Add world state snapshot for 2026-05-16

2026-05-16.json

@@ -0,0 +1,123 @@
+{
+  "date": "2026-05-16",
+  "timestamp": "2026-05-16T23:50:24.414Z",
+  "index": {
+    "disagreement": 51,
+    "geoRisk": 16,
+    "breadth": 0.36,
+    "activity": 14
+  },
+  "traditional": [
+    {
+      "symbol": "SPY",
+      "price": 748.04,
+      "changePct": 0.71
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "QQQ",
+      "price": 719.31,
+      "changePct": 0.47
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IWM",
+      "price": 284.24,
+      "changePct": 0.52
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "VIXY",
+      "price": 26.7,
+      "changePct": -2.27
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "SHY",
+      "price": 82.15,
+      "changePct": -0.05
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IEF",
+      "price": 94.26,
+      "changePct": -0.07
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "TLT",
+      "price": 84.94,
+      "changePct": 0.18
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "HYG",
+      "price": 79.86,
+      "changePct": -0.05
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "GLD",
+      "price": 427.01,
+      "changePct": -0.89
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "USO",
+      "price": 142.12,
+      "changePct": 0.49
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "UNG",
+      "price": 11.19,
+      "changePct": 1.54
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "CPER",
+      "price": 40.02,
+      "changePct": -0.62
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "UUP",
+      "price": 27.61,
+      "changePct": 0.38
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "FXE",
+      "price": 107.66,
+      "changePct": -0.35
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "XLE",
+      "price": 58.09,
+      "changePct": 0.79
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "EEM",
+      "price": 67.43,
+      "changePct": 0.43
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IBIT",
+      "price": 46.13,
+      "changePct": 2.26
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "ETHE",
+      "price": 18.63,
+      "changePct": 1.69
+    }
+  ],
+  "topics": [],
+  "topEdges": [],
+  "divergences": [
+    {
+      "description": "VA-10 House Election Winner overshooting Vermont Governor Democratic Primary W… — 34¢ gap [US Elections]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "What floor price will CryptoPunks hit? lagging Dogecoin price? — 23¢ gap [Crypto]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "any member of the Cabinet (defined as overshooting tariff rate on China imports be above… — 14¢ gap [Tariffs & trade]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    }
+  ],
+  "markdown": "# World (2026-05-16 23:45 UTC)\nRegime: Broad up-skew — markets resolving toward higher probability\nSimpleFunctions Index: Disagree 51 | GeoRisk 16 | Breadth +0.36 | Activity 14\nBaseline: last 12h\n\n## [divergence] VA-10 House Election Winner overshooting Vermont Governor Democratic Primary W… — 34¢ gap [US Elections]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Vermont Governor Democratic Primary Winner: Aly Richards\",\"Δ\":\"-23c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"VA-10 House Election Winner: Republican Party\",\"Δ\":\"31c\"}\n- gap: -34\n- theme: US Elections\n- triggerTicker: 0xf77bd5682beec44a135a9ab814a28e4b69481e84365243bc6a86f1cea39dfd76\n- laggingTicker: 0x65e3190ac200805717f3cb01baeef9846889fc4e59f929a103568c8ebdbe4fde\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-9p59uu`\n  → Vermont Governor Democratic Primary Winner: Aly Richards spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [residual] 5.2σ volume @ 35¢ — rate of CPI inflation be above 4.6% for the year …\n- ticker: KXCPIYOY-26JUL-T4.6\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.6% for the year ending in July 2026?: Above 4.6%\n- price: 35\n- residualVr: 5.192\n- vr: 5.4\n- volume24h: 750.67\n  → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-2x0f1o`\n  → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXCPIYOY-26JUL-T4.6`\n  → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXCPIYOY-26JUL-T4.6`\n\n## [divergence] What floor price will CryptoPunks hit? lagging Dogecoin price? — 23¢ gap [Crypto]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Dogecoin price  on May 22, 2026?: $0.11 or above\",\"Δ\":\"40c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"What floor price will CryptoPunks hit before 2027?: ↓ 20 ETH\",\"Δ\":\"51c\"}\n- gap: 23\n- theme: Crypto\n- triggerTicker: KXDOGED-26MAY2217-T0.1099999\n- laggingTicker: 0x5d3e8d056c9110df9c9713cdf1c9c5753c95a3302398f9ab7cc6d99129940401\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-yaga5v`\n  → Dogecoin price  on May 22, 2026?: $0.11 or above spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [residual] 3.6σ volume @ 44¢ — rate of CPI inflation be above 4.5% for the year …\n- ticker: KXCPIYOY-26JUL-T4.5\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.5% for the year ending in July 2026?: Above 4.5%\n- price: 44\n- residualVr: 3.612\n- vr: 3.82\n- volume24h: 709.99\n  → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-2x0f1n`\n  → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXCPIYOY-26JUL-T4.5`\n  → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXCPIYOY-26JUL-T4.5`\n\n## [consensus_break] at least 3 judges be confirmed in May?: 5 markets deeply split (σ=45¢, range 93¢)\n- seriesKey: KXJUDGECOUNT\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXJUDGECOUNT-26MAY-0\",\"title\":\"Will at least 1 judges be confirmed in May 2026?: At least 1\",\"price\":96},{\"ticker\":\"KXJUDGECOUNT-26MAY-1\",\"title\":\"Will at least 2 ju...\n- dispersion: 45\n- range: 93\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-4ed4u4`\n\n## [consensus_break] Erling Haaland win the Golden Ball?: 3 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 94¢)\n- seriesKey: KXWCAWARD\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXWCAWARD-26GGLOVE-EMART\",\"title\":\"Will Emiliano Martinez win the Golden Glove?: Emiliano Martinez\",\"price\":3},{\"ticker\":\"KXWCAWARD-26GBALL-EHAAL\",\"title\":\"Will Erli...\n- dispersion: 44\n- range: 94\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-agtpfx`\n\n## [residual] 3.3σ volume @ 68¢ — rate of CPI inflation be above 4.2% for the year …\n- ticker: KXCPIYOY-26JUL-T4.2\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.2% for the year ending in July 2026?: Above 4.2%\n- price: 68\n- residualVr: 3.275\n- vr: 3.483\n- volume24h: 558\n  → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-2x0f1k`\n  → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXCPIYOY-26JUL-T4.2`\n  → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXCPIYOY-26JUL-T4.2`\n\n## [consensus_break] PA-07 Democratic Primary Winner: 3 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 92¢)\n- seriesKey: 287013\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"0xd78be31bfd65881be515826515444e27d96a05c6b10b66fab1ad58876dd04fef\",\"title\":\"PA-07 Democratic Primary Winner: Lamont McClure\",\"price\":3},{\"ticker\":\"0x2bfd24a798b164c...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 92\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-xu2w6w`\n\n## [divergence] any member of the Cabinet (defined as overshooting tariff rate on China imports be above… — 14¢ gap [Tariffs & trade]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Will the tariff rate on China imports be above 60% on Jul 1, 2026?: Above 60%\",\"Δ\":\"-46c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Will any member of the Cabinet (defined as: the Vice President, Secretary of Sta\",\"Δ\":\"6c\"}\n- gap: -14\n- theme: Tariffs & trade\n- triggerTicker: KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01-30\n- laggingTicker: KXIMPEACHCABINET-27JAN01\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-jvdymv`\n  → Will the tariff rate on China imports be above 60% on Jul 1, 2026?: Above 60% spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% no in 14h — Trump endorse at least 15 people on Truth So…\n- ticker: KXTRUMPENDORSEMENTS-26MAY16-A15\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will Trump endorse at least 15 people on Truth Social this week?: At least 15\n- price: 5\n- settlesInHours: 14\n- impliedProbability: 0.05\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXTRUMPENDORSEMENTS-26MAY16-A15`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXTRUMPENDORSEMENTS-26MAY16-A15`\n\n## Zoom\n- **Iran** — 206 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/iran`\n- **Oil & Energy** — 437 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/oil`\n- **Fed & Rates** — 1117 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/fed-rate`\n- **Recession** — 638 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/recession`\n- **2026 Elections** — 2965 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/election-2026`\n- **Crypto** — 1067 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/bitcoin`\n- **Ukraine/Russia** — 279 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/ukraine`\n- **China/Taiwan** — 333 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/china`\n\n---\nPath: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world\nOp: snapshot · Generated in 4343ms",
+  "markdownTokenEstimate": 1827
+}