Promote and publish CRFB long-run release crfb-longrun-20260517
Browse filesThis view is limited to 50 files because it contains too many changes. See raw diff
- long_term/2026.h5 +3 -0
- long_term/2026.h5.metadata.json +231 -0
- long_term/2027.h5 +3 -0
- long_term/2027.h5.metadata.json +231 -0
- long_term/2028.h5 +3 -0
- long_term/2028.h5.metadata.json +231 -0
- long_term/2029.h5 +3 -0
- long_term/2029.h5.metadata.json +231 -0
- long_term/2030.h5 +3 -0
- long_term/2030.h5.metadata.json +231 -0
- long_term/2031.h5 +3 -0
- long_term/2031.h5.metadata.json +231 -0
- long_term/2032.h5 +3 -0
- long_term/2032.h5.metadata.json +231 -0
- long_term/2033.h5 +3 -0
- long_term/2033.h5.metadata.json +231 -0
- long_term/2034.h5 +3 -0
- long_term/2034.h5.metadata.json +231 -0
- long_term/2035.h5 +3 -0
- long_term/2035.h5.metadata.json +231 -0
- long_term/2036.h5 +3 -0
- long_term/2036.h5.metadata.json +231 -0
- long_term/2037.h5 +3 -0
- long_term/2037.h5.metadata.json +231 -0
- long_term/2038.h5 +3 -0
- long_term/2038.h5.metadata.json +231 -0
- long_term/2039.h5 +3 -0
- long_term/2039.h5.metadata.json +231 -0
- long_term/2040.h5 +3 -0
- long_term/2040.h5.metadata.json +231 -0
- long_term/2041.h5 +3 -0
- long_term/2041.h5.metadata.json +231 -0
- long_term/2042.h5 +3 -0
- long_term/2042.h5.metadata.json +231 -0
- long_term/2043.h5 +3 -0
- long_term/2043.h5.metadata.json +231 -0
- long_term/2044.h5 +3 -0
- long_term/2044.h5.metadata.json +231 -0
- long_term/2045.h5 +3 -0
- long_term/2045.h5.metadata.json +231 -0
- long_term/2046.h5 +3 -0
- long_term/2046.h5.metadata.json +231 -0
- long_term/2047.h5 +3 -0
- long_term/2047.h5.metadata.json +231 -0
- long_term/2048.h5 +3 -0
- long_term/2048.h5.metadata.json +231 -0
- long_term/2049.h5 +3 -0
- long_term/2049.h5.metadata.json +231 -0
- long_term/2050.h5 +3 -0
- long_term/2050.h5.metadata.json +231 -0
long_term/2026.h5
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long_term/2026.h5.metadata.json
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|
| 189 |
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|
| 190 |
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|
| 191 |
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|
| 192 |
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|
| 193 |
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|
| 194 |
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|
| 195 |
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|
| 196 |
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|
| 197 |
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|
| 198 |
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|
| 199 |
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"target_source": {
|
| 200 |
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"baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
|
| 201 |
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"description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
|
| 202 |
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"file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
|
| 203 |
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"name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
|
| 204 |
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|
| 205 |
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"notes": [
|
| 206 |
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"Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
|
| 207 |
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],
|
| 208 |
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"sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
|
| 209 |
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|
| 210 |
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"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
|
| 211 |
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"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
|
| 212 |
+
],
|
| 213 |
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"type": "trustees_current_law"
|
| 214 |
+
},
|
| 215 |
+
"tax_assumption": {
|
| 216 |
+
"description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
|
| 217 |
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"economic_assumption": "trustees-2025-nawi-v1",
|
| 218 |
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"end_year": 2100,
|
| 219 |
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"income_uprating_assumption": "trustees-2025-soi-income-nawi-v1",
|
| 220 |
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"name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
|
| 221 |
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"not_default_current_law": true,
|
| 222 |
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"parameter_groups": [
|
| 223 |
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"all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
|
| 224 |
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],
|
| 225 |
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"projection_base_year": 2026,
|
| 226 |
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"source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
|
| 227 |
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"start_year": 2035,
|
| 228 |
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"uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating"
|
| 229 |
+
},
|
| 230 |
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"year": 2026
|
| 231 |
+
}
|
long_term/2027.h5
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long_term/2027.h5.metadata.json
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"benchmark_tob": false,
|
| 183 |
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"calibration_method": "entropy",
|
| 184 |
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"description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
|
| 185 |
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"max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
|
| 186 |
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|
| 187 |
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|
| 188 |
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|
| 189 |
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|
| 190 |
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|
| 191 |
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|
| 192 |
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"name": "ss-payroll-tob",
|
| 193 |
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|
| 194 |
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|
| 195 |
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|
| 196 |
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"use_ss": true,
|
| 197 |
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|
| 198 |
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|
| 199 |
+
"target_source": {
|
| 200 |
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"baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
|
| 201 |
+
"description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
|
| 202 |
+
"file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
|
| 203 |
+
"name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
|
| 204 |
+
"not_law": false,
|
| 205 |
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"notes": [
|
| 206 |
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"Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
|
| 207 |
+
],
|
| 208 |
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"sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
|
| 209 |
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"source_urls": [
|
| 210 |
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"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
|
| 211 |
+
"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
|
| 212 |
+
],
|
| 213 |
+
"type": "trustees_current_law"
|
| 214 |
+
},
|
| 215 |
+
"tax_assumption": {
|
| 216 |
+
"description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
|
| 217 |
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"economic_assumption": "trustees-2025-nawi-v1",
|
| 218 |
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"end_year": 2100,
|
| 219 |
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"income_uprating_assumption": "trustees-2025-soi-income-nawi-v1",
|
| 220 |
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"name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
|
| 221 |
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"not_default_current_law": true,
|
| 222 |
+
"parameter_groups": [
|
| 223 |
+
"all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
|
| 224 |
+
],
|
| 225 |
+
"projection_base_year": 2026,
|
| 226 |
+
"source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
|
| 227 |
+
"start_year": 2035,
|
| 228 |
+
"uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating"
|
| 229 |
+
},
|
| 230 |
+
"year": 2027
|
| 231 |
+
}
|
long_term/2028.h5
ADDED
|
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version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
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long_term/2028.h5.metadata.json
ADDED
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@@ -0,0 +1,231 @@
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{
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|
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|
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|
| 23 |
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"classification": "hard",
|
| 24 |
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| 25 |
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"source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
|
| 26 |
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},
|
| 27 |
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"hi_tob": {
|
| 28 |
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"classification": "hard",
|
| 29 |
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|
| 30 |
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"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
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|
| 32 |
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| 33 |
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| 45 |
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| 46 |
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| 47 |
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| 49 |
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| 54 |
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|
| 175 |
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|
| 176 |
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|
| 177 |
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|
| 178 |
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|
| 179 |
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|
| 180 |
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|
| 181 |
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|
| 182 |
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|
| 183 |
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|
| 184 |
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|
| 185 |
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|
| 186 |
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|
| 187 |
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|
| 188 |
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|
| 189 |
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|
| 190 |
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|
| 191 |
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|
| 192 |
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"name": "ss-payroll-tob",
|
| 193 |
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|
| 194 |
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|
| 195 |
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|
| 196 |
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|
| 197 |
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|
| 198 |
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|
| 199 |
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"target_source": {
|
| 200 |
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"baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
|
| 201 |
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"description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
|
| 202 |
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"file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
|
| 203 |
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"name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
|
| 204 |
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"not_law": false,
|
| 205 |
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"notes": [
|
| 206 |
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"Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
|
| 207 |
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],
|
| 208 |
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"sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
|
| 209 |
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"source_urls": [
|
| 210 |
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"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
|
| 211 |
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"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
|
| 212 |
+
],
|
| 213 |
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"type": "trustees_current_law"
|
| 214 |
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},
|
| 215 |
+
"tax_assumption": {
|
| 216 |
+
"description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
|
| 217 |
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"economic_assumption": "trustees-2025-nawi-v1",
|
| 218 |
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"end_year": 2100,
|
| 219 |
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"income_uprating_assumption": "trustees-2025-soi-income-nawi-v1",
|
| 220 |
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"name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
|
| 221 |
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"not_default_current_law": true,
|
| 222 |
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"parameter_groups": [
|
| 223 |
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"all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
|
| 224 |
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],
|
| 225 |
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"projection_base_year": 2026,
|
| 226 |
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"source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
|
| 227 |
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"start_year": 2035,
|
| 228 |
+
"uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating"
|
| 229 |
+
},
|
| 230 |
+
"year": 2028
|
| 231 |
+
}
|
long_term/2029.h5
ADDED
|
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version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
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long_term/2029.h5.metadata.json
ADDED
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@@ -0,0 +1,231 @@
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{
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| 25 |
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|
| 26 |
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|
| 27 |
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| 28 |
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|
| 29 |
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|
| 167 |
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|
| 168 |
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|
| 169 |
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{
|
| 170 |
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|
| 171 |
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|
| 172 |
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|
| 173 |
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|
| 174 |
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| 175 |
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|
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|
| 181 |
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|
| 183 |
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|
| 184 |
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| 185 |
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| 186 |
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|
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|
| 191 |
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|
| 192 |
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|
| 193 |
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|
| 194 |
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|
| 195 |
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|
| 196 |
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|
| 197 |
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|
| 198 |
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|
| 199 |
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"target_source": {
|
| 200 |
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"baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
|
| 201 |
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"description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
|
| 202 |
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"file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
|
| 203 |
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"name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
|
| 204 |
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|
| 205 |
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|
| 206 |
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"Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
|
| 207 |
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|
| 208 |
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"sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
|
| 209 |
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|
| 210 |
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"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
|
| 211 |
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"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
|
| 212 |
+
],
|
| 213 |
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"type": "trustees_current_law"
|
| 214 |
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},
|
| 215 |
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"tax_assumption": {
|
| 216 |
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"description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
|
| 217 |
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"economic_assumption": "trustees-2025-nawi-v1",
|
| 218 |
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"end_year": 2100,
|
| 219 |
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"income_uprating_assumption": "trustees-2025-soi-income-nawi-v1",
|
| 220 |
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"name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
|
| 221 |
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"not_default_current_law": true,
|
| 222 |
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"parameter_groups": [
|
| 223 |
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"all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
|
| 224 |
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],
|
| 225 |
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"projection_base_year": 2026,
|
| 226 |
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"source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
|
| 227 |
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"start_year": 2035,
|
| 228 |
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"uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating"
|
| 229 |
+
},
|
| 230 |
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"year": 2029
|
| 231 |
+
}
|
long_term/2030.h5
ADDED
|
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long_term/2030.h5.metadata.json
ADDED
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@@ -0,0 +1,231 @@
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{
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| 25 |
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|
| 26 |
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|
| 27 |
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| 28 |
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| 29 |
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| 162 |
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|
| 163 |
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|
| 164 |
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|
| 165 |
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|
| 166 |
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|
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|
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|
| 169 |
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|
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|
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|
| 183 |
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|
| 184 |
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| 185 |
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|
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|
| 191 |
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|
| 192 |
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|
| 193 |
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|
| 194 |
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|
| 195 |
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|
| 196 |
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|
| 197 |
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|
| 198 |
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|
| 199 |
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|
| 200 |
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"baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
|
| 201 |
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"description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
|
| 202 |
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"file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
|
| 203 |
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"name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
|
| 204 |
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|
| 205 |
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|
| 206 |
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"Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
|
| 207 |
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|
| 208 |
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|
| 209 |
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|
| 210 |
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"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
|
| 211 |
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"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
|
| 212 |
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],
|
| 213 |
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"type": "trustees_current_law"
|
| 214 |
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|
| 215 |
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"tax_assumption": {
|
| 216 |
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"description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
|
| 217 |
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"economic_assumption": "trustees-2025-nawi-v1",
|
| 218 |
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"end_year": 2100,
|
| 219 |
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"income_uprating_assumption": "trustees-2025-soi-income-nawi-v1",
|
| 220 |
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"name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
|
| 221 |
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"not_default_current_law": true,
|
| 222 |
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"parameter_groups": [
|
| 223 |
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"all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
|
| 224 |
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],
|
| 225 |
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"projection_base_year": 2026,
|
| 226 |
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"source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
|
| 227 |
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"start_year": 2035,
|
| 228 |
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"uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating"
|
| 229 |
+
},
|
| 230 |
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"year": 2030
|
| 231 |
+
}
|
long_term/2031.h5
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version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
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long_term/2031.h5.metadata.json
ADDED
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{
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|
| 26 |
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|
| 27 |
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| 28 |
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| 29 |
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|
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| 199 |
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|
| 200 |
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| 201 |
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|
| 202 |
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|
| 203 |
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|
| 204 |
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|
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|
| 206 |
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|
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|
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|
| 210 |
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|
| 211 |
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|
| 212 |
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|
| 213 |
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|
| 214 |
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|
| 215 |
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|
| 216 |
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"description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
|
| 217 |
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|
| 218 |
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|
| 219 |
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|
| 220 |
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"name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
|
| 221 |
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|
| 222 |
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|
| 223 |
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|
| 224 |
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|
| 225 |
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"projection_base_year": 2026,
|
| 226 |
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"source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
|
| 227 |
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"start_year": 2035,
|
| 228 |
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"uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating"
|
| 229 |
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|
| 230 |
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|
| 231 |
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|
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|
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|
| 196 |
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|
| 197 |
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|
| 198 |
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|
| 199 |
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|
| 200 |
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|
| 201 |
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"description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
|
| 202 |
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|
| 203 |
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"name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
|
| 204 |
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|
| 205 |
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|
| 206 |
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|
| 207 |
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|
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|
| 210 |
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|
| 211 |
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|
| 212 |
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|
| 213 |
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|
| 214 |
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|
| 215 |
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|
| 216 |
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"description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
|
| 217 |
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|
| 218 |
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|
| 219 |
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|
| 220 |
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"name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
|
| 221 |
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|
| 222 |
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|
| 223 |
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|
| 224 |
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|
| 225 |
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"projection_base_year": 2026,
|
| 226 |
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"source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
|
| 227 |
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"start_year": 2035,
|
| 228 |
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"uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating"
|
| 229 |
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},
|
| 230 |
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"year": 2032
|
| 231 |
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}
|
long_term/2033.h5
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long_term/2033.h5.metadata.json
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|
| 199 |
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|
| 200 |
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|
| 201 |
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"description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
|
| 202 |
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"file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
|
| 203 |
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"name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
|
| 204 |
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|
| 205 |
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|
| 206 |
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|
| 207 |
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| 209 |
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|
| 210 |
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|
| 211 |
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|
| 212 |
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|
| 213 |
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|
| 214 |
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|
| 215 |
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|
| 216 |
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"description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
|
| 217 |
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|
| 218 |
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|
| 219 |
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|
| 220 |
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"name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
|
| 221 |
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|
| 222 |
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|
| 223 |
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|
| 224 |
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|
| 225 |
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"projection_base_year": 2026,
|
| 226 |
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"source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
|
| 227 |
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"start_year": 2035,
|
| 228 |
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"uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating"
|
| 229 |
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},
|
| 230 |
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"year": 2033
|
| 231 |
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}
|
long_term/2034.h5
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long_term/2034.h5.metadata.json
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@@ -0,0 +1,231 @@
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| 202 |
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|
| 211 |
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|
| 212 |
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|
| 213 |
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|
| 214 |
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|
| 215 |
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|
| 216 |
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|
| 217 |
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| 218 |
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| 219 |
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| 220 |
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|
| 221 |
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|
| 222 |
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| 223 |
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|
| 224 |
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|
| 226 |
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|
| 227 |
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|
| 228 |
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| 229 |
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| 230 |
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|
| 231 |
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|
| 212 |
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| 213 |
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|
| 214 |
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|
| 215 |
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|
| 216 |
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| 217 |
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| 218 |
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| 219 |
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| 220 |
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| 221 |
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|
| 222 |
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|
| 224 |
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| 225 |
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|
| 226 |
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"source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
|
| 227 |
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|
| 228 |
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| 229 |
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| 230 |
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|
| 231 |
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|
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| 212 |
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| 216 |
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| 218 |
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| 231 |
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long_term/2037.h5
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| 212 |
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| 215 |
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| 216 |
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| 218 |
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| 224 |
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| 227 |
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| 228 |
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| 212 |
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| 215 |
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| 216 |
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| 218 |
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| 227 |
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| 228 |
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| 231 |
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| 212 |
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| 216 |
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| 218 |
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| 212 |
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| 215 |
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| 216 |
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| 218 |
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| 212 |
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| 215 |
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| 216 |
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| 218 |
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| 227 |
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| 228 |
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| 231 |
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| 215 |
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| 216 |
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| 218 |
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| 227 |
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| 231 |
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| 216 |
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| 216 |
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| 216 |
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| 31 |
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| 216 |
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|
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"file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
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