date_resolve_at stringlengths 10 10 | date_begin stringlengths 10 10 | extracted_urls sequencelengths 0 25 | question_type stringclasses 1
value | url stringlengths 37 41 | background stringlengths 0 11.1k | resolution_criteria stringlengths 0 8.52k | is_resolved bool 1
class | date_close stringlengths 10 10 | question stringlengths 16 209 | data_source stringclasses 1
value | resolution int64 0 1 | nr_forecasters int64 0 3.65k |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025-02-11 | 2025-02-04 | [
"https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2025-01-31/pdf/2025-02096.pdf)",
"https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/user_uploaded/Screenshot_2025-02-01_at_12.01.20%C3%A2PM.png)"
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34262 | According to Donald Trump's executive order [Restoring Names That Honor American Greatness](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2025-01-31/pdf/2025-02096.pdf) signed January 20, 2025: 
> The area formerly known as the Gulf of Mexico has long been an integral asset to our once burgeoning Nation and has remained... | This question resolves as **Yes** if the [National Map](https://apps.nationalmap.gov/viewer/) refers to the body of water west of Florida, south of Louisiana, and north of Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula as the Gulf of America before March 1, 2025. If it is not referred to as the Gulf of America on that date, this resolves ... | true | 2025-02-28 | Will the body of water currently called the "Gulf of Mexico" on the National Map be renamed the "Gulf of America" before March 1, 2025? | metaculus | 1 | 19 |
2025-02-11 | 2025-02-07 | [
"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_LIX)"
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34201 | The Super Bowl [is scheduled](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_LIX) for February 9, 2025. | This question resolves as **Yes** if Joe Biden and/or Kamala Harris is anywhere within the grounds of the stadium during Super Bowl LIX, according to public reports. Otherwise this resolves as No. | true | 2025-02-07 | Will Joe Biden and/or Kamala Harris attend the Super Bowl in 2025? | metaculus | 0 | 24 |
2025-02-11 | 2025-02-07 | [
"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_LIX)"
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34200 | The Super Bowl [is scheduled](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_LIX) for February 9, 2025. | This question resolves as **Yes** if Elon Musk is anywhere within the grounds of the stadium during Super Bowl LIX, according to public reports. Otherwise this resolves as No. | true | 2025-02-07 | Will Elon Musk attend the Super Bowl in 2025? | metaculus | 0 | 26 |
2025-02-10 | 2025-02-06 | [
"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_LIX)"
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34199 | The Super Bowl [is scheduled](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_LIX) for February 9, 2025. | This question resolves as **Yes** if President Donald Trump is anywhere within the grounds of the stadium during Super Bowl LIX, according to public reports. Otherwise this resolves as No. | true | 2025-02-06 | Will Donald Trump attend the Super Bowl in 2025? | metaculus | 1 | 27 |
2025-02-11 | 2025-02-06 | [
"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_LIX)"
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34198 | The Super Bowl [is scheduled](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_LIX) for February 9, 2025. | This question resolves as **Yes** if Rihanna, Jay-Z and/or Beyonce appear at the halftime show on the official broadcast of Super Bowl LIX. Otherwise, this resolves as **No**. Any appearance will count, including remotely or pre-recorded, as long as it is during the halftime show on the official broadcast. | true | 2025-02-06 | Will Rihanna, Jay-Z and/or Beyonce appear at the Super Bowl halftime show in 2025? | metaculus | 0 | 27 |
2025-02-11 | 2025-02-06 | [
"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_LIX)"
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34197 | The Super Bowl [is scheduled](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_LIX) for February 9, 2025. | This question resolves as **Yes** if Geico, State Farm, and/or Progressive run a television commercial on the official broadcast of Super Bowl LIX. Otherwise, this resolves as **No**. | true | 2025-02-06 | Will Geico, State Farm, or Progressive run an ad at the Super Bowl in 2025? | metaculus | 0 | 26 |
2025-02-10 | 2025-02-03 | [
"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_LIX)"
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34186 | The Super Bowl [is scheduled](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_LIX) for February 9, 2025. | This question resolves as **Yes** if OpenAI, Anthropic, and/or Perplexity run a television commercial on the official broadcast of Super Bowl LIX. Otherwise, this resolves as **No**. | true | 2025-02-03 | Will OpenAI, Anthropic, or Perplexity run an ad at the Super Bowl in 2025? | metaculus | 1 | 26 |
2025-02-11 | 2025-02-03 | [
"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_LIX)"
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34185 | The Super Bowl [is scheduled](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_LIX) for February 9, 2025. | This question resolves as **Yes** if Apple runs a television commercial on the official broadcast of Super Bowl LIX. If this does not occur, this resolves as **No**. For purposes of this question, we define television commercial as "a short video that is broadcast on television to promote a product, service, or brand."... | true | 2025-02-03 | Will Apple run an ad at the Super Bowl in 2025? | metaculus | 0 | 25 |
2025-01-30 | 2025-01-28 | [] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/33752 | As of December 28, 2024, Virgin Galactic's most recent post was timestamped December 12, 2024. The most recent one before then was July 10, 2024. | This question resolves as **Yes** if no new posts appear at Virgin Galactic's News page, which can be accessed at [this address](https://www.virgingalactic.com/news), timestamped after the launch of this question and before Apir 1, 2025. If there is a new post, then this question resolves as **No**. | true | 2025-01-28 | Will Virgin Galactic fail to make make any new posts on its News page before April 1, 2025? | metaculus | 0 | 17 |
2025-02-11 | 2025-01-27 | [
"https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-28-2024)",
"https://www.politico.eu/article/russian-victory-over-ukranian-key-city-chasiv-yar-jeopardize-entire-donetsk-region/)",
"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_Oblast).",
"https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/w... | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/33742 | On June 28, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) [reported](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-28-2024) Russian troops advancing in the easternmost parts of Chasiv Yar, with significant fighting ongoing in the area.
[Reporting suggests](https://www.polit... | This question will resolve based on the status of these coordinates on the Institute for the Study of War's [Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) when accessed by Metaculus on or after January 30, 2025:
48°35'13.7"N 37°50'02.1"E
If this point on the map... | true | 2025-01-27 | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on January 30, 2025? | metaculus | 1 | 23 |
2025-02-11 | 2025-01-27 | [
"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm),"
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/33738 | According to the Federal Reserve's [target funds rate history page](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), the most recent rate cuts were on November 8, 2024 and September 19, 2024, after a few years of relatively higher and rising interest rates. Previous cuts were on March 16, 2020, and March ... | This question resolves as **Yes** if, after the launch of this question and before February 1, 2024 the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces a reduction of any amount in the target federal funds rate range.
The primary resolution source is the FOMC's *target federal funds rate or range* webpage [here](https:/... | true | 2025-01-27 | Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates before February 1, 2025? | metaculus | 0 | 21 |
2025-02-11 | 2025-01-23 | [
"https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/S%26P_500_index):"
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31318 | According to the [Bogleheads investment resource site](https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/S%26P_500_index): "The S&P 500 index is a market weighted index of 500 U.S. stocks, selected and monitored by Standard and Poors. The index dates back to 1923, when Standard and Poors introduced an index containing 233 companies. The... | This question will resolve as Yes if the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on the final trading day of January 2025 is higher than that of the final trading day of December 2024. The "close" values shown on the [history page of Yahoo finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history?p=%5EGSPC) will be used. | true | 2025-01-23 | Will the S&P 500 index go up in January 2025? | metaculus | 1 | 22 |
2025-02-14 | 2025-01-27 | [
"https://www.cbsnews.com/news/why-is-tiktok-being-banned-supreme-court-congress/)",
"https://apnews.com/article/tiktok-ban-executive-order-trump-0bbae2d2d6f102944f41bb75ad40ce69)",
"https://www.forbes.com/sites/monicamercuri/2025/01/22/when-will-tiktok-be-back-in-app-stores-what-could-happen-without-updates/)"
... | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31302 | The United States Congress [passed a law](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/why-is-tiktok-being-banned-supreme-court-congress/) that bans TikTok from the US starting January 20, 2025, but President Trump [issued an executive order](https://apnews.com/article/tiktok-ban-executive-order-trump-0bbae2d2d6f102944f41bb75ad40ce69)... | This question will resolve as **Yes** if at any point after January 25, 2025 and before April 5, 2025, TikTok is available for download in the US from both the App Store and Google Play without the use of VPNs or other technical workarounds. * If the app is simultaneously available for any amount of time from both loca... | true | 2025-03-31 | Will TikTok become available in the US on both the App Store and Google Play before April 5, 2025? | metaculus | 1 | 149 |
2025-01-21 | 2025-01-20 | [
"https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/transcript/donald-trump-press-conference-mar-a-lago-january-7-2025/):&",
"https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2015/08/30/obama-rename-nations-tallest-mountain/71426656/)",
"https://www.usgs.gov/us-board-on-geographic-names),",
"https://edits.nationalmap.gov/apps/g... | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31036 | In a press conference on January 7, 2025, President-Elect Donald Trump [said](https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/transcript/donald-trump-press-conference-mar-a-lago-january-7-2025/): 
> We're going to be changing the name of the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America, which has a beautiful ring. That covers a lot... | This question resolves as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2025, the United States federal government officially announces the plan or action of changing the name of the Gulf of Mexico. This can come through an official action of the Executive Branch (e.g., a presidential order, an administration action by the Department of... | true | 2025-03-13 | Will the US government announce the renaming of the Gulf of Mexico before April 1, 2025? | metaculus | 1 | 17 |
2025-01-23 | 2025-01-06 | [
"https://www.vogue.com/article/everything-you-need-to-know-2025-oscars](https://www.vogue.com/article/everything-you-need-to-know-2025-oscars)",
"https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/2025-golden-globes-best-actress-drama-fernanda-torres-1236098810/](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-ne... | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30973 | The 2025 Oscar nominations will be revealed on Friday, January 17.
[https://www.vogue.com/article/everything-you-need-to-know-2025-oscars](https://www.vogue.com/article/everything-you-need-to-know-2025-oscars)
Fernanda Torres just won a best actress award at the Golden Globes
[https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movi... | announcement on the Oscars website or media. | true | 2025-01-17 | Will Fernanda Torres be nominated for an Oscar in 2025? | metaculus | 1 | 18 |
2025-02-01 | 2025-01-06 | [
"https://www.brusselstimes.com/1317593/belgiums-government-formation-for-dummies](https://www.brusselstimes.com/1317593/belgiums-government-formation-for-dummies)",
"https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2025/01/02/federal-coalition-negotiators-meet-for-the-first-time-this-year/](https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2025/01/02/fe... | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30971 | Coalition talks in Belgium tend to take a long time. In 2020, the country broke its own record as it spent 652 days without a government. 
[https://www.brusselstimes.com/1317593/belgiums-government-formation-for-dummies](https://www.brusselstimes.com/1317593/belgiums-government-formation-for-dummies)
Coalition t... | In Belgium new governments get sworn in by the king - f.e.
[https://www.brusselstimes.com/133722/new-belgian-government-is-sworn-in-by-the-king](https://www.brusselstimes.com/133722/new-belgian-government-is-sworn-in-by-the-king)
Hence this question will resolve as yes if they king swears in a new government by the e... | true | 2025-01-31 | Will Belgium have a new government by the end of January 2025? | metaculus | 0 | 18 |
2025-02-01 | 2025-01-05 | [
"https://www.mpi.govt.nz/news/media-releases/biosecurity-new-zealand-investigating-and-boosting-trapping-after-auckland-fruit-fly-find/](https://www.mpi.govt.nz/news/media-releases/biosecurity-new-zealand-investigating-and-boosting-trapping-after-auckland-fruit-fly-find/)"
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30958 | A single male Oriental fruit fly was found in a surveillance trap in a suburban backyard in Auckland, New Zealand at the beginning of January 2025.
[https://www.mpi.govt.nz/news/media-releases/biosecurity-new-zealand-investigating-and-boosting-trapping-after-auckland-fruit-fly-find/](https://www.mpi.govt.nz/news/media... | an official announcement about further finds at [https://www.mpi.govt.nz/news/media-releases/](https://www.mpi.govt.nz/news/media-releases/) if no official press release is made but articles in Stuff or NZHerald present credible sources, this will also resolve as yes. | true | 2025-01-31 | Will another Oriental fruit fly be found in New Zealand in January 2025 | metaculus | 0 | 19 |
2025-01-20 | 2025-01-03 | [
"https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/815),",
"https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/815/text",
"https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/04/24/tiktok-could-be-banned-in-9-months-heres-what-may-stop-that/),",
"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TikTok).",
"https://www.nbcne... | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30902 | On April 24, 2024, President Joe Biden signed [H.R. 815](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/815), an emergency appropriations bill which incorporated the [*Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act*](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/815/text#:~:t... | This question will resolve as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that a ban on TikTok is in effect in the United States on January 20, 2025, in accordance with the *Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act* passed as part of [H.R. 815](https:/... | true | 2025-01-19 | Will the TikTok ban be in effect in the United States on January 20, 2025? | metaculus | 1 | 455 |
2025-01-23 | 2025-01-09 | [
"https://www.nps.gov/subjects/inauguration/schedule-of-events.htm).",
"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_inauguration)",
"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_inauguration",
"https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/12/politics/trump-foreign-leaders-inauguration-invites/index.htm... | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30900 | President-elect Donald Trump is scheduled to be [inaugurated on January 20, 2025](https://www.nps.gov/subjects/inauguration/schedule-of-events.htm). During a [presidential inauguration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_inauguration) the incoming president takes the oath of office and formally as... | This question will resolve as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that Benjamin Netanyahu attended in-person the presidential inauguration of Donald Trump on January 20, 2025. * For the purposes of this question, attending the inauguration will mean attendance at any part of... | true | 2025-01-20 | [Short fuse] Will Benjamin Netanyahu attend Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20, 2025? | metaculus | 0 | 10 |
2025-02-01 | 2025-01-03 | [
"https://advocacy.calchamber.com/2024/10/01/east-coast-gulf-ports-on-strike-as-of-october-1-economic-stakes-high/)",
"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_port_strike)",
"https://apnews.com/article/port-strike-ila-dockworkers-begins-e5468e760f46a64e4322d1702beb1f72).",
"https://www.supplychaindive... | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30877 | On October 1, 2024, [45,000 port workers at 36 U.S. ports](https://advocacy.calchamber.com/2024/10/01/east-coast-gulf-ports-on-strike-as-of-october-1-economic-stakes-high/) in the East and Gulf coasts [went on strike](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_port_strike) demanding, besides a pay rise, a [comple... | This question resolves as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that a strike by ILA workers has begun before February 1, 2025 EST. * An announcement of an impending strike would not be sufficient to resolve this question. If a strike begins and is later stopped for whatever r... | true | 2025-02-01 | Will the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) go on strike before February 1, 2025? | metaculus | 0 | 335 |
2025-01-24 | 2025-01-03 | [
"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Three_\\(tennis\\)",
"https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10144039-rafael-nadal-loses-in-final-match-of-legendary-tennis-career-at-2024-davis-cup)",
"https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/sports/tennis/top-stories/last-of-big-four-novak-djokovic-battles-on/articleshow/114155909.... | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30854 | The [Big Four](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Three_\(tennis\)#Big_Four_era) professional tennis players are Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer and Andy Murray, known for their dominance in men's singles tennis over the last two decades. Djokovic is the last of the Big Four to remain active after Rafael Nad... | This question resolves as **Yes** if Novak Djokovic wins the men's singles championship at the 2025 Australian Open. If the 2025 Australian Open does not take place and conclude before February 2, 2025, this question will be **annulled**. | true | 2025-01-26 | Will Novak Djokovic win the Australian Open? | metaculus | 0 | 333 |
2025-02-01 | 2024-12-17 | [
"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equal_Rights_Amendment)",
"https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-labor-report/biden-pressured-to-publish-equal-rights-amendment-on-his-way-out)",
"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Article_Five_of_the_United_States_Constitution",
"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Promulgation",
"https:... | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30799 | The [Equal Rights Amendment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equal_Rights_Amendment) (ERA) is a proposed amendment to the U.S. Constitution that seeks to guarantee equal legal rights regardless of sex. Initially approved by Congress in 1972, it required ratification by 38 states within a seven-year deadline to be adopted... | This question resolves as **Yes** if, before the end of Joe Biden's presidential term, the [Equal Rights Amendment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equal_Rights_Amendment) is certified and published in the [Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/current "Federal Register"). | true | 2025-01-20 | Before the end of President Biden's term, will the Equal Rights Amendment be certified and published? | metaculus | 0 | 13 |
2025-01-03 | 2024-12-13 | [
"https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/000300.SS/),",
"https://vlab.stern.nyu.edu/volatility/VOL.SHSZ300%3AIND-R.GARCH),",
"https://www.eiu.com/n/china-launches-financial-bazooka-to-lift-economy/)",
"https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/07/business/china-stocks-csi-300.html)",
"https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/09/busin... | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30797 | The [CSI 300 Index](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/000300.SS/), which tracks the largest companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, has experienced a period of [heightened volatility](https://vlab.stern.nyu.edu/volatility/VOL.SHSZ300%3AIND-R.GARCH), following a series of policy announcements by the... | This question resolves as Yes if the closing value of the [CSI 300](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CSI_300_Index) stock index at market close on December 31, 2024 is less than or equal to 3,900, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/000300.SS/history/), using the "Close" column. - Metaculus will r... | true | 2024-12-14 | Will the value of China's CSI 300 stock index at market close on December 31st, 2024 be less than or equal to 3,900? | metaculus | 0 | 29 |
2025-01-03 | 2024-12-13 | [
"https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/000300.SS/),",
"https://vlab.stern.nyu.edu/volatility/VOL.SHSZ300%3AIND-R.GARCH),",
"https://www.eiu.com/n/china-launches-financial-bazooka-to-lift-economy/)",
"https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/07/business/china-stocks-csi-300.html)",
"https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/09/busin... | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30796 | The [CSI 300 Index](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/000300.SS/), which tracks the largest companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, has experienced a period of [heightened volatility](https://vlab.stern.nyu.edu/volatility/VOL.SHSZ300%3AIND-R.GARCH), following a series of policy announcements by the... | This question resolves as Yes if the closing value of the [CSI 300](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CSI_300_Index) stock index at market close on December 31, 2024 is greater than 3,900 and less than 4,150, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/000300.SS/history/), using the "Close" column. - Metac... | true | 2024-12-14 | Will the value of China's CSI 300 stock index at market close on December 31st, 2024 be greater than 3,900 and less than 4,150? | metaculus | 1 | 29 |
2025-01-03 | 2024-12-13 | [
"https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/000300.SS/),",
"https://vlab.stern.nyu.edu/volatility/VOL.SHSZ300%3AIND-R.GARCH),",
"https://www.eiu.com/n/china-launches-financial-bazooka-to-lift-economy/)",
"https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/07/business/china-stocks-csi-300.html)",
"https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/09/busin... | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30795 | The [CSI 300 Index](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/000300.SS/), which tracks the largest companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, has experienced a period of [heightened volatility](https://vlab.stern.nyu.edu/volatility/VOL.SHSZ300%3AIND-R.GARCH), following a series of policy announcements by the... | This question resolves as Yes if the closing value of the [CSI 300](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CSI_300_Index) stock index at market close on December 31, 2024 is greater than or equal to 4,150, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/000300.SS/history/), using the "Close" column. - Metaculus wil... | true | 2024-12-14 | Will the value of China's CSI 300 stock index at market close on December 31st, 2024 be greater than or equal to 4,150? | metaculus | 0 | 29 |
2025-01-03 | 2024-12-13 | [
"https://www.tsa.gov/news/press/releases/2024/06/24/tsa-breaks-record-most-individuals-screened-single-day-readies)",
"https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tsa-airport-security-screen-record-3-million/)"
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30794 | In June 2024, the TSA broke the record for the most passengers screened in a single day, with TSA Administrator David Pekoske [saying](https://www.tsa.gov/news/press/releases/2024/06/24/tsa-breaks-record-most-individuals-screened-single-day-readies) "The traveling public is on the move, which is a sign of a healthy eco... | This question resolves as **Yes** if the total volume of passengers (in millions) screened by the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) at its checkpoints for the 7-day period from December 25, 2024 through December 31, 2024 are less than or equal to 17 million. TSA posts the data at the following link: https://... | true | 2024-12-14 | Will US airline passenger volume be for the week of Christmas through New Years Eve 2024 be less than or equal to 17 million, according to the TSA? | metaculus | 0 | 30 |
2025-01-03 | 2024-12-13 | [
"https://www.tsa.gov/news/press/releases/2024/06/24/tsa-breaks-record-most-individuals-screened-single-day-readies)",
"https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tsa-airport-security-screen-record-3-million/)"
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30793 | In June 2024, the TSA broke the record for the most passengers screened in a single day, with TSA Administrator David Pekoske [saying](https://www.tsa.gov/news/press/releases/2024/06/24/tsa-breaks-record-most-individuals-screened-single-day-readies) "The traveling public is on the move, which is a sign of a healthy eco... | This question resolves as **Yes** if the total volume of passengers (in millions) screened by the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) at its checkpoints for the 7-day period from December 25, 2024 through December 31, 2024 are greater than 17 million and less than 18 million. TSA posts the data at the followin... | true | 2024-12-14 | Will US airline passenger volume be for the week of Christmas through New Years Eve 2024 be greater than 17 million and less than 18 million, according to the TSA? | metaculus | 0 | 30 |
2025-01-03 | 2024-12-13 | [
"https://www.tsa.gov/news/press/releases/2024/06/24/tsa-breaks-record-most-individuals-screened-single-day-readies)",
"https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tsa-airport-security-screen-record-3-million/)"
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30792 | In June 2024, the TSA broke the record for the most passengers screened in a single day, with TSA Administrator David Pekoske [saying](https://www.tsa.gov/news/press/releases/2024/06/24/tsa-breaks-record-most-individuals-screened-single-day-readies) "The traveling public is on the move, which is a sign of a healthy eco... | This question resolves as **Yes** if the total volume of passengers (in millions) screened by the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) at its checkpoints for the 7-day period from December 25, 2024 through December 31, 2024 are greater than or equal to 18 million and less than or equal to 19 million. TSA posts ... | true | 2024-12-14 | Will US airline passenger volume be for the week of Christmas through New Years Eve 2024 be greater than or equal to 18 million and less than or equal to 19 million, according to the TSA? | metaculus | 1 | 28 |
2025-01-03 | 2024-12-13 | [
"https://www.tsa.gov/news/press/releases/2024/06/24/tsa-breaks-record-most-individuals-screened-single-day-readies)",
"https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tsa-airport-security-screen-record-3-million/)"
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30791 | In June 2024, the TSA broke the record for the most passengers screened in a single day, with TSA Administrator David Pekoske [saying](https://www.tsa.gov/news/press/releases/2024/06/24/tsa-breaks-record-most-individuals-screened-single-day-readies) "The traveling public is on the move, which is a sign of a healthy eco... | This question resolves as **Yes** if the total volume of passengers (in millions) screened by the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) at its checkpoints for the 7-day period from December 25, 2024 through December 31, 2024 are greater than 19 million. TSA posts the data at the following link: https://www.tsa.g... | true | 2024-12-14 | Will US airline passenger volume be for the week of Christmas through New Years Eve 2024 be greater than 19 million, according to the TSA? | metaculus | 0 | 29 |
2025-01-03 | 2024-12-13 | [
"https://www.blueorigin.com/),",
"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeff_Bezos),",
"https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/12/intrigue-swirls-as-blue-origin-races-toward-year-end-deadline-for-new-glenn/)",
"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Glenn)",
"https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/company-news/2024/08/21/bezo... | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30787 | Aerospace company [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com/), founded by [Jeff Bezos](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeff_Bezos), is preparing for the [inaugural launch](https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/12/intrigue-swirls-as-blue-origin-races-toward-year-end-deadline-for-new-glenn/) of its highly anticipated [New Glen... | This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, Blue Origin's New Glenn launch vehicle leaves the launchpad under its own power.
If this does not occur before January 1, 2025, this question will resolve as **No**. - This question refers to an integrated configuration of the launch vehicle, consisting... | true | 2024-12-14 | Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025? | metaculus | 0 | 29 |
2025-01-01 | 2024-12-12 | [] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30741 | As of December 11, 2024, Michael Jordan's net worth was listed as $3.5 billion, according to Forbes, while Howard Schultz's net worth was $3.4 billion. | This question resolves as **Yes** if according to the [Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#482980403d78) Michael Jordan has a higher net worth than Howard Schultz on December 31, 2024. Otherwise, this question resolves as **No**. If there is a tie when looking at dollar va... | true | 2024-12-13 | Will Michael Jordan's net worth exceed that of Starbucks founder Howard Schultz on December 31, 2024? | metaculus | 1 | 31 |
2024-12-30 | 2024-12-12 | [] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30740 | As of December 11, 2024, this price was $44,990 | This question resolves as **Yes** if, on December 30, 2024, the cheapest Tesla Model Y for US buyers is offered at the Tesla website for under $44,990. If the price is greater than or equal to $44,990, this question resolves as **No**. On of after December 30, 2024, Metaculus Admins will access the Model Y design page,... | true | 2024-12-13 | Will the cheapest new Tesla Model Y be listed as under $44,990 on December 30, 2024? | metaculus | 0 | 30 |
2025-01-05 | 2024-12-13 | [
"https://kyivindependent.com/the-russian-weapons-in-the-balance-of-syrias-regime-shift/)"
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30735 | On December 8, 2024, a coalition of Syrian rebels entered Damascus, ultimately ousting President Bashar al-Assad, who fled to Moscow and was granted political asylum by the Russian government. 
Russia has had tens of thousands of troops deployed in Syria over the years, with [several thousand remaining](https://k... | This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 5, 2025, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that at least one of the following has occurred:
1. The majority of the Russian soldiers that were stationed in Syria in November, 2024 have withdrawn from the country.
2. There are f... | true | 2024-12-31 | Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025? | metaculus | 0 | 69 |
2024-12-20 | 2024-12-11 | [
"https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/ski-pass-holders-expecting-discounts-as-bc-mountains-remain-closed)"
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30726 | Vancouver Sun February 2024: ['Feels like a ripoff': Ski pass holders expecting discounts as some B.C. mountains remain closed](https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/ski-pass-holders-expecting-discounts-as-bc-mountains-remain-closed) | This question resolves as **Yes** if On the Snow's Grouse Mountain Snow Report, currently located [here](https://www.onthesnow.com/british-columbia/grouse-mountain/skireport), reports the ski resort's operating status as Open when accessed by Metaculus on or after December 20, 2024. If it is reported as Closed, this qu... | true | 2024-12-12 | Will the Grouse Mountain ski resort be listed as Open by On the Snow's Ski Report on December 20, 2024? | metaculus | 1 | 30 |
2025-01-01 | 2024-12-11 | [
"https://abcnews.go.com/US/half-us-experiencing-drought-affect-food-industry/story?id=115102946)"
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30725 | [Almost half of the US is experiencing drought. How that can affect the food industry.](https://abcnews.go.com/US/half-us-experiencing-drought-affect-food-industry/story?id=115102946) | This question resolves as **Yes** if Drought Monitor at [this link](https://www.drought.gov/current-conditions) lists greater than or equal to 100.0 million people in the U.S. affected by drought, when the link is accessed by Metaculus on or after December 31, 2024. If the number is below 100.0 million, this question r... | true | 2024-12-12 | Will the United States have 100.0 million or more residents living in drought on December 31, 2024? | metaculus | 1 | 30 |
2024-12-25 | 2024-12-11 | [
"https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-mojo-by-imdbpro-faq/GCWTV4MQKGWRAUAP",
"https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-by-imdbpro-glossary/GN8HA87MT4597FSW?ref_=mojo_ftr_glossary"
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30724 | Box Office Mojo generally [defines](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-mojo-by-imdbpro-faq/GCWTV4MQKGWRAUAP#domesticinternational) "domestic" as gross box-office revenue from North America (U.S., Canada, and Puerto Rico). According to the [Box Office by IMDbPro Glossary](https://help.imd... | This question resolves as **Yes** if the domestic box office for the opening weekend of Homestead, according to the tracking page on [Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt29137778/?ref_=bo_se_r_1) exceeds USD $7,000,000.00. If the number is less than or equal to that, then this question resolves as **... | true | 2024-12-12 | Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Homestead, scheduled to open December 20, 2024, exceed $7,000,000? | metaculus | 0 | 28 |
2025-01-03 | 2024-12-11 | [
"https://www.thestar.com/news/ontario/ford-rules-out-ontario-election-in-2024-but-could-call-an-early-election-in-2025/article_12533cae-3492-55f5-90ee-fb0cad937426.html)"
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30723 | Premier Doug Ford from the Canadian Province of Ontario has ruled out the possibility of an election in 2024 but has not definitively ruled out calling an early election in 2025. While the province’s next fixed election date is scheduled for June 2026, Ford has stated that preparations for potential elections are under... | This question will resolve as **Yes** if before Jan 1, 2025, Ontario provincial elections are called and voting is scheduled to take place before January 1, 2026. If no elections are called before Jan 1, 2025, or if elections are called but voting is scheduled for 2026, this question will resolve as **No**. This questi... | true | 2024-12-12 | Before Jan 1, 2025, will Ontario Premier Doug Ford call an early provincial election scheduled for 2025? | metaculus | 0 | 29 |
2025-01-01 | 2024-12-12 | [
"https://www.blueorigin.com/),",
"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeff_Bezos),",
"https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/12/intrigue-swirls-as-blue-origin-races-toward-year-end-deadline-for-new-glenn/)",
"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Glenn)",
"https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/company-news/2024/08/21/bezo... | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30654 | Aerospace company [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com/), founded by [Jeff Bezos](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeff_Bezos), is preparing for the [inaugural launch](https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/12/intrigue-swirls-as-blue-origin-races-toward-year-end-deadline-for-new-glenn/) of its highly anticipated [New Glen... | This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, Blue Origin's New Glenn launch vehicle leaves the launchpad under its own power.
If this does not occur before January 1, 2025, this question will resolve as **No**. * This question refers to an integrated configuration of the launch vehicle, consisting... | true | 2025-01-01 | Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025? | metaculus | 0 | 74 |
2025-01-03 | 2024-12-10 | [] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30641 | As of October 8, 2024, Elon Musk is ranked first on the list, with $260.8B. Larry Ellison is ranked 2nd, with $211.6 B. Mark Zuckerberg is 3rd, with $205.0 B. Jeff Bezos was 4th, with 200.9B. Bernard Arnault & family
was 5th, with $183.1B. And Warren Buffett with 6th, with $142.2B. | This question resolves as **Yes** if according to the [Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#482980403d78) Jeff Bezos is in 2nd place or better on December 31, 2024. Otherwise, this question resolves as **No**. A tie will count as **Yes**. If the resolution source is unavail... | true | 2024-12-11 | Will Jeff Bezos be ranked in the top 2 of the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on December 31, 2024? | metaculus | 1 | 32 |
2025-01-03 | 2024-12-10 | [] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30640 | TikTok had a layoff event listed in January, April and May. ByteDance had an event in June. | This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to Tech Crunch's tracker "A comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs," which can be accessed [here](https://techcrunch.com/2024/11/13/tech-layoffs-2024-list/), TikTok or ByteDance have layoffs following the launch of this question and before January 1, 2025, To resolve the... | true | 2024-12-11 | Before January 1, 2025, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at TikTok or ByteDance? | metaculus | 0 | 32 |
2025-01-03 | 2024-12-10 | [] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30639 | Apple has had layoff events listed by Tech Crunch for February and April 2024. | This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to Tech Crunch's tracker "A comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs," which can be accessed [here](https://techcrunch.com/2024/11/13/tech-layoffs-2024-list/), Apple has layoffs following the launch of this question and before January 1, 2025, To resolve the question, a Me... | true | 2024-12-11 | Before January 1, 2025, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Apple? | metaculus | 0 | 32 |
2024-12-12 | 2024-12-10 | [] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30638 | According to Zillow, housing data is updated on the 12th of each month. | This question resolves as **Yes** if Zillow reports in its [Housing Data](https://www.zillow.com/research/data/) resource page that its Observed Rent Index for Dallas, TX has risen by ≥0.0% for November 2024. If this does not occur, then this resolves as **No**. The figure can be accessed either through observing the Z... | true | 2024-12-11 | Will the year-over-year increase in rent in Dallas, TX in November 2024 be greater than or equal to 0.0%, according to Zillow? | metaculus | 1 | 30 |
2024-12-12 | 2024-12-10 | [] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30637 | According to Zillow, housing data is updated on the 12th of each month. | This question resolves as **Yes** if Zillow reports in its [Housing Data](https://www.zillow.com/research/data/) resource page that its Zillow Home Value Index, Raw for Virginia Beach, VA has risen by ≥4.0% for November 2024. If this does not occur, then this resolves as **No**. The figure can be accessed either throu... | true | 2024-12-11 | Will the year-over-year increase in prices of homes in Virginia Beach, VA in November 2024 be greater than or equal to 4.0%, according to Zillow? | metaculus | 1 | 31 |
2025-01-03 | 2024-12-09 | [
"https://investorplace.com/2024/05/3-ev-stocks-nearing-bankruptcy-time-to-cut-your-losses/).)",
"https://www.forbes.com/sites/petercohan/2023/12/15/with-81-bankruptcy-chance-per-macroaxis-nikola-stock-is-not-cheap/).)",
"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/nikola-stock-2025-forecast:-will-nkla-go-bankrupt-or-become... | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30617 | Nikola Corp (formerly Nikola Motor Company) has been on many analysts' and investors' lists of being near bankruptcy for several months. ([Example 1](https://investorplace.com/2024/05/3-ev-stocks-nearing-bankruptcy-time-to-cut-your-losses/).) ([Example 2](https://www.forbes.com/sites/petercohan/2023/12/15/with-81-bankr... | This question will resolve as **Yes** if Nikola Corporation files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before January 1, 2025. The question will resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted ... | true | 2024-12-10 | Will Nikola Corporation file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2025? | metaculus | 0 | 30 |
2025-01-03 | 2024-12-09 | [
"https://www.infoq.com/articles/ai-cyber-attacks/),"
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30615 | The potential capabilities of artificial intelligence may radically shift our society. This could be in positive or negative ways – including extinction risk.
Because of this, it’s important to track the development of goal-oriented independent thought and action within AI systems. Actions that might not have been pre... | This question will resolve as **Yes** if before January 1st, 2025 a credible source reports an AI has gained unauthorized access to a computer system in a way that meets the following criteria:
• The AI was not trained to or directed to gain access to the system in question by any actor. See additional clarifications ... | true | 2024-12-10 | Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2025?
| metaculus | 0 | 29 |
2025-01-03 | 2024-12-09 | [] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30614 | In Q3 2024, Tesla delivered 462,890 vehicles. In Q2 2024, Tesla delivered 443,956 vehicles. Since the beginning of 2023, Tesla's deliveries were as follows: 422,875 in Q1 2023, 466,140 in Q2 2023, 435,059 in Q3 2023, 484,507 in Q4 2023, 386,810 in Q1 2024, and 443,956 in Q2 2024. | This question resolves as **Yes** if Tesla reports greater than 462,890 vehicles delivered for the fourth quarter of 2024. If it reports deliveries of 462,890 vehicles or fewer, this question resolves as **No**. Resolves based on reporting from Tesla's Investor Relations site. Generally Tesla reports deliveries two day... | true | 2024-12-10 | Will Tesla increase its deliveries in Q4 2024 compared with Q3 2024? | metaculus | 1 | 29 |
2025-01-03 | 2024-12-09 | [
"https://investors.gannett.com/news/news-details/2024/Gannett-Announces-Debt-Repayment--Refinancing-Update/default.aspx)"
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30613 | Gannett is the largest owner of newspaper in the US, as measured by daily and Sunday circulation. Like other newspapers, it has faced years of declining revenues and in September 2024 [announced](https://investors.gannett.com/news/news-details/2024/Gannett-Announces-Debt-Repayment--Refinancing-Update/default.aspx) asse... | This question will resolve as **Yes** if Gannett Co., Inc., files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before January 1, 2025. The question will resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted ... | true | 2024-12-10 | Will Gannett Co. file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2025? | metaculus | 0 | 30 |
2025-01-01 | 2024-12-12 | [
"https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2024-DON546):"
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30607 | According to [WHO](https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2024-DON546):
> Between 24 October and 5 December 2024, Panzi health zone in Kwango Province of Democratic Republic of the Congo recorded 406 cases of an undiagnosed disease with symptoms of fever, headache, cough, runny nose and body ache. ... | This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 7, 2025, the World Health Organization (WHO) reports that the disease outbreak previously reported as undiagnosed [here](https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2024-DON546) has been identified as having been predominantly caused by one or more... | true | 2024-12-31 | Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025? | metaculus | 0 | 53 |
2025-01-03 | 2024-12-06 | [
"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires",
"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires"
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30587 | It is rare for the richest person or the richest family to double the wealth of the next richest. Bill Gates achieved this [in 1999](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires#1999) when he reached $90 billion while Warren Buffett was at $36 billion, and was close [in 2001](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T... | This question will resolve as **Yes** if, for any single day after December 3, 2024 and before January 1, 2025, Elon Musk's net worth is equal to at least double the second richest person in the world, according to [Bloomberg's Billionaires Index](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). In case Bloomberg's index is n... | true | 2024-12-07 | Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person on any day before 2025? | metaculus | 0 | 29 |
2024-12-13 | 2024-12-06 | [
"https://www.politico.eu/article/france-prime-minister-michel-barnier-is-facing-the-chop-what-happens-next-crisis-emmanuel-macron/):",
"https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/france-turning-point-amid-budget-uncertainty-finance-minister-says-2024-12-03/):"
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30586 | [Politico](https://www.politico.eu/article/france-prime-minister-michel-barnier-is-facing-the-chop-what-happens-next-crisis-emmanuel-macron/):
> On Monday, Barnier, the EU’s former chief Brexit negotiator, used a controversial constitutional maneuver to bypass parliament and force through a social security financing b... | This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that a new French Prime Minister has been appointed. - A potential vote of no confidence on the new PM will not affect resolution.
- A caretaker PM will not resolve this question. | true | 2024-12-07 | Will France have a new Prime Minister before January 1, 2025? | metaculus | 1 | 29 |
2025-01-03 | 2024-12-06 | [
"https://www.politico.eu/article/france-prime-minister-michel-barnier-is-facing-the-chop-what-happens-next-crisis-emmanuel-macron/)"
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30585 | The CAC 40 is a benchmark French stock market index, representing a capitalisation-weighted measure of the 40 most significant stocks among the 100 largest market caps on the Euronext Paris. [Politico reports](https://www.politico.eu/article/france-prime-minister-michel-barnier-is-facing-the-chop-what-happens-next-cris... | This question will resolve as Yes if the close price of the CAC 40 for December 31, 2024 according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EFCHI/history/) is <7,400. - If Yahoo Finance is unavailable, alternative credible sources may be used.
- Euronext Paris [is expected](https://www.tradinghours.com/mar... | true | 2024-12-07 | Will the closing price of CAC 40 be less than 7,200 on December 31, 2024? | metaculus | 0 | 29 |
2025-01-03 | 2024-12-06 | [
"https://www.politico.eu/article/france-prime-minister-michel-barnier-is-facing-the-chop-what-happens-next-crisis-emmanuel-macron/)"
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30584 | The CAC 40 is a benchmark French stock market index, representing a capitalisation-weighted measure of the 40 most significant stocks among the 100 largest market caps on the Euronext Paris. [Politico reports](https://www.politico.eu/article/france-prime-minister-michel-barnier-is-facing-the-chop-what-happens-next-cris... | This question will resolve as Yes if the close price of the CAC 40 for December 31, 2024 according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EFCHI/history/) is less than or equal to 7,400 and greater than or equal to 7,200. - If Yahoo Finance is unavailable, alternative credible sources may be used.
- Euron... | true | 2024-12-07 | Will the closing price of CAC 40 be less than or equal to 7,400 and greater than or equal to 7,200 on December 31, 2024? | metaculus | 1 | 28 |
2025-01-03 | 2024-12-06 | [
"https://www.politico.eu/article/france-prime-minister-michel-barnier-is-facing-the-chop-what-happens-next-crisis-emmanuel-macron/)"
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30583 | The CAC 40 is a benchmark French stock market index, representing a capitalisation-weighted measure of the 40 most significant stocks among the 100 largest market caps on the Euronext Paris. [Politico reports](https://www.politico.eu/article/france-prime-minister-michel-barnier-is-facing-the-chop-what-happens-next-cris... | This question will resolve as Yes if the close price of the CAC 40 for December 31, 2024 according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EFCHI/history/) is >7,400. - If Yahoo Finance is unavailable, alternative credible sources may be used.
- Euronext Paris [is expected](https://www.tradinghours.com/mar... | true | 2024-12-07 | Will the closing price of CAC 40 be greater than 7,400 on December 31, 2024? | metaculus | 0 | 29 |
2025-01-03 | 2024-12-06 | [] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30582 | As of the close of trading on November 20, 2024, Tesla traded at $342.03
per share. At the time of this question, Tesla has experienced a post-election rally as its CEO, Elon Musk, is reported to be working in an advisory role for President-Elect Donald Trump. | This question resolves as **No** if according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history/) the listed "Close" price for Tesla, Inc., is greater than or equal to $420.00 for December 31, 2024. If it is under that price, this question resolves as **Yes**. No other resolution source will be considered... | true | 2024-12-07 | Will Tesla's stock price be under $420 a share on December 31, 2024? | metaculus | 1 | 29 |
2025-01-03 | 2024-12-06 | [] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30581 | As of the close of trading on November 20, 2024, Tesla traded at $342.03
per share. At the time of this question, Tesla has experienced a post-election rally as its CEO, Elon Musk, is reported to be working in an advisory role for President-Elect Donald Trump. | This question resolves as **Yes** if according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history/) the listed "Close" price for Tesla, Inc., is greater than or equal to $340.00 for December 31, 2024. No other resolution source will be considered. Forward or reverse stock splits will be immaterial for this... | true | 2024-12-07 | Will Tesla's stock price be at least $340 a share on December 31, 2024? | metaculus | 1 | 28 |
2025-01-03 | 2024-12-06 | [] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30580 | As of the close of trading on November 20, 2024, Tesla traded at $342.03
per share. At the time of this question, Tesla has experienced a post-election rally as its CEO, Elon Musk, is reported to be working in an advisory role for President-Elect Donald Trump. | This question resolves as **Yes** if according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history/) the listed "Close" price for Tesla, Inc., is greater than or equal to $300.00 for December 31, 2024. No other resolution source will be considered. Forward or reverse stock splits will be immaterial for this... | true | 2024-12-07 | Will Tesla's stock price be at least $300 a share on December 31, 2024? | metaculus | 1 | 29 |
2024-12-29 | 2024-12-06 | [
"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order):",
"https://baystatebanner.com/2024/10/02/biden-signs-executive-orders-on-gun-violence/)",
"https://natlawreview.com/article/president-biden-signs-executive-order-directing-agencies-prioritize-pro-union-and)."
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30579 | According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order):
>In the United States, an executive order is a directive by the president of the United States that manages operations of the federal government.The legal or constitutional basis for executive orders has multiple sources. Article Two of the Un... | This question resolves **Yes** if the number of executive orders signed by President Joe Biden after November 5, 2024, and before January 1, 2025, is 4 or more according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) such as the [Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-document... | true | 2024-12-07 | Will Joe Biden sign 4 or more executive orders after Election Day and before January 1, 2025? | metaculus | 1 | 29 |
2024-12-28 | 2024-12-06 | [
"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order):",
"https://baystatebanner.com/2024/10/02/biden-signs-executive-orders-on-gun-violence/)",
"https://natlawreview.com/article/president-biden-signs-executive-order-directing-agencies-prioritize-pro-union-and)."
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30578 | According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order):
>In the United States, an executive order is a directive by the president of the United States that manages operations of the federal government.The legal or constitutional basis for executive orders has multiple sources. Article Two of the Un... | This question resolves **Yes** if the number of executive orders signed by President Joe Biden after November 5, 2024, and before January 1, 2025, is 3 or more according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) such as the [Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-document... | true | 2024-12-07 | Will Joe Biden sign 3 or more executive orders after Election Day and before January 1, 2025? | metaculus | 1 | 29 |
2024-12-28 | 2024-12-06 | [
"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order):",
"https://baystatebanner.com/2024/10/02/biden-signs-executive-orders-on-gun-violence/)",
"https://natlawreview.com/article/president-biden-signs-executive-order-directing-agencies-prioritize-pro-union-and)."
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30577 | According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order):
>In the United States, an executive order is a directive by the president of the United States that manages operations of the federal government.The legal or constitutional basis for executive orders has multiple sources. Article Two of the Un... | This question resolves **Yes** if the number of executive orders signed by President Joe Biden after November 5, 2024, and before January 1, 2025, is 2 or more according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) such as the [Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-document... | true | 2024-12-07 | Will Joe Biden sign 2 or more executive orders after Election Day and before January 1, 2025? | metaculus | 1 | 29 |
2025-01-02 | 2024-12-06 | [
"https://www.airnow.gov/aqi/aqi-basics/):",
"https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/20/india/delhi-pollution-clinic-smog-climate-intl-hnk/index.html)",
"https://www.airnow.gov/international/us-embassies-and-consulates/"
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30576 | According to [Airnow](https://www.airnow.gov/aqi/aqi-basics/):
>The U.S. Air Quality Index (AQI) is EPA's tool for communicating about outdoor air quality and health. The AQI includes six color-coded categories, each corresponding to a range of index values. The higher the AQI value, the greater the level of air pollu... | This question will resolve as **Yes** if at least 1/3 of the hourly values reported by [AirNow](https://www.airnow.gov/international/us-embassies-and-consulates/#India$New_Delhi) for the dates December 16, 2024 to December 29, 2024 inclusive are categorized as having a "Hazardous" air quality index (AQI). If less than ... | true | 2024-12-07 | Will New Delhi experience a "Hazardous" air quality index for at least one third of the last two weeks of December 2024? | metaculus | 1 | 28 |
2025-01-23 | 2025-01-14 | [
"https://www.adorocinema.com/filmes/filme-265940/)",
"https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/entretenimento/ainda-estou-aqui-todos-os-premios-que-o-filme-ja-ganhou-ate-agora/)"
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30559 | Ainda Estou Aqui é uma adaptação cinematográfica do livro autobiográfico de Marcelo Rubens Paiva, que narra a emocionante trajetória de sua mãe, Eunice Paiva, durante a ditadura militar no Brasil.
Ambientada em 1970, a história retrata como a vida de uma mulher comum, casada com um importante político, muda drasticame... | Considera-se "SIM":
A publicação oficial da lista dos indicados ao prêmio Oscar [The Academy Awards](https://www.oscars.org/oscars), ou divulgado por qualquer mídia online, nacional ou internacional. | true | 2025-01-17 | "Eu Ainda Estou Aqui" será indicado ao Oscar 2025? | metaculus | 1 | 1 |
2025-01-23 | 2025-01-14 | [
"https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/entretenimento/fernanda-torres-ganha-premio-internacional-e-agradece-a-distancia-veja-discurso/)",
"https://www.band.uol.com.br/entretenimento/afinal-por-que-fernanda-montenegro-nao-ganhou-o-oscar-por-central-do-brasil-16639412)."
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30558 | Fernanda Torres (59) é uma atriz brasileira, filha de dois grandes nomes da dramaturgia brasileira, Fernanda Montenegro e Fernando Torres.
A sua atuação no filme "Eu Ainda Estou Aqui" (2024), do diretor Walter Salles, tem sido aclamado pelo público nacional e internacional, vencendo o prêmio Critics Choice Awards, na ... | Considera-se "SIM":
Oficial indicação pelo website oficial da [The Academy Awards](https://www.oscars.org/oscars), ou outra divulgação de mídia online brasileira ou internacional. | true | 2025-01-17 | Fernanda Torres será nomeada na categoria de Melhor Atriz do Oscar de 2025? | metaculus | 1 | 3 |
2025-01-03 | 2024-12-05 | [
"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1468/will-xi-jinping-keep-leading-china-past-2022/).",
"https://www.ft.com/content/71b165a6-052d-4d7d-9006-e2e757f40d98)."
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30537 | Xi Jinping is currently nearing the end of his second term as CCP General Secretary and is expected to make a bid for a third term and win it with a [92% chance according to a current Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1468/will-xi-jinping-keep-leading-china-past-2022/). There is considerable specu... | This question will resolve positive if either:
* Xi is CCP General Secretary on 1 January, 2025.
* Xi is paramount leader of China on 1 January, 2025.
* Xi is de facto leader of China on 1 January, 2025.
This question will resolve negative if:
* Any other person is leader on 1 January, 2025.
This questi... | true | 2024-12-06 | Will Xi Jinping continue leading China through January 1, 2025? | metaculus | 1 | 28 |
2025-01-01 | 2024-12-05 | [
"https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14154367/french-president-emmanuel-macron-not-resign.html)"
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30536 | [French President Emmanuel Macron says he will NOT resign as crisis engulfs his Government after extremist parties were accused of playing 'Russian roulette' with the country's future](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14154367/french-president-emmanuel-macron-not-resign.html) | This question resolves as **Yes** if Emmanuel Macron is President of France on December 31, 2024. | true | 2024-12-06 | Will Emmanuel Macron be President of France on December 31, 2024? | metaculus | 1 | 29 |
2025-01-01 | 2024-12-05 | [
"https://apnews.com/article/syria-hts-assad-aleppo-fighting-2be43ee530b7932b123a0f26b158ac22)"
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30535 | AP: [What to know about sudden rebel gains in Syria’s 13-year war and why it matters](https://apnews.com/article/syria-hts-assad-aleppo-fighting-2be43ee530b7932b123a0f26b158ac22) | This question resolves as **Yes** if Bashar al-Assad is President of Syria on December 31, 2024. | true | 2024-12-06 | Will Bashar al-Assad be President of Syria on December 31, 2024? | metaculus | 0 | 29 |
2024-12-29 | 2024-12-05 | [
"https://www.drought.gov/states/florida/county/miami-dade)."
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30534 | At the time of this question, Miami is Abnormally Dry according to Drought.gov at [this link](https://www.drought.gov/states/florida/county/miami-dade). | This question resolves as **Yes** if the Miami International Airport NWS weather station reports 5 or more days of rain in December 2024 according to [this](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=MIA&network=FL_ASOS&year=2024&month=12) resolution source. The resolution link is provided for convenien... | true | 2024-12-06 | Will Miami have at least 5 days of rain in December 2024? | metaculus | 1 | 29 |
2024-12-31 | 2024-12-05 | [
"https://www.universityworldnews.com/post.php?story=20241129133043835)"
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30533 | [Thousands of professors join call for president to resign](https://www.universityworldnews.com/post.php?story=20241129133043835) | This question resolves as **Yes** if Yoon Suk Yeol is President of the Republic of Korea (also known as South Korea) on December 31, 2024. Regardless of the circumstances, if Yoon Suk Yeol legally holds the office of President of the Republic of Korea on December 31, 2024, this question resolves as Yes | true | 2024-12-06 | Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024? | metaculus | 1 | 29 |
2024-12-11 | 2024-12-05 | [
"https://afripoli.org/ghanas-december-2024-elections-put-the-resilience-of-the-countrys-vaunted-democracy-to-the-test)",
"https://www.iri.org/resources/ghana-2024-elections-a-risk-assessment-of-the-online-information-space/)"
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30532 | [Ghana’s December 2024 elections put the resilience of the country’s vaunted democracy to the test](https://afripoli.org/ghanas-december-2024-elections-put-the-resilience-of-the-countrys-vaunted-democracy-to-the-test) | [Ghana 2024 Elections: A Risk Assessment of the Online Information Space](https://www.iri.org/resour... | This question resolves as **Yes** if the [Electoral Commission of Ghana](https://ec.gov.gh/election-results/) declares a winner of the 2024 presidential election of Ghana before January 1, 2025. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**. | true | 2024-12-06 | Will Ghana declare a winner in its presidential election before January 1, 2025? | metaculus | 1 | 29 |
2025-01-31 | 2024-12-04 | [
"https://theaidigest.org/2025-ai-forecasting-survey),",
"https://cdn.openai.com/openai-preparedness-framework-beta.pdf)"
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30516 | *This question is part of the [AI 2025 Forecasting Survey](https://theaidigest.org/2025-ai-forecasting-survey), see the survey questions for additional background information.*
---
OpenAI measures four categories of risk in their [preparedness scorecard](https://cdn.openai.com/openai-preparedness-framework-beta.pdf) ... | Resolves to yes if an AI system released by OpenAI has a pre-mitigation score of Medium or higher on Model Autonomy by December 31st 2025.
**Which AI systems count?**
Any AI system publically reported (not neccessarily releasd) by OpenAI.
[Eli Lifland](https://www.elilifland.com/) is responsible for final judgment on... | true | 2025-12-31 | Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of Medium or higher on Model Autonomy? | metaculus | 1 | 7 |
2025-01-03 | 2024-12-04 | [
"https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/cryptocurrency/dogecoin-outperforms-bitcoin-and-ether-rises-145-since-trumps-us-election-victory/articleshow/115209313.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst)"
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30505 | Dogecoin's intraday price reached $0.43457 on November 12, 2024. See also The Economic Times: [Dogecoin outperforms Bitcoin and Ether, rises 145% since Trump's US election victory](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/cryptocurrency/dogecoin-outperforms-bitcoin-and-ether-rises-145-since-trumps-us-election-victo... | This question resolves as **Yes** if the closing price of Dogecoin according to [this Coingecko link](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/dogecoin/historical_data) remains below $0.50 a share for the closing price for each day after the launch of this question and before January 1, 2025. Intraday prices do not count; th... | true | 2024-12-05 | Will Dogecoin close at below $0.50 a share every day before January 1, 2025? | metaculus | 1 | 32 |
2024-12-06 | 2024-12-04 | [] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30504 | From the resolution source: "Alpental (German for alpine valley) is one of four base areas at the Summit at Snoqualmie, separated from the other three by Interstate 90. Alpental offers the most advanced and expert terrain at the area with runs like Upper International and Shot Six. The area provides some of the steepes... | This question resolves as **Yes** if On the Snow's Alpental Snow Report, currently located [here](https://www.onthesnow.com/washington/alpental/skireport), reports the ski resort's operating status as Open when accessed by Metaculus on or after December 6, 2024. If it is reported as Closed, this question resolves as **... | true | 2024-12-05 | Will the Alpental ski resort be listed as Open by On the Snow's Ski Report on December 6, 2024? | metaculus | 0 | 32 |
2024-12-11 | 2024-12-04 | [
"https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/gas_proc-methods.php),"
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30503 | According to [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/gas_proc-methods.php), "Every Monday, EIA collects information on retail prices for regular, midgrade, and premium grades of gasoline from a sample of retail gasoline outlets across the United States using Form EIA-878, Motor Gasoline Price Survey Schedule A. T... | This question resolves as **Yes** if the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports Weekly U.S. Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Price of greater than or equal to $3.020 and less than or equal to $3.080 for the week of December 16, 2024. The resolution source can be accessed through [this link](https... | true | 2024-12-05 | Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline between $3.020 and $3.080 (inclusive) for the week of December 9, 2024? | metaculus | 0 | 32 |
2024-12-11 | 2024-12-04 | [
"https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/gas_proc-methods.php),"
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30502 | According to [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/gas_proc-methods.php), "Every Monday, EIA collects information on retail prices for regular, midgrade, and premium grades of gasoline from a sample of retail gasoline outlets across the United States using Form EIA-878, Motor Gasoline Price Survey Schedule A. T... | This question resolves as **Yes** if the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports Weekly U.S. Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Price of less than $3.020 for the week of December 9, 2024. The resolution source can be accessed through [this link](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=p... | true | 2024-12-05 | Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be less than $3.020 for the week of December 9, 2024? | metaculus | 1 | 32 |
2024-12-11 | 2024-12-04 | [
"https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/gas_proc-methods.php),"
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30501 | According to [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/gas_proc-methods.php), "Every Monday, EIA collects information on retail prices for regular, midgrade, and premium grades of gasoline from a sample of retail gasoline outlets across the United States using Form EIA-878, Motor Gasoline Price Survey Schedule A. T... | This question resolves as **Yes** if the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports Weekly U.S. Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Price of greater than $3.080 for the week of December 9, 2024. The resolution source can be accessed through [this link](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?... | true | 2024-12-05 | Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.080 for the week of December 9, 2024? | metaculus | 0 | 32 |
2024-12-13 | 2024-12-04 | [
"https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/global-temperature-anomalies),"
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30500 | According to [NOAA](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/global-temperature-anomalies), "The term temperature anomaly means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates t... | This question resolves as **Yes** if the Global Land and Ocean Average Temperature Anomaly for November 2024 is greater than or equal to 1.25 degrees and less than or equal to 1.31 degrees according to NOAA at [this page](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series). Region is "Gl... | true | 2024-12-05 | Will November 2024 have a global temperature increase of greater than or equal to 1.25 degrees and less than or equal to 1.31 degrees? | metaculus | 0 | 32 |
2024-12-13 | 2024-12-04 | [
"https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/global-temperature-anomalies),"
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30499 | According to [NOAA](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/global-temperature-anomalies), "The term temperature anomaly means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates t... | This question resolves as **Yes** if the Global Land and Ocean Average Temperature Anomaly for November 2024 is less than 1.25 degrees according to NOAA at [this page](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series). Region is "Global" and surface is "Land and Ocean." No other resolu... | true | 2024-12-05 | Will November 2024 have a global temperature increase of <1.25 degrees? | metaculus | 0 | 31 |
2024-12-13 | 2024-12-04 | [
"https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/global-temperature-anomalies),"
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30498 | According to [NOAA](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/global-temperature-anomalies), "The term temperature anomaly means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates t... | This question resolves as **Yes** if the Global Land and Ocean Average Temperature Anomaly for November 2024 is greater than 1.31 degrees according to NOAA at [this page](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series). Region is "Global" and surface is "Land and Ocean." No other res... | true | 2024-12-05 | Will November 2024 have a global temperature increase of >1.31 degrees? | metaculus | 1 | 31 |
2025-01-03 | 2024-12-04 | [
"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Killing_of_Jordan_Neely)",
"https://mediaroom.substack.com/p/update-people-v-daniel-penny-2f3)"
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30497 | Wikipedia: [Killing of Jordan Neely](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Killing_of_Jordan_Neely) | [Update: People v. Daniel Penny](https://mediaroom.substack.com/p/update-people-v-daniel-penny-2f3) | This question resolves as **Yes** if before January 1, 2025, Daniel Penny is found guilty or convicted of any charges stemming from the death of Jordan Neely, whether through a jury verdict or through a guilty plea (including through a plea bargain). Please note that Penny does not have to be found not guilty; a jury ... | true | 2024-12-05 | Will Daniel Penny be convicted in connection with the death of Jordan Neely before January 1, 2025? | metaculus | 0 | 32 |
2025-01-03 | 2024-12-04 | [
"https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/pakistan-protests-imran-khan-troops-killed-islamabad-violence-rcna181774)"
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30496 | NBC News: [Pakistani troops killed as protesters storm barricades demanding the release of jailed ex-PM Imran Khan](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/pakistan-protests-imran-khan-troops-killed-islamabad-violence-rcna181774) | This question resolves as **Yes** if Bushra Bibi, the wife of former Prime Minister Imran Khan, is arrested before January 1, 2025. In order to streamline this question's resolution, please note that an arrest anywhere in the world, for any reason, will resolve this question as Yes. For purposes of this question, we de... | true | 2024-12-05 | Will former First Lady of Pakistan Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025? | metaculus | 0 | 31 |
2024-12-31 | 2024-12-06 | [
"https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-korea-president-yoon-declares-martial-law-2024-12-03/):"
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30478 | [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-korea-president-yoon-declares-martial-law-2024-12-03/):
> In South Korea's biggest political crisis in decades, Yoon shocked the nation and declared martial law on Tuesday night to thwart "anti-state forces" among his domestic political opponents. But outraged ... | This question resolves as **Yes** if Yoon Suk Yeol is President of the Republic of Korea (also known as South Korea) on December 31, 2024. Regardless of the circumstances, if Yoon Suk Yeol holds the office of President of the Republic of Korea on December 31, 2024, this question resolves as **Yes**. | true | 2024-12-31 | Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024? | metaculus | 1 | 106 |
2024-12-13 | 2024-12-06 | [
"https://www.politico.eu/article/france-prime-minister-michel-barnier-is-facing-the-chop-what-happens-next-crisis-emmanuel-macron/):",
"https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/france-turning-point-amid-budget-uncertainty-finance-minister-says-2024-12-03/):"
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30474 | [Politico](https://www.politico.eu/article/france-prime-minister-michel-barnier-is-facing-the-chop-what-happens-next-crisis-emmanuel-macron/):
> On Monday, Barnier, the EU’s former chief Brexit negotiator, used a controversial constitutional maneuver to bypass parliament and force through a social security financing b... | This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that a new French Prime Minister has been appointed. - A potential vote of no confidence on the new PM will not affect resolution.
- A caretaker PM will not resolve this question. | true | 2024-12-31 | Will France have a new Prime Minister before January 1, 2025? | metaculus | 1 | 12 |
2025-02-13 | 2025-02-03 | [] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30470 | true | 2025-03-31 | Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services)) | metaculus | 0 | 2,054 | ||
2025-02-12 | 2025-02-03 | [] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30461 | true | 2025-03-31 | Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence)) | metaculus | 0 | 2,054 | ||
2025-01-01 | 2024-12-06 | [] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30457 | Bushra Bibi is the wife of former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan. Mr. Khan was ousted through a no-confidence vote in Parliament in April 2022 and sentenced to three years in a £190 million graft case. He was later found guilty of revealing official secrets and sentenced to a further 10 years in prison. In Novemb... | This question resolves as **Yes** if Bushra Bibi, the wife of former Prime Minister Imran Khan, is arrested before January 1, 2025, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). In order to streamline this question's resolution, please note that an arrest anywhere in the world, for any re... | true | 2024-12-31 | Will former First Lady of Pakistan Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025? | metaculus | 0 | 64 |
2024-12-13 | 2024-12-03 | [
"https://ballotpedia.org/Candy_Meehan_recall,_Norwood,_Colorado_(2024))"
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30447 | Ballotpedia: [Candy Meehan recall, Norwood, Colorado (2024)](https://ballotpedia.org/Candy_Meehan_recall,_Norwood,_Colorado_(2024)) | This question resolves as **Yes** if Mayor Candy Meehan wins the recall vote scheduled for December 10, 2024, in Norwood CO. The question resolves based on election results known before January 1, 2025. In the event of presumably rare edge cases such as the ballot being postponed or cancelled, the count taking too long... | true | 2024-12-04 | Will Candy Meehan survive the recall vote in Norwood, Colorado, scheduled for December 10, 2024? | metaculus | 1 | 31 |
2025-01-01 | 2024-12-03 | [
"https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/openai-remove-non-profit-control-give-sam-altman-equity-sources-say-2024-09-25/)"
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30446 | [Exclusive: OpenAI to remove non-profit control and give Sam Altman equity](https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/openai-remove-non-profit-control-give-sam-altman-equity-sources-say-2024-09-25/) | This question resolves as **Yes** if OpenAI is listed as "Exempt" by Delaware's Division of Corporations on December 31, 2024. To access the status page, go [here](https://icis.corp.delaware.gov/ecorp/entitysearch/NameSearch.aspx) and do a search for file number 5902936. If it shows "Entity Type: Exempt" then this ques... | true | 2024-12-04 | Will the state of Delaware's Division of Corporations list OpenAI as an "Exempt" entity on December 31, 2024? | metaculus | 1 | 31 |
2025-01-03 | 2024-12-03 | [
"https://arctic-council.org/explore/topics/climate/),"
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30445 | According to the [Arctic Council](https://arctic-council.org/explore/topics/climate/), "The temperatures in the Arctic continue to rise at three times the global annual average, driving many of the changes underway in the Arctic. Most prominently, snow and ice are melting at an increasing rate. This impacts both local ... | This question resolves as **Yes** if the average daily temperature for December 2024 recorded by the Barrow/Port Rogers National Weather Service weather station in Alaska exceeds the 1945-2023 average for December by ≥6 degrees Fahrenheit. Specifically, it will be the figure for December 2024 under "Average Daily Tempe... | true | 2024-12-04 | Will the average daily temperature for December 2024 recorded by the Barrow/Port Rogers NWS weather station (on the Arctic coast of Alaska) exceed the 1945-2023 average for December by ≥6 degrees F? | metaculus | 0 | 30 |
2025-01-01 | 2024-12-03 | [
"https://arctic-council.org/explore/topics/climate/),"
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30444 | According to the [Arctic Council](https://arctic-council.org/explore/topics/climate/), "The temperatures in the Arctic continue to rise at three times the global annual average, driving many of the changes underway in the Arctic. Most prominently, snow and ice are melting at an increasing rate. This impacts both local ... | This question resolves as **Yes** if the average daily temperature for December 2024 recorded by the Barrow/Port Rogers National Weather Service weather station in Alaska exceeds the 1945-2023 average for December by ≥4 degrees Fahrenheit. Specifically, it will be the figure for December 2024 under "Average Daily Tempe... | true | 2024-12-04 | Will the average daily temperature for December 2024 recorded by the Barrow/Port Rogers NWS weather station (on the Arctic coast of Alaska) exceed the 1945-2023 average for December by ≥4 degrees F? | metaculus | 1 | 29 |
2025-01-03 | 2024-12-03 | [
"https://arctic-council.org/explore/topics/climate/),"
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30443 | According to the [Arctic Council](https://arctic-council.org/explore/topics/climate/), "The temperatures in the Arctic continue to rise at three times the global annual average, driving many of the changes underway in the Arctic. Most prominently, snow and ice are melting at an increasing rate. This impacts both local ... | This question resolves as **Yes** if the average daily temperature for December 2024 recorded by the Barrow/Port Rogers National Weather Service weather station in Alaska exceeds the 1945-2023 average for December. Specifically, it will be the figure for December 2024 under "Average Daily Temperature (high+low)/2 [F]" ... | true | 2024-12-04 | Will the average daily temperature for December 2024 recorded by the Barrow/Port Rogers NWS weather station (on the Arctic coast of Alaska) exceed the 1945-2023 average for December? | metaculus | 1 | 30 |
2024-12-30 | 2024-12-03 | [
"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/)"
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30442 | [FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/) aggregates polling data from various pollsters to calculate a weighted favorability rating. After winning the US election, Trump's net favorability (% of people that have a favorable opinion - % that have an unfavorable one) has in... | This question will resolve as **Yes** if the net favorability rating of Donald Trump for December 27, 2024, is less than -6, as reported by 538 after that date. The resolution will be based on the already-calculated net rating presented on 538. A higher percentage for "Unfavorable" will result in a negative resolution.... | true | 2024-12-04 | Will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024 be less than -6? | metaculus | 0 | 30 |
2024-12-30 | 2024-12-03 | [
"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/)"
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30441 | [FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/) aggregates polling data from various pollsters to calculate a weighted favorability rating. After winning the US election, Trump's net favorability (% of people that have a favorable opinion - % that have an unfavorable one) has in... | This question will resolve as **Yes** if the net favorability rating of Donald Trump for December 27, 2024, is greater than or equal to -6 and less than or equal to -4, as reported by 538 after that date. The resolution will be based on the already-calculated net rating presented on 538. A higher percentage for "Unfavo... | true | 2024-12-04 | Will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024 be greater than or equal to -6 and less than or equal to -4? | metaculus | 0 | 30 |
2024-12-30 | 2024-12-03 | [
"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/)"
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30440 | [FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/) aggregates polling data from various pollsters to calculate a weighted favorability rating. After winning the US election, Trump's net favorability (% of people that have a favorable opinion - % that have an unfavorable one) has in... | This question will resolve as **Yes** if the net favorability rating of Donald Trump for December 27, 2024, is greater than -4, as reported by 538 after that date. The resolution will be based on the already-calculated net rating presented on 538. A higher percentage for "Unfavorable" will result in a negative resoluti... | true | 2024-12-04 | Will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024 be greater than -4? | metaculus | 1 | 29 |
2025-01-08 | 2024-12-03 | [
"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whooping_cough):",
"https://www.health.govt.nz/news/whooping-cough-epidemic-declared-across-aotearoa-new-zealand)"
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30439 | Whooping cough is a serious disease. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whooping_cough):
> Whooping cough also known as pertussis or the 100-day cough, is a highly contagious, vaccine-preventable bacterial disease. Initial symptoms are usually similar to those of the common cold with a runny nose, ... | This question will resolve as **Yes** if the total number of cases reported by the Institute of Environmental Science and Research's Pertussis Dashboard for both weeks 51 and 52, when they are posted is under 275. - Week 51 ends on December 20, 2024, and the data are expected to be posted on December 25, 2024. Week 52 ... | true | 2024-12-04 | Will New Zealand report <275 whooping cough cases for weeks 51 and 52? | metaculus | 1 | 30 |
2025-01-08 | 2024-12-03 | [
"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whooping_cough):",
"https://www.health.govt.nz/news/whooping-cough-epidemic-declared-across-aotearoa-new-zealand)"
] | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30438 | Whooping cough is a serious disease. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whooping_cough):
> Whooping cough also known as pertussis or the 100-day cough, is a highly contagious, vaccine-preventable bacterial disease. Initial symptoms are usually similar to those of the common cold with a runny nose, ... | This question will resolve as **Yes** if the total number of cases reported by the Institute of Environmental Science and Research's Pertussis Dashboard for both weeks 51 and 52, when they are posted is greater than or equal to 275 and less than or equal to 375 . - Week 51 ends on December 20, 2024, and the data are ex... | true | 2024-12-04 | Will New Zealand report greater than or equal to 275 and less than or equal to 375 whooping cough cases for weeks 51 and 52? | metaculus | 0 | 29 |
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