Stage CRFB long-run data crfb-longrun-20260517 batch 14
Browse files- staging/crfb-longrun-20260517/long_term/2081.h5.metadata.json +330 -0
- staging/crfb-longrun-20260517/long_term/2082.h5.metadata.json +330 -0
- staging/crfb-longrun-20260517/long_term/2083.h5.metadata.json +330 -0
- staging/crfb-longrun-20260517/long_term/2084.h5.metadata.json +330 -0
- staging/crfb-longrun-20260517/long_term/2085.h5.metadata.json +330 -0
- staging/crfb-longrun-20260517/long_term/2086.h5.metadata.json +330 -0
- staging/crfb-longrun-20260517/long_term/2087.h5.metadata.json +330 -0
- staging/crfb-longrun-20260517/long_term/2088.h5.metadata.json +330 -0
- staging/crfb-longrun-20260517/long_term/2089.h5.metadata.json +330 -0
- staging/crfb-longrun-20260517/long_term/2090.h5.metadata.json +330 -0
staging/crfb-longrun-20260517/long_term/2081.h5.metadata.json
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,330 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
{
|
| 2 |
+
"base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5",
|
| 3 |
+
"base_dataset_snapshot": {
|
| 4 |
+
"requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5",
|
| 5 |
+
"resolved_file_sha256": "96965b0d9931d36beb29486b25fffee8b630e3b62c9376e7265976e02f7ab3ca",
|
| 6 |
+
"resolved_mtime_ns": 1778905303378497095,
|
| 7 |
+
"resolved_path": "/Users/maxghenis/.cache/huggingface/hub/models--policyengine--policyengine-us-data/blobs/96965b0d9931d36beb29486b25fffee8b630e3b62c9376e7265976e02f7ab3ca",
|
| 8 |
+
"resolved_size": 106261154
|
| 9 |
+
},
|
| 10 |
+
"calibration_audit": {
|
| 11 |
+
"age_bucket_count": 18,
|
| 12 |
+
"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 13 |
+
"age_max_pct_error": 4.1978355017328924e-10,
|
| 14 |
+
"approximate_entropy_error": null,
|
| 15 |
+
"approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
|
| 16 |
+
"approximate_solution_used": false,
|
| 17 |
+
"approximation_method": null,
|
| 18 |
+
"baseline_weight_sum": 928830661.0420163,
|
| 19 |
+
"calibrated_weight_sum": 239412500.54159355,
|
| 20 |
+
"calibration_quality": "exact",
|
| 21 |
+
"clone_donor_family_count": 880,
|
| 22 |
+
"clone_donor_family_effective_sample_size": 59.83348527911693,
|
| 23 |
+
"clone_older_donor_count": 70,
|
| 24 |
+
"clone_older_donor_effective_sample_size": 31.6802002785667,
|
| 25 |
+
"clone_worker_donor_count": 100,
|
| 26 |
+
"clone_worker_donor_effective_sample_size": 41.60842719005444,
|
| 27 |
+
"constraint_provenance": {
|
| 28 |
+
"age_targets": {
|
| 29 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 30 |
+
"scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
|
| 31 |
+
"source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
|
| 32 |
+
},
|
| 33 |
+
"hi_tob": {
|
| 34 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 35 |
+
"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
|
| 36 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 37 |
+
},
|
| 38 |
+
"income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
|
| 39 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 40 |
+
"scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
|
| 41 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
|
| 42 |
+
},
|
| 43 |
+
"income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
|
| 44 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 45 |
+
"scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
|
| 46 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
|
| 47 |
+
},
|
| 48 |
+
"oasdi_tob": {
|
| 49 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 50 |
+
"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
|
| 51 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 52 |
+
},
|
| 53 |
+
"payroll_total": {
|
| 54 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 55 |
+
"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
|
| 56 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 57 |
+
},
|
| 58 |
+
"ss_total": {
|
| 59 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 60 |
+
"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
|
| 61 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 62 |
+
}
|
| 63 |
+
},
|
| 64 |
+
"constraints": {
|
| 65 |
+
"hi_tob": {
|
| 66 |
+
"achieved": 873880000005.2715,
|
| 67 |
+
"error": 5.271484375,
|
| 68 |
+
"pct_error": 6.032274883279169e-10,
|
| 69 |
+
"target": 873880000000.0
|
| 70 |
+
},
|
| 71 |
+
"income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
|
| 72 |
+
"achieved": 13021287178199.86,
|
| 73 |
+
"error": -439.16015625,
|
| 74 |
+
"pct_error": -3.3726324458186236e-09,
|
| 75 |
+
"target": 13021287178639.02
|
| 76 |
+
},
|
| 77 |
+
"income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
|
| 78 |
+
"achieved": 7139183301252.487,
|
| 79 |
+
"error": 1330.2568359375,
|
| 80 |
+
"pct_error": 1.86331794555827e-08,
|
| 81 |
+
"target": 7139183299922.23
|
| 82 |
+
},
|
| 83 |
+
"oasdi_tob": {
|
| 84 |
+
"achieved": 1038082000008.2194,
|
| 85 |
+
"error": 8.21923828125,
|
| 86 |
+
"pct_error": 7.917715827121556e-10,
|
| 87 |
+
"target": 1038082000000.0001
|
| 88 |
+
},
|
| 89 |
+
"payroll_total": {
|
| 90 |
+
"achieved": 90268000000140.9,
|
| 91 |
+
"error": 140.90625,
|
| 92 |
+
"pct_error": 1.560976758098108e-10,
|
| 93 |
+
"target": 90268000000000.0
|
| 94 |
+
},
|
| 95 |
+
"ss_total": {
|
| 96 |
+
"achieved": 17111622000047.117,
|
| 97 |
+
"error": 47.1171875,
|
| 98 |
+
"pct_error": 2.753519654653428e-10,
|
| 99 |
+
"target": 17111622000000.0
|
| 100 |
+
}
|
| 101 |
+
},
|
| 102 |
+
"donor_family_count": 41694,
|
| 103 |
+
"donor_family_effective_sample_size": 482.393138857795,
|
| 104 |
+
"effective_sample_size": 482.63809140015746,
|
| 105 |
+
"entropy_error": null,
|
| 106 |
+
"fell_back_to_ipf": false,
|
| 107 |
+
"greg_attempted": false,
|
| 108 |
+
"greg_error": null,
|
| 109 |
+
"hi_tob_contributor_count": 41694,
|
| 110 |
+
"hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 64.30398570030196,
|
| 111 |
+
"hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 9244,
|
| 112 |
+
"largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
|
| 113 |
+
"lp_fallback_used": false,
|
| 114 |
+
"max_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 4.728498573609202,
|
| 115 |
+
"max_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 5.3361586759784805,
|
| 116 |
+
"max_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 4.751360905208662,
|
| 117 |
+
"max_constraint_pct_error": 1.86331794555827e-08,
|
| 118 |
+
"max_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 1.6596052718212146,
|
| 119 |
+
"max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 6.919831795309431,
|
| 120 |
+
"max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 4.792952954811314,
|
| 121 |
+
"max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 2.241410870035027,
|
| 122 |
+
"max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 4.232918171092113,
|
| 123 |
+
"method_requested": "entropy",
|
| 124 |
+
"method_used": "entropy",
|
| 125 |
+
"negative_weight_count": 0,
|
| 126 |
+
"negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
|
| 127 |
+
"negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 128 |
+
"oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 41694,
|
| 129 |
+
"oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 76.2859561690355,
|
| 130 |
+
"oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 10027,
|
| 131 |
+
"payroll_total_contributor_count": 41694,
|
| 132 |
+
"payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 387.226320129458,
|
| 133 |
+
"payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 34456,
|
| 134 |
+
"positive_clone_donor_family_count": 880,
|
| 135 |
+
"positive_clone_older_donor_count": 70,
|
| 136 |
+
"positive_clone_worker_donor_count": 100,
|
| 137 |
+
"positive_donor_family_count": 41694,
|
| 138 |
+
"positive_weight_count": 61694,
|
| 139 |
+
"positive_weight_pct": 100.0,
|
| 140 |
+
"ss_total_contributor_count": 41694,
|
| 141 |
+
"ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 142.20131213336128,
|
| 142 |
+
"ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 14535,
|
| 143 |
+
"support_blueprint": {
|
| 144 |
+
"base_weight_scale": 5.0,
|
| 145 |
+
"clone_household_count": 380,
|
| 146 |
+
"clone_total_prior_weight": 155726702.3402396,
|
| 147 |
+
"include_value_overrides": false,
|
| 148 |
+
"mode": "target_year_role_composite_blueprint",
|
| 149 |
+
"target_year": 2081,
|
| 150 |
+
"tob_donor_family_prior_regularization": {
|
| 151 |
+
"applied_max_multiplier": 1.2445371873582127,
|
| 152 |
+
"applied_median_multiplier": 1.0000064383927252,
|
| 153 |
+
"applied_min_multiplier": 0.1,
|
| 154 |
+
"contribution_target": 3.5987634687500005e-06,
|
| 155 |
+
"family_count": 500,
|
| 156 |
+
"max_weight_scale_multiplier": 10.0,
|
| 157 |
+
"min_weight_scale_multiplier": 0.1,
|
| 158 |
+
"mode": "equal_contribution",
|
| 159 |
+
"score_mode": "hi_tob"
|
| 160 |
+
}
|
| 161 |
+
},
|
| 162 |
+
"top_100_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 78.01323119706574,
|
| 163 |
+
"top_100_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 99.99999999999997,
|
| 164 |
+
"top_100_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 100.0,
|
| 165 |
+
"top_100_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 33.568840301098085,
|
| 166 |
+
"top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 80.87676636027953,
|
| 167 |
+
"top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 78.1229470176559,
|
| 168 |
+
"top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 37.539392177347885,
|
| 169 |
+
"top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 61.15896717252828,
|
| 170 |
+
"top_100_weight_share_pct": 33.56884030109809,
|
| 171 |
+
"top_10_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 34.876910039961906,
|
| 172 |
+
"top_10_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 45.014794706676085,
|
| 173 |
+
"top_10_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 37.557231894859775,
|
| 174 |
+
"top_10_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 8.94776451318999,
|
| 175 |
+
"top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 30.498416782683336,
|
| 176 |
+
"top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 28.963735653919116,
|
| 177 |
+
"top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 9.57398082253103,
|
| 178 |
+
"top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 18.61931387517079,
|
| 179 |
+
"top_10_weight_share_pct": 8.94776451318999,
|
| 180 |
+
"validation_issues": [],
|
| 181 |
+
"validation_passed": true
|
| 182 |
+
},
|
| 183 |
+
"contract_version": 1,
|
| 184 |
+
"policyengine_us": {
|
| 185 |
+
"package_dir": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policyengine-us-data-crfb-pin/.venv/lib/python3.14/site-packages/policyengine_us",
|
| 186 |
+
"package_file": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policyengine-us-data-crfb-pin/.venv/lib/python3.14/site-packages/policyengine_us/__init__.py",
|
| 187 |
+
"package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
|
| 188 |
+
"package_mtime_ns": 1778950525391246940,
|
| 189 |
+
"package_size": 498,
|
| 190 |
+
"package_tree_file_count": 13229,
|
| 191 |
+
"package_tree_sha256": "22d87cadef959eba850e557b5552733353999e8b63570ca0cc448a98d4af78e9",
|
| 192 |
+
"package_tree_size": 20314316,
|
| 193 |
+
"version": "1.691.12"
|
| 194 |
+
},
|
| 195 |
+
"profile": {
|
| 196 |
+
"allow_greg_fallback": false,
|
| 197 |
+
"approximate_windows": [
|
| 198 |
+
{
|
| 199 |
+
"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 200 |
+
"end_year": 2078,
|
| 201 |
+
"max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
|
| 202 |
+
"max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
|
| 203 |
+
"max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 204 |
+
"max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
|
| 205 |
+
"max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
|
| 206 |
+
"min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
|
| 207 |
+
"min_positive_household_count": 1000,
|
| 208 |
+
"start_year": 2075
|
| 209 |
+
},
|
| 210 |
+
{
|
| 211 |
+
"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 212 |
+
"end_year": 2085,
|
| 213 |
+
"max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
|
| 214 |
+
"max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
|
| 215 |
+
"max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 216 |
+
"max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
|
| 217 |
+
"max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
|
| 218 |
+
"min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
|
| 219 |
+
"min_positive_household_count": 1000,
|
| 220 |
+
"start_year": 2079
|
| 221 |
+
},
|
| 222 |
+
{
|
| 223 |
+
"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 224 |
+
"end_year": 2095,
|
| 225 |
+
"max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
|
| 226 |
+
"max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
|
| 227 |
+
"max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 228 |
+
"max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
|
| 229 |
+
"max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
|
| 230 |
+
"min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
|
| 231 |
+
"min_positive_household_count": 1000,
|
| 232 |
+
"start_year": 2086
|
| 233 |
+
},
|
| 234 |
+
{
|
| 235 |
+
"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 236 |
+
"end_year": null,
|
| 237 |
+
"max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
|
| 238 |
+
"max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
|
| 239 |
+
"max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 240 |
+
"max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
|
| 241 |
+
"max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
|
| 242 |
+
"min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
|
| 243 |
+
"min_positive_household_count": 1000,
|
| 244 |
+
"start_year": 2096
|
| 245 |
+
}
|
| 246 |
+
],
|
| 247 |
+
"benchmark_tob": false,
|
| 248 |
+
"calibration_method": "entropy",
|
| 249 |
+
"description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
|
| 250 |
+
"max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
|
| 251 |
+
"max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
|
| 252 |
+
"max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 253 |
+
"max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
|
| 254 |
+
"max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
|
| 255 |
+
"min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
|
| 256 |
+
"min_positive_household_count": 1000,
|
| 257 |
+
"name": "ss-payroll-tob",
|
| 258 |
+
"use_greg": false,
|
| 259 |
+
"use_h6_reform": false,
|
| 260 |
+
"use_payroll": true,
|
| 261 |
+
"use_ss": true,
|
| 262 |
+
"use_tob": true
|
| 263 |
+
},
|
| 264 |
+
"support_augmentation": {
|
| 265 |
+
"activation_start_year": 2075,
|
| 266 |
+
"blueprint_base_weight_scale": 5.0,
|
| 267 |
+
"clone_weight_scale": 0.1,
|
| 268 |
+
"donors_per_target": 5,
|
| 269 |
+
"family": "targeted_donor",
|
| 270 |
+
"max_distance_for_clone": 3.0,
|
| 271 |
+
"name": "donor-backed-composite-v1",
|
| 272 |
+
"non_target_income_sanitizer_mode": "none",
|
| 273 |
+
"report_file": "support_augmentation_report_2081.json",
|
| 274 |
+
"report_summary": {
|
| 275 |
+
"augmented_household_count": 61694,
|
| 276 |
+
"augmented_person_count": 153394,
|
| 277 |
+
"base_household_count": 41314,
|
| 278 |
+
"base_person_count": 101384,
|
| 279 |
+
"clone_household_count": 20380,
|
| 280 |
+
"role_composite_clone_count": 380,
|
| 281 |
+
"skipped_target_count": 0,
|
| 282 |
+
"successful_target_count": 380,
|
| 283 |
+
"tob_donor_clone_count": 20000
|
| 284 |
+
},
|
| 285 |
+
"sanitize_clone_non_target_income": false,
|
| 286 |
+
"sanitize_worker_non_target_income": false,
|
| 287 |
+
"support_solve_max_constraint_error_pct": 5.0,
|
| 288 |
+
"target_year": 2081,
|
| 289 |
+
"target_year_strategy": "run_year",
|
| 290 |
+
"tob_donor_clones_per_source": 40,
|
| 291 |
+
"tob_donor_max_weight_scale_multiplier": 10.0,
|
| 292 |
+
"tob_donor_min_weight_scale_multiplier": 0.1,
|
| 293 |
+
"tob_donor_top_n_sources": 500,
|
| 294 |
+
"tob_donor_weight_scale": 0.2,
|
| 295 |
+
"tob_donor_weighting_mode": "equal_contribution",
|
| 296 |
+
"top_n_targets": 20
|
| 297 |
+
},
|
| 298 |
+
"target_source": {
|
| 299 |
+
"baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
|
| 300 |
+
"description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
|
| 301 |
+
"file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
|
| 302 |
+
"name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
|
| 303 |
+
"not_law": false,
|
| 304 |
+
"notes": [
|
| 305 |
+
"Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
|
| 306 |
+
],
|
| 307 |
+
"sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
|
| 308 |
+
"source_urls": [
|
| 309 |
+
"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
|
| 310 |
+
"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
|
| 311 |
+
],
|
| 312 |
+
"type": "trustees_current_law"
|
| 313 |
+
},
|
| 314 |
+
"tax_assumption": {
|
| 315 |
+
"description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
|
| 316 |
+
"economic_assumption": "trustees-2025-nawi-v1",
|
| 317 |
+
"end_year": 2100,
|
| 318 |
+
"income_uprating_assumption": "trustees-2025-soi-income-nawi-v1",
|
| 319 |
+
"name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
|
| 320 |
+
"not_default_current_law": true,
|
| 321 |
+
"parameter_groups": [
|
| 322 |
+
"all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
|
| 323 |
+
],
|
| 324 |
+
"projection_base_year": 2026,
|
| 325 |
+
"source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
|
| 326 |
+
"start_year": 2035,
|
| 327 |
+
"uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating"
|
| 328 |
+
},
|
| 329 |
+
"year": 2081
|
| 330 |
+
}
|
staging/crfb-longrun-20260517/long_term/2082.h5.metadata.json
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,330 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
{
|
| 2 |
+
"base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5",
|
| 3 |
+
"base_dataset_snapshot": {
|
| 4 |
+
"requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5",
|
| 5 |
+
"resolved_file_sha256": "96965b0d9931d36beb29486b25fffee8b630e3b62c9376e7265976e02f7ab3ca",
|
| 6 |
+
"resolved_mtime_ns": 1778905303378497095,
|
| 7 |
+
"resolved_path": "/Users/maxghenis/.cache/huggingface/hub/models--policyengine--policyengine-us-data/blobs/96965b0d9931d36beb29486b25fffee8b630e3b62c9376e7265976e02f7ab3ca",
|
| 8 |
+
"resolved_size": 106261154
|
| 9 |
+
},
|
| 10 |
+
"calibration_audit": {
|
| 11 |
+
"age_bucket_count": 18,
|
| 12 |
+
"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 13 |
+
"age_max_pct_error": 9.05254751199997e-08,
|
| 14 |
+
"approximate_entropy_error": null,
|
| 15 |
+
"approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
|
| 16 |
+
"approximate_solution_used": false,
|
| 17 |
+
"approximation_method": null,
|
| 18 |
+
"baseline_weight_sum": 929095014.5428685,
|
| 19 |
+
"calibrated_weight_sum": 242487823.1553141,
|
| 20 |
+
"calibration_quality": "exact",
|
| 21 |
+
"clone_donor_family_count": 920,
|
| 22 |
+
"clone_donor_family_effective_sample_size": 47.38650319668002,
|
| 23 |
+
"clone_older_donor_count": 75,
|
| 24 |
+
"clone_older_donor_effective_sample_size": 20.395925692673252,
|
| 25 |
+
"clone_worker_donor_count": 98,
|
| 26 |
+
"clone_worker_donor_effective_sample_size": 39.77239188203027,
|
| 27 |
+
"constraint_provenance": {
|
| 28 |
+
"age_targets": {
|
| 29 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 30 |
+
"scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
|
| 31 |
+
"source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
|
| 32 |
+
},
|
| 33 |
+
"hi_tob": {
|
| 34 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 35 |
+
"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
|
| 36 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 37 |
+
},
|
| 38 |
+
"income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
|
| 39 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 40 |
+
"scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
|
| 41 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
|
| 42 |
+
},
|
| 43 |
+
"income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
|
| 44 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 45 |
+
"scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
|
| 46 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
|
| 47 |
+
},
|
| 48 |
+
"oasdi_tob": {
|
| 49 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 50 |
+
"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
|
| 51 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 52 |
+
},
|
| 53 |
+
"payroll_total": {
|
| 54 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 55 |
+
"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
|
| 56 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 57 |
+
},
|
| 58 |
+
"ss_total": {
|
| 59 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 60 |
+
"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
|
| 61 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 62 |
+
}
|
| 63 |
+
},
|
| 64 |
+
"constraints": {
|
| 65 |
+
"hi_tob": {
|
| 66 |
+
"achieved": 907958000550.76,
|
| 67 |
+
"error": 550.760009765625,
|
| 68 |
+
"pct_error": 6.065919456248252e-08,
|
| 69 |
+
"target": 907958000000.0
|
| 70 |
+
},
|
| 71 |
+
"income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
|
| 72 |
+
"achieved": 13665960500922.404,
|
| 73 |
+
"error": 40737.02734375,
|
| 74 |
+
"pct_error": 2.980912132918421e-07,
|
| 75 |
+
"target": 13665960460185.377
|
| 76 |
+
},
|
| 77 |
+
"income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
|
| 78 |
+
"achieved": 7420978269106.039,
|
| 79 |
+
"error": 88137.517578125,
|
| 80 |
+
"pct_error": 1.187680591814138e-06,
|
| 81 |
+
"target": 7420978180968.521
|
| 82 |
+
},
|
| 83 |
+
"oasdi_tob": {
|
| 84 |
+
"achieved": 1078113500841.2323,
|
| 85 |
+
"error": 841.232421875,
|
| 86 |
+
"pct_error": 7.80281873731291e-08,
|
| 87 |
+
"target": 1078113499999.9999
|
| 88 |
+
},
|
| 89 |
+
"payroll_total": {
|
| 90 |
+
"achieved": 93749000013437.25,
|
| 91 |
+
"error": 13437.25,
|
| 92 |
+
"pct_error": 1.4333219554341914e-08,
|
| 93 |
+
"target": 93749000000000.0
|
| 94 |
+
},
|
| 95 |
+
"ss_total": {
|
| 96 |
+
"achieved": 17766183304850.3,
|
| 97 |
+
"error": 4850.30078125,
|
| 98 |
+
"pct_error": 2.7300747151753188e-08,
|
| 99 |
+
"target": 17766183300000.0
|
| 100 |
+
}
|
| 101 |
+
},
|
| 102 |
+
"donor_family_count": 41734,
|
| 103 |
+
"donor_family_effective_sample_size": 485.4749425509788,
|
| 104 |
+
"effective_sample_size": 485.95197594525047,
|
| 105 |
+
"entropy_error": null,
|
| 106 |
+
"fell_back_to_ipf": false,
|
| 107 |
+
"greg_attempted": false,
|
| 108 |
+
"greg_error": null,
|
| 109 |
+
"hi_tob_contributor_count": 41734,
|
| 110 |
+
"hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 56.39122474558526,
|
| 111 |
+
"hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 9311,
|
| 112 |
+
"largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
|
| 113 |
+
"lp_fallback_used": false,
|
| 114 |
+
"max_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 5.236456918702869,
|
| 115 |
+
"max_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 9.462761691117327,
|
| 116 |
+
"max_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 5.276853760995586,
|
| 117 |
+
"max_constraint_pct_error": 1.187680591814138e-06,
|
| 118 |
+
"max_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 1.4601538544840225,
|
| 119 |
+
"max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 6.585560515418762,
|
| 120 |
+
"max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 5.213236027428734,
|
| 121 |
+
"max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 2.281610544454446,
|
| 122 |
+
"max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 4.079330567941872,
|
| 123 |
+
"method_requested": "entropy",
|
| 124 |
+
"method_used": "entropy",
|
| 125 |
+
"negative_weight_count": 0,
|
| 126 |
+
"negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
|
| 127 |
+
"negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 128 |
+
"oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 41734,
|
| 129 |
+
"oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 61.85966726644874,
|
| 130 |
+
"oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 10105,
|
| 131 |
+
"payroll_total_contributor_count": 41734,
|
| 132 |
+
"payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 382.1895875584071,
|
| 133 |
+
"payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 34515,
|
| 134 |
+
"positive_clone_donor_family_count": 920,
|
| 135 |
+
"positive_clone_older_donor_count": 75,
|
| 136 |
+
"positive_clone_worker_donor_count": 98,
|
| 137 |
+
"positive_donor_family_count": 41734,
|
| 138 |
+
"positive_weight_count": 61734,
|
| 139 |
+
"positive_weight_pct": 100.0,
|
| 140 |
+
"ss_total_contributor_count": 41734,
|
| 141 |
+
"ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 123.57229758480163,
|
| 142 |
+
"ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 14585,
|
| 143 |
+
"support_blueprint": {
|
| 144 |
+
"base_weight_scale": 5.0,
|
| 145 |
+
"clone_household_count": 420,
|
| 146 |
+
"clone_total_prior_weight": 155991059.0862063,
|
| 147 |
+
"include_value_overrides": false,
|
| 148 |
+
"mode": "target_year_role_composite_blueprint",
|
| 149 |
+
"target_year": 2082,
|
| 150 |
+
"tob_donor_family_prior_regularization": {
|
| 151 |
+
"applied_max_multiplier": 1.2356020942408377,
|
| 152 |
+
"applied_median_multiplier": 1.0,
|
| 153 |
+
"applied_min_multiplier": 0.1,
|
| 154 |
+
"contribution_target": 3.715584e-06,
|
| 155 |
+
"family_count": 500,
|
| 156 |
+
"max_weight_scale_multiplier": 10.0,
|
| 157 |
+
"min_weight_scale_multiplier": 0.1,
|
| 158 |
+
"mode": "equal_contribution",
|
| 159 |
+
"score_mode": "hi_tob"
|
| 160 |
+
}
|
| 161 |
+
},
|
| 162 |
+
"top_100_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 87.82835874802691,
|
| 163 |
+
"top_100_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 100.0,
|
| 164 |
+
"top_100_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 100.00000000000003,
|
| 165 |
+
"top_100_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 34.29676772692105,
|
| 166 |
+
"top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 84.07684868320715,
|
| 167 |
+
"top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 81.28261557949756,
|
| 168 |
+
"top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 38.39231694552106,
|
| 169 |
+
"top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 65.59374128766885,
|
| 170 |
+
"top_100_weight_share_pct": 34.29676772692105,
|
| 171 |
+
"top_10_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 36.94613507897163,
|
| 172 |
+
"top_10_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 64.24141909281232,
|
| 173 |
+
"top_10_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 37.746240326758326,
|
| 174 |
+
"top_10_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 8.663246124985067,
|
| 175 |
+
"top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 33.65544920162089,
|
| 176 |
+
"top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 33.01295014196569,
|
| 177 |
+
"top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 9.69121225404856,
|
| 178 |
+
"top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 20.510272321155217,
|
| 179 |
+
"top_10_weight_share_pct": 8.663246124985067,
|
| 180 |
+
"validation_issues": [],
|
| 181 |
+
"validation_passed": true
|
| 182 |
+
},
|
| 183 |
+
"contract_version": 1,
|
| 184 |
+
"policyengine_us": {
|
| 185 |
+
"package_dir": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policyengine-us-data-crfb-pin/.venv/lib/python3.14/site-packages/policyengine_us",
|
| 186 |
+
"package_file": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policyengine-us-data-crfb-pin/.venv/lib/python3.14/site-packages/policyengine_us/__init__.py",
|
| 187 |
+
"package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
|
| 188 |
+
"package_mtime_ns": 1778950525391246940,
|
| 189 |
+
"package_size": 498,
|
| 190 |
+
"package_tree_file_count": 13229,
|
| 191 |
+
"package_tree_sha256": "22d87cadef959eba850e557b5552733353999e8b63570ca0cc448a98d4af78e9",
|
| 192 |
+
"package_tree_size": 20314316,
|
| 193 |
+
"version": "1.691.12"
|
| 194 |
+
},
|
| 195 |
+
"profile": {
|
| 196 |
+
"allow_greg_fallback": false,
|
| 197 |
+
"approximate_windows": [
|
| 198 |
+
{
|
| 199 |
+
"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 200 |
+
"end_year": 2078,
|
| 201 |
+
"max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
|
| 202 |
+
"max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
|
| 203 |
+
"max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 204 |
+
"max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
|
| 205 |
+
"max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
|
| 206 |
+
"min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
|
| 207 |
+
"min_positive_household_count": 1000,
|
| 208 |
+
"start_year": 2075
|
| 209 |
+
},
|
| 210 |
+
{
|
| 211 |
+
"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 212 |
+
"end_year": 2085,
|
| 213 |
+
"max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
|
| 214 |
+
"max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
|
| 215 |
+
"max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 216 |
+
"max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
|
| 217 |
+
"max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
|
| 218 |
+
"min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
|
| 219 |
+
"min_positive_household_count": 1000,
|
| 220 |
+
"start_year": 2079
|
| 221 |
+
},
|
| 222 |
+
{
|
| 223 |
+
"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 224 |
+
"end_year": 2095,
|
| 225 |
+
"max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
|
| 226 |
+
"max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
|
| 227 |
+
"max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 228 |
+
"max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
|
| 229 |
+
"max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
|
| 230 |
+
"min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
|
| 231 |
+
"min_positive_household_count": 1000,
|
| 232 |
+
"start_year": 2086
|
| 233 |
+
},
|
| 234 |
+
{
|
| 235 |
+
"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 236 |
+
"end_year": null,
|
| 237 |
+
"max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
|
| 238 |
+
"max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
|
| 239 |
+
"max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 240 |
+
"max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
|
| 241 |
+
"max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
|
| 242 |
+
"min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
|
| 243 |
+
"min_positive_household_count": 1000,
|
| 244 |
+
"start_year": 2096
|
| 245 |
+
}
|
| 246 |
+
],
|
| 247 |
+
"benchmark_tob": false,
|
| 248 |
+
"calibration_method": "entropy",
|
| 249 |
+
"description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
|
| 250 |
+
"max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
|
| 251 |
+
"max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
|
| 252 |
+
"max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 253 |
+
"max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
|
| 254 |
+
"max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
|
| 255 |
+
"min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
|
| 256 |
+
"min_positive_household_count": 1000,
|
| 257 |
+
"name": "ss-payroll-tob",
|
| 258 |
+
"use_greg": false,
|
| 259 |
+
"use_h6_reform": false,
|
| 260 |
+
"use_payroll": true,
|
| 261 |
+
"use_ss": true,
|
| 262 |
+
"use_tob": true
|
| 263 |
+
},
|
| 264 |
+
"support_augmentation": {
|
| 265 |
+
"activation_start_year": 2075,
|
| 266 |
+
"blueprint_base_weight_scale": 5.0,
|
| 267 |
+
"clone_weight_scale": 0.1,
|
| 268 |
+
"donors_per_target": 5,
|
| 269 |
+
"family": "targeted_donor",
|
| 270 |
+
"max_distance_for_clone": 3.0,
|
| 271 |
+
"name": "donor-backed-composite-v1",
|
| 272 |
+
"non_target_income_sanitizer_mode": "none",
|
| 273 |
+
"report_file": "support_augmentation_report_2082.json",
|
| 274 |
+
"report_summary": {
|
| 275 |
+
"augmented_household_count": 61734,
|
| 276 |
+
"augmented_person_count": 153389,
|
| 277 |
+
"base_household_count": 41314,
|
| 278 |
+
"base_person_count": 101384,
|
| 279 |
+
"clone_household_count": 20420,
|
| 280 |
+
"role_composite_clone_count": 420,
|
| 281 |
+
"skipped_target_count": 0,
|
| 282 |
+
"successful_target_count": 420,
|
| 283 |
+
"tob_donor_clone_count": 20000
|
| 284 |
+
},
|
| 285 |
+
"sanitize_clone_non_target_income": false,
|
| 286 |
+
"sanitize_worker_non_target_income": false,
|
| 287 |
+
"support_solve_max_constraint_error_pct": 5.0,
|
| 288 |
+
"target_year": 2082,
|
| 289 |
+
"target_year_strategy": "run_year",
|
| 290 |
+
"tob_donor_clones_per_source": 40,
|
| 291 |
+
"tob_donor_max_weight_scale_multiplier": 10.0,
|
| 292 |
+
"tob_donor_min_weight_scale_multiplier": 0.1,
|
| 293 |
+
"tob_donor_top_n_sources": 500,
|
| 294 |
+
"tob_donor_weight_scale": 0.2,
|
| 295 |
+
"tob_donor_weighting_mode": "equal_contribution",
|
| 296 |
+
"top_n_targets": 20
|
| 297 |
+
},
|
| 298 |
+
"target_source": {
|
| 299 |
+
"baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
|
| 300 |
+
"description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
|
| 301 |
+
"file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
|
| 302 |
+
"name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
|
| 303 |
+
"not_law": false,
|
| 304 |
+
"notes": [
|
| 305 |
+
"Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
|
| 306 |
+
],
|
| 307 |
+
"sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
|
| 308 |
+
"source_urls": [
|
| 309 |
+
"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
|
| 310 |
+
"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
|
| 311 |
+
],
|
| 312 |
+
"type": "trustees_current_law"
|
| 313 |
+
},
|
| 314 |
+
"tax_assumption": {
|
| 315 |
+
"description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
|
| 316 |
+
"economic_assumption": "trustees-2025-nawi-v1",
|
| 317 |
+
"end_year": 2100,
|
| 318 |
+
"income_uprating_assumption": "trustees-2025-soi-income-nawi-v1",
|
| 319 |
+
"name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
|
| 320 |
+
"not_default_current_law": true,
|
| 321 |
+
"parameter_groups": [
|
| 322 |
+
"all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
|
| 323 |
+
],
|
| 324 |
+
"projection_base_year": 2026,
|
| 325 |
+
"source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
|
| 326 |
+
"start_year": 2035,
|
| 327 |
+
"uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating"
|
| 328 |
+
},
|
| 329 |
+
"year": 2082
|
| 330 |
+
}
|
staging/crfb-longrun-20260517/long_term/2083.h5.metadata.json
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,330 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
{
|
| 2 |
+
"base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5",
|
| 3 |
+
"base_dataset_snapshot": {
|
| 4 |
+
"requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5",
|
| 5 |
+
"resolved_file_sha256": "96965b0d9931d36beb29486b25fffee8b630e3b62c9376e7265976e02f7ab3ca",
|
| 6 |
+
"resolved_mtime_ns": 1778905303378497095,
|
| 7 |
+
"resolved_path": "/Users/maxghenis/.cache/huggingface/hub/models--policyengine--policyengine-us-data/blobs/96965b0d9931d36beb29486b25fffee8b630e3b62c9376e7265976e02f7ab3ca",
|
| 8 |
+
"resolved_size": 106261154
|
| 9 |
+
},
|
| 10 |
+
"calibration_audit": {
|
| 11 |
+
"age_bucket_count": 18,
|
| 12 |
+
"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 13 |
+
"age_max_pct_error": 2.8758215750384515e-10,
|
| 14 |
+
"approximate_entropy_error": null,
|
| 15 |
+
"approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
|
| 16 |
+
"approximate_solution_used": false,
|
| 17 |
+
"approximation_method": null,
|
| 18 |
+
"baseline_weight_sum": 928921439.5594263,
|
| 19 |
+
"calibrated_weight_sum": 242153405.9489861,
|
| 20 |
+
"calibration_quality": "exact",
|
| 21 |
+
"clone_donor_family_count": 880,
|
| 22 |
+
"clone_donor_family_effective_sample_size": 53.619773438876464,
|
| 23 |
+
"clone_older_donor_count": 68,
|
| 24 |
+
"clone_older_donor_effective_sample_size": 26.209820427345427,
|
| 25 |
+
"clone_worker_donor_count": 100,
|
| 26 |
+
"clone_worker_donor_effective_sample_size": 39.058055237530816,
|
| 27 |
+
"constraint_provenance": {
|
| 28 |
+
"age_targets": {
|
| 29 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 30 |
+
"scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
|
| 31 |
+
"source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
|
| 32 |
+
},
|
| 33 |
+
"hi_tob": {
|
| 34 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 35 |
+
"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
|
| 36 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 37 |
+
},
|
| 38 |
+
"income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
|
| 39 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 40 |
+
"scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
|
| 41 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
|
| 42 |
+
},
|
| 43 |
+
"income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
|
| 44 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 45 |
+
"scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
|
| 46 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
|
| 47 |
+
},
|
| 48 |
+
"oasdi_tob": {
|
| 49 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 50 |
+
"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
|
| 51 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 52 |
+
},
|
| 53 |
+
"payroll_total": {
|
| 54 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 55 |
+
"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
|
| 56 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 57 |
+
},
|
| 58 |
+
"ss_total": {
|
| 59 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 60 |
+
"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
|
| 61 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 62 |
+
}
|
| 63 |
+
},
|
| 64 |
+
"constraints": {
|
| 65 |
+
"hi_tob": {
|
| 66 |
+
"achieved": 943051000003.5972,
|
| 67 |
+
"error": 3.59716796875,
|
| 68 |
+
"pct_error": 3.814393886173706e-10,
|
| 69 |
+
"target": 943051000000.0
|
| 70 |
+
},
|
| 71 |
+
"income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
|
| 72 |
+
"achieved": 13864875870633.89,
|
| 73 |
+
"error": 197.212890625,
|
| 74 |
+
"pct_error": 1.4223920391924052e-09,
|
| 75 |
+
"target": 13864875870436.678
|
| 76 |
+
},
|
| 77 |
+
"income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
|
| 78 |
+
"achieved": 7640524632727.341,
|
| 79 |
+
"error": 562.98828125,
|
| 80 |
+
"pct_error": 7.368450575762633e-09,
|
| 81 |
+
"target": 7640524632164.353
|
| 82 |
+
},
|
| 83 |
+
"oasdi_tob": {
|
| 84 |
+
"achieved": 1119881500005.643,
|
| 85 |
+
"error": 5.64306640625,
|
| 86 |
+
"pct_error": 5.038985291077673e-10,
|
| 87 |
+
"target": 1119881500000.0
|
| 88 |
+
},
|
| 89 |
+
"payroll_total": {
|
| 90 |
+
"achieved": 97381000000035.98,
|
| 91 |
+
"error": 35.984375,
|
| 92 |
+
"pct_error": 3.695215185713846e-11,
|
| 93 |
+
"target": 97381000000000.0
|
| 94 |
+
},
|
| 95 |
+
"ss_total": {
|
| 96 |
+
"achieved": 18437989500030.883,
|
| 97 |
+
"error": 30.8828125,
|
| 98 |
+
"pct_error": 1.6749555313500966e-10,
|
| 99 |
+
"target": 18437989500000.0
|
| 100 |
+
}
|
| 101 |
+
},
|
| 102 |
+
"donor_family_count": 41694,
|
| 103 |
+
"donor_family_effective_sample_size": 486.7613840459201,
|
| 104 |
+
"effective_sample_size": 487.17421181613537,
|
| 105 |
+
"entropy_error": null,
|
| 106 |
+
"fell_back_to_ipf": false,
|
| 107 |
+
"greg_attempted": false,
|
| 108 |
+
"greg_error": null,
|
| 109 |
+
"hi_tob_contributor_count": 41694,
|
| 110 |
+
"hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 61.058889886036354,
|
| 111 |
+
"hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 9225,
|
| 112 |
+
"largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
|
| 113 |
+
"lp_fallback_used": false,
|
| 114 |
+
"max_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 5.1004031341773395,
|
| 115 |
+
"max_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 7.676334822178676,
|
| 116 |
+
"max_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 5.135004805512314,
|
| 117 |
+
"max_constraint_pct_error": 7.368450575762633e-09,
|
| 118 |
+
"max_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 1.537620309196583,
|
| 119 |
+
"max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 6.9406408956822885,
|
| 120 |
+
"max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 4.925971854242084,
|
| 121 |
+
"max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 2.3792186346088564,
|
| 122 |
+
"max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 4.355600137511126,
|
| 123 |
+
"method_requested": "entropy",
|
| 124 |
+
"method_used": "entropy",
|
| 125 |
+
"negative_weight_count": 0,
|
| 126 |
+
"negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
|
| 127 |
+
"negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 128 |
+
"oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 41694,
|
| 129 |
+
"oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 71.81889475755477,
|
| 130 |
+
"oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 10037,
|
| 131 |
+
"payroll_total_contributor_count": 41694,
|
| 132 |
+
"payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 342.04449994618994,
|
| 133 |
+
"payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 34475,
|
| 134 |
+
"positive_clone_donor_family_count": 880,
|
| 135 |
+
"positive_clone_older_donor_count": 68,
|
| 136 |
+
"positive_clone_worker_donor_count": 100,
|
| 137 |
+
"positive_donor_family_count": 41694,
|
| 138 |
+
"positive_weight_count": 61694,
|
| 139 |
+
"positive_weight_pct": 100.0,
|
| 140 |
+
"ss_total_contributor_count": 41694,
|
| 141 |
+
"ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 133.29545585400626,
|
| 142 |
+
"ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 14535,
|
| 143 |
+
"support_blueprint": {
|
| 144 |
+
"base_weight_scale": 5.0,
|
| 145 |
+
"clone_household_count": 380,
|
| 146 |
+
"clone_total_prior_weight": 155817480.85764965,
|
| 147 |
+
"include_value_overrides": false,
|
| 148 |
+
"mode": "target_year_role_composite_blueprint",
|
| 149 |
+
"target_year": 2083,
|
| 150 |
+
"tob_donor_family_prior_regularization": {
|
| 151 |
+
"applied_max_multiplier": 1.2357381447095026,
|
| 152 |
+
"applied_median_multiplier": 1.0000065232699245,
|
| 153 |
+
"applied_min_multiplier": 0.1,
|
| 154 |
+
"contribution_target": 3.852688e-06,
|
| 155 |
+
"family_count": 500,
|
| 156 |
+
"max_weight_scale_multiplier": 10.0,
|
| 157 |
+
"min_weight_scale_multiplier": 0.1,
|
| 158 |
+
"mode": "equal_contribution",
|
| 159 |
+
"score_mode": "hi_tob"
|
| 160 |
+
}
|
| 161 |
+
},
|
| 162 |
+
"top_100_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 81.84520520918431,
|
| 163 |
+
"top_100_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 100.00000000000004,
|
| 164 |
+
"top_100_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 100.0,
|
| 165 |
+
"top_100_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 33.75772325542839,
|
| 166 |
+
"top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 81.79399631920167,
|
| 167 |
+
"top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 78.9838444513497,
|
| 168 |
+
"top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 40.48056749873377,
|
| 169 |
+
"top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 62.13606321389234,
|
| 170 |
+
"top_100_weight_share_pct": 33.75772325542839,
|
| 171 |
+
"top_10_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 37.7912911223509,
|
| 172 |
+
"top_10_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 48.26374058542306,
|
| 173 |
+
"top_10_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 38.126400202526675,
|
| 174 |
+
"top_10_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 8.853111622054497,
|
| 175 |
+
"top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 31.474625793223794,
|
| 176 |
+
"top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 29.987503791026587,
|
| 177 |
+
"top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 9.859486075509752,
|
| 178 |
+
"top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 19.344441496324226,
|
| 179 |
+
"top_10_weight_share_pct": 8.853111622054497,
|
| 180 |
+
"validation_issues": [],
|
| 181 |
+
"validation_passed": true
|
| 182 |
+
},
|
| 183 |
+
"contract_version": 1,
|
| 184 |
+
"policyengine_us": {
|
| 185 |
+
"package_dir": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policyengine-us-data-crfb-pin/.venv/lib/python3.14/site-packages/policyengine_us",
|
| 186 |
+
"package_file": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policyengine-us-data-crfb-pin/.venv/lib/python3.14/site-packages/policyengine_us/__init__.py",
|
| 187 |
+
"package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
|
| 188 |
+
"package_mtime_ns": 1778950525391246940,
|
| 189 |
+
"package_size": 498,
|
| 190 |
+
"package_tree_file_count": 13229,
|
| 191 |
+
"package_tree_sha256": "22d87cadef959eba850e557b5552733353999e8b63570ca0cc448a98d4af78e9",
|
| 192 |
+
"package_tree_size": 20314316,
|
| 193 |
+
"version": "1.691.12"
|
| 194 |
+
},
|
| 195 |
+
"profile": {
|
| 196 |
+
"allow_greg_fallback": false,
|
| 197 |
+
"approximate_windows": [
|
| 198 |
+
{
|
| 199 |
+
"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 200 |
+
"end_year": 2078,
|
| 201 |
+
"max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
|
| 202 |
+
"max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
|
| 203 |
+
"max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 204 |
+
"max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
|
| 205 |
+
"max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
|
| 206 |
+
"min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
|
| 207 |
+
"min_positive_household_count": 1000,
|
| 208 |
+
"start_year": 2075
|
| 209 |
+
},
|
| 210 |
+
{
|
| 211 |
+
"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 212 |
+
"end_year": 2085,
|
| 213 |
+
"max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
|
| 214 |
+
"max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
|
| 215 |
+
"max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 216 |
+
"max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
|
| 217 |
+
"max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
|
| 218 |
+
"min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
|
| 219 |
+
"min_positive_household_count": 1000,
|
| 220 |
+
"start_year": 2079
|
| 221 |
+
},
|
| 222 |
+
{
|
| 223 |
+
"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 224 |
+
"end_year": 2095,
|
| 225 |
+
"max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
|
| 226 |
+
"max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
|
| 227 |
+
"max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 228 |
+
"max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
|
| 229 |
+
"max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
|
| 230 |
+
"min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
|
| 231 |
+
"min_positive_household_count": 1000,
|
| 232 |
+
"start_year": 2086
|
| 233 |
+
},
|
| 234 |
+
{
|
| 235 |
+
"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 236 |
+
"end_year": null,
|
| 237 |
+
"max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
|
| 238 |
+
"max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
|
| 239 |
+
"max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 240 |
+
"max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
|
| 241 |
+
"max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
|
| 242 |
+
"min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
|
| 243 |
+
"min_positive_household_count": 1000,
|
| 244 |
+
"start_year": 2096
|
| 245 |
+
}
|
| 246 |
+
],
|
| 247 |
+
"benchmark_tob": false,
|
| 248 |
+
"calibration_method": "entropy",
|
| 249 |
+
"description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
|
| 250 |
+
"max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
|
| 251 |
+
"max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
|
| 252 |
+
"max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 253 |
+
"max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
|
| 254 |
+
"max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
|
| 255 |
+
"min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
|
| 256 |
+
"min_positive_household_count": 1000,
|
| 257 |
+
"name": "ss-payroll-tob",
|
| 258 |
+
"use_greg": false,
|
| 259 |
+
"use_h6_reform": false,
|
| 260 |
+
"use_payroll": true,
|
| 261 |
+
"use_ss": true,
|
| 262 |
+
"use_tob": true
|
| 263 |
+
},
|
| 264 |
+
"support_augmentation": {
|
| 265 |
+
"activation_start_year": 2075,
|
| 266 |
+
"blueprint_base_weight_scale": 5.0,
|
| 267 |
+
"clone_weight_scale": 0.1,
|
| 268 |
+
"donors_per_target": 5,
|
| 269 |
+
"family": "targeted_donor",
|
| 270 |
+
"max_distance_for_clone": 3.0,
|
| 271 |
+
"name": "donor-backed-composite-v1",
|
| 272 |
+
"non_target_income_sanitizer_mode": "none",
|
| 273 |
+
"report_file": "support_augmentation_report_2083.json",
|
| 274 |
+
"report_summary": {
|
| 275 |
+
"augmented_household_count": 61694,
|
| 276 |
+
"augmented_person_count": 153099,
|
| 277 |
+
"base_household_count": 41314,
|
| 278 |
+
"base_person_count": 101384,
|
| 279 |
+
"clone_household_count": 20380,
|
| 280 |
+
"role_composite_clone_count": 380,
|
| 281 |
+
"skipped_target_count": 0,
|
| 282 |
+
"successful_target_count": 380,
|
| 283 |
+
"tob_donor_clone_count": 20000
|
| 284 |
+
},
|
| 285 |
+
"sanitize_clone_non_target_income": false,
|
| 286 |
+
"sanitize_worker_non_target_income": false,
|
| 287 |
+
"support_solve_max_constraint_error_pct": 5.0,
|
| 288 |
+
"target_year": 2083,
|
| 289 |
+
"target_year_strategy": "run_year",
|
| 290 |
+
"tob_donor_clones_per_source": 40,
|
| 291 |
+
"tob_donor_max_weight_scale_multiplier": 10.0,
|
| 292 |
+
"tob_donor_min_weight_scale_multiplier": 0.1,
|
| 293 |
+
"tob_donor_top_n_sources": 500,
|
| 294 |
+
"tob_donor_weight_scale": 0.2,
|
| 295 |
+
"tob_donor_weighting_mode": "equal_contribution",
|
| 296 |
+
"top_n_targets": 20
|
| 297 |
+
},
|
| 298 |
+
"target_source": {
|
| 299 |
+
"baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
|
| 300 |
+
"description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
|
| 301 |
+
"file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
|
| 302 |
+
"name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
|
| 303 |
+
"not_law": false,
|
| 304 |
+
"notes": [
|
| 305 |
+
"Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
|
| 306 |
+
],
|
| 307 |
+
"sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
|
| 308 |
+
"source_urls": [
|
| 309 |
+
"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
|
| 310 |
+
"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
|
| 311 |
+
],
|
| 312 |
+
"type": "trustees_current_law"
|
| 313 |
+
},
|
| 314 |
+
"tax_assumption": {
|
| 315 |
+
"description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
|
| 316 |
+
"economic_assumption": "trustees-2025-nawi-v1",
|
| 317 |
+
"end_year": 2100,
|
| 318 |
+
"income_uprating_assumption": "trustees-2025-soi-income-nawi-v1",
|
| 319 |
+
"name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
|
| 320 |
+
"not_default_current_law": true,
|
| 321 |
+
"parameter_groups": [
|
| 322 |
+
"all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
|
| 323 |
+
],
|
| 324 |
+
"projection_base_year": 2026,
|
| 325 |
+
"source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
|
| 326 |
+
"start_year": 2035,
|
| 327 |
+
"uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating"
|
| 328 |
+
},
|
| 329 |
+
"year": 2083
|
| 330 |
+
}
|
staging/crfb-longrun-20260517/long_term/2084.h5.metadata.json
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,330 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
{
|
| 2 |
+
"base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5",
|
| 3 |
+
"base_dataset_snapshot": {
|
| 4 |
+
"requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5",
|
| 5 |
+
"resolved_file_sha256": "96965b0d9931d36beb29486b25fffee8b630e3b62c9376e7265976e02f7ab3ca",
|
| 6 |
+
"resolved_mtime_ns": 1778905303378497095,
|
| 7 |
+
"resolved_path": "/Users/maxghenis/.cache/huggingface/hub/models--policyengine--policyengine-us-data/blobs/96965b0d9931d36beb29486b25fffee8b630e3b62c9376e7265976e02f7ab3ca",
|
| 8 |
+
"resolved_size": 106261154
|
| 9 |
+
},
|
| 10 |
+
"calibration_audit": {
|
| 11 |
+
"age_bucket_count": 18,
|
| 12 |
+
"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 13 |
+
"age_max_pct_error": 1.0047145270256896e-09,
|
| 14 |
+
"approximate_entropy_error": null,
|
| 15 |
+
"approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
|
| 16 |
+
"approximate_solution_used": false,
|
| 17 |
+
"approximation_method": null,
|
| 18 |
+
"baseline_weight_sum": 928890953.2662833,
|
| 19 |
+
"calibrated_weight_sum": 243859123.57768634,
|
| 20 |
+
"calibration_quality": "exact",
|
| 21 |
+
"clone_donor_family_count": 860,
|
| 22 |
+
"clone_donor_family_effective_sample_size": 47.17824853269133,
|
| 23 |
+
"clone_older_donor_count": 65,
|
| 24 |
+
"clone_older_donor_effective_sample_size": 13.187117921924093,
|
| 25 |
+
"clone_worker_donor_count": 99,
|
| 26 |
+
"clone_worker_donor_effective_sample_size": 39.434950393118086,
|
| 27 |
+
"constraint_provenance": {
|
| 28 |
+
"age_targets": {
|
| 29 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 30 |
+
"scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
|
| 31 |
+
"source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
|
| 32 |
+
},
|
| 33 |
+
"hi_tob": {
|
| 34 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 35 |
+
"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
|
| 36 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 37 |
+
},
|
| 38 |
+
"income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
|
| 39 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 40 |
+
"scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
|
| 41 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
|
| 42 |
+
},
|
| 43 |
+
"income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
|
| 44 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 45 |
+
"scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
|
| 46 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
|
| 47 |
+
},
|
| 48 |
+
"oasdi_tob": {
|
| 49 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 50 |
+
"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
|
| 51 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 52 |
+
},
|
| 53 |
+
"payroll_total": {
|
| 54 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 55 |
+
"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
|
| 56 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 57 |
+
},
|
| 58 |
+
"ss_total": {
|
| 59 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 60 |
+
"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
|
| 61 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 62 |
+
}
|
| 63 |
+
},
|
| 64 |
+
"constraints": {
|
| 65 |
+
"hi_tob": {
|
| 66 |
+
"achieved": 978965000014.9778,
|
| 67 |
+
"error": 14.977783203125,
|
| 68 |
+
"pct_error": 1.529961051020721e-09,
|
| 69 |
+
"target": 978965000000.0
|
| 70 |
+
},
|
| 71 |
+
"income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
|
| 72 |
+
"achieved": 14362168017697.262,
|
| 73 |
+
"error": -18817.193359375,
|
| 74 |
+
"pct_error": -1.3101917002735286e-07,
|
| 75 |
+
"target": 14362168036514.455
|
| 76 |
+
},
|
| 77 |
+
"income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
|
| 78 |
+
"achieved": 7926556929962.124,
|
| 79 |
+
"error": 2038.8076171875,
|
| 80 |
+
"pct_error": 2.5721225946227432e-08,
|
| 81 |
+
"target": 7926556927923.316
|
| 82 |
+
},
|
| 83 |
+
"oasdi_tob": {
|
| 84 |
+
"achieved": 1163374500022.8884,
|
| 85 |
+
"error": 22.888427734375,
|
| 86 |
+
"pct_error": 1.967417004101001e-09,
|
| 87 |
+
"target": 1163374500000.0
|
| 88 |
+
},
|
| 89 |
+
"payroll_total": {
|
| 90 |
+
"achieved": 101163000000428.33,
|
| 91 |
+
"error": 428.328125,
|
| 92 |
+
"pct_error": 4.2340393721024486e-10,
|
| 93 |
+
"target": 101163000000000.0
|
| 94 |
+
},
|
| 95 |
+
"ss_total": {
|
| 96 |
+
"achieved": 19128096000130.97,
|
| 97 |
+
"error": 130.96875,
|
| 98 |
+
"pct_error": 6.846930818414965e-10,
|
| 99 |
+
"target": 19128096000000.0
|
| 100 |
+
}
|
| 101 |
+
},
|
| 102 |
+
"donor_family_count": 41674,
|
| 103 |
+
"donor_family_effective_sample_size": 490.4630902887475,
|
| 104 |
+
"effective_sample_size": 491.01592830967377,
|
| 105 |
+
"entropy_error": null,
|
| 106 |
+
"fell_back_to_ipf": false,
|
| 107 |
+
"greg_attempted": false,
|
| 108 |
+
"greg_error": null,
|
| 109 |
+
"hi_tob_contributor_count": 41674,
|
| 110 |
+
"hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 58.46946388332755,
|
| 111 |
+
"hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 9250,
|
| 112 |
+
"largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
|
| 113 |
+
"lp_fallback_used": false,
|
| 114 |
+
"max_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 5.4177168025491556,
|
| 115 |
+
"max_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 16.36786588052721,
|
| 116 |
+
"max_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 5.463131250259993,
|
| 117 |
+
"max_constraint_pct_error": 1.3101917002735286e-07,
|
| 118 |
+
"max_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 1.5012529848889957,
|
| 119 |
+
"max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 6.4290227184153075,
|
| 120 |
+
"max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 4.612437270992609,
|
| 121 |
+
"max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 2.1639912465390876,
|
| 122 |
+
"max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 4.083709157031609,
|
| 123 |
+
"method_requested": "entropy",
|
| 124 |
+
"method_used": "entropy",
|
| 125 |
+
"negative_weight_count": 0,
|
| 126 |
+
"negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
|
| 127 |
+
"negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 128 |
+
"oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 41674,
|
| 129 |
+
"oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 65.81054389865892,
|
| 130 |
+
"oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 10073,
|
| 131 |
+
"payroll_total_contributor_count": 41674,
|
| 132 |
+
"payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 374.7237816614403,
|
| 133 |
+
"payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 34455,
|
| 134 |
+
"positive_clone_donor_family_count": 860,
|
| 135 |
+
"positive_clone_older_donor_count": 65,
|
| 136 |
+
"positive_clone_worker_donor_count": 99,
|
| 137 |
+
"positive_donor_family_count": 41674,
|
| 138 |
+
"positive_weight_count": 61674,
|
| 139 |
+
"positive_weight_pct": 100.0,
|
| 140 |
+
"ss_total_contributor_count": 41674,
|
| 141 |
+
"ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 126.50439698067521,
|
| 142 |
+
"ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 14510,
|
| 143 |
+
"support_blueprint": {
|
| 144 |
+
"base_weight_scale": 5.0,
|
| 145 |
+
"clone_household_count": 360,
|
| 146 |
+
"clone_total_prior_weight": 155786994.56450662,
|
| 147 |
+
"include_value_overrides": false,
|
| 148 |
+
"mode": "target_year_role_composite_blueprint",
|
| 149 |
+
"target_year": 2084,
|
| 150 |
+
"tob_donor_family_prior_regularization": {
|
| 151 |
+
"applied_max_multiplier": 1.2343210331166197,
|
| 152 |
+
"applied_median_multiplier": 1.0000005913481027,
|
| 153 |
+
"applied_min_multiplier": 0.1,
|
| 154 |
+
"contribution_target": 3.985415250000001e-06,
|
| 155 |
+
"family_count": 500,
|
| 156 |
+
"max_weight_scale_multiplier": 10.0,
|
| 157 |
+
"min_weight_scale_multiplier": 0.1,
|
| 158 |
+
"mode": "equal_contribution",
|
| 159 |
+
"score_mode": "hi_tob"
|
| 160 |
+
}
|
| 161 |
+
},
|
| 162 |
+
"top_100_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 86.16780907567701,
|
| 163 |
+
"top_100_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 100.0,
|
| 164 |
+
"top_100_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 100.0,
|
| 165 |
+
"top_100_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 33.49610418532592,
|
| 166 |
+
"top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 82.2863475147622,
|
| 167 |
+
"top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 79.23718668982033,
|
| 168 |
+
"top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 39.32700076727814,
|
| 169 |
+
"top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 64.46391559334671,
|
| 170 |
+
"top_100_weight_share_pct": 33.49610418532593,
|
| 171 |
+
"top_10_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 36.02230160507117,
|
| 172 |
+
"top_10_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 62.19343976194395,
|
| 173 |
+
"top_10_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 41.37516445241317,
|
| 174 |
+
"top_10_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 8.575671385810303,
|
| 175 |
+
"top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 33.1872133800044,
|
| 176 |
+
"top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 31.942739583045675,
|
| 177 |
+
"top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 9.129076981297837,
|
| 178 |
+
"top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 20.431962202031258,
|
| 179 |
+
"top_10_weight_share_pct": 8.575671385810304,
|
| 180 |
+
"validation_issues": [],
|
| 181 |
+
"validation_passed": true
|
| 182 |
+
},
|
| 183 |
+
"contract_version": 1,
|
| 184 |
+
"policyengine_us": {
|
| 185 |
+
"package_dir": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policyengine-us-data-crfb-pin/.venv/lib/python3.14/site-packages/policyengine_us",
|
| 186 |
+
"package_file": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policyengine-us-data-crfb-pin/.venv/lib/python3.14/site-packages/policyengine_us/__init__.py",
|
| 187 |
+
"package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
|
| 188 |
+
"package_mtime_ns": 1778950525391246940,
|
| 189 |
+
"package_size": 498,
|
| 190 |
+
"package_tree_file_count": 13229,
|
| 191 |
+
"package_tree_sha256": "22d87cadef959eba850e557b5552733353999e8b63570ca0cc448a98d4af78e9",
|
| 192 |
+
"package_tree_size": 20314316,
|
| 193 |
+
"version": "1.691.12"
|
| 194 |
+
},
|
| 195 |
+
"profile": {
|
| 196 |
+
"allow_greg_fallback": false,
|
| 197 |
+
"approximate_windows": [
|
| 198 |
+
{
|
| 199 |
+
"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 200 |
+
"end_year": 2078,
|
| 201 |
+
"max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
|
| 202 |
+
"max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
|
| 203 |
+
"max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 204 |
+
"max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
|
| 205 |
+
"max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
|
| 206 |
+
"min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
|
| 207 |
+
"min_positive_household_count": 1000,
|
| 208 |
+
"start_year": 2075
|
| 209 |
+
},
|
| 210 |
+
{
|
| 211 |
+
"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 212 |
+
"end_year": 2085,
|
| 213 |
+
"max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
|
| 214 |
+
"max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
|
| 215 |
+
"max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 216 |
+
"max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
|
| 217 |
+
"max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
|
| 218 |
+
"min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
|
| 219 |
+
"min_positive_household_count": 1000,
|
| 220 |
+
"start_year": 2079
|
| 221 |
+
},
|
| 222 |
+
{
|
| 223 |
+
"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 224 |
+
"end_year": 2095,
|
| 225 |
+
"max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
|
| 226 |
+
"max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
|
| 227 |
+
"max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 228 |
+
"max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
|
| 229 |
+
"max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
|
| 230 |
+
"min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
|
| 231 |
+
"min_positive_household_count": 1000,
|
| 232 |
+
"start_year": 2086
|
| 233 |
+
},
|
| 234 |
+
{
|
| 235 |
+
"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 236 |
+
"end_year": null,
|
| 237 |
+
"max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
|
| 238 |
+
"max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
|
| 239 |
+
"max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 240 |
+
"max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
|
| 241 |
+
"max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
|
| 242 |
+
"min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
|
| 243 |
+
"min_positive_household_count": 1000,
|
| 244 |
+
"start_year": 2096
|
| 245 |
+
}
|
| 246 |
+
],
|
| 247 |
+
"benchmark_tob": false,
|
| 248 |
+
"calibration_method": "entropy",
|
| 249 |
+
"description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
|
| 250 |
+
"max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
|
| 251 |
+
"max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
|
| 252 |
+
"max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 253 |
+
"max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
|
| 254 |
+
"max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
|
| 255 |
+
"min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
|
| 256 |
+
"min_positive_household_count": 1000,
|
| 257 |
+
"name": "ss-payroll-tob",
|
| 258 |
+
"use_greg": false,
|
| 259 |
+
"use_h6_reform": false,
|
| 260 |
+
"use_payroll": true,
|
| 261 |
+
"use_ss": true,
|
| 262 |
+
"use_tob": true
|
| 263 |
+
},
|
| 264 |
+
"support_augmentation": {
|
| 265 |
+
"activation_start_year": 2075,
|
| 266 |
+
"blueprint_base_weight_scale": 5.0,
|
| 267 |
+
"clone_weight_scale": 0.1,
|
| 268 |
+
"donors_per_target": 5,
|
| 269 |
+
"family": "targeted_donor",
|
| 270 |
+
"max_distance_for_clone": 3.0,
|
| 271 |
+
"name": "donor-backed-composite-v1",
|
| 272 |
+
"non_target_income_sanitizer_mode": "none",
|
| 273 |
+
"report_file": "support_augmentation_report_2084.json",
|
| 274 |
+
"report_summary": {
|
| 275 |
+
"augmented_household_count": 61674,
|
| 276 |
+
"augmented_person_count": 153014,
|
| 277 |
+
"base_household_count": 41314,
|
| 278 |
+
"base_person_count": 101384,
|
| 279 |
+
"clone_household_count": 20360,
|
| 280 |
+
"role_composite_clone_count": 360,
|
| 281 |
+
"skipped_target_count": 0,
|
| 282 |
+
"successful_target_count": 360,
|
| 283 |
+
"tob_donor_clone_count": 20000
|
| 284 |
+
},
|
| 285 |
+
"sanitize_clone_non_target_income": false,
|
| 286 |
+
"sanitize_worker_non_target_income": false,
|
| 287 |
+
"support_solve_max_constraint_error_pct": 5.0,
|
| 288 |
+
"target_year": 2084,
|
| 289 |
+
"target_year_strategy": "run_year",
|
| 290 |
+
"tob_donor_clones_per_source": 40,
|
| 291 |
+
"tob_donor_max_weight_scale_multiplier": 10.0,
|
| 292 |
+
"tob_donor_min_weight_scale_multiplier": 0.1,
|
| 293 |
+
"tob_donor_top_n_sources": 500,
|
| 294 |
+
"tob_donor_weight_scale": 0.2,
|
| 295 |
+
"tob_donor_weighting_mode": "equal_contribution",
|
| 296 |
+
"top_n_targets": 20
|
| 297 |
+
},
|
| 298 |
+
"target_source": {
|
| 299 |
+
"baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
|
| 300 |
+
"description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
|
| 301 |
+
"file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
|
| 302 |
+
"name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
|
| 303 |
+
"not_law": false,
|
| 304 |
+
"notes": [
|
| 305 |
+
"Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
|
| 306 |
+
],
|
| 307 |
+
"sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
|
| 308 |
+
"source_urls": [
|
| 309 |
+
"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
|
| 310 |
+
"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
|
| 311 |
+
],
|
| 312 |
+
"type": "trustees_current_law"
|
| 313 |
+
},
|
| 314 |
+
"tax_assumption": {
|
| 315 |
+
"description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
|
| 316 |
+
"economic_assumption": "trustees-2025-nawi-v1",
|
| 317 |
+
"end_year": 2100,
|
| 318 |
+
"income_uprating_assumption": "trustees-2025-soi-income-nawi-v1",
|
| 319 |
+
"name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
|
| 320 |
+
"not_default_current_law": true,
|
| 321 |
+
"parameter_groups": [
|
| 322 |
+
"all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
|
| 323 |
+
],
|
| 324 |
+
"projection_base_year": 2026,
|
| 325 |
+
"source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
|
| 326 |
+
"start_year": 2035,
|
| 327 |
+
"uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating"
|
| 328 |
+
},
|
| 329 |
+
"year": 2084
|
| 330 |
+
}
|
staging/crfb-longrun-20260517/long_term/2085.h5.metadata.json
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,330 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
{
|
| 2 |
+
"base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5",
|
| 3 |
+
"base_dataset_snapshot": {
|
| 4 |
+
"requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5",
|
| 5 |
+
"resolved_file_sha256": "96965b0d9931d36beb29486b25fffee8b630e3b62c9376e7265976e02f7ab3ca",
|
| 6 |
+
"resolved_mtime_ns": 1778905303378497095,
|
| 7 |
+
"resolved_path": "/Users/maxghenis/.cache/huggingface/hub/models--policyengine--policyengine-us-data/blobs/96965b0d9931d36beb29486b25fffee8b630e3b62c9376e7265976e02f7ab3ca",
|
| 8 |
+
"resolved_size": 106261154
|
| 9 |
+
},
|
| 10 |
+
"calibration_audit": {
|
| 11 |
+
"age_bucket_count": 18,
|
| 12 |
+
"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 13 |
+
"age_max_pct_error": 8.704277409421315e-07,
|
| 14 |
+
"approximate_entropy_error": null,
|
| 15 |
+
"approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
|
| 16 |
+
"approximate_solution_used": false,
|
| 17 |
+
"approximation_method": null,
|
| 18 |
+
"baseline_weight_sum": 928977972.6141459,
|
| 19 |
+
"calibrated_weight_sum": 242560098.7395683,
|
| 20 |
+
"calibration_quality": "exact",
|
| 21 |
+
"clone_donor_family_count": 900,
|
| 22 |
+
"clone_donor_family_effective_sample_size": 62.74895772337363,
|
| 23 |
+
"clone_older_donor_count": 70,
|
| 24 |
+
"clone_older_donor_effective_sample_size": 29.11461601143083,
|
| 25 |
+
"clone_worker_donor_count": 100,
|
| 26 |
+
"clone_worker_donor_effective_sample_size": 42.88113757694396,
|
| 27 |
+
"constraint_provenance": {
|
| 28 |
+
"age_targets": {
|
| 29 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 30 |
+
"scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
|
| 31 |
+
"source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
|
| 32 |
+
},
|
| 33 |
+
"hi_tob": {
|
| 34 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 35 |
+
"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
|
| 36 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 37 |
+
},
|
| 38 |
+
"income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
|
| 39 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 40 |
+
"scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
|
| 41 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
|
| 42 |
+
},
|
| 43 |
+
"income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
|
| 44 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 45 |
+
"scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
|
| 46 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
|
| 47 |
+
},
|
| 48 |
+
"oasdi_tob": {
|
| 49 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 50 |
+
"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
|
| 51 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 52 |
+
},
|
| 53 |
+
"payroll_total": {
|
| 54 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 55 |
+
"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
|
| 56 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 57 |
+
},
|
| 58 |
+
"ss_total": {
|
| 59 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 60 |
+
"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
|
| 61 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 62 |
+
}
|
| 63 |
+
},
|
| 64 |
+
"constraints": {
|
| 65 |
+
"hi_tob": {
|
| 66 |
+
"achieved": 1015209009313.6218,
|
| 67 |
+
"error": 9313.621826171875,
|
| 68 |
+
"pct_error": 9.174093045049714e-07,
|
| 69 |
+
"target": 1015209000000.0
|
| 70 |
+
},
|
| 71 |
+
"income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
|
| 72 |
+
"achieved": 14825552659380.186,
|
| 73 |
+
"error": -266359.177734375,
|
| 74 |
+
"pct_error": -1.796622217522396e-06,
|
| 75 |
+
"target": 14825552925739.363
|
| 76 |
+
},
|
| 77 |
+
"income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
|
| 78 |
+
"achieved": 8215004878986.893,
|
| 79 |
+
"error": 4281989.9619140625,
|
| 80 |
+
"pct_error": 5.2124037136155334e-05,
|
| 81 |
+
"target": 8215000596996.931
|
| 82 |
+
},
|
| 83 |
+
"oasdi_tob": {
|
| 84 |
+
"achieved": 1208696014539.9595,
|
| 85 |
+
"error": 14539.95947265625,
|
| 86 |
+
"pct_error": 1.2029459411345987e-06,
|
| 87 |
+
"target": 1208696000000.0
|
| 88 |
+
},
|
| 89 |
+
"payroll_total": {
|
| 90 |
+
"achieved": 105104000060286.73,
|
| 91 |
+
"error": 60286.734375,
|
| 92 |
+
"pct_error": 5.735912465272492e-08,
|
| 93 |
+
"target": 105104000000000.0
|
| 94 |
+
},
|
| 95 |
+
"ss_total": {
|
| 96 |
+
"achieved": 19832007578016.477,
|
| 97 |
+
"error": 78016.4765625,
|
| 98 |
+
"pct_error": 3.933866834333337e-07,
|
| 99 |
+
"target": 19832007500000.0
|
| 100 |
+
}
|
| 101 |
+
},
|
| 102 |
+
"donor_family_count": 41714,
|
| 103 |
+
"donor_family_effective_sample_size": 517.3175725403197,
|
| 104 |
+
"effective_sample_size": 517.8511130781733,
|
| 105 |
+
"entropy_error": null,
|
| 106 |
+
"fell_back_to_ipf": false,
|
| 107 |
+
"greg_attempted": false,
|
| 108 |
+
"greg_error": null,
|
| 109 |
+
"hi_tob_contributor_count": 41714,
|
| 110 |
+
"hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 65.11636438230128,
|
| 111 |
+
"hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 9284,
|
| 112 |
+
"largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
|
| 113 |
+
"lp_fallback_used": false,
|
| 114 |
+
"max_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 4.725894754902955,
|
| 115 |
+
"max_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 7.4579850499664815,
|
| 116 |
+
"max_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 4.758837721288728,
|
| 117 |
+
"max_constraint_pct_error": 5.2124037136155334e-05,
|
| 118 |
+
"max_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 1.3078985130227043,
|
| 119 |
+
"max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 6.468761989502511,
|
| 120 |
+
"max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 4.685102097853299,
|
| 121 |
+
"max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 2.299487030096277,
|
| 122 |
+
"max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 4.156723653352666,
|
| 123 |
+
"method_requested": "entropy",
|
| 124 |
+
"method_used": "entropy",
|
| 125 |
+
"negative_weight_count": 0,
|
| 126 |
+
"negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
|
| 127 |
+
"negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 128 |
+
"oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 41714,
|
| 129 |
+
"oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 79.04411560463602,
|
| 130 |
+
"oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 10099,
|
| 131 |
+
"payroll_total_contributor_count": 41714,
|
| 132 |
+
"payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 407.4059620985776,
|
| 133 |
+
"payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 34496,
|
| 134 |
+
"positive_clone_donor_family_count": 900,
|
| 135 |
+
"positive_clone_older_donor_count": 70,
|
| 136 |
+
"positive_clone_worker_donor_count": 100,
|
| 137 |
+
"positive_donor_family_count": 41714,
|
| 138 |
+
"positive_weight_count": 61714,
|
| 139 |
+
"positive_weight_pct": 100.0,
|
| 140 |
+
"ss_total_contributor_count": 41714,
|
| 141 |
+
"ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 137.77166270377825,
|
| 142 |
+
"ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 14560,
|
| 143 |
+
"support_blueprint": {
|
| 144 |
+
"base_weight_scale": 5.0,
|
| 145 |
+
"clone_household_count": 400,
|
| 146 |
+
"clone_total_prior_weight": 155874014.71453246,
|
| 147 |
+
"include_value_overrides": false,
|
| 148 |
+
"mode": "target_year_role_composite_blueprint",
|
| 149 |
+
"target_year": 2085,
|
| 150 |
+
"tob_donor_family_prior_regularization": {
|
| 151 |
+
"applied_max_multiplier": 1.240625,
|
| 152 |
+
"applied_median_multiplier": 1.0000063448555911,
|
| 153 |
+
"applied_min_multiplier": 0.1,
|
| 154 |
+
"contribution_target": 4.166912e-06,
|
| 155 |
+
"family_count": 500,
|
| 156 |
+
"max_weight_scale_multiplier": 10.0,
|
| 157 |
+
"min_weight_scale_multiplier": 0.1,
|
| 158 |
+
"mode": "equal_contribution",
|
| 159 |
+
"score_mode": "hi_tob"
|
| 160 |
+
}
|
| 161 |
+
},
|
| 162 |
+
"top_100_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 75.49096857164353,
|
| 163 |
+
"top_100_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 99.99999999999999,
|
| 164 |
+
"top_100_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 99.99999999999996,
|
| 165 |
+
"top_100_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 32.76309607412166,
|
| 166 |
+
"top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 79.77323391068597,
|
| 167 |
+
"top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 76.53899202205207,
|
| 168 |
+
"top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 36.85426954709425,
|
| 169 |
+
"top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 61.24905393651869,
|
| 170 |
+
"top_100_weight_share_pct": 32.76309607412166,
|
| 171 |
+
"top_10_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 33.27601905660196,
|
| 172 |
+
"top_10_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 43.475735999061726,
|
| 173 |
+
"top_10_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 37.232506655348914,
|
| 174 |
+
"top_10_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 8.509995520498592,
|
| 175 |
+
"top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 30.253270078466795,
|
| 176 |
+
"top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 27.83438198534051,
|
| 177 |
+
"top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 8.97701940703425,
|
| 178 |
+
"top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 18.89895878729775,
|
| 179 |
+
"top_10_weight_share_pct": 8.509995520498592,
|
| 180 |
+
"validation_issues": [],
|
| 181 |
+
"validation_passed": true
|
| 182 |
+
},
|
| 183 |
+
"contract_version": 1,
|
| 184 |
+
"policyengine_us": {
|
| 185 |
+
"package_dir": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policyengine-us-data-crfb-pin/.venv/lib/python3.14/site-packages/policyengine_us",
|
| 186 |
+
"package_file": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policyengine-us-data-crfb-pin/.venv/lib/python3.14/site-packages/policyengine_us/__init__.py",
|
| 187 |
+
"package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
|
| 188 |
+
"package_mtime_ns": 1778950525391246940,
|
| 189 |
+
"package_size": 498,
|
| 190 |
+
"package_tree_file_count": 13229,
|
| 191 |
+
"package_tree_sha256": "22d87cadef959eba850e557b5552733353999e8b63570ca0cc448a98d4af78e9",
|
| 192 |
+
"package_tree_size": 20314316,
|
| 193 |
+
"version": "1.691.12"
|
| 194 |
+
},
|
| 195 |
+
"profile": {
|
| 196 |
+
"allow_greg_fallback": false,
|
| 197 |
+
"approximate_windows": [
|
| 198 |
+
{
|
| 199 |
+
"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 200 |
+
"end_year": 2078,
|
| 201 |
+
"max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
|
| 202 |
+
"max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
|
| 203 |
+
"max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 204 |
+
"max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
|
| 205 |
+
"max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
|
| 206 |
+
"min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
|
| 207 |
+
"min_positive_household_count": 1000,
|
| 208 |
+
"start_year": 2075
|
| 209 |
+
},
|
| 210 |
+
{
|
| 211 |
+
"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 212 |
+
"end_year": 2085,
|
| 213 |
+
"max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
|
| 214 |
+
"max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
|
| 215 |
+
"max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 216 |
+
"max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
|
| 217 |
+
"max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
|
| 218 |
+
"min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
|
| 219 |
+
"min_positive_household_count": 1000,
|
| 220 |
+
"start_year": 2079
|
| 221 |
+
},
|
| 222 |
+
{
|
| 223 |
+
"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 224 |
+
"end_year": 2095,
|
| 225 |
+
"max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
|
| 226 |
+
"max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
|
| 227 |
+
"max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 228 |
+
"max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
|
| 229 |
+
"max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
|
| 230 |
+
"min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
|
| 231 |
+
"min_positive_household_count": 1000,
|
| 232 |
+
"start_year": 2086
|
| 233 |
+
},
|
| 234 |
+
{
|
| 235 |
+
"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 236 |
+
"end_year": null,
|
| 237 |
+
"max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
|
| 238 |
+
"max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
|
| 239 |
+
"max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 240 |
+
"max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
|
| 241 |
+
"max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
|
| 242 |
+
"min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
|
| 243 |
+
"min_positive_household_count": 1000,
|
| 244 |
+
"start_year": 2096
|
| 245 |
+
}
|
| 246 |
+
],
|
| 247 |
+
"benchmark_tob": false,
|
| 248 |
+
"calibration_method": "entropy",
|
| 249 |
+
"description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
|
| 250 |
+
"max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
|
| 251 |
+
"max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
|
| 252 |
+
"max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 253 |
+
"max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
|
| 254 |
+
"max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
|
| 255 |
+
"min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
|
| 256 |
+
"min_positive_household_count": 1000,
|
| 257 |
+
"name": "ss-payroll-tob",
|
| 258 |
+
"use_greg": false,
|
| 259 |
+
"use_h6_reform": false,
|
| 260 |
+
"use_payroll": true,
|
| 261 |
+
"use_ss": true,
|
| 262 |
+
"use_tob": true
|
| 263 |
+
},
|
| 264 |
+
"support_augmentation": {
|
| 265 |
+
"activation_start_year": 2075,
|
| 266 |
+
"blueprint_base_weight_scale": 5.0,
|
| 267 |
+
"clone_weight_scale": 0.1,
|
| 268 |
+
"donors_per_target": 5,
|
| 269 |
+
"family": "targeted_donor",
|
| 270 |
+
"max_distance_for_clone": 3.0,
|
| 271 |
+
"name": "donor-backed-composite-v1",
|
| 272 |
+
"non_target_income_sanitizer_mode": "none",
|
| 273 |
+
"report_file": "support_augmentation_report_2085.json",
|
| 274 |
+
"report_summary": {
|
| 275 |
+
"augmented_household_count": 61714,
|
| 276 |
+
"augmented_person_count": 152574,
|
| 277 |
+
"base_household_count": 41314,
|
| 278 |
+
"base_person_count": 101384,
|
| 279 |
+
"clone_household_count": 20400,
|
| 280 |
+
"role_composite_clone_count": 400,
|
| 281 |
+
"skipped_target_count": 0,
|
| 282 |
+
"successful_target_count": 400,
|
| 283 |
+
"tob_donor_clone_count": 20000
|
| 284 |
+
},
|
| 285 |
+
"sanitize_clone_non_target_income": false,
|
| 286 |
+
"sanitize_worker_non_target_income": false,
|
| 287 |
+
"support_solve_max_constraint_error_pct": 5.0,
|
| 288 |
+
"target_year": 2085,
|
| 289 |
+
"target_year_strategy": "run_year",
|
| 290 |
+
"tob_donor_clones_per_source": 40,
|
| 291 |
+
"tob_donor_max_weight_scale_multiplier": 10.0,
|
| 292 |
+
"tob_donor_min_weight_scale_multiplier": 0.1,
|
| 293 |
+
"tob_donor_top_n_sources": 500,
|
| 294 |
+
"tob_donor_weight_scale": 0.2,
|
| 295 |
+
"tob_donor_weighting_mode": "equal_contribution",
|
| 296 |
+
"top_n_targets": 20
|
| 297 |
+
},
|
| 298 |
+
"target_source": {
|
| 299 |
+
"baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
|
| 300 |
+
"description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
|
| 301 |
+
"file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
|
| 302 |
+
"name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
|
| 303 |
+
"not_law": false,
|
| 304 |
+
"notes": [
|
| 305 |
+
"Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
|
| 306 |
+
],
|
| 307 |
+
"sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
|
| 308 |
+
"source_urls": [
|
| 309 |
+
"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
|
| 310 |
+
"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
|
| 311 |
+
],
|
| 312 |
+
"type": "trustees_current_law"
|
| 313 |
+
},
|
| 314 |
+
"tax_assumption": {
|
| 315 |
+
"description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
|
| 316 |
+
"economic_assumption": "trustees-2025-nawi-v1",
|
| 317 |
+
"end_year": 2100,
|
| 318 |
+
"income_uprating_assumption": "trustees-2025-soi-income-nawi-v1",
|
| 319 |
+
"name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
|
| 320 |
+
"not_default_current_law": true,
|
| 321 |
+
"parameter_groups": [
|
| 322 |
+
"all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
|
| 323 |
+
],
|
| 324 |
+
"projection_base_year": 2026,
|
| 325 |
+
"source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
|
| 326 |
+
"start_year": 2035,
|
| 327 |
+
"uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating"
|
| 328 |
+
},
|
| 329 |
+
"year": 2085
|
| 330 |
+
}
|
staging/crfb-longrun-20260517/long_term/2086.h5.metadata.json
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,330 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
{
|
| 2 |
+
"base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5",
|
| 3 |
+
"base_dataset_snapshot": {
|
| 4 |
+
"requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5",
|
| 5 |
+
"resolved_file_sha256": "96965b0d9931d36beb29486b25fffee8b630e3b62c9376e7265976e02f7ab3ca",
|
| 6 |
+
"resolved_mtime_ns": 1778905303378497095,
|
| 7 |
+
"resolved_path": "/Users/maxghenis/.cache/huggingface/hub/models--policyengine--policyengine-us-data/blobs/96965b0d9931d36beb29486b25fffee8b630e3b62c9376e7265976e02f7ab3ca",
|
| 8 |
+
"resolved_size": 106261154
|
| 9 |
+
},
|
| 10 |
+
"calibration_audit": {
|
| 11 |
+
"age_bucket_count": 18,
|
| 12 |
+
"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 13 |
+
"age_max_pct_error": 6.995415213851488e-07,
|
| 14 |
+
"approximate_entropy_error": null,
|
| 15 |
+
"approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
|
| 16 |
+
"approximate_solution_used": false,
|
| 17 |
+
"approximation_method": null,
|
| 18 |
+
"baseline_weight_sum": 928977970.647868,
|
| 19 |
+
"calibrated_weight_sum": 243250577.62841097,
|
| 20 |
+
"calibration_quality": "exact",
|
| 21 |
+
"clone_donor_family_count": 900,
|
| 22 |
+
"clone_donor_family_effective_sample_size": 62.66314047929653,
|
| 23 |
+
"clone_older_donor_count": 70,
|
| 24 |
+
"clone_older_donor_effective_sample_size": 28.813310453327222,
|
| 25 |
+
"clone_worker_donor_count": 100,
|
| 26 |
+
"clone_worker_donor_effective_sample_size": 42.89115621257192,
|
| 27 |
+
"constraint_provenance": {
|
| 28 |
+
"age_targets": {
|
| 29 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 30 |
+
"scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
|
| 31 |
+
"source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
|
| 32 |
+
},
|
| 33 |
+
"hi_tob": {
|
| 34 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 35 |
+
"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
|
| 36 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 37 |
+
},
|
| 38 |
+
"income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
|
| 39 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 40 |
+
"scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
|
| 41 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
|
| 42 |
+
},
|
| 43 |
+
"income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
|
| 44 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 45 |
+
"scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
|
| 46 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
|
| 47 |
+
},
|
| 48 |
+
"oasdi_tob": {
|
| 49 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 50 |
+
"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
|
| 51 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 52 |
+
},
|
| 53 |
+
"payroll_total": {
|
| 54 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 55 |
+
"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
|
| 56 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 57 |
+
},
|
| 58 |
+
"ss_total": {
|
| 59 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 60 |
+
"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
|
| 61 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 62 |
+
}
|
| 63 |
+
},
|
| 64 |
+
"constraints": {
|
| 65 |
+
"hi_tob": {
|
| 66 |
+
"achieved": 1052674007826.8073,
|
| 67 |
+
"error": 7826.8072509765625,
|
| 68 |
+
"pct_error": 7.435167251187512e-07,
|
| 69 |
+
"target": 1052674000000.0
|
| 70 |
+
},
|
| 71 |
+
"income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
|
| 72 |
+
"achieved": 15346975419639.191,
|
| 73 |
+
"error": 423911.654296875,
|
| 74 |
+
"pct_error": 2.76218378159141e-06,
|
| 75 |
+
"target": 15346974995727.537
|
| 76 |
+
},
|
| 77 |
+
"income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
|
| 78 |
+
"achieved": 8525377667020.356,
|
| 79 |
+
"error": 5400054.3564453125,
|
| 80 |
+
"pct_error": 6.334098016305249e-05,
|
| 81 |
+
"target": 8525372266966.0
|
| 82 |
+
},
|
| 83 |
+
"oasdi_tob": {
|
| 84 |
+
"achieved": 1245073812138.4023,
|
| 85 |
+
"error": 12138.40234375,
|
| 86 |
+
"pct_error": 9.749142857033857e-07,
|
| 87 |
+
"target": 1245073800000.0
|
| 88 |
+
},
|
| 89 |
+
"payroll_total": {
|
| 90 |
+
"achieved": 109217000055909.69,
|
| 91 |
+
"error": 55909.6875,
|
| 92 |
+
"pct_error": 5.1191378173727536e-08,
|
| 93 |
+
"target": 109217000000000.0
|
| 94 |
+
},
|
| 95 |
+
"ss_total": {
|
| 96 |
+
"achieved": 20554749065829.51,
|
| 97 |
+
"error": 65829.51171875,
|
| 98 |
+
"pct_error": 3.202642451082716e-07,
|
| 99 |
+
"target": 20554749000000.0
|
| 100 |
+
}
|
| 101 |
+
},
|
| 102 |
+
"donor_family_count": 41714,
|
| 103 |
+
"donor_family_effective_sample_size": 514.1585152694099,
|
| 104 |
+
"effective_sample_size": 514.7962320756651,
|
| 105 |
+
"entropy_error": null,
|
| 106 |
+
"fell_back_to_ipf": false,
|
| 107 |
+
"greg_attempted": false,
|
| 108 |
+
"greg_error": null,
|
| 109 |
+
"hi_tob_contributor_count": 41714,
|
| 110 |
+
"hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 64.61008144480904,
|
| 111 |
+
"hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 9313,
|
| 112 |
+
"largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
|
| 113 |
+
"lp_fallback_used": false,
|
| 114 |
+
"max_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 4.73082945595791,
|
| 115 |
+
"max_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 7.639689976820593,
|
| 116 |
+
"max_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 4.7673240964801815,
|
| 117 |
+
"max_constraint_pct_error": 6.334098016305249e-05,
|
| 118 |
+
"max_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 1.320921717264036,
|
| 119 |
+
"max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 6.520974449740108,
|
| 120 |
+
"max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 4.806500717734924,
|
| 121 |
+
"max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 2.304843606527232,
|
| 122 |
+
"max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 4.238277128730843,
|
| 123 |
+
"method_requested": "entropy",
|
| 124 |
+
"method_used": "entropy",
|
| 125 |
+
"negative_weight_count": 0,
|
| 126 |
+
"negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
|
| 127 |
+
"negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 128 |
+
"oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 41714,
|
| 129 |
+
"oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 78.70348051946416,
|
| 130 |
+
"oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 10125,
|
| 131 |
+
"payroll_total_contributor_count": 41714,
|
| 132 |
+
"payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 405.84842110839827,
|
| 133 |
+
"payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 34496,
|
| 134 |
+
"positive_clone_donor_family_count": 900,
|
| 135 |
+
"positive_clone_older_donor_count": 70,
|
| 136 |
+
"positive_clone_worker_donor_count": 100,
|
| 137 |
+
"positive_donor_family_count": 41714,
|
| 138 |
+
"positive_weight_count": 61714,
|
| 139 |
+
"positive_weight_pct": 100.0,
|
| 140 |
+
"ss_total_contributor_count": 41714,
|
| 141 |
+
"ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 134.82137173282058,
|
| 142 |
+
"ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 14560,
|
| 143 |
+
"support_blueprint": {
|
| 144 |
+
"base_weight_scale": 5.0,
|
| 145 |
+
"clone_household_count": 400,
|
| 146 |
+
"clone_total_prior_weight": 155874015.19120583,
|
| 147 |
+
"include_value_overrides": false,
|
| 148 |
+
"mode": "target_year_role_composite_blueprint",
|
| 149 |
+
"target_year": 2086,
|
| 150 |
+
"tob_donor_family_prior_regularization": {
|
| 151 |
+
"applied_max_multiplier": 1.2311699381999857,
|
| 152 |
+
"applied_median_multiplier": 1.000000479363916,
|
| 153 |
+
"applied_min_multiplier": 0.1,
|
| 154 |
+
"contribution_target": 4.263672e-06,
|
| 155 |
+
"family_count": 500,
|
| 156 |
+
"max_weight_scale_multiplier": 10.0,
|
| 157 |
+
"min_weight_scale_multiplier": 0.1,
|
| 158 |
+
"mode": "equal_contribution",
|
| 159 |
+
"score_mode": "hi_tob"
|
| 160 |
+
}
|
| 161 |
+
},
|
| 162 |
+
"top_100_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 75.24732145303936,
|
| 163 |
+
"top_100_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 100.00000000000003,
|
| 164 |
+
"top_100_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 99.99999999999997,
|
| 165 |
+
"top_100_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 32.7714311365267,
|
| 166 |
+
"top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 79.92370753822044,
|
| 167 |
+
"top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 76.62965790830783,
|
| 168 |
+
"top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 37.021863111749674,
|
| 169 |
+
"top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 61.56577544774968,
|
| 170 |
+
"top_100_weight_share_pct": 32.7714311365267,
|
| 171 |
+
"top_10_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 33.264054883924885,
|
| 172 |
+
"top_10_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 43.43124119878918,
|
| 173 |
+
"top_10_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 37.56856817151789,
|
| 174 |
+
"top_10_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 8.565664499510515,
|
| 175 |
+
"top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 30.05949097691978,
|
| 176 |
+
"top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 27.76349897338925,
|
| 177 |
+
"top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 8.949141130632613,
|
| 178 |
+
"top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 18.98862287269831,
|
| 179 |
+
"top_10_weight_share_pct": 8.565664499510515,
|
| 180 |
+
"validation_issues": [],
|
| 181 |
+
"validation_passed": true
|
| 182 |
+
},
|
| 183 |
+
"contract_version": 1,
|
| 184 |
+
"policyengine_us": {
|
| 185 |
+
"package_dir": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policyengine-us-data-crfb-pin/.venv/lib/python3.14/site-packages/policyengine_us",
|
| 186 |
+
"package_file": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policyengine-us-data-crfb-pin/.venv/lib/python3.14/site-packages/policyengine_us/__init__.py",
|
| 187 |
+
"package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
|
| 188 |
+
"package_mtime_ns": 1778950525391246940,
|
| 189 |
+
"package_size": 498,
|
| 190 |
+
"package_tree_file_count": 13229,
|
| 191 |
+
"package_tree_sha256": "22d87cadef959eba850e557b5552733353999e8b63570ca0cc448a98d4af78e9",
|
| 192 |
+
"package_tree_size": 20314316,
|
| 193 |
+
"version": "1.691.12"
|
| 194 |
+
},
|
| 195 |
+
"profile": {
|
| 196 |
+
"allow_greg_fallback": false,
|
| 197 |
+
"approximate_windows": [
|
| 198 |
+
{
|
| 199 |
+
"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 200 |
+
"end_year": 2078,
|
| 201 |
+
"max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
|
| 202 |
+
"max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
|
| 203 |
+
"max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 204 |
+
"max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
|
| 205 |
+
"max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
|
| 206 |
+
"min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
|
| 207 |
+
"min_positive_household_count": 1000,
|
| 208 |
+
"start_year": 2075
|
| 209 |
+
},
|
| 210 |
+
{
|
| 211 |
+
"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 212 |
+
"end_year": 2085,
|
| 213 |
+
"max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
|
| 214 |
+
"max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
|
| 215 |
+
"max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 216 |
+
"max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
|
| 217 |
+
"max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
|
| 218 |
+
"min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
|
| 219 |
+
"min_positive_household_count": 1000,
|
| 220 |
+
"start_year": 2079
|
| 221 |
+
},
|
| 222 |
+
{
|
| 223 |
+
"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 224 |
+
"end_year": 2095,
|
| 225 |
+
"max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
|
| 226 |
+
"max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
|
| 227 |
+
"max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 228 |
+
"max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
|
| 229 |
+
"max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
|
| 230 |
+
"min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
|
| 231 |
+
"min_positive_household_count": 1000,
|
| 232 |
+
"start_year": 2086
|
| 233 |
+
},
|
| 234 |
+
{
|
| 235 |
+
"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 236 |
+
"end_year": null,
|
| 237 |
+
"max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
|
| 238 |
+
"max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
|
| 239 |
+
"max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 240 |
+
"max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
|
| 241 |
+
"max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
|
| 242 |
+
"min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
|
| 243 |
+
"min_positive_household_count": 1000,
|
| 244 |
+
"start_year": 2096
|
| 245 |
+
}
|
| 246 |
+
],
|
| 247 |
+
"benchmark_tob": false,
|
| 248 |
+
"calibration_method": "entropy",
|
| 249 |
+
"description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
|
| 250 |
+
"max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
|
| 251 |
+
"max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
|
| 252 |
+
"max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 253 |
+
"max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
|
| 254 |
+
"max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
|
| 255 |
+
"min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
|
| 256 |
+
"min_positive_household_count": 1000,
|
| 257 |
+
"name": "ss-payroll-tob",
|
| 258 |
+
"use_greg": false,
|
| 259 |
+
"use_h6_reform": false,
|
| 260 |
+
"use_payroll": true,
|
| 261 |
+
"use_ss": true,
|
| 262 |
+
"use_tob": true
|
| 263 |
+
},
|
| 264 |
+
"support_augmentation": {
|
| 265 |
+
"activation_start_year": 2075,
|
| 266 |
+
"blueprint_base_weight_scale": 5.0,
|
| 267 |
+
"clone_weight_scale": 0.1,
|
| 268 |
+
"donors_per_target": 5,
|
| 269 |
+
"family": "targeted_donor",
|
| 270 |
+
"max_distance_for_clone": 3.0,
|
| 271 |
+
"name": "donor-backed-composite-v1",
|
| 272 |
+
"non_target_income_sanitizer_mode": "none",
|
| 273 |
+
"report_file": "support_augmentation_report_2086.json",
|
| 274 |
+
"report_summary": {
|
| 275 |
+
"augmented_household_count": 61714,
|
| 276 |
+
"augmented_person_count": 153294,
|
| 277 |
+
"base_household_count": 41314,
|
| 278 |
+
"base_person_count": 101384,
|
| 279 |
+
"clone_household_count": 20400,
|
| 280 |
+
"role_composite_clone_count": 400,
|
| 281 |
+
"skipped_target_count": 0,
|
| 282 |
+
"successful_target_count": 400,
|
| 283 |
+
"tob_donor_clone_count": 20000
|
| 284 |
+
},
|
| 285 |
+
"sanitize_clone_non_target_income": false,
|
| 286 |
+
"sanitize_worker_non_target_income": false,
|
| 287 |
+
"support_solve_max_constraint_error_pct": 5.0,
|
| 288 |
+
"target_year": 2086,
|
| 289 |
+
"target_year_strategy": "run_year",
|
| 290 |
+
"tob_donor_clones_per_source": 40,
|
| 291 |
+
"tob_donor_max_weight_scale_multiplier": 10.0,
|
| 292 |
+
"tob_donor_min_weight_scale_multiplier": 0.1,
|
| 293 |
+
"tob_donor_top_n_sources": 500,
|
| 294 |
+
"tob_donor_weight_scale": 0.2,
|
| 295 |
+
"tob_donor_weighting_mode": "equal_contribution",
|
| 296 |
+
"top_n_targets": 20
|
| 297 |
+
},
|
| 298 |
+
"target_source": {
|
| 299 |
+
"baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
|
| 300 |
+
"description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
|
| 301 |
+
"file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
|
| 302 |
+
"name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
|
| 303 |
+
"not_law": false,
|
| 304 |
+
"notes": [
|
| 305 |
+
"Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
|
| 306 |
+
],
|
| 307 |
+
"sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
|
| 308 |
+
"source_urls": [
|
| 309 |
+
"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
|
| 310 |
+
"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
|
| 311 |
+
],
|
| 312 |
+
"type": "trustees_current_law"
|
| 313 |
+
},
|
| 314 |
+
"tax_assumption": {
|
| 315 |
+
"description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
|
| 316 |
+
"economic_assumption": "trustees-2025-nawi-v1",
|
| 317 |
+
"end_year": 2100,
|
| 318 |
+
"income_uprating_assumption": "trustees-2025-soi-income-nawi-v1",
|
| 319 |
+
"name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
|
| 320 |
+
"not_default_current_law": true,
|
| 321 |
+
"parameter_groups": [
|
| 322 |
+
"all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
|
| 323 |
+
],
|
| 324 |
+
"projection_base_year": 2026,
|
| 325 |
+
"source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
|
| 326 |
+
"start_year": 2035,
|
| 327 |
+
"uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating"
|
| 328 |
+
},
|
| 329 |
+
"year": 2086
|
| 330 |
+
}
|
staging/crfb-longrun-20260517/long_term/2087.h5.metadata.json
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,330 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
{
|
| 2 |
+
"base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5",
|
| 3 |
+
"base_dataset_snapshot": {
|
| 4 |
+
"requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5",
|
| 5 |
+
"resolved_file_sha256": "96965b0d9931d36beb29486b25fffee8b630e3b62c9376e7265976e02f7ab3ca",
|
| 6 |
+
"resolved_mtime_ns": 1778905303378497095,
|
| 7 |
+
"resolved_path": "/Users/maxghenis/.cache/huggingface/hub/models--policyengine--policyengine-us-data/blobs/96965b0d9931d36beb29486b25fffee8b630e3b62c9376e7265976e02f7ab3ca",
|
| 8 |
+
"resolved_size": 106261154
|
| 9 |
+
},
|
| 10 |
+
"calibration_audit": {
|
| 11 |
+
"age_bucket_count": 18,
|
| 12 |
+
"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 13 |
+
"age_max_pct_error": 1.947985075940206e-07,
|
| 14 |
+
"approximate_entropy_error": null,
|
| 15 |
+
"approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
|
| 16 |
+
"approximate_solution_used": false,
|
| 17 |
+
"approximation_method": null,
|
| 18 |
+
"baseline_weight_sum": 928977973.2597895,
|
| 19 |
+
"calibrated_weight_sum": 243872258.42375472,
|
| 20 |
+
"calibration_quality": "exact",
|
| 21 |
+
"clone_donor_family_count": 900,
|
| 22 |
+
"clone_donor_family_effective_sample_size": 62.6161655819912,
|
| 23 |
+
"clone_older_donor_count": 70,
|
| 24 |
+
"clone_older_donor_effective_sample_size": 28.387249925505408,
|
| 25 |
+
"clone_worker_donor_count": 100,
|
| 26 |
+
"clone_worker_donor_effective_sample_size": 42.80017431372828,
|
| 27 |
+
"constraint_provenance": {
|
| 28 |
+
"age_targets": {
|
| 29 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 30 |
+
"scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
|
| 31 |
+
"source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
|
| 32 |
+
},
|
| 33 |
+
"hi_tob": {
|
| 34 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 35 |
+
"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
|
| 36 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 37 |
+
},
|
| 38 |
+
"income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
|
| 39 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 40 |
+
"scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
|
| 41 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
|
| 42 |
+
},
|
| 43 |
+
"income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
|
| 44 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 45 |
+
"scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
|
| 46 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
|
| 47 |
+
},
|
| 48 |
+
"oasdi_tob": {
|
| 49 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 50 |
+
"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
|
| 51 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 52 |
+
},
|
| 53 |
+
"payroll_total": {
|
| 54 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 55 |
+
"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
|
| 56 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 57 |
+
},
|
| 58 |
+
"ss_total": {
|
| 59 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 60 |
+
"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
|
| 61 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 62 |
+
}
|
| 63 |
+
},
|
| 64 |
+
"constraints": {
|
| 65 |
+
"hi_tob": {
|
| 66 |
+
"achieved": 1090789002268.2413,
|
| 67 |
+
"error": 2268.2413330078125,
|
| 68 |
+
"pct_error": 2.0794501347261592e-07,
|
| 69 |
+
"target": 1090789000000.0
|
| 70 |
+
},
|
| 71 |
+
"income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
|
| 72 |
+
"achieved": 15804943180965.953,
|
| 73 |
+
"error": -146077.044921875,
|
| 74 |
+
"pct_error": -9.242490902952517e-07,
|
| 75 |
+
"target": 15804943327042.998
|
| 76 |
+
},
|
| 77 |
+
"income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
|
| 78 |
+
"achieved": 8802860745716.828,
|
| 79 |
+
"error": 1395784.70703125,
|
| 80 |
+
"pct_error": 1.5856037811645974e-05,
|
| 81 |
+
"target": 8802859349932.121
|
| 82 |
+
},
|
| 83 |
+
"oasdi_tob": {
|
| 84 |
+
"achieved": 1293945603508.9062,
|
| 85 |
+
"error": 3508.90625,
|
| 86 |
+
"pct_error": 2.711788076716672e-07,
|
| 87 |
+
"target": 1293945600000.0
|
| 88 |
+
},
|
| 89 |
+
"payroll_total": {
|
| 90 |
+
"achieved": 113504000015715.47,
|
| 91 |
+
"error": 15715.46875,
|
| 92 |
+
"pct_error": 1.3845740017972934e-08,
|
| 93 |
+
"target": 113504000000000.0
|
| 94 |
+
},
|
| 95 |
+
"ss_total": {
|
| 96 |
+
"achieved": 21300794119021.44,
|
| 97 |
+
"error": 19021.44140625,
|
| 98 |
+
"pct_error": 8.929921258780676e-08,
|
| 99 |
+
"target": 21300794100000.0
|
| 100 |
+
}
|
| 101 |
+
},
|
| 102 |
+
"donor_family_count": 41714,
|
| 103 |
+
"donor_family_effective_sample_size": 514.0917544623352,
|
| 104 |
+
"effective_sample_size": 514.848088777061,
|
| 105 |
+
"entropy_error": null,
|
| 106 |
+
"fell_back_to_ipf": false,
|
| 107 |
+
"greg_attempted": false,
|
| 108 |
+
"greg_error": null,
|
| 109 |
+
"hi_tob_contributor_count": 41714,
|
| 110 |
+
"hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 64.7445238930122,
|
| 111 |
+
"hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 9320,
|
| 112 |
+
"largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
|
| 113 |
+
"lp_fallback_used": false,
|
| 114 |
+
"max_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 4.727260141746586,
|
| 115 |
+
"max_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 7.822525598668598,
|
| 116 |
+
"max_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 4.766832078272472,
|
| 117 |
+
"max_constraint_pct_error": 1.5856037811645974e-05,
|
| 118 |
+
"max_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 1.329004599851862,
|
| 119 |
+
"max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 6.370701059885005,
|
| 120 |
+
"max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 4.733813073033558,
|
| 121 |
+
"max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 2.3067044296372954,
|
| 122 |
+
"max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 4.186053842561363,
|
| 123 |
+
"method_requested": "entropy",
|
| 124 |
+
"method_used": "entropy",
|
| 125 |
+
"negative_weight_count": 0,
|
| 126 |
+
"negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
|
| 127 |
+
"negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 128 |
+
"oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 41714,
|
| 129 |
+
"oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 78.22256043884859,
|
| 130 |
+
"oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 10179,
|
| 131 |
+
"payroll_total_contributor_count": 41714,
|
| 132 |
+
"payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 404.6498740209789,
|
| 133 |
+
"payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 34496,
|
| 134 |
+
"positive_clone_donor_family_count": 900,
|
| 135 |
+
"positive_clone_older_donor_count": 70,
|
| 136 |
+
"positive_clone_worker_donor_count": 100,
|
| 137 |
+
"positive_donor_family_count": 41714,
|
| 138 |
+
"positive_weight_count": 61714,
|
| 139 |
+
"positive_weight_pct": 100.0,
|
| 140 |
+
"ss_total_contributor_count": 41714,
|
| 141 |
+
"ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 134.78330865629488,
|
| 142 |
+
"ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 14560,
|
| 143 |
+
"support_blueprint": {
|
| 144 |
+
"base_weight_scale": 5.0,
|
| 145 |
+
"clone_household_count": 400,
|
| 146 |
+
"clone_total_prior_weight": 155874014.5580128,
|
| 147 |
+
"include_value_overrides": false,
|
| 148 |
+
"mode": "target_year_role_composite_blueprint",
|
| 149 |
+
"target_year": 2087,
|
| 150 |
+
"tob_donor_family_prior_regularization": {
|
| 151 |
+
"applied_max_multiplier": 1.2312511432229745,
|
| 152 |
+
"applied_median_multiplier": 1.0000004979617612,
|
| 153 |
+
"applied_min_multiplier": 0.1,
|
| 154 |
+
"contribution_target": 4.415700000000001e-06,
|
| 155 |
+
"family_count": 500,
|
| 156 |
+
"max_weight_scale_multiplier": 10.0,
|
| 157 |
+
"min_weight_scale_multiplier": 0.1,
|
| 158 |
+
"mode": "equal_contribution",
|
| 159 |
+
"score_mode": "hi_tob"
|
| 160 |
+
}
|
| 161 |
+
},
|
| 162 |
+
"top_100_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 75.19999294402494,
|
| 163 |
+
"top_100_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 99.99999999999999,
|
| 164 |
+
"top_100_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 100.0,
|
| 165 |
+
"top_100_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 32.7215482834375,
|
| 166 |
+
"top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 79.9518886115913,
|
| 167 |
+
"top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 76.65900816850824,
|
| 168 |
+
"top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 37.151893084466536,
|
| 169 |
+
"top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 61.5837472274837,
|
| 170 |
+
"top_100_weight_share_pct": 32.71677251260136,
|
| 171 |
+
"top_10_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 33.25884582323676,
|
| 172 |
+
"top_10_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 43.61136371976126,
|
| 173 |
+
"top_10_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 37.886321432096594,
|
| 174 |
+
"top_10_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 8.557336024972495,
|
| 175 |
+
"top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 29.97951045430975,
|
| 176 |
+
"top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 27.998274516698007,
|
| 177 |
+
"top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 8.946505166957461,
|
| 178 |
+
"top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 19.07445341791568,
|
| 179 |
+
"top_10_weight_share_pct": 8.557336024972495,
|
| 180 |
+
"validation_issues": [],
|
| 181 |
+
"validation_passed": true
|
| 182 |
+
},
|
| 183 |
+
"contract_version": 1,
|
| 184 |
+
"policyengine_us": {
|
| 185 |
+
"package_dir": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policyengine-us-data-crfb-pin/.venv/lib/python3.14/site-packages/policyengine_us",
|
| 186 |
+
"package_file": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policyengine-us-data-crfb-pin/.venv/lib/python3.14/site-packages/policyengine_us/__init__.py",
|
| 187 |
+
"package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
|
| 188 |
+
"package_mtime_ns": 1778950525391246940,
|
| 189 |
+
"package_size": 498,
|
| 190 |
+
"package_tree_file_count": 13229,
|
| 191 |
+
"package_tree_sha256": "22d87cadef959eba850e557b5552733353999e8b63570ca0cc448a98d4af78e9",
|
| 192 |
+
"package_tree_size": 20314316,
|
| 193 |
+
"version": "1.691.12"
|
| 194 |
+
},
|
| 195 |
+
"profile": {
|
| 196 |
+
"allow_greg_fallback": false,
|
| 197 |
+
"approximate_windows": [
|
| 198 |
+
{
|
| 199 |
+
"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 200 |
+
"end_year": 2078,
|
| 201 |
+
"max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
|
| 202 |
+
"max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
|
| 203 |
+
"max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 204 |
+
"max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
|
| 205 |
+
"max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
|
| 206 |
+
"min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
|
| 207 |
+
"min_positive_household_count": 1000,
|
| 208 |
+
"start_year": 2075
|
| 209 |
+
},
|
| 210 |
+
{
|
| 211 |
+
"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 212 |
+
"end_year": 2085,
|
| 213 |
+
"max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
|
| 214 |
+
"max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
|
| 215 |
+
"max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 216 |
+
"max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
|
| 217 |
+
"max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
|
| 218 |
+
"min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
|
| 219 |
+
"min_positive_household_count": 1000,
|
| 220 |
+
"start_year": 2079
|
| 221 |
+
},
|
| 222 |
+
{
|
| 223 |
+
"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 224 |
+
"end_year": 2095,
|
| 225 |
+
"max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
|
| 226 |
+
"max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
|
| 227 |
+
"max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 228 |
+
"max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
|
| 229 |
+
"max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
|
| 230 |
+
"min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
|
| 231 |
+
"min_positive_household_count": 1000,
|
| 232 |
+
"start_year": 2086
|
| 233 |
+
},
|
| 234 |
+
{
|
| 235 |
+
"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 236 |
+
"end_year": null,
|
| 237 |
+
"max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
|
| 238 |
+
"max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
|
| 239 |
+
"max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 240 |
+
"max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
|
| 241 |
+
"max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
|
| 242 |
+
"min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
|
| 243 |
+
"min_positive_household_count": 1000,
|
| 244 |
+
"start_year": 2096
|
| 245 |
+
}
|
| 246 |
+
],
|
| 247 |
+
"benchmark_tob": false,
|
| 248 |
+
"calibration_method": "entropy",
|
| 249 |
+
"description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
|
| 250 |
+
"max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
|
| 251 |
+
"max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
|
| 252 |
+
"max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 253 |
+
"max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
|
| 254 |
+
"max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
|
| 255 |
+
"min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
|
| 256 |
+
"min_positive_household_count": 1000,
|
| 257 |
+
"name": "ss-payroll-tob",
|
| 258 |
+
"use_greg": false,
|
| 259 |
+
"use_h6_reform": false,
|
| 260 |
+
"use_payroll": true,
|
| 261 |
+
"use_ss": true,
|
| 262 |
+
"use_tob": true
|
| 263 |
+
},
|
| 264 |
+
"support_augmentation": {
|
| 265 |
+
"activation_start_year": 2075,
|
| 266 |
+
"blueprint_base_weight_scale": 5.0,
|
| 267 |
+
"clone_weight_scale": 0.1,
|
| 268 |
+
"donors_per_target": 5,
|
| 269 |
+
"family": "targeted_donor",
|
| 270 |
+
"max_distance_for_clone": 3.0,
|
| 271 |
+
"name": "donor-backed-composite-v1",
|
| 272 |
+
"non_target_income_sanitizer_mode": "none",
|
| 273 |
+
"report_file": "support_augmentation_report_2087.json",
|
| 274 |
+
"report_summary": {
|
| 275 |
+
"augmented_household_count": 61714,
|
| 276 |
+
"augmented_person_count": 153094,
|
| 277 |
+
"base_household_count": 41314,
|
| 278 |
+
"base_person_count": 101384,
|
| 279 |
+
"clone_household_count": 20400,
|
| 280 |
+
"role_composite_clone_count": 400,
|
| 281 |
+
"skipped_target_count": 0,
|
| 282 |
+
"successful_target_count": 400,
|
| 283 |
+
"tob_donor_clone_count": 20000
|
| 284 |
+
},
|
| 285 |
+
"sanitize_clone_non_target_income": false,
|
| 286 |
+
"sanitize_worker_non_target_income": false,
|
| 287 |
+
"support_solve_max_constraint_error_pct": 5.0,
|
| 288 |
+
"target_year": 2087,
|
| 289 |
+
"target_year_strategy": "run_year",
|
| 290 |
+
"tob_donor_clones_per_source": 40,
|
| 291 |
+
"tob_donor_max_weight_scale_multiplier": 10.0,
|
| 292 |
+
"tob_donor_min_weight_scale_multiplier": 0.1,
|
| 293 |
+
"tob_donor_top_n_sources": 500,
|
| 294 |
+
"tob_donor_weight_scale": 0.2,
|
| 295 |
+
"tob_donor_weighting_mode": "equal_contribution",
|
| 296 |
+
"top_n_targets": 20
|
| 297 |
+
},
|
| 298 |
+
"target_source": {
|
| 299 |
+
"baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
|
| 300 |
+
"description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
|
| 301 |
+
"file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
|
| 302 |
+
"name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
|
| 303 |
+
"not_law": false,
|
| 304 |
+
"notes": [
|
| 305 |
+
"Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
|
| 306 |
+
],
|
| 307 |
+
"sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
|
| 308 |
+
"source_urls": [
|
| 309 |
+
"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
|
| 310 |
+
"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
|
| 311 |
+
],
|
| 312 |
+
"type": "trustees_current_law"
|
| 313 |
+
},
|
| 314 |
+
"tax_assumption": {
|
| 315 |
+
"description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
|
| 316 |
+
"economic_assumption": "trustees-2025-nawi-v1",
|
| 317 |
+
"end_year": 2100,
|
| 318 |
+
"income_uprating_assumption": "trustees-2025-soi-income-nawi-v1",
|
| 319 |
+
"name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
|
| 320 |
+
"not_default_current_law": true,
|
| 321 |
+
"parameter_groups": [
|
| 322 |
+
"all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
|
| 323 |
+
],
|
| 324 |
+
"projection_base_year": 2026,
|
| 325 |
+
"source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
|
| 326 |
+
"start_year": 2035,
|
| 327 |
+
"uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating"
|
| 328 |
+
},
|
| 329 |
+
"year": 2087
|
| 330 |
+
}
|
staging/crfb-longrun-20260517/long_term/2088.h5.metadata.json
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,330 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
{
|
| 2 |
+
"base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5",
|
| 3 |
+
"base_dataset_snapshot": {
|
| 4 |
+
"requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5",
|
| 5 |
+
"resolved_file_sha256": "96965b0d9931d36beb29486b25fffee8b630e3b62c9376e7265976e02f7ab3ca",
|
| 6 |
+
"resolved_mtime_ns": 1778905303378497095,
|
| 7 |
+
"resolved_path": "/Users/maxghenis/.cache/huggingface/hub/models--policyengine--policyengine-us-data/blobs/96965b0d9931d36beb29486b25fffee8b630e3b62c9376e7265976e02f7ab3ca",
|
| 8 |
+
"resolved_size": 106261154
|
| 9 |
+
},
|
| 10 |
+
"calibration_audit": {
|
| 11 |
+
"age_bucket_count": 18,
|
| 12 |
+
"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 13 |
+
"age_max_pct_error": 6.175708618010267e-08,
|
| 14 |
+
"approximate_entropy_error": null,
|
| 15 |
+
"approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
|
| 16 |
+
"approximate_solution_used": false,
|
| 17 |
+
"approximation_method": null,
|
| 18 |
+
"baseline_weight_sum": 929022046.724187,
|
| 19 |
+
"calibrated_weight_sum": 245780949.98777983,
|
| 20 |
+
"calibration_quality": "exact",
|
| 21 |
+
"clone_donor_family_count": 875,
|
| 22 |
+
"clone_donor_family_effective_sample_size": 54.814578515604666,
|
| 23 |
+
"clone_older_donor_count": 68,
|
| 24 |
+
"clone_older_donor_effective_sample_size": 22.320607898476016,
|
| 25 |
+
"clone_worker_donor_count": 95,
|
| 26 |
+
"clone_worker_donor_effective_sample_size": 42.485376301395554,
|
| 27 |
+
"constraint_provenance": {
|
| 28 |
+
"age_targets": {
|
| 29 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 30 |
+
"scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
|
| 31 |
+
"source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
|
| 32 |
+
},
|
| 33 |
+
"hi_tob": {
|
| 34 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 35 |
+
"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
|
| 36 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 37 |
+
},
|
| 38 |
+
"income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
|
| 39 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 40 |
+
"scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
|
| 41 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
|
| 42 |
+
},
|
| 43 |
+
"income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
|
| 44 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 45 |
+
"scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
|
| 46 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
|
| 47 |
+
},
|
| 48 |
+
"oasdi_tob": {
|
| 49 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 50 |
+
"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
|
| 51 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 52 |
+
},
|
| 53 |
+
"payroll_total": {
|
| 54 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 55 |
+
"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
|
| 56 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 57 |
+
},
|
| 58 |
+
"ss_total": {
|
| 59 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 60 |
+
"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
|
| 61 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 62 |
+
}
|
| 63 |
+
},
|
| 64 |
+
"constraints": {
|
| 65 |
+
"hi_tob": {
|
| 66 |
+
"achieved": 1130016001074.793,
|
| 67 |
+
"error": 1074.79296875,
|
| 68 |
+
"pct_error": 9.511307527946507e-08,
|
| 69 |
+
"target": 1130016000000.0
|
| 70 |
+
},
|
| 71 |
+
"income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
|
| 72 |
+
"achieved": 16349565026867.541,
|
| 73 |
+
"error": 121769.966796875,
|
| 74 |
+
"pct_error": 7.447902589683519e-07,
|
| 75 |
+
"target": 16349564905097.574
|
| 76 |
+
},
|
| 77 |
+
"income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
|
| 78 |
+
"achieved": 9114865377264.613,
|
| 79 |
+
"error": 136438.98828125,
|
| 80 |
+
"pct_error": 1.4968843167328206e-06,
|
| 81 |
+
"target": 9114865240825.625
|
| 82 |
+
},
|
| 83 |
+
"oasdi_tob": {
|
| 84 |
+
"achieved": 1344892201648.6682,
|
| 85 |
+
"error": 1648.668212890625,
|
| 86 |
+
"pct_error": 1.2258738751630984e-07,
|
| 87 |
+
"target": 1344892200000.0
|
| 88 |
+
},
|
| 89 |
+
"payroll_total": {
|
| 90 |
+
"achieved": 117973000009944.19,
|
| 91 |
+
"error": 9944.1875,
|
| 92 |
+
"pct_error": 8.429206259059276e-09,
|
| 93 |
+
"target": 117973000000000.0
|
| 94 |
+
},
|
| 95 |
+
"ss_total": {
|
| 96 |
+
"achieved": 22066100809390.04,
|
| 97 |
+
"error": 9390.0390625,
|
| 98 |
+
"pct_error": 4.255413834826677e-08,
|
| 99 |
+
"target": 22066100800000.0
|
| 100 |
+
}
|
| 101 |
+
},
|
| 102 |
+
"donor_family_count": 41689,
|
| 103 |
+
"donor_family_effective_sample_size": 496.65348631346694,
|
| 104 |
+
"effective_sample_size": 498.0322316761015,
|
| 105 |
+
"entropy_error": null,
|
| 106 |
+
"fell_back_to_ipf": false,
|
| 107 |
+
"greg_attempted": false,
|
| 108 |
+
"greg_error": null,
|
| 109 |
+
"hi_tob_contributor_count": 41689,
|
| 110 |
+
"hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 59.41594654856689,
|
| 111 |
+
"hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 9306,
|
| 112 |
+
"largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
|
| 113 |
+
"lp_fallback_used": false,
|
| 114 |
+
"max_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 5.051849829904665,
|
| 115 |
+
"max_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 10.590465289286845,
|
| 116 |
+
"max_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 5.103161035801086,
|
| 117 |
+
"max_constraint_pct_error": 1.4968843167328206e-06,
|
| 118 |
+
"max_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 1.4710633346556181,
|
| 119 |
+
"max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 6.119601134996459,
|
| 120 |
+
"max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 4.8530812867846045,
|
| 121 |
+
"max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 2.4102618405042175,
|
| 122 |
+
"max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 4.064434748246954,
|
| 123 |
+
"method_requested": "entropy",
|
| 124 |
+
"method_used": "entropy",
|
| 125 |
+
"negative_weight_count": 0,
|
| 126 |
+
"negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
|
| 127 |
+
"negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 128 |
+
"oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 41689,
|
| 129 |
+
"oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 69.04558766250499,
|
| 130 |
+
"oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 10212,
|
| 131 |
+
"payroll_total_contributor_count": 41689,
|
| 132 |
+
"payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 376.13491156278036,
|
| 133 |
+
"payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 34471,
|
| 134 |
+
"positive_clone_donor_family_count": 875,
|
| 135 |
+
"positive_clone_older_donor_count": 68,
|
| 136 |
+
"positive_clone_worker_donor_count": 95,
|
| 137 |
+
"positive_donor_family_count": 41689,
|
| 138 |
+
"positive_weight_count": 61694,
|
| 139 |
+
"positive_weight_pct": 100.0,
|
| 140 |
+
"ss_total_contributor_count": 41689,
|
| 141 |
+
"ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 124.95338680615941,
|
| 142 |
+
"ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 14535,
|
| 143 |
+
"support_blueprint": {
|
| 144 |
+
"base_weight_scale": 5.0,
|
| 145 |
+
"clone_household_count": 380,
|
| 146 |
+
"clone_total_prior_weight": 155918088.02241024,
|
| 147 |
+
"include_value_overrides": false,
|
| 148 |
+
"mode": "target_year_role_composite_blueprint",
|
| 149 |
+
"target_year": 2088,
|
| 150 |
+
"tob_donor_family_prior_regularization": {
|
| 151 |
+
"applied_max_multiplier": 1.230582417097187,
|
| 152 |
+
"applied_median_multiplier": 1.0000000115877667,
|
| 153 |
+
"applied_min_multiplier": 0.1,
|
| 154 |
+
"contribution_target": 4.570516e-06,
|
| 155 |
+
"family_count": 500,
|
| 156 |
+
"max_weight_scale_multiplier": 10.0,
|
| 157 |
+
"min_weight_scale_multiplier": 0.1,
|
| 158 |
+
"mode": "equal_contribution",
|
| 159 |
+
"score_mode": "hi_tob"
|
| 160 |
+
}
|
| 161 |
+
},
|
| 162 |
+
"top_100_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 79.50856446946561,
|
| 163 |
+
"top_100_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 100.00000000000004,
|
| 164 |
+
"top_100_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 99.99999999999996,
|
| 165 |
+
"top_100_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 33.11278047574254,
|
| 166 |
+
"top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 81.78025315886049,
|
| 167 |
+
"top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 78.3117685145539,
|
| 168 |
+
"top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 38.43582604687407,
|
| 169 |
+
"top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 64.44819044996876,
|
| 170 |
+
"top_100_weight_share_pct": 33.08079725915831,
|
| 171 |
+
"top_10_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 35.00185439916434,
|
| 172 |
+
"top_10_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 51.09915201509318,
|
| 173 |
+
"top_10_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 36.4055383590652,
|
| 174 |
+
"top_10_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 8.723556542224639,
|
| 175 |
+
"top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 32.100792217712474,
|
| 176 |
+
"top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 30.89949572637019,
|
| 177 |
+
"top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 9.368261735975949,
|
| 178 |
+
"top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 20.122657123029388,
|
| 179 |
+
"top_10_weight_share_pct": 8.723556542224637,
|
| 180 |
+
"validation_issues": [],
|
| 181 |
+
"validation_passed": true
|
| 182 |
+
},
|
| 183 |
+
"contract_version": 1,
|
| 184 |
+
"policyengine_us": {
|
| 185 |
+
"package_dir": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policyengine-us-data-crfb-pin/.venv/lib/python3.14/site-packages/policyengine_us",
|
| 186 |
+
"package_file": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policyengine-us-data-crfb-pin/.venv/lib/python3.14/site-packages/policyengine_us/__init__.py",
|
| 187 |
+
"package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
|
| 188 |
+
"package_mtime_ns": 1778950525391246940,
|
| 189 |
+
"package_size": 498,
|
| 190 |
+
"package_tree_file_count": 13229,
|
| 191 |
+
"package_tree_sha256": "22d87cadef959eba850e557b5552733353999e8b63570ca0cc448a98d4af78e9",
|
| 192 |
+
"package_tree_size": 20314316,
|
| 193 |
+
"version": "1.691.12"
|
| 194 |
+
},
|
| 195 |
+
"profile": {
|
| 196 |
+
"allow_greg_fallback": false,
|
| 197 |
+
"approximate_windows": [
|
| 198 |
+
{
|
| 199 |
+
"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 200 |
+
"end_year": 2078,
|
| 201 |
+
"max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
|
| 202 |
+
"max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
|
| 203 |
+
"max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 204 |
+
"max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
|
| 205 |
+
"max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
|
| 206 |
+
"min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
|
| 207 |
+
"min_positive_household_count": 1000,
|
| 208 |
+
"start_year": 2075
|
| 209 |
+
},
|
| 210 |
+
{
|
| 211 |
+
"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 212 |
+
"end_year": 2085,
|
| 213 |
+
"max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
|
| 214 |
+
"max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
|
| 215 |
+
"max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 216 |
+
"max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
|
| 217 |
+
"max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
|
| 218 |
+
"min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
|
| 219 |
+
"min_positive_household_count": 1000,
|
| 220 |
+
"start_year": 2079
|
| 221 |
+
},
|
| 222 |
+
{
|
| 223 |
+
"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 224 |
+
"end_year": 2095,
|
| 225 |
+
"max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
|
| 226 |
+
"max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
|
| 227 |
+
"max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 228 |
+
"max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
|
| 229 |
+
"max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
|
| 230 |
+
"min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
|
| 231 |
+
"min_positive_household_count": 1000,
|
| 232 |
+
"start_year": 2086
|
| 233 |
+
},
|
| 234 |
+
{
|
| 235 |
+
"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 236 |
+
"end_year": null,
|
| 237 |
+
"max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
|
| 238 |
+
"max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
|
| 239 |
+
"max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 240 |
+
"max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
|
| 241 |
+
"max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
|
| 242 |
+
"min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
|
| 243 |
+
"min_positive_household_count": 1000,
|
| 244 |
+
"start_year": 2096
|
| 245 |
+
}
|
| 246 |
+
],
|
| 247 |
+
"benchmark_tob": false,
|
| 248 |
+
"calibration_method": "entropy",
|
| 249 |
+
"description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
|
| 250 |
+
"max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
|
| 251 |
+
"max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
|
| 252 |
+
"max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 253 |
+
"max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
|
| 254 |
+
"max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
|
| 255 |
+
"min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
|
| 256 |
+
"min_positive_household_count": 1000,
|
| 257 |
+
"name": "ss-payroll-tob",
|
| 258 |
+
"use_greg": false,
|
| 259 |
+
"use_h6_reform": false,
|
| 260 |
+
"use_payroll": true,
|
| 261 |
+
"use_ss": true,
|
| 262 |
+
"use_tob": true
|
| 263 |
+
},
|
| 264 |
+
"support_augmentation": {
|
| 265 |
+
"activation_start_year": 2075,
|
| 266 |
+
"blueprint_base_weight_scale": 5.0,
|
| 267 |
+
"clone_weight_scale": 0.1,
|
| 268 |
+
"donors_per_target": 5,
|
| 269 |
+
"family": "targeted_donor",
|
| 270 |
+
"max_distance_for_clone": 3.0,
|
| 271 |
+
"name": "donor-backed-composite-v1",
|
| 272 |
+
"non_target_income_sanitizer_mode": "none",
|
| 273 |
+
"report_file": "support_augmentation_report_2088.json",
|
| 274 |
+
"report_summary": {
|
| 275 |
+
"augmented_household_count": 61694,
|
| 276 |
+
"augmented_person_count": 152754,
|
| 277 |
+
"base_household_count": 41314,
|
| 278 |
+
"base_person_count": 101384,
|
| 279 |
+
"clone_household_count": 20380,
|
| 280 |
+
"role_composite_clone_count": 380,
|
| 281 |
+
"skipped_target_count": 0,
|
| 282 |
+
"successful_target_count": 380,
|
| 283 |
+
"tob_donor_clone_count": 20000
|
| 284 |
+
},
|
| 285 |
+
"sanitize_clone_non_target_income": false,
|
| 286 |
+
"sanitize_worker_non_target_income": false,
|
| 287 |
+
"support_solve_max_constraint_error_pct": 5.0,
|
| 288 |
+
"target_year": 2088,
|
| 289 |
+
"target_year_strategy": "run_year",
|
| 290 |
+
"tob_donor_clones_per_source": 40,
|
| 291 |
+
"tob_donor_max_weight_scale_multiplier": 10.0,
|
| 292 |
+
"tob_donor_min_weight_scale_multiplier": 0.1,
|
| 293 |
+
"tob_donor_top_n_sources": 500,
|
| 294 |
+
"tob_donor_weight_scale": 0.2,
|
| 295 |
+
"tob_donor_weighting_mode": "equal_contribution",
|
| 296 |
+
"top_n_targets": 20
|
| 297 |
+
},
|
| 298 |
+
"target_source": {
|
| 299 |
+
"baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
|
| 300 |
+
"description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
|
| 301 |
+
"file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
|
| 302 |
+
"name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
|
| 303 |
+
"not_law": false,
|
| 304 |
+
"notes": [
|
| 305 |
+
"Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
|
| 306 |
+
],
|
| 307 |
+
"sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
|
| 308 |
+
"source_urls": [
|
| 309 |
+
"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
|
| 310 |
+
"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
|
| 311 |
+
],
|
| 312 |
+
"type": "trustees_current_law"
|
| 313 |
+
},
|
| 314 |
+
"tax_assumption": {
|
| 315 |
+
"description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
|
| 316 |
+
"economic_assumption": "trustees-2025-nawi-v1",
|
| 317 |
+
"end_year": 2100,
|
| 318 |
+
"income_uprating_assumption": "trustees-2025-soi-income-nawi-v1",
|
| 319 |
+
"name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
|
| 320 |
+
"not_default_current_law": true,
|
| 321 |
+
"parameter_groups": [
|
| 322 |
+
"all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
|
| 323 |
+
],
|
| 324 |
+
"projection_base_year": 2026,
|
| 325 |
+
"source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
|
| 326 |
+
"start_year": 2035,
|
| 327 |
+
"uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating"
|
| 328 |
+
},
|
| 329 |
+
"year": 2088
|
| 330 |
+
}
|
staging/crfb-longrun-20260517/long_term/2089.h5.metadata.json
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,330 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
{
|
| 2 |
+
"base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5",
|
| 3 |
+
"base_dataset_snapshot": {
|
| 4 |
+
"requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5",
|
| 5 |
+
"resolved_file_sha256": "96965b0d9931d36beb29486b25fffee8b630e3b62c9376e7265976e02f7ab3ca",
|
| 6 |
+
"resolved_mtime_ns": 1778905303378497095,
|
| 7 |
+
"resolved_path": "/Users/maxghenis/.cache/huggingface/hub/models--policyengine--policyengine-us-data/blobs/96965b0d9931d36beb29486b25fffee8b630e3b62c9376e7265976e02f7ab3ca",
|
| 8 |
+
"resolved_size": 106261154
|
| 9 |
+
},
|
| 10 |
+
"calibration_audit": {
|
| 11 |
+
"age_bucket_count": 18,
|
| 12 |
+
"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 13 |
+
"age_max_pct_error": 5.877458362977861e-08,
|
| 14 |
+
"approximate_entropy_error": null,
|
| 15 |
+
"approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
|
| 16 |
+
"approximate_solution_used": false,
|
| 17 |
+
"approximation_method": null,
|
| 18 |
+
"baseline_weight_sum": 929022046.7059579,
|
| 19 |
+
"calibrated_weight_sum": 246389741.9870655,
|
| 20 |
+
"calibration_quality": "exact",
|
| 21 |
+
"clone_donor_family_count": 875,
|
| 22 |
+
"clone_donor_family_effective_sample_size": 55.593720060305806,
|
| 23 |
+
"clone_older_donor_count": 68,
|
| 24 |
+
"clone_older_donor_effective_sample_size": 22.690275719586456,
|
| 25 |
+
"clone_worker_donor_count": 95,
|
| 26 |
+
"clone_worker_donor_effective_sample_size": 42.87168797082136,
|
| 27 |
+
"constraint_provenance": {
|
| 28 |
+
"age_targets": {
|
| 29 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 30 |
+
"scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
|
| 31 |
+
"source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
|
| 32 |
+
},
|
| 33 |
+
"hi_tob": {
|
| 34 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 35 |
+
"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
|
| 36 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 37 |
+
},
|
| 38 |
+
"income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
|
| 39 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 40 |
+
"scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
|
| 41 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
|
| 42 |
+
},
|
| 43 |
+
"income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
|
| 44 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 45 |
+
"scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
|
| 46 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
|
| 47 |
+
},
|
| 48 |
+
"oasdi_tob": {
|
| 49 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 50 |
+
"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
|
| 51 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 52 |
+
},
|
| 53 |
+
"payroll_total": {
|
| 54 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 55 |
+
"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
|
| 56 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 57 |
+
},
|
| 58 |
+
"ss_total": {
|
| 59 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 60 |
+
"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
|
| 61 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 62 |
+
}
|
| 63 |
+
},
|
| 64 |
+
"constraints": {
|
| 65 |
+
"hi_tob": {
|
| 66 |
+
"achieved": 1170571001063.0586,
|
| 67 |
+
"error": 1063.05859375,
|
| 68 |
+
"pct_error": 9.08153878534493e-08,
|
| 69 |
+
"target": 1170571000000.0
|
| 70 |
+
},
|
| 71 |
+
"income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
|
| 72 |
+
"achieved": 16891140213217.578,
|
| 73 |
+
"error": 147529.126953125,
|
| 74 |
+
"pct_error": 8.734113054500444e-07,
|
| 75 |
+
"target": 16891140065688.451
|
| 76 |
+
},
|
| 77 |
+
"income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
|
| 78 |
+
"achieved": 9439539262103.938,
|
| 79 |
+
"error": 134615.140625,
|
| 80 |
+
"pct_error": 1.426077468475007e-06,
|
| 81 |
+
"target": 9439539127488.797
|
| 82 |
+
},
|
| 83 |
+
"oasdi_tob": {
|
| 84 |
+
"achieved": 1385707701621.3447,
|
| 85 |
+
"error": 1621.3447265625,
|
| 86 |
+
"pct_error": 1.1700481469234096e-07,
|
| 87 |
+
"target": 1385707700000.0
|
| 88 |
+
},
|
| 89 |
+
"payroll_total": {
|
| 90 |
+
"achieved": 122629000010172.03,
|
| 91 |
+
"error": 10172.03125,
|
| 92 |
+
"pct_error": 8.294963874776766e-09,
|
| 93 |
+
"target": 122629000000000.0
|
| 94 |
+
},
|
| 95 |
+
"ss_total": {
|
| 96 |
+
"achieved": 22860399609291.19,
|
| 97 |
+
"error": 9291.19140625,
|
| 98 |
+
"pct_error": 4.0643171461665964e-08,
|
| 99 |
+
"target": 22860399600000.0
|
| 100 |
+
}
|
| 101 |
+
},
|
| 102 |
+
"donor_family_count": 41689,
|
| 103 |
+
"donor_family_effective_sample_size": 496.4108007839129,
|
| 104 |
+
"effective_sample_size": 497.8936338193232,
|
| 105 |
+
"entropy_error": null,
|
| 106 |
+
"fell_back_to_ipf": false,
|
| 107 |
+
"greg_attempted": false,
|
| 108 |
+
"greg_error": null,
|
| 109 |
+
"hi_tob_contributor_count": 41689,
|
| 110 |
+
"hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 58.50421647647571,
|
| 111 |
+
"hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 9311,
|
| 112 |
+
"largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
|
| 113 |
+
"lp_fallback_used": false,
|
| 114 |
+
"max_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 5.017745125358018,
|
| 115 |
+
"max_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 10.757820316197607,
|
| 116 |
+
"max_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 5.071024399070307,
|
| 117 |
+
"max_constraint_pct_error": 1.426077468475007e-06,
|
| 118 |
+
"max_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 1.472742050838854,
|
| 119 |
+
"max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 6.077433076731551,
|
| 120 |
+
"max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 4.965117880350434,
|
| 121 |
+
"max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 2.4196190528176307,
|
| 122 |
+
"max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 4.077852586825522,
|
| 123 |
+
"method_requested": "entropy",
|
| 124 |
+
"method_used": "entropy",
|
| 125 |
+
"negative_weight_count": 0,
|
| 126 |
+
"negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
|
| 127 |
+
"negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 128 |
+
"oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 41689,
|
| 129 |
+
"oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 68.88264062084262,
|
| 130 |
+
"oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 10259,
|
| 131 |
+
"payroll_total_contributor_count": 41689,
|
| 132 |
+
"payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 375.7356349881058,
|
| 133 |
+
"payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 34471,
|
| 134 |
+
"positive_clone_donor_family_count": 875,
|
| 135 |
+
"positive_clone_older_donor_count": 68,
|
| 136 |
+
"positive_clone_worker_donor_count": 95,
|
| 137 |
+
"positive_donor_family_count": 41689,
|
| 138 |
+
"positive_weight_count": 61694,
|
| 139 |
+
"positive_weight_pct": 100.0,
|
| 140 |
+
"ss_total_contributor_count": 41689,
|
| 141 |
+
"ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 122.46280812419172,
|
| 142 |
+
"ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 14535,
|
| 143 |
+
"support_blueprint": {
|
| 144 |
+
"base_weight_scale": 5.0,
|
| 145 |
+
"clone_household_count": 380,
|
| 146 |
+
"clone_total_prior_weight": 155918088.0268294,
|
| 147 |
+
"include_value_overrides": false,
|
| 148 |
+
"mode": "target_year_role_composite_blueprint",
|
| 149 |
+
"target_year": 2089,
|
| 150 |
+
"tob_donor_family_prior_regularization": {
|
| 151 |
+
"applied_max_multiplier": 1.2391304347826086,
|
| 152 |
+
"applied_median_multiplier": 0.9999999999999999,
|
| 153 |
+
"applied_min_multiplier": 0.1,
|
| 154 |
+
"contribution_target": 4.786175999999999e-06,
|
| 155 |
+
"family_count": 500,
|
| 156 |
+
"max_weight_scale_multiplier": 10.0,
|
| 157 |
+
"min_weight_scale_multiplier": 0.1,
|
| 158 |
+
"mode": "equal_contribution",
|
| 159 |
+
"score_mode": "hi_tob"
|
| 160 |
+
}
|
| 161 |
+
},
|
| 162 |
+
"top_100_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 78.59861160779376,
|
| 163 |
+
"top_100_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 100.0,
|
| 164 |
+
"top_100_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 99.99999999999997,
|
| 165 |
+
"top_100_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 33.081862263920506,
|
| 166 |
+
"top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 81.8137308647799,
|
| 167 |
+
"top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 78.19247734333862,
|
| 168 |
+
"top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 38.476635884089575,
|
| 169 |
+
"top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 64.68950387607187,
|
| 170 |
+
"top_100_weight_share_pct": 33.047826728862795,
|
| 171 |
+
"top_10_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 34.655040467952524,
|
| 172 |
+
"top_10_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 50.21851393223472,
|
| 173 |
+
"top_10_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 36.125392987061474,
|
| 174 |
+
"top_10_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 8.743809519435025,
|
| 175 |
+
"top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 32.67270548661141,
|
| 176 |
+
"top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 30.728197217821634,
|
| 177 |
+
"top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 9.371281529939367,
|
| 178 |
+
"top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 20.581326340372083,
|
| 179 |
+
"top_10_weight_share_pct": 8.743809519435027,
|
| 180 |
+
"validation_issues": [],
|
| 181 |
+
"validation_passed": true
|
| 182 |
+
},
|
| 183 |
+
"contract_version": 1,
|
| 184 |
+
"policyengine_us": {
|
| 185 |
+
"package_dir": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policyengine-us-data-crfb-pin/.venv/lib/python3.14/site-packages/policyengine_us",
|
| 186 |
+
"package_file": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policyengine-us-data-crfb-pin/.venv/lib/python3.14/site-packages/policyengine_us/__init__.py",
|
| 187 |
+
"package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
|
| 188 |
+
"package_mtime_ns": 1778950525391246940,
|
| 189 |
+
"package_size": 498,
|
| 190 |
+
"package_tree_file_count": 13229,
|
| 191 |
+
"package_tree_sha256": "22d87cadef959eba850e557b5552733353999e8b63570ca0cc448a98d4af78e9",
|
| 192 |
+
"package_tree_size": 20314316,
|
| 193 |
+
"version": "1.691.12"
|
| 194 |
+
},
|
| 195 |
+
"profile": {
|
| 196 |
+
"allow_greg_fallback": false,
|
| 197 |
+
"approximate_windows": [
|
| 198 |
+
{
|
| 199 |
+
"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 200 |
+
"end_year": 2078,
|
| 201 |
+
"max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
|
| 202 |
+
"max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
|
| 203 |
+
"max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 204 |
+
"max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
|
| 205 |
+
"max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
|
| 206 |
+
"min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
|
| 207 |
+
"min_positive_household_count": 1000,
|
| 208 |
+
"start_year": 2075
|
| 209 |
+
},
|
| 210 |
+
{
|
| 211 |
+
"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 212 |
+
"end_year": 2085,
|
| 213 |
+
"max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
|
| 214 |
+
"max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
|
| 215 |
+
"max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 216 |
+
"max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
|
| 217 |
+
"max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
|
| 218 |
+
"min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
|
| 219 |
+
"min_positive_household_count": 1000,
|
| 220 |
+
"start_year": 2079
|
| 221 |
+
},
|
| 222 |
+
{
|
| 223 |
+
"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 224 |
+
"end_year": 2095,
|
| 225 |
+
"max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
|
| 226 |
+
"max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
|
| 227 |
+
"max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 228 |
+
"max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
|
| 229 |
+
"max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
|
| 230 |
+
"min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
|
| 231 |
+
"min_positive_household_count": 1000,
|
| 232 |
+
"start_year": 2086
|
| 233 |
+
},
|
| 234 |
+
{
|
| 235 |
+
"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 236 |
+
"end_year": null,
|
| 237 |
+
"max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
|
| 238 |
+
"max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
|
| 239 |
+
"max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 240 |
+
"max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
|
| 241 |
+
"max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
|
| 242 |
+
"min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
|
| 243 |
+
"min_positive_household_count": 1000,
|
| 244 |
+
"start_year": 2096
|
| 245 |
+
}
|
| 246 |
+
],
|
| 247 |
+
"benchmark_tob": false,
|
| 248 |
+
"calibration_method": "entropy",
|
| 249 |
+
"description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
|
| 250 |
+
"max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
|
| 251 |
+
"max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
|
| 252 |
+
"max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 253 |
+
"max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
|
| 254 |
+
"max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
|
| 255 |
+
"min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
|
| 256 |
+
"min_positive_household_count": 1000,
|
| 257 |
+
"name": "ss-payroll-tob",
|
| 258 |
+
"use_greg": false,
|
| 259 |
+
"use_h6_reform": false,
|
| 260 |
+
"use_payroll": true,
|
| 261 |
+
"use_ss": true,
|
| 262 |
+
"use_tob": true
|
| 263 |
+
},
|
| 264 |
+
"support_augmentation": {
|
| 265 |
+
"activation_start_year": 2075,
|
| 266 |
+
"blueprint_base_weight_scale": 5.0,
|
| 267 |
+
"clone_weight_scale": 0.1,
|
| 268 |
+
"donors_per_target": 5,
|
| 269 |
+
"family": "targeted_donor",
|
| 270 |
+
"max_distance_for_clone": 3.0,
|
| 271 |
+
"name": "donor-backed-composite-v1",
|
| 272 |
+
"non_target_income_sanitizer_mode": "none",
|
| 273 |
+
"report_file": "support_augmentation_report_2089.json",
|
| 274 |
+
"report_summary": {
|
| 275 |
+
"augmented_household_count": 61694,
|
| 276 |
+
"augmented_person_count": 152274,
|
| 277 |
+
"base_household_count": 41314,
|
| 278 |
+
"base_person_count": 101384,
|
| 279 |
+
"clone_household_count": 20380,
|
| 280 |
+
"role_composite_clone_count": 380,
|
| 281 |
+
"skipped_target_count": 0,
|
| 282 |
+
"successful_target_count": 380,
|
| 283 |
+
"tob_donor_clone_count": 20000
|
| 284 |
+
},
|
| 285 |
+
"sanitize_clone_non_target_income": false,
|
| 286 |
+
"sanitize_worker_non_target_income": false,
|
| 287 |
+
"support_solve_max_constraint_error_pct": 5.0,
|
| 288 |
+
"target_year": 2089,
|
| 289 |
+
"target_year_strategy": "run_year",
|
| 290 |
+
"tob_donor_clones_per_source": 40,
|
| 291 |
+
"tob_donor_max_weight_scale_multiplier": 10.0,
|
| 292 |
+
"tob_donor_min_weight_scale_multiplier": 0.1,
|
| 293 |
+
"tob_donor_top_n_sources": 500,
|
| 294 |
+
"tob_donor_weight_scale": 0.2,
|
| 295 |
+
"tob_donor_weighting_mode": "equal_contribution",
|
| 296 |
+
"top_n_targets": 20
|
| 297 |
+
},
|
| 298 |
+
"target_source": {
|
| 299 |
+
"baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
|
| 300 |
+
"description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
|
| 301 |
+
"file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
|
| 302 |
+
"name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
|
| 303 |
+
"not_law": false,
|
| 304 |
+
"notes": [
|
| 305 |
+
"Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
|
| 306 |
+
],
|
| 307 |
+
"sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
|
| 308 |
+
"source_urls": [
|
| 309 |
+
"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
|
| 310 |
+
"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
|
| 311 |
+
],
|
| 312 |
+
"type": "trustees_current_law"
|
| 313 |
+
},
|
| 314 |
+
"tax_assumption": {
|
| 315 |
+
"description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
|
| 316 |
+
"economic_assumption": "trustees-2025-nawi-v1",
|
| 317 |
+
"end_year": 2100,
|
| 318 |
+
"income_uprating_assumption": "trustees-2025-soi-income-nawi-v1",
|
| 319 |
+
"name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
|
| 320 |
+
"not_default_current_law": true,
|
| 321 |
+
"parameter_groups": [
|
| 322 |
+
"all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
|
| 323 |
+
],
|
| 324 |
+
"projection_base_year": 2026,
|
| 325 |
+
"source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
|
| 326 |
+
"start_year": 2035,
|
| 327 |
+
"uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating"
|
| 328 |
+
},
|
| 329 |
+
"year": 2089
|
| 330 |
+
}
|
staging/crfb-longrun-20260517/long_term/2090.h5.metadata.json
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,330 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
{
|
| 2 |
+
"base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5",
|
| 3 |
+
"base_dataset_snapshot": {
|
| 4 |
+
"requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5",
|
| 5 |
+
"resolved_file_sha256": "96965b0d9931d36beb29486b25fffee8b630e3b62c9376e7265976e02f7ab3ca",
|
| 6 |
+
"resolved_mtime_ns": 1778905303378497095,
|
| 7 |
+
"resolved_path": "/Users/maxghenis/.cache/huggingface/hub/models--policyengine--policyengine-us-data/blobs/96965b0d9931d36beb29486b25fffee8b630e3b62c9376e7265976e02f7ab3ca",
|
| 8 |
+
"resolved_size": 106261154
|
| 9 |
+
},
|
| 10 |
+
"calibration_audit": {
|
| 11 |
+
"age_bucket_count": 18,
|
| 12 |
+
"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 13 |
+
"age_max_pct_error": 1.9003386654917228e-10,
|
| 14 |
+
"approximate_entropy_error": null,
|
| 15 |
+
"approximate_solution_error_pct": null,
|
| 16 |
+
"approximate_solution_used": false,
|
| 17 |
+
"approximation_method": null,
|
| 18 |
+
"baseline_weight_sum": 928920592.2641087,
|
| 19 |
+
"calibrated_weight_sum": 247047664.8989794,
|
| 20 |
+
"calibration_quality": "exact",
|
| 21 |
+
"clone_donor_family_count": 900,
|
| 22 |
+
"clone_donor_family_effective_sample_size": 57.72579408109635,
|
| 23 |
+
"clone_older_donor_count": 74,
|
| 24 |
+
"clone_older_donor_effective_sample_size": 26.984050119288533,
|
| 25 |
+
"clone_worker_donor_count": 98,
|
| 26 |
+
"clone_worker_donor_effective_sample_size": 43.77348349719832,
|
| 27 |
+
"constraint_provenance": {
|
| 28 |
+
"age_targets": {
|
| 29 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 30 |
+
"scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
|
| 31 |
+
"source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
|
| 32 |
+
},
|
| 33 |
+
"hi_tob": {
|
| 34 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 35 |
+
"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
|
| 36 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 37 |
+
},
|
| 38 |
+
"income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
|
| 39 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 40 |
+
"scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
|
| 41 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
|
| 42 |
+
},
|
| 43 |
+
"income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
|
| 44 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 45 |
+
"scoring_contract": "not directly consumed by reform scoring",
|
| 46 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_realized_rows"
|
| 47 |
+
},
|
| 48 |
+
"oasdi_tob": {
|
| 49 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 50 |
+
"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
|
| 51 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 52 |
+
},
|
| 53 |
+
"payroll_total": {
|
| 54 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 55 |
+
"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
|
| 56 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 57 |
+
},
|
| 58 |
+
"ss_total": {
|
| 59 |
+
"classification": "hard",
|
| 60 |
+
"scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
|
| 61 |
+
"source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
|
| 62 |
+
}
|
| 63 |
+
},
|
| 64 |
+
"constraints": {
|
| 65 |
+
"hi_tob": {
|
| 66 |
+
"achieved": 1212549000003.706,
|
| 67 |
+
"error": 3.7060546875,
|
| 68 |
+
"pct_error": 3.0564164314184415e-10,
|
| 69 |
+
"target": 1212549000000.0
|
| 70 |
+
},
|
| 71 |
+
"income_guard_ordinary_nonpayroll_income": {
|
| 72 |
+
"achieved": 17491462426846.049,
|
| 73 |
+
"error": 223.705078125,
|
| 74 |
+
"pct_error": 1.2789386768742479e-09,
|
| 75 |
+
"target": 17491462426622.344
|
| 76 |
+
},
|
| 77 |
+
"income_guard_preferential_investment_income": {
|
| 78 |
+
"achieved": 9945329798855.29,
|
| 79 |
+
"error": 477.263671875,
|
| 80 |
+
"pct_error": 4.798872250097091e-09,
|
| 81 |
+
"target": 9945329798378.025
|
| 82 |
+
},
|
| 83 |
+
"oasdi_tob": {
|
| 84 |
+
"achieved": 1440490100005.599,
|
| 85 |
+
"error": 5.59912109375,
|
| 86 |
+
"pct_error": 3.886955622777275e-10,
|
| 87 |
+
"target": 1440490100000.0
|
| 88 |
+
},
|
| 89 |
+
"payroll_total": {
|
| 90 |
+
"achieved": 127477000000048.3,
|
| 91 |
+
"error": 48.296875,
|
| 92 |
+
"pct_error": 3.788673643088557e-11,
|
| 93 |
+
"target": 127477000000000.0
|
| 94 |
+
},
|
| 95 |
+
"ss_total": {
|
| 96 |
+
"achieved": 23680276800031.895,
|
| 97 |
+
"error": 31.89453125,
|
| 98 |
+
"pct_error": 1.346881690589022e-10,
|
| 99 |
+
"target": 23680276800000.0
|
| 100 |
+
}
|
| 101 |
+
},
|
| 102 |
+
"donor_family_count": 41714,
|
| 103 |
+
"donor_family_effective_sample_size": 499.8819041525011,
|
| 104 |
+
"effective_sample_size": 501.1791129946992,
|
| 105 |
+
"entropy_error": null,
|
| 106 |
+
"fell_back_to_ipf": false,
|
| 107 |
+
"greg_attempted": false,
|
| 108 |
+
"greg_error": null,
|
| 109 |
+
"hi_tob_contributor_count": 41714,
|
| 110 |
+
"hi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 53.94797288260699,
|
| 111 |
+
"hi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 9375,
|
| 112 |
+
"largest_negative_weight": 0.0,
|
| 113 |
+
"lp_fallback_used": false,
|
| 114 |
+
"max_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 5.122227196397285,
|
| 115 |
+
"max_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 10.08738295040291,
|
| 116 |
+
"max_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 5.182949063840522,
|
| 117 |
+
"max_constraint_pct_error": 4.798872250097091e-09,
|
| 118 |
+
"max_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 1.451055240684652,
|
| 119 |
+
"max_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 6.3003813843919465,
|
| 120 |
+
"max_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 5.787689552208615,
|
| 121 |
+
"max_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 2.40387256641291,
|
| 122 |
+
"max_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 4.27050274104102,
|
| 123 |
+
"method_requested": "entropy",
|
| 124 |
+
"method_used": "entropy",
|
| 125 |
+
"negative_weight_count": 0,
|
| 126 |
+
"negative_weight_household_pct": 0.0,
|
| 127 |
+
"negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 128 |
+
"oasdi_tob_contributor_count": 41714,
|
| 129 |
+
"oasdi_tob_contributor_effective_sample_size": 61.9320012162981,
|
| 130 |
+
"oasdi_tob_positive_contributor_count": 10365,
|
| 131 |
+
"payroll_total_contributor_count": 41714,
|
| 132 |
+
"payroll_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 411.86517781029227,
|
| 133 |
+
"payroll_total_positive_contributor_count": 34496,
|
| 134 |
+
"positive_clone_donor_family_count": 900,
|
| 135 |
+
"positive_clone_older_donor_count": 74,
|
| 136 |
+
"positive_clone_worker_donor_count": 98,
|
| 137 |
+
"positive_donor_family_count": 41714,
|
| 138 |
+
"positive_weight_count": 61714,
|
| 139 |
+
"positive_weight_pct": 100.0,
|
| 140 |
+
"ss_total_contributor_count": 41714,
|
| 141 |
+
"ss_total_contributor_effective_sample_size": 117.16677749908632,
|
| 142 |
+
"ss_total_positive_contributor_count": 14560,
|
| 143 |
+
"support_blueprint": {
|
| 144 |
+
"base_weight_scale": 5.0,
|
| 145 |
+
"clone_household_count": 400,
|
| 146 |
+
"clone_total_prior_weight": 155816635.02175802,
|
| 147 |
+
"include_value_overrides": false,
|
| 148 |
+
"mode": "target_year_role_composite_blueprint",
|
| 149 |
+
"target_year": 2090,
|
| 150 |
+
"tob_donor_family_prior_regularization": {
|
| 151 |
+
"applied_max_multiplier": 1.2310855263157896,
|
| 152 |
+
"applied_median_multiplier": 1.0000001606419509,
|
| 153 |
+
"applied_min_multiplier": 0.1,
|
| 154 |
+
"contribution_target": 4.910160000000001e-06,
|
| 155 |
+
"family_count": 500,
|
| 156 |
+
"max_weight_scale_multiplier": 10.0,
|
| 157 |
+
"min_weight_scale_multiplier": 0.1,
|
| 158 |
+
"mode": "equal_contribution",
|
| 159 |
+
"score_mode": "hi_tob"
|
| 160 |
+
}
|
| 161 |
+
},
|
| 162 |
+
"top_100_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 74.95184037807097,
|
| 163 |
+
"top_100_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 100.00000000000003,
|
| 164 |
+
"top_100_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 100.0,
|
| 165 |
+
"top_100_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 32.992985005381044,
|
| 166 |
+
"top_100_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 83.42554389514338,
|
| 167 |
+
"top_100_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 79.93493787479656,
|
| 168 |
+
"top_100_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 34.93095329213695,
|
| 169 |
+
"top_100_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 65.2130734749769,
|
| 170 |
+
"top_100_weight_share_pct": 32.91678067650207,
|
| 171 |
+
"top_10_clone_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 33.347492242394935,
|
| 172 |
+
"top_10_clone_older_donor_weight_share_pct": 45.62360489711009,
|
| 173 |
+
"top_10_clone_worker_donor_weight_share_pct": 37.89279498356824,
|
| 174 |
+
"top_10_donor_family_weight_share_pct": 8.811155072563196,
|
| 175 |
+
"top_10_hi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 34.02046781613796,
|
| 176 |
+
"top_10_oasdi_tob_contribution_share_pct": 32.62403174308736,
|
| 177 |
+
"top_10_payroll_total_contribution_share_pct": 9.34114248027614,
|
| 178 |
+
"top_10_ss_total_contribution_share_pct": 21.26760166571445,
|
| 179 |
+
"top_10_weight_share_pct": 8.811155072563198,
|
| 180 |
+
"validation_issues": [],
|
| 181 |
+
"validation_passed": true
|
| 182 |
+
},
|
| 183 |
+
"contract_version": 1,
|
| 184 |
+
"policyengine_us": {
|
| 185 |
+
"package_dir": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policyengine-us-data-crfb-pin/.venv/lib/python3.14/site-packages/policyengine_us",
|
| 186 |
+
"package_file": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policyengine-us-data-crfb-pin/.venv/lib/python3.14/site-packages/policyengine_us/__init__.py",
|
| 187 |
+
"package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
|
| 188 |
+
"package_mtime_ns": 1778950525391246940,
|
| 189 |
+
"package_size": 498,
|
| 190 |
+
"package_tree_file_count": 13229,
|
| 191 |
+
"package_tree_sha256": "22d87cadef959eba850e557b5552733353999e8b63570ca0cc448a98d4af78e9",
|
| 192 |
+
"package_tree_size": 20314316,
|
| 193 |
+
"version": "1.691.12"
|
| 194 |
+
},
|
| 195 |
+
"profile": {
|
| 196 |
+
"allow_greg_fallback": false,
|
| 197 |
+
"approximate_windows": [
|
| 198 |
+
{
|
| 199 |
+
"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 200 |
+
"end_year": 2078,
|
| 201 |
+
"max_age_error_pct": 0.5,
|
| 202 |
+
"max_constraint_error_pct": 0.5,
|
| 203 |
+
"max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 204 |
+
"max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
|
| 205 |
+
"max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
|
| 206 |
+
"min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
|
| 207 |
+
"min_positive_household_count": 1000,
|
| 208 |
+
"start_year": 2075
|
| 209 |
+
},
|
| 210 |
+
{
|
| 211 |
+
"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 212 |
+
"end_year": 2085,
|
| 213 |
+
"max_age_error_pct": 10.0,
|
| 214 |
+
"max_constraint_error_pct": 10.0,
|
| 215 |
+
"max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 216 |
+
"max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
|
| 217 |
+
"max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
|
| 218 |
+
"min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
|
| 219 |
+
"min_positive_household_count": 1000,
|
| 220 |
+
"start_year": 2079
|
| 221 |
+
},
|
| 222 |
+
{
|
| 223 |
+
"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 224 |
+
"end_year": 2095,
|
| 225 |
+
"max_age_error_pct": 20.0,
|
| 226 |
+
"max_constraint_error_pct": 20.0,
|
| 227 |
+
"max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 228 |
+
"max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
|
| 229 |
+
"max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
|
| 230 |
+
"min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
|
| 231 |
+
"min_positive_household_count": 1000,
|
| 232 |
+
"start_year": 2086
|
| 233 |
+
},
|
| 234 |
+
{
|
| 235 |
+
"age_bucket_size": 5,
|
| 236 |
+
"end_year": null,
|
| 237 |
+
"max_age_error_pct": 35.0,
|
| 238 |
+
"max_constraint_error_pct": 35.0,
|
| 239 |
+
"max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 240 |
+
"max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
|
| 241 |
+
"max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
|
| 242 |
+
"min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
|
| 243 |
+
"min_positive_household_count": 1000,
|
| 244 |
+
"start_year": 2096
|
| 245 |
+
}
|
| 246 |
+
],
|
| 247 |
+
"benchmark_tob": false,
|
| 248 |
+
"calibration_method": "entropy",
|
| 249 |
+
"description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
|
| 250 |
+
"max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
|
| 251 |
+
"max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
|
| 252 |
+
"max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
|
| 253 |
+
"max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
|
| 254 |
+
"max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
|
| 255 |
+
"min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
|
| 256 |
+
"min_positive_household_count": 1000,
|
| 257 |
+
"name": "ss-payroll-tob",
|
| 258 |
+
"use_greg": false,
|
| 259 |
+
"use_h6_reform": false,
|
| 260 |
+
"use_payroll": true,
|
| 261 |
+
"use_ss": true,
|
| 262 |
+
"use_tob": true
|
| 263 |
+
},
|
| 264 |
+
"support_augmentation": {
|
| 265 |
+
"activation_start_year": 2075,
|
| 266 |
+
"blueprint_base_weight_scale": 5.0,
|
| 267 |
+
"clone_weight_scale": 0.1,
|
| 268 |
+
"donors_per_target": 5,
|
| 269 |
+
"family": "targeted_donor",
|
| 270 |
+
"max_distance_for_clone": 3.0,
|
| 271 |
+
"name": "donor-backed-composite-v1",
|
| 272 |
+
"non_target_income_sanitizer_mode": "none",
|
| 273 |
+
"report_file": "support_augmentation_report_2090.json",
|
| 274 |
+
"report_summary": {
|
| 275 |
+
"augmented_household_count": 61714,
|
| 276 |
+
"augmented_person_count": 152749,
|
| 277 |
+
"base_household_count": 41314,
|
| 278 |
+
"base_person_count": 101384,
|
| 279 |
+
"clone_household_count": 20400,
|
| 280 |
+
"role_composite_clone_count": 400,
|
| 281 |
+
"skipped_target_count": 0,
|
| 282 |
+
"successful_target_count": 400,
|
| 283 |
+
"tob_donor_clone_count": 20000
|
| 284 |
+
},
|
| 285 |
+
"sanitize_clone_non_target_income": false,
|
| 286 |
+
"sanitize_worker_non_target_income": false,
|
| 287 |
+
"support_solve_max_constraint_error_pct": 5.0,
|
| 288 |
+
"target_year": 2090,
|
| 289 |
+
"target_year_strategy": "run_year",
|
| 290 |
+
"tob_donor_clones_per_source": 40,
|
| 291 |
+
"tob_donor_max_weight_scale_multiplier": 10.0,
|
| 292 |
+
"tob_donor_min_weight_scale_multiplier": 0.1,
|
| 293 |
+
"tob_donor_top_n_sources": 500,
|
| 294 |
+
"tob_donor_weight_scale": 0.2,
|
| 295 |
+
"tob_donor_weighting_mode": "equal_contribution",
|
| 296 |
+
"top_n_targets": 20
|
| 297 |
+
},
|
| 298 |
+
"target_source": {
|
| 299 |
+
"baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
|
| 300 |
+
"description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
|
| 301 |
+
"file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
|
| 302 |
+
"name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
|
| 303 |
+
"not_law": false,
|
| 304 |
+
"notes": [
|
| 305 |
+
"Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
|
| 306 |
+
],
|
| 307 |
+
"sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
|
| 308 |
+
"source_urls": [
|
| 309 |
+
"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
|
| 310 |
+
"https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
|
| 311 |
+
],
|
| 312 |
+
"type": "trustees_current_law"
|
| 313 |
+
},
|
| 314 |
+
"tax_assumption": {
|
| 315 |
+
"description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
|
| 316 |
+
"economic_assumption": "trustees-2025-nawi-v1",
|
| 317 |
+
"end_year": 2100,
|
| 318 |
+
"income_uprating_assumption": "trustees-2025-soi-income-nawi-v1",
|
| 319 |
+
"name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
|
| 320 |
+
"not_default_current_law": true,
|
| 321 |
+
"parameter_groups": [
|
| 322 |
+
"all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
|
| 323 |
+
],
|
| 324 |
+
"projection_base_year": 2026,
|
| 325 |
+
"source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
|
| 326 |
+
"start_year": 2035,
|
| 327 |
+
"uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating"
|
| 328 |
+
},
|
| 329 |
+
"year": 2090
|
| 330 |
+
}
|