Add world state snapshot for 2026-05-15

2026-05-15.json

@@ -0,0 +1,123 @@
+{
+  "date": "2026-05-15",
+  "timestamp": "2026-05-15T23:50:33.465Z",
+  "index": {
+    "disagreement": 40,
+    "geoRisk": 14,
+    "breadth": 0.38,
+    "activity": 0
+  },
+  "traditional": [
+    {
+      "symbol": "SPY",
+      "price": 742.77,
+      "changePct": 0.72
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "QQQ",
+      "price": 715.94,
+      "changePct": 1.39
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IWM",
+      "price": 282.78,
+      "changePct": 0.16
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "VIXY",
+      "price": 27.32,
+      "changePct": 1.71
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "SHY",
+      "price": 82.2,
+      "changePct": 0.03
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IEF",
+      "price": 94.33,
+      "changePct": 0.01
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "TLT",
+      "price": 84.78,
+      "changePct": -0.25
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "HYG",
+      "price": 79.9,
+      "changePct": 0.1
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "GLD",
+      "price": 430.85,
+      "changePct": -0.35
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "USO",
+      "price": 141.42,
+      "changePct": -2.03
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "UNG",
+      "price": 11.02,
+      "changePct": 1.1
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "CPER",
+      "price": 40.27,
+      "changePct": -0.37
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "UUP",
+      "price": 27.51,
+      "changePct": 0.22
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "FXE",
+      "price": 108.04,
+      "changePct": -0.27
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "XLE",
+      "price": 57.63,
+      "changePct": 0.1
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "EEM",
+      "price": 67.14,
+      "changePct": 1.96
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IBIT",
+      "price": 45.11,
+      "changePct": -1.33
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "ETHE",
+      "price": 18.32,
+      "changePct": -0.92
+    }
+  ],
+  "topics": [],
+  "topEdges": [],
+  "divergences": [
+    {
+      "description": "SpaceX IPO by ___? overshooting What will SpaceX's public ticker be? — 59¢ gap [Tech / IPO]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "MI-11 Democratic Primary Winner overshooting MI-03 House Election Winner — 42¢ gap [US Elections]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "rate of core CPI inflation be above 2… overshooting Jerome Powell departs as Fed Chair by… — 33¢ gap [Fed / monetary policy]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    }
+  ],
+  "markdown": "# World (2026-05-15 23:40 UTC)\nRegime: Broad up-skew — markets resolving toward higher probability\nSimpleFunctions Index: Disagree 40 | GeoRisk 14 | Breadth +0.38 | Activity 0\nBaseline: last 12h\n\n## [divergence] SpaceX IPO by ___? overshooting What will SpaceX's public ticker be? — 59¢ gap [Tech / IPO]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"What will SpaceX's public ticker be?: Other (incl $SPCX)\",\"Δ\":\"29c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"SpaceX IPO by ___ ?: June 15\",\"Δ\":\"73c\"}\n- gap: -59\n- theme: Tech / IPO\n- triggerTicker: 0x913d94d8140c5f34a36298c2d2855c157f03b47884f780fe4a6f40c42fecd760\n- laggingTicker: 0x13ca9f55fed9ce4094d90fe1ab5f63c0d371d1589dfffe247a3c1c13d6fb0477\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-qd4ikp`\n  → What will SpaceX's public ticker be?: Other (incl $SPCX) spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [divergence] MI-11 Democratic Primary Winner overshooting MI-03 House Election Winner — 42¢ gap [US Elections]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"MI-03 House Election Winner: Democratic Party\",\"Δ\":\"-27c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"MI-11 Democratic Primary Winner: Dave Woodward\",\"Δ\":\"38c\"}\n- gap: -42\n- theme: US Elections\n- triggerTicker: 0xf95a13ab7db445e3aa5e668fce91115b480cd7b628620e7b5a4bb39d8ad27c55\n- laggingTicker: 0x166182ee3d95886dcd15b3b266aea9b7df93726cbe39887dd8f3c584e3a5b0e1\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-ddb7fp`\n  → MI-03 House Election Winner: Democratic Party spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [divergence] rate of core CPI inflation be above 2… overshooting Jerome Powell departs as Fed Chair by… — 33¢ gap [Fed / monetary policy]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Jerome Powell departs as Fed Chair by...?: May 16\",\"Δ\":\"-83c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.8% for the year ending in July 20\",\"Δ\":\"86c\"}\n- gap: -33\n- theme: Fed / monetary policy\n- triggerTicker: 0xc3ab3da4947427093f55255e93f5c2ee4ad49a50d75bc40f3a516c0c34237f01\n- laggingTicker: KXCPICOREYOY-26JUL-T2.8\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-lfg62a`\n  → Jerome Powell departs as Fed Chair by...?: May 16 spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [residual] 3.5σ volume @ 83¢ — rate of CPI inflation be above 4.0% for the year …\n- ticker: KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T4.0\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.0% for the year ending in June 2026?: Above 4.0%\n- price: 83\n- residualVr: 3.508\n- vr: 3.688\n- volume24h: 550\n  → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-3v3ntw`\n  → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T4.0`\n  → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T4.0`\n\n## [consensus_break] at least 3 judges be confirmed in May?: 5 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 93¢)\n- seriesKey: KXJUDGECOUNT\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXJUDGECOUNT-26MAY-0\",\"title\":\"Will at least 1 judges be confirmed in May 2026?: At least 1\",\"price\":96},{\"ticker\":\"KXJUDGECOUNT-26MAY-1\",\"title\":\"Will at least 2 ju...\n- dispersion: 44\n- range: 93\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-4ed4u4`\n\n## [consensus_break] Erling Haaland win the Golden Ball?: 3 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 94¢)\n- seriesKey: KXWCAWARD\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXWCAWARD-26GGLOVE-EMART\",\"title\":\"Will Emiliano Martinez win the Golden Glove?: Emiliano Martinez\",\"price\":3},{\"ticker\":\"KXWCAWARD-26GBALL-EHAAL\",\"title\":\"Will Erli...\n- dispersion: 44\n- range: 94\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-agtpfx`\n\n## [consensus_break] 2nd largest company end of May?: 3 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 92¢)\n- seriesKey: 385556\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"0x32039e312d108f4bc3f15bedf5e73edb9a728c9fd338497d0ca2d81c97afbbc4\",\"title\":\"2nd largest company end of May?: NVIDIA\",\"price\":3},{\"ticker\":\"0xefa10d84a527e0f0dd67010...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 92\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-yb3cf1`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 91% no in 4h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASD-26MAY16-4.535\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $4.535?: Above 4.535\n- price: 9\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.09\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASD-26MAY16-4.535`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASD-26MAY16-4.535`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 90% yes in 4h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASD-26MAY16-4.510\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $4.510?: Above 4.510\n- price: 90\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.9\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASD-26MAY16-4.510`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASD-26MAY16-4.510`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 88% yes in 4h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASD-26MAY16-4.515\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $4.515?: Above 4.515\n- price: 88\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.88\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASD-26MAY16-4.515`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASD-26MAY16-4.515`\n\n## Zoom\n- **Iran** — 209 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/iran`\n- **Oil & Energy** — 438 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/oil`\n- **Fed & Rates** — 1135 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/fed-rate`\n- **Recession** — 637 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/recession`\n- **2026 Elections** — 2897 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/election-2026`\n- **Crypto** — 1023 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/bitcoin`\n- **Ukraine/Russia** — 282 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/ukraine`\n- **China/Taiwan** — 315 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/china`\n\n---\nPath: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world\nOp: snapshot · Generated in 4178ms",
+  "markdownTokenEstimate": 1823
+}