podcasts
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Collection for podcasts • 511 items • Updated • 2
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A | Why is everything pumping except for ETh? ETH got its blackrock filing for a spot eth ETF and then EtH went up 8%, but then Solana went up 25%. You know what else has pumped in the last two weeks? Avalanche, Chainlink, Thor chain, illuvium, polygon. What's going on in this market? And what does the grayscale eth e trus... |
B | Yeah, this is the first take. The second take is going to help you, David, because that sounds like a little bit of cope, my friend. And we've got some lessons from UD for ETH holders like you on how to cope. And then we've got a better question here. Well, so the question is, are, is the ethereum community, are we the... |
A | David, I think everyone who is paying attention to markets has noticed some sort of trend eth. The bitcoin eth ratio is down bad, like it's Eth down bad versus bitcoin. And then a lot of the down the market cap alts have really, really pumped, notably Solana. And I want to start off this take with a metaphor here of ha... |
B | I've not played craps. I've watched craps being played on tv. So, like, you know, the hangover comes to mind. That's what, that's what I'm looking at. I'm looking at a craps table, and I'm playing with Zach Galifianakis at the craps table. |
A | Yeah. |
B | So tell me how this works, though. |
A | Okay, so craps is a pretty fun game because you have chips, like all games, and your chips can either be on or off the table. And if they are on the table, they are on the table in a specific way. I think of all games in a casino, craps is probably most like the stock market or the crypto market, where like, you can pl... |
B | So it's a multiplayer game? It's not just, like, one stock, it's a multiplayer game. |
A | Multiplayer versus the market. So it's players versus market. Yeah. |
B | Now, in craps, the house always wins, though, right? |
A | Okay, well, in the casino, the house always wins. Okay, so this is kind of my take for what is going on in the market. This is the phase in the market in which players are placing their chips on the table. I think we all have gotten this bullish sentiment in the last two weeks or so, probably sparked by the realization... |
B | So everybody crowds around the craps table, right? |
A | Because I think that at some point, the bear market has concluded. People are tired of being bearish, and they see the bullish catalysts ahead, and they're like, oh, it's time to re enter the game. Where am I going to place my chips? Am I going to play my chips? Place my chips on the floor. Going to place my chips on t... |
B | I just put a number I've got the screen. This is a 30 day gainers over the last 30 days. Solana number two, it's up 164%. You're saying a lot of players are putting their, their chips on the Solana Square right now? |
A | Yeah, that's totally right. And if you actually look at the monthly winners here, you actually see a lot of familiar faces from last bull market. Thor chain is number one at up 200%. Solana on the 30 day, up 150%. IMX 120%. Illuvium, 110%. Remember, pancake swap on binance. Smart chain up 100%. Chainlink, 95%. Avalanch... |
B | So. So I get that point. So, but this still doesn't answer the question, which is, why is everything, why are all of these other things pumping? And why isn't eth pumping? I would have expected it to also be part of the. The chips that even the internal, uh, I guess casino is. Is bidding up, and it's not happening. Thi... |
A | So I have two takes on this. I think ETH was a clear winner in the 2022 bear market year, where prices were just going down. ETH was a relative winner. It held strong versus bitcoin, alts, avalanche, Solana, terra Luna, all just got decimated versus Ethan. And so people who decided to leave chips on the table, if they ... |
B | I sort of get that argument. By the way, I was one of those buyers because it was very clear to me over the summer that e was underrated relative to the price of ether. So this was in retirement accounts, and I purchased some of that ETh. And so I think part of that makes sense, but that is only a temporal phenomenon. ... |
A | Over now have a huge premium over Nav right now, both Solana and link. |
B | Okay, David, so, so I get what you're saying, because I was actually one of those buyers. Over the summer, I saw this massive discount of ETh, discount to Nav, and I was like, I had some retirement accounts with some dry powder in them, and I went in, and that makes sense. But at some point in time, there will be no di... |
A | Well, I think this is why I brought up the idea of the craps table at the very beginning. When it's bull market time, it is narrative season. People rotate from six to four to eight. It's rotation time. And so there's going to be different narratives that circulate around the bull market that people are going to try an... |
B | Okay, so I've got two comments on that. Number one, the first is this, doesn't this depend very much on what the net new buyers want to actually buy and invest in? And maybe you could make the case that bitcoin and ether are going to get a to ETF's that are institutional grade months, years ahead of everybody else, act... |
A | This is the capital assets, equities, crypto equities. |
B | What do you need ETH for? ETh is just gas. Okay. So it reminds me a little bit of that trade, that narrative trade that probably lasted for three to six months, I would say, in 2020. Except this time it's bitcoin, which has seen some inflows relative to its market size, some impressive inflows. And it's Solana taking t... |
A | The 2021 tokens that made it through the 2022, and three excited communities. |
B | Right. And enthused communities. So it reminds me of that, that leg of the narrative segment. Do you think I'm onto something there? |
A | Yeah, I think that's totally right. People are taking their loose change, their remaining powder, and they're deploying it onto assets that they think are going to be bull market winners. One of the themes that I'm noticing in, like, all of these tokens that have pumped recently, right, Solana, Chainlink, Avalanche Pol... |
B | So what conclusions do you have from this take? David? |
A | I have. I have one big conclusion and one big question that I think everyone in the crypto industry needs to ask ourselves. Because this bull market catalyst, the bitcoin and ether spot ETF approvals, hopefully approvals that we're assuming approvals. That is awesome. That is great. That's a huge milestone for the indu... |
B | Where indeed does the question, and when we come back, I'll ask you another question, which is, was all of that cope, David? That's what we're about to discuss, guys. Stay tuned. Okay, I'm opening with this meme, David, are we the baddies now? This is the Ethereum community here. I spun this up for a bankless take show... |
A | Ogs do or the old guardian alignment. |
B | Yeah, no one cares. Did anyone care in the bitcoin maxi circles about their ability to kind of run a node or like their kind of like, block size debates? No. Step three, he says, stop being a maxi. Don't tie your identity to your bags. Step four, hone in on what you're good at. Quite simply, Ethereum is good at a lot o... |
A | What do you think is our Ethereum Maxis? This new bitcoin maxis? Yes and no. Bitcoin maxis are insane. People like, those people are disconnected from reality. |
B | Okay? |
A | People that never dabbled with Ethereum would just advantage, like repeat the same bitcoin, Maximus, goswell, if you can't run an Ethereum node, blah, blah, blah, blah, just like straight things that are just completely disconnected from reality. Yeah, like to some sort of like religious zealot. Zealotrism. |
B | Okay, but they don't think that that's the thing. You could be in your own bubble yet. Like, they don't think that they're crazy. You, you might be crazy and not know that you're crazy. |
A | And that's the yes part of the question is like, well, like, I'm sure that I have said some things about Solana in the past that are just objectively untrue. Yeah, but there's a difference between the crazy zealotry of a bitcoin maximalist and the actual, like, pragmatism and like generally reasonableness of Ethereum. ... |
B | Why is this? Because you respond to facts and logic and you generally, you don't lie. Sometimes you're mistaken, but you're trying not to spread misinformation and propaganda. |
A | Yes, I was. I would say a characterization of Ethereum, Maximus included, is generally an interest in the truth. That is, I would say that is a ethereum property which when we're at our best. When we're at our best, yes. Right. Not always perfectly attempt to seek truth. And so, like, yeah, like there's maximalism and ... |
B | Sure. |
A | But it's like, so we all have that gene, but do we also have like, you have activator genes and you also have like suppressor genes, right? So bitcoin maximalists have very high maximalist genes with no suppressor genes. And I would say the Ethereum maximalists have much more suppressor genes of maximalist tendencies t... |
B | I also think that there's an element of you want to be, you want to veer towards maxi on maxi values, right? A set of values that you hold true to. But when you get Maxi to a certain asset or a certain school of thought and you kind of disconnect that from values and it becomes like my team versus your team, just becau... |
A | It's about bitcoin. |
B | That's the only asset. It's mono asset. And I also think that one thing that people mistake, in addition to mixing up a values maxi with like, a specific tribe, maxi having a thesis about a particular set of assets is not being maxi. That's called being an investor. And there's a huge difference. Like, I have a thesis,... |
A | Knowing Udi, a lot of motivations for this massive tweet is for tribes to be told that they're wrong. Like, Ooty is like tribe tribalist and he loves knocking down other people, and he will definitely take that opportunity to do that. He'll always try and take, like, the Ethereum maxis down a peg because, like, he's a ... |
B | Well, we are, David, that's the thing. We are. That's what layer twos are. You could do, you could do multi threaded, you could do like whatever you want. |
A | Ok, so the Solana side would be like, no, it needs to be on the layer one. |
B | But it doesn't though that, that. So here's the other thing I think is that not only are people fading Ethereum, people are fading layer twos way too early. Right? I don't know if you saw this tweet from Mustafa albasam. Okay, so imagine if PayPal decided to start running a roll up sequencer. Just, they were just using... |
A | The PayPal app is now a roll up PayPal app. |
B | And I think a lot of people assume that people, you know, that new folks that are using crypto are going to enter it the same way we did. They're going to open up their phantom wallet or their metamask wallet, and they're going to create an account and start using the chain. It doesn't necessarily have to happen that w... |
A | In the bull market. |
B | In the bull market, it's a $250 billion asset. It's not, it's not a penny coin. Okay? So if ETH goes up 10%, it adds a solana to its market cap. That's how big it is. All right? So there are tons of higher return assets that you can buy in a bull market. And people should have fun with that. If they're playing the crap... |
A | Right. He's presenting a narrative that a very small minority of Ethereum is representing. |
B | Well, I think there are some. And I think that I don't want to completely discount this because you'll always find true eth maxi on Twitter who just hates this and is not honest and all of these things. Okay. But I think this in general, if you are a person who is bitter and angry, every time someone else's coin, a coi... |
A | The bull market is going to suck. It's going to lose money. |
B | So this is where like, comparison is the thief of joy. You know, we did that Morgan Housel episode earlier this week and he just brought some timeless investing tips and like, one of them is how to be happy. And the way you are happy is you don't envy somebody else's gains. Okay. Like if youre buying Eth, youre buying ... |
A | Have two takes to round out this section before we go on to the last. I thought Santiago summed this up nicely when he put out this tweet. There are two kinds of people. Those that celebrate the success of others and those that can't stand it. Be the former. Just good. If you are not Zen as you go through this bull mar... |
B | Wait, are you telling me you didn't read this? |
A | I read parts of it. I'm like, no, it's just like Udi likes to twist knifes around narratives. |
B | Yeah, well, he's great at that. |
A | He's really good at it. |
B | I think it's a tweet that sounds a lot smarter than it actually is. No disrespect duty, but we know. |
A | We know who you are. |
B | We know the game you're playing. |
A | We know your game. |
B | All right, last take. You ready for it? Yeah. |
A | Hit me. |
B | David, I think the bull market is more dangerous than the bear market, and I expect you're going to agree with me on this. Okay? And the reason is I can try. |
A | Not to if you want. |
B | I've. I've said, I've. I've seen firsthand that bull markets are more dangerous than bear markets. And that. That. What that means is that's when an investor. That's when I have made all of my mistakes. I don't generally make mistakes during the bear market. Right. Because the only mistake you can make during the bear ... |
A | I make good decisions at the beginning of a bull market. My decisions, my quality of my decisions decay as time goes on. And also, just to play devil's advocate, there are more decisions to make in a bull market. So there's more traps to fall into, 100%. |
B | But you don't have to make these decisions. That's the thing. I think they're false decisions. |
A | You kind of got to play the game, though. Sometimes. |
B | You don't have to. You don't actually. All right, so you don't. That's what I'm saying. And then. And then as you do, as the buzz kicks in and as you get drunker and drunker during the party, that FoMO is going to sound like a good idea. So while we're all sober here, this was a continuation from. From last week where ... |
A | And sometimes they. Instead of forgetting to dollar cost average out, they actually accelerate their DCA ing in. |
B | Yeah, exactly. I mean, you know, if you're DCA ing into, you know, good assets, I think that makes sense. Anyway, have a sell plan. But one tip on that, don't sell everything. Don't sell everything, would be my tip. Uh, hold on to some things. Remember, crypto isn't a secular bull market. It's like a multi decade bull ... |
A | It's never gone down over the longest amounts of time. |
B | Here's another one. Don't chase the pumps. All right, so have a home base. My home base is bitcoin and ether. Um, less ether. Less bitcoin than ether. Um, others might be a different set of assets. You know, the link. Marines might. Their home base might be linked. Some people have a home base of Solana. Mine is like, ... |
A | I'm about. No, I'm more djen than you. So I'm anywhere between, like, 75 and 80 to 25 to 20. |
B | Okay. But it's still not crazy. |
A | I play craps. |
B | I mean, some people flip that and they have, like, ten to 20% on the home base. |
A | And my first bull market, I was like, 90%. No, I was 100% play. I was a hundred percent. |
B | No judgment. No judgment. |
A | And it worked. And then it didn't work well. |
B | But the one thing I'd say to you, right, like, if you're playing that game, that's a game you can play. Rotate those profits into home base, though. Again, back to number one, have a sell plan, right? So don't just, like, roll with it. I think you got to rotate those assets into a safer things. Number three. David, why... |
A | Number three, set aside taxes. When you swap assets, you are incurring a taxable event, likely, because probably that asset went up so that means that you owe somebody else the IR's or your respective tax agency. Whatever country you live in, you owe them money. So if you keep your chips on the table, but you are accum... |
B | Yeah. I love that you are the one to say this, David. That is so good. |
A | Why? |
B | I think everyone knows why. People can infer if they don't know us well. But my advice is record your tax obligations as they're incurred. Not at the end of the year, because they can, they can mount up. That bill can. |
A | Don't estimate them in your head. Don't have a paper, paper tax bill in your head. |
B | Just set some stuff aside as you go for we already covered, which is don't compare with other people. And then fifth is something we talk about so often on bank list, which is choose your character class. So this is mostly for first cyclers. |
A | I would say for new, newer people, older people generally know what their strategy is. |
B | I think people switch into things. Like you said, your first cycle, you're probably like narrative trader, right? And Gem Hunter. That was your. Those were your dual character class follower a little bit. Now you've become more a long term investor plus some narrative trade on the side, right? So you've reallocated you... |
A | Right. |
B | Like, it just doesn't work. The last thing I would say is this is how we're all going to feel pretty soon. We're all pretty soon, if this bull market goes how we expect it to go, you're going to feel real smart. You're going to feel, like, smart. |
A | Yeah. |
B | Okay. And the smart, invincible. |
A | Invincible, too. |
B | Yep. The smarter you feel, the dumber you actually are. Okay. Because that's when you start to make the bad decisions. |
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