Train
discounting pay by 22% compared to a comparable worker in terms of experience and skills and gender,
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N
2.6
4
2.6
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Train
... student achievement when we look across countries.
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X
3.4
5.6
3.4
1,332
Female
Train
all of the current teaching force. and we, i basically think that teachers are working as hard as they can, and as effectively as they can.
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N
4.2
2.8
5.2
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Train
i think that american school districts are experiencing unprecedented fiscal constraints.
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N
3.8
3.4
4.8
1,179
Male
Train
last spring teachers in six states took to the streets to demand better pay and more state-
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N
3.4
4.2
4.6
1,179
Male
Train
spending on education. in some cases with the support of district officials.
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N
3.6
4.2
5.2
1,179
Male
Train
already this year, teachers in los angeles and denver have gone on strike and their peers in west virginia and oakland are poised to do the same
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N
3.4
2.8
5
1,179
Male
Train
but my guest today has an important message for district leaders. if you think these are the bad times, wait until trouble really hits. while we can't predict exactly when-
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N
4.6
3.6
4.6
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Train
the next economic downturn will occur, now is the time to prepare for when it does.
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X
5.428571
5.428571
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Train
west editor of education next, and i'm joined today by margarete rosa director of the genomics lab at georgetown university. margarita is the author of a new blog post titled
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H
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Train
dear districts. these are the glory days. are you ready for tomorrow's financial pain that you can find on the journal's website@educationnext.org, and will be the focus of our..
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N
4.8
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Train
we've seen this script before. what script do you have in mind?
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N
4.833333
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so the script is basically, we've had a bit of a run of sort of stronger economic growth, which means that there-
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U
4
5.6
5
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Female
Train
more resources in states for education. and that the revenue for districts has exceeded-
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N
4.666667
4.166667
4
1,182
Female
Train
last year's expenditures and we're due for some economic stumble. and i'll be vague on that because i had done-
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N
4
3.4
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Train
so this is kind of the peak in spending before we should likely anticipate some sort of stumble.
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N
4.6
3.6
4.4
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Train
the following three years and only exceeded its 2008, 2009 levels in 2015, 16. that-
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N
4.4
4.2
5.4
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Train
that's the most recent year for which data are available on a nationwide basis.
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N
4.666667
4.166667
4.666667
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Train
and your post suggests, i hear you saying, that the past few years have likely been pretty good. is that right?
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N
5.2
3.4
4.2
1,182
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Train
the phrase "glory days" is a little bit of an attention-getter. it just means we're sort of-
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N
4.8
4.6
4
1,182
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Train
at the top of one of these rollercoaster rides. and 2008 was the top of one.
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N
5.2
4.4
4.4
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Train
and so we talk a lot about restoring spending to 2008, but 2008 was a peak. it was higher than the year before and higher than the other. it was after kind of-
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so to assume that's the steady state is sort of missing the big picture. we-
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N
4.2
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revenues sort of exceeded cost of living or sort of inflation adjustment. and-
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4.4
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but it never feels like the peak when you're in the peak. and i can say that back in 2008, people didn't think that was the peak.
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X
4.666667
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you know, so you look back on it, this is what the-
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N
5.2
3.8
4.6
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when the economy dips and teachers don't leave their jobs and you don't have a shortage and you start talking about a reduction in force, but that's probably-
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4
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sort of this cycle, and we're sort of staring at the next dip. and that's why i wrote the piece to sort of draw attention-
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4.2
3.4
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Train
and this will impact some districts more than others.
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N
4.2
3.8
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i mean, we are watching indicators in europe and globally, and some volatility, and-
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4.2
3
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suggesting we may be in for an economic stumble. and when i say we've watched state revenues fall, we've just-
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N
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maybe that they just don't grow as fast as they hoped. and so let's say state revenues are flat. well, districts can't survive on flat revenues without-
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X
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making cuts. because they have salaries set to accelerate, they have benefit costs that they're committed to covering. and those things go up every year.
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O
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revenues from the state mean cuts in districts. and state revenues are the most sensitive to the economy because they're affected by things like sales-
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N
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Train
so it's districts in those states that play a greater role in school spending that may be most subject to the fluctuations of the business site.
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N
4
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Train
where the-
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U
4.875
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cap local money. and we're going to try to really fund education out of state funds. that can be good for equity, but it can be tough in an economic downturn.
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N
4.666667
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Train
during an economic growth period where you see a lot of teacher turnover and they sort of lament it, right? we can't keep up-
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N
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4.4
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[inaudible 00:01:04] and suddenly during economic downturn teachers don't leave, or they don't leave at higher rates. and so a lot of us, when the teachers stick around, they earn-
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N
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4
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Female
Train
the next years worth of longevity pay-
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X
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they earn higher salaries than the brand new teachers coming in at the bottom end. so if you don't have that constant replacement going on, that you have during an economic strong period-
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X
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then you're going to actually see your cost [inaudible 00:06:43] up. and that can be tough for districts, to see... it often
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N
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Train
catches them by surprise when we have an economic stumble.
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N
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four, or three, and then they decide during the economic downturn to-
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N
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point or another, or a 10 year point, and that one they might trigger another level of pension benefits. so there's also greater demand-
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N
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on the pension fund from employees.
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N
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Female
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district actually has to reduce its entire budget by 0.75%, which-
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X
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payoff mode, where we can't really predict what the cuts are going to be. they seem very political. they're sort of jumping around, cutting whatever they can cut in their environment.
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looked at a bunch of them that had these bigger cuts, and they could be for any reason, whether it was a cut in state funds or a loss in enrollment, or any-
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A
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get the political backlash or the stakeholders get frustrated. and then they end up going over to the corner and cutting this other thing instead. and so we suggest that districts try-
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X
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recommendation that districts resist more hiring, even in the good times, reminded me of an article that we ran in education next, all the way back in the winter of 2004, by-
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which was about districts struggles to downsize. and one of the dynamics that he identified was this use it or lose it mentality that-
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N
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talk ourselves into another benefits load. and that can be, the benefits is going up higher, growing faster than any other part of the budget-
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U
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and we won't have as much money to potentially raise the salaries of the staff that we have. and so, part of what we make the suggestion here is to keep-
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O
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during a downturn and a district's only going to be in position to take advantage of that window of opportunity, if they have some resources available to do so.
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H
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rush out right now when the labor market's really thin, and it's hard to hire people and do all our hiring now, because it seems like a boom year, then what we don't get done is-
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U
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extracurriculars, or we're eliminating some of our foreign language programs. and what you see is a district-wide reaction to that.
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U
4.428571
4.857143
4.142857
1,182
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and retirement, they might say, i'm going to resist hiring a new vice principal, because that allows me to protect whatever it is, foreign language program or the extracurriculars or-
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D
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but are there places that have taken this advice? are there examples you can point to, of farsighted fiscal management in school districts right now?
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X
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several decades. and i mean several decades, going back to the 1970s and forward. the districts do the opposite where they rushed out whenever they had extra money and did hiring.
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H
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Train
and i also think that there was a lack of a real thoughtfulness in denver and elsewhere of with this-
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furthers the common goal of equity and make sure that all public schools are working together in a way that means better opportunities, particularly-
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N
4
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Train
in neighborhoods. but most importantly, in our poor neighborhoods, have better schools that are more dynamic, that attract and keep talent, that offer the best possible-
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S
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except maybe new orleans, is charters are just as coequally public schools in terms of their rules and requirements on serving all kids-
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U
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Train
but we had a very committed school board committed to how do we improve opportunities, particularly for our highest needs kids. and i think there are a couple key pieces to that, one-
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H
5
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in this extraordinarily challenging, complex profession that teacher's in and helped us keep and grow so many more of our talented teachers. and i think that-
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X
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Train
30% during that timeframe of so many families stayed in denver or came to denver because of the schools.
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N
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Train
for our folks who teach-
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N
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rather on the extent to which they provide opportunities for students from low-income families, whether it's the share of students receiving federal pell grants, or the share from the-
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F
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Train
and then the third measure is one that's a bit more difficult for people to understand, it is called the intergenerational mobility measure. now, this-
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N
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which is called the missing one-offs, was really the first to identify the fact that there were many more low income, high achieving students than were going to selective colleges and university-
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high school where they happen to be the low income student who was very high achieving. and they were being not reached by colleges and universities, and they were ending up not applying-
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N
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keen on colleges and universities.
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X
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4.4
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Train
the problem that you identify is that they confound differences in college's effort to enroll low income students with differences in the colleges circumstances-
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N
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national income distribution. so it would do very well on what's called the bottom quintile measure, and also it would do very well on the pell share measure at the-
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the university of wisconsin, located in wisconsin, faces a relevant pool of students whose parents have unusually equal incomes-
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and i think that's a good thing. and most people think that is a good thing for children, that they're growing up in an environment, which is very equal.
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criteria that are important to the mission and goals of the university, that is up to them, and that should not be decided by a couple of outside economists or a little team of-
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maybe bring them up to speed with a summer camp or tutoring before they come in, or a special enrichment courses in their senior year or something like-
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U
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1,179
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these other rankings are already out there, as you mentioned previously, there are proposals to tie explicit incentives to them, they're-
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distorted heir behavior. so, let me give you a first example of what schools do to distort their behavior. and this is really a disturbing one-
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hold. the school gets no credit on these rankings for that student. and yet, in order to enroll that student, you need to give that student generous financial aid, too. so what-
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income, removing the financial aid from them. and that's not too surprising when you think about the incentives that these schools are given by these rankings, they get credit-
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they think, well, it's reasonable that schools are very interested in the pell eligible students because they're getting this federal grant and the students above the pell eligible-
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U
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several hundred dollars. instead, they're eager to get them because they get credit for each pell grant eligible student in these rankings. and we have seen schools-
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