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| <svg class="ps-sprite" data-color-exempt="logo" aria-hidden="true"><defs><symbol id="psReg" viewBox="0 0 100 100"><circle cx="50" cy="50" r="25" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="8"/><line x1="50" y1="7" x2="50" y2="93" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="8"/><line x1="7" y1="50" x2="93" y2="50" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="8"/></symbol></defs></svg> |
| <header class="header" data-measure-role="header"> |
| <div class="venue"><strong>ICML 2026</strong><span>REPRODUCTION</span></div> |
| <div><h1 class="title">Conditional Coverage Diagnostics for Conformal Prediction</h1><div class="byline">Independent challenge reproduction · SabaPivot · OpenReview vaApZm6MKM</div></div> |
| <div class="status"><div class="small">Outcome</div><div class="large">4 verified · 2 partial</div></div> |
| </header> |
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| <section class="panel"> |
| <div class="eyebrow">Independent headline</div> |
| <div class="hero-stat">77.6%</div> |
| <div class="hero-copy">of the true L1 conditional-coverage deviation recovered by cross-fitted LightGBM at n=5,000.</div> |
| <p class="lede">A functional classifier detects heteroskedastic miscoverage missed by coarse ten-group partitioning.</p> |
| <div class="chip-row"><span class="chip">5-fold CV</span><span class="chip">8 fresh seeds</span><span class="chip emph">independent code <span data-ps-mark="woven" data-color-exempt="logo" aria-hidden="true"><svg viewBox="0 0 100 100"><use href="#psReg"/></svg></span></span></div> |
| <div class="section">What was tested</div> |
| <ul><li>Eight-dimensional heteroskedastic Gaussian regression with standard split conformal intervals.</li><li>L1-, L2-, and KL-ERT from baseline-risk improvement.</li><li>Over/under decomposition and an explicit in-sample leakage stress test.</li></ul> |
| </section> |
| <section class="panel"> |
| <div class="eyebrow">Evidence</div> |
| <figure class="figure"><img data-fig-layout="beside-text" src="results/ert_convergence.png" alt="ERT convergence against test sample size"><figcaption class="caption">Independent convergence study. Dashed line is the true L1 deviation.</figcaption></figure> |
| </section> |
| <section class="panel audit"> |
| <div class="eyebrow">Claim audit</div> |
| <div class="audit-item"> |
| <div class="section">Verified</div> |
| <p class="panel-copy">Definitions, classifier ordering, asymmetric decomposition, and cross-fitting all reproduced independently.</p> |
| </div><div class="audit-item"> |
| <div class="section">Scoped or contradicted</div> |
| <p class="panel-copy">Current arXiv Table 2 says 68.9% versus 33.7%; the supplied claim says 68.4% versus 38.3%. Table 4 was not rerun.</p> |
| </div><div class="audit-item"> |
| <div class="section">Reproducibility boundary</div> |
| <p class="panel-copy">No Hugging Face Job: the token lacks job.write. Public artifacts preserve seeds, outputs, and environment.</p> |
| </div> |
| </section> |
| <aside class="bottom-band"><div><strong>Scope</strong>Synthetic diagnostics, definitions, and cross-fitting leakage.</div><div><strong>Version audit</strong>Current arXiv values checked against the supplied claim text.</div><div><strong>Evidence</strong>Code, CSV metrics, figure, and environment bundled publicly.</div></aside> |
| </article> |
| </div> |
| </section> |
| <section class="scoreboard" data-measure-role="footer-strip"> |
| <div class="metric"><strong>0.07194</strong><span>LightGBM L1-ERT at n=5,000</span></div> |
| <div class="metric"><strong>0.00730</strong><span>PartitionWise L1-ERT at n=5,000</span></div> |
| <div class="metric"><strong>0.0282</strong><span>five-fold value versus 0.168 in-sample</span></div> |
| </section> |
| <footer class="footer" data-measure-role="footer"><div>Rerun: uv run --with-requirements requirements.txt python reproduce.py</div><div class="right">hf.co/datasets/SabaPivot/icml26-repro-conditional-coverage-diagnostics</div></footer> |
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