CPM-jev / evaluation_report.json
link921's picture
Release v0.1 research preview files
257d034 verified
Raw History Blame Contribute Delete
76.2 kB
{
"calibration": {
"split": "calibration",
"temperature": 1.0087398771573446,
"default_prediction": "raw",
"calibration_comparison": {
"raw": {
"count": 13766,
"top1_accuracy": 0.8311782652912973,
"nll": 0.6855602746553805,
"brier_score": 0.010973403472421008,
"ece": 0.1712850628941104,
"signed_calibration_error": -0.17128506289411038,
"kl_divergence": 0.02185337568727864,
"confidence_analysis": {
"correct": {
"count": 11442,
"mean": 0.694725726679517,
"median": 0.6793243885040283,
"std": 0.19659272893691354,
"p25": 0.501576766371727,
"p75": 0.8654205501079559
},
"incorrect": {
"count": 2324,
"mean": 0.48839847656309915,
"median": 0.500387966632843,
"std": 0.07211813579079812,
"p25": 0.5000417530536652,
"p75": 0.5010467320680618
}
},
"confidence_histogram": [
{
"bucket": "0.0-0.1",
"sample_count": 0,
"average_confidence": null,
"empirical_accuracy": null,
"signed_gap": null
},
{
"bucket": "0.1-0.2",
"sample_count": 0,
"average_confidence": null,
"empirical_accuracy": null,
"signed_gap": null
},
{
"bucket": "0.2-0.3",
"sample_count": 134,
"average_confidence": 0.27603658633445627,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.5,
"signed_gap": -0.22396341366554373
},
{
"bucket": "0.3-0.4",
"sample_count": 637,
"average_confidence": 0.3581763524649843,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.6923076923076923,
"signed_gap": -0.334131339842708
},
{
"bucket": "0.4-0.5",
"sample_count": 1197,
"average_confidence": 0.45263352763583087,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.7861319966583125,
"signed_gap": -0.3334984690224816
},
{
"bucket": "0.5-0.6",
"sample_count": 4710,
"average_confidence": 0.520006962819717,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.6322717622080679,
"signed_gap": -0.11226479938835088
},
{
"bucket": "0.6-0.7",
"sample_count": 1701,
"average_confidence": 0.6498155774683338,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.9711934156378601,
"signed_gap": -0.32137783816952625
},
{
"bucket": "0.7-0.8",
"sample_count": 1530,
"average_confidence": 0.7490799561045528,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.9888888888888889,
"signed_gap": -0.23980893278433613
},
{
"bucket": "0.8-0.9",
"sample_count": 1452,
"average_confidence": 0.847257420872197,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.9986225895316805,
"signed_gap": -0.15136516865948346
},
{
"bucket": "0.9-1.0",
"sample_count": 2405,
"average_confidence": 0.9755763211765804,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.997920997920998,
"signed_gap": -0.022344676744417535
}
],
"selective_accuracy": [
{
"threshold": 0.5,
"coverage": 0.8570390817957286,
"accuracy": 0.8470079674521105,
"risk": 0.1529920325478895,
"sample_count": 11798
},
{
"threshold": 0.6,
"coverage": 0.514891762312945,
"accuracy": 0.9897009029345373,
"risk": 0.010299097065462726,
"sample_count": 7088
},
{
"threshold": 0.7,
"coverage": 0.39132645648699693,
"accuracy": 0.9955448301466493,
"risk": 0.0044551698533507045,
"sample_count": 5387
},
{
"threshold": 0.8,
"coverage": 0.28018305971233476,
"accuracy": 0.9981851179673321,
"risk": 0.001814882032667886,
"sample_count": 3857
},
{
"threshold": 0.9,
"coverage": 0.1747057968908906,
"accuracy": 0.997920997920998,
"risk": 0.0020790020790020236,
"sample_count": 2405
},
{
"threshold": 0.95,
"coverage": 0.13162865029783524,
"accuracy": 0.9977924944812362,
"risk": 0.002207505518763808,
"sample_count": 1812
}
]
},
"temperature_scaled": {
"count": 13766,
"top1_accuracy": 0.8311782652912973,
"nll": 0.6855494345867709,
"brier_score": 0.010966401509070522,
"ece": 0.17250904779846635,
"signed_calibration_error": -0.17250904779846632,
"kl_divergence": 0.02184253561866892,
"confidence_analysis": {
"correct": {
"count": 11442,
"mean": 0.6933398573451267,
"median": 0.6774639946027864,
"std": 0.19661340445165715,
"p25": 0.5014006484541963,
"p75": 0.863254437984726
},
"incorrect": {
"count": 2324,
"mean": 0.4879715147432757,
"median": 0.5003803821956974,
"std": 0.07215117413704505,
"p25": 0.5000357963828128,
"p75": 0.5010135416360336
}
},
"confidence_histogram": [
{
"bucket": "0.0-0.1",
"sample_count": 0,
"average_confidence": null,
"empirical_accuracy": null,
"signed_gap": null
},
{
"bucket": "0.1-0.2",
"sample_count": 0,
"average_confidence": null,
"empirical_accuracy": null,
"signed_gap": null
},
{
"bucket": "0.2-0.3",
"sample_count": 137,
"average_confidence": 0.2758391267365239,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.5036496350364964,
"signed_gap": -0.22781050829997251
},
{
"bucket": "0.3-0.4",
"sample_count": 642,
"average_confidence": 0.3577477496059755,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.6962616822429907,
"signed_gap": -0.3385139326370152
},
{
"bucket": "0.4-0.5",
"sample_count": 1215,
"average_confidence": 0.4524140225007448,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.7851851851851852,
"signed_gap": -0.3327711626844404
},
{
"bucket": "0.5-0.6",
"sample_count": 4721,
"average_confidence": 0.5201900803979108,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.633552213514086,
"signed_gap": -0.11336213311617516
},
{
"bucket": "0.6-0.7",
"sample_count": 1701,
"average_confidence": 0.6500267694102276,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.9723691945914168,
"signed_gap": -0.32234242518118916
},
{
"bucket": "0.7-0.8",
"sample_count": 1529,
"average_confidence": 0.7491738888998721,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.9895356442119032,
"signed_gap": -0.24036175531203108
},
{
"bucket": "0.8-0.9",
"sample_count": 1445,
"average_confidence": 0.8472853994689213,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.9986159169550173,
"signed_gap": -0.15133051748609594
},
{
"bucket": "0.9-1.0",
"sample_count": 2376,
"average_confidence": 0.9759117055438289,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.997895622895623,
"signed_gap": -0.021983917351794058
}
],
"selective_accuracy": [
{
"threshold": 0.5,
"coverage": 0.8551503704779893,
"accuracy": 0.8470948012232415,
"risk": 0.15290519877675846,
"sample_count": 11772
},
{
"threshold": 0.6,
"coverage": 0.5122039808223159,
"accuracy": 0.9900723301659339,
"risk": 0.009927669834066122,
"sample_count": 7051
},
{
"threshold": 0.7,
"coverage": 0.38863867499636784,
"accuracy": 0.9957009345794392,
"risk": 0.004299065420560799,
"sample_count": 5350
},
{
"threshold": 0.8,
"coverage": 0.2775679209646956,
"accuracy": 0.9981680188432348,
"risk": 0.0018319811567651945,
"sample_count": 3821
},
{
"threshold": 0.9,
"coverage": 0.17259915734418133,
"accuracy": 0.997895622895623,
"risk": 0.002104377104377053,
"sample_count": 2376
},
{
"threshold": 0.95,
"coverage": 0.1306116518959756,
"accuracy": 0.9977753058954394,
"risk": 0.0022246941045606095,
"sample_count": 1798
}
]
}
},
"overall": {
"count": 13766,
"top1_accuracy": 0.8311782652912973,
"nll": 0.6855602746553805,
"brier_score": 0.010973403472421008,
"ece": 0.1712850628941104,
"signed_calibration_error": -0.17128506289411038,
"kl_divergence": 0.02185337568727864,
"confidence_analysis": {
"correct": {
"count": 11442,
"mean": 0.694725726679517,
"median": 0.6793243885040283,
"std": 0.19659272893691354,
"p25": 0.501576766371727,
"p75": 0.8654205501079559
},
"incorrect": {
"count": 2324,
"mean": 0.48839847656309915,
"median": 0.500387966632843,
"std": 0.07211813579079812,
"p25": 0.5000417530536652,
"p75": 0.5010467320680618
}
},
"confidence_histogram": [
{
"bucket": "0.0-0.1",
"sample_count": 0,
"average_confidence": null,
"empirical_accuracy": null,
"signed_gap": null
},
{
"bucket": "0.1-0.2",
"sample_count": 0,
"average_confidence": null,
"empirical_accuracy": null,
"signed_gap": null
},
{
"bucket": "0.2-0.3",
"sample_count": 134,
"average_confidence": 0.27603658633445627,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.5,
"signed_gap": -0.22396341366554373
},
{
"bucket": "0.3-0.4",
"sample_count": 637,
"average_confidence": 0.3581763524649843,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.6923076923076923,
"signed_gap": -0.334131339842708
},
{
"bucket": "0.4-0.5",
"sample_count": 1197,
"average_confidence": 0.45263352763583087,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.7861319966583125,
"signed_gap": -0.3334984690224816
},
{
"bucket": "0.5-0.6",
"sample_count": 4710,
"average_confidence": 0.520006962819717,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.6322717622080679,
"signed_gap": -0.11226479938835088
},
{
"bucket": "0.6-0.7",
"sample_count": 1701,
"average_confidence": 0.6498155774683338,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.9711934156378601,
"signed_gap": -0.32137783816952625
},
{
"bucket": "0.7-0.8",
"sample_count": 1530,
"average_confidence": 0.7490799561045528,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.9888888888888889,
"signed_gap": -0.23980893278433613
},
{
"bucket": "0.8-0.9",
"sample_count": 1452,
"average_confidence": 0.847257420872197,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.9986225895316805,
"signed_gap": -0.15136516865948346
},
{
"bucket": "0.9-1.0",
"sample_count": 2405,
"average_confidence": 0.9755763211765804,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.997920997920998,
"signed_gap": -0.022344676744417535
}
],
"selective_accuracy": [
{
"threshold": 0.5,
"coverage": 0.8570390817957286,
"accuracy": 0.8470079674521105,
"risk": 0.1529920325478895,
"sample_count": 11798
},
{
"threshold": 0.6,
"coverage": 0.514891762312945,
"accuracy": 0.9897009029345373,
"risk": 0.010299097065462726,
"sample_count": 7088
},
{
"threshold": 0.7,
"coverage": 0.39132645648699693,
"accuracy": 0.9955448301466493,
"risk": 0.0044551698533507045,
"sample_count": 5387
},
{
"threshold": 0.8,
"coverage": 0.28018305971233476,
"accuracy": 0.9981851179673321,
"risk": 0.001814882032667886,
"sample_count": 3857
},
{
"threshold": 0.9,
"coverage": 0.1747057968908906,
"accuracy": 0.997920997920998,
"risk": 0.0020790020790020236,
"sample_count": 2405
},
{
"threshold": 0.95,
"coverage": 0.13162865029783524,
"accuracy": 0.9977924944812362,
"risk": 0.002207505518763808,
"sample_count": 1812
}
]
},
"by_kind": {
"noul": {
"count": 7175,
"top1_accuracy": 0.7839721254355401,
"nll": 0.5094520074091426,
"brier_score": 0.0037153609942311735,
"ece": 0.0968418979893994,
"signed_calibration_error": -0.09684189798939934,
"kl_divergence": 0.005356521734346802
},
"choice": {
"count": 3418,
"top1_accuracy": 0.8838502047981276,
"nll": 0.7117832643875154,
"brier_score": 0.0267761779649997,
"ece": 0.18598052990966682,
"signed_calibration_error": -0.18598052990966682,
"kl_divergence": 0.05244051993410699
},
"score": {
"count": 3173,
"top1_accuracy": 0.8811849984242042,
"nll": 1.055540305726077,
"brier_score": 0.010362805163369038,
"ece": 0.323790767883751,
"signed_calibration_error": -0.323790767883751,
"kl_divergence": 0.026208266351201326
}
}
},
"validation": {
"split": "validation",
"temperature": 1.0087398771573446,
"default_prediction": "raw",
"calibration_comparison": {
"raw": {
"count": 14111,
"top1_accuracy": 0.8263765856424067,
"nll": 0.6840500261181026,
"brier_score": 0.011582265527708373,
"ece": 0.16699567031458232,
"signed_calibration_error": -0.1669956703145823,
"kl_divergence": 0.02310311772478613,
"confidence_analysis": {
"correct": {
"count": 11661,
"mean": 0.6960411451404903,
"median": 0.6765217781066895,
"std": 0.19690960502309285,
"p25": 0.50345379114151,
"p75": 0.8713327646255493
},
"incorrect": {
"count": 2450,
"mean": 0.4848931847786417,
"median": 0.500392496585846,
"std": 0.07416498496851862,
"p25": 0.5000284314155579,
"p75": 0.5010085254907608
}
},
"confidence_histogram": [
{
"bucket": "0.0-0.1",
"sample_count": 0,
"average_confidence": null,
"empirical_accuracy": null,
"signed_gap": null
},
{
"bucket": "0.1-0.2",
"sample_count": 0,
"average_confidence": null,
"empirical_accuracy": null,
"signed_gap": null
},
{
"bucket": "0.2-0.3",
"sample_count": 148,
"average_confidence": 0.27538005906987834,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.46621621621621623,
"signed_gap": -0.1908361571463379
},
{
"bucket": "0.3-0.4",
"sample_count": 667,
"average_confidence": 0.3564207344755776,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.664167916041979,
"signed_gap": -0.3077471815664014
},
{
"bucket": "0.4-0.5",
"sample_count": 1160,
"average_confidence": 0.4550788116095395,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.7741379310344828,
"signed_gap": -0.3190591194249433
},
{
"bucket": "0.5-0.6",
"sample_count": 4972,
"average_confidence": 0.5200908452703985,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.6351568785197104,
"signed_gap": -0.11506603324931186
},
{
"bucket": "0.6-0.7",
"sample_count": 1678,
"average_confidence": 0.6489259644685684,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.9713945172824792,
"signed_gap": -0.32246855281391074
},
{
"bucket": "0.7-0.8",
"sample_count": 1540,
"average_confidence": 0.7498124199641215,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.9935064935064936,
"signed_gap": -0.24369407354237205
},
{
"bucket": "0.8-0.9",
"sample_count": 1412,
"average_confidence": 0.8490157142154894,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.9936260623229461,
"signed_gap": -0.14461034810745677
},
{
"bucket": "0.9-1.0",
"sample_count": 2534,
"average_confidence": 0.9746775966087663,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.9984214680347278,
"signed_gap": -0.02374387142596146
}
],
"selective_accuracy": [
{
"threshold": 0.5,
"coverage": 0.8600382680178584,
"accuracy": 0.844676994067238,
"risk": 0.15532300593276205,
"sample_count": 12136
},
{
"threshold": 0.6,
"coverage": 0.5076890369215505,
"accuracy": 0.9900893355667225,
"risk": 0.009910664433277483,
"sample_count": 7164
},
{
"threshold": 0.7,
"coverage": 0.3887747147615336,
"accuracy": 0.9958075100255195,
"risk": 0.004192489974480518,
"sample_count": 5486
},
{
"threshold": 0.8,
"coverage": 0.279639997165332,
"accuracy": 0.996705524581855,
"risk": 0.003294475418144982,
"sample_count": 3946
},
{
"threshold": 0.9,
"coverage": 0.17957621713556798,
"accuracy": 0.9984214680347278,
"risk": 0.0015785319652722452,
"sample_count": 2534
},
{
"threshold": 0.95,
"coverage": 0.13273332860888667,
"accuracy": 0.9983982915109451,
"risk": 0.0016017084890549427,
"sample_count": 1873
}
]
},
"temperature_scaled": {
"count": 14111,
"top1_accuracy": 0.8263057189426688,
"nll": 0.6840468913421749,
"brier_score": 0.011582336771387319,
"ece": 0.16813608304214336,
"signed_calibration_error": -0.16813608304214334,
"kl_divergence": 0.023099982948858303,
"confidence_analysis": {
"correct": {
"count": 11660,
"mean": 0.694681208951386,
"median": 0.6747364841480057,
"std": 0.19693845421787254,
"p25": 0.5021719095333224,
"p75": 0.8689303683324948
},
"incorrect": {
"count": 2451,
"mean": 0.4844752492122222,
"median": 0.5003890293824186,
"std": 0.07420726284342961,
"p25": 0.500027128879432,
"p75": 0.5009866390613054
}
},
"confidence_histogram": [
{
"bucket": "0.0-0.1",
"sample_count": 0,
"average_confidence": null,
"empirical_accuracy": null,
"signed_gap": null
},
{
"bucket": "0.1-0.2",
"sample_count": 0,
"average_confidence": null,
"empirical_accuracy": null,
"signed_gap": null
},
{
"bucket": "0.2-0.3",
"sample_count": 151,
"average_confidence": 0.2751785209954829,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.46357615894039733,
"signed_gap": -0.18839763794491443
},
{
"bucket": "0.3-0.4",
"sample_count": 674,
"average_confidence": 0.35612814661984515,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.6646884272997032,
"signed_gap": -0.3085602806798581
},
{
"bucket": "0.4-0.5",
"sample_count": 1168,
"average_confidence": 0.45463179276212934,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.7782534246575342,
"signed_gap": -0.3236216318954049
},
{
"bucket": "0.5-0.6",
"sample_count": 4987,
"average_confidence": 0.5201110232818913,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.6360537397232805,
"signed_gap": -0.1159427164413892
},
{
"bucket": "0.6-0.7",
"sample_count": 1673,
"average_confidence": 0.6487813857971743,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.9719067543335326,
"signed_gap": -0.3231253685363583
},
{
"bucket": "0.7-0.8",
"sample_count": 1546,
"average_confidence": 0.7495579579669318,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.9935316946959897,
"signed_gap": -0.24397373672905787
},
{
"bucket": "0.8-0.9",
"sample_count": 1409,
"average_confidence": 0.8491268025105129,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.99361249112846,
"signed_gap": -0.14448568861794708
},
{
"bucket": "0.9-1.0",
"sample_count": 2503,
"average_confidence": 0.9749893213960854,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.9984019176987615,
"signed_gap": -0.023412596302676114
}
],
"selective_accuracy": [
{
"threshold": 0.5,
"coverage": 0.8587626674225781,
"accuracy": 0.8444462782637399,
"risk": 0.15555372173626014,
"sample_count": 12118
},
{
"threshold": 0.6,
"coverage": 0.5053504358302033,
"accuracy": 0.9901837049502173,
"risk": 0.009816295049782653,
"sample_count": 7131
},
{
"threshold": 0.7,
"coverage": 0.38679044716887534,
"accuracy": 0.9957860021986076,
"risk": 0.004213997801392422,
"sample_count": 5458
},
{
"threshold": 0.8,
"coverage": 0.277230529374247,
"accuracy": 0.996676891615542,
"risk": 0.00332310838445804,
"sample_count": 3912
},
{
"threshold": 0.9,
"coverage": 0.1773793494436964,
"accuracy": 0.9984019176987615,
"risk": 0.0015980823012384793,
"sample_count": 2503
},
{
"threshold": 0.95,
"coverage": 0.131599461413082,
"accuracy": 0.9983844911147012,
"risk": 0.001615508885298822,
"sample_count": 1857
}
]
}
},
"overall": {
"count": 14111,
"top1_accuracy": 0.8263765856424067,
"nll": 0.6840500261181026,
"brier_score": 0.011582265527708373,
"ece": 0.16699567031458232,
"signed_calibration_error": -0.1669956703145823,
"kl_divergence": 0.02310311772478613,
"confidence_analysis": {
"correct": {
"count": 11661,
"mean": 0.6960411451404903,
"median": 0.6765217781066895,
"std": 0.19690960502309285,
"p25": 0.50345379114151,
"p75": 0.8713327646255493
},
"incorrect": {
"count": 2450,
"mean": 0.4848931847786417,
"median": 0.500392496585846,
"std": 0.07416498496851862,
"p25": 0.5000284314155579,
"p75": 0.5010085254907608
}
},
"confidence_histogram": [
{
"bucket": "0.0-0.1",
"sample_count": 0,
"average_confidence": null,
"empirical_accuracy": null,
"signed_gap": null
},
{
"bucket": "0.1-0.2",
"sample_count": 0,
"average_confidence": null,
"empirical_accuracy": null,
"signed_gap": null
},
{
"bucket": "0.2-0.3",
"sample_count": 148,
"average_confidence": 0.27538005906987834,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.46621621621621623,
"signed_gap": -0.1908361571463379
},
{
"bucket": "0.3-0.4",
"sample_count": 667,
"average_confidence": 0.3564207344755776,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.664167916041979,
"signed_gap": -0.3077471815664014
},
{
"bucket": "0.4-0.5",
"sample_count": 1160,
"average_confidence": 0.4550788116095395,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.7741379310344828,
"signed_gap": -0.3190591194249433
},
{
"bucket": "0.5-0.6",
"sample_count": 4972,
"average_confidence": 0.5200908452703985,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.6351568785197104,
"signed_gap": -0.11506603324931186
},
{
"bucket": "0.6-0.7",
"sample_count": 1678,
"average_confidence": 0.6489259644685684,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.9713945172824792,
"signed_gap": -0.32246855281391074
},
{
"bucket": "0.7-0.8",
"sample_count": 1540,
"average_confidence": 0.7498124199641215,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.9935064935064936,
"signed_gap": -0.24369407354237205
},
{
"bucket": "0.8-0.9",
"sample_count": 1412,
"average_confidence": 0.8490157142154894,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.9936260623229461,
"signed_gap": -0.14461034810745677
},
{
"bucket": "0.9-1.0",
"sample_count": 2534,
"average_confidence": 0.9746775966087663,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.9984214680347278,
"signed_gap": -0.02374387142596146
}
],
"selective_accuracy": [
{
"threshold": 0.5,
"coverage": 0.8600382680178584,
"accuracy": 0.844676994067238,
"risk": 0.15532300593276205,
"sample_count": 12136
},
{
"threshold": 0.6,
"coverage": 0.5076890369215505,
"accuracy": 0.9900893355667225,
"risk": 0.009910664433277483,
"sample_count": 7164
},
{
"threshold": 0.7,
"coverage": 0.3887747147615336,
"accuracy": 0.9958075100255195,
"risk": 0.004192489974480518,
"sample_count": 5486
},
{
"threshold": 0.8,
"coverage": 0.279639997165332,
"accuracy": 0.996705524581855,
"risk": 0.003294475418144982,
"sample_count": 3946
},
{
"threshold": 0.9,
"coverage": 0.17957621713556798,
"accuracy": 0.9984214680347278,
"risk": 0.0015785319652722452,
"sample_count": 2534
},
{
"threshold": 0.95,
"coverage": 0.13273332860888667,
"accuracy": 0.9983982915109451,
"risk": 0.0016017084890549427,
"sample_count": 1873
}
]
},
"by_kind": {
"noul": {
"count": 7318,
"top1_accuracy": 0.7768515987974857,
"nll": 0.5093834824517124,
"brier_score": 0.004471756349480391,
"ece": 0.0906974503693603,
"signed_calibration_error": -0.09069745036936028,
"kl_divergence": 0.006825210554294711
},
"choice": {
"count": 3592,
"top1_accuracy": 0.8883630289532294,
"nll": 0.7059347606075163,
"brier_score": 0.026947777171404695,
"ece": 0.18629910839609556,
"signed_calibration_error": -0.18629910839609554,
"kl_divergence": 0.053229628385184406
},
"score": {
"count": 3201,
"top1_accuracy": 0.8700406123086536,
"nll": 1.0588078518802615,
"brier_score": 0.010595632707375723,
"ece": 0.31976431260459764,
"signed_calibration_error": -0.3197643126045976,
"kl_divergence": 0.026510583635909378
}
}
},
"test": {
"split": "test",
"temperature": 1.0087398771573446,
"default_prediction": "raw",
"calibration_comparison": {
"raw": {
"count": 14261,
"top1_accuracy": 0.8317789776313022,
"nll": 0.6899501951292062,
"brier_score": 0.01078157515435976,
"ece": 0.17475665939191923,
"signed_calibration_error": -0.17475665939191926,
"kl_divergence": 0.021929131222482388,
"confidence_analysis": {
"correct": {
"count": 11862,
"mean": 0.6918767107513397,
"median": 0.6726522445678711,
"std": 0.19655097670181684,
"p25": 0.5013070702552795,
"p75": 0.8612504750490189
},
"incorrect": {
"count": 2399,
"mean": 0.4846826750643803,
"median": 0.5003705024719238,
"std": 0.07204632774177197,
"p25": 0.5000030398368835,
"p75": 0.5009814202785492
}
},
"confidence_histogram": [
{
"bucket": "0.0-0.1",
"sample_count": 0,
"average_confidence": null,
"empirical_accuracy": null,
"signed_gap": null
},
{
"bucket": "0.1-0.2",
"sample_count": 0,
"average_confidence": null,
"empirical_accuracy": null,
"signed_gap": null
},
{
"bucket": "0.2-0.3",
"sample_count": 147,
"average_confidence": 0.2777280737550891,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.5238095238095238,
"signed_gap": -0.2460814500544347
},
{
"bucket": "0.3-0.4",
"sample_count": 683,
"average_confidence": 0.3585107686928041,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.6705710102489019,
"signed_gap": -0.31206024155609774
},
{
"bucket": "0.4-0.5",
"sample_count": 1268,
"average_confidence": 0.4527624952915339,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.7626182965299685,
"signed_gap": -0.3098558012384346
},
{
"bucket": "0.5-0.6",
"sample_count": 4931,
"average_confidence": 0.5197877843296327,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.6481443926181302,
"signed_gap": -0.1283566082884975
},
{
"bucket": "0.6-0.7",
"sample_count": 1700,
"average_confidence": 0.648453773856163,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.971764705882353,
"signed_gap": -0.32331093202619
},
{
"bucket": "0.7-0.8",
"sample_count": 1614,
"average_confidence": 0.7490191450054022,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.993184634448575,
"signed_gap": -0.24416548944317273
},
{
"bucket": "0.8-0.9",
"sample_count": 1438,
"average_confidence": 0.8470762723510222,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.9986091794158554,
"signed_gap": -0.15153290706483313
},
{
"bucket": "0.9-1.0",
"sample_count": 2480,
"average_confidence": 0.9748169333704056,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.9971774193548387,
"signed_gap": -0.022360485984433076
}
],
"selective_accuracy": [
{
"threshold": 0.5,
"coverage": 0.8528854919009887,
"accuracy": 0.8517635451779989,
"risk": 0.1482364548220011,
"sample_count": 12163
},
{
"threshold": 0.6,
"coverage": 0.5071173129514059,
"accuracy": 0.9905973451327433,
"risk": 0.009402654867256666,
"sample_count": 7232
},
{
"threshold": 0.7,
"coverage": 0.3879110861790898,
"accuracy": 0.9963846710050615,
"risk": 0.003615328994938549,
"sample_count": 5532
},
{
"threshold": 0.8,
"coverage": 0.2747352920552556,
"accuracy": 0.9977029096477795,
"risk": 0.0022970903522204766,
"sample_count": 3918
},
{
"threshold": 0.9,
"coverage": 0.17390084846784937,
"accuracy": 0.9971774193548387,
"risk": 0.0028225806451612767,
"sample_count": 2480
},
{
"threshold": 0.95,
"coverage": 0.1289530888436996,
"accuracy": 0.9978249048395867,
"risk": 0.002175095160413254,
"sample_count": 1839
}
]
},
"temperature_scaled": {
"count": 14261,
"top1_accuracy": 0.8317789776313022,
"nll": 0.6899450200681629,
"brier_score": 0.010779281273617143,
"ece": 0.17597908952728109,
"signed_calibration_error": -0.17597908952728109,
"kl_divergence": 0.02192395616143921,
"confidence_analysis": {
"correct": {
"count": 11862,
"mean": 0.6904957933204784,
"median": 0.6705494859934404,
"std": 0.19655627796667396,
"p25": 0.5012256589733323,
"p75": 0.8592282863558779
},
"incorrect": {
"count": 2399,
"mean": 0.484243894907849,
"median": 0.5003640683162293,
"std": 0.07211359411238703,
"p25": 0.500001822502316,
"p75": 0.5009611647486907
}
},
"confidence_histogram": [
{
"bucket": "0.0-0.1",
"sample_count": 0,
"average_confidence": null,
"empirical_accuracy": null,
"signed_gap": null
},
{
"bucket": "0.1-0.2",
"sample_count": 0,
"average_confidence": null,
"empirical_accuracy": null,
"signed_gap": null
},
{
"bucket": "0.2-0.3",
"sample_count": 148,
"average_confidence": 0.2771223728628908,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.527027027027027,
"signed_gap": -0.24990465416413615
},
{
"bucket": "0.3-0.4",
"sample_count": 689,
"average_confidence": 0.3578369848155047,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.6719883889695211,
"signed_gap": -0.3141514041540164
},
{
"bucket": "0.4-0.5",
"sample_count": 1284,
"average_confidence": 0.45233907075338764,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.764018691588785,
"signed_gap": -0.31167962083539735
},
{
"bucket": "0.5-0.6",
"sample_count": 4935,
"average_confidence": 0.5197456251441614,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.6488348530901722,
"signed_gap": -0.12908922794601074
},
{
"bucket": "0.6-0.7",
"sample_count": 1714,
"average_confidence": 0.6485317314610259,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.9725787631271878,
"signed_gap": -0.3240470316661619
},
{
"bucket": "0.7-0.8",
"sample_count": 1609,
"average_confidence": 0.7490936944583456,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.9931634555624611,
"signed_gap": -0.2440697611041155
},
{
"bucket": "0.8-0.9",
"sample_count": 1420,
"average_confidence": 0.8467287191781814,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.9985915492957746,
"signed_gap": -0.15186283011759327
},
{
"bucket": "0.9-1.0",
"sample_count": 2462,
"average_confidence": 0.9747442974229786,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.9971567831031681,
"signed_gap": -0.022412485680189498
}
],
"selective_accuracy": [
{
"threshold": 0.5,
"coverage": 0.8512727017740691,
"accuracy": 0.8517298187808896,
"risk": 0.1482701812191104,
"sample_count": 12140
},
{
"threshold": 0.6,
"coverage": 0.5052240375850221,
"accuracy": 0.9907009021512838,
"risk": 0.009299097848716187,
"sample_count": 7205
},
{
"threshold": 0.7,
"coverage": 0.385036112474581,
"accuracy": 0.996357676197414,
"risk": 0.0036423238025860005,
"sample_count": 5491
},
{
"threshold": 0.8,
"coverage": 0.27221092490007714,
"accuracy": 0.9976816074188563,
"risk": 0.0023183925811437467,
"sample_count": 3882
},
{
"threshold": 0.9,
"coverage": 0.17263866489026014,
"accuracy": 0.9971567831031681,
"risk": 0.0028432168968318683,
"sample_count": 2462
},
{
"threshold": 0.95,
"coverage": 0.12811163312530677,
"accuracy": 0.9978106185002736,
"risk": 0.0021893814997263616,
"sample_count": 1827
}
]
}
},
"overall": {
"count": 14261,
"top1_accuracy": 0.8317789776313022,
"nll": 0.6899501951292062,
"brier_score": 0.01078157515435976,
"ece": 0.17475665939191923,
"signed_calibration_error": -0.17475665939191926,
"kl_divergence": 0.021929131222482388,
"confidence_analysis": {
"correct": {
"count": 11862,
"mean": 0.6918767107513397,
"median": 0.6726522445678711,
"std": 0.19655097670181684,
"p25": 0.5013070702552795,
"p75": 0.8612504750490189
},
"incorrect": {
"count": 2399,
"mean": 0.4846826750643803,
"median": 0.5003705024719238,
"std": 0.07204632774177197,
"p25": 0.5000030398368835,
"p75": 0.5009814202785492
}
},
"confidence_histogram": [
{
"bucket": "0.0-0.1",
"sample_count": 0,
"average_confidence": null,
"empirical_accuracy": null,
"signed_gap": null
},
{
"bucket": "0.1-0.2",
"sample_count": 0,
"average_confidence": null,
"empirical_accuracy": null,
"signed_gap": null
},
{
"bucket": "0.2-0.3",
"sample_count": 147,
"average_confidence": 0.2777280737550891,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.5238095238095238,
"signed_gap": -0.2460814500544347
},
{
"bucket": "0.3-0.4",
"sample_count": 683,
"average_confidence": 0.3585107686928041,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.6705710102489019,
"signed_gap": -0.31206024155609774
},
{
"bucket": "0.4-0.5",
"sample_count": 1268,
"average_confidence": 0.4527624952915339,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.7626182965299685,
"signed_gap": -0.3098558012384346
},
{
"bucket": "0.5-0.6",
"sample_count": 4931,
"average_confidence": 0.5197877843296327,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.6481443926181302,
"signed_gap": -0.1283566082884975
},
{
"bucket": "0.6-0.7",
"sample_count": 1700,
"average_confidence": 0.648453773856163,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.971764705882353,
"signed_gap": -0.32331093202619
},
{
"bucket": "0.7-0.8",
"sample_count": 1614,
"average_confidence": 0.7490191450054022,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.993184634448575,
"signed_gap": -0.24416548944317273
},
{
"bucket": "0.8-0.9",
"sample_count": 1438,
"average_confidence": 0.8470762723510222,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.9986091794158554,
"signed_gap": -0.15153290706483313
},
{
"bucket": "0.9-1.0",
"sample_count": 2480,
"average_confidence": 0.9748169333704056,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.9971774193548387,
"signed_gap": -0.022360485984433076
}
],
"selective_accuracy": [
{
"threshold": 0.5,
"coverage": 0.8528854919009887,
"accuracy": 0.8517635451779989,
"risk": 0.1482364548220011,
"sample_count": 12163
},
{
"threshold": 0.6,
"coverage": 0.5071173129514059,
"accuracy": 0.9905973451327433,
"risk": 0.009402654867256666,
"sample_count": 7232
},
{
"threshold": 0.7,
"coverage": 0.3879110861790898,
"accuracy": 0.9963846710050615,
"risk": 0.003615328994938549,
"sample_count": 5532
},
{
"threshold": 0.8,
"coverage": 0.2747352920552556,
"accuracy": 0.9977029096477795,
"risk": 0.0022970903522204766,
"sample_count": 3918
},
{
"threshold": 0.9,
"coverage": 0.17390084846784937,
"accuracy": 0.9971774193548387,
"risk": 0.0028225806451612767,
"sample_count": 2480
},
{
"threshold": 0.95,
"coverage": 0.1289530888436996,
"accuracy": 0.9978249048395867,
"risk": 0.002175095160413254,
"sample_count": 1839
}
]
},
"by_kind": {
"noul": {
"count": 7298,
"top1_accuracy": 0.785420663195396,
"nll": 0.5104869575155893,
"brier_score": 0.0036984921896671963,
"ece": 0.10110112035656733,
"signed_calibration_error": -0.10110112035656733,
"kl_divergence": 0.005222588741121447
},
"choice": {
"count": 3620,
"top1_accuracy": 0.8878453038674033,
"nll": 0.7150685316522385,
"brier_score": 0.025474569714417146,
"ece": 0.19180384800249692,
"signed_calibration_error": -0.1913708825631695,
"kl_divergence": 0.0517853402277982
},
"score": {
"count": 3343,
"top1_accuracy": 0.8722704157941968,
"nll": 1.0545312091557688,
"brier_score": 0.010333982922507711,
"ece": 0.3175609178424345,
"signed_calibration_error": -0.3175609178424345,
"kl_divergence": 0.02607058214372944
}
}
},
"test_set_30k": {
"split": "test_set_30k",
"temperature": 1.0087398771573446,
"default_prediction": "raw",
"calibration_comparison": {
"raw": {
"count": 29955,
"top1_accuracy": 0.8783174762143214,
"nll": 0.7275528936233122,
"brier_score": 0.011974748942745073,
"ece": 0.21261039866795825,
"signed_calibration_error": -0.21261039866795825,
"kl_divergence": 0.024432378509165548,
"confidence_analysis": {
"correct": {
"count": 26310,
"mean": 0.6923632182076104,
"median": 0.6855365633964539,
"std": 0.18839890771208237,
"p25": 0.5365844368934631,
"p75": 0.8470587730407715
},
"incorrect": {
"count": 3645,
"mean": 0.47330020215612706,
"median": 0.5002900958061218,
"std": 0.08985571868253042,
"p25": 0.4233827590942383,
"p75": 0.5083926320075989
}
},
"confidence_histogram": [
{
"bucket": "0.0-0.1",
"sample_count": 0,
"average_confidence": null,
"empirical_accuracy": null,
"signed_gap": null
},
{
"bucket": "0.1-0.2",
"sample_count": 0,
"average_confidence": null,
"empirical_accuracy": null,
"signed_gap": null
},
{
"bucket": "0.2-0.3",
"sample_count": 381,
"average_confidence": 0.2765920148512197,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.5380577427821522,
"signed_gap": -0.26146572793093253
},
{
"bucket": "0.3-0.4",
"sample_count": 1833,
"average_confidence": 0.3562947420623871,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.6819421713038735,
"signed_gap": -0.3256474292414864
},
{
"bucket": "0.4-0.5",
"sample_count": 3110,
"average_confidence": 0.453800807217693,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.7758842443729903,
"signed_gap": -0.3220834371552973
},
{
"bucket": "0.5-0.6",
"sample_count": 7576,
"average_confidence": 0.5336691626399724,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.7331045406546991,
"signed_gap": -0.19943537801472666
},
{
"bucket": "0.6-0.7",
"sample_count": 4498,
"average_confidence": 0.6493556655979835,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.9717652289906625,
"signed_gap": -0.322409563392679
},
{
"bucket": "0.7-0.8",
"sample_count": 4177,
"average_confidence": 0.7498422517198851,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.9944936557337802,
"signed_gap": -0.24465140401389518
},
{
"bucket": "0.8-0.9",
"sample_count": 3578,
"average_confidence": 0.8478636906891978,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.9966461710452766,
"signed_gap": -0.14878248035607888
},
{
"bucket": "0.9-1.0",
"sample_count": 4802,
"average_confidence": 0.9666469068837037,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.9989587671803415,
"signed_gap": -0.032311860296637795
}
],
"selective_accuracy": [
{
"threshold": 0.5,
"coverage": 0.8222667334334836,
"accuracy": 0.911128253014494,
"risk": 0.08887174698550604,
"sample_count": 24631
},
{
"threshold": 0.6,
"coverage": 0.5693540310465699,
"accuracy": 0.9902081501026092,
"risk": 0.009791849897390792,
"sample_count": 17055
},
{
"threshold": 0.7,
"coverage": 0.41919545985645135,
"accuracy": 0.9968145257625229,
"risk": 0.0031854742374770595,
"sample_count": 12557
},
{
"threshold": 0.8,
"coverage": 0.27975296277749956,
"accuracy": 0.9979713603818616,
"risk": 0.0020286396181383726,
"sample_count": 8380
},
{
"threshold": 0.9,
"coverage": 0.16030712735770322,
"accuracy": 0.9989587671803415,
"risk": 0.0010412328196585108,
"sample_count": 4802
},
{
"threshold": 0.95,
"coverage": 0.10512435319646136,
"accuracy": 0.9990473166084471,
"risk": 0.0009526833915528554,
"sample_count": 3149
}
]
},
"temperature_scaled": {
"count": 29955,
"top1_accuracy": 0.8783174762143214,
"nll": 0.7275546697338052,
"brier_score": 0.011972585235064483,
"ece": 0.21411426520326776,
"signed_calibration_error": -0.21411426520326776,
"kl_divergence": 0.024434154619658775,
"confidence_analysis": {
"correct": {
"count": 26310,
"mean": 0.6907512556473029,
"median": 0.6833789020182605,
"std": 0.18842788470435384,
"p25": 0.5348970511061539,
"p75": 0.8448785357566411
},
"incorrect": {
"count": 3645,
"mean": 0.47257658429508326,
"median": 0.5002725776294035,
"std": 0.08986637932956622,
"p25": 0.4220838770870833,
"p75": 0.5076989910859387
}
},
"confidence_histogram": [
{
"bucket": "0.0-0.1",
"sample_count": 0,
"average_confidence": null,
"empirical_accuracy": null,
"signed_gap": null
},
{
"bucket": "0.1-0.2",
"sample_count": 0,
"average_confidence": null,
"empirical_accuracy": null,
"signed_gap": null
},
{
"bucket": "0.2-0.3",
"sample_count": 390,
"average_confidence": 0.27634097301133714,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.5384615384615384,
"signed_gap": -0.2621205654502013
},
{
"bucket": "0.3-0.4",
"sample_count": 1863,
"average_confidence": 0.3562694201166133,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.6833064949006978,
"signed_gap": -0.32703707478408456
},
{
"bucket": "0.4-0.5",
"sample_count": 3130,
"average_confidence": 0.45376280168734534,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.7757188498402556,
"signed_gap": -0.3219560481529103
},
{
"bucket": "0.5-0.6",
"sample_count": 7598,
"average_confidence": 0.5336581786337004,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.735588312713872,
"signed_gap": -0.20193013408017169
},
{
"bucket": "0.6-0.7",
"sample_count": 4503,
"average_confidence": 0.6492548349372119,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.9724628025760604,
"signed_gap": -0.3232079676388485
},
{
"bucket": "0.7-0.8",
"sample_count": 4183,
"average_confidence": 0.7496742909286859,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.9942624910351422,
"signed_gap": -0.24458820010645632
},
{
"bucket": "0.8-0.9",
"sample_count": 3536,
"average_confidence": 0.8476343941651755,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.9968891402714932,
"signed_gap": -0.14925474610631773
},
{
"bucket": "0.9-1.0",
"sample_count": 4752,
"average_confidence": 0.966535052125248,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.9989478114478114,
"signed_gap": -0.03241275932256338
}
],
"selective_accuracy": [
{
"threshold": 0.5,
"coverage": 0.8202971123351694,
"accuracy": 0.9115660100927886,
"risk": 0.08843398990721141,
"sample_count": 24572
},
{
"threshold": 0.6,
"coverage": 0.5666499749624436,
"accuracy": 0.9903381642512077,
"risk": 0.009661835748792313,
"sample_count": 16974
},
{
"threshold": 0.7,
"coverage": 0.41632448673009514,
"accuracy": 0.9967925587362682,
"risk": 0.0032074412637318472,
"sample_count": 12471
},
{
"threshold": 0.8,
"coverage": 0.2766816892004674,
"accuracy": 0.9980694980694981,
"risk": 0.0019305019305019266,
"sample_count": 8288
},
{
"threshold": 0.9,
"coverage": 0.1586379569354031,
"accuracy": 0.9989478114478114,
"risk": 0.001052188552188582,
"sample_count": 4752
},
{
"threshold": 0.95,
"coverage": 0.10392255049240527,
"accuracy": 0.9990362993896563,
"risk": 0.0009637006103436763,
"sample_count": 3113
}
]
}
},
"overall": {
"count": 29955,
"top1_accuracy": 0.8783174762143214,
"nll": 0.7275528936233122,
"brier_score": 0.011974748942745073,
"ece": 0.21261039866795825,
"signed_calibration_error": -0.21261039866795825,
"kl_divergence": 0.024432378509165548,
"confidence_analysis": {
"correct": {
"count": 26310,
"mean": 0.6923632182076104,
"median": 0.6855365633964539,
"std": 0.18839890771208237,
"p25": 0.5365844368934631,
"p75": 0.8470587730407715
},
"incorrect": {
"count": 3645,
"mean": 0.47330020215612706,
"median": 0.5002900958061218,
"std": 0.08985571868253042,
"p25": 0.4233827590942383,
"p75": 0.5083926320075989
}
},
"confidence_histogram": [
{
"bucket": "0.0-0.1",
"sample_count": 0,
"average_confidence": null,
"empirical_accuracy": null,
"signed_gap": null
},
{
"bucket": "0.1-0.2",
"sample_count": 0,
"average_confidence": null,
"empirical_accuracy": null,
"signed_gap": null
},
{
"bucket": "0.2-0.3",
"sample_count": 381,
"average_confidence": 0.2765920148512197,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.5380577427821522,
"signed_gap": -0.26146572793093253
},
{
"bucket": "0.3-0.4",
"sample_count": 1833,
"average_confidence": 0.3562947420623871,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.6819421713038735,
"signed_gap": -0.3256474292414864
},
{
"bucket": "0.4-0.5",
"sample_count": 3110,
"average_confidence": 0.453800807217693,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.7758842443729903,
"signed_gap": -0.3220834371552973
},
{
"bucket": "0.5-0.6",
"sample_count": 7576,
"average_confidence": 0.5336691626399724,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.7331045406546991,
"signed_gap": -0.19943537801472666
},
{
"bucket": "0.6-0.7",
"sample_count": 4498,
"average_confidence": 0.6493556655979835,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.9717652289906625,
"signed_gap": -0.322409563392679
},
{
"bucket": "0.7-0.8",
"sample_count": 4177,
"average_confidence": 0.7498422517198851,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.9944936557337802,
"signed_gap": -0.24465140401389518
},
{
"bucket": "0.8-0.9",
"sample_count": 3578,
"average_confidence": 0.8478636906891978,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.9966461710452766,
"signed_gap": -0.14878248035607888
},
{
"bucket": "0.9-1.0",
"sample_count": 4802,
"average_confidence": 0.9666469068837037,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.9989587671803415,
"signed_gap": -0.032311860296637795
}
],
"selective_accuracy": [
{
"threshold": 0.5,
"coverage": 0.8222667334334836,
"accuracy": 0.911128253014494,
"risk": 0.08887174698550604,
"sample_count": 24631
},
{
"threshold": 0.6,
"coverage": 0.5693540310465699,
"accuracy": 0.9902081501026092,
"risk": 0.009791849897390792,
"sample_count": 17055
},
{
"threshold": 0.7,
"coverage": 0.41919545985645135,
"accuracy": 0.9968145257625229,
"risk": 0.0031854742374770595,
"sample_count": 12557
},
{
"threshold": 0.8,
"coverage": 0.27975296277749956,
"accuracy": 0.9979713603818616,
"risk": 0.0020286396181383726,
"sample_count": 8380
},
{
"threshold": 0.9,
"coverage": 0.16030712735770322,
"accuracy": 0.9989587671803415,
"risk": 0.0010412328196585108,
"sample_count": 4802
},
{
"threshold": 0.95,
"coverage": 0.10512435319646136,
"accuracy": 0.9990473166084471,
"risk": 0.0009526833915528554,
"sample_count": 3149
}
]
},
"by_kind": {
"noul": {
"count": 12229,
"top1_accuracy": 0.8735791969907597,
"nll": 0.4913208432770474,
"brier_score": 0.003971773635485195,
"ece": 0.14664666192959913,
"signed_calibration_error": -0.14664666192959916,
"kl_divergence": 0.0052616524114012615
},
"choice": {
"count": 9199,
"top1_accuracy": 0.8891183824328731,
"nll": 0.7238766215674687,
"brier_score": 0.024050878430150635,
"ece": 0.19473382800328293,
"signed_calibration_error": -0.1947338280032829,
"kl_divergence": 0.048177643130987116
},
"score": {
"count": 8527,
"top1_accuracy": 0.8734607716664712,
"nll": 1.0703111638621037,
"brier_score": 0.010424387722836225,
"ece": 0.32649771074931644,
"signed_calibration_error": -0.3264977107493165,
"kl_divergence": 0.026309488887190972
}
}
},
"ood": {
"split": "ood",
"temperature": 1.0087398771573446,
"default_prediction": "raw",
"calibration_comparison": {
"raw": {
"count": 13058,
"top1_accuracy": 0.8785418900291009,
"nll": 0.8813702719923984,
"brier_score": 0.19665904522323993,
"ece": 0.0934735002333655,
"signed_calibration_error": 0.09338698955074462,
"kl_divergence": 0.8662859112694271,
"confidence_analysis": {
"correct": {
"count": 11472,
"mean": 0.9861596955215062,
"median": 0.9999983310699463,
"std": 0.07204877546218105,
"p25": 0.9999236762523651,
"p75": 0.9999998807907104
},
"incorrect": {
"count": 1586,
"mean": 0.8689932424532811,
"median": 0.9988584518432617,
"std": 0.21735096923047184,
"p25": 0.8063253164291382,
"p75": 0.9999670684337616
}
},
"confidence_histogram": [
{
"bucket": "0.0-0.1",
"sample_count": 0,
"average_confidence": null,
"empirical_accuracy": null,
"signed_gap": null
},
{
"bucket": "0.1-0.2",
"sample_count": 1,
"average_confidence": 0.19825825095176697,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.0,
"signed_gap": 0.19825825095176697
},
{
"bucket": "0.2-0.3",
"sample_count": 65,
"average_confidence": 0.256245233462407,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.23076923076923078,
"signed_gap": 0.025476002693176236
},
{
"bucket": "0.3-0.4",
"sample_count": 44,
"average_confidence": 0.34126521985639224,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.25,
"signed_gap": 0.09126521985639224
},
{
"bucket": "0.4-0.5",
"sample_count": 25,
"average_confidence": 0.4627038073539734,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.52,
"signed_gap": -0.057296192646026645
},
{
"bucket": "0.5-0.6",
"sample_count": 357,
"average_confidence": 0.5382261586790326,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.39775910364145656,
"signed_gap": 0.140467055037576
},
{
"bucket": "0.6-0.7",
"sample_count": 103,
"average_confidence": 0.6438586167918826,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.5825242718446602,
"signed_gap": 0.06133434494722245
},
{
"bucket": "0.7-0.8",
"sample_count": 100,
"average_confidence": 0.7468274587392807,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.61,
"signed_gap": 0.1368274587392807
},
{
"bucket": "0.8-0.9",
"sample_count": 172,
"average_confidence": 0.8525181381508361,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.6046511627906976,
"signed_gap": 0.24786697536013846
},
{
"bucket": "0.9-1.0",
"sample_count": 12191,
"average_confidence": 0.998132212653288,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.9077188089574276,
"signed_gap": 0.09041340369586037
}
],
"selective_accuracy": [
{
"threshold": 0.5,
"coverage": 0.989661510185327,
"accuracy": 0.8847016946529443,
"risk": 0.11529830534705565,
"sample_count": 12923
},
{
"threshold": 0.6,
"coverage": 0.9623219482309695,
"accuracy": 0.8985357313385326,
"risk": 0.1014642686614674,
"sample_count": 12566
},
{
"threshold": 0.7,
"coverage": 0.9544340634094042,
"accuracy": 0.9011473962930273,
"risk": 0.09885260370697269,
"sample_count": 12463
},
{
"threshold": 0.8,
"coverage": 0.9467759228059427,
"accuracy": 0.9035023861522284,
"risk": 0.09649761384777156,
"sample_count": 12363
},
{
"threshold": 0.9,
"coverage": 0.9336039209679889,
"accuracy": 0.9077188089574276,
"risk": 0.09228119104257237,
"sample_count": 12191
},
{
"threshold": 0.95,
"coverage": 0.9241078266196967,
"accuracy": 0.9104168393138311,
"risk": 0.0895831606861689,
"sample_count": 12067
}
]
},
"temperature_scaled": {
"count": 13058,
"top1_accuracy": 0.8785418900291009,
"nll": 0.8743518421149571,
"brier_score": 0.19656952511113734,
"ece": 0.09334952718772531,
"signed_calibration_error": 0.09325994317919446,
"kl_divergence": 0.8592674813919858,
"confidence_analysis": {
"correct": {
"count": 11472,
"mean": 0.9860722430341967,
"median": 0.9999981217543632,
"std": 0.07221466062590726,
"p25": 0.999917101407375,
"p75": 0.9999998629109141
},
"incorrect": {
"count": 1586,
"mean": 0.8685798019833653,
"median": 0.9987841752508422,
"std": 0.2175917495077864,
"p25": 0.8042375494799926,
"p75": 0.9999636629198553
}
},
"confidence_histogram": [
{
"bucket": "0.0-0.1",
"sample_count": 0,
"average_confidence": null,
"empirical_accuracy": null,
"signed_gap": null
},
{
"bucket": "0.1-0.2",
"sample_count": 1,
"average_confidence": 0.19798991716161005,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.0,
"signed_gap": 0.19798991716161005
},
{
"bucket": "0.2-0.3",
"sample_count": 67,
"average_confidence": 0.25693683657772004,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.22388059701492538,
"signed_gap": 0.03305623956279466
},
{
"bucket": "0.3-0.4",
"sample_count": 42,
"average_confidence": 0.3418979937441187,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.2619047619047619,
"signed_gap": 0.0799932318393568
},
{
"bucket": "0.4-0.5",
"sample_count": 25,
"average_confidence": 0.4615572793674953,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.52,
"signed_gap": -0.05844272063250472
},
{
"bucket": "0.5-0.6",
"sample_count": 358,
"average_confidence": 0.5379884025898151,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.3994413407821229,
"signed_gap": 0.13854706180769216
},
{
"bucket": "0.6-0.7",
"sample_count": 103,
"average_confidence": 0.6434854397989195,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.5825242718446602,
"signed_gap": 0.06096116795425932
},
{
"bucket": "0.7-0.8",
"sample_count": 103,
"average_confidence": 0.7474879529885827,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.6019417475728155,
"signed_gap": 0.14554620541576724
},
{
"bucket": "0.8-0.9",
"sample_count": 177,
"average_confidence": 0.8541454633210329,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.6045197740112994,
"signed_gap": 0.2496256893097335
},
{
"bucket": "0.9-1.0",
"sample_count": 12182,
"average_confidence": 0.9981466982229948,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.9079789853882778,
"signed_gap": 0.09016771283471703
}
],
"selective_accuracy": [
{
"threshold": 0.5,
"coverage": 0.989661510185327,
"accuracy": 0.8847016946529443,
"risk": 0.11529830534705565,
"sample_count": 12923
},
{
"threshold": 0.6,
"coverage": 0.9622453668249349,
"accuracy": 0.8985276561878233,
"risk": 0.10147234381217674,
"sample_count": 12565
},
{
"threshold": 0.7,
"coverage": 0.9543574820033696,
"accuracy": 0.9011394639704702,
"risk": 0.09886053602952982,
"sample_count": 12462
},
{
"threshold": 0.8,
"coverage": 0.9464695971818042,
"accuracy": 0.9036329800145643,
"risk": 0.09636701998543573,
"sample_count": 12359
},
{
"threshold": 0.9,
"coverage": 0.9329146883136774,
"accuracy": 0.9079789853882778,
"risk": 0.09202101461172218,
"sample_count": 12182
},
{
"threshold": 0.95,
"coverage": 0.9235717567774544,
"accuracy": 0.9104477611940298,
"risk": 0.08955223880597019,
"sample_count": 12060
}
]
}
},
"overall": {
"count": 13058,
"top1_accuracy": 0.8785418900291009,
"nll": 0.8813702719923984,
"brier_score": 0.19665904522323993,
"ece": 0.0934735002333655,
"signed_calibration_error": 0.09338698955074462,
"kl_divergence": 0.8662859112694271,
"confidence_analysis": {
"correct": {
"count": 11472,
"mean": 0.9861596955215062,
"median": 0.9999983310699463,
"std": 0.07204877546218105,
"p25": 0.9999236762523651,
"p75": 0.9999998807907104
},
"incorrect": {
"count": 1586,
"mean": 0.8689932424532811,
"median": 0.9988584518432617,
"std": 0.21735096923047184,
"p25": 0.8063253164291382,
"p75": 0.9999670684337616
}
},
"confidence_histogram": [
{
"bucket": "0.0-0.1",
"sample_count": 0,
"average_confidence": null,
"empirical_accuracy": null,
"signed_gap": null
},
{
"bucket": "0.1-0.2",
"sample_count": 1,
"average_confidence": 0.19825825095176697,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.0,
"signed_gap": 0.19825825095176697
},
{
"bucket": "0.2-0.3",
"sample_count": 65,
"average_confidence": 0.256245233462407,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.23076923076923078,
"signed_gap": 0.025476002693176236
},
{
"bucket": "0.3-0.4",
"sample_count": 44,
"average_confidence": 0.34126521985639224,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.25,
"signed_gap": 0.09126521985639224
},
{
"bucket": "0.4-0.5",
"sample_count": 25,
"average_confidence": 0.4627038073539734,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.52,
"signed_gap": -0.057296192646026645
},
{
"bucket": "0.5-0.6",
"sample_count": 357,
"average_confidence": 0.5382261586790326,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.39775910364145656,
"signed_gap": 0.140467055037576
},
{
"bucket": "0.6-0.7",
"sample_count": 103,
"average_confidence": 0.6438586167918826,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.5825242718446602,
"signed_gap": 0.06133434494722245
},
{
"bucket": "0.7-0.8",
"sample_count": 100,
"average_confidence": 0.7468274587392807,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.61,
"signed_gap": 0.1368274587392807
},
{
"bucket": "0.8-0.9",
"sample_count": 172,
"average_confidence": 0.8525181381508361,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.6046511627906976,
"signed_gap": 0.24786697536013846
},
{
"bucket": "0.9-1.0",
"sample_count": 12191,
"average_confidence": 0.998132212653288,
"empirical_accuracy": 0.9077188089574276,
"signed_gap": 0.09041340369586037
}
],
"selective_accuracy": [
{
"threshold": 0.5,
"coverage": 0.989661510185327,
"accuracy": 0.8847016946529443,
"risk": 0.11529830534705565,
"sample_count": 12923
},
{
"threshold": 0.6,
"coverage": 0.9623219482309695,
"accuracy": 0.8985357313385326,
"risk": 0.1014642686614674,
"sample_count": 12566
},
{
"threshold": 0.7,
"coverage": 0.9544340634094042,
"accuracy": 0.9011473962930273,
"risk": 0.09885260370697269,
"sample_count": 12463
},
{
"threshold": 0.8,
"coverage": 0.9467759228059427,
"accuracy": 0.9035023861522284,
"risk": 0.09649761384777156,
"sample_count": 12363
},
{
"threshold": 0.9,
"coverage": 0.9336039209679889,
"accuracy": 0.9077188089574276,
"risk": 0.09228119104257237,
"sample_count": 12191
},
{
"threshold": 0.95,
"coverage": 0.9241078266196967,
"accuracy": 0.9104168393138311,
"risk": 0.0895831606861689,
"sample_count": 12067
}
]
},
"by_kind": {
"noul": {
"count": 9767,
"top1_accuracy": 0.9117436264973892,
"nll": 0.6845514018050354,
"brier_score": 0.1665514502307479,
"ece": 0.07861264344307467,
"signed_calibration_error": 0.07850355333421202,
"kl_divergence": 0.6845514018050354
},
"choice": {
"count": 3219,
"top1_accuracy": 0.791860826343585,
"nll": 1.4607612426226197,
"brier_score": 0.2742619765350296,
"ece": 0.13922969467819907,
"signed_calibration_error": 0.13852634314944115,
"kl_divergence": 1.399570940565907
},
"score": {
"count": 72,
"top1_accuracy": 0.25,
"nll": 1.6767920867325716,
"brier_score": 0.8113402174318239,
"ece": 0.1267397738993168,
"signed_calibration_error": 0.09426118806004524,
"kl_divergence": 1.6767920867325716
}
}
}
}