Add world state snapshot for 2026-05-02

2026-05-02.json

@@ -0,0 +1,123 @@
+{
+  "date": "2026-05-02",
+  "timestamp": "2026-05-02T23:50:49.292Z",
+  "index": {
+    "disagreement": 43,
+    "geoRisk": 19,
+    "breadth": 0.21,
+    "activity": 33
+  },
+  "traditional": [
+    {
+      "symbol": "SPY",
+      "price": 719.72,
+      "changePct": -0.05
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "QQQ",
+      "price": 673.11,
+      "changePct": 0.84
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IWM",
+      "price": 278.72,
+      "changePct": 0.07
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "VIXY",
+      "price": 27.37,
+      "changePct": 0.81
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "SHY",
+      "price": 82.24,
+      "changePct": -0.32
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IEF",
+      "price": 94.76,
+      "changePct": -0.22
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "TLT",
+      "price": 85.67,
+      "changePct": -0.3
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "HYG",
+      "price": 80.07,
+      "changePct": -0.36
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "GLD",
+      "price": 423.23,
+      "changePct": -0.08
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "USO",
+      "price": 143.43,
+      "changePct": -2.49
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "UNG",
+      "price": 10.71,
+      "changePct": 0.99
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "CPER",
+      "price": 36.24,
+      "changePct": -0.77
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "UUP",
+      "price": 27.42,
+      "changePct": 0.18
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "FXE",
+      "price": 108.12,
+      "changePct": -0.18
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "XLE",
+      "price": 58.83,
+      "changePct": -1.33
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "EEM",
+      "price": 64.21,
+      "changePct": 0.38
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IBIT",
+      "price": 44.17,
+      "changePct": 1.84
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "ETHE",
+      "price": 18.72,
+      "changePct": 2.02
+    }
+  ],
+  "topics": [],
+  "topEdges": [],
+  "divergences": [
+    {
+      "description": "VA-10 House Election Winner lagging South Carolina Governor Democratic Pr… — 55¢ gap [US Elections]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "Cadillac Championship: Will Jordan Sp… lagging Jordan Spieth beat Russell Henley in … — 50¢ gap [Middle East / Israel]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "UK Annual GDP Growth overshooting Spain GDP growth rate QoQ for Q1 be a… — 18¢ gap [US fiscal / recession]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    }
+  ],
+  "markdown": "# World (2026-05-02 23:45 UTC)\nRegime: Steady — no dominant macro signal\nSF Index: Disagree 43 | GeoRisk 19 | Breadth +0.21 | Activity 33\nBaseline: last 12h\n\n## [divergence] VA-10 House Election Winner lagging South Carolina Governor Democratic Pr… — 55¢ gap [US Elections]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"South Carolina Governor Democratic Primary Winner: Justin A. Bennett\",\"Δ\":\"35c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"VA-10 House Election Winner: Democratic Party\",\"Δ\":\"49c\"}\n- gap: 55\n- theme: US Elections\n- triggerTicker: 0x743228557c26e8794a431cada6e3b2b9c40febcc00e201ef10872923f92ccc5f\n- laggingTicker: 0xf7baa091d720a429809c88e624df633920d3517df25ffea679d9ebb8b4ea2f24\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-loa91v`\n  → South Carolina Governor Democratic Primary Winner: Justin A. Bennett spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [divergence] Cadillac Championship: Will Jordan Sp… lagging Jordan Spieth beat Russell Henley in … — 50¢ gap [Middle East / Israel]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Will Jordan Spieth beat Russell Henley in the Cadillac Championship?: Jordan Spi\",\"Δ\":\"29c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Cadillac Championship: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 5?: Jordan Spieth\",\"Δ\":\"9c\"}\n- gap: 50\n- theme: Middle East / Israel\n- triggerTicker: KXPGAH2H-CAC26JSPIRHEN-JSPI\n- laggingTicker: KXPGATOP5-CAC26-JSPI\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-l8dyt3`\n  → Will Jordan Spieth beat Russell Henley in the Cadillac Championship?: Jordan Spi spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [divergence] UK Annual GDP Growth overshooting Spain GDP growth rate QoQ for Q1 be a… — 18¢ gap [US fiscal / recession]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Will Spain GDP growth rate QoQ for Q1 2026 be above 0.2%?: Above 0.2%\",\"Δ\":\"30c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"UK Annual GDP Growth 2026: 1-2%\",\"Δ\":\"46c\"}\n- gap: -18\n- theme: US fiscal / recession\n- triggerTicker: KXESGDPQOQF-26JUN25-T0.2\n- laggingTicker: 0x79558ff86ae0d59862750f49da4ee3658d5457b39fdb3970753f4ced2076ae3b\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-z08nv0`\n  → Will Spain GDP growth rate QoQ for Q1 2026 be above 0.2%?: Above 0.2% spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [consensus_break] #1 Movie on Netflix have at least 40 million…: 4 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 94¢)\n- seriesKey: KXNETFLIXTOPVIEWSMOVIE\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXNETFLIXTOPVIEWSMOVIE-26MAY04-30\",\"title\":\"Will the #1 Movie on Netflix have at least 30 million views?: At least 30 million\",\"price\":97},{\"ticker\":\"KXNETFLIXTOPVIE...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 94\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-xbkfxl`\n\n## [consensus_break] James Bialota be the Republican nominee for …: 3 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 92¢)\n- seriesKey: KXSDPRIMARY\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXSDPRIMARY-ALR26-MJAC\",\"title\":\"Will Marty Jackley be the Republican nominee for SD-AL?: Marty Jackley\",\"price\":95},{\"ticker\":\"KXSDPRIMARY-ALR26-JBIA\",\"title\":\"Will...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 92\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-jf3zpp`\n\n## [consensus_break] Republicans win the Senate race in Colorado?: 4 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 90¢)\n- seriesKey: SENATECO\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"SENATECO-28-D\",\"title\":\"Will Democratics win the Senate race in Colorado?: Democratic party\",\"price\":87},{\"ticker\":\"SENATECO-28-R\",\"title\":\"Will Republicans win the ...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 90\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-gn87t`\n\n## [regime_shift] market gone quiet: Activity 71→33 (-38)\n- baselineAt: 2026-05-02T11:45:00.260Z\n- driver: \n- primaryMover: Activity\n- moves: [{\"k\":\"Activity\",\"from\":71,\"to\":33,\"Δ\":-38,\"unit\":\"\"}]\n- atBaseline: {\"disagreement\":35,\"geoRisk\":21,\"breadth\":0.25,\"activity\":71}\n- now: {\"disagreement\":43,\"geoRisk\":19,\"breadth\":0.21,\"activity\":33}\n  → 24h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=24h`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% yes in 4h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASD-26MAY03-4.430\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $4.430?: Above 4.430\n- price: 95\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.95\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASD-26MAY03-4.430`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASD-26MAY03-4.430`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% no in 4h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASD-26MAY03-4.460\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $4.460?: Above 4.460\n- price: 5\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.05\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASD-26MAY03-4.460`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASD-26MAY03-4.460`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 91% yes in 4h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASD-26MAY03-4.440\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $4.440?: Above 4.440\n- price: 91\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.91\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASD-26MAY03-4.440`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASD-26MAY03-4.440`\n\n## Zoom\n- **Iran** — 211 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/iran`\n- **Oil & Energy** — 379 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/oil`\n- **Fed & Rates** — 1180 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/fed-rate`\n- **Recession** — 666 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/recession`\n- **2026 Elections** — 2880 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/election-2026`\n- **Crypto** — 1397 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/bitcoin`\n- **Ukraine/Russia** — 279 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/ukraine`\n- **China/Taiwan** — 275 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/china`\n\n---\nPath: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world\nOp: snapshot · Generated in 4966ms",
+  "markdownTokenEstimate": 1809
+}