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formed into outputs that are consonant with the objectives of the Club of Rome, as these objectives were set down in the first section of this document.
Our views of the overall work process are now much clearer, as can be seen in the general model provided on the next page (Fig.6). Into this model we have further introduced an indication of our expectations beyond the execution of the project itself. This was done solely to show how the total idea that inspired the Club of Rome might be viewed in its unfolding during and after the assumed successful conclusion of this particular project. It is in this sense that the prospective possibilities shown below the broken line that divides the diagram ought to be interpreted.
Ob. 1 The prime objectives ascribed to the project by the Club of Rome.
Ob. 2 First changes in Ob. 1 as a result of interim findings by the work Group.
Ob. 3 Final changes in Ob. 1 as a result of the definition and configuration of the Problématique.
Changes in Ob. 1, Ob. 2, Ob. 3 result in firm objectives (0) and required means (M).
M Means provided by the Club of Rome to the Project.
E Situation existing in world system as perceived by Project.
E₁ The uncontrolled inputs from the Problématique on which Project will work.
E₂ Adjustments in the perception of the Problématique as a result of its definition and configuration.
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THE PROBLEMATIQUE:
AN OVERVIEW OF THE SITUATION
1. THE IDEA OF "PROBLEMATIQUE"
It is in the nature of our languages, hence of our manner of perceiving reality, to see and call the dissonant elements in a situation, "problems".
Similarly, we proceed from the belief that problems have "solutions" -- although we may not necessarily discover these in the case of every problem we encounter. This peculiarity of our perception causes us to view difficulties as things that are clearly defined and discrete in themselves. It also leads us to believe that to solve a problem it is sufficient to observe and manipulate it in its own terms by applying an external problem-solving technique to it.
Although it is true that there are certain problems (mostly in the field of technology and engineering) that can be dealt with in this way, it is also becoming quite evident that such problems are no longer the most important ones with which we must deal.
When we consider the truly critical issues of our time such as environmental deterioration, poverty, endemic ill-health, urban blight, criminality, etc., we find it virtually impossible to view them as problems that exist in isolation -- or, as problems capable of being solved in their own terms. For even the most cursory examination will at least reveal the more obvious (though not necessarily the most important) links between problems. Where endemic ill-health exists, poverty cannot easily be divorced from it, or vice versa. Certain kinds of criminal behavior often,
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A value-base explicitly stipulates certain assumptions about what is "good" and what "bad." In the past it was not always necessary to make such a stipulation because a problem could be recognized clearly and singularly as a problem and therefore fell automatically into a negative value category. This is not the case nowadays when we must deal with the problématique of a whole world-wide situation. In so extended and complex a problem-area the value premisses reveal themselves as being so confused that it becomes imperative to define a value-base that will govern the work from the very outset.
The value-base to be selected must satisfy certain fundamental criteria. First, it must qualify as a heuristic tool-concept that can be used throughout the study. Secondly, it must be consonant with the initial perceptions and beliefs that have triggered the work. Thirdly, it must support, and in some sense justify, the outcomes that are expected from the effort. The second and third criteria have already been elaborated throughout the preceding pages; nevertheless, it might bear repeating here that the ground of presuppositions from which we shall start is the belief, backed by considerable empirical evidence, that there are strong interactions among the events which create our situation and that, while it is impossible fully to isolate the former, it should be feasible to identify, through modeling, some critical aspects of their temporal and spatial morphology. And, moreover, that such identification might also permit us to anticipate a number of dissonances which may not exist at present, but whose developing conjuncture could
* This manner of proceeding is actually implicit whenever we say that something represents a "problem". When we call occurrences such as hunger, or over-population, or lack of education, "problems" we are in fact defining them in this way because according to our value system they represent a state that is bad, in comparison to an alternative possible state -- which we call "solution" -- that we accept as being good.
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THE CLUB OF ROME
THE PREDICAMENT OF MANKIND
WORK STATEMENT AND PROPOSAL
1. INTRODUCTION
As in every epoch of its existence, mankind today finds itself in a particular "situation". And as always this situation is created and nurtured by those who live amid the myriad events that comprise it -- events that now are in the process of tumultuous and ever accelerating change, events that now increasingly and even violently clash with one another. In some deep sense our situation compels us to animate and perpetuate it almost blindly, and thus to move toward a future whose shape or quality we do not comprehend, whose surprises we have not succeeded in reducing to a rational frame of ideas, whose complexities we are not in the least sure of being able to control.
There are, however, a few basic perceptions that possess both wide currency and increasing persuasiveness, by means of which people in many different walks of life have begun to apprehend the nature of this situation. It is thanks to such perceptions that we have come to recognize the forces that hold us in their
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penetrate the areas of interdependence among problems and clusters of problems; (2) to manipulate the models artificially -- so as to observe the behavior of the situation's components under differently structured configurations. After the modelling work has been completed it should be possible to elaborate suggestions for curative or corrective action that might prove helpful in developing policies. However, to be taken, all these steps require that a ground be established upon which the entire modelling effort can be made to rest. Such a ground is what we shall refer to as the "value-base."
3. THE VALUE-BASE
The primary aim of modelling is to give the subject a shape, a structure, a configuration that is determined by an objective which, itself, is external to the subject. Hence the clarifications or insights that might be obtained from a successful modelling effort are never reached in terms of the subject (i.e., a problem or a situation) but in terms of the external objective to satisfy which the modelling was undertaken in the first place. Such an objective always entails a value, and the setting of it must therefore create the particular value-base that gives meaning and direction to the whole endeavor.
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This obviously does not mean that the effort will be entered into blindly. On the contrary, it means the circumstances are such that the greatest freedom of action and flexibility of invention must be preserved. The specific methodological field within which we shall be able to make the needed choices is large, but it can be described if we outline the project's operational evolution, as is done in the flow chart (Fig. 5) on the following page.
This chart shows the step-by-step development of the project starting with the given value-base that leads on the one hand to the creation of a normative image of the future and on the other hand to the setting of the correct objective/means level. From this ground (which satisfies the normative and some of the strategic requirements to start the work) the project proceeds to the identification of "events", namely, the uncontrolled inputs, and advances through self-evident logical steps to the goal.
Each of these steps will require one or more methods or methodological approaches. Decisions with regard to such approaches will have to be made in the course of the work. There are, in fact, several levels of methodology that will have to be closely considered at each stage. A number of these are shown, by way of example and illustration (in Table IV on the page 58) as they pertain to the work in process when such work is broken down into the three fundamental planning categories which are: the Normative, the Strategic, and the Operational.
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today's problematique throughout the world, and to attempt to determine the dynamics of the interactions which seemingly exacerbate the situation as a whole.
2) To develop an initial, coarse-grain, "model" or models of this dynamic situation in the expectation that such models will reveal both those systemic components that are most critical and those interactions that are most generally dangerous for the future.
3) To construct a "normative" overview from the foregoing models and to clarify the action implications -- i.e., the political, social, economic, technological, institutional, etc., consequences -- that such an overview might entail and substantiate.
4) To bring everything that has been learnt as a result of this initial effort, to the attention of those in political authority, in the hope that such findings might stimulate the conception of new lines of policy that would be effective in coping with our situation's overall dynamics and its world-wide dimensions.
5) To persuade governments to convene a World Forum,* with whose consent, support, and encouragement an intensive dialogue concerning the findings of the project would be initiated to the end that a much larger and deeper effort could be undertaken. Such an effort would aim at developing the needed operational "macro-models" conducive to endeavors at integrated policy-planning and to the development of new institutions within whose frame of competence such work could be carried out.
*For further information regarding this point, please see Annex II in the last section of this document.
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IV. THE PROPOSAL
The effort as a whole would be divided into two distinct steps:
First: The "project" as described herein, undertaken by the Club of Rome and dealing with the empirical aspects of the situation, its morphology and the interrelationships that operate among its components. This would be the rough modelling phase;
Second: A subsequent and more ambitious phase, hopefully to be undertaken by the World Forum, dealing with the study of the critical aggregations revealed by the initial model and would aim at the discovery of alternative means of interpreting and resolving interface imbalances and to the identification of various options that are suggestive of coordinated policies.
1. SCOPE
At the present juncture, the scope of the project (first step) is seen as follows:
- to define criteria for identifying imbalances of a global nature especially with reference to their future evolution;
- to attempt a qualitative and quantitative delineation of the interactions that appear critically synergistic within the situation created by these imbalances;
- to establish a tentative morphology of problem interfaces and interactions;
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manner in which they interact in relation to the goal must be determined.
Here, the first point to be made is that neither objective nor means are fixed nor static concepts. They constantly interact with each other, with the project -- that is, the work-in-progress -- and with the subject of the work, namely, the events.
This interaction need not necessarily alter the direction of the objective (i.e., the nature of the task) or the nature or quantity of the means. But it is very likely to cause changes in the level of goal-attainment.
This is because the time-span of the work envisaged is something in the order of fifteen months and a learning process will set in as soon as it starts. This, in turn, will alter the perceptual make-up of the Working Group. This process can be outlined as shown on the following page (Fig. 2).
There are further reasons, connected with but differing from the learning process, that force us to consider those differences in level that define a relationship of dependency between output and controlled inputs. This introduces two ideas that are fundamental both methodologically and substantively.
These ideas are:
(1) - "Futurity" or the future dimensions of the events that form the problematique to be investigated; and
(2) - "normative analysis" in the light of which the value-base that was chosen -- i.e., ecological balance -- can be made to govern the objective of the work.
The notion of futurity enters into the argument because there are basically two ways of looking at a situation and per-
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tilvejebringe en mere permanent, løbende oversigt over de nationale situationer, der så kan supple-res med "øjebliksbilleder".
Ktc. har tidligere resolveret, at dette for os var helt ligegyldigt, og det må vel derfor have sit forblivende herved.Man kan formentlig også sige at hovedparten af det omhandlede i større udstrækning henhører under Forskningsrådet og at kun mere bægrænsede områder som ingenioruddannelse er under vort ressort. Men spm. burde evt.drøftes med UM og Forskningsrådet.
9.10.1963.J.Hornemann
Industrii attache Winther
Herring Ferns
Höggård Jensen
of andre War fiel dette
Ja, hvor names å kétid. Möde for Höjgård j.
De to papers must be buried e.g. sendas de int. højke bereandt. til minlige left. Vise reakthorner, men så watt vi have 3-4 exp. en mindest. Had ao vire dem tit kttekel Brynchov og red förste left. Bede Winther (evt. rdrrn.) had as for 3-4 exp. al nye tilsv. papirer. Vi øne have hott mere farm på dett.
10/10.
Yderligere eksemplarerrekvineret telefonisk,
sagen på plads til deres ankomst.
10.10.1963.J.Hornemann.
Extra eksemplarer ankommet.Tilstilles flg. til o-orientering:
Ktc.Brynskov.
Rektor KU
Rektor ÅU
Rektor DTH
RektorKVL?
22.10.1963.J.Hornemann-
Undervisningsministeriet 2. dep. 3. kt. J. nr. OE 27/63
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It should be evident that these Continuous Critical Problems are meant merely to serve as general labels under each of which entire trees or clusters of issues that appear analogous, can be classified. Further, neither their rate of occurrence nor their intensity is uniform throughout the world. Therefore, the causality structure that underlies such a listing is obviously of extreme complexity and actually impossible fully to ascertain through mere observation for, even on direct empirical evidence, it is clear that the true list must be many times larger than what we have given.
However, even from this limited listing we begin to sense that these large problem-areas are system-wide, interdependent, interactive and intersensitive; that they transcend national frontiers, or even regional boundaries; and that they are seemingly immune to linear or sequential resolution.
This, in turn, suggests that when the problem-trees have grown to world-wide proportions their branches intertwine -- or, if we use the image of clusters, we can say that the clusters overlap. Such areas of overlap then create new problem-areas whose description (hence our understanding of them) escapes the boundaries of the original taxonomy. Therefore, the line of approach to be taken must first aim at clarifying the systemic character of the problem-areas, and secondly, must re-state them in a way that will make their most critical synergies visible.
The five frames that will be found on the following two pages are an attempt to give a graphic portrayal of this dynamic and interactive growth of the problem-matique. In each of the frames the problem-areas are symbolized by differently shaped shaded spaces. Fig.1 merely represents an arbitrary and random positioning of such problem-areas, with the aim of describing a situation wherein the example, reveal the morphology of the situation as resembling what is shown in Fig.5 -- namely, as having a composite dynamic core, and differing intensities of interfaces and relationships, all of which must be identified and organized into a unified frame of perception and understanding.
Such an approach -- which can only incompletely be communicated in two-dimensional drawings -- is clearly needed and clearly
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though not always, seem to be related to poverty or slum living conditions. Furthermore, if we try to solve any such problems exclusively in their own terms we quickly discover that what we take to be the solution of one category of problem may itself generate problems of another category (the reduction of death rates in developing areas and the resultant increase in poverty, public unrest, overpopulation, etc., is a good example of this single avenue approach).
Another unfortunate consequence of the preference we display toward orthodox problem-solving is the misapplication of effort and energy. Thus many agronomists devote a great deal of ingenuity toward increasing the yield per acre of our crops without seeming to realize that the particular solution called "agriculture" may possibly no longer represent the single, feasible resolution of the problems clustered under words such as "hunger" or "malnutrition" when the latter are considered in their world-wide dimensions. It seems reasonable, therefore, to postulate that the fragmentation of reality into closed and well-bounded problems creates a new problem whose solution is clearly beyond the scope of the concepts we customarily employ. It is this generalized meta-problem (or meta-system of problems) which we have called and shall continue to call the "problématique" that inheres in our situation.
2. TOWARD A GENERALIZED RATIONALE
The fragmentation of reality caused by our conceptual and linguistic make up notwithstanding, it is still necessary to talk about the situation and to communicate ideas concerning it. Since we have no new language for doing this, we can only approach the notion of the problématique in terms that are familiar to us. We
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WORLD SYSTEM
CLUB OF ROME
THE PROJECT
PROBLÉMATIQUE DEFINED & CONFIGURED
GOVERNMENTS
WORLD FORUM
etc.
NEW POLICY STRUCTURE
Fig. 6
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For these reasons I extend to you my warm congratulations and thanks for this valuable study and for the role which the Bank has played in the past, and I hope will continue to play in attacking rural poverty.
With best wishes,
Yours sincerely,
On behalf of the Chairman of the Board of the Monetary Fund and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Affiliates, we wish to extend to you an invitation to attend our 1974 Annual Meetings. The Meetings will be held at Hotel Washington, D. C., from Monday, September 30, through October 4, 1974.
If you are unable to attend, we should be glad to welcome a representative in your place. Space limitation makes it necessary for us to expand our observer organizations limit the number of persons attending on a sufficient basis. Please inform us of the name of your representative. We desire to assist in reserving accommodation when the enclosed accommodation information and Hotel Accommodation Form is completed and returned.
An Information Booklet is also enclosed.
Please reply directly to:
John Secretariat - Annual Meetings
D.C. - INRD and Affiliates
Washington, D. C.
Common office space will be provided for the meeting at Hotel.
Yours truly,
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4. These dynamic relationships do not appear to be either regular or stable; they are akin rather to evolutionary "jumps" that create imbalances throughout the system.
5. Such imbalances seem to have two major characteristics:
(a) their time-scale of occurrence is relatively short and might be getting shorter;
(b) they are, or appear to be, a-causal inasmuch as each imbalance has impacts that resonate throughout the system, although in varying degrees of intensity. These characteristics will have to be operationally probed in terms of the fundamental criteria that apply to ecosystems:
- Temporality Complementarity
- Spatiality Mutual-determination
- Quality Competitiveness
- Quantity Synergy
6. This might suggest the presence of various kinds of impingement effects within the system that generate new events. These effects could be phenomena like: interface, mismatches, intersensitivity, clusterings, overlaps, synergies, functional dissonances, time-phase dissonances, etc.
It is in terms of these six basic hypotheses that the study will be conducted. The main thrust of the effort will be directed at identifying:
1 - the "events" within the system -- namely, the components of the problematique.
2 - The "attributes" of the events -- namely, the components' functional characteristics.
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The final configuration of situational components to emerge from the proposed study will therefore have a spatial and temporal morphology that embodies the dynamic process that animates critical world problems, when that process is set in the context of a general value framework of ecological balance.
The project will not attempt a forecast of how problems will be apprehended in the future, although the final shape of the system will depend on the integration of alternative perceptions of the future with perceptions that have currency today.
c) Report
The project should result in either one or several reports containing the synthesis of the work conducted, interpreting the new system of world-wide critical interconnections, the key problem-clusters that should be given particular attention, and the methods to be used in their further investigation.
d) Outcome
The reports, by giving a clearer picture of the nature of the problematic interactions, of their relative importance and their dynamic configurations, should be of use as a preliminary indication of possible new and viable directions in the field of policy-making.
Once this initial aim is attained it is the hope of the Club of Rome to have its findings reinterpreted in depth by the kind of instrumentality that was referred to earlier as the World Forum. Such reinterpretation would allow the results of the project to be fitted into the framework of different value systems and molded into new attitudes and outlooks at a higher level of political endeavor where new structures and institutions can be designed.
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Undervisningsministeriet.
3. afd. 2. kt.
OE 27/61-63
Noteringer
FL
/EN-FL
TB
/EN-TB
NL
Ramme-bev.m.v.
Bev.-bidrag afgivet
Efter afgang til
Til akte-ringer
Henvisninger
Sag vedr.:
Sc. and Techn. Pers.
Old mac group on science
and growing points.
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9490 – 93. 2 august
Dato:
Side: OE 27/63.
30. oktober 1963.
./. Vedlagte materiale fra OECD "Committee for Scientific Research, Committee for Scientific and Technical Personnel" og "Joint Advisory Group Progress Report on Sector Reviews" tilstilles hervod hr. rektoren til orientering.
P. M. V.
E. B.
Jørgen Hornemann,
sekr.
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tilvejebringe en mere permanent, løbende oversigt over de nationale situationer, der så kan supple-res med "øjebliksbilleder".
Ktc. har tidligere resolveret, at dette for os var helt ligegyldigt, og det må vel derfor have sit forblivende herved.Man kan formentlig også sige at hovedparten af det omhandlede i større udstrækning henhører under Forskningsrådet og at kun mere bægrænsede områder som ingenioruddannelse er under vort ressort. Men spm. burde evt.drøftes med UM og Forskningsrådet.
9.10.1963.J.Hornemann
Industrii attache Winther
Herring Ferns
Höggård Jensen
of andre War fiel dette
Ja, hvor names å kétid. Möde for Höjgård j.
De to papers must be buried e.g. sendas de int. højke bereandt. til minlige left. Vise reakthorner, men så watt vi have 3-4 exp. en mindest. Had ao vire dem tit kttekel Brynhorn og red förste left. Bede Winther (evt. rdrrn.) had as for 3-4 exp. al nye tilsv. papirer. Vi måe have hott mere form på dett.
10/10.
Yderligere eksemplarerrekvineret telefonisk, sagen på plads til deres ankomst.
10.10.1963.J.Hornemann.
Extra eksemplarer ankommet.Tilstilles flg. til o-orientering:
Ktc.Brynskov.
Rektor KU
Rektor ÅU
Rektor DTH
RektorKVL?
22.10.1963.J.Hornemann-
Undervisningsministeriet 2. dep. 3. kt. J. nr. OE 27/63
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Medeindkaldelse til plenarmøde i Joint Advisory Group for SR og STP sector reviews og growing points. Mødet skal finde sted d.25.april. Et pæx af dokumenterne er indgået, de øvrige kommer senere. Som det fremgår af agendaen, skal der dels afhandles en del specielle, dels en del generelle spørgsmål. Jeg har forsøgt at få oplyst, hvem der på l.session har varetaget vore interesser, men det har vist sig umuligt hidtil. UM har intet herom, Hummeluhr mener, at det var Brynskov (men det er jo EIP og ikke dette), H.er det ikke. Muligt er det jo, at det kan have været industriattache Winther. Men .. i alle tilfælde er der nogle pünkter af interesse, bl.a. diskussionen om en nyorientering af Science Fellowships. Jeg vil imorgen forsøge evt. at få mere at vide om det, men der er ikke så lang tid at løbe på.
3.4.1963.jh.
Dette er noget helt hæte-
geldigt. Vi shal intet
gave herfra.
Nedele.
4/4.
Policy doc. om growing points. Tilkendegiver, at man vil forsøge at intensivere dette arbejde, som vi, mig bekendt ikke har deltaget i hidtil. Hsts evt. drøftet med H Friis på et senere tidspunkt.
5.10.1963.J.Hornemann.
Der indkaldes til nyt møde i den fælles rådgiver-gruppe om sector reviews og growing points. Man har over længere tid arbejdetpå en ändring af disse to temmelig lignende ting, der har verseret i CSR og STP.
Mødet afholdes 28.oktober.
1.dokument giver et rids af status m.h.t. de undersøgelser man konkret er i gang med måd, de hidrorer fra både STP og CSR.
2.dokument opridser policy for den kommende tid.
Man har særlig hæftet sig ved, at et team + en konsulent dårligt kan give andet end et øjebliksbillede af situationen på undersøgelsesområdet.
Dette er i og for sig udmærket som baggrundsmateriale - men Ønsker man yderligere at anvende resultaterne som baggrund for nye policyoplæg i medlemslandene, må man monstatere, at materialet bliver for svagt og tilfældigt og altså ikke adækvat.
Man hst derfor at intensivere medlemslandenes del-tagelse i denne aktivitetsgruppe med henblik på at
Ref. ark.
Undervisningsministeriet 2. dep. 3. kt. J. nr.
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Dear Sir,
With reference to my letter of 18th June 1963, I would like to remind you that the meeting of the Joint Advisory Group (Committee for Scientific Research and Committee for Scientific and Technical Personnel) will be held on Monday 28th October 1963 at the Château de la Muette, 2 rue André Pascal, Paris 16ème with the following agenda:
a) scope and purpose of sector reviews [SR(63)30/STP(63)32]
b) progress report on sector reviews (DAS/BS(63)19)
c) other business
I very much hope that you will be able to attend this meeting.
Yours sincerely,
A.H. Delsemme
Head of Basic Studies Division
cc: Members of the Committee for Scientific Research and of the Committee for Scientific and Technical Personnel; National Delegations.
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RESTRICTED
Paris, 23rd September, 1963
SR(63)32
STP(63)30
Scale 2
Or. Engl.
COMMITTEE FOR SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH
COMMITTEE FOR SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL PERSONNEL
SECTOR REVIEWS IN SCIENCE
SCOPE AND PURPOSE
POLICY NOTE BY THE SECRETARIAT
Reviews of selected sectors of science with implications for economic growth and development are an essential part of the information necessary to achieve the broad programme objectives set by the Committee for Scientific Research [SR(62)39]. The attached policy paper outlines the objectives for such review and indicates the general way in which they can contribute to policy decision, co-operative research, education and planning.
The Committee for Scientific Research will be invited to examine and approve the proposed scope and objectives for sector reviews. This document is being sent to the Committee for Scientific and Technical Personnel for information.
FRA UDENRIGSMINISTERIET
UDEN SKR. DEN
2-10-1963
Underv. min.
4 OKT. 1963
2. dept. 3. kt. OE 27
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1. In document SR(62)40/STP(62)47 consideration is given to the problem of selection of sectors of science for review. It was noted that it is not yet possible to predict the precise contribution to be expected from any specific sector of scientific research to the economy. It was therefore concluded that selection of sectors would have to remain largely empirical, relying mainly on the opinion and judgement of informed individuals. With first results becoming available on a number of the sectors chosen for review it is now possible to examine critically the questions of value and purpose of these reviews. This is necessary not only as a guide for future studies but also to gain maximum benefit from the final stages of work still in progress.
2. There seems little doubt that the sectors already chosen are of prime importance to the economies of the Member countries. Mineral Prospecting, Chemical Engineering, and Metal Physics are all of high significance to basic industry. Automatic Control, particularly with the advent of computers, is creating great industrial and social changes while the Biological Sciences are clearly going to exert a major influence in the future on almost all aspects of life. Operational Research, the last of the sectors in which review has progressed beyond the first preliminaries, is introducing scientific method into a range of governmental and managerial activity. It is thus different in character from the other sectors, but is of great potential importance for a wide range of economic decisions.
3. It is already clear that effective sector review demands a better developed mechanism than the present procedure of Consultant and Expert Group. To seek a full basis of information on opinion, resources and activity in all Member countries on a major scientific sector is more than can be expected of any individual consultant. The most than can be expected is an expression of opinion backed by selected discussion with a limited number of leading experts in the field. This may be a necessary and useful procedure, if done quickly, to provide background material to aid in the choice of sectors but it is only one aspect of the task of making a critical review. To extend beyond this simple methodology involves either greater country participation or the formation of specialist investigation teams of an ad hoc character. In either case a greater number of people will be involved in the survey and it will no longer be possible to allow the details of scope to emerge as the work develops. Clear objectives are essential if the
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necessary degree of co-ordination is to be achieved and value obtained for the effort involved. In addition the present fast changing situation demands speed if use is to be made of the information on more immediate problems certain to be disclosed by review. If review times appreciably exceed one year much of this immediate value will be lost and it is better to plan for maximum utilisation of a limited period of time than to delay the completion in a search for perfection. This implies ready access to all existing data and a defined and established procedure for access to informed opinion in each country.
4. Effective review in the OECD context requires contribution from more than the scientific community itself. Scientific research is followed by application and economic exploitation. These stages of practical utilisation in turn influence the course of research itself as the technical needs of the community become apparent. Information as to resources and needs, potential and trends must be sought in all three areas of interest. The sector review itself can contribute not only to the better utilisation of resources in each aspect separately but also to a much improved mutual understanding of needs and motivation of these essentially different interests. It can help in bringing to scientists an enhanced appreciation of the problems faced in exploitation and to technologists and engineers a better understanding of the necessary conditions and the difficulties of pure research.
5. The principal occasion when all these different interests involved in science and its application meet with a joint responsibility is during the formulatory stage leading to decisions and statements on scientific policy. It is appropriate therefore to aim sector reviews towards assisting this process by providing a skilled analysis of the existing situation and of discernible trends in Member countries at such times as particular sectors are under consideration. This places limitations on the choice of subjects and also sets a time-limit on the review. To gain full value from such an analysis implies that all interested countries should undertake fact-finding surveys at the same time. As the subjects chosen are likely already to be of active interest a certain amount of data will already exist. Supplementing this to the level required for comparative study may require formation of ad hoc teams to assist national machinery.
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6. Selecting sectors ripe for policy decision and extending the situation analysis over all Member countries that wish to participate would have the advantage, not present at the moment, of encouraging the formulation of national policies at about the same time. This will make possible a second stage of exchange through OECD by high level confrontation on the basis of the national policy documents. It would also stimulate international professional co-operation through the federations which are formed in most sectors of high activity.
7. Joint efforts of this type make considerable demands on the time and effort of the many individuals asked to contribute and the importance of the policy issue must not be allowed to exclude those aspects of situation analysis of direct and immediate value to more specialised interests. OECD has already developed machinery to aid in sharing the burden of work in the technological and application fields by co-operative exchange. The problems chosen here are those of already known economic consequence and sector reviews should give direct assistance in detecting such problems. Again in respect of education there is a well developed OECD machinery and the sector review must contribute an enhanced appreciation of the future needs both in terms of numbers, specialisations and quality.
8. In respect of pure science the sector review will achieve very little that has not traditionally existed if it fails to attract the serious attention of those people who can contribute a vision of the long-term possibility of change. The minimum acceptable achievement must be to detect those parts of an economic plan most liable to change as a result of new discovery in science. This does not imply prediction of the ultimate results of research but only detection of those trends which could exert a major influence on technology and where consequently long term economic plans would be vulnerable to the results of scientific discovery.
9. A similar situation exists in relation to technology. Here, however, the implications of research are essentially more predictable since research is specifically aimed towards application and utilisation. Nevertheless it is only recently that systematic attempts have been made to incorporate such forecasts in economic planning. Assistance in improving the accuracy of forecasting and the methodology of these forecasts could be sought from those organisations already established in this field and from technical and planning directors of larger enterprises to whom this is not a new problem.
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10. A sector review aimed at detecting and analysing the trends of research in their relation to economic needs will, without further addition, be a contribution to science. It will aid in optimising deployment of existing research resources and will highlight areas of common endeavour. It will also assist in delineating areas of strong interdisciplinary interest. This latter will become an increasingly important aspect as the number of sectors reviewed increases. Additionally, however, the basic data for the review will contain much detail as to location of research activity, individual programmes of research, numbers of persons engaged, specific skills in use and required etc. Much of this more detailed information would be of direct and immediate value to the scientific community and should be made available as an annex to the review itself.
11. At present facilities and organisation are sufficient only to produce orientation reports as an aid to choice of sector. A sector review of the scope necessary to be an effective contribution to policy and planning in the scientific and economic fields is only possible if:
a) Countries participate directly in the search for information
b) OECD can support national machinery where necessary with ad hoc investigating teams representing the necessary mixture of specialisations
c) OECD has the means to analyse and assess the implications of the data made available.
Given this organisation and incorporating in the review, not only the scientific activity itself but the related economic and technological aspects, then the sector review will provide:
a) An analytical basis to assist national policy formulation in relation to the sector, taking account of its economic implications and of the potential contribution to national effort of international co-operation and exchange.
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b) An opportunity to confront national policies and enhance the effectiveness of the total effort.
c) A contribution to a better appreciation of the problems involved in the inter-relationship of science and technology with all interests in the community.
d) Assistance in detecting aspects of research and education where immediate cooperative effort would be of direct benefit.
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Wednesday, February 5, 1958 - 2:00 P.M. to 4:00 P.M.
Room 6002 Department of State
In the absence of Commissioner Dennick, Miss Goodykoontz presided.
1. Inter-American Activities.
Mr. Simsarian reported that meetings of the Inter-American Committee for Cultural Action are now proceeding three times a week in Mexico City. This Inter-American Committee will include on its agenda a number of subjects in the field of education. Policy papers are now being prepared in the Office of Education on (1) school organization and administration, and (2) pre-school education.
2. International Bureau of Education.
Mr. Simsarian reported that the Department of State has now received a letter from the Secretary of HEW recommending that the United States become a member of the International Bureau of Education. The HEW Secretary expressed the view that U.S. membership in IBE should be obtained through the Office of Education of HEW.
3. UNESCO Program and Budget for 1959-60.
Mr. Lee introduced document ICEA/D/1/58 which had been distributed to the members of the Interdepartmental Committee as a possible U.S. statement to be submitted to UNESCO as the U.S. views and suggestions relating to the program and budget proposals of the UNESCO Director General for 1959-60. It was agreed that the entire document should not be submitted to UNESCO. It was the general view that a number of points made in the statement could be more effectively presented to UNESCO at the next session of the UNESCO Executive Board as well as on an informal basis in discussions with members of the UNESCO Secretariat in Paris. The proposed statement was approved by the Interdepartmental Committee, subject to the following modifications:
Paragraph 31. The comments on paragraph 31 were revised to read as follows:
"On the UNESCO Institute for Education, it is urged that measures be taken to integrate the work of the Institute with that of UNESCO and to make the results of the work of the Institute more widely known and available. In any case, the proposals should ultimately take into account the recommendations made by the Committee of the Executive Board currently examining the work of the UNESCO Institutes in Germany."
Paragraph 43. The comments on paragraph 43 were revised to read as follows:
The U.S. National Commission should consult educators in the U.S. concerning
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concerning the feasibility of undertaking the proposed 1960 case study in this country to analyze educational growth in relation to economic and social progress. If it is found that such a case study would be feasible, steps should be taken by the U.S. National Commission to arrange with UNESCO for the study to be undertaken in this country. The study should be made in a country which has had an active program of public education over a sufficiently long period to provide a real test of the various factors involved. It would be desirable that a similar study be undertaken at the same time in another country also.
Paragraphs 2-7-11. In the third paragraph of page 9 the words "study of the needs of the area" were substituted for the word "exploration".
Paragraphs 127 and 130. It was agreed that the proposal that the U.S. propose that seminars be held in Puerto Rico and Hawaii would not be submitted to UNESCO at this time in order to provide an opportunity for a further exploration of the advisability of this proposal. It was suggested that inquiry should be made about the desirability of holding a seminar on school buildings in Bogota since the Latin American housing center is located there.
Paragraph 231. It was agreed that the discussion on pages 11 and 12 be revised by the Office of Education to point out that although the concept of community development is fully supported by the United States, it seems unnecessary to make repeated references to community development throughout this part of the program.
Paragraph 327. It was agreed that the proposal for a youth conference in the United States should be explored further before a recommendation is made by the Interdepartmental Committee. The proposal will, accordingly, be considered at a later Interdepartmental Committee on the basis of a separate paper to be prepared on this subject.
Attendance at meeting:
Department of Health, Education and Welfare
Miss Goodykoontz
Mrs. Tandler
Department of State
Mr. Simsarian - OES
Mr. John McAfee - URS
Mr. Guy Lee - URS
Mr. Colligan - P
Miss Jean Dulaney - P/CPC
Department of Agriculture
Mr. Cannon C. Hearne
Mr. Joseph L. Matthews
Department of Labor
Mr. Arnold Zempel
USIA
Miss Margaret Williams
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OECD Records Management and Archives Service / Service des archives de l'OECDE
Box ID / No de boîte archive 36478
Transfer ID / No de transfert SGE/CDC(2002)02
Provenance SGCL99
File No / Rubrique du plan de classement ITL-1
Folder ID / No de chemise 218062
Start date / Date de début 01-Jan-70
End date / Date de fin 31-Dec-70
Folder type / Type de chemise CHE
Folder comment / Titre de la chemise
Rome Club
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Dear Dr. van Lomp,
This is just a very short note to thank you for having listened so patiently and with so much by my side to our somewhat rambling exposure regarding the Club of Home project. I am also most grateful for your kindness in including me in the luncheon which was both delicious and interesting.
I hope that I shall have the pleasure of seeing you age in the not too old / not future years.
Ha van Lomp
TELEFOON 01731-9045
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Rome, March 27, 1970
DAP/amp
Dr Emile van Lennep
Secretary General,
OECD
2, rue André-Pascal
Paris XVI, France.
My dear Dr van Lennep:
My delay in writing to thank you for your invitation at the discussion and lunch last Wednesday is due to my absences from Rome. All my colleagues and I were greatly interested in the exchange of views we had with you and Mr Eldin on the OECD study of the problems of modern society, and on The Club of Rome posture and its planned project on the 'global problemique'.
In carrying out this project, called 'The Predicament of Mankind' and of which we have given you a draft prospectus, we will try to prove that, or ascertain whether, we can (a) reach a much better understanding of the dynamic interplay of situations and problems with which world society is presently beset, and (b) evolve descriptive and operational methodologies consonant with this global vision of today's problem complex, which decision-making centers (be they national, multinational, regional, sectoral or intersectoral) must acquire to define policies in keeping with the realities of the world in which we live. We are very grateful for the moral support you have offered to give us in our efforts and for the suggestions and data that the OECD offices can give us according to your directives in order to make it more successful or significant.
In our turn, if the work The Club of Rome will be carrying out could be relevant to your studies or reflections, we will be extremely pleased to share with you whatever findings or results emerge as our project unfolds. As you have kindly confirmed your authorization to Dr Alexander King to continue his activity in our midst, he can be our logical 'trait d'union', although you may be assured that all of us will be glad to consider ourselves at your disposal.
Warm personal regards,
Sincerely yours,
Aurelio Peccet
Secretariat
• Rome Via Pallengo 36, 00185 Rome • phone 480041 • telex Tecnol 61407 • cables Romslub
Objectives
• Geneva via Istambul Battelle 1 rue de Druc, 122 Carrouge, Grenze • phone 423250 • telex Batel 23472 • cables Battelle
• Tokyo via Japan Techsoe Economics Society, Missuda Building 43 Idabushi, 2 Chome, Chiyoda, Tokyo • phone 203250
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Dear Sir,
With reference to my letter of 18th June 1963, I would like to remind you that the meeting of the Joint Advisory Group (Committee for Scientific Research and Committee for Scientific and Technical Personnel) will be held on Monday 28th October 1963 at the Château de la Muette, 2 rue André Pascal, Paris 16ème with the following agenda:
a) scope and purpose of sector reviews [SR(63)30/STP(63)32]
b) progress report on sector reviews (DAS/BS(63)19)
c) other business
I very much hope that you will be able to attend this meeting.
Yours sincerely,
A.H. Delsemme
Head of Basic Studies Division
cc: Members of the Committee for Scientific Research and of the Committee for Scientific and Technical Personnel; National Delegations.
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of the output -- i.e., the goal. These shifts, or renewals, in understanding may change the perception of the Club of Rome concerning the problematique and must therefore be viewed as a source of new objectives as well as of new means -- i.e., of new controlled inputs.*
All these feedbacks whether taken singly or in combination will affect the nature of the output and possibly alter it.
Recognition of these processes provides us with a preliminary planning construct which is outlined on the next page (Fig. 3).
Up to this point we have dealt mainly with the controlled inputs side of the overall work plan. In the following pages we shall deal with questions concerning uncontrolled inputs.
* Moreover if such results are very important and dramatic (which is unlikely) they will also create a feedback loop into the situation and generate new events.
But because the probability of this is very low it need not be considered presently. (That is the reason for that loop being shown in broken lines in the figure on the next page.)
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ANNEX IV
THE WORK GROUP
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TABLE IV
GENERIC METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES
PHASES OF PROJECT
PHACULTURAL-PRESCRIPTIVE DESCRIPTIVE
ANALYTIC
SYNTHESIZING
EVALUATIVE
NORMATIVE Value-Base Definition
Future Image Delineation (Normative Porecasts)
STRATEGIC Identification of Events
Future Image Delineation (Logical Porecasts)
Detective/Means Level Setting
Future Image Delineation (Critical Future)
Policy Implications
Linguistic Delimitation of "ecological" "balance"
IELPHI
Horizontal Relevance Tree Techn. as applied to CCP's
Systemic Separlosebased on CCP's
CONTINUAL Critical Problems
IELPHI ou CCP's
Input/Output Analysis
Game Theory
Cybernetic Planning
Scenarios
Critical Event Network
System Analysis
Trade-off Analyses
Game Theory
System Design
OPERATIONAL Functional Character, of Events
Interactive Character, of Events
Model of Problems
Empirical Causality Matrices
Empirical Causility Matrices Cross Impact Analysis
Graph Theory
Graph Theory
Feedback Theory
Morphological Analysis
System Description
Mathematical Topology
System Descriptor
Structural Model
Analytic Comparison with Value-Base Definition
Systems Analysis
Systems Analysis
Molecular Process Analysis
Molar Process Analysis
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THE CLUB OF ROME
THE PREDICAMENT OF MANKIND
Quest for Structured Responses to Growing World-wide Complexities and Uncertainties
A PROPOSAL
1970
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
SECTION ONE: Work Statement & Proposal (green pages) 1
I. INTRODUCTORY 2
II. THE CLUB OF ROME 8
III. THE PROBLEMATIQUE: AN OVERVIEW OF THE SITUATION 12
IV. THE PROPOSAL 28
SECTION TWO: Conceptual Frame & Work Procedures (white pages) 36
I. INTRODUCTION: THE CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK 37
II. TENTATIVE PLANNING CONSTRUCT 39
III. GENERAL COMMENTS ON METHODOLOGY 55
IV. MODEL OF WORK PROCESS AS PRESENTLY ENVISAGED 59
SECTION THREE: Annexes (pink pages) 63
ANNEX I: THE CLUB OF ROME 64
ANNEX II: THE IDEA OF A WORLD FORUM 68
ANNEX III:THE EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE 72
ANNEX IV: THE WORK GROUP 74
ANNEX V: CONSULTANTS 76
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THE CLUB OF ROME
THE PREDICAMENT OF MANKIND
WORK STATEMENT AND PROPOSAL
1. INTRODUCTION
As in every epoch of its existence, mankind today finds itself in a particular "situation". And as always this situation is created and nurtured by those who live amid the myriad events that comprise it -- events that now are in the process of tumultuous and ever accelerating change, events that now increasingly and even violently clash with one another. In some deep sense our situation compels us to animate and perpetuate it almost blindly, and thus to move toward a future whose shape or quality we do not comprehend, whose surprises we have not succeeded in reducing to a rational frame of ideas, whose complexities we are not in the least sure of being able to control.
There are, however, a few basic perceptions that possess both wide currency and increasing persuasiveness, by means of which people in many different walks of life have begun to apprehend the nature of this situation. It is thanks to such perceptions that we have come to recognize the forces that hold us in their
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grip as arising from what we have long recognized as being the very source of our power and achievement -- at least in those countries where the industrial mode of life has flourished and broken the back of age-old scarcities.
The source of our power lies in the extraordinary technological capital we have succeeded in accumulating and in propagating, and the all-pervasive analytic or positivistic methodologies which by shaping our minds as well as our sensibilities, have enabled us to do what we have done. Yet our achievement has, in some unforeseen (perhaps unforseeable) manner, failed to satisfy those other requirements that would have permitted us to evolve in ways which, for want of a better word, we shall henceforth call "balanced." It has failed to provide us with an ethos, a morality, ideals, institutions, a vision of man and of mankind and a politics which are in consonance with the way of life that has evolved as the expression of our success. Worse, it has failed to give us a global view from which we could begin to conceive the ethos, morality, ideals, institutions, and policies requisite to an interdependent world -- this, despite the fact that the dynamics of our technologies and of our positivistic outlooks are global in their impacts, their consequences, their endless profusion and, more importantly, in the promises they proclaim and in the promises they imply.
This failure is often regarded as having created a number of separate and discrete problems capable of being overcome by the kind of analytic solutions our intellectual tradition can so readily generate. However, the experience of the past twenty or thirty years has shown with remarkable clarity that the issues which confront us in the immediate present, as well as their undecipherable consequences over time, may not too easily yield to the methods
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we have employed with such success in the bending of nature to our will. Such apparent resistance could be attributable to many things, none of which must be pre-judged, but about which certain assumptions might be made. It could be due, for instance, to the magnification of the problems we must grapple with -- that is, to the fact that almost all of them are global in scope, whereas the socio-political arrangements we have created are ill-equipped for dealing with issues that fall outside their strictly established jurisdictions. It could be due to heightened yet often obscure interactivity among phenomena, whereas our manner of solving problems owes its strength and efficiency to the identification of rather clear and direct lines of causality. It may be due to rapid rates of change, especially in the technological sector, whereas our institutions, outlooks and minds are geared by long-time habit to beliefs in slow unfolding and permanence -- beliefs which have sustained certain relatively stable concepts of polity, of social order and of intellectual orderliness. In brief, whatever it is due to, the conjuncture of events that surrounds us is to all evidence world-wide, complex, dynamic, and dangerous.
Moreover such a situation can be seen as a new, or novel, experience, for in our long commitment to stability and continuity we have hitherto succeeded more or less, in steering our social evolution toward the known and in avoiding that which, for being unknown, was also uncertain and, therefore, frightening.
Because of the dissonances that inhere in our situation we find that our current attitudes toward life and issues are tending to become rigidly polarized and in consequence, hesitant to the point of paralysis. On the one hand, we take refuge in the comforts
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of that inertia we believe is going to help us preserve all the attributes of what we have come to call and to accept as "civilization". On the other hand, we tend to seek escape in iconoclastic or utopian futurisms whose feasibility and intellectual worth we know to be questionable, but in whose visions of a wholly new human order we sometimes find solace as well as some fleeting release.
These contradictory attitudes toward uncertainty are old. However, it bears repeating that the uncertainty, as we experience it today, is new -- both in its dimensions and in its extraordinarily complex dynamics and structure. From this fundamental mismatch between the situation, that we still insist on describing as a set of "problems," and our mental and emotional attitudes, which we continue to feel might give birth to "solutions," we can already make the assumption that our notion of problem is wholly insufficient for us to face whatever it is that our situation proposes both to our intellect and to our conscience. At the same time our notions of solution are equally insufficient to enable us to define those outcomes that could or might result in novel ways of coping with our predicament -- namely, of organizing our vision at a higher level where new approaches and attitudes might begin to acquire a degree of immediate relevance.
It is the aim of this particular project of the Club of Rome to turn the above assumption into a positive statement, by trying to cognize and investigate the all-pervasive problematique which is built into our situation, through some new leap of inventiveness. Success in an attempt of this nature would enlarge and deepen both our sensibility and our understanding and open the way for certain new attitudes that eventually might become reflected, concretely and operationally, at those levels of decision making where policy is formulated.
types or crisis have been singled out whose flash-points could now be seen as clustered well within the decade of the 1970's. Thus, effectivity margins that apply to general problem classes such as large-scale destruction or change, widespread tensions, continuous and growing distress, tension producing responsive change, etc., are increasingly conceived as probably falling within a 1-7 year range (nuclear escalation, 1-5 years at the outset; institutional insufficiencies, 3-5 years; participatory impatience which is one of the main factors feeding the alienation of our youth, 3-4 years; widening famine, 5-7 years; pollution, housing, education, etc., 3-7 years). These random instances serve to show that if something is to be done it needs to be done now -- for otherwise we might be confronted by that ultimate experience: N-E-V-E-R.
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Such then is the predicament of mankind, and the object of this document is to describe, in terms that are perforce still somewhat cursory, what can be done now, the issues that must be addressed, the organization of the needed effort, its scope and its program, the methods of investigation that appear pertinent and the outcomes which, a priori, one might hope for.
The document is divided into three parts. The present first section contains an overall description of the above points. The second section is an attempt to discuss in a very general way some of the methods of approach and organization that could be considered at this stage as possibly being useful in an undertaking of this kind. The last section consists of various clarificatory annexes describing, among other things, the aims, plans, and general philosophy of the Club of Rome. A few comments on these aims, which directly relate to the present project, follow.
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II. THE CLUB OF ROME
The Club of Rome is an informal, non political, multinational group of scientists, intellectuals, educators, and business leaders deeply concerned with the situation just sketched, who among them have decided to face the issues that confront mankind in any way which offers the hope of teaching a new level of understanding and therefore of successful action.
The members of this group have access to considerable sources of information and knowledge. Acting jointly, they believe that they can mobilize enough intellectual and financial support to try to undertake the present project that should be viewed, not as another research study, but as an effort at intellectual breakthrough that promises a fresh vision and approach. It is their belief that only an effort which strives to go beyond "conventional wisdom" and methodological orthodoxy can allow us to perceive the complex dimensions of the problématique of our age, and thus set the stage for the formulation and development of the long-term options and alternative outlooks needed for policy-making. They are further convinced that a group of private persons who while concerned are nevertheless free from the responsibility of day-to-day political decision -- and who, as individuals, have no political ambition except the good of mankind and its survival -- can contribute in this way to the work of those who are responsible for leadership and action.
With reference to the project under consideration, the major objectives of the Club of Rome are:
1) To examine, as systematically as possible, the nature and configuration of the profound imbalances that define
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today's problematique throughout the world, and to attempt to determine the dynamics of the interactions which seemingly exacerbate the situation as a whole.
2) To develop an initial, coarse-grain, "model" or models of this dynamic situation in the expectation that such models will reveal both those systemic components that are most critical and those interactions that are most generally dangerous for the future.
3) To construct a "normative" overview from the foregoing models and to clarify the action implications -- i.e., the political, social, economic, technological, institutional, etc., consequences -- that such an overview might entail and substantiate.
4) To bring everything that has been learnt as a result of this initial effort, to the attention of those in political authority, in the hope that such findings might stimulate the conception of new lines of policy that would be effective in coping with our situation's overall dynamics and its world-wide dimensions.
5) To persuade governments to convene a World Forum,* with whose consent, support, and encouragement an intensive dialogue concerning the findings of the project would be initiated to the end that a much larger and deeper effort could be undertaken. Such an effort would aim at developing the needed operational "macro-models" conducive to endeavors at integrated policy-planning and to the development of new institutions within whose frame of competence such work could be carried out.
*For further information regarding this point, please see Annex II in the last section of this document.
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These objectives have been set with the full knowledge that many governments and international organizations are beginning to recognize the dangers with which our present situation is fraught. Thus on the international level bodies such as NATO or OECD are now undertaking detailed work on many individual issues, while the United Nations is planning a world conference on the problems of the "Environment" in 1972. These moves are welcome and should add greatly to our recognition and understanding of the grave matters that are facing the whole of mankind. Nevertheless, the prime difference between these approaches and the one being proposed by the Club of Rome must be noted. It resides in the fact that most current efforts are directed toward single or parallel problems and do not attempt any consistent and comprehensive study of the totality of the problematic events that add up to our world system; nor do they address themselves to the areas of dynamic interaction or of overall consequences of these events; nor, for that matter, are they explicitly concerned with questions of institutional change, development, and invention which might be necessary to cope with what is confronting us.
The approach adopted by the Club of Rome, on the other hand, derives from the threefold hypothesis:
a) that the predicament we seek to understand is systemic in character; and that the boundaries of the system encompass the entire planet;
b) that the real problematique which inheres in the situation has now transcended discrete categories of events -- e.g., overpopulation, malnutrition, poverty, pollution, etc. -- and arises from confused and obscure consequence-patterns generated by the interactions of such categories of events;
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c) that any desirable, or even acceptable, resolution of the problem will in all probability entail, at least as outcomes to be seriously considered, fundamental changes in our current social and institutional structures, for the simple reason that these structures were not established to operate in so complex and dynamic a situation as the one in which we find ourselves.
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THE PROBLEMATIQUE:
AN OVERVIEW OF THE SITUATION
1. THE IDEA OF "PROBLEMATIQUE"
It is in the nature of our languages, hence of our manner of perceiving reality, to see and call the dissonant elements in a situation, "problems".
Similarly, we proceed from the belief that problems have "solutions" -- although we may not necessarily discover these in the case of every problem we encounter. This peculiarity of our perception causes us to view difficulties as things that are clearly defined and discrete in themselves. It also leads us to believe that to solve a problem it is sufficient to observe and manipulate it in its own terms by applying an external problem-solving technique to it.
Although it is true that there are certain problems (mostly in the field of technology and engineering) that can be dealt with in this way, it is also becoming quite evident that such problems are no longer the most important ones with which we must deal.
When we consider the truly critical issues of our time such as environmental deterioration, poverty, endemic ill-health, urban blight, criminality, etc., we find it virtually impossible to view them as problems that exist in isolation -- or, as problems capable of being solved in their own terms. For even the most cursory examination will at least reveal the more obvious (though not necessarily the most important) links between problems. Where endemic ill-health exists, poverty cannot easily be divorced from it, or vice versa. Certain kinds of criminal behavior often,
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though not always, seem to be related to poverty or slum living conditions. Furthermore, if we try to solve any such problems exclusively in their own terms we quickly discover that what we take to be the solution of one category of problem may itself generate problems of another category (the reduction of death rates in developing areas and the resultant increase in poverty, public unrest, overpopulation, etc., is a good example of this single avenue approach).
Another unfortunate consequence of the preference we display toward orthodox problem-solving is the misapplication of effort and energy. Thus many agronomists devote a great deal of ingenuity toward increasing the yield per acre of our crops without seeming to realize that the particular solution called "agriculture" may possibly no longer represent the single, feasible resolution of the problems clustered under words such as "hunger" or "malnutrition" when the latter are considered in their world-wide dimensions. It seems reasonable, therefore, to postulate that the fragmentation of reality into closed and well-bounded problems creates a new problem whose solution is clearly beyond the scope of the concepts we customarily employ. It is this generalized meta-problem (or meta-system of problems) which we have called and shall continue to call the "problématique" that inheres in our situation.
2. TOWARD A GENERALIZED RATIONALE
The fragmentation of reality caused by our conceptual and linguistic make up notwithstanding, it is still necessary to talk about the situation and to communicate ideas concerning it. Since we have no new language for doing this, we can only approach the notion of the problématique in terms that are familiar to us. We
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can break down the problemique into its major components and we can list such components, both for purposes of their tentative identification and of creating a referential base, under the title of Continuous Critical Problem. The listing that follows represents a general statement of the most commonly recognized problems of this sort.
CONTINUOUS CRITICAL PROBLEMS:
AN ILLUSTRATIVE LIST
1. Explosive population growth with consequent escalation of social, economic, and other problems.
2. Widespread poverty throughout the world.
3. Increase in the production, destructive capacity, and accessibility of all weapons of war.
4. Uncontrolled urban spread.
5. Generalized and growing malnutrition.
6. Persistence of widespread illiteracy.
7. Expanding mechanization and bureaucratization of almost all human activity.
8. Growing inequalities in the distribution of wealth throughout the world.
9. Insufficient and irrationally organized medical care.
10. Hardening discrimination against minorities.
11. Hardening prejudices against differing cultures.
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12. Affluence and its unknown consequences.
13. Anachronistic and irrelevant education.
14. Generalized environmental deterioration.
15. Generalized lack of agreed-on alternatives to present trends.
16. Widespread failure to stimulate man's creative capacity to confront the future.
17. Continuing deterioration of inner-cities or slums.
18. Growing irrelevance of traditional values and continuing failure to evolve new value systems.
19. Inadequate shelter and transportation.
20. Obsolete and discriminatory income distribution system(s).
21. Accelerating wastage and exhaustion of natural resources.
22. Growing environmental pollution.
23. Generalized alienation of youth.
24. Major disturbances of the world's physical ecology.
25. Generally inadequate and obsolete institutional arrangements.
26. Limited understanding of what is "feasible" in the way of corrective measures.
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27. Unbalanced population distribution.
28. Ideological fragmentation and semantic barriers to communication between individuals, groups, and nations.
29. Increasing a-social and anti-social behavior and consequent rise in criminality.
30. Inadequate and obsolete law enforcement and correctional practices.
31. Widespread unemployment and generalized under-employment.
32. Spreading "discontent" throughout most classes of society.
33. Polarization of military power and psychological impacts of the policy of deterrence.
34. Fast obsolescing political structures and processes.
35. Irrational agricultural practices.
36. Irresponsible use of pesticides, chemical additives, insufficiently tested drugs, fertilizers, etc.
37. Growing use of distorted information to influence and manipulate people.
38. Fragmented international monetary system.
39. Growing technological gaps and lags between developed and developing areas.
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40. New modes of localized warfare.
41. Inadequate participation of people at large in public decisions.
42. Unimaginative conceptions of world-order and of the rule of law.
43. Irrational distribution of industry supported by policies that will strengthen the current patterns.
44. Growing tendency to be satisfied with technological solutions for every kind of problem.
45. Obsolete system of world trade.
46. Ill-conceived use of international agencies for national or sectoral ends.
47. Insufficient authority of international agencies.
48. Irrational practices in resource investment.
49. Insufficient understanding of Continuous Critical Problems, of their nature, their interactions and of the future consequences both they and current solutions to them are generating.*
* These Continuous Critical Problems are not listed or grouped in any particular order; nor is the list to be regarded as complete.
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It should be evident that these Continuous Critical Problems are meant merely to serve as general labels under each of which entire trees or clusters of issues that appear analogous, can be classified. Further, neither their rate of occurrence nor their intensity is uniform throughout the world. Therefore, the causality structure that underlies such a listing is obviously of extreme complexity and actually impossible fully to ascertain through mere observation for, even on direct empirical evidence, it is clear that the true list must be many times larger than what we have given.
However, even from this limited listing we begin to sense that these large problem-areas are system-wide, interdependent, interactive and intersensitive; that they transcend national frontiers, or even regional boundaries; and that they are seemingly immune to linear or sequential resolution.
This, in turn, suggests that when the problem-trees have grown to world-wide proportions their branches intertwine -- or, if we use the image of clusters, we can say that the clusters overlap. Such areas of overlap then create new problem-areas whose description (hence our understanding of them) escapes the boundaries of the original taxonomy. Therefore, the line of approach to be taken must first aim at clarifying the systemic character of the problem-areas, and secondly, must re-state them in a way that will make their most critical synergies visible.
The five frames that will be found on the following two pages are an attempt to give a graphic portrayal of this dynamic and interactive growth of the problem-matique. In each of the frames the problem-areas are symbolized by differently shaped shaded spaces. Fig.1 merely represents an arbitrary and random positioning of such problem-areas, with the aim of describing a situation wherein the example, reveal the morphology of the situation as resembling what is shown in Fig.5 -- namely, as having a composite dynamic core, and differing intensities of interfaces and relationships, all of which must be identified and organized into a unified frame of perception and understanding.
Such an approach -- which can only incompletely be communicated in two-dimensional drawings -- is clearly needed and clearly
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Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
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Figure 4
Figure 5
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important for it now appears possible to surmise that attempts at understanding the situation in terms of isolated problems have gone almost as far as they can. If this be true, then, greater effort along the same lines should teach us but little that is new about the phenomena which make up the issues, and hardly anything at all about the living, changing, dynamic texture of the interconnections that actually create a "situation".
If we are to learn something new it would appear, therefore, that we need to create one or more situational models which might reveal -- with reference to, but almost independently from, the problem-clusters:
1. the identity of the most critical and sensitive components of the situation;
2. the main or major interactions that exist among the various variables contained in the situation;
3. the behavior of the main variables in relation to changes within the situation;
4. the time-dependent ordering of the chief possible outcomes and of their present consequences for action;
5. the presently invisible critical connections that operate systemically within the present situation and that situation's future configuration;
6. the positive and negative synergies that must exist among various alternative consequences and options.
Factors such as the above can be explored because, by means of modelling the situation correctly, it becomes feasible (1) to
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penetrate the areas of interdependence among problems and clusters of problems; (2) to manipulate the models artificially -- so as to observe the behavior of the situation's components under differently structured configurations. After the modelling work has been completed it should be possible to elaborate suggestions for curative or corrective action that might prove helpful in developing policies. However, to be taken, all these steps require that a ground be established upon which the entire modelling effort can be made to rest. Such a ground is what we shall refer to as the "value-base."
3. THE VALUE-BASE
The primary aim of modelling is to give the subject a shape, a structure, a configuration that is determined by an objective which, itself, is external to the subject. Hence the clarifications or insights that might be obtained from a successful modelling effort are never reached in terms of the subject (i.e., a problem or a situation) but in terms of the external objective to satisfy which the modelling was undertaken in the first place. Such an objective always entails a value, and the setting of it must therefore create the particular value-base that gives meaning and direction to the whole endeavor.
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A value-base explicitly stipulates certain assumptions about what is "good" and what "bad." In the past it was not always necessary to make such a stipulation because a problem could be recognized clearly and singularly as a problem and therefore fell automatically into a negative value category. This is not the case nowadays when we must deal with the problématique of a whole world-wide situation. In so extended and complex a problem-area the value premisses reveal themselves as being so confused that it becomes imperative to define a value-base that will govern the work from the very outset.
The value-base to be selected must satisfy certain fundamental criteria. First, it must qualify as a heuristic tool-concept that can be used throughout the study. Secondly, it must be consonant with the initial perceptions and beliefs that have triggered the work. Thirdly, it must support, and in some sense justify, the outcomes that are expected from the effort. The second and third criteria have already been elaborated throughout the preceding pages; nevertheless, it might bear repeating here that the ground of presuppositions from which we shall start is the belief, backed by considerable empirical evidence, that there are strong interactions among the events which create our situation and that, while it is impossible fully to isolate the former, it should be feasible to identify, through modeling, some critical aspects of their temporal and spatial morphology. And, moreover, that such identification might also permit us to anticipate a number of dissonances which may not exist at present, but whose developing conjuncture could
* This manner of proceeding is actually implicit whenever we say that something represents a "problem". When we call occurrences such as hunger, or over-population, or lack of education, "problems" we are in fact defining them in this way because according to our value system they represent a state that is bad, in comparison to an alternative possible state -- which we call "solution" -- that we accept as being good.
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well be forming those new issues and problems which will define our future.
It is on this ground of perceived fact and belief that we must now evolve the value-base of the work, as a heuristic tool-concept which will satisfy the first criterion stated above. This can be done with reference to the nature of the problematique itself, that is, with reference to the most general attributes we find in those component elements of our situation that we have called Continuous Critical Problems. When we review these (even superficially) we find that all of them are problems in relation to something else -- either other problem-clusters or a particular state of the system in terms of which we look at them, or values we take for granted because they are embedded in our current culture. Thus, for example, uncontrolled population growth is a problem when viewed in relation to a particular state of the environment that we are now experiencing. It was not a problem when we experienced the environment differently; namely, in a different state of the overall system. Such examples can be multiplied, and if they are we shall notice that in every instance the problematic element derives from an imbalance that affects the relationships existing among situational components.
This observation cannot but remind us directly that imbalance is a state which defines the pathology of an "ecological" system, which, in fact, our situation, seen in its entirety, represents.
Ecology, as one hardly needs to note, is the study of the equilibria and the dynamics of "populations" of living entities within given environments. The notion can be extended and generalized to comprise the equilibria and the dynamics of all entities, for every dimension of contemporary experience is a definable
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population of facts and concepts: biological, physiological, physical, psychological, ethical, religious, technological, economic, political, national, international, communal, attitudinal, intellectual, institutional,...; the full list is no doubt finite but very long indeed. It covers everything and event among which relations of mutual determination, complementarity or competitiveness can be established.
Hence if we extend, as is increasingly being done nowadays, the definition of ecology to comprise all the dimensions of occurrence in our world-wide environments it becomes possible to say that we are confronted with a problematique which is ecosystemic in character. The normative statement that describes the value-content of any ecosystem is "ecological balance." Consequently it is the idea of ecological balance that can, and will, be taken as the underlying value-base of the study; for in the terms dictated by our situation the "good" is self-evidently and most generally capable of being defined as the re-establishment of that many-dimensional dynamic balance that seems to have been lost in the modern world.
Given the general conditions of this study, such a value-base should make it possible to develop models and attain insights that have global relevance, and should further open the way for the integration of the models into one primary synthesis capable of providing ideas that, subsequently, can be made actionable in terms of concrete policies, of new structures, and new institutions.
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4. CONCLUSION
The points that have just been touched upon amount to saying that apart from the reasons of urgency for which the study is being recommended its only a priori hypotheses arise from the recognition of the problematique as possessing worldwide dimensions and therefore systemic characteristics, and that the functional attributes of today's world system necessarily involve normative elements which, being planet-wide, transcend sectoral, political, or regional differences; and the recognition that our current methods of description as well as our social and institutional structures are not designed to operate effectively in a system which is world-wide.
It should be repeated in order to emphasize the point, if for no other reason, that the approach briefly described above is non-political be it in motivation, in methodology, or in its initial results. Its aim is to create new clarificatory models of the known and already described components of our complex problematic situation so that the subsequent activity of policy formulation may be facilitated or even made possible. It represents a step forward in relation to the present state of affairs, inasmuch as the current ways of describing our situation do not allow of any rational or effective attempt to grapple with the fundamental political considerations to which all insights and conclusions must ultimately be reduced.
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IV. THE PROPOSAL
The effort as a whole would be divided into two distinct steps:
First: The "project" as described herein, undertaken by the Club of Rome and dealing with the empirical aspects of the situation, its morphology and the interrelationships that operate among its components. This would be the rough modelling phase;
Second: A subsequent and more ambitious phase, hopefully to be undertaken by the World Forum, dealing with the study of the critical aggregations revealed by the initial model and would aim at the discovery of alternative means of interpreting and resolving interface imbalances and to the identification of various options that are suggestive of coordinated policies.
1. SCOPE
At the present juncture, the scope of the project (first step) is seen as follows:
- to define criteria for identifying imbalances of a global nature especially with reference to their future evolution;
- to attempt a qualitative and quantitative delineation of the interactions that appear critically synergistic within the situation created by these imbalances;
- to establish a tentative morphology of problem interfaces and interactions;
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- to identify and evaluate the main trends of research currently being undertaken with reference to this type of problem, to determine the degree to which such research can contribute to the investigation of the overall problemique;
- to outline programmes, initial methods of approach tasks and responsibilities pertaining to the investigation as a whole;
- to attempt to take the first steps necessary for the development of a dynamic computerized model by means of which the entire structure, rather than the mere parameters, of the situation can be manipulated, so that new configurations of the problématique may be revealed and experimented with.
2. PROGRAM
The governing statement concerning the project as a whole is that its aim is not research in the traditional sense, but "invention."
This should be understood to mean that what is expected from the effort are new insights and approaches rather than the further and deeper elaboration of already known facts. The latter will be used in their present state of elaboration as the substantive material upon which the work will bear -- however, the expectation that animates the work itself concerns the meaning which all these facts, in their systemic nature and system-wide impacts, have for the future of mankind.
Hence it is necessary to interpret the following program in the light of the above statement of purpose.
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a) Investigation
This initial attempt should define some of the main empirical dimensions of the problematique, the way it is presently sensed and perceived.
The sources from which this information will be obtained are international agencies, research institutions, universities, special study groups, foundations, unions, associations, youth groups, and various selected interest groups, etc.
Existing data banks of national or international scope dealing with critical world problems, will be located and used insofar as possible.
Nevertheless in order to avoid sliding into some form of taxonomic research activity the project will for a start concern itself mainly with the basic grouping of problematic issues that are most widely known. These were listed earlier in this document under the heading of Continuous Critical Problems.
Each of the Continuous Critical Problems that were named is today the object of more or less deep research in many organizations and in many countries. This research is generally directed toward the problems themselves and not toward their interrelations--an aspect to which particular emphasis is to be given in the proposed effort. A comprehensive survey of this ongoing research must necessarily be made in order to identify capabilities, lags, and gaps in the body of understanding and knowledge now available, and to make use of any pertinent information it affords us.
Therefore the investigatory phase will attempt primarily at infusing the Continuous Critical Problems with as great an operational meaning as feasible; to enlarge or reduce or refine the
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initial listing by means of trees and clusters; to establish definitions that are more precise especially in relation to the value-base of ecological balance.
b) System Description
The investigatory part of the work should lead to, or be accompanied by, the design of the system which represents the problemique in its world-wide generality.
The organization of such a system must be so conceived as to reveal:
- the structure of the dominant interrelationships among systemic components.
- the nature and present intensity of the interactive relationships; the nature and intensity of the "feedback" and "feedforward" effects; the general (obvious) causality patterns into which the interactions can be seen to fall.
- the dynamic of the interactions from which some idea of the system's future states can be sensed or deduced.
- the controlling elements of the system as it is today, and how this order is likely to change as the system evolves in time.
- the component linkages that appear to be the most immediately critical.
- the functional morphology of the linkages: degrees of rigidity, flexibility, equilibrium, stability -- in the rates and the levels of the system of interactions.
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The final configuration of situational components to emerge from the proposed study will therefore have a spatial and temporal morphology that embodies the dynamic process that animates critical world problems, when that process is set in the context of a general value framework of ecological balance.
The project will not attempt a forecast of how problems will be apprehended in the future, although the final shape of the system will depend on the integration of alternative perceptions of the future with perceptions that have currency today.
c) Report
The project should result in either one or several reports containing the synthesis of the work conducted, interpreting the new system of world-wide critical interconnections, the key problem-clusters that should be given particular attention, and the methods to be used in their further investigation.
d) Outcome
The reports, by giving a clearer picture of the nature of the problematic interactions, of their relative importance and their dynamic configurations, should be of use as a preliminary indication of possible new and viable directions in the field of policy-making.
Once this initial aim is attained it is the hope of the Club of Rome to have its findings reinterpreted in depth by the kind of instrumentality that was referred to earlier as the World Forum. Such reinterpretation would allow the results of the project to be fitted into the framework of different value systems and molded into new attitudes and outlooks at a higher level of political endeavor where new structures and institutions can be designed.
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However, to be reached, these ends require means that are both more ambitious and more sophisticated than those to be used in the project -- e.g., policy analyses and design, trade-off calculations, deontic logic applications, the construction of alternative systems, long-term dynamic simulations with multiple variables, etc.
Through such means a normative as well as an empirical delineation of the future states of the world system might be obtained together with the details of the new framework of integrated policies, institutions, and organizations that are necessary to render such a new world system operational.
e) Organization
The overall organization of the project is described below in its relationship to the envisaged structure of the Club of Rome.
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A. The aims of the Club of Rome have already been noted in relation to the project being considered here.
Its general objectives and constitution are described in Section Three (Annex I).
B. The project falls directly under the cognizance of the Executive Committee of the Club of Rome. During the latter's formative stage an Executive Committee has been formed ad hoc whose membership will be found in Section Three (Annex III).
C. The Executive Committee has asked the Institut Battelle at Geneva to provide administrative support and act as managing agency for the project. This request having received favorable response from the Battelle management, it was decided that Battelle's Geneva Centre de Recherche would be providing hospitality and facilities for the Work Group that will be engaged in carrying out the project.
D. The Executive Committee has asked Prof. Hasan Ozbekhan to undertake the overall direction of the project and the operational responsibility for the Work Group.
Currently, the Work Group itself is visualized as consisting of some ten senior scientists from various national backgrounds, supported by a team of junior researchers. Further details concerning the Work Group will be found in Section Three (Annex IV).
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E. The aid of a number of Consultants will be solicited to support the Director of the project. These consultants should be authorities in various fields that pertain to the project in its generality.
The principal role of the consultants will be to offer new ideas and substantive verification from the viewpoint of disciplinary approaches whenever necessary.
A general idea of the planned competence of this consulting group will be found in Section Three (Annex V).
3. COST AND DURATION
It is expected that the project as described can be realized within a budget of $900,000 and that its duration would be approximately of 15 months. Therefore if the work can be started sometime during the summer of 1970 it should be completed by the end of 1971.
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SECTION TWO
CONCEPTUAL FRAME AND WORK PROCEDURES
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CONCEPTUAL FRAME AND WORK PROCEDURES
INTRODUCTION
1. THE CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK
The purpose of the present section is to provide an overall impression of how the work described heretofore might be conducted, and to discuss insofar as is possible at this early stage some methods and techniques of approach that are tentatively being considered.
No firm and unequivocal commitment to a given methodology can be made at this time. The problematique -- i.e., the subject to be addressed -- that was outlined is extremely complex and must be approached by way of a unifying framework of concepts that will afford it a solid methodological basis. The chosen approach itself needs in some sense to be an invention closely and specifically tailored to fit the needs of the subject.
Viewed in this light, it becomes evident that the work must be conducted not merely as if it were a straightforward investigation into known facts but rather as an effort (1) to uncover new meanings and consequence-patterns that inhere in dynamic combinations of such facts, and (2) to shape such meanings and consequence-patterns into new, more revealing configurations.
To do this we need to meld together two fundamental, but different, logical approaches:
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1) a hypothetical-deductive system that provides us with the tool concepts necessary to penetrate and manipulate the facts that make up the situation surrounding us;
2) a cybernetic system by means of which we can create alternative configurations of our findings, both so as to make the latter clearer and to see the various behaviors of newly defined consequences within different time frames.
This is to say that we must on the one hand build an axiomatic, and on the other hand a plan.
Through the melding of these two approaches, it should be feasible to examine our world-wide situation and to develop some ideas about how it can, or ought to be changed, to accord with the value-base of "ecological balance" that we have chosen as the ground of our reasoning.
We should note moreover that to create such a combined system of methods we have to take into consideration the levels of cognition from which the problematique and its components are perceived. Hence the Work Group (and what it represents, namely, the Club of Rome) will enter strongly into the methodological equation because its perceptions will be governing the work.
Having made these basic clarifications we may begin by establishing some procedural assumptions. In doing this we shall alter the order of the above, to basic approaches and begin with a tentative outline of the cybernetic system so that our thoughts can be organized in a logical manner.
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2. TENTATIVE PLANNING CONSTRUCT
A. WORKING ASSUMPTIONS
In our attempt to design an initial and highly tentative planning construct, we must begin by proposing certain definitions that can also be considered as working assumptions.*
| CONCEPTS | DEFINITIONS |
| :--- | :--- |
| PROJECT | Substantive operations undertaken by the Work Group. |
| GOAL | Results expected from the project; i.e., suggestions, clarifications, insights, reports, impacts. |
| OBJECTIVE | Directives concerning the goal that the Work Group receives from the Club of Rome. |
| MEANS | Instrumental inputs that the Work Group receives from or through the Club of Rome, including information techniques, methodologies, ideas, facilities, etc. |
| EVENTS | Subject of the work; i.e., elements or components of the problematique. |
TABLE I
* The ideas that will be found throughout this whole section derive from many sources and represent a synthesis of the thoughts of many authors. Unfortunately neither the nature of the document nor the circumstances in which it was written permit individual recognition with respect to every point made.
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Among the foregoing concepts, the ones listed below are operational variables that enter into the overall framework as follows:
| GOAL | Output |
| :--- | :--- |
| OBJECTIVE | Controlled inputs |
| MEANS | Controlled inputs |
| EVENTS | Uncontrolled inputs |
TABLE II
The most simplified and elementary way of visualizing the relationships that will become established among these elements in the course of the work, is shown (Fig. 1) on the next page.
It is self-evident that the nature as well as the level of the output are entirely dependent on the nature and the level of the relations we can establish and formulate with regard to the inputs that will enter the system of work. Moreover, these relations are likely to give us some indications of the methods of approach which might have to be used. Hence the assumptions we have advanced will now have to be looked into somewhat more closely.
B. CONTROLLED INPUTS
The controlled inputs we have defined are objective and means. The precise operational meaning of these words as well as the
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WORLD SYSTEM
CLUB OF ROME
O M
THE PROJECT
G
O Objectives
M Means G goal
E Events
Fig. 1
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Fig. 2
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manner in which they interact in relation to the goal must be determined.
Here, the first point to be made is that neither objective nor means are fixed nor static concepts. They constantly interact with each other, with the project -- that is, the work-in-progress -- and with the subject of the work, namely, the events.
This interaction need not necessarily alter the direction of the objective (i.e., the nature of the task) or the nature or quantity of the means. But it is very likely to cause changes in the level of goal-attainment.
This is because the time-span of the work envisaged is something in the order of fifteen months and a learning process will set in as soon as it starts. This, in turn, will alter the perceptual make-up of the Working Group. This process can be outlined as shown on the following page (Fig. 2).
There are further reasons, connected with but differing from the learning process, that force us to consider those differences in level that define a relationship of dependency between output and controlled inputs. This introduces two ideas that are fundamental both methodologically and substantively.
These ideas are:
(1) - "Futurity" or the future dimensions of the events that form the problematique to be investigated; and
(2) - "normative analysis" in the light of which the value-base that was chosen -- i.e., ecological balance -- can be made to govern the objective of the work.
The notion of futurity enters into the argument because there are basically two ways of looking at a situation and per-
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ceiving its problematic features. Both are grounded in the idea of "differential". Namely: (a) a situation represents a problématique because some of its characteristics differ from the characteristics of a past situation that the people involved agree to define as non-problematic -- or as "normal"; and, (b) a situation represents a problématique because some of its characteristics differ from the characteristics of a future situation that the people involved agree to define as non-problematic -- or as "ideal".
In either case the first step is to proceed from a general, agreed upon, image. And, in either case, what makes agreement possible is a shaved value-base.
In the project being considered we have started from the assumption that the problématique is both world-wide* and new in it its configuration; therefore it would be impossible to evaluate its differentiating aspects with reference to a past situation. Hence it was dedided to establish differentials with reference to some future state of the world-system of which the defining value-base would be "ecological balance".
To be able to create such an image two things are necessary: (1) an idea or vision of how events will evolve toward a particular selected time-range in the future -- say 1990-2000 -- if the present situation is left to itself or left to elvolve with a minimum of tampering; (2) an idea or vision of how the situation will look in the same future if it is normatively conceived in the light of ecological balance.
It might or might not have been noticed that in the foregoing few paragraphs the whole argument was given a somewhat
* This feature alone would make it impossible to judge it in terms of a shared past value-base.
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new shape merely by elaborating in a very superficial way various points that are embedded both in the facts we must deal with and in the general methodological philosophy we have adopted at least for a start. Thus we have:
1. OUTCOME PARAMETERS : in the sense that the goal must deal with "differentials" between a present state of the system and a future state of the system.
2. INPUT PARAMETERS : in the sense that the objectives and means must be set at such a level so as to permit:
2.1. A forecast of the normal future state of the present situation (logical future).
2.2. An image of the future state as can be imagined in the light of the value-base of ecological balance (normative future).
2.3. Interim states of the objective for judging whether the difference between 2.2. and 2.3. adds up to a meaningful evolutionary or interim situation whose event-vectors can be identified and singled out.
3. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK : which is the value-base (ecological balance) that must be so clearly and operationally defined that it can be used to judge any established relationships as valid or invalid.
From these points certain new conceptions regarding the level of dependence problem can be derived. For example, and solely as an example, we can establish the following levels:
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TABLE III
| LEVELS | OUTPUT | CONTROLLED INPUTS | UNCTL. INPUTS |
| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |
| | Goals | Objectives | Means | Events |
| | | | | Forecast | Normative |
| Null | g Ø | o Ø | m Ø | e Ø | E Ø |
| Low | g 1 | o 1 | m 1 | e 1 | E 1 |
| High | g 2 | o 2 | m 2 | e 2 | E 2 |
| Ideal | g 3 | o 3 | m 2 | e Ø | E 3 |
From an arrangement of this sort it becomes -- or should become -- possible to build various models (which, basically, are pay-off matrices) in which the combined weights of objectives and means can be made to relate to various levels of forecast and normatively determined future events to derive different levels of goals.
It is in turn from such models that corresponding plans will be constructed in which all the concepts that were listed earlier (Table II) can be related to each other in a way that is not arbitrary but optimizing.
The most important consideration in the structuring of controlled inputs is the definition of "ecological balance" which needs to be established as the governing principle of the objective. Such a definition does not exist at present nor can the idea itself be given any kind of operational meaning through mere verbalization -- namely, through a simple description of what the expression might signify.
"Ecology", that is human ecology in the sense we have described it in the first section of this document is, itself, a
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system of extraordinary complexity comprising both individual in-titles and multidimensional relationships, some of which have network characteristics. All the component forces and phenomena existing in such an ecology cannot be taken into consideration in a study such as the one being envisaged. Nevertheless a series of them that pertain with particular emphasis to those elements of the problematique that will be studied has to be selected and developed into indices, in accordance with the best methods extant for the creation of such indicator lists. It is possible that certain interesting ideas being explored in the USA as part of the effort involved in creating Social Indicators might prove useful, in building such lists.
In conjunction with this, simultaneously in fact, the notion of "balance" will have to be reduced to operational significance. Balance, in a system-wide human environment, is ultimately reducible to a finite number of trade-offs. Hence what will be required to make our objective operational is, in all probability, a three-dimensional matrix in which the selected ecological indicators are ascribed trade-off values not only in terms of monetary cost but also of other vital kinds of "costs" and kinds of "worth" pertaining to action and outcome (i.e., to policies and results).
With such indices and matrices at hand it should become increasingly feasible to view the model of a problematic situation in the relatively simple form
$$W = f(I_1, O_1)$$
where
$$W = \text{the measure of the worth of a particular action (or policy).}$$
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$I_i =$ the input variables that control the alternative courses of action.
$O_i =$ the extraneous, non-controlled variables, that affect action*.
Aside from level relations and adjustments and indices that lend operationality to the objective, the legitimacy of the plan must also derive from its dynamic conception -- namely, from the manner in which the foregoing flow through the system as a whole. For it is evident that the relationships among all operational elements will be constantly changing. Hence it is important to develop from the outset a planning construct that recognizes and accommodates such changes while the work is going on. The rationale for this is that the Club of Rome is not external to the world. It too is part of the situation. Therefore, it follows that its inputs must, themselves, be viewed as feeding into the subject of the work.
Since the subject of the work is in a state of continual flux, the work must necessarily be evolutionary and dynamic. Some results, representing clarifications of the problématique's components, will be obtained as the work process unfolds. In consequence it is likely that:
(1) a feedback loop will be generated going from these continuous interim results back to the Work Group, and change the perception of the latter with regard to the interpretation of the objectives to be attained;
(2) another feedback loop generated by such results will affect the notions that the Work Group has concerning the nature
* This general formulation of action variables within the context of an entire system was developed by Dr. A. H. Chrislakis and Dr. N. M. Kamrany.
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of the output -- i.e., the goal. These shifts, or renewals, in understanding may change the perception of the Club of Rome concerning the problematique and must therefore be viewed as a source of new objectives as well as of new means -- i.e., of new controlled inputs.*
All these feedbacks whether taken singly or in combination will affect the nature of the output and possibly alter it.
Recognition of these processes provides us with a preliminary planning construct which is outlined on the next page (Fig. 3).
Up to this point we have dealt mainly with the controlled inputs side of the overall work plan. In the following pages we shall deal with questions concerning uncontrolled inputs.
* Moreover if such results are very important and dramatic (which is unlikely) they will also create a feedback loop into the situation and generate new events.
But because the probability of this is very low it need not be considered presently. (That is the reason for that loop being shown in broken lines in the figure on the next page.)
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OBJECTIVE MEANS
WORK GROUP
SITUATION
MEANS EVENTS
THE PROJECT
Fig. 3
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C. UNCONTROLLED INPUTS
The uncontrolled inputs with which we shall concern ourselves have been qualified as "events". Events are the substantive elements of the situation; therefore, they describe all the components of the problematique including what we have called the Continuous Critical Problems.
The controlling issue with reference to events -- insofar as the proposed study is concerned -- is that they must be understood in their essence, in their structure, and in their dynamic behavior. Hence our approach to them must be hypothetical-deductive in character; and our aim, the creation of an axiomatic.
This is obviously very difficult because today the configurations of the very important events that are constantly occurring around us are blurred. We have no precise feelings concerning their nature, no real way of formulating ideas about their future implications, no appropriate methods to trace the causal connections between what we sense to be symptoms and what might be the central illness. Linkages that were clear when our minds operated within the framework of determinism have become obscured and confused. Empirically we are able to describe numerous problems--but this approach does not really help us to penetrate the essence of the situation. What seems needed is to proceed, mainly, through heuristic, inventive approaches, using almost any technique in the hope that we might sufficiently disarrange what is obvious so as to be able to penetrate a little further into what might be real.
Once these facts have been clearly recognized and admitted we can start by establishing a number of hypotheses which will underlie as well as guide the study. These hypotheses obviously derive from many sources and represent a particular manner of cognizing the nature of the reality that surrounds us--
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they are, nevertheless, consonant with the value-base of ecological balance we have chosen as the governing objective of the study.
1. The events to be considered are crisis-related components of our situation.
2. In their totality these events represent a problématique. Problématique is not defined by its component events as an aggregation that is analogous to a "set" -- in the mathematical meaning of the term -- but as a system.
3. As such, the events to be studied are in themselves and in their attributes, dynamic, interconnected, and interdependent and that "operate together ... in such a way as to produce some characteristic total effect".*
* In this hypothesis the definitions of Hall and Fagen and that of Allport have been paraphrased somewhat and combined.
See : A.D. Hall and R.E. Fagen. "Definition of System" in Modern Systems Research for the Behavioral Scientist, WW. Huckley (ed.) Aldine Publishing Co., Chicago, 1968.
And, F.H. Allport, Theories of Perception and the Concept of Structure, John Wiley and Sons, New York 1955.
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Note: We shall assume in the study that critical events behave approximately as shown above. Namely, there is a crisis level at about 4 years hence beyond which most of the events we must consider will become uncontrollable, unless they have been deflected by newly developed corrective policies. The deflection period must be conceived as short to be effective (1+year). The lead-time for projects such as the present is generally set to 1-3 years. These figures represent an averaged-out consensus of those working in Crisis Research in the USA. They were obtained from Dr. John Platt of the University of Michigan at Ann Arbor.
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4. These dynamic relationships do not appear to be either regular or stable; they are akin rather to evolutionary "jumps" that create imbalances throughout the system.
5. Such imbalances seem to have two major characteristics:
(a) their time-scale of occurrence is relatively short and might be getting shorter;
(b) they are, or appear to be, a-causal inasmuch as each imbalance has impacts that resonate throughout the system, although in varying degrees of intensity. These characteristics will have to be operationally probed in terms of the fundamental criteria that apply to ecosystems:
- Temporality Complementarity
- Spatiality Mutual-determination
- Quality Competitiveness
- Quantity Synergy
6. This might suggest the presence of various kinds of impingement effects within the system that generate new events. These effects could be phenomena like: interface, mismatches, intersensitivity, clusterings, overlaps, synergies, functional dissonances, time-phase dissonances, etc.
It is in terms of these six basic hypotheses that the study will be conducted. The main thrust of the effort will be directed at identifying:
1 - the "events" within the system -- namely, the components of the problematique.
2 - The "attributes" of the events -- namely, the components' functional characteristics.
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3 - The "relationships", "interconnections", and "interdependencies" among the events and among their attributes.
4 - The "characteristics total effect" that results from all the above and that we have called the "situation".
In the course of the project the greatest emphasis will be given to the first three points noted above, whereas point four is to be viewed as the subject of later efforts that have been mentioned in the opening section of this document.
III. GENERAL COMMENTS ON METHODOLOGY
It is not possible to delve deeply into the methodologies to be used in this project because:
(1) a priori decisions about methodology might prejudice the outlook of the Work Group to a degree that would reduce its effort to an arbitrarily slanted, academic exercise;
(2) although there are a number of methodological approaches that have been evolved in recent years all of them, almost without exception, are still highly experimental -- so that it is impossible to judge their operational worth especially in relation to a large-scale problematique such as the one we shall have to consider.
In the light of the above the best strategy would seem to be that of remaining free of methodological commitments and pre-conceptions and to choose the opposite approaches as we go along and as the work dictates.
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This obviously does not mean that the effort will be entered into blindly. On the contrary, it means the circumstances are such that the greatest freedom of action and flexibility of invention must be preserved. The specific methodological field within which we shall be able to make the needed choices is large, but it can be described if we outline the project's operational evolution, as is done in the flow chart (Fig. 5) on the following page.
This chart shows the step-by-step development of the project starting with the given value-base that leads on the one hand to the creation of a normative image of the future and on the other hand to the setting of the correct objective/means level. From this ground (which satisfies the normative and some of the strategic requirements to start the work) the project proceeds to the identification of "events", namely, the uncontrolled inputs, and advances through self-evident logical steps to the goal.
Each of these steps will require one or more methods or methodological approaches. Decisions with regard to such approaches will have to be made in the course of the work. There are, in fact, several levels of methodology that will have to be closely considered at each stage. A number of these are shown, by way of example and illustration (in Table IV on the page 58) as they pertain to the work in process when such work is broken down into the three fundamental planning categories which are: the Normative, the Strategic, and the Operational.
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Identification of Events (C.C.P.'s)
Image of Future (Derived Forecast)
Normative Image of Future
Value-Base
Objective/Means
Functional Characteristics of Events
Interactive Characteristics of Events
Model of PROBLÉMATIQUE
Critical Future
Policy Implications
GOAL
THE PROJECT
Fig. 5
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TABLE IV
GENERIC METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES
PHASES OF PROJECT
PHACULTURAL-PRESCRIPTIVE DESCRIPTIVE
ANALYTIC
SYNTHESIZING
EVALUATIVE
NORMATIVE Value-Base Definition
Future Image Delineation (Normative Porecasts)
STRATEGIC Identification of Events
Future Image Delineation (Logical Porecasts)
Detective/Means Level Setting
Future Image Delineation (Critical Future)
Policy Implications
Linguistic Delimitation of "ecological" "balance"
IELPHI
Horizontal Relevance Tree Techn. as applied to CCP's
Systemic Separlosebased on CCP's
CONTINUAL Critical Problems
IELPHI ou CCP's
Input/Output Analysis
Game Theory
Cybernetic Planning
Scenarios
Critical Event Network
System Analysis
Trade-off Analyses
Game Theory
System Design
OPERATIONAL Functional Character, of Events
Interactive Character, of Events
Model of Problems
Empirical Causality Matrices
Empirical Causility Matrices Cross Impact Analysis
Graph Theory
Graph Theory
Feedback Theory
Morphological Analysis
System Description
Mathematical Topology
System Descriptor
Structural Model
Analytic Comparison with Value-Base Definition
Systems Analysis
Systems Analysis
Molecular Process Analysis
Molar Process Analysis
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As a final comment on the contents of the preceding table it might bear repeating that the methods which will be used for advancing the work as a whole are not yet fully known. Their elaboration is itself a part of the project. For instance, it is felt intuitively that many developments in cybernetic logic, in multi-valued logic, in generalized logic, in meta-ethics, in economic analysis, in coding, in structural morphology, in biotechnics and in many other areas of knowledge have a great deal of relevance for the effort as a whole. Naturally, they will be introduced into the work process whenever a need for them becomes manifest. Moreover, the present feeling is that no single method or technique will suffice for the purpose before us. Hence combinations that are heuristically conceived will have to be created almost constantly, and experimented with. This applies to the methodologies we have noted as well as to those we have not. All these points are made once more to underline as clearly as feasible that the project as a whole is one of invention and that whatever comes to hand to advance it -- with the requisite intellectual validity and honesty -- will be used, by itself, in combination, or with appropriate modifications.
IV. MODEL OF WORK PROCESS AS PRESENTLY ENVISAGED
Having outlined the manner in which at present we intend to deal with controlled and uncontrolled inputs that are part of the structure of the project as well as work process, we can now complete the model that is descriptive of the whole insofar as we are able to visualize it at this time.
This model is envisioned as a rather simple cybernetic system in which the types of inputs we have discussed are trans-
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formed into outputs that are consonant with the objectives of the Club of Rome, as these objectives were set down in the first section of this document.
Our views of the overall work process are now much clearer, as can be seen in the general model provided on the next page (Fig.6). Into this model we have further introduced an indication of our expectations beyond the execution of the project itself. This was done solely to show how the total idea that inspired the Club of Rome might be viewed in its unfolding during and after the assumed successful conclusion of this particular project. It is in this sense that the prospective possibilities shown below the broken line that divides the diagram ought to be interpreted.
Ob. 1 The prime objectives ascribed to the project by the Club of Rome.
Ob. 2 First changes in Ob. 1 as a result of interim findings by the work Group.
Ob. 3 Final changes in Ob. 1 as a result of the definition and configuration of the Problématique.
Changes in Ob. 1, Ob. 2, Ob. 3 result in firm objectives (0) and required means (M).
M Means provided by the Club of Rome to the Project.
E Situation existing in world system as perceived by Project.
E₁ The uncontrolled inputs from the Problématique on which Project will work.
E₂ Adjustments in the perception of the Problématique as a result of its definition and configuration.
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WORLD SYSTEM
CLUB OF ROME
THE PROJECT
PROBLÉMATIQUE DEFINED & CONFIGURED
GOVERNMENTS
WORLD FORUM
etc.
NEW POLICY STRUCTURE
Fig. 6
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Goals Expected outputs from the definition and configuration of the Problematique.
G.1 Changes affecting perception of the Club of Rome in expected outputs as a result of interim attainment of Goals. These will be expressed in the new formulation of firm Objectives (O) and required Means (M).
G.2 Minor possible impacts of interim outputs on World System -- affecting E and $E_1$.
G.3 If World Forum materializes and continues work, new perceptions will be fed into World System.
G.4 If the work of the World Forum results in new policy structures, World System will be affected.
G.5 Similarly perceptions of the Club of Rome will change.
G.3 and G.4 are viewed as the major "change" agents.
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SECTION THREE
ANNEXES
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ANNEX I
THE CLUB OF ROME
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ANNEX I
The Club of Rome was started following a meeting convened in Rome in April 1968 by the Giovanni Agnelli Foundation and the National Academy of Lincei to discuss new approaches to the problems of world society. At the end of this meeting a number of those present, increasingly concerned about the symptoms of breakdown of our society that are appearing simultaneously with higher levels of prosperity and the ever-quickening application of new technology, decided to continue to work together, and called their group "The Club of Rome" after the city of its origin.
The Club of Rome is an informal, multinational, non-political group of scientists, economists, planners, educators, and business leaders. It is non-political in the sense that its members are not involved in current political decisions and that it has not itself any ideological or national political commitments. Its vocation is the good of mankind -- which in its opinion subsumes also the good of any nation or people in a world that is rapidly emerging as a whole, integrated system. It believes that a rethinking, rediscovery, and reformulation of values consonant with the realities of our time is needed; that broad goals for man and society must be defined; that a new set of institutions and instrumentalities is required to conduct human affairs adequately; and that to organize human society at this higher level we must first understand the present exceptionally dynamic and dangerous world situation and the kind of futures that may eventuate from it. Its overall objectives were thus formulated as follows:
"(a) To contribute toward an understanding of the problems of modern society considered as an ensemble, and to the analysis of the dynamics, interdependencies, interactions, and overlappings that characterize this
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End of preview. Expand
in Data Studio
Document OCR using GLM-OCR
This dataset contains OCR results from images in ShaitanRa/ocr-difficult-tests using GLM-OCR, a compact 0.9B OCR model achieving SOTA performance.
Processing Details
- Source Dataset: ShaitanRa/ocr-difficult-tests
- Model: zai-org/GLM-OCR
- Task: text recognition
- Number of Samples: 94
- Processing Time: 2.7 min
- Processing Date: 2026-02-20 13:25 UTC
Configuration
- Image Column:
image - Output Column:
markdown - Dataset Split:
train - Batch Size: 16
- Max Model Length: 8,192 tokens
- Max Output Tokens: 8,192
- Temperature: 0.01
- Top P: 1e-05
- GPU Memory Utilization: 80.0%
Model Information
GLM-OCR is a compact, high-performance OCR model:
- 0.9B parameters
- 94.62% on OmniDocBench V1.5
- CogViT visual encoder + GLM-0.5B language decoder
- Multi-Token Prediction (MTP) loss for efficiency
- Multilingual: zh, en, fr, es, ru, de, ja, ko
- MIT licensed
Dataset Structure
The dataset contains all original columns plus:
markdown: The extracted text in markdown formatinference_info: JSON list tracking all OCR models applied to this dataset
Reproduction
uv run https://huggingface.co/datasets/uv-scripts/ocr/raw/main/glm-ocr-v2.py \
ShaitanRa/ocr-difficult-tests \
<output-dataset> \
--image-column image \
--batch-size 16 \
--task ocr
Generated with UV Scripts (glm-ocr-v2.py)
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