Add world state snapshot for 2026-04-25

2026-04-25.json

@@ -0,0 +1,123 @@
+{
+  "date": "2026-04-25",
+  "timestamp": "2026-04-25T23:50:29.279Z",
+  "index": {
+    "disagreement": 62,
+    "geoRisk": 49,
+    "breadth": 0.19,
+    "activity": 71
+  },
+  "traditional": [
+    {
+      "symbol": "SPY",
+      "price": 713.2,
+      "changePct": 0.56
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "QQQ",
+      "price": 663.38,
+      "changePct": 1.43
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IWM",
+      "price": 276.76,
+      "changePct": 0.58
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "VIXY",
+      "price": 28.79,
+      "changePct": 1.05
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "SHY",
+      "price": 82.58,
+      "changePct": 0.12
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IEF",
+      "price": 95.56,
+      "changePct": 0.17
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "TLT",
+      "price": 86.7,
+      "changePct": 0.16
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "HYG",
+      "price": 80.5,
+      "changePct": 0.16
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "GLD",
+      "price": 432.14,
+      "changePct": 0.37
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "USO",
+      "price": 132.32,
+      "changePct": -2.24
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "UNG",
+      "price": 10.31,
+      "changePct": -1.86
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "CPER",
+      "price": 36.97,
+      "changePct": -0.07
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "UUP",
+      "price": 27.46,
+      "changePct": -0.25
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "FXE",
+      "price": 108.15,
+      "changePct": 0.21
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "XLE",
+      "price": 56.81,
+      "changePct": -0.27
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "EEM",
+      "price": 63.72,
+      "changePct": 2.36
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IBIT",
+      "price": 44.05,
+      "changePct": -0.25
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "ETHE",
+      "price": 18.85,
+      "changePct": 0.37
+    }
+  ],
+  "topics": [],
+  "topEdges": [],
+  "divergences": [
+    {
+      "description": "Russia enter Shevchenko by...? overshooting Russia enter Krasnoiarske by...? — 27¢ gap [Ukraine / Russia conflict]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "Trump say \"Make Iran Great Again\"? lagging USD hit ___ Iranian rials? — 18¢ gap [Iran / Hormuz crisis]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "Kanye West / Ye visit Israel? overshooting Israel military action against Damasc… — 18¢ gap [Middle East / Israel]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    }
+  ],
+  "markdown": "# World (2026-04-25 23:45 UTC)\nRegime: Steady — no dominant macro signal\nSF Index: Disagree 62 | GeoRisk 49 | Breadth +0.19 | Activity 71\nBaseline: last 12h\n\n## [divergence] Russia enter Shevchenko by...? overshooting Russia enter Krasnoiarske by...? — 27¢ gap [Ukraine / Russia conflict]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by...?: May 31\",\"Δ\":\"16c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Will Russia enter Shevchenko by...?: May 31\",\"Δ\":\"84c\"}\n- gap: -27\n- theme: Ukraine / Russia conflict\n- triggerTicker: 0xbd2a193eba83cf567eec2e0f1754cdea862e6829c89dbc476d7e911ad89e0f33\n- laggingTicker: 0x999c477e6c9aedeaa28735dc02fe9076f8088a020b2ca329c0acc2d28876c4f4\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-jzywbs`\n  → Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by...?: May 31 spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [regime_shift] activity spike, conviction rising: Activity 17→71 (+54), Disagreement 42→62 (+20), GeoRisk 59→49 (-10)\n- baselineAt: 2026-04-25T11:45:00.048Z\n- driver: \n- primaryMover: Activity\n- moves: [{\"k\":\"Activity\",\"from\":17,\"to\":71,\"Δ\":54,\"unit\":\"\"},{\"k\":\"Disagreement\",\"from\":42,\"to\":62,\"Δ\":20,\"unit\":\"\"},{\"k\":\"GeoRisk\",\"from\":59,\"to\":49,\"Δ\":-10,\"unit\":\"\"}]\n- atBaseline: {\"disagreement\":42,\"geoRisk\":59,\"breadth\":0.28,\"activity\":17}\n- now: {\"disagreement\":62,\"geoRisk\":49,\"breadth\":0.19,\"activity\":71}\n  → 24h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=24h`\n\n## [divergence] Trump say \"Make Iran Great Again\"? lagging USD hit ___ Iranian rials? — 18¢ gap [Iran / Hormuz crisis]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by April 30?: ↑ 1.6M\",\"Δ\":\"26c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Will Trump say \\\"Make Iran Great Again\\\" before May 1, 2026?: Make Iran Great Agai\",\"Δ\":\"23c\"}\n- gap: 18\n- theme: Iran / Hormuz crisis\n- triggerTicker: 0x340c8d1a7e86c8d29e56bf6b33b21ead19edd840b27f373981430e4757faec4d\n- laggingTicker: KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26MAY01-MAKE\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-181bkw`\n  → Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by April 30?: ↑ 1.6M spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [divergence] Kanye West / Ye visit Israel? overshooting Israel military action against Damasc… — 18¢ gap [Middle East / Israel]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Israel military action against Damascus by...?: June 30\",\"Δ\":\"-20c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Will Kanye West / Ye visit Israel before Jan 1, 2027?: Yes\",\"Δ\":\"54c\"}\n- gap: -18\n- theme: Middle East / Israel\n- triggerTicker: 0xeb4beaefa070c6ccfef90eb088852246c9e965b2672a83bc6f4c36ae347817f4\n- laggingTicker: KXKANYEISRAEL-27JAN01\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-5nd9x7`\n  → Israel military action against Damascus by...?: June 30 spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [consensus_break] RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above?: 37 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 93¢)\n- seriesKey: KXRTX5090MON\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXRTX5090MON-26APR30-0.293\",\"title\":\"Will the RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $0.293 on Apr 30?: Above $0.29\",\"price\":96},{\"ticker\":\"KXRTX5090MON-26APR30-0....\n- dispersion: 44\n- range: 93\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-qbdlvs`\n\n## [consensus_break] James Bialota be the Republican nominee for …: 3 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 91¢)\n- seriesKey: KXSDPRIMARY\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXSDPRIMARY-ALR26-MJAC\",\"title\":\"Will Marty Jackley be the Republican nominee for SD-AL?: Marty Jackley\",\"price\":95},{\"ticker\":\"KXSDPRIMARY-ALR26-JBIA\",\"title\":\"Will...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 91\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-jf3zpp`\n\n## [consensus_break] Republicans win the Senate race in Colorado?: 4 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 90¢)\n- seriesKey: SENATECO\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"SENATECO-28-D\",\"title\":\"Will Democratics win the Senate race in Colorado?: Democratic party\",\"price\":87},{\"ticker\":\"SENATECO-28-R\",\"title\":\"Will Republicans win the ...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 90\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-gn87t`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% yes in 4h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASD-26APR26-4.090\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $4.090?: Above 4.090\n- price: 95\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.95\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASD-26APR26-4.090`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASD-26APR26-4.090`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% no in 4h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASD-26APR26-4.135\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $4.135?: Above 4.135\n- price: 5\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.05\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASD-26APR26-4.135`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASD-26APR26-4.135`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 94% yes in 4h — How long will Donald Trump speak for at Whit…\n- ticker: KXTRUMPMENTIONDURATION-APR2626-13\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: How long will Donald Trump speak for at White House Correspondents' Dinner?: 14 or above\n- price: 94\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.94\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXTRUMPMENTIONDURATION-APR2626-13`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXTRUMPMENTIONDURATION-APR2626-13`\n\n## Zoom\n- **Iran** — 273 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/iran`\n- **Oil & Energy** — 494 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/oil`\n- **Fed & Rates** — 1260 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/fed-rate`\n- **Recession** — 685 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/recession`\n- **2026 Elections** — 2854 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/election-2026`\n- **Crypto** — 1501 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/bitcoin`\n- **Ukraine/Russia** — 321 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/ukraine`\n- **China/Taiwan** — 280 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/china`\n\n---\nPath: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world\nOp: snapshot · Generated in 4508ms",
+  "markdownTokenEstimate": 1860
+}