Add world state snapshot for 2026-04-26

2026-04-26.json

@@ -0,0 +1,123 @@
+{
+  "date": "2026-04-26",
+  "timestamp": "2026-04-26T23:50:03.308Z",
+  "index": {
+    "disagreement": 44,
+    "geoRisk": 29,
+    "breadth": 0.25,
+    "activity": 100
+  },
+  "traditional": [
+    {
+      "symbol": "SPY",
+      "price": 713.2,
+      "changePct": 0.56
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "QQQ",
+      "price": 663.38,
+      "changePct": 1.43
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IWM",
+      "price": 276.76,
+      "changePct": 0.58
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "VIXY",
+      "price": 28.79,
+      "changePct": 1.05
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "SHY",
+      "price": 82.58,
+      "changePct": 0.12
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IEF",
+      "price": 95.56,
+      "changePct": 0.17
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "TLT",
+      "price": 86.7,
+      "changePct": 0.16
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "HYG",
+      "price": 80.5,
+      "changePct": 0.16
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "GLD",
+      "price": 432.14,
+      "changePct": 0.37
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "USO",
+      "price": 132.32,
+      "changePct": -2.24
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "UNG",
+      "price": 10.31,
+      "changePct": -1.86
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "CPER",
+      "price": 36.97,
+      "changePct": -0.07
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "UUP",
+      "price": 27.46,
+      "changePct": -0.25
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "FXE",
+      "price": 108.15,
+      "changePct": 0.21
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "XLE",
+      "price": 56.81,
+      "changePct": -0.27
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "EEM",
+      "price": 63.72,
+      "changePct": 2.36
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IBIT",
+      "price": 44.05,
+      "changePct": -0.25
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "ETHE",
+      "price": 18.85,
+      "changePct": 0.37
+    }
+  ],
+  "topics": [],
+  "topEdges": [],
+  "divergences": [
+    {
+      "description": "Bank of England Maintain current rate… lagging Lisa Murkowski vote for the next Fed … — 32¢ gap [Fed / monetary policy]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "Russia enter Ternuvate again by...? lagging Russia capture Toretske by...? — 26¢ gap [Ukraine / Russia conflict]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "there be more than 40 transit calls t… overshooting How many ships will Iran successfully… — 17¢ gap [Iran / Hormuz crisis]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    }
+  ],
+  "markdown": "# World (2026-04-26 23:40 UTC)\nRegime: Steady — no dominant macro signal\nSF Index: Disagree 44 | GeoRisk 29 | Breadth +0.25 | Activity 100\nBaseline: last 12h\n\n## [divergence] Bank of England Maintain current rate… lagging Lisa Murkowski vote for the next Fed … — 32¢ gap [Fed / monetary policy]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Will Lisa Murkowski vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?: Lisa Murkowski\",\"Δ\":\"78c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Will the Bank of England Maintain current rate at the April Bank of England Mone\",\"Δ\":\"88c\"}\n- gap: 32\n- theme: Fed / monetary policy\n- triggerTicker: KXVOTEFEDCHAIR-27-LMUR\n- laggingTicker: KXCBDECISIONENGLAND-26APR30-HOLD\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-4582tq`\n  → Will Lisa Murkowski vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?: Lisa Murkowski spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [divergence] Russia enter Ternuvate again by...? lagging Russia capture Toretske by...? — 26¢ gap [Ukraine / Russia conflict]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Will Russia capture Toretske by...?: April 30\",\"Δ\":\"15c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by...?: May 31\",\"Δ\":\"33c\"}\n- gap: 26\n- theme: Ukraine / Russia conflict\n- triggerTicker: 0x981aabe3983d4b9110df4f6a3f9766a7f8def6d13a57147a481d90475c33157c\n- laggingTicker: 0xda70183170dabffacfcaf4d3f28cc8d02654eebc5f3821d0573aa9468d5acf6d\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-4f1xwr`\n  → Will Russia capture Toretske by...?: April 30 spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [regime_shift] activity spike, conviction rising: Activity 33→100 (+67)\n- baselineAt: 2026-04-26T11:45:00.096Z\n- driver: \n- primaryMover: Activity\n- moves: [{\"k\":\"Activity\",\"from\":33,\"to\":100,\"Δ\":67,\"unit\":\"\"}]\n- atBaseline: {\"disagreement\":40,\"geoRisk\":26,\"breadth\":0.29,\"activity\":33}\n- now: {\"disagreement\":44,\"geoRisk\":29,\"breadth\":0.25,\"activity\":100}\n  → 24h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=24h`\n\n## [consensus_break] RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above?: 37 markets deeply split (σ=45¢, range 94¢)\n- seriesKey: KXRTX5090MON\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXRTX5090MON-26APR30-0.293\",\"title\":\"Will the RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $0.293 on Apr 30?: Above $0.29\",\"price\":97},{\"ticker\":\"KXRTX5090MON-26APR30-0....\n- dispersion: 45\n- range: 94\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-qbdlvs`\n\n## [divergence] there be more than 40 transit calls t… overshooting How many ships will Iran successfully… — 17¢ gap [Iran / Hormuz crisis]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"How many ships will Iran successfully target by April 30?: 8–9\",\"Δ\":\"11c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Will there be more than 40 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Apr 2\",\"Δ\":\"78c\"}\n- gap: -17\n- theme: Iran / Hormuz crisis\n- triggerTicker: 0x87560f2f8315e681cf44e36d2b1e6bb52c1475f6d109976afd17e28122535eb2\n- laggingTicker: KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26APR26-T40\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-fv0xca`\n  → How many ships will Iran successfully target by April 30?: 8–9 spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [consensus_break] BNB price?: 12 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 94¢)\n- seriesKey: KXBNBD\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXBNBD-26MAY0117-T514.99\",\"title\":\"BNB price  on May 1, 2026?: $515 or above\",\"price\":97},{\"ticker\":\"KXBNBD-26MAY0117-T519.99\",\"title\":\"BNB price  on May 1, 2026?: $...\n- dispersion: 44\n- range: 94\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-anghki`\n\n## [consensus_break] James Bialota be the Republican nominee for …: 3 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 92¢)\n- seriesKey: KXSDPRIMARY\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXSDPRIMARY-ALR26-MJAC\",\"title\":\"Will Marty Jackley be the Republican nominee for SD-AL?: Marty Jackley\",\"price\":95},{\"ticker\":\"KXSDPRIMARY-ALR26-JBIA\",\"title\":\"Will...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 92\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-jf3zpp`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 93% yes in 4h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASW-26APR27-3.860\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $3.860?: Above 3.860\n- price: 93\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.93\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASW-26APR27-3.860`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASW-26APR27-3.860`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 91% yes in 4h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASW-26APR27-3.840\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $3.840?: Above 3.840\n- price: 91\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.91\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASW-26APR27-3.840`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASW-26APR27-3.840`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 91% yes in 4h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASW-26APR27-4.100\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $4.100?: Above 4.100\n- price: 91\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.91\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASW-26APR27-4.100`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASW-26APR27-4.100`\n\n## Zoom\n- **Iran** — 266 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/iran`\n- **Oil & Energy** — 489 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/oil`\n- **Fed & Rates** — 1273 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/fed-rate`\n- **Recession** — 691 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/recession`\n- **2026 Elections** — 2841 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/election-2026`\n- **Crypto** — 1453 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/bitcoin`\n- **Ukraine/Russia** — 319 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/ukraine`\n- **China/Taiwan** — 245 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/china`\n\n---\nPath: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world\nOp: snapshot · Generated in 3950ms",
+  "markdownTokenEstimate": 1813
+}