| --- |
| license: cc-by-4.0 |
| language: |
| - en |
| pretty_name: Prediction Market Calibration Scorecards |
| tags: |
| - prediction-markets |
| - calibration |
| - brier-score |
| - log-loss |
| - forecasting |
| source_datasets: |
| - original |
| --- |
| |
| # Prediction Market Calibration Scorecards |
|
|
| Monthly Brier + log-loss calibration breakdowns for Kalshi + Polymarket. Each month provides mean Brier, mean log-loss, per-venue and per-category breakdowns, and a 10-bucket calibration histogram (actual vs predicted). Published with a 14-day delay after month-end to capture late resolutions. |
|
|
| ## License and Use |
|
|
| This dataset is released under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International |
| (CC-BY-4.0; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). You may use it |
| freely for personal, research, educational, and commercial purposes — including |
| training, evaluating, and fine-tuning machine-learning models. Attribution is |
| required when the dataset is redistributed in substantially its original form |
| or cited in published work; credit as "SimpleFunctions (simplefunctions.dev)". |
|
|
| Additional terms apply: you may not re-host this dataset, in whole or in |
| substantial part, as an API or service that functionally substitutes for a |
| SimpleFunctions endpoint. See Terms §13.2 at https://simplefunctions.dev/terms. |
|
|
| Provenance, update cadence, and schema are documented below. |
|
|
| ## Update cadence |
|
|
| Monthly (14-day delay). |
|
|
| ## Provenance |
|
|
| Source: https://simplefunctions.dev |
| Generator: SimpleFunctions public data pipeline |
| Contact: patrick@simplefunctions.dev |
|
|
