Add world state snapshot for 2026-05-01

2026-05-01.json

@@ -0,0 +1,123 @@
+{
+  "date": "2026-05-01",
+  "timestamp": "2026-05-01T23:50:16.517Z",
+  "index": {
+    "disagreement": 49,
+    "geoRisk": 29,
+    "breadth": 0.23,
+    "activity": 17
+  },
+  "traditional": [
+    {
+      "symbol": "SPY",
+      "price": 720.1,
+      "changePct": 1.04
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "QQQ",
+      "price": 667.48,
+      "changePct": 0.12
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IWM",
+      "price": 278.53,
+      "changePct": 2.73
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "VIXY",
+      "price": 27.15,
+      "changePct": -3.1
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "SHY",
+      "price": 82.5,
+      "changePct": 0.13
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IEF",
+      "price": 94.97,
+      "changePct": 0.16
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "TLT",
+      "price": 85.93,
+      "changePct": 0.49
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "HYG",
+      "price": 80.36,
+      "changePct": 0.26
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "GLD",
+      "price": 423.57,
+      "changePct": 1.47
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "USO",
+      "price": 147.09,
+      "changePct": -2.52
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "UNG",
+      "price": 10.61,
+      "changePct": 4.38
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "CPER",
+      "price": 36.52,
+      "changePct": 1.56
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "UUP",
+      "price": 27.37,
+      "changePct": -0.87
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "FXE",
+      "price": 108.31,
+      "changePct": 0.51
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "XLE",
+      "price": 59.62,
+      "changePct": 1.03
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "EEM",
+      "price": 63.97,
+      "changePct": 2.07
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IBIT",
+      "price": 43.37,
+      "changePct": 1.14
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "ETHE",
+      "price": 18.35,
+      "changePct": 1.33
+    }
+  ],
+  "topics": [],
+  "topEdges": [],
+  "divergences": [
+    {
+      "description": "nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 0.5%… overshooting France GDP growth rate QoQ for Q1 be … — 73¢ gap [US fiscal / recession]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "BTC trimmed mean be below:59 PM ET? overshooting ETH trimmed mean be below:59 PM ET? — 50¢ gap [Crypto]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "AL-02 House Election Winner overshooting AL-02 House Election Winner — 39¢ gap [US Elections]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    }
+  ],
+  "markdown": "# World (2026-05-01 23:40 UTC)\nRegime: Steady — no dominant macro signal\nSF Index: Disagree 42 | GeoRisk 29 | Breadth +0.24 | Activity 17\nBaseline: last 12h\n\n## [residual] 27.2σ volume @ 95¢ — rate of CPI inflation be above 3.2% for the year …\n- ticker: KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T3.2\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.2% for the year ending in May 2026?: Above 3.2%\n- price: 95\n- residualVr: 27.158\n- vr: 28.693\n- volume24h: 1060\n  → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-f2ve2r`\n  → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T3.2`\n  → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T3.2`\n\n## [divergence] nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 0.5%… overshooting World GDP Growth — 79¢ gap [US fiscal / recession]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"2026 World GDP Growth: 3.3%\",\"Δ\":\"30c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 0.5% in Q2 2026?: Above 0.5%\",\"Δ\":\"90c\"}\n- gap: -79\n- theme: US fiscal / recession\n- triggerTicker: 0xb8e453f1147b9ed4b0303476ca53d065137dee9ab0286e9b281e1c9eb1e3b627\n- laggingTicker: KXNGDPQ-26Q2-C0.5\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-8t29jj`\n  → 2026 World GDP Growth: 3.3% spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [divergence] BTC trimmed mean be below:59 PM ET? overshooting ETH trimmed mean be below:59 PM ET? — 50¢ gap [Crypto]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Will ETH trimmed mean be below $2000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026?: Below $\",\"Δ\":\"35c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Will BTC trimmed mean be below $75000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026?: Below \",\"Δ\":\"66c\"}\n- gap: -50\n- theme: Crypto\n- triggerTicker: KXETHMINMON-ETH-26MAY31-200000\n- laggingTicker: KXBTCMINMON-BTC-26MAY31-7500000\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-7v8r6m`\n  → Will ETH trimmed mean be below $2000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026?: Below $ spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [divergence] WA-08 House Election Winner overshooting AL-02 House Election Winner — 39¢ gap [US Elections]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"AL-02 House Election Winner: Democratic Party\",\"Δ\":\"-33c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"WA-08 House Election Winner: Democratic Party\",\"Δ\":\"89c\"}\n- gap: -39\n- theme: US Elections\n- triggerTicker: 0x9ae9e84c0d3b66ee416c0caa915777397b9c656939a0621ecd8c2572073c8893\n- laggingTicker: 0xbd170150af81f000d76f1dd82c6cd95d416f011eddd1cfd284c9f19201747621\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-lp5zg7`\n  → AL-02 House Election Winner: Democratic Party spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [consensus_break] Florida Republican Senate Primary Winner: 3 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 92¢)\n- seriesKey: 89321\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"0x9743ef770e5caafc6a8676aaa87d4303908ebf31f42826cc152948964d0a05d7\",\"title\":\"Florida Republican Senate Primary Winner: Ashley B. Moody\",\"price\":95},{\"ticker\":\"0x0a9c...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 92\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-6wtqre`\n\n## [consensus_break] # of seats won by PH in Colombia Senate Elec…: 3 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 93¢)\n- seriesKey: 246428\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"0xa776e164ff58adec236ffbc41b020e0493f01dbe0603063bb69dca6370f87982\",\"title\":\"# of seats won by PH in Colombia Senate Election?: 27-29\",\"price\":6},{\"ticker\":\"0x37d29a...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 93\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → drill election-2026 · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/election-2026`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-xrv5tp`\n\n## [consensus_break] James Bialota be the Republican nominee for …: 3 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 92¢)\n- seriesKey: KXSDPRIMARY\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXSDPRIMARY-ALR26-MJAC\",\"title\":\"Will Marty Jackley be the Republican nominee for SD-AL?: Marty Jackley\",\"price\":95},{\"ticker\":\"KXSDPRIMARY-ALR26-JBIA\",\"title\":\"Will...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 92\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-jf3zpp`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 94% no in 4h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASD-26MAY02-4.475\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $4.475?: Above 4.475\n- price: 6\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.06\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASD-26MAY02-4.475`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASD-26MAY02-4.475`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 93% yes in 4h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASD-26MAY02-4.430\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $4.430?: Above 4.430\n- price: 93\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.93\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASD-26MAY02-4.430`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASD-26MAY02-4.430`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% yes in 14h — Euphoria Season 3 have above 2600000 Total S…\n- ticker: KXTVSHOW-EUP26APR30-2600000\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will Euphoria Season 3 have above 2600000 Total Season Views on Luminate during April 24 - April 30, 2026?: Above 2.6M\n- price: 95\n- settlesInHours: 14\n- impliedProbability: 0.95\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXTVSHOW-EUP26APR30-2600000`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXTVSHOW-EUP26APR30-2600000`\n\n## Zoom\n- **Iran** — 217 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/iran`\n- **Oil & Energy** — 363 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/oil`\n- **Fed & Rates** — 1184 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/fed-rate`\n- **Recession** — 666 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/recession`\n- **2026 Elections** — 2878 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/election-2026`\n- **Crypto** — 1395 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/bitcoin`\n- **Ukraine/Russia** — 279 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/ukraine`\n- **China/Taiwan** — 272 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/china`\n\n---\nPath: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world\nOp: snapshot · Generated in 0ms",
+  "markdownTokenEstimate": 1850
+}