Daily Papers

While previous research in multivariate time series forecasting has focused on developing complex holistic models, this work advocates for a shift toward a granular, component-level understanding of their impacts. We propose TSCOMP, the first large-scale benchmark that systematically deconstructs deep forecasting methods into their core, fine-grained components--spanning series preprocessing, encoding strategies, network architectures including specific and large time-series models, and optimization methods. Using constrained orthogonal experimental design and extensive evaluations, we conduct multi-view analyses that reveal component effectiveness across different backbones, data characteristics, and their interactions. Beyond providing insights, this benchmark establishes a fine-grained performance corpus comprising over 20,000 model-dataset evaluations, which supports the learning of automated component selection, enabling zero-shot model construction on new datasets. Our experiments demonstrate that the corpus-driven approach, despite its simplicity, consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods, validating the soundness of our evaluation design and confirming that systematic component selection surpasses manually designed complex architectures. All code and the performance corpus are publicly available at https://github.com/SUFE-AILAB/TSCOMP.

We propose a simple but strong baseline for time series classification from scratch with deep neural networks. Our proposed baseline models are pure end-to-end without any heavy preprocessing on the raw data or feature crafting. The proposed Fully Convolutional Network (FCN) achieves premium performance to other state-of-the-art approaches and our exploration of the very deep neural networks with the ResNet structure is also competitive. The global average pooling in our convolutional model enables the exploitation of the Class Activation Map (CAM) to find out the contributing region in the raw data for the specific labels. Our models provides a simple choice for the real world application and a good starting point for the future research. An overall analysis is provided to discuss the generalization capability of our models, learned features, network structures and the classification semantics.

In this paper, we present Jellyfish, an open-source LLM as a universal task solver for DP. Built on the Llama 2 13B model, Jellyfish is instruction-tuned with the datasets of several typical DP tasks including error detection, data imputation, schema matching, and entity matching, and delivers generalizability to other tasks. Remarkably, Jellyfish can operate on a local, single, and low-priced GPU with its 13 billion parameters, ensuring data security and enabling further tuning. Its proficiency in understanding natural language allows users to manually craft instructions for DP tasks. Unlike many existing methods that heavily rely on prior knowledge, Jellyfish acquires domain knowledge during its tuning process and integrates optional knowledge injection during inference. A distinctive feature of Jellyfish is its interpreter, which elucidates its output decisions. To construct Jellyfish, we develop a series of pre-tuning and DP-tuning techniques. Jellyfish is equipped with an instance serializer, which automatically translates raw data into model prompts, and a knowledge injector, which optionally introduces task- and dataset-specific knowledge to enhance DP performance. Our evaluation of Jellyfish, using a range of real datasets, shows its competitiveness compared to state-of-the-art methods and its strong generalizability to unseen tasks. Jellyfish's performance rivals that of GPT series models, and its interpreter offers enhanced reasoning capabilities compared to GPT-3.5. Furthermore, our evaluation highlights the effectiveness of the techniques employed in constructing Jellyfish. Our model is available at Hugging Face: https://huggingface.co/NECOUDBFM/Jellyfish .

Over the past decade, multivariate time series classification has received great attention. We propose transforming the existing univariate time series classification models, the Long Short Term Memory Fully Convolutional Network (LSTM-FCN) and Attention LSTM-FCN (ALSTM-FCN), into a multivariate time series classification model by augmenting the fully convolutional block with a squeeze-and-excitation block to further improve accuracy. Our proposed models outperform most state-of-the-art models while requiring minimum preprocessing. The proposed models work efficiently on various complex multivariate time series classification tasks such as activity recognition or action recognition. Furthermore, the proposed models are highly efficient at test time and small enough to deploy on memory constrained systems.

Recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated new possibilities for accurate and efficient time series analysis, but prior work often required heavy fine-tuning and/or ignored inter-series correlations. In this work, we explore simple and flexible prompt-based strategies that enable LLMs to perform time series forecasting without extensive retraining or the use of a complex external architecture. Through the exploration of specialized prompting methods that leverage time series decomposition, patch-based tokenization, and similarity-based neighbor augmentation, we find that it is possible to enhance LLM forecasting quality while maintaining simplicity and requiring minimal preprocessing of data. To this end, we propose our own method, PatchInstruct, which enables LLMs to make precise and effective predictions.

Large-kernel convolutional neural networks (ConvNets) have recently received extensive research attention, but there are two unresolved and critical issues that demand further investigation. 1) The architectures of existing large-kernel ConvNets largely follow the design principles of conventional ConvNets or transformers, while the architectural design for large-kernel ConvNets remains under-addressed. 2) As transformers have dominated multiple modalities, it remains to be investigated whether ConvNets also have a strong universal perception ability in domains beyond vision. In this paper, we contribute from two aspects. 1) We propose four architectural guidelines for designing large-kernel ConvNets, the core of which is to exploit the essential characteristics of large kernels that distinguish them from small kernels - they can see wide without going deep. Following such guidelines, our proposed large-kernel ConvNet shows leading performance in image recognition. For example, our models achieve an ImageNet accuracy of 88.0%, ADE20K mIoU of 55.6%, and COCO box AP of 56.4%, demonstrating better performance and higher speed than a number of recently proposed powerful competitors. 2) We discover that large kernels are the key to unlocking the exceptional performance of ConvNets in domains where they were originally not proficient. With certain modality-related preprocessing approaches, the proposed model achieves state-of-the-art performance on time-series forecasting and audio recognition tasks even without modality-specific customization to the architecture. Code and all the models at https://github.com/AILab-CVC/UniRepLKNet.

Deep-learning survival models for electronic health record (EHR) data are hard to compare across papers because the upstream preprocessing step, which includes cohort definition, time discretisation, missingness handling, and censoring rules, is typically undocumented and inconsistent. A reported difference in concordance between two mortality models can therefore reflect any of these choices rather than a modelling contribution. We present SurvBench, an open-source preprocessing pipeline that converts raw PhysioNet exports into model-ready tensors for survival analysis. SurvBench covers four critical-care databases (MIMIC-IV, eICU, MC-MED, HiRID) and four input modalities: time-series vitals and laboratory values, static demographics, International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes, and radiology report embeddings. Every preprocessing decision is controlled through YAML configuration. Imputation, scaling, and feature filtering are fit on the training fold only. Missingness is recorded as a binary mask alongside each feature tensor. The pipeline handles single-risk endpoints (in-hospital and in-ICU mortality) and competing-risks endpoints (a three-way emergency-department admission pathway, with home discharge treated as administrative censoring). We also provide support for harmonised cross-dataset external validation between eICU and MIMIC-IV. SurvBench is publicly available at https://github.com/munibmesinovic/SurvBench, providing a robust platform that future deep-learning EHR survival work, especially nascent multi-modal approaches, can be measured against under matched preprocessing.

Time series forecasting is central to decision-making in domains as diverse as energy, finance, climate, and public health. In practice, forecasters face thousands of short, noisy series that vary in frequency, quality, and horizon, where the dominant cost lies not in model fitting, but in the labor-intensive preprocessing, validation, and ensembling required to obtain reliable predictions. Prevailing statistical and deep learning models are tailored to specific datasets or domains and generalize poorly. A general, domain-agnostic framework that minimizes human intervention is urgently in demand. In this paper, we introduce TimeSeriesScientist (TSci), the first LLM-driven agentic framework for general time series forecasting. The framework comprises four specialized agents: Curator performs LLM-guided diagnostics augmented by external tools that reason over data statistics to choose targeted preprocessing; Planner narrows the hypothesis space of model choice by leveraging multi-modal diagnostics and self-planning over the input; Forecaster performs model fitting and validation and, based on the results, adaptively selects the best model configuration as well as ensemble strategy to make final predictions; and Reporter synthesizes the whole process into a comprehensive, transparent report. With transparent natural-language rationales and comprehensive reports, TSci transforms the forecasting workflow into a white-box system that is both interpretable and extensible across tasks. Empirical results on eight established benchmarks demonstrate that TSci consistently outperforms both statistical and LLM-based baselines, reducing forecast error by an average of 10.4% and 38.2%, respectively. Moreover, TSci produces a clear and rigorous report that makes the forecasting workflow more transparent and interpretable.

AI-generated text detection plays an increasingly important role in various fields. In this study, we developed an efficient AI-generated text detection model based on the BERT algorithm, which provides new ideas and methods for solving related problems. In the data preprocessing stage, a series of steps were taken to process the text, including operations such as converting to lowercase, word splitting, removing stop words, stemming extraction, removing digits, and eliminating redundant spaces, to ensure data quality and accuracy. By dividing the dataset into a training set and a test set in the ratio of 60% and 40%, and observing the changes in the accuracy and loss values during the training process, we found that the model performed well during the training process. The accuracy increases steadily from the initial 94.78% to 99.72%, while the loss value decreases from 0.261 to 0.021 and converges gradually, which indicates that the BERT model is able to detect AI-generated text with high accuracy and the prediction results are gradually approaching the real classification results. Further analysis of the results of the training and test sets reveals that in terms of loss value, the average loss of the training set is 0.0565, while the average loss of the test set is 0.0917, showing a slightly higher loss value. As for the accuracy, the average accuracy of the training set reaches 98.1%, while the average accuracy of the test set is 97.71%, which is not much different from each other, indicating that the model has good generalisation ability. In conclusion, the AI-generated text detection model based on the BERT algorithm proposed in this study shows high accuracy and stability in experiments, providing an effective solution for related fields.

This paper proposes a method for the automatic creation of variables (in the case of regression) that complement the information contained in the initial input vector. The method works as a pre-processing step in which the continuous values of the variable to be regressed are discretized into a set of intervals which are then used to define value thresholds. Then classifiers are trained to predict whether the value to be regressed is less than or equal to each of these thresholds. The different outputs of the classifiers are then concatenated in the form of an additional vector of variables that enriches the initial vector of the regression problem. The implemented system can thus be considered as a generic pre-processing tool. We tested the proposed enrichment method with 5 types of regressors and evaluated it in 33 regression datasets. Our experimental results confirm the interest of the approach.

Cross-validation is the de facto standard for predictive model evaluation and selection. In proper use, it provides an unbiased estimate of a model's predictive performance. However, data sets often undergo various forms of data-dependent preprocessing, such as mean-centering, rescaling, dimensionality reduction, and outlier removal. It is often believed that such preprocessing stages, if done in an unsupervised manner (that does not incorporate the class labels or response values) are generally safe to do prior to cross-validation. In this paper, we study three commonly-practiced preprocessing procedures prior to a regression analysis: (i) variance-based feature selection; (ii) grouping of rare categorical features; and (iii) feature rescaling. We demonstrate that unsupervised preprocessing can, in fact, introduce a substantial bias into cross-validation estimates and potentially hurt model selection. This bias may be either positive or negative and its exact magnitude depends on all the parameters of the problem in an intricate manner. Further research is needed to understand the real-world impact of this bias across different application domains, particularly when dealing with small sample sizes and high-dimensional data.

Time series has been left behind in the era of pre-training and transfer learning. While research in the fields of natural language processing and computer vision are enjoying progressively larger datasets to train massive models, the most popular time series datasets consist of only tens of thousands of time steps, limiting our ability to study the effectiveness of pre-training and scaling. Recent studies have also cast doubt on the need for expressive models and scale. To alleviate these issues, we introduce three large-scale time series forecasting datasets from the cloud operations (CloudOps) domain, the largest having billions of observations, enabling further study into pre-training and scaling of time series models. We build the empirical groundwork for studying pre-training and scaling of time series models and pave the way for future research by identifying a promising candidate architecture. We show that it is a strong zero-shot baseline and benefits from further scaling, both in model and dataset size. Accompanying these datasets and results is a suite of comprehensive benchmark results comparing classical and deep learning baselines to our pre-trained method - achieving a 27% reduction in error on the largest dataset. Code and datasets will be released.

Foundation models for time series analysis (TSA) have attracted significant attention. However, challenges such as training data scarcity and imbalance continue to hinder their development. Inspired by complex dynamic system theories, we design a series-symbol data generation mechanism, enabling the unrestricted creation of high-quality time series data paired with corresponding symbolic expressions. To leverage series-symbol data pairs with strong correlations, we develop SymTime, a pre-trained foundation model for enhancing time series representation using symbolic information. SymTime demonstrates competitive performance across five major TSA tasks when fine-tunes with downstream tasks, rivaling foundation models pre-trained on real-world datasets. This approach underscores the potential of series-symbol data generation and pretraining mechanisms in overcoming data scarcity and enhancing task performance. The code is available at https://github.com/wwhenxuan/SymTime.

Feature preprocessing continues to play a critical role when applying machine learning and statistical methods to tabular data. In this paper, we propose the use of the kernel density integral transformation as a feature preprocessing step. Our approach subsumes the two leading feature preprocessing methods as limiting cases: linear min-max scaling and quantile transformation. We demonstrate that, without hyperparameter tuning, the kernel density integral transformation can be used as a simple drop-in replacement for either method, offering protection from the weaknesses of each. Alternatively, with tuning of a single continuous hyperparameter, we frequently outperform both of these methods. Finally, we show that the kernel density transformation can be profitably applied to statistical data analysis, particularly in correlation analysis and univariate clustering.

Time series forecasting with limited data is a challenging yet critical task. While transformers have achieved outstanding performances in time series forecasting, they often require many training samples due to the large number of trainable parameters. In this paper, we propose a training technique for transformers that prepares the training windows through random sampling. As input time steps need not be consecutive, the number of distinct samples increases from linearly to combinatorially many. By breaking the temporal order, this technique also helps transformers to capture dependencies among time steps in finer granularity. We achieve competitive results compared to the state-of-the-art on real-world datasets.

We introduce the Ministral 3 series, a family of parameter-efficient dense language models designed for compute and memory constrained applications, available in three model sizes: 3B, 8B, and 14B parameters. For each model size, we release three variants: a pretrained base model for general-purpose use, an instruction finetuned, and a reasoning model for complex problem-solving. In addition, we present our recipe to derive the Ministral 3 models through Cascade Distillation, an iterative pruning and continued training with distillation technique. Each model comes with image understanding capabilities, all under the Apache 2.0 license.

Recent efforts have been dedicated to enhancing time series forecasting accuracy by introducing advanced network architectures and self-supervised pretraining strategies. Nevertheless, existing approaches still exhibit two critical drawbacks. Firstly, these methods often rely on a single dataset for training, limiting the model's generalizability due to the restricted scale of the training data. Secondly, the one-step generation schema is widely followed, which necessitates a customized forecasting head and overlooks the temporal dependencies in the output series, and also leads to increased training costs under different horizon length settings. To address these issues, we propose a novel generative pretrained hierarchical transformer architecture for forecasting, named GPHT. There are two aspects of key designs in GPHT. On the one hand, we advocate for constructing a mixed dataset for pretraining our model, comprising various datasets from diverse data scenarios. This approach significantly expands the scale of training data, allowing our model to uncover commonalities in time series data and facilitating improved transfer to specific datasets. On the other hand, GPHT employs an auto-regressive forecasting approach under the channel-independent assumption, effectively modeling temporal dependencies in the output series. Importantly, no customized forecasting head is required, enabling a single model to forecast at arbitrary horizon settings. We conduct sufficient experiments on eight datasets with mainstream self-supervised pretraining models and supervised models. The results demonstrated that GPHT surpasses the baseline models across various fine-tuning and zero/few-shot learning settings in the traditional long-term forecasting task, providing support for verifying the feasibility of pretrained time series large models.

In this paper, we present a simple optimization-based preprocessing technique called Weight Magnitude Reduction (MagR) to improve the performance of post-training quantization. For each linear layer, we adjust the pre-trained floating-point weights by solving an ell_infty-regularized optimization problem. This process greatly diminishes the maximum magnitude of the weights and smooths out outliers, while preserving the layer's output. The preprocessed weights are centered more towards zero, which facilitates the subsequent quantization process. To implement MagR, we address the ell_infty-regularization by employing an efficient proximal gradient descent algorithm. Unlike existing preprocessing methods that involve linear transformations and subsequent post-processing steps, which can introduce significant overhead at inference time, MagR functions as a non-linear transformation, eliminating the need for any additional post-processing. This ensures that MagR introduces no overhead whatsoever during inference. Our experiments demonstrate that MagR achieves state-of-the-art performance on the Llama family of models. For example, we achieve a Wikitext2 perplexity of 5.95 on the LLaMA2-70B model for per-channel INT2 weight quantization without incurring any inference overhead.

Time series play a fundamental role in many domains, capturing a plethora of information about the underlying data-generating processes. When a process generates multiple synchronized signals we are faced with multidimensional time series. In this context a fundamental problem is that of motif mining, where we seek patterns repeating twice with minor variations, spanning some of the dimensions. State of the art exact solutions for this problem run in time quadratic in the length of the input time series. We provide a scalable method to find the top-k motifs in multidimensional time series with probabilistic guarantees on the quality of the results. Our algorithm runs in time subquadratic in the length of the input, and returns the exact solution with probability at least 1-δ, where δ is a user-defined parameter. The algorithm is designed to be adaptive to the input distribution, self-tuning its parameters while respecting user-defined limits on the memory to use. Our theoretical analysis is complemented by an extensive experimental evaluation, showing that our algorithm is orders of magnitude faster than the state of the art.

The performance of time series forecasting has recently been greatly improved by the introduction of transformers. In this paper, we propose a general multi-scale framework that can be applied to the state-of-the-art transformer-based time series forecasting models (FEDformer, Autoformer, etc.). By iteratively refining a forecasted time series at multiple scales with shared weights, introducing architecture adaptations, and a specially-designed normalization scheme, we are able to achieve significant performance improvements, from 5.5% to 38.5% across datasets and transformer architectures, with minimal additional computational overhead. Via detailed ablation studies, we demonstrate the effectiveness of each of our contributions across the architecture and methodology. Furthermore, our experiments on various public datasets demonstrate that the proposed improvements outperform their corresponding baseline counterparts. Our code is publicly available in https://github.com/BorealisAI/scaleformer.

Time series forecasting holds significant importance in many real-world dynamic systems and has been extensively studied. Unlike natural language process (NLP) and computer vision (CV), where a single large model can tackle multiple tasks, models for time series forecasting are often specialized, necessitating distinct designs for different tasks and applications. While pre-trained foundation models have made impressive strides in NLP and CV, their development in time series domains has been constrained by data sparsity. Recent studies have revealed that large language models (LLMs) possess robust pattern recognition and reasoning abilities over complex sequences of tokens. However, the challenge remains in effectively aligning the modalities of time series data and natural language to leverage these capabilities. In this work, we present Time-LLM, a reprogramming framework to repurpose LLMs for general time series forecasting with the backbone language models kept intact. We begin by reprogramming the input time series with text prototypes before feeding it into the frozen LLM to align the two modalities. To augment the LLM's ability to reason with time series data, we propose Prompt-as-Prefix (PaP), which enriches the input context and directs the transformation of reprogrammed input patches. The transformed time series patches from the LLM are finally projected to obtain the forecasts. Our comprehensive evaluations demonstrate that Time-LLM is a powerful time series learner that outperforms state-of-the-art, specialized forecasting models. Moreover, Time-LLM excels in both few-shot and zero-shot learning scenarios.

Periodic signals play an important role in daily lives. Although conventional sequential models have shown remarkable success in various fields, they still come short in modeling periodicity; they either collapse, diverge or ignore details. In this paper, we introduce a novel framework inspired by Fourier series to generate periodic signals. We first decompose the given signals into multiple sines and cosines and then conditionally generate periodic signals with the output components. We have shown our model efficacy on three tasks: reconstruction, imputation and conditional generation. Our model outperforms baselines in all tasks and shows more stable and refined results.

Electroencephalography (EEG) is a cornerstone of brain-computer interfaces and clinical neuroscience, yet deep learning models are typically trained and evaluated under a single, unreported preprocessing pipeline. We formalize preprocessing choices as a counterfactual intervention space and show that EEG predictions are surprisingly unstable under this space: across six datasets spanning four paradigms, up to 42% of trial-level predictions flip when only the preprocessing changes, a variability that standard uncertainty methods do not explicitly quantify because they condition on a fixed preprocessing pipeline. We provide three tools to make this instability measurable, decomposable, and reducible. First, a Walsh-Hadamard decomposition of the 2^7 pipeline space reveals that sensitivity is near-additive in practice under the binary intervention design, enabling efficient step-by-step optimization. Second, we introduce Preprocessing Uncertainty (PU), a per-trial diagnostic that captures a dimension of instability complementary to model-based confidence. Third, we study Normalized Adaptive PGI (NA-PGI), a graph-structured regularizer that exploits the compositional structure of preprocessing interventions as one mitigation strategy with clear scope conditions.

Nowadays, time series forecasting is predominantly approached through the end-to-end training of deep learning architectures using error-based objectives. While this is effective at minimizing average loss, it encourages the encoder to discard informative yet extreme patterns. This results in smooth predictions and temporal representations that poorly capture salient dynamics. To address this issue, we propose ReGuider, a plug-in method that can be seamlessly integrated into any forecasting architecture. ReGuider leverages pretrained time series foundation models as semantic teachers. During training, the input sequence is processed together by the target forecasting model and the pretrained model. Rather than using the pretrained model's outputs directly, we extract its intermediate embeddings, which are rich in temporal and semantic information, and align them with the target model's encoder embeddings through representation-level supervision. This alignment process enables the encoder to learn more expressive temporal representations, thereby improving the accuracy of downstream forecasting. Extensive experimentation across diverse datasets and architectures demonstrates that our ReGuider consistently improves forecasting performance, confirming its effectiveness and versatility.

In this paper we present our submission for the EACL 2021 SRW; a methodology that aims at bridging the gap between high and low-resource languages in the context of Open Information Extraction, showcasing it on the Greek language. The goals of this paper are twofold: First, we build Neural Machine Translation (NMT) models for English-to-Greek and Greek-to-English based on the Transformer architecture. Second, we leverage these NMT models to produce English translations of Greek text as input for our NLP pipeline, to which we apply a series of pre-processing and triple extraction tasks. Finally, we back-translate the extracted triples to Greek. We conduct an evaluation of both our NMT and OIE methods on benchmark datasets and demonstrate that our approach outperforms the current state-of-the-art for the Greek natural language.

Covariates provide valuable information on external factors that influence time series and are critical in many real-world time series forecasting tasks. For example, in retail, covariates may indicate promotions or peak dates such as holiday seasons that heavily influence demand forecasts. Recent advances in pretraining large language model architectures for time series forecasting have led to highly accurate forecasters. However, the majority of these models do not readily use covariates as they are often specific to a certain task or domain. This paper introduces a new method to incorporate covariates into pretrained time series forecasting models. Our proposed approach incorporates covariate information into pretrained forecasting models through modular blocks that inject past and future covariate information, without necessarily modifying the pretrained model in consideration. In order to evaluate our approach, we introduce a benchmark composed of 32 different synthetic datasets with varying dynamics to evaluate the effectivity of forecasting models with covariates. Extensive evaluations on both synthetic and real datasets show that our approach effectively incorporates covariate information into pretrained models, outperforming existing baselines.

Deep learning for time series forecasting has seen significant advancements over the past decades. However, despite the success of large-scale pre-training in language and vision domains, pre-trained time series models remain limited in scale and operate at a high cost, hindering the development of larger capable forecasting models in real-world applications. In response, we introduce Time-MoE, a scalable and unified architecture designed to pre-train larger, more capable forecasting foundation models while reducing inference costs. By leveraging a sparse mixture-of-experts (MoE) design, Time-MoE enhances computational efficiency by activating only a subset of networks for each prediction, reducing computational load while maintaining high model capacity. This allows Time-MoE to scale effectively without a corresponding increase in inference costs. Time-MoE comprises a family of decoder-only transformer models that operate in an auto-regressive manner and support flexible forecasting horizons with varying input context lengths. We pre-trained these models on our newly introduced large-scale data Time-300B, which spans over 9 domains and encompassing over 300 billion time points. For the first time, we scaled a time series foundation model up to 2.4 billion parameters, achieving significantly improved forecasting precision. Our results validate the applicability of scaling laws for training tokens and model size in the context of time series forecasting. Compared to dense models with the same number of activated parameters or equivalent computation budgets, our models consistently outperform them by large margin. These advancements position Time-MoE as a state-of-the-art solution for tackling real-world time series forecasting challenges with superior capability, efficiency, and flexibility.

Visualizing multiple time series presents fundamental tradeoffs between scalability and visual clarity. Time series capture the behavior of many large-scale real-world processes, from stock market trends to urban activities. Users often gain insights by visualizing them as line charts, juxtaposing or superposing multiple time series to compare them and identify trends and patterns. However, existing representations struggle with scalability: when covering long time spans, leading to visual clutter from too many small multiples or overlapping lines. We propose TiVy, a new algorithm that summarizes time series using sequential patterns. It transforms the series into a set of symbolic sequences based on subsequence visual similarity using Dynamic Time Warping (DTW), then constructs a disjoint grouping of similar subsequences based on the frequent sequential patterns. The grouping result, a visual summary of time series, provides uncluttered superposition with fewer small multiples. Unlike common clustering techniques, TiVy extracts similar subsequences (of varying lengths) aligned in time. We also present an interactive time series visualization that renders large-scale time series in real-time. Our experimental evaluation shows that our algorithm (1) extracts clear and accurate patterns when visualizing time series data, (2) achieves a significant speed-up (1000X) compared to a straightforward DTW clustering. We also demonstrate the efficiency of our approach to explore hidden structures in massive time series data in two usage scenarios.

In this paper, we present a new approach to time series forecasting. Time series data are prevalent in many scientific and engineering disciplines. Time series forecasting is a crucial task in modeling time series data, and is an important area of machine learning. In this work we developed a novel method that employs Transformer-based machine learning models to forecast time series data. This approach works by leveraging self-attention mechanisms to learn complex patterns and dynamics from time series data. Moreover, it is a generic framework and can be applied to univariate and multivariate time series data, as well as time series embeddings. Using influenza-like illness (ILI) forecasting as a case study, we show that the forecasting results produced by our approach are favorably comparable to the state-of-the-art.

Stock selection, which aims to predict stock prices and identify the most profitable ones, is a crucial task in finance. While existing methods primarily focus on developing model structures and building graphs for improved selection, pre-training strategies remain underexplored in this domain. Current stock series pre-training follows methods from other areas without adapting to the unique characteristics of financial data, particularly overlooking stock-specific contextual information and the non-stationary nature of stock prices. Consequently, the latent statistical features inherent in stock data are underutilized. In this paper, we propose three novel pre-training tasks tailored to stock data characteristics: stock code classification, stock sector classification, and moving average prediction. We develop the Stock Specialized Pre-trained Transformer (SSPT) based on a two-layer transformer architecture. Extensive experimental results validate the effectiveness of our pre-training methods and provide detailed guidance on their application. Evaluations on five stock datasets, including four markets and two time periods, demonstrate that SSPT consistently outperforms the market and existing methods in terms of both cumulative investment return ratio and Sharpe ratio. Additionally, our experiments on simulated data investigate the underlying mechanisms of our methods, providing insights into understanding price series. Our code is publicly available at: https://github.com/astudentuser/Pre-training-Time-Series-Models-with-Stock-Data-Customization.

In the heart of "rhythm games" - games where players must perform actions in sync with a piece of music - are "charts", the directives to be given to players. We newly formulate chart generation as a sequence generation task and train a Transformer using a large dataset. We also introduce tempo-informed preprocessing and training procedures, some of which are suggested to be integral for a successful training. Our model is found to outperform the baselines on a large dataset, and is also found to benefit from pretraining and finetuning.

During inference for transformer-based large language models (LLM), prefilling is the computation of the key-value (KV) cache for input tokens in the prompt prior to autoregressive generation. For longer input prompt lengths, prefilling will incur a significant overhead on decoding time. In this work, we highlight the following pitfall of prefilling: for batches containing high-varying prompt lengths, significant computation is wasted by the standard practice of padding sequences to the maximum length. As LLMs increasingly support longer context lengths, potentially up to 10 million tokens, variations in prompt lengths within a batch become more pronounced. To address this, we propose Prepacking, a simple yet effective method to optimize prefilling computation. To avoid redundant computation on pad tokens, prepacking combines prompts of varying lengths into a sequence and packs multiple sequences into a compact batch using a bin-packing algorithm. It then modifies the attention mask and positional encoding to compute multiple prefilled KV-caches for multiple prompts within a single sequence. On standard curated dataset containing prompts with varying lengths, we obtain a significant speed and memory efficiency improvements as compared to the default padding-based prefilling computation within Huggingface across a range of base model configurations and inference serving scenarios.

Pretraining large language models (LLMs) on high-quality, structured data such as mathematics and code substantially enhances reasoning capabilities. However, existing math-focused datasets built from Common Crawl suffer from degraded quality due to brittle extraction heuristics, lossy HTML-to-text conversion, and the failure to reliably preserve mathematical structure. In this work, we introduce Nemotron-CC-Math, a large-scale, high-quality mathematical corpus constructed from Common Crawl using a novel, domain-agnostic pipeline specifically designed for robust scientific text extraction. Unlike previous efforts, our pipeline recovers math across various formats (e.g., MathJax, KaTeX, MathML) by leveraging layout-aware rendering with lynx and a targeted LLM-based cleaning stage. This approach preserves the structural integrity of equations and code blocks while removing boilerplate, standardizing notation into LaTeX representation, and correcting inconsistencies. We collected a large, high-quality math corpus, namely Nemotron-CC-Math-3+ (133B tokens) and Nemotron-CC-Math-4+ (52B tokens). Notably, Nemotron-CC-Math-4+ not only surpasses all prior open math datasets-including MegaMath, FineMath, and OpenWebMath-but also contains 5.5 times more tokens than FineMath-4+, which was previously the highest-quality math pretraining dataset. When used to pretrain a Nemotron-T 8B model, our corpus yields +4.8 to +12.6 gains on MATH and +4.6 to +14.3 gains on MBPP+ over strong baselines, while also improving general-domain performance on MMLU and MMLU-Stem. We present the first pipeline to reliably extract scientific content--including math--from noisy web-scale data, yielding measurable gains in math, code, and general reasoning, and setting a new state of the art among open math pretraining corpora. To support open-source efforts, we release our code and datasets.

The general capabilities of Large Language Models (LLM) highly rely on the composition and selection on extensive pretraining datasets, treated as commercial secrets by several institutions. To mitigate this issue, we open-source the details of a universally applicable data processing pipeline and validate its effectiveness and potential by introducing a competitive LLM baseline. Specifically, the data processing pipeline consists of broad collection to scale up and reweighting to improve quality. We then pretrain a 7B model BaichuanSEED with 3T tokens processed by our pipeline without any deliberate downstream task-related optimization, followed by an easy but effective supervised fine-tuning stage. BaichuanSEED demonstrates consistency and predictability throughout training and achieves comparable performance on comprehensive benchmarks with several commercial advanced large language models, such as Qwen1.5 and Llama3. We also conduct several heuristic experiments to discuss the potential for further optimization of downstream tasks, such as mathematics and coding.

We introduce the latest series of TeleChat models: TeleChat2, TeleChat2.5, and T1, offering a significant upgrade over their predecessor, TeleChat. Despite minimal changes to the model architecture, the new series achieves substantial performance gains through enhanced training strategies in both pre-training and post-training stages. The series begins with TeleChat2, which undergoes pretraining on 10 trillion high-quality and diverse tokens. This is followed by Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) and Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) to further enhance its capabilities. TeleChat2.5 and T1 expand the pipeline by incorporating a continual pretraining phase with domain-specific datasets, combined with reinforcement learning (RL) to improve performance in code generation and mathematical reasoning tasks. The T1 variant is designed for complex reasoning, supporting long Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning and demonstrating substantial improvements in mathematics and coding. In contrast, TeleChat2.5 prioritizes speed, delivering rapid inference. Both flagship models of T1 and TeleChat2.5 are dense Transformer-based architectures with 115B parameters, showcasing significant advancements in reasoning and general task performance compared to the original TeleChat. Notably, T1-115B outperform proprietary models such as OpenAI's o1-mini and GPT-4o. We publicly release TeleChat2, TeleChat2.5 and T1, including post-trained versions with 35B and 115B parameters, to empower developers and researchers with state-of-the-art language models tailored for diverse applications.

Photometric data-driven classification of supernovae becomes a challenge due to the appearance of real-time processing of big data in astronomy. Recent studies have demonstrated the superior quality of solutions based on various machine learning models. These models learn to classify supernova types using their light curves as inputs. Preprocessing these curves is a crucial step that significantly affects the final quality. In this talk, we study the application of multilayer perceptron (MLP), bayesian neural network (BNN), and normalizing flows (NF) to approximate observations for a single light curve. We use these approximations as inputs for supernovae classification models and demonstrate that the proposed methods outperform the state-of-the-art based on Gaussian processes applying to the Zwicky Transient Facility Bright Transient Survey light curves. MLP demonstrates similar quality as Gaussian processes and speed increase. Normalizing Flows exceeds Gaussian processes in terms of approximation quality as well.

Time series forecasting models are increasingly scaled through large Transformer backbones, yet most existing approaches process all series through a shared dense computation path despite substantial heterogeneity in temporal structure. Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) offers a natural alternative by enabling conditional computation, but standard MoE routing leaves expert specialization weakly identified and often unstable during downstream adaptation. We propose AME-TS, a structure-guided sparse time series foundation model that aligns expert routing with interpretable temporal structure. AME-TS first uses a lightweight regime predictor to estimate series-level descriptors, including forecastability, seasonality, trend, and sparsity, and maps them to a soft structural prior over experts. This series-level prior guides token-level routing during training, encouraging structure-aligned specialization. On the GIFT-Eval benchmark, AME-TS delivers a strong accuracy-efficiency tradeoff across model scales: it substantially outperforms existing time series foundation models at small model scales and remains competitive with the strongest models at larger scales, while activating substantially fewer parameters through sparse routing. We further show that AME-TS learns more interpretable routing geometry and substantially more stable expert specialization than standard MoE during fine-tuning on the M5 dataset. These results suggest that structure-aware routing is an effective and reliable way to realize the benefits of sparse expert models for time series forecasting.

We study the complexity of sampling from a distribution over all index subsets of the set {1,...,n} with the probability of a subset S proportional to the determinant of the submatrix L_S of some ntimes n p.s.d. matrix L, where L_S corresponds to the entries of L indexed by S. Known as a determinantal point process, this distribution is used in machine learning to induce diversity in subset selection. In practice, we often wish to sample multiple subsets S with small expected size k = E[|S|] ll n from a very large matrix L, so it is important to minimize the preprocessing cost of the procedure (performed once) as well as the sampling cost (performed repeatedly). For this purpose, we propose a new algorithm which, given access to L, samples exactly from a determinantal point process while satisfying the following two properties: (1) its preprocessing cost is n cdot poly(k), i.e., sublinear in the size of L, and (2) its sampling cost is poly(k), i.e., independent of the size of L. Prior to our results, state-of-the-art exact samplers required O(n^3) preprocessing time and sampling time linear in n or dependent on the spectral properties of L. We also give a reduction which allows using our algorithm for exact sampling from cardinality constrained determinantal point processes with ncdotpoly(k) time preprocessing.

This paper presents OLinear, a linear-based multivariate time series forecasting model that operates in an orthogonally transformed domain. Recent forecasting models typically adopt the temporal forecast (TF) paradigm, which directly encode and decode time series in the time domain. However, the entangled step-wise dependencies in series data can hinder the performance of TF. To address this, some forecasters conduct encoding and decoding in the transformed domain using fixed, dataset-independent bases (e.g., sine and cosine signals in the Fourier transform). In contrast, we utilize OrthoTrans, a data-adaptive transformation based on an orthogonal matrix that diagonalizes the series' temporal Pearson correlation matrix. This approach enables more effective encoding and decoding in the decorrelated feature domain and can serve as a plug-in module to enhance existing forecasters. To enhance the representation learning for multivariate time series, we introduce a customized linear layer, NormLin, which employs a normalized weight matrix to capture multivariate dependencies. Empirically, the NormLin module shows a surprising performance advantage over multi-head self-attention, while requiring nearly half the FLOPs. Extensive experiments on 24 benchmarks and 140 forecasting tasks demonstrate that OLinear consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance with high efficiency. Notably, as a plug-in replacement for self-attention, the NormLin module consistently enhances Transformer-based forecasters. The code and datasets are available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/OLinear

Time series forecasting always faces the challenge of concept drift, where data distributions evolve over time, leading to a decline in forecast model performance. Existing solutions are based on online learning, which continually organize recent time series observations as new training samples and update model parameters according to the forecasting feedback on recent data. However, they overlook a critical issue: obtaining ground-truth future values of each sample should be delayed until after the forecast horizon. This delay creates a temporal gap between the training samples and the test sample. Our empirical analysis reveals that the gap can introduce concept drift, causing forecast models to adapt to outdated concepts. In this paper, we present Proceed, a novel proactive model adaptation framework for online time series forecasting. Proceed first estimates the concept drift between the recently used training samples and the current test sample. It then employs an adaptation generator to efficiently translate the estimated drift into parameter adjustments, proactively adapting the model to the test sample. To enhance the generalization capability of the framework, Proceed is trained on synthetic diverse concept drifts. Extensive experiments on five real-world datasets across various forecast models demonstrate that Proceed brings more performance improvements than the state-of-the-art online learning methods, significantly facilitating forecast models' resilience against concept drifts. Code is available at https://github.com/SJTU-DMTai/OnlineTSF.

Research in self-supervised learning (SSL) with natural images has progressed rapidly in recent years and is now increasingly being applied to and benchmarked with datasets containing remotely sensed imagery. A common benchmark case is to evaluate SSL pre-trained model embeddings on datasets of remotely sensed imagery with small patch sizes, e.g., 32x32 pixels, whereas standard SSL pre-training takes place with larger patch sizes, e.g., 224x224. Furthermore, pre-training methods tend to use different image normalization preprocessing steps depending on the dataset. In this paper, we show, across seven satellite and aerial imagery datasets of varying resolution, that by simply following the preprocessing steps used in pre-training (precisely, image sizing and normalization methods), one can achieve significant performance improvements when evaluating the extracted features on downstream tasks -- an important detail overlooked in previous work in this space. We show that by following these steps, ImageNet pre-training remains a competitive baseline for satellite imagery based transfer learning tasks -- for example we find that these steps give +32.28 to overall accuracy on the So2Sat random split dataset and +11.16 on the EuroSAT dataset. Finally, we report comprehensive benchmark results with a variety of simple baseline methods for each of the seven datasets, forming an initial benchmark suite for remote sensing imagery.

Symbolic regression (SR) is a challenging task in machine learning that involves finding a mathematical expression for a function based on its values. Recent advancements in SR have demonstrated the effectiveness of pretrained transformer-based models in generating equations as sequences, leveraging large-scale pretraining on synthetic datasets and offering notable advantages in terms of inference time over GP-based methods. However, these models primarily rely on supervised pretraining goals borrowed from text generation and overlook equation-specific objectives like accuracy and complexity. To address this, we propose TPSR, a Transformer-based Planning strategy for Symbolic Regression that incorporates Monte Carlo Tree Search into the transformer decoding process. Unlike conventional decoding strategies, TPSR enables the integration of non-differentiable feedback, such as fitting accuracy and complexity, as external sources of knowledge into the transformer-based equation generation process. Extensive experiments on various datasets show that our approach outperforms state-of-the-art methods, enhancing the model's fitting-complexity trade-off, extrapolation abilities, and robustness to noise

GPT series models, such as GPT-3, CodeX, InstructGPT, ChatGPT, and so on, have gained considerable attention due to their exceptional natural language processing capabilities. However, despite the abundance of research on the difference in capabilities between GPT series models and fine-tuned models, there has been limited attention given to the evolution of GPT series models' capabilities over time. To conduct a comprehensive analysis of the capabilities of GPT series models, we select six representative models, comprising two GPT-3 series models (i.e., davinci and text-davinci-001) and four GPT-3.5 series models (i.e., code-davinci-002, text-davinci-002, text-davinci-003, and gpt-3.5-turbo). We evaluate their performance on nine natural language understanding (NLU) tasks using 21 datasets. In particular, we compare the performance and robustness of different models for each task under zero-shot and few-shot scenarios. Our extensive experiments reveal that the overall ability of GPT series models on NLU tasks does not increase gradually as the models evolve, especially with the introduction of the RLHF training strategy. While this strategy enhances the models' ability to generate human-like responses, it also compromises their ability to solve some tasks. Furthermore, our findings indicate that there is still room for improvement in areas such as model robustness.

Continued pre-training of small language models offers a promising path for domain adaptation with limited computational resources. I've investigated this approach within educational domains, evaluating it as a resource-efficient alternative to training models from scratch. Using a 125M parameter model, I demonstrate significant performance improvements through incremental training on 400 million tokens, followed by further training to reach 1 billion tokens. My approach includes comprehensive data preprocessing, memory-optimized training configurations, and benchmark-based evaluation. Results show notable gains in knowledge-intensive tasks (MMLU +8.1%) and contextual understanding (HellaSwag +7.6%), while revealing educational domain specialization trade-offs. I analyze token efficiency, catastrophic forgetting mitigation strategies, and scaling patterns. My findings suggest that thoughtful preprocessing and training methodologies enable meaningful improvements in language model capabilities even with constrained computational resources, opening pathways for domain-specific adaptation of smaller language models.

Post-training has emerged as a crucial paradigm for adapting large-scale pre-trained models to various tasks, whose effects are fully reflected by delta parameters (i.e., the disparity between post-trained and pre-trained parameters). While numerous studies have explored delta parameter properties via operations like pruning, quantization, low-rank approximation, and extrapolation, a unified framework for systematically examining these characteristics has been lacking. In this paper, we propose a novel perspective based on Riemann sum approximation of the loss function to elucidate delta parameter editing operations. Our analysis categorizes existing methods into three classes based on their post-editing performance: competitive, decreased, and improved, explaining how they are expressed by the Riemann sum approximation term and how they alter the model performance. Extensive experiments on both visual and language models, including ViT, LLaMA 3, Qwen 2, and Mistral, corroborate our theoretical findings. Furthermore, we introduce extensions to existing techniques like DARE and BitDelta, highlighting their limitations in leveraging the properties of delta parameters and reorganizing them into general expressions to enhance the applicability and effectiveness of delta parameter editing in post-trained models.

Recent advancements in NLP have witnessed the groundbreaking impact of pretrained models, yielding impressive outcomes across various tasks. This study seeks to extend the power of pretraining methodologies to facilitating the prediction over tables in data science, a domain traditionally overlooked, yet inherently challenging due to the plethora of table schemas intrinsic to different tasks. The primary research questions underpinning this work revolve around the establishment of a universal pretraining protocol for tables with varied structures, the generalizability and transferability of learned knowledge across tasks, the adaptation to diverse downstream applications, and the incorporation of incremental columns over time. In response to these challenges, we introduce UniTabE, a straightforward yet effective method designed to process tables in a uniform manner, devoid of constraints imposed by specific table structures. UniTabE's core concept relies on representing each basic table element with a module, termed TabUnit. This is subsequently followed by a Transformer encoder to refine the representation. Moreover, our model is designed to facilitate pretraining and finetuning through the utilization of free-form prompts. In order to implement the pretraining phase, we curated an expansive tabular dataset comprising approximately 13B samples, meticulously gathered from the Kaggle platform. This research primarily centers on classification and regression tasks involving tabular data, and conducts rigorous experimental testing and analyses to validate the effectiveness of our methodology. The experimental results demonstrate UniTabE's superior performance against several baselines across massive benchmarks. This, therefore, underscores UniTabE's potential to significantly enhance the semantic representation of tabular data, thereby marking a significant stride for tabular data analysis.

Deep learning has contributed remarkably to the advancement of time series analysis. Still, deep models can encounter performance bottlenecks in real-world small-sample scenarios, which can be concealed due to the performance saturation with small models on current benchmarks. Meanwhile, large models have demonstrated great powers in these scenarios through large-scale pre-training. Continuous progresses have been achieved as the emergence of large language models, exhibiting unprecedented ability in few-shot generalization, scalability, and task generality, which is however absent in time series models. To change the current practices of training small models on specific datasets from scratch, this paper aims at an early development of large time series models (LTSM). During pre-training, we curate large-scale datasets with up to 1 billion time points, unify heterogeneous time series into single-series sequence (S3) format, and develop the GPT-style architecture toward LTSMs. To meet diverse application needs, we convert forecasting, imputation, and anomaly detection of time series into a unified generative task. The outcome of this study is a Time Series Transformer (Timer), that is pre-trained by autoregressive next token prediction on large multi-domain datasets, and is fine-tuned to downstream scenarios with promising abilities as an LTSM.

Pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) encapsulate large amounts of knowledge and take enormous amounts of compute to train. We make use of this resource, together with the observation that LLMs are able to transfer knowledge and performance from one domain or even modality to another seemingly-unrelated area, to help with multivariate demand time series forecasting. Attention in transformer-based methods requires something worth attending to -- more than just samples of a time-series. We explore different methods to map multivariate input time series into the LLM token embedding space. In particular, our novel multivariate patching strategy to embed time series features into decoder-only pre-trained Transformers produces results competitive with state-of-the-art time series forecasting models. We also use recently-developed weight-based diagnostics to validate our findings.

Extensive LLM applications demand efficient structured generations, particularly for LR(1) grammars, to produce outputs in specified formats (e.g., JSON). Existing methods primarily parse LR(1) grammars into a pushdown automaton (PDA), leading to runtime execution overhead for context-dependent token processing, especially inefficient under large inference batches. To address these issues, we propose Pre^3 that exploits deterministic pushdown automata (DPDA) to optimize the constrained LLM decoding efficiency. First, by precomputing prefix-conditioned edges during the preprocessing, Pre^3 enables ahead-of-time edge analysis and thus makes parallel transition processing possible. Second, by leveraging the prefix-conditioned edges, Pre^3 introduces a novel approach that transforms LR(1) transition graphs into DPDA, eliminating the need for runtime path exploration and achieving edge transitions with minimal overhead. Pre^3 can be seamlessly integrated into standard LLM inference frameworks, reducing time per output token (TPOT) by up to 40% and increasing throughput by up to 36% in our experiments. Our code is available at https://github.com/ModelTC/lightllm.

Extending the forecasting time is a critical demand for real applications, such as extreme weather early warning and long-term energy consumption planning. This paper studies the long-term forecasting problem of time series. Prior Transformer-based models adopt various self-attention mechanisms to discover the long-range dependencies. However, intricate temporal patterns of the long-term future prohibit the model from finding reliable dependencies. Also, Transformers have to adopt the sparse versions of point-wise self-attentions for long series efficiency, resulting in the information utilization bottleneck. Going beyond Transformers, we design Autoformer as a novel decomposition architecture with an Auto-Correlation mechanism. We break with the pre-processing convention of series decomposition and renovate it as a basic inner block of deep models. This design empowers Autoformer with progressive decomposition capacities for complex time series. Further, inspired by the stochastic process theory, we design the Auto-Correlation mechanism based on the series periodicity, which conducts the dependencies discovery and representation aggregation at the sub-series level. Auto-Correlation outperforms self-attention in both efficiency and accuracy. In long-term forecasting, Autoformer yields state-of-the-art accuracy, with a 38% relative improvement on six benchmarks, covering five practical applications: energy, traffic, economics, weather and disease. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/Autoformer.

Pre-training has been investigated to improve the efficiency and performance of training neural operators in data-scarce settings. However, it is largely in its infancy due to the inherent complexity and diversity, such as long trajectories, multiple scales and varying dimensions of partial differential equations (PDEs) data. In this paper, we present a new auto-regressive denoising pre-training strategy, which allows for more stable and efficient pre-training on PDE data and generalizes to various downstream tasks. Moreover, by designing a flexible and scalable model architecture based on Fourier attention, we can easily scale up the model for large-scale pre-training. We train our PDE foundation model with up to 0.5B parameters on 10+ PDE datasets with more than 100k trajectories. Extensive experiments show that we achieve SOTA on these benchmarks and validate the strong generalizability of our model to significantly enhance performance on diverse downstream PDE tasks like 3D data. Code is available at https://github.com/thu-ml/DPOT.

We present Timer-XL, a generative Transformer for unified time series forecasting. To uniformly predict 1D and 2D time series, we generalize next token prediction, predominantly adopted for causal generation of 1D sequences, to multivariate next token prediction. The proposed paradigm uniformly formulates various forecasting scenarios as a long-context generation problem. We opt for the generative Transformer, which can capture global-range and causal dependencies while providing contextual flexibility, to implement unified forecasting on univariate series characterized by non-stationarity, multivariate time series with complicated dynamics and correlations, and covariate-informed contexts that include both endogenous and exogenous variables. Technically, we propose a universal TimeAttention to facilitate generative Transformers on time series, which can effectively capture fine-grained intra- and inter-series dependencies of flattened time series tokens (patches) and is further strengthened by position embeddings in both temporal and variable dimensions. Timer-XL achieves state-of-the-art performance across challenging forecasting benchmarks through a unified approach. As a large time series model, it demonstrates notable model transferability by large-scale pre-training, as well as contextual flexibility in token lengths, positioning it as a one-for-all forecaster.

Code has been shown to be effective in enhancing the mathematical reasoning abilities of large language models due to its precision and accuracy. Previous works involving continued mathematical pretraining often include code that utilizes math-related packages, which are primarily designed for fields such as engineering, machine learning, signal processing, or module testing, rather than being directly focused on mathematical reasoning. In this paper, we introduce a novel method for generating mathematical code accompanied with corresponding reasoning steps for continued pretraining. Our approach begins with the construction of a high-quality mathematical continued pretraining dataset by incorporating math-related web data, code using mathematical packages, math textbooks, and synthetic data. Next, we construct reasoning steps by extracting LaTeX expressions, the conditions needed for the expressions, and the results of the expressions from the previously collected dataset. Based on this extracted information, we generate corresponding code to accurately capture the mathematical reasoning process. Appending the generated code to each reasoning step results in data consisting of paired natural language reasoning steps and their corresponding code. Combining this data with the original dataset results in a 19.2B-token high-performing mathematical pretraining corpus, which we name MathCode-Pile. Training several popular base models with this corpus significantly improves their mathematical abilities, leading to the creation of the MathCoder2 family of models. All of our data processing and training code is open-sourced, ensuring full transparency and easy reproducibility of the entire data collection and training pipeline. The code is released at https://github.com/mathllm/MathCoder2 .

We introduce Sundial, a family of native, flexible, and scalable time series foundation models. To predict the next-patch's distribution, we propose a TimeFlow Loss based on flow-matching, which facilitates native pre-training of Transformers on time series without discrete tokenization. Conditioned on arbitrary-length time series, our model is pre-trained without specifying any prior distribution and can generate multiple probable predictions, achieving flexibility in representation learning beyond using parametric densities. Towards time series foundation models, we leverage minimal but crucial adaptations of Transformers and curate TimeBench with 1 trillion time points, comprising mostly real-world datasets and synthetic data. By mitigating mode collapse through TimeFlow Loss, we pre-train a family of Sundial models on TimeBench, which exhibit unprecedented model capacity and generalization performance on zero-shot forecasting. In addition to presenting good scaling behavior, Sundial achieves new state-of-the-art on both point forecasting and probabilistic forecasting benchmarks. We believe that Sundial's pioneering generative paradigm will facilitate a wide variety of forecasting scenarios.

The recursive Neville algorithm allows one to calculate interpolating functions recursively. Upon a judicious choice of the abscissas used for the interpolation (and extrapolation), this algorithm leads to a method for convergence acceleration. For example, one can use the Neville algorithm in order to successively eliminate inverse powers of the upper limit of the summation from the partial sums of a given, slowly convergent input series. Here, we show that, for a particular choice of the abscissas used for the extrapolation, one can replace the recursive Neville scheme by a simple one-step transformation, while also obtaining access to subleading terms for the transformed series after convergence acceleration. The matrix-based, unified formulas allow one to estimate the rate of convergence of the partial sums of the input series to their limit. In particular, Bethe logarithms for hydrogen are calculated to 100 decimal digits. Generalizations of the method to series whose remainder terms can be expanded in terms of inverse factorial series, or series with half-integer powers, are also discussed.

While large language models have rapidly evolved towards general artificial intelligence, their versatility in analyzing time series data remains limited. To address this limitation, we propose a novel normalization technique that considers the inherent nature of tokenization. The proposed Tokenization-Optimized Normalization (TOKON) simplifies time series data by representing each element with a single token, effectively reducing the number of tokens by 2 to 3 times. Additionally, we introduce a novel prompt for time series forecasting, termed Time Series Forecasting with Care (TFSC), to further enhance forecasting performance. Experimental results demonstrate that TOKON improves root mean square error (RMSE) for multi-step forecasting by approximately 7% to 18%, depending on the dataset and prompting method. Furthermore, TFSC, when used in conjunction with TOKON, shows additional improvements in forecasting accuracy for certain datasets

Can AI help automate human-easy but computer-hard data preparation tasks that burden data scientists, practitioners, and crowd workers? We answer this question by presenting RPT, a denoising auto-encoder for tuple-to-X models (X could be tuple, token, label, JSON, and so on). RPT is pre-trained for a tuple-to-tuple model by corrupting the input tuple and then learning a model to reconstruct the original tuple. It adopts a Transformer-based neural translation architecture that consists of a bidirectional encoder (similar to BERT) and a left-to-right autoregressive decoder (similar to GPT), leading to a generalization of both BERT and GPT. The pre-trained RPT can already support several common data preparation tasks such as data cleaning, auto-completion and schema matching. Better still, RPT can be fine-tuned on a wide range of data preparation tasks, such as value normalization, data transformation, data annotation, etc. To complement RPT, we also discuss several appealing techniques such as collaborative training and few-shot learning for entity resolution, and few-shot learning and NLP question-answering for information extraction. In addition, we identify a series of research opportunities to advance the field of data preparation.

Symbolic regression (SR) aims to discover closed-form mathematical expressions that accurately describe data, offering interpretability and analytical insight beyond standard black-box models. Existing SR methods often rely on population-based search or autoregressive modeling, which struggle with scalability and symbolic consistency. We introduce LIES (Logarithm, Identity, Exponential, Sine), a fixed neural network architecture with interpretable primitive activations that are optimized to model symbolic expressions. We develop a framework to extract compact formulae from LIES networks by training with an appropriate oversampling strategy and a tailored loss function to promote sparsity and to prevent gradient instability. After training, it applies additional pruning strategies to further simplify the learned expressions into compact formulae. Our experiments on SR benchmarks show that the LIES framework consistently produces sparse and accurate symbolic formulae outperforming all baselines. We also demonstrate the importance of each design component through ablation studies.

In this work we propose for the first time a transformer-based framework for unsupervised representation learning of multivariate time series. Pre-trained models can be potentially used for downstream tasks such as regression and classification, forecasting and missing value imputation. By evaluating our models on several benchmark datasets for multivariate time series regression and classification, we show that not only does our modeling approach represent the most successful method employing unsupervised learning of multivariate time series presented to date, but also that it exceeds the current state-of-the-art performance of supervised methods; it does so even when the number of training samples is very limited, while offering computational efficiency. Finally, we demonstrate that unsupervised pre-training of our transformer models offers a substantial performance benefit over fully supervised learning, even without leveraging additional unlabeled data, i.e., by reusing the same data samples through the unsupervised objective.

Learning time series foundation models has been shown to be a promising approach for zero-shot time series forecasting across diverse time series domains. Insofar as scaling has been a critical driver of performance of foundation models in other modalities such as language and vision, much recent work on time series foundation modeling has focused on scaling. This has resulted in time series foundation models with hundreds of millions of parameters that are, while performant, inefficient and expensive to use in practice. This paper describes a simple recipe for learning efficient foundation models for zero-shot time series forecasting that are orders of magnitude smaller. We show that large-scale transformers are not necessary: small hybrid models that interleave long convolution and linear RNN layers (in particular DeltaNet layers) can match the performance of larger transformer-based models while being more than a hundred times smaller. We also describe several data augmentation and inference strategies that further improve performance. This recipe results in Reverso, a family of efficient time series foundation models for zero-shot forecasting that significantly push the performance-efficiency Pareto frontier.

Mathematical reasoning remains a significant challenge for Large Language Models (LLMs) due to hallucinations. When combined with formal proof assistants like Lean, these hallucinations can be eliminated through rigorous verification, making theorem proving reliable. However, even with formal verification, LLMs still struggle with long proofs and complex mathematical formalizations. While Lean with LLMs offers valuable assistance with retrieving lemmas, generating tactics, or even complete proofs, it lacks a crucial capability: providing a sense of proof progress. This limitation particularly impacts the overall development efficiency in large formalization projects. We introduce LeanProgress, a method that predicts the progress in the proof. Training and evaluating our models made on a large corpus of Lean proofs from Lean Workbook Plus and Mathlib4 and how many steps remain to complete it, we employ data preprocessing and balancing techniques to handle the skewed distribution of proof lengths. Our experiments show that LeanProgress achieves an overall prediction accuracy of 75.1\% in predicting the amount of progress and, hence, the remaining number of steps. When integrated into a best-first search framework using Reprover, our method shows a 3.8\% improvement on Mathlib4 compared to baseline performances of 41.2\%, particularly for longer proofs. These results demonstrate how proof progress prediction can enhance both automated and interactive theorem proving, enabling users to make more informed decisions about proof strategies.

Advancements in artificial intelligence, machine learning, and deep learning have catalyzed the transformation of big data analytics and management into pivotal domains for research and application. This work explores the theoretical foundations, methodological advancements, and practical implementations of these technologies, emphasizing their role in uncovering actionable insights from massive, high-dimensional datasets. The study presents a systematic overview of data preprocessing techniques, including data cleaning, normalization, integration, and dimensionality reduction, to prepare raw data for analysis. Core analytics methodologies such as classification, clustering, regression, and anomaly detection are examined, with a focus on algorithmic innovation and scalability. Furthermore, the text delves into state-of-the-art frameworks for data mining and predictive modeling, highlighting the role of neural networks, support vector machines, and ensemble methods in tackling complex analytical challenges. Special emphasis is placed on the convergence of big data with distributed computing paradigms, including cloud and edge computing, to address challenges in storage, computation, and real-time analytics. The integration of ethical considerations, including data privacy and compliance with global standards, ensures a holistic perspective on data management. Practical applications across healthcare, finance, marketing, and policy-making illustrate the real-world impact of these technologies. Through comprehensive case studies and Python-based implementations, this work equips researchers, practitioners, and data enthusiasts with the tools to navigate the complexities of modern data analytics. It bridges the gap between theory and practice, fostering the development of innovative solutions for managing and leveraging data in the era of artificial intelligence.

Time series analysis is vital for numerous applications, and transformers have become increasingly prominent in this domain. Leading methods customize the transformer architecture from NLP and CV, utilizing a patching technique to convert continuous signals into segments. Yet, time series data are uniquely challenging due to significant distribution shifts and intrinsic noise levels. To address these two challenges,we introduce the Sparse Vector Quantized FFN-Free Transformer (Sparse-VQ). Our methodology capitalizes on a sparse vector quantization technique coupled with Reverse Instance Normalization (RevIN) to reduce noise impact and capture sufficient statistics for forecasting, serving as an alternative to the Feed-Forward layer (FFN) in the transformer architecture. Our FFN-free approach trims the parameter count, enhancing computational efficiency and reducing overfitting. Through evaluations across ten benchmark datasets, including the newly introduced CAISO dataset, Sparse-VQ surpasses leading models with a 7.84% and 4.17% decrease in MAE for univariate and multivariate time series forecasting, respectively. Moreover, it can be seamlessly integrated with existing transformer-based models to elevate their performance.

Time series forecasting is crucial for various applications, such as weather forecasting, power load forecasting, and financial analysis. In recent studies, MLP-mixer models for time series forecasting have been shown as a promising alternative to transformer-based models. However, the performance of these models is still yet to reach its potential. In this paper, we propose Wavelet Patch Mixer (WPMixer), a novel MLP-based model, for long-term time series forecasting, which leverages the benefits of patching, multi-resolution wavelet decomposition, and mixing. Our model is based on three key components: (i) multi-resolution wavelet decomposition, (ii) patching and embedding, and (iii) MLP mixing. Multi-resolution wavelet decomposition efficiently extracts information in both the frequency and time domains. Patching allows the model to capture an extended history with a look-back window and enhances capturing local information while MLP mixing incorporates global information. Our model significantly outperforms state-of-the-art MLP-based and transformer-based models for long-term time series forecasting in a computationally efficient way, demonstrating its efficacy and potential for practical applications.

The success of large language models (LLMs) for time series has been demonstrated in previous work. Utilizing a symbolic time series representation, one can efficiently bridge the gap between LLMs and time series. However, the remaining challenge is to exploit the semantic information hidden in time series by using symbols or existing tokens of LLMs, while aligning the embedding space of LLMs according to the hidden information of time series. The symbolic time series approximation (STSA) method called adaptive Brownian bridge-based symbolic aggregation (ABBA) shows outstanding efficacy in preserving salient time series features by modeling time series patterns in terms of amplitude and period while using existing tokens of LLMs. In this paper, we introduce a method, called LLM-ABBA, that integrates ABBA into large language models for various downstream time series tasks. By symbolizing time series, LLM-ABBA compares favorably to the recent state-of-the-art (SOTA) in UCR and three medical time series classification tasks. Meanwhile, a fixed-polygonal chain trick in ABBA is introduced to avoid obvious drifting during forecasting tasks by significantly mitigating the effects of cumulative error arising from misused symbols during the transition from symbols to numerical values. In time series regression tasks, LLM-ABBA achieves the new SOTA on Time Series Extrinsic Regression (TSER) benchmarks. LLM-ABBA also shows competitive forecasting capability compared to recent SOTA time series forecasting results. We believe this framework can also seamlessly extend to other time series tasks. Our simulation code is publicly available at: https://github.com/inEXASCALE/llm-abba

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have recently gained significant attention due to their strong zero-shot capabilities and widespread real-world applications. Such models typically require a computationally costly pretraining on large-scale, carefully curated collections of real-world sequences. To allow for a sample-efficient pretraining of TSFMs, we propose CauKer, a novel algorithm designed to generate diverse, causally coherent synthetic time series with realistic trends, seasonality, and nonlinear interactions. CauKer combines Gaussian Process (GP) kernel composition with Structural Causal Models (SCM) to produce data for sample-efficient pretraining of state-of-the-art classification TSFMs having different architectures and following different pretraining approaches. Additionally, our experiments reveal that CauKer-generated datasets exhibit clear scaling laws for both dataset size (10K to 10M samples) and model capacity (1M to 783M parameters), unlike real-world datasets, which display irregular scaling behavior.

Time series forecasting is widely used in extensive applications, such as traffic planning and weather forecasting. However, real-world time series usually present intricate temporal variations, making forecasting extremely challenging. Going beyond the mainstream paradigms of plain decomposition and multiperiodicity analysis, we analyze temporal variations in a novel view of multiscale-mixing, which is based on an intuitive but important observation that time series present distinct patterns in different sampling scales. The microscopic and the macroscopic information are reflected in fine and coarse scales respectively, and thereby complex variations can be inherently disentangled. Based on this observation, we propose TimeMixer as a fully MLP-based architecture with Past-Decomposable-Mixing (PDM) and Future-Multipredictor-Mixing (FMM) blocks to take full advantage of disentangled multiscale series in both past extraction and future prediction phases. Concretely, PDM applies the decomposition to multiscale series and further mixes the decomposed seasonal and trend components in fine-to-coarse and coarse-to-fine directions separately, which successively aggregates the microscopic seasonal and macroscopic trend information. FMM further ensembles multiple predictors to utilize complementary forecasting capabilities in multiscale observations. Consequently, TimeMixer is able to achieve consistent state-of-the-art performances in both long-term and short-term forecasting tasks with favorable run-time efficiency.

Analyzing both temporal and spatial patterns for an accurate forecasting model for financial time series forecasting is a challenge due to the complex nature of temporal-spatial dynamics: time series from different locations often have distinct patterns; and for the same time series, patterns may vary as time goes by. Inspired by the successful applications of deep learning, we propose a new model to resolve the issues of forecasting household leverage in China. Our solution consists of multiple RNN-based layers and an attention layer: each RNN-based layer automatically learns the temporal pattern of a specific series with multivariate exogenous series, and then the attention layer learns the spatial correlative weight and obtains the global representations simultaneously. The results show that the new approach can capture the temporal-spatial dynamics of household leverage well and get more accurate and solid predictive results. More, the simulation also studies show that clustering and choosing correlative series are necessary to obtain accurate forecasting results.

Parameter-efficient transfer learning (PETL) has emerged as a flourishing research field for adapting large pre-trained models to downstream tasks, greatly reducing trainable parameters while grappling with memory challenges during fine-tuning. To address it, memory-efficient series (METL) avoid backpropagating gradients through the large backbone. However, they compromise by exclusively relying on frozen intermediate outputs and limiting the exhaustive exploration of prior knowledge from pre-trained models. Moreover, the dependency and redundancy between cross-layer features are frequently overlooked, thereby submerging more discriminative representations and causing an inherent performance gap (vs. conventional PETL methods). Hence, we propose an innovative METL strategy called SHERL for resource-limited scenarios to decouple the entire adaptation into two successive and complementary processes. In the early route, intermediate outputs are consolidated via an anti-redundancy operation, enhancing their compatibility for subsequent interactions; thereby in the late route, utilizing minimal late pre-trained layers could alleviate the peak demand on memory overhead and regulate these fairly flexible features into more adaptive and powerful representations for new domains. Extensive ablations on vision-and-language and language-only tasks show that SHERL combines the strengths of both parameter and memory-efficient techniques, performing on-par or better across diverse architectures with lower memory during fine-tuning. Our code is publicly available at: https://github.com/Paranioar/SHERL.

The success of large pretrained models in natural language processing (NLP) and computer vision (CV) has opened new avenues for constructing foundation models for time series forecasting (TSF). Traditional TSF foundation models rely heavily on numerical data fitting. In contrast, the human brain is inherently skilled at processing visual information, prefer predicting future trends by observing visualized sequences. From a biomimetic perspective, utilizing models to directly process numerical sequences might not be the most effective route to achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). This paper proposes ViTime, a novel Visual Intelligence-based foundation model for TSF. ViTime overcomes the limitations of numerical time series data fitting by utilizing visual data processing paradigms and employs a innovative data synthesis method during training, called Real Time Series (RealTS). Experiments on a diverse set of previously unseen forecasting datasets demonstrate that ViTime achieves state-of-the-art zero-shot performance, even surpassing the best individually trained supervised models in some situations. These findings suggest that visual intelligence can significantly enhance time series analysis and forecasting, paving the way for more advanced and versatile models in the field. The code for our framework is accessible at https://github.com/IkeYang/ViTime.

High-quality, large-scale corpora are the cornerstone of building foundation models. In this work, we introduce MathPile, a diverse and high-quality math-centric corpus comprising about 9.5 billion tokens. Throughout its creation, we adhered to the principle of ``less is more'', firmly believing in the supremacy of data quality over quantity, even in the pre-training phase. Our meticulous data collection and processing efforts included a complex suite of preprocessing, prefiltering, language identification, cleaning, filtering, and deduplication, ensuring the high quality of our corpus. Furthermore, we performed data contamination detection on downstream benchmark test sets to eliminate duplicates. We hope our MathPile can help to enhance the mathematical reasoning abilities of language models. We plan to open-source different versions of \mathpile with the scripts used for processing, to facilitate future developments in this field.

Reordering is a preprocessing stage for Statistical Machine Translation (SMT) system where the words of the source sentence are reordered as per the syntax of the target language. We are proposing a rich set of rules for better reordering. The idea is to facilitate the training process by better alignments and parallel phrase extraction for a phrase-based SMT system. Reordering also helps the decoding process and hence improving the machine translation quality. We have observed significant improvements in the translation quality by using our approach over the baseline SMT. We have used BLEU, NIST, multi-reference word error rate, multi-reference position independent error rate for judging the improvements. We have exploited open source SMT toolkit MOSES to develop the system.

Data normalization is one of the most important preprocessing steps when building a machine learning model, especially when the model of interest is a deep neural network. This is because deep neural network optimized with stochastic gradient descent is sensitive to the input variable range and prone to numerical issues. Different than other types of signals, financial time-series often exhibit unique characteristics such as high volatility, non-stationarity and multi-modality that make them challenging to work with, often requiring expert domain knowledge for devising a suitable processing pipeline. In this paper, we propose a novel data-driven normalization method for deep neural networks that handle high-frequency financial time-series. The proposed normalization scheme, which takes into account the bimodal characteristic of financial multivariate time-series, requires no expert knowledge to preprocess a financial time-series since this step is formulated as part of the end-to-end optimization process. Our experiments, conducted with state-of-the-arts neural networks and high-frequency data from two large-scale limit order books coming from the Nordic and US markets, show significant improvements over other normalization techniques in forecasting future stock price dynamics.

Probabilistic circuits (PCs) are a tractable representation of probability distributions allowing for exact and efficient computation of likelihoods and marginals. There has been significant recent progress on improving the scale and expressiveness of PCs. However, PC training performance plateaus as model size increases. We discover that most capacity in existing large PC structures is wasted: fully-connected parameter layers are only sparsely used. We propose two operations: pruning and growing, that exploit the sparsity of PC structures. Specifically, the pruning operation removes unimportant sub-networks of the PC for model compression and comes with theoretical guarantees. The growing operation increases model capacity by increasing the size of the latent space. By alternatingly applying pruning and growing, we increase the capacity that is meaningfully used, allowing us to significantly scale up PC learning. Empirically, our learner achieves state-of-the-art likelihoods on MNIST-family image datasets and on Penn Tree Bank language data compared to other PC learners and less tractable deep generative models such as flow-based models and variational autoencoders (VAEs).

Complex numerical time series analysis often demands multi-step reasoning capabilities beyond current models' reach. Tasks like medical diagnosis and weather forecasting require sequential reasoning processes - including counterfactual analysis, logical deduction, knowledge application, and multi-modal contextual integration - that existing time series models cannot explicitly perform. While recent research has shown large language models (LLMs) can achieve sophisticated Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning through reinforcement learning (RL), these advances have primarily focused on mathematical and coding domains, with LLMs still demonstrating poor performance on time series tasks. We introduce Chain Of thought for Understanding Numerical Time Series (COUNTS), the first framework that trains LLMs to perform CoT reasoning across diverse time series tasks using RL with verifiable rewards. Our approach employs a Residual Vector-Quantized VAE to create high-fidelity discrete tokens that seamlessly integrate into a pre-trained LLM's vocabulary. COUNTS undergoes a two-stage training process: first, supervised fine-tuning on time series analysis tasks to master our novel representations, followed by Group Relative Policy Optimization training on verifiable problems using prompting strategies that encourage explicit reasoning steps before producing final answers. Our experiments demonstrate that this RL-driven approach with intermediate CoT reasoning significantly enhances LLM performance across various time series analysis tasks, opening new possibilities for complex temporal data reasoning.

Decoding-based regression, which reformulates regression as a sequence generation task, has emerged as a promising paradigm of applying large language models for numerical prediction. However, its progress is hindered by the misalignment between discrete token-level objectives (e.g., cross-entropy) and continuous numerical values. Existing approaches relying on token-level constraints often fail to capture the global magnitude of the target value, limiting their precision and generalization. In this paper, we propose to unlock the potential of decoding-based regression via Reinforcement Learning (RL). We formulate the generation process as a Markov Decision Process, utilizing sequence-level rewards to enforce global numerical coherence. Extensive experiments on tabular regression and code metric regression demonstrate that our method (specifically with ReMax and GRPO) consistently outperforms both state-of-the-art token-level baselines and traditional regression heads, showing the superiority of introducing sequence-level signals. Our analysis further reveals that RL significantly enhances sampling efficiency and predictive precision, establishing decoding-based regression as a robust and accurate paradigm for general-purpose numerical prediction.

While frontier large language models demonstrate strong reasoning and mathematical capabilities, the practical process of training domain-specialized scientific language models from raw sources remains under-documented. In this work, we present a detailed case study of training a 1.36B-parameter scientific language model directly from raw arXiv LaTeX sources spanning mathematics, computer science, and theoretical physics. We describe an end-to-end pipeline covering metadata filtering, archive validation, LaTeX extraction, text normalization, domain-aware tokenization, and dense transformer training under constrained compute (2xA100 GPUs). Through 24 experimental runs, we analyze training stability, scaling behavior, data yield losses, and infrastructure bottlenecks. Our findings highlight how preprocessing decisions significantly affect usable token volume, how tokenization impacts symbolic stability, and how storage and I/O constraints can rival compute as limiting factors. We further analyze convergence dynamics and show stable training behavior in a data-rich regime (52B pretraining tokens). Rather than proposing a novel architecture, this work provides an engineering-grounded, transparent account of training a small scientific language model from scratch. We hope these insights support researchers operating under moderate compute budgets who seek to build domain-specialized models.

We propose an efficient design of Transformer-based models for multivariate time series forecasting and self-supervised representation learning. It is based on two key components: (i) segmentation of time series into subseries-level patches which are served as input tokens to Transformer; (ii) channel-independence where each channel contains a single univariate time series that shares the same embedding and Transformer weights across all the series. Patching design naturally has three-fold benefit: local semantic information is retained in the embedding; computation and memory usage of the attention maps are quadratically reduced given the same look-back window; and the model can attend longer history. Our channel-independent patch time series Transformer (PatchTST) can improve the long-term forecasting accuracy significantly when compared with that of SOTA Transformer-based models. We also apply our model to self-supervised pre-training tasks and attain excellent fine-tuning performance, which outperforms supervised training on large datasets. Transferring of masked pre-trained representation on one dataset to others also produces SOTA forecasting accuracy. Code is available at: https://github.com/yuqinie98/PatchTST.

Forecasting on sparse multivariate time series (MTS) aims to model the predictors of future values of time series given their incomplete past, which is important for many emerging applications. However, most existing methods process MTS's individually, and do not leverage the dynamic distributions underlying the MTS's, leading to sub-optimal results when the sparsity is high. To address this challenge, we propose a novel generative model, which tracks the transition of latent clusters, instead of isolated feature representations, to achieve robust modeling. It is characterized by a newly designed dynamic Gaussian mixture distribution, which captures the dynamics of clustering structures, and is used for emitting timeseries. The generative model is parameterized by neural networks. A structured inference network is also designed for enabling inductive analysis. A gating mechanism is further introduced to dynamically tune the Gaussian mixture distributions. Extensive experimental results on a variety of real-life datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

Time series forecasting is a fundamental problem with applications in climate, energy, healthcare, and finance. Many existing approaches require domain-specific feature engineering and substantial labeled data for each task. We introduce PatchFormer, a patch-based time series foundation model that uses hierarchical masked reconstruction for self-supervised pretraining and lightweight adapters for efficient transfer. PatchFormer segments time series into patches and learns multiscale temporal representations with learnable aggregation across temporal scales. Pretraining uses masked patch reconstruction with dynamic masking and objectives that encourage both local accuracy and global consistency, followed by cross-domain knowledge distillation. Experiments on 24 benchmark datasets spanning weather, energy, traffic, finance, and healthcare demonstrate state-of-the-art zero-shot multi-horizon forecasting, reducing mean squared error by 27.3 percent relative to strong baselines while requiring 94 percent less task-specific training data. The model exhibits near log-linear scaling with more pretraining data up to 100 billion points and processes length-512 sequences 3.8x faster than full-sequence transformers.

In time series editing, we aim to modify some properties of a given time series without altering others. For example, when analyzing a hospital patient's blood pressure, we may add a sudden early drop and observe how it impacts their future while preserving other conditions. Existing diffusion-based editors rely on rigid, predefined attribute vectors as conditions and produce all-or-nothing edits through sampling. This attribute- and sampling-based approach limits flexibility in condition format and lacks customizable control over editing strength. To overcome these limitations, we introduce Instruction-based Time Series Editing, where users specify intended edits using natural language. This allows users to express a wider range of edits in a more accessible format. We then introduce InstructTime, the first instruction-based time series editor. InstructTime takes in time series and instructions, embeds them into a shared multi-modal representation space, then decodes their embeddings to generate edited time series. By learning a structured multi-modal representation space, we can easily interpolate between embeddings to achieve varying degrees of edit. To handle local and global edits together, we propose multi-resolution encoders. In our experiments, we use synthetic and real datasets and find that InstructTime is a state-of-the-art time series editor: InstructTime achieves high-quality edits with controllable strength, can generalize to unseen instructions, and can be easily adapted to unseen conditions through few-shot learning.

Temporal data such as time series can be viewed as discretized measurements of the underlying function. To build a generative model for such data we have to model the stochastic process that governs it. We propose a solution by defining the denoising diffusion model in the function space which also allows us to naturally handle irregularly-sampled observations. The forward process gradually adds noise to functions, preserving their continuity, while the learned reverse process removes the noise and returns functions as new samples. To this end, we define suitable noise sources and introduce novel denoising and score-matching models. We show how our method can be used for multivariate probabilistic forecasting and imputation, and how our model can be interpreted as a neural process.

In this report, we present a series of math-specific large language models: Qwen2.5-Math and Qwen2.5-Math-Instruct-1.5B/7B/72B. The core innovation of the Qwen2.5 series lies in integrating the philosophy of self-improvement throughout the entire pipeline, from pre-training and post-training to inference: (1) During the pre-training phase, Qwen2-Math-Instruct is utilized to generate large-scale, high-quality mathematical data. (2) In the post-training phase, we develop a reward model (RM) by conducting massive sampling from Qwen2-Math-Instruct. This RM is then applied to the iterative evolution of data in supervised fine-tuning (SFT). With a stronger SFT model, it's possible to iteratively train and update the RM, which in turn guides the next round of SFT data iteration. On the final SFT model, we employ the ultimate RM for reinforcement learning, resulting in the Qwen2.5-Math-Instruct. (3) Furthermore, during the inference stage, the RM is used to guide sampling, optimizing the model's performance. Qwen2.5-Math-Instruct supports both Chinese and English, and possess advanced mathematical reasoning capabilities, including Chain-of-Thought (CoT) and Tool-Integrated Reasoning (TIR). We evaluate our models on 10 mathematics datasets in both English and Chinese, such as GSM8K, MATH, GaoKao, AMC23, and AIME24, covering a range of difficulties from grade school level to math competition problems.

This paper introduces a novel training methodology that enables a small Transformer model to generalize the addition of two-digit numbers to numbers with unseen lengths of digits. The proposed approach employs an autoregressive generation technique, processing from right to left, which mimics a common manual method for adding large numbers. To the best of my knowledge, this methodology has not been previously explored in the literature. All results are reproducible, and the corresponding R code is available at: https://github.com/AGPatriota/ALGA-R/.

By encoding time series as a string of numerical digits, we can frame time series forecasting as next-token prediction in text. Developing this approach, we find that large language models (LLMs) such as GPT-3 and LLaMA-2 can surprisingly zero-shot extrapolate time series at a level comparable to or exceeding the performance of purpose-built time series models trained on the downstream tasks. To facilitate this performance, we propose procedures for effectively tokenizing time series data and converting discrete distributions over tokens into highly flexible densities over continuous values. We argue the success of LLMs for time series stems from their ability to naturally represent multimodal distributions, in conjunction with biases for simplicity, and repetition, which align with the salient features in many time series, such as repeated seasonal trends. We also show how LLMs can naturally handle missing data without imputation through non-numerical text, accommodate textual side information, and answer questions to help explain predictions. While we find that increasing model size generally improves performance on time series, we show GPT-4 can perform worse than GPT-3 because of how it tokenizes numbers, and poor uncertainty calibration, which is likely the result of alignment interventions such as RLHF.

Pruning eliminates unnecessary parameters in neural networks; it offers a promising solution to the growing computational demands of large language models (LLMs). While many focus on post-training pruning, sparse pre-training--which combines pruning and pre-training into a single phase--provides a simpler alternative. In this work, we present the first systematic exploration of optimal sparse pre-training configurations for LLMs through an examination of 80 unique pruning schedules across different sparsity levels and training durations. We find that initiating pruning at 25% of total training compute and concluding at 75% achieves near-optimal final evaluation loss. These findings provide valuable insights for efficient and effective sparse pre-training of LLMs. Furthermore, we propose a new scaling law that modifies the Chinchilla scaling law to use the average parameter count over pre-training. Through empirical and theoretical validation, we demonstrate that this modified scaling law accurately models evaluation loss for both sparsely and densely pre-trained LLMs, unifying scaling laws across pre-training paradigms. Our findings indicate that while sparse pre-training achieves the same final model quality as dense pre-training for equivalent compute budgets, it provides substantial benefits through reduced model size, enabling significant potential computational savings during inference.

Visual language data such as plots, charts, and infographics are ubiquitous in the human world. However, state-of-the-art vision-language models do not perform well on these data. We propose MatCha (Math reasoning and Chart derendering pretraining) to enhance visual language models' capabilities in jointly modeling charts/plots and language data. Specifically, we propose several pretraining tasks that cover plot deconstruction and numerical reasoning which are the key capabilities in visual language modeling. We perform the MatCha pretraining starting from Pix2Struct, a recently proposed image-to-text visual language model. On standard benchmarks such as PlotQA and ChartQA, the MatCha model outperforms state-of-the-art methods by as much as nearly 20%. We also examine how well MatCha pretraining transfers to domains such as screenshots, textbook diagrams, and document figures and observe overall improvement, verifying the usefulness of MatCha pretraining on broader visual language tasks.

There is growing evidence that pretraining on high quality, carefully thought-out tokens such as code or mathematics plays an important role in improving the reasoning abilities of large language models. For example, Minerva, a PaLM model finetuned on billions of tokens of mathematical documents from arXiv and the web, reported dramatically improved performance on problems that require quantitative reasoning. However, because all known open source web datasets employ preprocessing that does not faithfully preserve mathematical notation, the benefits of large scale training on quantitive web documents are unavailable to the research community. We introduce OpenWebMath, an open dataset inspired by these works containing 14.7B tokens of mathematical webpages from Common Crawl. We describe in detail our method for extracting text and LaTeX content and removing boilerplate from HTML documents, as well as our methods for quality filtering and deduplication. Additionally, we run small-scale experiments by training 1.4B parameter language models on OpenWebMath, showing that models trained on 14.7B tokens of our dataset surpass the performance of models trained on over 20x the amount of general language data. We hope that our dataset, openly released on the Hugging Face Hub, will help spur advances in the reasoning abilities of large language models.

Pretrained time series models have enabled inference-only forecasting systems that produce accurate predictions without task-specific training. However, existing approaches largely focus on univariate forecasting, limiting their applicability in real-world scenarios where multivariate data and covariates play a crucial role. We present Chronos-2, a pretrained model capable of handling univariate, multivariate, and covariate-informed forecasting tasks in a zero-shot manner. Chronos-2 employs a group attention mechanism that facilitates in-context learning (ICL) through efficient information sharing across multiple time series within a group, which may represent sets of related series, variates of a multivariate series, or targets and covariates in a forecasting task. These general capabilities are achieved through training on synthetic datasets that impose diverse multivariate structures on univariate series. Chronos-2 delivers state-of-the-art performance across three comprehensive benchmarks: fev-bench, GIFT-Eval, and Chronos Benchmark II. On fev-bench, which emphasizes multivariate and covariate-informed forecasting, Chronos-2's universal ICL capabilities lead to substantial improvements over existing models. On tasks involving covariates, it consistently outperforms baselines by a wide margin. Case studies in the energy and retail domains further highlight its practical advantages. The in-context learning capabilities of Chronos-2 establish it as a general-purpose forecasting model that can be used "as is" in real-world forecasting pipelines.

We introduce Chronos, a simple yet effective framework for pretrained probabilistic time series models. Chronos tokenizes time series values using scaling and quantization into a fixed vocabulary and trains existing transformer-based language model architectures on these tokenized time series via the cross-entropy loss. We pretrained Chronos models based on the T5 family (ranging from 20M to 710M parameters) on a large collection of publicly available datasets, complemented by a synthetic dataset that we generated via Gaussian processes to improve generalization. In a comprehensive benchmark consisting of 42 datasets, and comprising both classical local models and deep learning methods, we show that Chronos models: (a) significantly outperform other methods on datasets that were part of the training corpus; and (b) have comparable and occasionally superior zero-shot performance on new datasets, relative to methods that were trained specifically on them. Our results demonstrate that Chronos models can leverage time series data from diverse domains to improve zero-shot accuracy on unseen forecasting tasks, positioning pretrained models as a viable tool to greatly simplify forecasting pipelines.

The imperative need to scale computation across numerous nodes highlights the significance of efficient parallel computing, particularly in the realm of Message Passing Interface (MPI) integration. The challenging parallel programming task of generating MPI-based parallel programs has remained unexplored. This study first investigates the performance of state-of-the-art language models in generating MPI-based parallel programs. Findings reveal that widely used models such as GPT-3.5 and PolyCoder (specialized multi-lingual code models) exhibit notable performance degradation, when generating MPI-based programs compared to general-purpose programs. In contrast, domain-specific models such as MonoCoder, which are pretrained on MPI-related programming languages of C and C++, outperform larger models. Subsequently, we introduce a dedicated downstream task of MPI-based program generation by fine-tuning MonoCoder on HPCorpusMPI. We call the resulting model as MPIrigen. We propose an innovative preprocessing for completion only after observing the whole code, thus enabling better completion with a wider context. Comparative analysis against GPT-3.5 zero-shot performance, using a novel HPC-oriented evaluation method, demonstrates that MPIrigen excels in generating accurate MPI functions up to 0.8 accuracy in location and function predictions, and with more than 0.9 accuracy for argument predictions. The success of this tailored solution underscores the importance of domain-specific fine-tuning in optimizing language models for parallel computing code generation, paving the way for a new generation of automatic parallelization tools. The sources of this work are available at our GitHub MPIrigen repository: https://github.com/Scientific-Computing-Lab-NRCN/MPI-rigen

Transformers have been actively studied for time-series forecasting in recent years. While often showing promising results in various scenarios, traditional Transformers are not designed to fully exploit the characteristics of time-series data and thus suffer some fundamental limitations, e.g., they generally lack of decomposition capability and interpretability, and are neither effective nor efficient for long-term forecasting. In this paper, we propose ETSFormer, a novel time-series Transformer architecture, which exploits the principle of exponential smoothing in improving Transformers for time-series forecasting. In particular, inspired by the classical exponential smoothing methods in time-series forecasting, we propose the novel exponential smoothing attention (ESA) and frequency attention (FA) to replace the self-attention mechanism in vanilla Transformers, thus improving both accuracy and efficiency. Based on these, we redesign the Transformer architecture with modular decomposition blocks such that it can learn to decompose the time-series data into interpretable time-series components such as level, growth and seasonality. Extensive experiments on various time-series benchmarks validate the efficacy and advantages of the proposed method. Code is available at https://github.com/salesforce/ETSformer.

Negative binomial regression is essential for analyzing over-dispersed count data in in comparative studies, but parameter estimation becomes computationally challenging in large screens requiring millions of comparisons. We investigate using a pre-trained transformer to produce estimates of negative binomial regression parameters from observed count data, trained through synthetic data generation to learn to invert the process of generating counts from parameters. The transformer method achieved better parameter accuracy than maximum likelihood optimization while being 20 times faster. However, comparisons unexpectedly revealed that method of moment estimates performed as well as maximum likelihood optimization in accuracy, while being 1,000 times faster and producing better-calibrated and more powerful tests, making it the most efficient solution for this application.

We introduce TopoPrimer, a framework that makes the global topological structure of the series population an explicit input to any forecasting model. TopoPrimer improves accuracy across diverse domains, stabilizes forecasts under seasonal demand spikes, and closes the cold-start gap. Precomputed once per domain via persistent homology and spectral sheaf coordinates, TopoPrimer deploys per token for fully-trained models and as a lightweight adapter for pre-trained backbones. Of these two components, sheaf coordinates are the primary accuracy driver. Across four public benchmarks on Chronos and TimesFM, TopoPrimer consistently improves forecasting accuracy, with gains of up to 7.3% MSE on ECL. The topology advantage persists with near-identical magnitude across zero-shot and fine-tuned backbones, suggesting topology and per-series training capture complementary signals. The gains are most pronounced in difficult regimes. Under peak seasonal demand, classical and zero-shot models degrade by up to 50%, while TopoPrimer stays within 10%. At cold start with no item history, TopoPrimer reduces MAE by 27% over a topology-free baseline.

Large pre-trained models for zero/few-shot learning excel in language and vision domains but encounter challenges in multivariate time series (TS) due to the diverse nature and scarcity of publicly available pre-training data. Consequently, there has been a recent surge in utilizing pre-trained large language models (LLMs) with token adaptations for TS forecasting. These approaches employ cross-domain transfer learning and surprisingly yield impressive results. However, these models are typically very slow and large (~billion parameters) and do not consider cross-channel correlations. To address this, we present Tiny Time Mixers (TTM), a significantly small model based on the lightweight TSMixer architecture. TTM marks the first success in developing fast and tiny general pre-trained models (<1M parameters), exclusively trained on public TS datasets, with effective transfer learning capabilities for forecasting. To tackle the complexity of pre-training on multiple datasets with varied temporal resolutions, we introduce several novel enhancements such as adaptive patching, dataset augmentation via downsampling, and resolution prefix tuning. Moreover, we employ a multi-level modeling strategy to effectively model channel correlations and infuse exogenous signals during fine-tuning, a crucial capability lacking in existing benchmarks. TTM shows significant accuracy gains (12-38\%) over popular benchmarks in few/zero-shot forecasting. It also drastically reduces the compute needs as compared to LLM-TS methods, with a 14X cut in learnable parameters, 106X less total parameters, and substantial reductions in fine-tuning (65X) and inference time (54X). In fact, TTM's zero-shot often surpasses the few-shot results in many popular benchmarks, highlighting the efficacy of our approach. Code and pre-trained models will be open-sourced.

Magnitude pruning is a widely used strategy for reducing model size in pure supervised learning; however, it is less effective in the transfer learning regime that has become standard for state-of-the-art natural language processing applications. We propose the use of movement pruning, a simple, deterministic first-order weight pruning method that is more adaptive to pretrained model fine-tuning. We give mathematical foundations to the method and compare it to existing zeroth- and first-order pruning methods. Experiments show that when pruning large pretrained language models, movement pruning shows significant improvements in high-sparsity regimes. When combined with distillation, the approach achieves minimal accuracy loss with down to only 3% of the model parameters.

Time series reasoning treats time as a first-class axis and incorporates intermediate evidence directly into the answer. This survey defines the problem and organizes the literature by reasoning topology with three families: direct reasoning in one step, linear chain reasoning with explicit intermediates, and branch-structured reasoning that explores, revises, and aggregates. The topology is crossed with the main objectives of the field, including traditional time series analysis, explanation and understanding, causal inference and decision making, and time series generation, while a compact tag set spans these axes and captures decomposition and verification, ensembling, tool use, knowledge access, multimodality, agent loops, and LLM alignment regimes. Methods and systems are reviewed across domains, showing what each topology enables and where it breaks down in faithfulness or robustness, along with curated datasets, benchmarks, and resources that support study and deployment (https://github.com/blacksnail789521/Time-Series-Reasoning-Survey). Evaluation practices that keep evidence visible and temporally aligned are highlighted, and guidance is distilled on matching topology to uncertainty, grounding with observable artifacts, planning for shift and streaming, and treating cost and latency as design budgets. We emphasize that reasoning structures must balance capacity for grounding and self-correction against computational cost and reproducibility, while future progress will likely depend on benchmarks that tie reasoning quality to utility and on closed-loop testbeds that trade off cost and risk under shift-aware, streaming, and long-horizon settings. Taken together, these directions mark a shift from narrow accuracy toward reliability at scale, enabling systems that not only analyze but also understand, explain, and act on dynamic worlds with traceable evidence and credible outcomes.

While data are the primary fuel for machine learning models, they often suffer from missing values, especially when collected in real-world scenarios. However, many off-the-shelf machine learning models, including artificial neural network models, are unable to handle these missing values directly. Therefore, extra data preprocessing and curation steps, such as data imputation, are inevitable before learning and prediction processes. In this study, we propose a simple and intuitive yet effective method for pruning missing values (PROMISSING) during learning and inference steps in neural networks. In this method, there is no need to remove or impute the missing values; instead, the missing values are treated as a new source of information (representing what we do not know). Our experiments on simulated data, several classification and regression benchmarks, and a multi-modal clinical dataset show that PROMISSING results in similar prediction performance compared to various imputation techniques. In addition, our experiments show models trained using PROMISSING techniques are becoming less decisive in their predictions when facing incomplete samples with many unknowns. This finding hopefully advances machine learning models from being pure predicting machines to more realistic thinkers that can also say "I do not know" when facing incomplete sources of information.

To overcome the overparameterized problem in Pre-trained Language Models (PLMs), pruning is widely used as a simple and straightforward compression method by directly removing unimportant weights. Previous first-order methods successfully compress PLMs to extremely high sparsity with little performance drop. These methods, such as movement pruning, use first-order information to prune PLMs while fine-tuning the remaining weights. In this work, we argue fine-tuning is redundant for first-order pruning, since first-order pruning is sufficient to converge PLMs to downstream tasks without fine-tuning. Under this motivation, we propose Static Model Pruning (SMP), which only uses first-order pruning to adapt PLMs to downstream tasks while achieving the target sparsity level. In addition, we also design a new masking function and training objective to further improve SMP. Extensive experiments at various sparsity levels show SMP has significant improvements over first-order and zero-order methods. Unlike previous first-order methods, SMP is also applicable to low sparsity and outperforms zero-order methods. Meanwhile, SMP is more parameter efficient than other methods due to it does not require fine-tuning.

Time series captioning, the task of describing numeric time series in natural language, requires numerical reasoning, trend interpretation, and contextual understanding. Existing benchmarks, however, often rely on synthetic data or overly simplistic captions, and typically neglect metadata and visual representations. To close this gap, we introduce CaTS-Bench, the first large-scale, real-world benchmark for Context-aware Time Series captioning. CaTS-Bench is derived from 11 diverse datasets reframed as captioning and Q&A tasks, comprising roughly 465k training and 105k test timestamps. Each sample includes a numeric series segment, contextual metadata, a line-chart image, and a caption. A key contribution of this work is the scalable pipeline used to generate reference captions: while most references are produced by an oracle LLM and verified through factual checks, human indistinguishability studies, and diversity analyses, we also provide a human-revisited subset of 579 test captions, refined from LLM outputs to ensure accuracy and human-like style. Beyond captioning, CaTS-Bench offers 460 multiple-choice questions targeting deeper aspects of time series reasoning. We further propose new tailored evaluation metrics and benchmark leading VLMs, highlighting both their strengths and persistent limitations. Together, these contributions establish CaTS-Bench and its captioning pipeline as a reliable and extensible foundation for future research at the intersection of time series analysis and foundation models.

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) advance generalization and data efficiency in time series forecasting by unified large-scale pretraining. But TSFMs remain lacking when adapting to specific downstream forecasting tasks for two reasons. First, the non-stationary and uncertain nature of time series data lead to inevitable temporal distribution shifts between historical training and future testing data, while current Supervised FineTuning (SFT)-based methods are prone to overfitting and may degrade generalization. Second, training data availability varies across forecasting tasks, requiring TSFMs to generalize well under diverse data regimes. To address these challenges, we introduce the Time series Reinforcement Finetuning (TimeRFT) paradigm for TSFM downstream adaptation, which consists of two task-specific training recipes: i) A forecasting quality-based temporal reward mechanism that conducts a multi-faceted evaluation of the contribution of each prediction step to overall forecasting accuracy. ii) A forecasting difficulty-based data selection strategy to identify time series samples with generalizable predictive patterns and informative training signals. Extensive experiments demonstrate TimeRFT can consistently outperform SFT-based adaptation methods across various real-world forecasting tasks and training data regimes, enhancing prediction accuracy and generalization against unforeseen distribution shifts.

Transformer-based foundation models have emerged as a dominant paradigm in time series analysis, offering unprecedented capabilities in tasks such as forecasting, anomaly detection, classification, trend analysis and many more time series analytical tasks. This survey provides a comprehensive overview of the current state of the art pre-trained foundation models, introducing a novel taxonomy to categorize them across several dimensions. Specifically, we classify models by their architecture design, distinguishing between those leveraging patch-based representations and those operating directly on raw sequences. The taxonomy further includes whether the models provide probabilistic or deterministic predictions, and whether they are designed to work with univariate time series or can handle multivariate time series out of the box. Additionally, the taxonomy encompasses model scale and complexity, highlighting differences between lightweight architectures and large-scale foundation models. A unique aspect of this survey is its categorization by the type of objective function employed during training phase. By synthesizing these perspectives, this survey serves as a resource for researchers and practitioners, providing insights into current trends and identifying promising directions for future research in transformer-based time series modeling.

Symbolic equations are at the core of scientific discovery. The task of discovering the underlying equation from a set of input-output pairs is called symbolic regression. Traditionally, symbolic regression methods use hand-designed strategies that do not improve with experience. In this paper, we introduce the first symbolic regression method that leverages large scale pre-training. We procedurally generate an unbounded set of equations, and simultaneously pre-train a Transformer to predict the symbolic equation from a corresponding set of input-output-pairs. At test time, we query the model on a new set of points and use its output to guide the search for the equation. We show empirically that this approach can re-discover a set of well-known physical equations, and that it improves over time with more data and compute.

Many businesses and industries nowadays rely on large quantities of time series data making time series forecasting an important research area. Global forecasting models that are trained across sets of time series have shown a huge potential in providing accurate forecasts compared with the traditional univariate forecasting models that work on isolated series. However, there are currently no comprehensive time series archives for forecasting that contain datasets of time series from similar sources available for the research community to evaluate the performance of new global forecasting algorithms over a wide variety of datasets. In this paper, we present such a comprehensive time series forecasting archive containing 20 publicly available time series datasets from varied domains, with different characteristics in terms of frequency, series lengths, and inclusion of missing values. We also characterise the datasets, and identify similarities and differences among them, by conducting a feature analysis. Furthermore, we present the performance of a set of standard baseline forecasting methods over all datasets across eight error metrics, for the benefit of researchers using the archive to benchmark their forecasting algorithms.

We prove an inverse approximation theorem for the approximation of nonlinear sequence-to-sequence relationships using recurrent neural networks (RNNs). This is a so-called Bernstein-type result in approximation theory, which deduces properties of a target function under the assumption that it can be effectively approximated by a hypothesis space. In particular, we show that nonlinear sequence relationships that can be stably approximated by nonlinear RNNs must have an exponential decaying memory structure - a notion that can be made precise. This extends the previously identified curse of memory in linear RNNs into the general nonlinear setting, and quantifies the essential limitations of the RNN architecture for learning sequential relationships with long-term memory. Based on the analysis, we propose a principled reparameterization method to overcome the limitations. Our theoretical results are confirmed by numerical experiments. The code has been released in https://github.com/radarFudan/Curse-of-memory

Recent research on time series foundation models has primarily focused on forecasting, leaving it unclear how generalizable their learned representations are. In this study, we examine whether frozen pre-trained forecasting models can provide effective representations for classification. To this end, we compare different representation extraction strategies and introduce two model-agnostic embedding augmentations. Our experiments show that the best forecasting models achieve classification accuracy that matches or even surpasses that of state-of-the-art models pre-trained specifically for classification. Moreover, we observe a positive correlation between forecasting and classification performance. These findings challenge the assumption that task-specific pre-training is necessary, and suggest that learning to forecast may provide a powerful route toward constructing general-purpose time series foundation models.

Determinantal point processes (DPPs) are a useful probabilistic model for selecting a small diverse subset out of a large collection of items, with applications in summarization, stochastic optimization, active learning and more. Given a kernel function and a subset size k, our goal is to sample k out of n items with probability proportional to the determinant of the kernel matrix induced by the subset (a.k.a. k-DPP). Existing k-DPP sampling algorithms require an expensive preprocessing step which involves multiple passes over all n items, making it infeasible for large datasets. A naïve heuristic addressing this problem is to uniformly subsample a fraction of the data and perform k-DPP sampling only on those items, however this method offers no guarantee that the produced sample will even approximately resemble the target distribution over the original dataset. In this paper, we develop an algorithm which adaptively builds a sufficiently large uniform sample of data that is then used to efficiently generate a smaller set of k items, while ensuring that this set is drawn exactly from the target distribution defined on all n items. We show empirically that our algorithm produces a k-DPP sample after observing only a small fraction of all elements, leading to several orders of magnitude faster performance compared to the state-of-the-art.

Tabular data (or tables) are the most widely used data format in machine learning (ML). However, ML models often assume the table structure keeps fixed in training and testing. Before ML modeling, heavy data cleaning is required to merge disparate tables with different columns. This preprocessing often incurs significant data waste (e.g., removing unmatched columns and samples). How to learn ML models from multiple tables with partially overlapping columns? How to incrementally update ML models as more columns become available over time? Can we leverage model pretraining on multiple distinct tables? How to train an ML model which can predict on an unseen table? To answer all those questions, we propose to relax fixed table structures by introducing a Transferable Tabular Transformer (TransTab) for tables. The goal of TransTab is to convert each sample (a row in the table) to a generalizable embedding vector, and then apply stacked transformers for feature encoding. One methodology insight is combining column description and table cells as the raw input to a gated transformer model. The other insight is to introduce supervised and self-supervised pretraining to improve model performance. We compare TransTab with multiple baseline methods on diverse benchmark datasets and five oncology clinical trial datasets. Overall, TransTab ranks 1.00, 1.00, 1.78 out of 12 methods in supervised learning, feature incremental learning, and transfer learning scenarios, respectively; and the proposed pretraining leads to 2.3% AUC lift on average over the supervised learning.

Language models have demonstrated remarkable performance in solving reasoning tasks; however, even the strongest models still occasionally make reasoning mistakes. Recently, there has been active research aimed at improving reasoning accuracy, particularly by using pretrained language models to "self-correct" their mistakes via multi-round prompting. In this paper, we follow this line of work but focus on understanding the usefulness of incorporating "error-correction" data directly into the pretraining stage. This data consists of erroneous solution steps immediately followed by their corrections. Using a synthetic math dataset, we show promising results: this type of pretrain data can help language models achieve higher reasoning accuracy directly (i.e., through simple auto-regression, without multi-round prompting) compared to pretraining on the same amount of error-free data. We also delve into many details, such as (1) how this approach differs from beam search, (2) how such data can be prepared, (3) whether masking is needed on the erroneous tokens, (4) the amount of error required, (5) whether such data can be deferred to the fine-tuning stage, and many others.

Solving Bayesian inverse problems efficiently remains a significant challenge due to the complexity of posterior distributions and the computational cost of traditional sampling methods. Given a series of observations and the forward model, we want to recover the distribution of the parameters, conditioned on observed experimental data. We show, that combining Conditional Flow Mathching (CFM) with transformer-based architecture, we can efficiently sample from such kind of distribution, conditioned on variable number of observations.

We introduce Reprompting, an iterative sampling algorithm that searches for the Chain-of-Thought (CoT) recipes for a given task without human intervention. Through Gibbs sampling, we infer CoT recipes that work consistently well for a set of training samples. Our method iteratively samples new recipes using previously sampled solutions as parent prompts to solve other training problems. On five Big-Bench Hard tasks that require multi-step reasoning, Reprompting achieves consistently better performance than the zero-shot, few-shot, and human-written CoT baselines. Reprompting can also facilitate transfer of knowledge from a stronger model to a weaker model leading to substantially improved performance of the weaker model. Overall, Reprompting brings up to +17 point improvements over the previous state-of-the-art method that uses human-written CoT prompts.

Spatiotemporal forecasting techniques are significant for various domains such as transportation, energy, and weather. Accurate prediction of spatiotemporal series remains challenging due to the complex spatiotemporal heterogeneity. In particular, current end-to-end models are limited by input length and thus often fall into spatiotemporal mirage, i.e., similar input time series followed by dissimilar future values and vice versa. To address these problems, we propose a novel self-supervised pre-training framework Spatial-Temporal-Decoupled Masked Pre-training (STD-MAE) that employs two decoupled masked autoencoders to reconstruct spatiotemporal series along the spatial and temporal dimensions. Rich-context representations learned through such reconstruction could be seamlessly integrated by downstream predictors with arbitrary architectures to augment their performances. A series of quantitative and qualitative evaluations on six widely used benchmarks (PEMS03, PEMS04, PEMS07, PEMS08, METR-LA, and PEMS-BAY) are conducted to validate the state-of-the-art performance of STD-MAE. Codes are available at https://github.com/Jimmy-7664/STD-MAE.

Despite the remarkable success achieved by neural networks, particularly those represented by MLP and Transformer, we reveal that they exhibit potential flaws in the modeling and reasoning of periodicity, i.e., they tend to memorize the periodic data rather than genuinely understanding the underlying principles of periodicity. However, periodicity is a crucial trait in various forms of reasoning and generalization, underpinning predictability across natural and engineered systems through recurring patterns in observations. In this paper, we propose FAN, a novel network architecture based on Fourier Analysis, which empowers the ability to efficiently model and reason about periodic phenomena. By introducing Fourier Series, the periodicity is naturally integrated into the structure and computational processes of the neural network, thus achieving a more accurate expression and prediction of periodic patterns. As a promising substitute to multi-layer perceptron (MLP), FAN can seamlessly replace MLP in various models with fewer parameters and FLOPs. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate the effectiveness of FAN in modeling and reasoning about periodic functions, and the superiority and generalizability of FAN across a range of real-world tasks, including symbolic formula representation, time series forecasting, and language modeling.

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have recently achieved state-of-the-art performance in univariate forecasting on new time series simply by conditioned on a brief history of past values. Their success demonstrates that large-scale pretraining across diverse domains can acquire the inductive bias to generalize from temporal patterns in a brief history. However, most TSFMs are unable to leverage covariates -- future-available exogenous variables critical for accurate forecasting in many applications -- due to their domain-specific nature and the lack of associated inductive bias. We propose TFMAdapter, a lightweight, instance-level adapter that augments TSFMs with covariate information without fine-tuning. Instead of retraining, TFMAdapter operates on the limited history provided during a single model call, learning a non-parametric cascade that combines covariates with univariate TSFM forecasts. However, such learning would require univariate forecasts at all steps in the history, requiring too many calls to the TSFM. To enable training on the full historical context while limiting TSFM invocations, TFMAdapter uses a two-stage method: (1) generating pseudo-forecasts with a simple regression model, and (2) training a Gaussian Process regressor to refine predictions using both pseudo- and TSFM forecasts alongside covariates. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that TFMAdapter consistently outperforms both foundation models and supervised baselines, achieving a 24-27\% improvement over base foundation models with minimal data and computational overhead. Our results highlight the potential of lightweight adapters to bridge the gap between generic foundation models and domain-specific forecasting needs.

In time series forecasting, effectively disentangling intricate temporal patterns is crucial. While recent works endeavor to combine decomposition techniques with deep learning, multiple frequencies may still be mixed in the decomposed components, e.g., trend and seasonal. Furthermore, frequency domain analysis methods, e.g., Fourier and wavelet transforms, have limitations in resolution in the time domain and adaptability. In this paper, we propose D-PAD, a deep-shallow multi-frequency patterns disentangling neural network for time series forecasting. Specifically, a multi-component decomposing (MCD) block is introduced to decompose the series into components with different frequency ranges, corresponding to the "shallow" aspect. A decomposition-reconstruction-decomposition (D-R-D) module is proposed to progressively extract the information of frequencies mixed in the components, corresponding to the "deep" aspect. After that, an interaction and fusion (IF) module is used to further analyze the components. Extensive experiments on seven real-world datasets demonstrate that D-PAD achieves the state-of-the-art performance, outperforming the best baseline by an average of 9.48% and 7.15% in MSE and MAE, respectively.

Regression, the task of predicting a continuous scalar target y based on some features x is one of the most fundamental tasks in machine learning and statistics. It has been observed and theoretically analyzed that the classical approach, meansquared error minimization, can lead to suboptimal results when training neural networks. In this work, we propose a new method to improve the training of these models on regression tasks, with continuous scalar targets. Our method is based on casting this task in a different fashion, using a target encoder, and a prediction decoder, inspired by approaches in classification and clustering. We showcase the performance of our method on a wide range of real-world datasets.

Multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF) endeavors to predict future observations given historical data, playing a crucial role in time series data management systems. With advancements in large language models (LLMs), recent studies employ textual prompt tuning to infuse the knowledge of LLMs into MTSF. However, the deployment of LLMs often suffers from low efficiency during the inference phase. To address this problem, we introduce TimeKD, an efficient MTSF framework that leverages the calibrated language models and privileged knowledge distillation. TimeKD aims to generate high-quality future representations from the proposed cross-modality teacher model and cultivate an effective student model. The cross-modality teacher model adopts calibrated language models (CLMs) with ground truth prompts, motivated by the paradigm of Learning Under Privileged Information (LUPI). In addition, we design a subtractive cross attention (SCA) mechanism to refine these representations. To cultivate an effective student model, we propose an innovative privileged knowledge distillation (PKD) mechanism including correlation and feature distillation. PKD enables the student to replicate the teacher's behavior while minimizing their output discrepancy. Extensive experiments on real data offer insight into the effectiveness, efficiency, and scalability of the proposed TimeKD.

Autoregressive models, such as the GPT family, use a fixed order, usually left-to-right, to generate sequences. However, this is not a necessity. In this paper, we challenge this assumption and show that by simply adding a positional encoding for the output, this order can be modulated on-the-fly per-sample which offers key advantageous properties. It allows for the sampling of and conditioning on arbitrary subsets of tokens, and it also allows sampling in one shot multiple tokens dynamically according to a rejection strategy, leading to a sub-linear number of model evaluations. We evaluate our method across various domains, including language modeling, path-solving, and aircraft vertical rate prediction, decreasing the number of steps required for generation by an order of magnitude.

This study assesses deep learning models for audio classification in a clinical setting with the constraint of small datasets reflecting real-world prospective data collection. We analyze CNNs, including DenseNet and ConvNeXt, alongside transformer models like ViT, SWIN, and AST, and compare them against pre-trained audio models such as YAMNet and VGGish. Our method highlights the benefits of pre-training on large datasets before fine-tuning on specific clinical data. We prospectively collected two first-of-their-kind patient audio datasets from stroke patients. We investigated various preprocessing techniques, finding that RGB and grayscale spectrogram transformations affect model performance differently based on the priors they learn from pre-training. Our findings indicate CNNs can match or exceed transformer models in small dataset contexts, with DenseNet-Contrastive and AST models showing notable performance. This study highlights the significance of incremental marginal gains through model selection, pre-training, and preprocessing in sound classification; this offers valuable insights for clinical diagnostics that rely on audio classification.

In this paper, we introduce FITS, a lightweight yet powerful model for time series analysis. Unlike existing models that directly process raw time-domain data, FITS operates on the principle that time series can be manipulated through interpolation in the complex frequency domain. By discarding high-frequency components with negligible impact on time series data, FITS achieves performance comparable to state-of-the-art models for time series forecasting and anomaly detection tasks, while having a remarkably compact size of only approximately 10k parameters. Such a lightweight model can be easily trained and deployed in edge devices, creating opportunities for various applications. The code is available in: https://github.com/VEWOXIC/FITS