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there're so brutally demolished that i am creating the loser who got knocked the fuck out category because holy fucking shit.
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he's out of touch. he's too conservative for the modern democratic party.
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and he just couldn't defend himself no matter what he did.
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i mean, that first hour was probably going to be remembered for him, as the most embarrassing moment of his life, because you spend all this money to get on this...
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you basically have the dnc change the rules to accommodate you and you get knocked the fuck out on debate one? oh, that's so embarrassing. that is so-
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so embarrassing, like if i'm mike bloomberg, i...
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bloomberg obliterated. absolutely curbed-
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...and it's so bad that i don't even think that the media can spin this, like...
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it's really embarrassing. your response to sexual harassment...
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... absolutely unreal. so mike bloomberg performed so poorly that i had to create a special category for him.
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saw jeff from jurassic park, that made me laugh about mike bloomberg entering the debate.
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it was bad and i think that it's universally seen that mike bloomberg was the biggest loser.
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but just literally tried to say that bernie supporters are uniquely evil.
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came out tonight against democracy.
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all fucking hell will break loose.
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democracy will be dead and a democratic party will go the way of the dodo.
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yeah, i'd be open to stealing it. disgusting, even from elizabeth warren. if they think they can do that and go on to win-
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but democrats, they're playing with fire. i can't stress that enough.
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and look, this debate was great if you're a bernie sanders supporter.
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mike bloomberg just had a horrible...
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horrible night. i said on twitter that i know he's not accepting donations.
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awesome, thank you so much, james. i just wanted to start off by saying thanks for having us on, and also thanks to graham for just being here and be one...
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james and i go way back and he actually introduced me to the chipotle venn diagram hack.
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i just wanted to let everyone know publicly how awesome james' life hacks are.
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all right. let's jump into pascal's wager.
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so what i want to do basically is talk a little bit about oppi's-
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not going to go through and explain the basics of decision theory. if you don't have that background and you want that background-
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the first is that sometimes i don't like the word "debate" because i really want all of our goal today to be getting at the truth, and sometimes making it into...
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so, i want us to just focus on, what's the truth, how...
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... wager is an argument that it is rational to believe in god or-
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so it's not an argument that establishes that god exists.
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and if you don't wager on god and god doesn't exist-
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but my version of the wager is ultimately more complex than this.
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and that's one of the six things i wanted to address that i don't know if i'll get to.
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so also another case where credence is vague over an interval that includes zero-
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another thing i thought was super interesting in the chapter-
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the relationship between the odds that are delivered by decision theory and then the all things considered odds.
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a pretty flexible theory and it doesn't take a stand on what you build into the utility function. it doesn't take a stand on what's valuable, and so-
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but i do see the worry. is this consequentialist framework?
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again, i'll reiterate, i'm not arguing that everyone needs to wager on christianity.
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what grounds are there for insisting that i should be prepared to betray all my friends and family?
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that does have unexpected value.
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and then if not, what are the plausible principles that we can get to capture the way we weigh these expected values against each other?
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and say this, "look, we're actually really bad at reasoning about infinities."
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we're just really bad at reasoning about these large numbers.
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and say, "look, we're just really bad about reasoning about infinite expected values. it might seem like we really shouldn't."
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the second worry that afi raises us for this idea that we should go for the higher probability of an infinite...
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so i think this depends on the kind of wager you're going in for, but-
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immerse yourself in a religious community with the initial goal of coming to believe in god.
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my thought was, if they're more of a model to basically model the value of heaven, the...
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fourth thing, you seem to rely quite a bit on a historical point.
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this is not clear to me that even as a historical matter, pascal thinks we're totally in the dark or we have no evidence that bears on theism.
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second point is that i'm at least personally a lot less interested in the historical question than i am just the question of whether we can create a good argument that-
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we should wager on god, whether or not that's what pascal actually made or not.
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really care, i'm just interested in this idea that we can be rational to believe in god or commit to god.
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there's this tension between two of the credences and preferences that we input into decision theory. half of them will seldom be rational or...
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has to do with this idea that we either couldn't or shouldn't adjust our-
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both of these objections kind of don't work...
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it was quite common up until about 20 years ago for people to write-
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can't right now perform the action of believing something where-
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when you were describing the setup, you didn't talk about belief. you talked-
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... the outcomes. now there have to be more columns in the table because there's these two possibilities that i don't wager what i-
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... doing the calculation of expected value that against both wagering and not wagering.
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yeah, no, that's great. i...
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i agree that there's at least a big question about whether we can just believe it. well-
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permissivism. but you might think of a case where you're really torn between...
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arguably when you're torn between going to law school and going to medical school, you...
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i think though that might not hit at the deepest point of what you said, though.
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because i really think there's this big question, which...
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i think at least in the christian theological t...
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there might be some works or actions that at least are the result of a genuine christian commitment.
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here's, maybe the big, i think a big choice point, and...
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but i think that making a genuine commitment to god, really seeking god-
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then i think this could even be a matter of belief.
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so, you might just say, "that's not clear to me and there's... it's not clear to me that that would raise that probability more than just..."
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it's incorporating the many gods worry into pascal's wager rather than saying it doesn't matter.
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... then i'll turn it over to you, is there's this possibility and then you-
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or atheists or whatever. and so i wonder what population size is going to be left? now you might-
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yeah, i could just punt and say, "i don't know." but i do think it's interesting and relevant, just because-
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... there could be people that do believe atheism is true-
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you could have one day every 10 years for each of rather a large number of-
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right, but i do think-
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if there's certain religions that are consistent-
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i don't want to rule that out either.
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so i mentioned i have that paper on taking pascal's wager in-
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so mike rhoda has a version where that threshold is as high as 0.5.
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so, yeah, there's kind of a choice point here.
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two, i'm not sure.
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but, i think if we assume that or argue for that, i guess-
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can't just believe it because you gave me some reward or benefit, right?
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i think it really makes space for really strong and direct responses to both this impossibility objection and this irrationality objection.
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interestingly, not the orthodox position in historical stuff, but...
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you know, you see that p is true, to believe p is to believe that p is true.
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Development
writing a paper. sometimes these things even happen over a period of time.
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H
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Development
maybe i'll just say the other thing because it's super quick. you're in a permissive case, and theism is among the permitted attitudes-
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H
5.4
4.6
4.4
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Male
Development
definition, is one of the attitudes that's permitted for you.
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A
5.6
2.4
5.6
2,051
Male
Development
that's one thing. but if two attitudes are really epistemically tied for me, then-
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X
4.8
3.8
4.4
2,051
Male
Development
they're not passive features of our psychology that we have no control over.
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N
4.4
3.6
4.4
2,051
Male
Development
you could have the end points in mind.
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H
5.2
4.4
5.2
2,051
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Development
i totally think, just think about a freshman who goes into a philosophy class and reads descartes or hume. arguably what's happening is that they're...
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