Daily Papers

Recent world-action models (WAMs) show that co-training policies with future prediction can provide physical priors for action generation. Building on the future-prediction ability of video models, many WAMs generate future videos and recover actions with inverse-dynamics models, or use these predicted videos as goal conditions for action generation. In both cases, the world model is trained mostly on successful demonstrations and has little reason to predict the consequences of bad actions. We introduce FACT, a causal World-Action Model that predicts future video and task progress conditioned on the executed action. This action-conditioned interface allows failure rollouts to supervise action consequences, turning bad actions into valid future targets rather than being discarded. Failure-aware training makes the progress predictor aware of both successful and failed action outcomes, which can optionally be used to score sampled action candidates at inference. Extensive experiments on simulation and real-world bimanual manipulation tasks show that FACT outperforms many existing baselines, improves as failure data are incorporated into training, and reduces success-biased future hallucination under bad actions. See more details at https://fact-wam.github.io/

Imitation learning advances robot capabilities by enabling the acquisition of diverse behaviors from human demonstrations. However, large-scale datasets used for policy training often introduce substantial variability in quality, which can negatively impact performance. As a result, automatically curating datasets by filtering low-quality samples to improve quality becomes essential. Existing robotic curation approaches rely on costly manual annotations and perform curation at a coarse granularity, such as the dataset or trajectory level, failing to account for the quality of individual state-action pairs. To address this, we introduce SCIZOR, a self-supervised data curation framework that filters out low-quality state-action pairs to improve the performance of imitation learning policies. SCIZOR targets two complementary sources of low-quality data: suboptimal data, which hinders learning with undesirable actions, and redundant data, which dilutes training with repetitive patterns. SCIZOR leverages a self-supervised task progress predictor for suboptimal data to remove samples lacking task progression, and a deduplication module operating on joint state-action representation for samples with redundant patterns. Empirically, we show that SCIZOR enables imitation learning policies to achieve higher performance with less data, yielding an average improvement of 15.4% across multiple benchmarks. More information is available at: https://ut-austin-rpl.github.io/SCIZOR/

Machine-learning surrogate models have shown promise in accelerating aerodynamic design, yet progress toward generalizable predictors for three-dimensional wings has been limited by the scarcity and restricted diversity of existing datasets. Here, we present SuperWing, a comprehensive open dataset of transonic swept-wing aerodynamics comprising 4,239 parameterized wing geometries and 28,856 Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes flow field solutions. The wing shapes in the dataset are generated using a simplified yet expressive geometry parameterization that incorporates spanwise variations in airfoil shape, twist, and dihedral, allowing for an enhanced diversity without relying on perturbations of a baseline wing. All shapes are simulated under a broad range of Mach numbers and angles of attack covering the typical flight envelope. To demonstrate the dataset's utility, we benchmark two state-of-the-art Transformers that accurately predict surface flow and achieve a 2.5 drag-count error on held-out samples. Models pretrained on SuperWing further exhibit strong zero-shot generalization to complex benchmark wings such as DLR-F6 and NASA CRM, underscoring the dataset's diversity and potential for practical usage.

Truly proactive AI systems must anticipate what we will do next. This foresight demands far richer information than the sparse signals we type into our prompts -- it demands reasoning over the entire context of what we see and do. We formalize this as next action prediction (NAP): given a sequence of a user's multimodal interactions with a computer (screenshots, clicks, sensor data), predict that user's next action. Progress on this task requires both new data and modeling approaches. To scale data, we annotate longitudinal, naturalistic computer use with vision-language models. We release an open-source pipeline for performing this labeling on private infrastructure, and label over 360K actions across one month of continuous phone usage from 20 users, amounting to 1,800 hours of screen time. We then introduce LongNAP, a user model that combines parametric and in-context learning to reason over long interaction histories. LongNAP is trained via policy gradient methods to generate user-specific reasoning traces given some context; retrieve relevant traces from a library of past traces; and then apply retrieved traces in-context to predict future actions. Using an LLM-as-judge evaluation metric (0-1 similarity to ground truth), LongNAP significantly outperforms supervised finetuning and prompted baselines on held-out data (by 79% and 39% respectively). Additionally, LongNAP generalizes to held out users when trained across individuals. The space of next actions a user might take at any moment is unbounded, spanning thousands of possible outcomes. Despite this, 17.1% of LongNAP's predicted trajectories are well-aligned with what a user does next (LLM-judge score geq 0.5). This rises to 26% when we filter to highly confident predictions. In sum, we argue that learning from the full context of user behavior to anticipate user needs is now a viable task with substantial opportunity.

Diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) have demonstrated a very promising ability in high-resolution image synthesis. However, sampling from a pre-trained DPM usually requires hundreds of model evaluations, which is computationally expensive. Despite recent progress in designing high-order solvers for DPMs, there still exists room for further speedup, especially in extremely few steps (e.g., 5~10 steps). Inspired by the predictor-corrector for ODE solvers, we develop a unified corrector (UniC) that can be applied after any existing DPM sampler to increase the order of accuracy without extra model evaluations, and derive a unified predictor (UniP) that supports arbitrary order as a byproduct. Combining UniP and UniC, we propose a unified predictor-corrector framework called UniPC for the fast sampling of DPMs, which has a unified analytical form for any order and can significantly improve the sampling quality over previous methods. We evaluate our methods through extensive experiments including both unconditional and conditional sampling using pixel-space and latent-space DPMs. Our UniPC can achieve 3.87 FID on CIFAR10 (unconditional) and 7.51 FID on ImageNet 256times256 (conditional) with only 10 function evaluations. Code is available at https://github.com/wl-zhao/UniPC

Evaluating image-text alignment while reflecting human preferences across multiple aspects is a significant issue for the development of reliable vision-language applications. It becomes especially crucial in real-world scenarios where multiple valid descriptions exist depending on contexts or user needs. However, research progress is hindered by the lack of comprehensive benchmarks and existing evaluation predictors lacking at least one of these key properties: (1) Alignment with human judgments, (2) Long-sequence processing, (3) Inference efficiency, and (4) Applicability to multi-objective scoring. To address these challenges, we propose a plug-and-play architecture to build a robust predictor, MULTI-TAP (Multi-Objective Task-Aware Predictor), capable of both multi and single-objective scoring. MULTI-TAP can produce a single overall score, utilizing a reward head built on top of a large vision-language model (LVLMs). We show that MULTI-TAP is robust in terms of application to different LVLM architectures, achieving significantly higher performance than existing metrics and even on par with the GPT-4o-based predictor, G-VEval, with a smaller size (7-8B). By training a lightweight ridge regression layer on the frozen hidden states of a pre-trained LVLM, MULTI-TAP can produce fine-grained scores for multiple human-interpretable objectives. MULTI-TAP performs better than VisionREWARD, a high-performing multi-objective reward model, in both performance and efficiency on multi-objective benchmarks and our newly released text-image-to-text dataset, EYE4ALL. Our new dataset, consisting of chosen/rejected human preferences (EYE4ALLPref) and human-annotated fine-grained scores across seven dimensions (EYE4ALLMulti), can serve as a foundation for developing more accessible AI systems by capturing the underlying preferences of users, including blind and low-vision (BLV) individuals.

Accurate prediction of object trajectories during manipulation is essential for closing the perception-action loop. Progress is limited on two fronts: available datasets lack fine-grained language-to-motion annotations, and existing predictors either rely on privileged inputs such as video, depth, or CAD models, or recover motion from fully generated videos through costly, error-prone perception pipelines. We close the supervision gap with the MOVE dataset, 5,038 object-centric egocentric trajectories, each paired with a fine-grained natural-language instruction rather than a coarse verb-noun label. We further propose DreamTraj, which predicts a 6-DoF object trajectory from a single RGB image and a task instruction, requiring no video, depth, or CAD model at inference: rather than generating a video, it reads motion from the internal representations of a frozen image-to-video diffusion model at an early denoising step. A lightweight flow-matching Reader decodes query-key attention tracks and pooled hidden states into relative 6-DoF poses. To our knowledge, this is the first approach to directly decode object 6-DoF trajectories from intermediate video diffusion representations rather than generated pixels. DreamTraj sets a new state of the art on both translation and rotation against forecasters that consume multi-frame or privileged inputs, and runs 4.6x faster than generate-then-extract pipelines.

How to accurately predict a high-fidelity future world? While the visual world is inherently continuous, existing deterministic video prediction models operate in discrete pixel space and are mainly optimized with pixel-wise mean squared error (MSE), which often leads to over-smoothed predictions and a lack of fine-grained visual details. To address these limitations, we propose Predictive Differentiable Rendering (PDR), a novel end-to-end video prediction paradigm that bridges the gap between discrete and continuous representations. Inspired by recent progress in 3D reconstruction with 3D Gaussian Splatting, we introduce PredGS, a lightweight and plug-and-play adapter based on 2D Gaussian representation, which could be seamlessly integrated with existing pixel space predictors, significantly improving spatial detail preservation with negligible computational overhead. Furthermore, we develop predgsplat, a CUDA-accelerated differentiable 2D Gaussian renderer supporting arbitrary channels. Each Gaussian is defined by 5 + C learnable parameters (position, scale, rotation, and C channel amplitudes) and achieves up to 10x faster rendering than the baseline. Optimized by a combined L1 and SSIM loss, PDR overcomes the inherent blurring tendencies of MSE Loss, significantly enhancing the prediction performance. Extensive experiments on diverse real-world benchmarks, including TaxiBJ, WeatherBench, KTH, and Human3.6M, demonstrate that PDR consistently surpasses existing methods, delivering superior detail preservation, visual fidelity, and predictive accuracy.

Test-time scaling has become a dominant paradigm for improving LLM agent reliability, yet current approaches treat compute as an abundant resource, allowing agents to exhaust token and tool budgets on redundant steps or dead-end trajectories. Existing budget-aware methods either require expensive fine-tuning or rely on coarse, trajectory-level heuristics that cannot intervene mid-execution. We propose the Budget-Aware Value Tree (BAVT), a training-free inference-time framework that models multi-hop reasoning as a dynamic search tree guided by step-level value estimation within a single LLM backbone. Another key innovation is a budget-conditioned node selection mechanism that uses the remaining resource ratio as a natural scaling exponent over node values, providing a principled, parameter-free transition from broad exploration to greedy exploitation as the budget depletes. To combat the well-known overconfidence of LLM self-evaluation, BAVT employs a residual value predictor that scores relative progress rather than absolute state quality, enabling reliable pruning of uninformative or redundant tool calls. We further provide a theoretical convergence guarantee, proving that BAVT reaches a terminal answer with probability at least 1-ε under an explicit finite budget bound. Extensive evaluations on four multi-hop QA benchmarks across two model families demonstrate that BAVT consistently outperforms parallel sampling baselines. Most notably, BAVT under strict low-budget constraints surpasses baseline performance at 4times the resource allocation, establishing that intelligent budget management fundamentally outperforms brute-force compute scaling.

We propose the zero-shot Vision-and-Language Navigation with Collision Mitigation (VLN-CM), which takes these considerations. VLN-CM is composed of four modules and predicts the direction and distance of the next movement at each step. We utilize large foundation models for each modules. To select the direction, we use the Attention Spot Predictor (ASP), View Selector (VS), and Progress Monitor (PM). The ASP employs a Large Language Model (e.g. ChatGPT) to split navigation instructions into attention spots, which are objects or scenes at the location to move to (e.g. a yellow door). The VS selects from panorama images provided at 30-degree intervals the one that includes the attention spot, using CLIP similarity. We then choose the angle of the selected image as the direction to move in. The PM uses a rule-based approach to decide which attention spot to focus on next, among multiple spots derived from the instructions. If the similarity between the current attention spot and the visual observations decreases consecutively at each step, the PM determines that the agent has passed the current spot and moves on to the next one. For selecting the distance to move, we employed the Open Map Predictor (OMP). The OMP uses panorama depth information to predict an occupancy mask. We then selected a collision-free distance in the predicted direction based on the occupancy mask. We evaluated our method using the validation data of VLN-CE. Our approach showed better performance than several baseline methods, and the OPM was effective in mitigating collisions for the agent.

Diffusion models have emerged as a promising approach for text generation, with recent works falling into two main categories: discrete and continuous diffusion models. Discrete diffusion models apply token corruption independently using categorical distributions, allowing for different diffusion progress across tokens but lacking fine-grained control. Continuous diffusion models map tokens to continuous spaces and apply fine-grained noise, but the diffusion progress is uniform across tokens, limiting their ability to capture semantic nuances. To address these limitations, we propose \underline{N}on-simultan\underline{e}ous C\underline{o}ntinuous \underline{Diff}usion Models (NeoDiff), a novel diffusion model that integrates the strengths of both discrete and continuous approaches. NeoDiff introduces a Poisson diffusion process for the forward process, enabling a flexible and fine-grained noising paradigm, and employs a time predictor for the reverse process to adaptively modulate the denoising progress based on token semantics. Furthermore, NeoDiff utilizes an optimized schedule for inference to ensure more precise noise control and improved performance. Our approach unifies the theories of discrete and continuous diffusion models, offering a more principled and effective framework for text generation. Experimental results on several text generation tasks demonstrate NeoDiff's superior performance compared to baselines of non-autoregressive continuous and discrete diffusion models, iterative-based methods and autoregressive diffusion-based methods. These results highlight NeoDiff's potential as a powerful tool for generating high-quality text and advancing the field of diffusion-based text generation.

LLM-based (Large Language Model) GUI (Graphical User Interface) agents can potentially reshape our daily lives significantly. However, current LLM-based GUI agents suffer from the scarcity of high-quality training data owing to the difficulties of trajectory collection and reward annotation. Existing works have been exploring LLMs to collect trajectories for imitation learning or to offer reward signals for online RL training. However, the Outcome Reward Model (ORM) used in existing works cannot provide finegrained feedback and can over-penalize the valuable steps in finally failed trajectories. To this end, we propose Progress Reward Model (ProgRM) to provide dense informative intermediate rewards by predicting a task completion progress for each step in online training. To handle the challenge of progress reward label annotation, we further design an efficient LCS-based (Longest Common Subsequence) self-annotation algorithm to discover the key steps in trajectories and assign progress labels accordingly. ProgRM is evaluated with extensive experiments and analyses. Actors trained with ProgRM outperform leading proprietary LLMs and ORM-trained actors, illustrating the effectiveness of ProgRM. The codes for experiments will be made publicly available upon acceptance.

Robotic learning takes place in dynamic environments with large behavior spaces. A terminal success signal only tells the robot whether the task is completed. It does not explain whether the current behavior is making progress, remaining unchanged, or undoing earlier progress. For this reason, recent studies have increasingly explored progress rewards that provide feedback during task execution. However, the current literature lacks a shared framework. Existing methods use different observations, goal specifications, output signals, supervision sources, and evaluation protocols. This makes it difficult to compare them and understand what their results actually validate. In this survey, we provide a unified view of progress reward modeling for robotic learning. We organize the field in three connected steps. We first study the interface of a progress model. This defines the problem from the outside by asking what information the model receives and what form of progress signal it produces. We then move inside the model and study the methods used to construct this signal. This reveals the different assumptions and mechanisms behind progress estimation and reward generation. Finally, we examine the data and benchmarks that support these methods. This shows how progress supervision is obtained and what different evaluations actually measure. Together, these three perspectives connect what a progress model is, how it is built, and how its quality is validated. We further summarize the main limitations of current approaches and discuss future research directions.

Most existing vision-language-action (VLA) models for robotic manipulation lack progress awareness, typically relying on hand-crafted heuristics for task termination. This limitation is particularly severe in long-horizon tasks involving cascaded sub-goals. In this work, we investigate the estimation and integration of task progress, proposing a novel model named {\textbf \vla}. Our technical contributions are twofold: (1) robust progress estimation: We pre-train a progress estimator on large-scale, unsupervised video-text robotic datasets. This estimator achieves a low prediction residual (0.07 on a scale of [0, 1]) in simulation and demonstrates zero-shot generalization to unseen real-world samples, and (2) differentiable progress guidance: We introduce an inverse dynamics world model that maps predicted action tokens into future latent visual states. These latents are then processed by the progress estimator; by applying a maximal progress regularization, we establish a differentiable pipeline that provides progress-piloted guidance to refine action tokens. Extensive experiments on the CALVIN and LIBERO benchmarks, alongside real-world robot deployment, consistently demonstrate substantial improvements in success rates and generalization over strong baselines.

Predictive process monitoring is a process mining task aimed at forecasting information about a running process trace, such as the most correct next activity to be executed. In medical domains, predictive process monitoring can provide valuable decision support in atypical and nontrivial situations. Decision support and quality assessment in medicine cannot ignore domain knowledge, in order to be grounded on all the available information (which is not limited to data) and to be really acceptable by end users. In this paper, we propose a predictive process monitoring approach relying on the use of a {\em transformer}, a deep learning architecture based on the attention mechanism. A major contribution of our work lies in the incorporation of ontological domain-specific knowledge, carried out through a graph positional encoding technique. The paper presents and discusses the encouraging experimental result we are collecting in the domain of stroke management.

A significant body of recent research in the field of Learning Analytics has focused on leveraging machine learning approaches for predicting at-risk students in order to initiate timely interventions and thereby elevate retention and completion rates. The overarching feature of the majority of these research studies has been on the science of prediction only. The component of predictive analytics concerned with interpreting the internals of the models and explaining their predictions for individual cases to stakeholders has largely been neglected. Additionally, works that attempt to employ data-driven prescriptive analytics to automatically generate evidence-based remedial advice for at-risk learners are in their infancy. eXplainable AI is a field that has recently emerged providing cutting-edge tools which support transparent predictive analytics and techniques for generating tailored advice for at-risk students. This study proposes a novel framework that unifies both transparent machine learning as well as techniques for enabling prescriptive analytics, while integrating the latest advances in large language models. This work practically demonstrates the proposed framework using predictive models for identifying at-risk learners of programme non-completion. The study then further demonstrates how predictive modelling can be augmented with prescriptive analytics on two case studies in order to generate human-readable prescriptive feedback for those who are at risk using ChatGPT.

Estimating task progress requires reasoning over long-horizon dynamics rather than recognizing static visual content. While modern Vision-Language Models (VLMs) excel at describing what is visible, it remains unclear whether they can infer how far a task has progressed from partial observations. To this end, we introduce Progress-Bench, a benchmark for systematically evaluating progress reasoning in VLMs. Beyond benchmarking, we further explore a human-inspired two-stage progress reasoning paradigm through both training-free prompting and training-based approach based on curated dataset ProgressLM-45K. Experiments on 14 VLMs show that most models are not yet ready for task progress estimation, exhibiting sensitivity to demonstration modality and viewpoint changes, as well as poor handling of unanswerable cases. While training-free prompting that enforces structured progress reasoning yields limited and model-dependent gains, the training-based ProgressLM-3B achieves consistent improvements even at a small model scale, despite being trained on a task set fully disjoint from the evaluation tasks. Further analyses reveal characteristic error patterns and clarify when and why progress reasoning succeeds or fails.

We present a scalable pipeline for automatically generating high-quality training data for web agents. In particular, a major challenge in identifying high-quality training instances is trajectory evaluation - quantifying how much progress was made towards task completion. We introduce a novel constraint-based evaluation framework that provides fine-grained assessment of progress towards task completion. This enables us to leverage partially successful trajectories, which significantly expands the amount of usable training data. We evaluate our method on a new benchmark we propose called BookingArena, which consists of complex booking tasks across 20 popular websites, and demonstrate that our distilled student model outperforms open-source approaches and matches or exceeds commercial systems, while being a significantly smaller model. Our work addresses the challenge of efficiently creating diverse, realistic web interaction datasets and provides a systematic evaluation methodology for complex structured web tasks.

Long-horizon robotic manipulation requires dense feedback that reflects how a task advances through its procedural stages, not merely whether the final outcome is successful. Existing reward models often rely on trajectory-level success labels or time-based interpolation, which can conflate elapsed time with true task progress and therefore fail to capture unfinished steps, stagnation, and failure states. We present ProcVLM, a progress-aware vision-language model that learns procedure-grounded progress as a dense reward signal for manipulation. Rather than deriving progress from terminal outcomes or temporal proxies, ProcVLM grounds progress estimation in procedural structure and intra-stage visual change, and further adopts a reasoning-before-estimation paradigm that infers the remaining atomic actions before estimating task progress. Specifically, we construct this supervision by synthesizing frame-level subtask-semantic annotations, assigning progress budgets according to subtask structure, and distributing each budget based on intra-subtask visual change. To train ProcVLM at scale, we build a standardized procedural supervision synthesis pipeline and construct ProcCorpus-60M from 30 embodied datasets with 60M annotated frames, from which we derive ProcVQA for procedure-aware pretraining, with progress estimation as the central task alongside action segmentation and future planning. Experiments on ProcVQA and reward-model benchmarks show that ProcVLM improves embodied procedural reasoning and yields more discriminative trajectory-internal progress estimates than representative baselines, supporting its use as a dense reward model for downstream reward-guided policy optimization. Project page: https://procvlm.github.io/

Vision-Language Navigation requires agents to act coherently over long horizons by understanding not only local visual context but also how far they have advanced within a multi-step instruction. However, recent Vision-Language-Action models focus on direct action prediction and earlier progress methods predict numeric achievements; both overlook the monotonic co-progression property of the observation and instruction sequences. Building on this insight, Progress-Think introduces semantic progress reasoning, predicting instruction-style progress from visual observations to enable more accurate navigation. To achieve this without expensive annotations, we propose a three-stage framework. In the initial stage, Self-Aligned Progress Pretraining bootstraps a reasoning module via a novel differentiable alignment between visual history and instruction prefixes. Then, Progress-Guided Policy Pretraining injects learned progress states into the navigation context, guiding the policy toward consistent actions. Finally, Progress-Policy Co-Finetuning jointly optimizes both modules with tailored progress-aware reinforcement objectives. Experiments on R2R-CE and RxR-CE show state-of-the-art success and efficiency, demonstrating that semantic progress yields a more consistent representation of navigation advancement.

Time series forecasting always faces the challenge of concept drift, where data distributions evolve over time, leading to a decline in forecast model performance. Existing solutions are based on online learning, which continually organize recent time series observations as new training samples and update model parameters according to the forecasting feedback on recent data. However, they overlook a critical issue: obtaining ground-truth future values of each sample should be delayed until after the forecast horizon. This delay creates a temporal gap between the training samples and the test sample. Our empirical analysis reveals that the gap can introduce concept drift, causing forecast models to adapt to outdated concepts. In this paper, we present Proceed, a novel proactive model adaptation framework for online time series forecasting. Proceed first estimates the concept drift between the recently used training samples and the current test sample. It then employs an adaptation generator to efficiently translate the estimated drift into parameter adjustments, proactively adapting the model to the test sample. To enhance the generalization capability of the framework, Proceed is trained on synthetic diverse concept drifts. Extensive experiments on five real-world datasets across various forecast models demonstrate that Proceed brings more performance improvements than the state-of-the-art online learning methods, significantly facilitating forecast models' resilience against concept drifts. Code is available at https://github.com/SJTU-DMTai/OnlineTSF.

Accurate prediction of knee osteoarthritis (KOA) progression from structural MRI has a potential to enhance disease understanding and support clinical trials. Prior art focused on manually designed imaging biomarkers, which may not fully exploit all disease-related information present in MRI scan. In contrast, our method learns relevant representations from raw data end-to-end using Deep Learning, and uses them for progression prediction. The method employs a 2D CNN to process the data slice-wise and aggregate the extracted features using a Transformer. Evaluated on a large cohort (n=4,866), the proposed method outperforms conventional 2D and 3D CNN-based models and achieves average precision of 0.58pm0.03 and ROC AUC of 0.78pm0.01. This paper sets a baseline on end-to-end KOA progression prediction from structural MRI. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/MIPT-Oulu/OAProgressionMR.

Objective: We develop a deep learning framework based on the pre-trained Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) model using unstructured clinical notes from electronic health records (EHRs) to predict the risk of disease progression from Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's Disease (AD). Materials and Methods: We identified 3657 patients diagnosed with MCI together with their progress notes from Northwestern Medicine Enterprise Data Warehouse (NMEDW) between 2000-2020. The progress notes no later than the first MCI diagnosis were used for the prediction. We first preprocessed the notes by deidentification, cleaning and splitting, and then pretrained a BERT model for AD (AD-BERT) based on the publicly available Bio+Clinical BERT on the preprocessed notes. The embeddings of all the sections of a patient's notes processed by AD-BERT were combined by MaxPooling to compute the probability of MCI-to-AD progression. For replication, we conducted a similar set of experiments on 2563 MCI patients identified at Weill Cornell Medicine (WCM) during the same timeframe. Results: Compared with the 7 baseline models, the AD-BERT model achieved the best performance on both datasets, with Area Under receiver operating characteristic Curve (AUC) of 0.8170 and F1 score of 0.4178 on NMEDW dataset and AUC of 0.8830 and F1 score of 0.6836 on WCM dataset. Conclusion: We developed a deep learning framework using BERT models which provide an effective solution for prediction of MCI-to-AD progression using clinical note analysis.

Conformal predictors are set predictors that are automatically valid in the sense of having coverage probability equal to or exceeding a given confidence level. Inductive conformal predictors are a computationally efficient version of conformal predictors satisfying the same property of validity. However, inductive conformal predictors have been only known to control unconditional coverage probability. This paper explores various versions of conditional validity and various ways to achieve them using inductive conformal predictors and their modifications.

An algorithm to estimate the evolution of learning curves on the whole of a training data base, based on the results obtained from a portion and using a functional strategy, is introduced. We approximate iteratively the sought value at the desired time, independently of the learning technique used and once a point in the process, called prediction level, has been passed. The proposal proves to be formally correct with respect to our working hypotheses and includes a reliable proximity condition. This allows the user to fix a convergence threshold with respect to the accuracy finally achievable, which extends the concept of stopping criterion and seems to be effective even in the presence of distorting observations. Our aim is to evaluate the training effort, supporting decision making in order to reduce the need for both human and computational resources during the learning process. The proposal is of interest in at least three operational procedures. The first is the anticipation of accuracy gain, with the purpose of measuring how much work is needed to achieve a certain degree of performance. The second relates the comparison of efficiency between systems at training time, with the objective of completing this task only for the one that best suits our requirements. The prediction of accuracy is also a valuable item of information for customizing systems, since we can estimate in advance the impact of settings on both the performance and the development costs. Using the generation of part-of-speech taggers as an example application, the experimental results are consistent with our expectations.

Evaluating neural network performance is critical to deep neural network design but a costly procedure. Neural predictors provide an efficient solution by treating architectures as samples and learning to estimate their performance on a given task. However, existing predictors are task-dependent, predominantly estimating neural network performance on image classification benchmarks. They are also search-space dependent; each predictor is designed to make predictions for a specific architecture search space with predefined topologies and set of operations. In this paper, we propose a novel All-in-One Predictor (AIO-P), which aims to pretrain neural predictors on architecture examples from multiple, separate computer vision (CV) task domains and multiple architecture spaces, and then transfer to unseen downstream CV tasks or neural architectures. We describe our proposed techniques for general graph representation, efficient predictor pretraining and knowledge infusion techniques, as well as methods to transfer to downstream tasks/spaces. Extensive experimental results show that AIO-P can achieve Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Spearman's Rank Correlation (SRCC) below 1% and above 0.5, respectively, on a breadth of target downstream CV tasks with or without fine-tuning, outperforming a number of baselines. Moreover, AIO-P can directly transfer to new architectures not seen during training, accurately rank them and serve as an effective performance estimator when paired with an algorithm designed to preserve performance while reducing FLOPs.

In this paper, we tackle the important yet under-investigated problem of making long-horizon prediction of event sequences. Existing state-of-the-art models do not perform well at this task due to their autoregressive structure. We propose HYPRO, a hybridly normalized probabilistic model that naturally fits this task: its first part is an autoregressive base model that learns to propose predictions; its second part is an energy function that learns to reweight the proposals such that more realistic predictions end up with higher probabilities. We also propose efficient training and inference algorithms for this model. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed HYPRO model can significantly outperform previous models at making long-horizon predictions of future events. We also conduct a range of ablation studies to investigate the effectiveness of each component of our proposed methods.

Large Language Model (LLM) agents commonly condition actions on full action-observation histories, which introduce task-irrelevant information that easily leads to redundant actions and higher inference cost. We propose Progress-Aware Belief Update (PABU), a belief-state framework that compactly represents an agent's state by explicitly modeling task progress and selectively retaining past actions and observations. At each step, the agent predicts its relative progress since the previous round and decides whether the newly encountered interaction should be stored, conditioning future decisions only on the retained subset. Across eight environments in the AgentGym benchmark, and using identical training trajectories, PABU achieves an 81.0% task completion rate, outperforming previous State of the art (SoTA) models with full-history belief by 23.9%. Additionally, PABU's progress-oriented action selection improves efficiency, reducing the average number of interaction steps to 9.5, corresponding to a 26.9% reduction. Ablation studies show that both explicit progress prediction and selective retention are necessary for robust belief learning and performance gains.

LeWorldModel trains a latent world model with a prediction loss and a single anti-collapse regulariser, and reports approximately 87% of goals reached on TwoRoom, its simplest diagnostic environment. We reproduce that result by independent reimplementation on roughly $25 of rented compute, with all evaluation on one laptop CPU. We reach 94.0% at the repository's evaluation goal offset, against 84.0% for the authors' own released checkpoint measured under our protocol on identical episodes, and we reproduce the reported representation result directly (position probe Pearson r = 0.9988 against a reported 0.996). Reaching that point required four conventions that determine the outcome and appear in no released configuration file: dense action gathering across a frameskip block, a programmatically-set action-encoder width, ImageNet pixel normalisation, and action z-scoring. A reproducer following the released configurations alone obtains a model whose predictor cannot converge. The evaluation protocol is itself contested by the released material. The paper's appendix and the repository's configuration specify different goal offsets and step budgets; on the authors' own weights these yield 14.0% and 84.0%, and only the configuration's values reproduce the reported figure. On fifty identical episodes, changing nothing but how the goal is constructed moves that checkpoint from 84.0% to 8.0%. Two findings generalise. One-step prediction accuracy does not predict long-horizon planning success: across three checkpoints spanning a sevenfold range in prediction error, including the authors' own, it orders short-horizon success monotonically and fails to order long-horizon success at all. And a batch normalisation layer inflated our reported validation loss by up to a factor of 300, concealing a training loss that was flat throughout.

Daily progress notes are common types in the electronic health record (EHR) where healthcare providers document the patient's daily progress and treatment plans. The EHR is designed to document all the care provided to patients, but it also enables note bloat with extraneous information that distracts from the diagnoses and treatment plans. Applications of natural language processing (NLP) in the EHR is a growing field with the majority of methods in information extraction. Few tasks use NLP methods for downstream diagnostic decision support. We introduced the 2022 National NLP Clinical Challenge (N2C2) Track 3: Progress Note Understanding - Assessment and Plan Reasoning as one step towards a new suite of tasks. The Assessment and Plan Reasoning task focuses on the most critical components of progress notes, Assessment and Plan subsections where health problems and diagnoses are contained. The goal of the task was to develop and evaluate NLP systems that automatically predict causal relations between the overall status of the patient contained in the Assessment section and its relation to each component of the Plan section which contains the diagnoses and treatment plans. The goal of the task was to identify and prioritize diagnoses as the first steps in diagnostic decision support to find the most relevant information in long documents like daily progress notes. We present the results of 2022 n2c2 Track 3 and provide a description of the data, evaluation, participation and system performance.

In recent years, large language models have greatly improved in their ability to perform complex multi-step reasoning. However, even state-of-the-art models still regularly produce logical mistakes. To train more reliable models, we can turn either to outcome supervision, which provides feedback for a final result, or process supervision, which provides feedback for each intermediate reasoning step. Given the importance of training reliable models, and given the high cost of human feedback, it is important to carefully compare the both methods. Recent work has already begun this comparison, but many questions still remain. We conduct our own investigation, finding that process supervision significantly outperforms outcome supervision for training models to solve problems from the challenging MATH dataset. Our process-supervised model solves 78% of problems from a representative subset of the MATH test set. Additionally, we show that active learning significantly improves the efficacy of process supervision. To support related research, we also release PRM800K, the complete dataset of 800,000 step-level human feedback labels used to train our best reward model.

Transformer-based language models are highly effective for code completion, with much research dedicated to enhancing the content of these completions. Despite their effectiveness, these models come with high operational costs and can be intrusive, especially when they suggest too often and interrupt developers who are concentrating on their work. Current research largely overlooks how these models interact with developers in practice and neglects to address when a developer should receive completion suggestions. To tackle this issue, we developed a machine learning model that can accurately predict when to invoke a code completion tool given the code context and available telemetry data. To do so, we collect a dataset of 200k developer interactions with our cross-IDE code completion plugin and train several invocation filtering models. Our results indicate that our small-scale transformer model significantly outperforms the baseline while maintaining low enough latency. We further explore the search space for integrating additional telemetry data into a pre-trained transformer directly and obtain promising results. To further demonstrate our approach's practical potential, we deployed the model in an online environment with 34 developers and provided real-world insights based on 74k actual invocations.

Progress in large language models is constrained by an evaluation bottleneck: build a benchmark, evaluate models and settings, then iterate. We therefore ask a simple question: can we forecast outcomes before running any experiments? We study text-only performance forecasting: estimating a model's score from a redacted task description and intended configuration, with no access to dataset instances. To support systematic study, we curate PRECOG, a corpus of redacted description-performance pairs spanning diverse tasks, domains, and metrics. Experiments show the task is challenging but feasible: models equipped with a retrieval module that excludes source papers achieve moderate prediction performance with well-calibrated uncertainty, reaching mean absolute error as low as 8.7 on the Accuracy subset at high-confidence thresholds. Our analysis indicates that stronger reasoning models engage in diverse, iterative querying, whereas current open-source models lag and often skip retrieval or gather evidence with limited diversity. We further test a zero-leakage setting, forecasting on newly released datasets or experiments before their papers are indexed, where GPT-5 with built-in web search still attains nontrivial prediction accuracy. Overall, our corpus and analyses offer an initial step toward open-ended anticipatory evaluation, supporting difficulty estimation and smarter experiment prioritization.

Longitudinal clinical notes contain rich evidence of how patients evolve over time, but converting this signal into training supervision for clinical prediction remains challenging. We extend Foresight Learning to clinical prediction by converting time-ordered MIMIC-III notes into examples consisting of past patient context, a natural-language question about a possible future event, and a label resolved from later documentation. This process yields 6,900 prediction examples from 702 admissions across medications, procedures, organ support, microbiology, and mortality. A small LoRA adapter trained on these examples improves over the prompted base model, reducing expected calibration error from 0.1269 to 0.0398 and Brier score from 0.199 to 0.145, while slightly outperforming GPT-5 point estimates on held-out questions. The approach enables reusable clinical prediction supervision from longitudinal notes without hand-engineered structured features or endpoint-specific classifiers.

Understanding the progress of a task allows humans to not only track what has been done but also to better plan for future goals. We demonstrate TaKSIE, a novel framework that incorporates task progress knowledge into visual subgoal generation for robotic manipulation tasks. We jointly train a recurrent network with a latent diffusion model to generate the next visual subgoal based on the robot's current observation and the input language command. At execution time, the robot leverages a visual progress representation to monitor the task progress and adaptively samples the next visual subgoal from the model to guide the manipulation policy. We train and validate our model in simulated and real-world robotic tasks, achieving state-of-the-art performance on the CALVIN manipulation benchmark. We find that the inclusion of task progress knowledge can improve the robustness of trained policy for different initial robot poses or various movement speeds during demonstrations. The project website can be found at https://live-robotics-uva.github.io/TaKSIE/ .

Scientific progress depends on sequences of enabling contributions, yet existing AI4Science benchmarks largely focus on citation prediction, literature retrieval, or idea generation rather than the dependencies that make progress possible. In this paper, we introduce discovery pathway forecasting: given a target scientific contribution and the prior literature available at a specified time, the task is to (1) identify the enabling contributions required to realize it and (2) ground each in prior work when such prior work exists. We present SciPaths, a benchmark of 262 expert-annotated gold pathways and 2,444 silver pathways constructed from machine learning and natural language processing papers, where each pathway records enabling contributions, roles, rationales, and prior-work groundings or unmapped decisions. Evaluating frontier and open-weight language models, we find that the best model reaches only 0.189 F1 under strict semantic matching, with core methodological dependencies hardest to recover. Prior-work grounding improves substantially when gold enabling contributions are provided, showing that decomposition quality is a major bottleneck for end-to-end pathway recovery. SciPaths therefore shifts evaluation toward a missing capability in scientific forecasting: reasoning backward from a target contribution to the enabling scientific building blocks and prior-work dependencies that make it feasible.

Deep neural networks are often applied to medical images to automate the problem of medical diagnosis. However, a more clinically relevant question that practitioners usually face is how to predict the future trajectory of a disease. Current methods for prognosis or disease trajectory forecasting often require domain knowledge and are complicated to apply. In this paper, we formulate the prognosis prediction problem as a one-to-many prediction problem. Inspired by a clinical decision-making process with two agents -- a radiologist and a general practitioner -- we predict prognosis with two transformer-based components that share information with each other. The first transformer in this framework aims to analyze the imaging data, and the second one leverages its internal states as inputs, also fusing them with auxiliary clinical data. The temporal nature of the problem is modeled within the transformer states, allowing us to treat the forecasting problem as a multi-task classification, for which we propose a novel loss. We show the effectiveness of our approach in predicting the development of structural knee osteoarthritis changes and forecasting Alzheimer's disease clinical status directly from raw multi-modal data. The proposed method outperforms multiple state-of-the-art baselines with respect to performance and calibration, both of which are needed for real-world applications. An open-source implementation of our method is made publicly available at https://github.com/Oulu-IMEDS/CLIMATv2.

Predictive code completion greatly accelerates how quickly developers work. In spreadsheets, despite being much more common, such auto-completion features are virtually non-existent. To address this gap, we introduce a benchmark for systems that observe a sequence of user actions in a spreadsheet and predict future actions. Two challenges are (1) the absence of edit histories in public spreadsheet corpora and (2) the complex space of spreadsheet actions (spatial, temporal, composite). To address (1), we manually curate 52 sequences of 12K actions that recreate spreadsheets from public corpora, seeded by parametrized heuristics and LLM refinement. To address (2), we propose an online evaluation that expects a prediction after each user action, accepts or rejects that prediction, updates the future actions upon acceptance, and repeats this until the target spreadsheet is obtained. We use multiple baseline predictors (including zero-shot LLMs, fine-tuned SLMs, and classical models) and analyze different properties that our benchmark teaches us, including but not limited to: properties of saved actions and false positives, efficiency, effect of user profiles, effect of triggers, and effect of context.

Predicting the next activity of a running process is an important aspect of process management. Recently, artificial neural networks, so called deep-learning approaches, have been proposed to address this challenge. This demo paper describes a software application that applies the Tensorflow deep-learning framework to process prediction. The software application reads industry-standard XES files for training and presents the user with an easy-to-use graphical user interface for both training and prediction. The system provides several improvements over earlier work. This demo paper focuses on the software implementation and describes the architecture and user interface.

In this work, we propose an approach for collecting completion usage logs from the users in an IDE and using them to train a machine learning based model for ranking completion candidates. We developed a set of features that describe completion candidates and their context, and deployed their anonymized collection in the Early Access Program of IntelliJ-based IDEs. We used the logs to collect a dataset of code completions from users, and employed it to train a ranking CatBoost model. Then, we evaluated it in two settings: on a held-out set of the collected completions and in a separate A/B test on two different groups of users in the IDE. Our evaluation shows that using a simple ranking model trained on the past user behavior logs significantly improved code completion experience. Compared to the default heuristics-based ranking, our model demonstrated a decrease in the number of typing actions necessary to perform the completion in the IDE from 2.073 to 1.832. The approach adheres to privacy requirements and legal constraints, since it does not require collecting personal information, performing all the necessary anonymization on the client's side. Importantly, it can be improved continuously: implementing new features, collecting new data, and evaluating new models - this way, we have been using it in production since the end of 2020.

Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown that it is promising to utilize Process Reward Models (PRMs) as verifiers to enhance the performance of LLMs. However, current PRMs face three key challenges: (1) limited process supervision and generalization capabilities, (2) dependence on scalar value prediction without leveraging the generative abilities of LLMs, and (3) inability to scale the test-time compute of PRMs. In this work, we introduce GenPRM, a generative process reward model that performs explicit Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning with code verification before providing judgment for each reasoning step. To obtain high-quality process supervision labels and rationale data, we propose Relative Progress Estimation (RPE) and a rationale synthesis framework that incorporates code verification. Experimental results on ProcessBench and several mathematical reasoning tasks show that GenPRM significantly outperforms prior PRMs with only 23K training data from MATH dataset. Through test-time scaling, a 1.5B GenPRM outperforms GPT-4o, and a 7B GenPRM surpasses Qwen2.5-Math-PRM-72B on ProcessBench. Additionally, GenPRM demonstrates strong abilities to serve as a critic model for policy model refinement. This work establishes a new paradigm for process supervision that bridges the gap between PRMs and critic models in LLMs. Our code, model, and data will be available in https://ryanliu112.github.io/GenPRM.

Predictive business process monitoring methods exploit logs of completed cases of a process in order to make predictions about running cases thereof. Existing methods in this space are tailor-made for specific prediction tasks. Moreover, their relative accuracy is highly sensitive to the dataset at hand, thus requiring users to engage in trial-and-error and tuning when applying them in a specific setting. This paper investigates Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks as an approach to build consistently accurate models for a wide range of predictive process monitoring tasks. First, we show that LSTMs outperform existing techniques to predict the next event of a running case and its timestamp. Next, we show how to use models for predicting the next task in order to predict the full continuation of a running case. Finally, we apply the same approach to predict the remaining time, and show that this approach outperforms existing tailor-made methods.

Can AI systems trained on the scientific record up to a fixed point in time forecast the scientific advances that follow? Such a capability could help researchers identify collaborators and impactful research directions, and anticipate which problems and methods will become central next. We introduce PreScience -- a scientific forecasting benchmark that decomposes the research process into four interdependent generative tasks: collaborator prediction, prior work selection, contribution generation, and impact prediction. PreScience is a carefully curated dataset of 98K recent AI-related research papers, featuring disambiguated author identities, temporally aligned scholarly metadata, and a structured graph of companion author publication histories and citations spanning 502K total papers. We develop baselines and evaluations for each task, including LACERScore, a novel LLM-based measure of contribution similarity that outperforms previous metrics and approximates inter-annotator agreement. We find substantial headroom remains in each task -- e.g. in contribution generation, frontier LLMs achieve only moderate similarity to the ground-truth (GPT-5, averages 5.6 on a 1-10 scale). When composed into a 12-month end-to-end simulation of scientific production, the resulting synthetic corpus is systematically less diverse and less novel than human-authored research from the same period.

Data scarcity remains one of the most limiting factors in driving progress in robotics. However, the amount of available robotics data in the wild is growing exponentially, creating new opportunities for large-scale data utilization. Reliable temporal task completion prediction could help automatically annotate and curate this data at scale. The Generative Value Learning (GVL) approach was recently proposed, leveraging the knowledge embedded in vision-language models (VLMs) to predict task progress from visual observations. Building upon GVL, we propose OpenGVL, a comprehensive benchmark for estimating task progress across diverse challenging manipulation tasks involving both robotic and human embodiments. We evaluate the capabilities of publicly available open-source foundation models, showing that open-source model families significantly underperform closed-source counterparts, achieving only approximately 70% of their performance on temporal progress prediction tasks. Furthermore, we demonstrate how OpenGVL can serve as a practical tool for automated data curation and filtering, enabling efficient quality assessment of large-scale robotics datasets. We release the benchmark along with the complete codebase at github.com/budzianowski/opengvl{OpenGVL}.

In medical applications, deep learning methods are built to automate diagnostic tasks. However, a clinically relevant question that practitioners usually face, is how to predict the future trajectory of a disease (prognosis). Current methods for such a problem often require domain knowledge, and are complicated to apply. In this paper, we formulate the prognosis prediction problem as a one-to-many forecasting problem from multimodal data. Inspired by a clinical decision-making process with two agents -- a radiologist and a general practitioner, we model a prognosis prediction problem with two transformer-based components that share information between each other. The first block in this model aims to analyze the imaging data, and the second block leverages the internal representations of the first one as inputs, also fusing them with auxiliary patient data. We show the effectiveness of our method in predicting the development of structural knee osteoarthritis changes over time. Our results show that the proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines in terms of various performance metrics. In addition, we empirically show that the existence of the multi-agent transformers with depths of 2 is sufficient to achieve good performances. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/MIPT-Oulu/CLIMAT.

Glaucoma is the number one cause of irreversible blindness globally. A major challenge for accurate glaucoma detection and progression forecasting is the bottleneck of limited labeled patients with the state-of-the-art (SOTA) 3D retinal imaging data of optical coherence tomography (OCT). To address the data scarcity issue, this paper proposes two solutions. First, we develop a novel generalization-reinforced semi-supervised learning (SSL) model called pseudo supervisor to optimally utilize unlabeled data. Compared with SOTA models, the proposed pseudo supervisor optimizes the policy of predicting pseudo labels with unlabeled samples to improve empirical generalization. Our pseudo supervisor model is evaluated with two clinical tasks consisting of glaucoma detection and progression forecasting. The progression forecasting task is evaluated both unimodally and multimodally. Our pseudo supervisor model demonstrates superior performance than SOTA SSL comparison models. Moreover, our model also achieves the best results on the publicly available LAG fundus dataset. Second, we introduce the Harvard Glaucoma Detection and Progression (Harvard-GDP) Dataset, a multimodal multitask dataset that includes data from 1,000 patients with OCT imaging data, as well as labels for glaucoma detection and progression. This is the largest glaucoma detection dataset with 3D OCT imaging data and the first glaucoma progression forecasting dataset that is publicly available. Detailed sex and racial analysis are provided, which can be used by interested researchers for fairness learning studies. Our released dataset is benchmarked with several SOTA supervised CNN and transformer deep learning models. The dataset and code are made publicly available via https://ophai.hms.harvard.edu/datasets/harvard-gdp1000.

Foundation models mark a profound paradigm shift in time series modeling, with task-specific models being superseded by general-purpose zero-shot models. Yet, current approaches primarily focus on forecasting, while real-world time series are often irregularly and partially observed, requiring models that can jointly forecast, impute missing values, and handle degraded sampling conditions. To address these challenges, we introduce TS-ICL, a novel probabilistic In-Context Learning encoder--regressor Transformer that unifies forecasting and imputation. TS-ICL formulates time series tasks as timestamp-aligned regression and naturally incorporates covariates by training on synthetic dependency structures generated from a novel causal data prior. Empirically, TS-ICL achieves a new state-of-the-art in imputation, while remaining competitive with leading forecasting foundation models across both univariate and covariate-aware benchmarks. It shows particularly strong performance in forecasting with partially observed look-back windows.

We present the findings of "The Alzheimer's Disease Prediction Of Longitudinal Evolution" (TADPOLE) Challenge, which compared the performance of 92 algorithms from 33 international teams at predicting the future trajectory of 219 individuals at risk of Alzheimer's disease. Challenge participants were required to make a prediction, for each month of a 5-year future time period, of three key outcomes: clinical diagnosis, Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale Cognitive Subdomain (ADAS-Cog13), and total volume of the ventricles. The methods used by challenge participants included multivariate linear regression, machine learning methods such as support vector machines and deep neural networks, as well as disease progression models. No single submission was best at predicting all three outcomes. For clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume prediction, the best algorithms strongly outperform simple baselines in predictive ability. However, for ADAS-Cog13 no single submitted prediction method was significantly better than random guesswork. Two ensemble methods based on taking the mean and median over all predictions, obtained top scores on almost all tasks. Better than average performance at diagnosis prediction was generally associated with the additional inclusion of features from cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). On the other hand, better performance at ventricle volume prediction was associated with inclusion of summary statistics, such as the slope or maxima/minima of biomarkers. TADPOLE's unique results suggest that current prediction algorithms provide sufficient accuracy to exploit biomarkers related to clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume, for cohort refinement in clinical trials for Alzheimer's disease. However, results call into question the usage of cognitive test scores for patient selection and as a primary endpoint in clinical trials.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly embedded in scientific discovery, yet whether it can anticipate scientific progress remains unclear. To study this question, we introduce a temporally grounded evaluation framework for forecasting scientific progress under controlled knowledge constraints. We present CUSP (Cutoff-conditioned Unseen Scientific Progress), a multi-disciplinary and event-level benchmark that evaluates scientific forecasting in AI systems through feasibility assessment, mechanistic reasoning, generative solution design, and temporal prediction. Across 4,760 scientific events, we observe systematic and domain-dependent limitations in current frontier models. While models can identify plausible research directions from competing candidates, they fail to reliably predict whether scientific advances will be realized and systematically misestimate when they will occur. Performance is highly heterogeneous across domains, with the timing of AI progress more predictable than advances in biology, chemistry, and physics. Performance is largely insensitive to whether events occur before or after the training cutoff, suggesting these limitations cannot be explained solely by knowledge exposure in training data. Under controlled information access, additional pre-cutoff knowledge improves performance but does not close the gap to full-information settings, which becomes more pronounced for high-citation advances. Models also exhibit systematic overconfidence and strong response biases, indicating unreliable uncertainty estimation. Taken together, current AI systems fall short as predictive tools for scientific progress. Access to prior knowledge does not translate into reliable forecasting, and performance benefits more from post-event information than from forward-looking prediction.

Human trajectory prediction is typically posed as a zero-shot generalization problem: a predictor is learnt on a dataset of human motion in training scenes, and then deployed on unseen test scenes. While this paradigm has yielded tremendous progress, it fundamentally assumes that trends in human behavior within the deployment scene are constant over time. As such, current prediction models are unable to adapt to scene-specific transient human behaviors, such as crowds temporarily gathering to see buskers, pedestrians hurrying through the rain and avoiding puddles, or a protest breaking out. We formalize the problem of scene-specific adaptive trajectory prediction and propose a new adaptation approach inspired by prompt tuning called latent corridors. By augmenting the input of any pre-trained human trajectory predictor with learnable image prompts, the predictor can improve in the deployment scene by inferring trends from extremely small amounts of new data (e.g., 2 humans observed for 30 seconds). With less than 0.1% additional model parameters, we see up to 23.9% ADE improvement in MOTSynth simulated data and 16.4% ADE in MOT and Wildtrack real pedestrian data. Qualitatively, we observe that latent corridors imbue predictors with an awareness of scene geometry and scene-specific human behaviors that non-adaptive predictors struggle to capture. The project website can be found at https://neerja.me/atp_latent_corridors/.

We introduce Xmodel-1.5, a novel 1-billion-parameter multilingual large model pretrained on approximately 2 trillion tokens. The model demonstrates strong performance across several languages, with particularly notable results in Thai, Arabic, and French, alongside its effectiveness in Chinese and English. In addition, we contribute to the research community by releasing a Thai evaluation dataset, which includes hundreds of questions annotated by students from Chulalongkorn University's School of Integrated Innovation. While the results are promising, we acknowledge that there is still room for improvement. We hope this work advances ongoing efforts in multilingual AI research and promotes better cross-linguistic understanding in various natural language processing tasks. Our models and code are publicly available on GitHub at https://github.com/XiaoduoAILab/XmodelLM.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have the potential to automate reward engineering by leveraging their broad domain knowledge across various tasks. However, they often need many iterations of trial-and-error to generate effective reward functions. This process is costly because evaluating every sampled reward function requires completing the full policy optimization process for each function. In this paper, we introduce an LLM-driven reward generation framework that is able to produce state-of-the-art policies on the challenging Bi-DexHands benchmark with 20x fewer reward function samples than the prior state-of-the-art work. Our key insight is that we reduce the problem of generating task-specific rewards to the problem of coarsely estimating task progress. Our two-step solution leverages the task domain knowledge and the code synthesis abilities of LLMs to author progress functions that estimate task progress from a given state. Then, we use this notion of progress to discretize states, and generate count-based intrinsic rewards using the low-dimensional state space. We show that the combination of LLM-generated progress functions and count-based intrinsic rewards is essential for our performance gains, while alternatives such as generic hash-based counts or using progress directly as a reward function fall short.

Disease progression simulation is a crucial area of research that has significant implications for clinical diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment. One major challenge in this field is the lack of continuous medical imaging monitoring of individual patients over time. To address this issue, we develop a novel framework termed Progressive Image Editing (PIE) that enables controlled manipulation of disease-related image features, facilitating precise and realistic disease progression simulation. Specifically, we leverage recent advancements in text-to-image generative models to simulate disease progression accurately and personalize it for each patient. We theoretically analyze the iterative refining process in our framework as a gradient descent with an exponentially decayed learning rate. To validate our framework, we conduct experiments in three medical imaging domains. Our results demonstrate the superiority of PIE over existing methods such as Stable Diffusion Walk and Style-Based Manifold Extrapolation based on CLIP score (Realism) and Disease Classification Confidence (Alignment). Our user study collected feedback from 35 veteran physicians to assess the generated progressions. Remarkably, 76.2% of the feedback agrees with the fidelity of the generated progressions. To our best knowledge, PIE is the first of its kind to generate disease progression images meeting real-world standards. It is a promising tool for medical research and clinical practice, potentially allowing healthcare providers to model disease trajectories over time, predict future treatment responses, and improve patient outcomes.

Probabilistic forecasting estimates the likelihood of uncertain future events. To improve LLM forecasting, existing methods typically learn from binary outcomes to output verbalized forecasts. However, while aggregated human forecasts contain rich information in both the crowd probability estimate and the degree of agreement among forecasters, how to utilize these signals remains underexplored. To address this, we propose the Beta-Bernoulli Calibrator (BBC), which converts an initial point estimate forecast from any model into a distribution over event likelihood, using supervision from both binary outcomes and human forecasts. BBC models event likelihood p sim Beta(α, β) and outcome y sim Bernoulli(p), with the mean as the calibrated point forecast and the variance as the epistemic uncertainty. Our results show that BBC generally provides better calibrated and more accurate forecasts than both traditional post-hoc calibration methods and models fine-tuned specifically for forecasting, while remaining lightweight and having good generalization. We also show that the epistemic uncertainty captured by BBC is a more reliable predictor of forecasting error than verbalized confidence.

Learning algorithms are often used in conjunction with expert decision makers in practical scenarios, however this fact is largely ignored when designing these algorithms. In this paper we explore how to learn predictors that can either predict or choose to defer the decision to a downstream expert. Given only samples of the expert's decisions, we give a procedure based on learning a classifier and a rejector and analyze it theoretically. Our approach is based on a novel reduction to cost sensitive learning where we give a consistent surrogate loss for cost sensitive learning that generalizes the cross entropy loss. We show the effectiveness of our approach on a variety of experimental tasks.

Predicting invoice payment is valuable in multiple industries and supports decision-making processes in most financial workflows. However, the challenge in this realm involves dealing with complex data and the lack of data related to decisions-making processes not registered in the accounts receivable system. This work presents a prototype developed as a solution devised during a partnership with a multinational bank to support collectors in predicting invoices payment. The proposed prototype reached up to 77\% of accuracy, which improved the prioritization of customers and supported the daily work of collectors. With the presented results, one expects to support researchers dealing with the problem of invoice payment prediction to get insights and examples of how to tackle issues present in real data.

Tracking progress in machine learning has become increasingly difficult with the recent explosion in the number of papers. In this paper, we present AxCell, an automatic machine learning pipeline for extracting results from papers. AxCell uses several novel components, including a table segmentation subtask, to learn relevant structural knowledge that aids extraction. When compared with existing methods, our approach significantly improves the state of the art for results extraction. We also release a structured, annotated dataset for training models for results extraction, and a dataset for evaluating the performance of models on this task. Lastly, we show the viability of our approach enables it to be used for semi-automated results extraction in production, suggesting our improvements make this task practically viable for the first time. Code is available on GitHub.

Seamless human-robot manipulation in close proximity relies on accurate forecasts of human motion. While there has been significant progress in learning forecast models at scale, when applied to manipulation tasks, these models accrue high errors at critical transition points leading to degradation in downstream planning performance. Our key insight is that instead of predicting the most likely human motion, it is sufficient to produce forecasts that capture how future human motion would affect the cost of a robot's plan. We present ManiCast, a novel framework that learns cost-aware human forecasts and feeds them to a model predictive control planner to execute collaborative manipulation tasks. Our framework enables fluid, real-time interactions between a human and a 7-DoF robot arm across a number of real-world tasks such as reactive stirring, object handovers, and collaborative table setting. We evaluate both the motion forecasts and the end-to-end forecaster-planner system against a range of learned and heuristic baselines while additionally contributing new datasets. We release our code and datasets at https://portal-cornell.github.io/manicast/.

Autoregressive Large Language Models have transformed the landscape of Natural Language Processing. Pre-train and prompt paradigm has replaced the conventional approach of pre-training and fine-tuning for many downstream NLP tasks. This shift has been possible largely due to LLMs and innovative prompting techniques. LLMs have shown great promise for a variety of downstream tasks owing to their vast parameters and huge datasets that they are pre-trained on. However, in order to fully realize their potential, their outputs must be guided towards the desired outcomes. Prompting, in which a specific input or instruction is provided to guide the LLMs toward the intended output, has become a tool for achieving this goal. In this paper, we discuss the various prompting techniques that have been applied to fully harness the power of LLMs. We present a taxonomy of existing literature on prompting techniques and provide a concise survey based on this taxonomy. Further, we identify some open problems in the realm of prompting in autoregressive LLMs which could serve as a direction for future research.

Reinforcement learning (RL) holds significant promise for training LLM agents to handle complex, goal-oriented tasks that require multi-step interactions with external environments. However, a critical challenge when applying RL to these agentic tasks arises from delayed rewards: feedback signals are typically available only after the entire task is completed. This makes it non-trivial to assign delayed rewards to earlier actions, providing insufficient guidance regarding environmental constraints and hindering agent training. In this work, we draw on the insight that the ultimate completion of a task emerges from the cumulative progress an agent makes across individual steps. We propose Stepwise Progress Attribution (SPA), a general reward redistribution framework that decomposes the final reward into stepwise contributions, each reflecting its incremental progress toward overall task completion. To achieve this, we train a progress estimator that accumulates stepwise contributions over a trajectory to match the task completion. During policy optimization, we combine the estimated per-step contribution with a grounding signal for actions executed in the environment as the fine-grained, intermediate reward for effective agent training. Extensive experiments on common agent benchmarks (including Webshop, ALFWorld, and VirtualHome) demonstrate that SPA consistently outperforms the state-of-the-art method in both success rate (+2.5\% on average) and grounding accuracy (+1.9\% on average). Further analyses demonstrate that our method remarkably provides more effective intermediate rewards for RL training. Our code is available at https://github.com/WangHanLinHenry/SPA-RL-Agent.

Nowadays, time series forecasting is predominantly approached through the end-to-end training of deep learning architectures using error-based objectives. While this is effective at minimizing average loss, it encourages the encoder to discard informative yet extreme patterns. This results in smooth predictions and temporal representations that poorly capture salient dynamics. To address this issue, we propose ReGuider, a plug-in method that can be seamlessly integrated into any forecasting architecture. ReGuider leverages pretrained time series foundation models as semantic teachers. During training, the input sequence is processed together by the target forecasting model and the pretrained model. Rather than using the pretrained model's outputs directly, we extract its intermediate embeddings, which are rich in temporal and semantic information, and align them with the target model's encoder embeddings through representation-level supervision. This alignment process enables the encoder to learn more expressive temporal representations, thereby improving the accuracy of downstream forecasting. Extensive experimentation across diverse datasets and architectures demonstrates that our ReGuider consistently improves forecasting performance, confirming its effectiveness and versatility.

With the advent of LLMs, various tasks across the natural language processing domain have been transformed. However, their application in predictive tasks remains less researched. This study compares large language models, including GatorTron-Base (trained on clinical data), Llama 8B, and Mistral 7B, against models like BioBERT, DocBERT, BioClinicalBERT, Word2Vec, and Doc2Vec, setting benchmarks for predicting Shock in critically ill patients. Timely prediction of shock can enable early interventions, thus improving patient outcomes. Text data from 17,294 ICU stays of patients in the MIMIC III database were scored for length of stay > 24 hours and shock index (SI) > 0.7 to yield 355 and 87 patients with normal and abnormal SI-index, respectively. Both focal and cross-entropy losses were used during finetuning to address class imbalances. Our findings indicate that while GatorTron Base achieved the highest weighted recall of 80.5%, the overall performance metrics were comparable between SLMs and LLMs. This suggests that LLMs are not inherently superior to SLMs in predicting future clinical events despite their strong performance on text-based tasks. To achieve meaningful clinical outcomes, future efforts in training LLMs should prioritize developing models capable of predicting clinical trajectories rather than focusing on simpler tasks such as named entity recognition or phenotyping.

General-purpose robot reward models are typically trained to predict absolute task progress from expert demonstrations, providing only local, frame-level supervision. While effective for expert demonstrations, this paradigm scales poorly to large-scale robotics datasets where failed and suboptimal trajectories are abundant and assigning dense progress labels is ambiguous. We introduce Robometer, a scalable reward modeling framework that combines intra-trajectory progress supervision with inter-trajectory preference supervision. Robometer is trained with a dual objective: a frame-level progress loss that anchors reward magnitude on expert data, and a trajectory-comparison preference loss that imposes global ordering constraints across trajectories of the same task, enabling effective learning from both real and augmented failed trajectories. To support this formulation at scale, we curate RBM-1M, a reward-learning dataset comprising over one million trajectories spanning diverse robot embodiments and tasks, including substantial suboptimal and failure data. Across benchmarks and real-world evaluations, Robometer learns more generalizable reward functions than prior methods and improves robot learning performance across a diverse set of downstream applications. Code, model weights, and videos at https://robometer.github.io/.

When an LLM agent reads a confidential file, then writes a summary, then emails it externally, no single step is unsafe, but the sequence is a data leak. We call this safety drift: individually safe actions compounding into violations. Prior work has measured this problem; we predict it. SafetyDrift models agent safety trajectories as absorbing Markov chains, computing the probability that a trajectory will reach a violation within a given number of steps via closed form absorption analysis. A consequence of the monotonic state design is that every agent will eventually violate safety if left unsupervised (absorption probability 1.0 from all states), making the practical question not if but when, and motivating our focus on finite horizon prediction. Across 357 traces spanning 40 realistic tasks in four categories, we discover that "points of no return" are sharply task dependent: in communication tasks, agents that reach even a mild risk state have an 85% chance of violating safety within five steps, while in technical tasks the probability stays below 5% from any state. A lightweight monitor built on these models detects 94.7% of violations with 3.7 steps of advance warning at negligible computational cost, outperforming both keyword matching (44.7% detection, 55.9% false positive rate) and per step LLM judges (52.6% detection, 38.2% false positive rate) while running over 60,000x faster.

Progress in language model development is often driven by comparative decisions: which architecture to adopt, which pretraining corpus to use, or which training recipe to apply. Making these decisions well requires reliable performance forecasts, yet the two commonly used signals are fundamentally limited. Cross-entropy loss is poorly aligned with downstream capabilities, and direct downstream evaluation is expensive, sparse, and often uninformative at early training stages. Instead, we propose to construct proxy metrics by aggregating token-level statistics, such as entropy, top-k accuracy, and expert token rank, from a candidate model's next token distribution over expert-written solutions. Across three settings, our proxies consistently outperform loss- and compute-based baselines: 1) For cross-family model selection, they rank a heterogeneous population of reasoning models with mean Spearman Rho = 0.81 (vs. Rho = 0.36 for cross-entropy loss); 2) For pretraining data selection, they reliably rank 25 candidate corpora for a target model at roughly 10{,}000times less compute than direct evaluation, pushing the Pareto frontier beyond existing methods; and 3) for training-time forecasting, they extrapolate downstream accuracy across an 18times compute horizon with roughly half the error of existing alternatives. Together, these results suggest that expert trajectories are a broadly useful source of signal for assessing model capabilities, enabling reliable performance forecasting throughout the model development life cycle.

Many real-world prediction problems lack labels observable at prediction time, creating a temporal gap between prediction and outcome that yields supervision only after events resolve. To address this setting, we extend reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards to temporally resolved real-world prediction, and use it to train language models to make probabilistic forecasts under causally masked information with retrospective evaluation using proper scoring rules. Supervision is derived solely from post-resolution outcomes, preserving delayed-reward semantics. On real-world forecasting benchmarks, Qwen3-32B trained using Foresight Learning improves Brier score by 27% and halves calibration error relative to its pretrained baseline, and outperforms Qwen3-235B on both constructed future-event prediction tasks and the Metaculus benchmark despite a 7x parameter disadvantage.

Accurately estimating task progress is critical for embodied agents to plan and execute long-horizon, multi-step tasks. Despite promising advances, existing Vision-Language Models (VLMs) based methods primarily leverage their video understanding capabilities, while neglecting their complex reasoning potential. Furthermore, processing long video trajectories with VLMs is computationally prohibitive for real-world deployment. To address these challenges, we propose the Recurrent Reasoning Vision-Language Model (R^2VLM). Our model features a recurrent reasoning framework that processes local video snippets iteratively, maintaining a global context through an evolving Chain of Thought (CoT). This CoT explicitly records task decomposition, key steps, and their completion status, enabling the model to reason about complex temporal dependencies. This design avoids the high cost of processing long videos while preserving essential reasoning capabilities. We train R^2VLM on large-scale, automatically generated datasets from ALFRED and Ego4D. Extensive experiments on progress estimation and downstream applications, including progress-enhanced policy learning, reward modeling for reinforcement learning, and proactive assistance, demonstrate that R^2VLM achieves strong performance and generalization, achieving a new state-of-the-art in long-horizon task progress estimation. The models and benchmarks are publicly available at https://huggingface.co/collections/zhangyuelin/r2vlm{huggingface}.

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) and vision-language models (VLMs) have enabled increasingly capable digital agents for computer use. However, real-world tasks are often long-horizon and involve evolving contexts containing accumulated observations, intermediate edits, failed attempts, and partially completed executions. Existing agents typically operate over raw interaction history, making task progress difficult to interpret, verify, and recover, which ultimately limits reliable long-horizon execution. In this paper, we argue that addressing this challenge requires explicitly structuring both the agent's state and workflow around a unified causal representation of task progress. We present StructAgent, a state-centered framework that introduces a unified state for maintaining compact, verifiable task progress and a structured workflow that regulates progress through verifier-backed state transitions. Building on this design, StructAgent further enables explicit progress checkpointing, evidence-driven task completion, targeted failure recovery, and tool-supported execution, while ensuring that all progress updates remain grounded in verification. Extensive experiments demonstrate that StructAgent consistently improves a wide range of LLM and VLM backbones on long-horizon computer-use tasks. On OSWorld-Verified, it improves Qwen3.5-9B from 27.0\% to 46.9\% success rate and Qwen3.5-27B from 31.6\% to 62.2\%, while achieving a new open-source state of the art of 78.9\% with MiniMax-M3. Moreover, the same framework generalizes beyond desktop environments to Minecraft, demonstrating the generality of our design.

Background: Electronic Health Records hold detailed longitudinal information about each patient's health status and general clinical history, a large portion of which is stored within the unstructured text. Existing approaches focus mostly on structured data and a subset of single-domain outcomes. We explore how temporal modelling of patients from free text and structured data, using deep generative transformers can be used to forecast a wide range of future disorders, substances, procedures or findings. Methods: We present Foresight, a novel transformer-based pipeline that uses named entity recognition and linking tools to convert document text into structured, coded concepts, followed by providing probabilistic forecasts for future medical events such as disorders, substances, procedures and findings. We processed the entire free-text portion from three different hospital datasets totalling 811336 patients covering both physical and mental health. Findings: On tests in two UK hospitals (King's College Hospital, South London and Maudsley) and the US MIMIC-III dataset precision@10 0.68, 0.76 and 0.88 was achieved for forecasting the next disorder in a patient timeline, while precision@10 of 0.80, 0.81 and 0.91 was achieved for forecasting the next biomedical concept. Foresight was also validated on 34 synthetic patient timelines by five clinicians and achieved relevancy of 97% for the top forecasted candidate disorder. As a generative model, it can forecast follow-on biomedical concepts for as many steps as required. Interpretation: Foresight is a general-purpose model for biomedical concept modelling that can be used for real-world risk forecasting, virtual trials and clinical research to study the progression of disorders, simulate interventions and counterfactuals, and educational purposes.

Class-incremental learning (CIL) is a particularly challenging variant of continual learning, where the goal is to learn to discriminate between all classes presented in an incremental fashion. Existing approaches often suffer from excessive forgetting and imbalance of the scores assigned to classes that have not been seen together during training. In this study, we introduce a novel approach, Prediction Error-based Classification (PEC), which differs from traditional discriminative and generative classification paradigms. PEC computes a class score by measuring the prediction error of a model trained to replicate the outputs of a frozen random neural network on data from that class. The method can be interpreted as approximating a classification rule based on Gaussian Process posterior variance. PEC offers several practical advantages, including sample efficiency, ease of tuning, and effectiveness even when data are presented one class at a time. Our empirical results show that PEC performs strongly in single-pass-through-data CIL, outperforming other rehearsal-free baselines in all cases and rehearsal-based methods with moderate replay buffer size in most cases across multiple benchmarks.

Adherence to prescribed treatments is crucial for individuals with chronic conditions to avoid costly or adverse health outcomes. For certain patient groups, intensive lifestyle interventions are vital for enhancing medication adherence. Accurate forecasting of treatment adherence can open pathways to developing an on-demand intervention tool, enabling timely and personalized support. With the increasing popularity of smartphones and wearables, it is now easier than ever to develop and deploy smart activity monitoring systems. However, effective forecasting systems for treatment adherence based on wearable sensors are still not widely available. We close this gap by proposing Adherence Forecasting and Intervention with Machine Intelligence (AIMI). AIMI is a knowledge-guided adherence forecasting system that leverages smartphone sensors and previous medication history to estimate the likelihood of forgetting to take a prescribed medication. A user study was conducted with 27 participants who took daily medications to manage their cardiovascular diseases. We designed and developed CNN and LSTM-based forecasting models with various combinations of input features and found that LSTM models can forecast medication adherence with an accuracy of 0.932 and an F-1 score of 0.936. Moreover, through a series of ablation studies involving convolutional and recurrent neural network architectures, we demonstrate that leveraging known knowledge about future and personalized training enhances the accuracy of medication adherence forecasting. Code available: https://github.com/ab9mamun/AIMI.

This technical report describes the AIA Forecaster, a Large Language Model (LLM)-based system for judgmental forecasting using unstructured data. The AIA Forecaster approach combines three core elements: agentic search over high-quality news sources, a supervisor agent that reconciles disparate forecasts for the same event, and a set of statistical calibration techniques to counter behavioral biases in large language models. On the ForecastBench benchmark (Karger et al., 2024), the AIA Forecaster achieves performance equal to human superforecasters, surpassing prior LLM baselines. In addition to reporting on ForecastBench, we also introduce a more challenging forecasting benchmark sourced from liquid prediction markets. While the AIA Forecaster underperforms market consensus on this benchmark, an ensemble combining AIA Forecaster with market consensus outperforms consensus alone, demonstrating that our forecaster provides additive information. Our work establishes a new state of the art in AI forecasting and provides practical, transferable recommendations for future research. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that verifiably achieves expert-level forecasting at scale.

Autonomous driving requires safe planning, but most learning-based planners lack explicit self-correction ability: once an unsafe action is proposed, there is no mechanism to correct it. Thus, we propose CorrectionPlanner, an autoregressive planner with self-correction that models planning as motion-token generation within a propose, evaluate, and correct loop. At each planning step, the policy proposes an action, namely a motion token, and a learned collision critic predicts whether it will induce a collision within a short horizon. If the critic predicts a collision, we retain the sequence of historical unsafe motion tokens as a self-correction trace, generate the next motion token conditioned on it, and repeat this process until a safe motion token is proposed or the safety criterion is met. This self-correction trace, consisting of all unsafe motion tokens, represents the planner's correction process in motion-token space, analogous to a reasoning trace in language models. We train the planner with imitation learning followed by model-based reinforcement learning using rollouts from a pretrained world model that realistically models agents' reactive behaviors. Closed-loop evaluations show that CorrectionPlanner reduces collision rate by over 20% on Waymax and achieves state-of-the-art planning scores on nuPlan.

We investigate the predictability of large language model (LLM) capabilities: given records of past experiments using different model families, numbers of parameters, tasks, and numbers of in-context examples, can we accurately predict LLM performance on new experiment configurations? Answering this question has practical implications for LLM users (e.g., deciding which models to try), developers (e.g., prioritizing evaluation on representative tasks), and the research community (e.g., identifying hard-to-predict capabilities that warrant further investigation). We study the performance prediction problem on experiment records from BIG-bench. On a random train-test split, an MLP-based predictor achieves an R^2 score greater than 95%, indicating the presence of learnable patterns within the experiment records. We then formulate the problem of searching for "small-bench," an informative subset of BIG-bench tasks from which the performance on the full set can be maximally recovered. We find a subset as informative as BIG-bench Hard for evaluating new model families, while being 3times smaller. Additionally, we find competitive subsets by clustering task representations learned by our MLP-based predictor and selecting tasks close to cluster centroids, highlighting the importance of task diversity in constructing "small-bench."

Scientific and engineering progress is fundamentally a long-horizon iterative process: proposing changes, running experiments, measuring outcomes, and continuously refining artifacts. Yet existing benchmarks for frontier models primarily evaluate either single-turn responses or short-horizon agent trajectories, failing to capture the challenges of sustained iterative improvement over extended time horizons. To address this gap, we introduce AutoLab, a new benchmark for ultra long-horizon closed-loop optimization. AutoLab consists of 36 realistic, expert-curated tasks spanning four diverse domains: system optimization, puzzle & challenge, model development, and CUDA kernel optimization. Each task begins with a correct but deliberately suboptimal baseline and challenges agents to improve it within a strict wall-clock budget. Evaluating 17 state-of-the-art models reveals the dominant predictor of success is not the quality of an agent's initial attempt, but its persistence in repeatedly benchmarking, editing, and incorporating empirical feedback. While claude-opus-4.6 exhibits strong long-horizon optimization capabilities, most frontier models, including several proprietary ones, either terminate prematurely or exhaust their budgets with minimal progress. These results underscore the importance of time awareness and persistent iteration in autonomous agents. We open-source the full benchmark, evaluation harness, and task artifacts, to accelerate research toward truly capable long-horizon agents.

Acceleration of large language model pre-training is a critical issue in present NLP research. In this paper, we focus on speeding up pre-training by progressively growing from a small Transformer structure to a large one. There are two main research problems related to progressive growth: growth schedule and growth operator. For growth schedule, existing work has explored multi-stage expansion of depth and feedforward layers. However, the impact of each dimension on the schedule's efficiency is still an open question. For growth operator, existing work relies on the initialization of new weights to inherit knowledge, and achieve only non-strict function preservation, limiting further optimization of training dynamics. To address these issues, we propose Masked Structural Growth (MSG), including growth schedules involving all possible dimensions and strictly function-preserving growth operators that is independent of the initialization of new weights. Experiments show that MSG is significantly faster than related work: we achieve a speed-up of 80% for Bert-base and 120% for Bert-large pre-training. Moreover, MSG is able to improve fine-tuning performances at the same time.

Machine learning models have been trained to predict semantic information about user interfaces (UIs) to make apps more accessible, easier to test, and to automate. Currently, most models rely on datasets that are collected and labeled by human crowd-workers, a process that is costly and surprisingly error-prone for certain tasks. For example, it is possible to guess if a UI element is "tappable" from a screenshot (i.e., based on visual signifiers) or from potentially unreliable metadata (e.g., a view hierarchy), but one way to know for certain is to programmatically tap the UI element and observe the effects. We built the Never-ending UI Learner, an app crawler that automatically installs real apps from a mobile app store and crawls them to discover new and challenging training examples to learn from. The Never-ending UI Learner has crawled for more than 5,000 device-hours, performing over half a million actions on 6,000 apps to train three computer vision models for i) tappability prediction, ii) draggability prediction, and iii) screen similarity.

Text entry is an essential task in our day-to-day digital interactions. Numerous intelligent features have been developed to streamline this process, making text entry more effective, efficient, and fluid. These improvements include sentence prediction and user personalization. However, as deep learning-based language models become the norm for these advanced features, the necessity for data collection and model fine-tuning increases. These challenges can be mitigated by harnessing the in-context learning capability of large language models such as GPT-3.5. This unique feature allows the language model to acquire new skills through prompts, eliminating the need for data collection and fine-tuning. Consequently, large language models can learn various text prediction techniques. We initially showed that, for a sentence prediction task, merely prompting GPT-3.5 surpassed a GPT-2 backed system and is comparable with a fine-tuned GPT-3.5 model, with the latter two methods requiring costly data collection, fine-tuning and post-processing. However, the task of prompting large language models to specialize in specific text prediction tasks can be challenging, particularly for designers without expertise in prompt engineering. To address this, we introduce Promptor, a conversational prompt generation agent designed to engage proactively with designers. Promptor can automatically generate complex prompts tailored to meet specific needs, thus offering a solution to this challenge. We conducted a user study involving 24 participants creating prompts for three intelligent text entry tasks, half of the participants used Promptor while the other half designed prompts themselves. The results show that Promptor-designed prompts result in a 35% increase in similarity and 22% in coherence over those by designers.

The goal of continual learning is to improve the performance of recognition models in learning sequentially arrived data. Although most existing works are established on the premise of learning from scratch, growing efforts have been devoted to incorporating the benefits of pre-training. However, how to adaptively exploit the pre-trained knowledge for each incremental task while maintaining its generalizability remains an open question. In this work, we present an extensive analysis for continual learning on a pre-trained model (CLPM), and attribute the key challenge to a progressive overfitting problem. Observing that selectively reducing the learning rate can almost resolve this issue in the representation layer, we propose a simple but extremely effective approach named Slow Learner with Classifier Alignment (SLCA), which further improves the classification layer by modeling the class-wise distributions and aligning the classification layers in a post-hoc fashion. Across a variety of scenarios, our proposal provides substantial improvements for CLPM (e.g., up to 49.76%, 50.05%, 44.69% and 40.16% on Split CIFAR-100, Split ImageNet-R, Split CUB-200 and Split Cars-196, respectively), and thus outperforms state-of-the-art approaches by a large margin. Based on such a strong baseline, critical factors and promising directions are analyzed in-depth to facilitate subsequent research. Code has been made available at: https://github.com/GengDavid/SLCA.

This report details the development and key achievements of our latest language model designed for custom large language models. The advancements introduced include a novel Online Data Scheduler that supports flexible training data adjustments and curriculum learning. The model's architecture is fortified with state-of-the-art techniques such as Rotary Positional Embeddings, QK-LayerNorm, and a specially crafted multilingual tokenizer to enhance stability and performance. Moreover, our robust training framework incorporates advanced monitoring and rapid recovery features to ensure optimal efficiency. Our Wonton 7B model has demonstrated competitive performance on a range of multilingual and English benchmarks. Future developments will prioritize narrowing the performance gap with more extensively trained models, thereby enhancing the model's real-world efficacy and adaptability.GitHub: https://github.com/nyonicai/nyonic-public

This study examines the relationship between income inequality, gender, and school completion rates in Malaysia using machine learning techniques. The dataset utilized is from the Malaysia's Public Sector Open Data Portal, covering the period 2016-2022. The analysis employs various machine learning techniques, including K-means clustering, ARIMA modeling, Random Forest regression, and Prophet for time series forecasting. These models are used to identify patterns, trends, and anomalies in the data, and to predict future school completion rates. Key findings reveal significant disparities in school completion rates across states, genders, and income levels. The analysis also identifies clusters of states with similar completion rates, suggesting potential regional factors influencing educational outcomes. Furthermore, time series forecasting models accurately predict future completion rates, highlighting the importance of ongoing monitoring and intervention strategies. The study concludes with recommendations for policymakers and educators to address the observed disparities and improve school completion rates in Malaysia. These recommendations include targeted interventions for specific states and demographic groups, investment in early childhood education, and addressing the impact of income inequality on educational opportunities. The findings of this study contribute to the understanding of the factors influencing school completion in Malaysia and provide valuable insights for policymakers and educators to develop effective strategies to improve educational outcomes.

Context: Motivation is known to improve performance. In software development in particular, there has been considerable interest in the motivation of contributors to open source. Objective: We identify 11 motivators from the literature (enjoying programming, ownership of code, learning, self use, etc.), and evaluate their relative effect on motivation. Since motivation is an internal subjective feeling, we also analyze the validity of the answers. Method: We conducted a survey with 66 questions on motivation which was completed by 521 developers. Most of the questions used an 11 point scale. We evaluated the validity of the answers validity by comparing related questions, comparing to actual behavior on GitHub, and comparison with the same developer in a follow up survey. Results: Validity problems include moderate correlations between answers to related questions, as well as self promotion and mistakes in the answers. Despite these problems, predictive analysis, investigating how diverse motivators influence the probability of high motivation, provided valuable insights. The correlations between the different motivators are low, implying their independence. High values in all 11 motivators predict increased probability of high motivation. In addition, improvement analysis shows that an increase in most motivators predicts an increase in general motivation.

While Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models have seen rapid progress in pretraining, their advancement in Reinforcement Learning (RL) remains hampered by low sample efficiency and sparse rewards in real-world settings. Developing generalizable process reward models is essential for providing the fine-grained feedback necessary to bridge this gap, yet existing temporal value functions often fail to generalize beyond their training domains. We introduce TOPReward, a novel, probabilistically grounded temporal value function that leverages the latent world knowledge of pretrained video Vision-Language Models (VLMs) to estimate robotic task progress. Unlike prior methods that prompt VLMs to directly output progress values, which are prone to numerical misrepresentation, TOPReward extracts task progress directly from the VLM's internal token logits. In zero-shot evaluations across 130+ distinct real-world tasks and multiple robot platforms (e.g., Franka, YAM, SO-100/101), TOPReward achieves 0.947 mean Value-Order Correlation (VOC) on Qwen3-VL, dramatically outperforming the state-of-the-art GVL baseline which achieves near-zero correlation on the same open-source model. We further demonstrate that TOPReward serves as a versatile tool for downstream applications, including success detection and reward-aligned behavior cloning.

Clinical case reports encode temporal patient trajectories that are often underexploited by traditional machine learning methods relying on structured data. In this work, we introduce the forecasting problem from textual time series, where timestamped clinical findings -- extracted via an LLM-assisted annotation pipeline -- serve as the primary input for prediction. We systematically evaluate a diverse suite of models, including fine-tuned decoder-based large language models and encoder-based transformers, on tasks of event occurrence prediction, temporal ordering, and survival analysis. Our experiments reveal that encoder-based models consistently achieve higher F1 scores and superior temporal concordance for short- and long-horizon event forecasting, while fine-tuned masking approaches enhance ranking performance. In contrast, instruction-tuned decoder models demonstrate a relative advantage in survival analysis, especially in early prognosis settings. Our sensitivity analyses further demonstrate the importance of time ordering, which requires clinical time series construction, as compared to text ordering, the format of the text inputs that LLMs are classically trained on. This highlights the additional benefit that can be ascertained from time-ordered corpora, with implications for temporal tasks in the era of widespread LLM use.

Computer-use agents provide a promising path toward general software automation because they can interact directly with arbitrary graphical user interfaces instead of relying on brittle, application-specific integrations. Despite recent advances in benchmark performance, strong computer-use agents remain expensive and slow in practice, since most systems invoke large multimodal models at nearly every interaction step. We argue that this uniform allocation of compute is fundamentally inefficient for long-horizon GUI tasks. Such trajectories are highly heterogeneous: many steps are routine and can be handled reliably by smaller, cheaper policies, while errors tend to concentrate at a relatively small number of high-risk moments. Across computer-use benchmarks, these failures repeatedly take two forms: progress stalls, where the agent loops, repeats ineffective actions, or fails to make meaningful progress, and silent semantic drift, where the agent continues taking locally plausible actions after already deviating from the user's true goal. To address this inefficiency, we propose an event-driven, step-level cascade for computer-use agents that runs a small policy by default and escalates to a stronger model only when lightweight learned monitors detect elevated risk. Our framework combines two complementary signals: a Stuck Monitor that detects degraded progress from recent reasoning-action history and triggers recovery, and a Milestone Monitor that identifies semantically meaningful checkpoints where sparse verification is most informative for catching drift. This design turns always-on frontier-model inference into adaptive, on-demand compute allocation over the course of an evolving interaction. The framework is modular and deployment-oriented: it can be layered on top of existing computer-use agents without changing the underlying agent architecture or retraining the large model.

The cycle of scientific discovery is frequently bottlenecked by the slow, manual creation of software to support computational experiments. To address this, we present an AI system that creates expert-level scientific software whose goal is to maximize a quality metric. The system uses a Large Language Model (LLM) and Tree Search (TS) to systematically improve the quality metric and intelligently navigate the large space of possible solutions. The system achieves expert-level results when it explores and integrates complex research ideas from external sources. The effectiveness of tree search is demonstrated across a wide range of benchmarks. In bioinformatics, it discovered 40 novel methods for single-cell data analysis that outperformed the top human-developed methods on a public leaderboard. In epidemiology, it generated 14 models that outperformed the CDC ensemble and all other individual models for forecasting COVID-19 hospitalizations. Our method also produced state-of-the-art software for geospatial analysis, neural activity prediction in zebrafish, time series forecasting and numerical solution of integrals. By devising and implementing novel solutions to diverse tasks, the system represents a significant step towards accelerating scientific progress.

Models that can predict the occurrence of events ahead of time with low false-alarm rates are critical to the acceptance of decision support systems in the medical community. This challenging task is typically treated as a simple binary classification, ignoring temporal dependencies between samples, whereas we propose to exploit this structure. We first introduce a common theoretical framework unifying dynamic survival analysis and early event prediction. Following an analysis of objectives from both fields, we propose Temporal Label Smoothing (TLS), a simpler, yet best-performing method that preserves prediction monotonicity over time. By focusing the objective on areas with a stronger predictive signal, TLS improves performance over all baselines on two large-scale benchmark tasks. Gains are particularly notable along clinically relevant measures, such as event recall at low false-alarm rates. TLS reduces the number of missed events by up to a factor of two over previously used approaches in early event prediction.

Radiotherapy often involves a prolonged treatment period. During this time, patients may experience organ motion due to breathing and other physiological factors. Predicting and modeling this motion before treatment is crucial for ensuring precise radiation delivery. However, existing pre-treatment organ motion prediction methods primarily rely on deformation analysis using principal component analysis (PCA), which is highly dependent on registration quality and struggles to capture periodic temporal dynamics for motion modeling.In this paper, we observe that organ motion prediction closely resembles an autoregressive process, a technique widely used in natural language processing (NLP). Autoregressive models predict the next token based on previous inputs, naturally aligning with our objective of predicting future organ motion phases. Building on this insight, we reformulate organ motion prediction as an autoregressive process to better capture patient-specific motion patterns. Specifically, we acquire 4D CT scans for each patient before treatment, with each sequence comprising multiple 3D CT phases. These phases are fed into the autoregressive model to predict future phases based on prior phase motion patterns. We evaluate our method on a real-world test set of 4D CT scans from 50 patients who underwent radiotherapy at our institution and a public dataset containing 4D CT scans from 20 patients (some with multiple scans), totaling over 1,300 3D CT phases. The performance in predicting the motion of the lung and heart surpasses existing benchmarks, demonstrating its effectiveness in capturing motion dynamics from CT images. These results highlight the potential of our method to improve pre-treatment planning in radiotherapy, enabling more precise and adaptive radiation delivery.

Self-predictive unsupervised learning methods such as BYOL or SimSiam have shown impressive results, and counter-intuitively, do not collapse to trivial representations. In this work, we aim at exploring the simplest possible mathematical arguments towards explaining the underlying mechanisms behind self-predictive unsupervised learning. We start with the observation that those methods crucially rely on the presence of a predictor network (and stop-gradient). With simple linear algebra, we show that when using a linear predictor, the optimal predictor is close to an orthogonal projection, and propose a general framework based on orthonormalization that enables to interpret and give intuition on why BYOL works. In addition, this framework demonstrates the crucial role of the exponential moving average and stop-gradient operator in BYOL as an efficient orthonormalization mechanism. We use these insights to propose four new closed-form predictor variants of BYOL to support our analysis. Our closed-form predictors outperform standard linear trainable predictor BYOL at 100 and 300 epochs (top-1 linear accuracy on ImageNet).

The proposed method, Discriminator Guidance, aims to improve sample generation of pre-trained diffusion models. The approach introduces a discriminator that gives explicit supervision to a denoising sample path whether it is realistic or not. Unlike GANs, our approach does not require joint training of score and discriminator networks. Instead, we train the discriminator after score training, making discriminator training stable and fast to converge. In sample generation, we add an auxiliary term to the pre-trained score to deceive the discriminator. This term corrects the model score to the data score at the optimal discriminator, which implies that the discriminator helps better score estimation in a complementary way. Using our algorithm, we achive state-of-the-art results on ImageNet 256x256 with FID 1.83 and recall 0.64, similar to the validation data's FID (1.68) and recall (0.66). We release the code at https://github.com/alsdudrla10/DG.

We introduce NeuralProphet, a successor to Facebook Prophet, which set an industry standard for explainable, scalable, and user-friendly forecasting frameworks. With the proliferation of time series data, explainable forecasting remains a challenging task for business and operational decision making. Hybrid solutions are needed to bridge the gap between interpretable classical methods and scalable deep learning models. We view Prophet as a precursor to such a solution. However, Prophet lacks local context, which is essential for forecasting the near-term future and is challenging to extend due to its Stan backend. NeuralProphet is a hybrid forecasting framework based on PyTorch and trained with standard deep learning methods, making it easy for developers to extend the framework. Local context is introduced with auto-regression and covariate modules, which can be configured as classical linear regression or as Neural Networks. Otherwise, NeuralProphet retains the design philosophy of Prophet and provides the same basic model components. Our results demonstrate that NeuralProphet produces interpretable forecast components of equivalent or superior quality to Prophet on a set of generated time series. NeuralProphet outperforms Prophet on a diverse collection of real-world datasets. For short to medium-term forecasts, NeuralProphet improves forecast accuracy by 55 to 92 percent.

In this work, we introduce Brain Latent Progression (BrLP), a novel spatiotemporal disease progression model based on latent diffusion. BrLP is designed to predict the evolution of diseases at the individual level on 3D brain MRIs. Existing deep generative models developed for this task are primarily data-driven and face challenges in learning disease progressions. BrLP addresses these challenges by incorporating prior knowledge from disease models to enhance the accuracy of predictions. To implement this, we propose to integrate an auxiliary model that infers volumetric changes in various brain regions. Additionally, we introduce Latent Average Stabilization (LAS), a novel technique to improve spatiotemporal consistency of the predicted progression. BrLP is trained and evaluated on a large dataset comprising 11,730 T1-weighted brain MRIs from 2,805 subjects, collected from three publicly available, longitudinal Alzheimer's Disease (AD) studies. In our experiments, we compare the MRI scans generated by BrLP with the actual follow-up MRIs available from the subjects, in both cross-sectional and longitudinal settings. BrLP demonstrates significant improvements over existing methods, with an increase of 22% in volumetric accuracy across AD-related brain regions and 43% in image similarity to the ground-truth scans. The ability of BrLP to generate conditioned 3D scans at the subject level, along with the novelty of integrating prior knowledge to enhance accuracy, represents a significant advancement in disease progression modeling, opening new avenues for precision medicine. The code of BrLP is available at the following link: https://github.com/LemuelPuglisi/BrLP.

This study presents a hybrid framework for predicting movie success. The framework integrates multi-task learning (MTL), GPT-based sentiment analysis, and Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) propagation modeling. The study examines limitations in existing approaches. It models static production attributes, information dissemination, and audience sentiment at the same time. The framework uses 5,840 films from 2004 to 2024 and approximate 300,000 user reviews. It shows predictive performance with classification accuracy of 0.964 and regression metrics of MAE 0.388. Ablation analysis indicates component interactions. Selective feature combinations perform better than the comprehensive model. This result questions assumptions about feature integration. The model shows virality patterns between successful and unsuccessful films. Innovations include epidemiological modeling for information diffusion, multidimensional sentiment features from GPT-based analysis, and a shared representation architecture that optimizes multiple success metrics. The framework provides applications in the film production lifecycle. It also contributes to understanding how audience engagement leads to commercial outcomes.

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models excel in robotic manipulation but are constrained by their heavy reliance on expert demonstrations, leading to demonstration bias and limiting performance. Reinforcement learning (RL) is a vital post-training strategy to overcome these limits, yet current VLA-RL methods, including group-based optimization approaches, are crippled by severe reward sparsity. Relying on binary success indicators wastes valuable information in failed trajectories, resulting in low training efficiency. To solve this, we propose Self-Referential Policy Optimization (SRPO), a novel VLA-RL framework. SRPO eliminates the need for external demonstrations or manual reward engineering by leveraging the model's own successful trajectories, generated within the current training batch, as a self-reference. This allows us to assign a progress-wise reward to failed attempts. A core innovation is the use of latent world representations to measure behavioral progress robustly. Instead of relying on raw pixels or requiring domain-specific fine-tuning, we utilize the compressed, transferable encodings from a world model's latent space. These representations naturally capture progress patterns across environments, enabling accurate, generalized trajectory comparison. Empirical evaluations on the LIBERO benchmark demonstrate SRPO's efficiency and effectiveness. Starting from a supervised baseline with 48.9% success, SRPO achieves a new state-of-the-art success rate of 99.2% in just 200 RL steps, representing a 103% relative improvement without any extra supervision. Furthermore, SRPO shows substantial robustness, achieving a 167% performance improvement on the LIBERO-Plus benchmark.

This paper models the availability of bikes at San Francisco Bay Area Bike Share stations using machine learning algorithms. Random Forest (RF) and Least-Squares Boosting (LSBoost) were used as univariate regression algorithms, and Partial Least-Squares Regression (PLSR) was applied as a multivariate regression algorithm. The univariate models were used to model the number of available bikes at each station. PLSR was applied to reduce the number of required prediction models and reflect the spatial correlation between stations in the network. Results clearly show that univariate models have lower error predictions than the multivariate model. However, the multivariate model results are reasonable for networks with a relatively large number of spatially correlated stations. Results also show that station neighbors and the prediction horizon time are significant predictors. The most effective prediction horizon time that produced the least prediction error was 15 minutes.

Specialised pre-trained language models are becoming more frequent in NLP since they can potentially outperform models trained on generic texts. BioBERT and BioClinicalBERT are two examples of such models that have shown promise in medical NLP tasks. Many of these models are overparametrised and resource-intensive, but thanks to techniques like Knowledge Distillation (KD), it is possible to create smaller versions that perform almost as well as their larger counterparts. In this work, we specifically focus on development of compact language models for processing clinical texts (i.e. progress notes, discharge summaries etc). We developed a number of efficient lightweight clinical transformers using knowledge distillation and continual learning, with the number of parameters ranging from 15 million to 65 million. These models performed comparably to larger models such as BioBERT and ClinicalBioBERT and significantly outperformed other compact models trained on general or biomedical data. Our extensive evaluation was done across several standard datasets and covered a wide range of clinical text-mining tasks, including Natural Language Inference, Relation Extraction, Named Entity Recognition, and Sequence Classification. To our knowledge, this is the first comprehensive study specifically focused on creating efficient and compact transformers for clinical NLP tasks. The models and code used in this study can be found on our Huggingface profile at https://huggingface.co/nlpie and Github page at https://github.com/nlpie-research/Lightweight-Clinical-Transformers, respectively, promoting reproducibility of our results.

Recent progress in neural forecasting accelerated improvements in the performance of large-scale forecasting systems. Yet, long-horizon forecasting remains a very difficult task. Two common challenges afflicting the task are the volatility of the predictions and their computational complexity. We introduce N-HiTS, a model which addresses both challenges by incorporating novel hierarchical interpolation and multi-rate data sampling techniques. These techniques enable the proposed method to assemble its predictions sequentially, emphasizing components with different frequencies and scales while decomposing the input signal and synthesizing the forecast. We prove that the hierarchical interpolation technique can efficiently approximate arbitrarily long horizons in the presence of smoothness. Additionally, we conduct extensive large-scale dataset experiments from the long-horizon forecasting literature, demonstrating the advantages of our method over the state-of-the-art methods, where N-HiTS provides an average accuracy improvement of almost 20% over the latest Transformer architectures while reducing the computation time by an order of magnitude (50 times). Our code is available at bit.ly/3VA5DoT

Can a mere next-token predictor faithfully model human intelligence? We crystallize this intuitive concern, which is fragmented in the literature. As a starting point, we argue that the two often-conflated phases of next-token prediction -- autoregressive inference and teacher-forced training -- must be treated distinctly. The popular criticism that errors can compound during autoregressive inference, crucially assumes that teacher-forcing has learned an accurate next-token predictor. This assumption sidesteps a more deep-rooted problem we expose: in certain classes of tasks, teacher-forcing can simply fail to learn an accurate next-token predictor in the first place. We describe a general mechanism of how teacher-forcing can fail, and design a minimal planning task where both the Transformer and the Mamba architecture empirically fail in that manner -- remarkably, despite the task being straightforward to learn. We provide preliminary evidence that this failure can be resolved when training to predict multiple tokens in advance. We hope this finding can ground future debates and inspire explorations beyond the next-token prediction paradigm. We make our code available under https://github.com/gregorbachmann/Next-Token-Failures

In Online Continual Learning (OCL) a learning system receives a stream of data and sequentially performs prediction and training steps. Important challenges in OCL are concerned with automatic adaptation to the particular non-stationary structure of the data, and with quantification of predictive uncertainty. Motivated by these challenges we introduce a probabilistic Bayesian online learning model by using a (possibly pretrained) neural representation and a state space model over the linear predictor weights. Non-stationarity over the linear predictor weights is modelled using a parameter drift transition density, parametrized by a coefficient that quantifies forgetting. Inference in the model is implemented with efficient Kalman filter recursions which track the posterior distribution over the linear weights, while online SGD updates over the transition dynamics coefficient allows to adapt to the non-stationarity seen in data. While the framework is developed assuming a linear Gaussian model, we also extend it to deal with classification problems and for fine-tuning the deep learning representation. In a set of experiments in multi-class classification using data sets such as CIFAR-100 and CLOC we demonstrate the predictive ability of the model and its flexibility to capture non-stationarity.

Many Multi-Object Tracking (MOT) approaches exploit motion information to associate all the detected objects across frames. However, many methods that rely on filtering-based algorithms, such as the Kalman Filter, often work well in linear motion scenarios but struggle to accurately predict the locations of objects undergoing complex and non-linear movements. To tackle these scenarios, we propose a motion-based MOT approach with an enhanced temporal motion predictor, ETTrack. Specifically, the motion predictor integrates a transformer model and a Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN) to capture short-term and long-term motion patterns, and it predicts the future motion of individual objects based on the historical motion information. Additionally, we propose a novel Momentum Correction Loss function that provides additional information regarding the motion direction of objects during training. This allows the motion predictor rapidly adapt to motion variations and more accurately predict future motion. Our experimental results demonstrate that ETTrack achieves a competitive performance compared with state-of-the-art trackers on DanceTrack and SportsMOT, scoring 56.4% and 74.4% in HOTA metrics, respectively.

Research in Curriculum Learning has shown better performance on the task by optimizing the sequence of the training data. Recent works have focused on using complex reinforcement learning techniques to find the optimal data ordering strategy to maximize learning for a given network. In this paper, we present a simple yet efficient technique based on continuous optimization trained with auto-encoding procedure. We call this new approach Training Sequence Optimization (TSO). With a usual encoder-decoder setup we try to learn the latent space continuous representation of the training strategy and a predictor network is used on the continuous representation to predict the accuracy of the strategy on the fixed network architecture. The performance predictor and encoder enable us to perform gradient-based optimization by gradually moving towards the latent space representation of training data ordering with potentially better accuracy. We show an empirical gain of 2AP with our generated optimal curriculum strategy over the random strategy using the CIFAR-100 and CIFAR-10 datasets and have better boosts than the existing state-of-the-art CL algorithms.

Discovering achievements with a hierarchical structure in procedurally generated environments presents a significant challenge. This requires an agent to possess a broad range of abilities, including generalization and long-term reasoning. Many prior methods have been built upon model-based or hierarchical approaches, with the belief that an explicit module for long-term planning would be advantageous for learning hierarchical dependencies. However, these methods demand an excessive number of environment interactions or large model sizes, limiting their practicality. In this work, we demonstrate that proximal policy optimization (PPO), a simple yet versatile model-free algorithm, outperforms previous methods when optimized with recent implementation practices. Moreover, we find that the PPO agent can predict the next achievement to be unlocked to some extent, albeit with limited confidence. Based on this observation, we introduce a novel contrastive learning method, called achievement distillation, which strengthens the agent's ability to predict the next achievement. Our method exhibits a strong capacity for discovering hierarchical achievements and shows state-of-the-art performance on the challenging Crafter environment in a sample-efficient manner while utilizing fewer model parameters.

Class incremental learning (CIL) is a challenging setting of continual learning, which learns a series of tasks sequentially. Each task consists of a set of unique classes. The key feature of CIL is that no task identifier (or task-id) is provided at test time. Predicting the task-id for each test sample is a challenging problem. An emerging theory-guided approach (called TIL+OOD) is to train a task-specific model for each task in a shared network for all tasks based on a task-incremental learning (TIL) method to deal with catastrophic forgetting. The model for each task is an out-of-distribution (OOD) detector rather than a conventional classifier. The OOD detector can perform both within-task (in-distribution (IND)) class prediction and OOD detection. The OOD detection capability is the key to task-id prediction during inference. However, this paper argues that using a traditional OOD detector for task-id prediction is sub-optimal because additional information (e.g., the replay data and the learned tasks) available in CIL can be exploited to design a better and principled method for task-id prediction. We call the new method TPL (Task-id Prediction based on Likelihood Ratio). TPL markedly outperforms strong CIL baselines and has negligible catastrophic forgetting. The code of TPL is publicly available at https://github.com/linhaowei1/TPL.

The impact of person-job fit on job satisfaction and performance is widely acknowledged, which highlights the importance of providing workers with next steps at the right time in their career. This task of predicting the next step in a career is known as career path prediction, and has diverse applications such as turnover prevention and internal job mobility. Existing methods to career path prediction rely on large amounts of private career history data to model the interactions between job titles and companies. We propose leveraging the unexplored textual descriptions that are part of work experience sections in resumes. We introduce a structured dataset of 2,164 anonymized career histories, annotated with ESCO occupation labels. Based on this dataset, we present a novel representation learning approach, CareerBERT, specifically designed for work history data. We develop a skill-based model and a text-based model for career path prediction, which achieve 35.24% and 39.61% recall@10 respectively on our dataset. Finally, we show that both approaches are complementary as a hybrid approach achieves the strongest result with 43.01% recall@10.

Training a model to predict the next step in a concurrent program is harder than it looks: two runs of the same program from the same trace prefix can produce different next events, both valid, because the scheduler is nondeterministic. A model trained against a single label is learning to guess one outcome of a random process. We turn this around and use the nondeterminism as a training signal. We run each program many times, aggregate the observed next events into an empirical distribution, and fine-tune a 7B model to match that distribution with a KL objective. On 798 held-out predictions drawn from real production Go bugs (CockroachDB, Kubernetes, gRPC, etcd), fine-tuning on fewer than a thousand traces reaches 36.2% accuracy, ahead of Gemini 3.5 Flash used zero-shot (34.8%) and the same model without fine-tuning (28.6%). Distribution training matches cross-entropy on accuracy (35.8% vs. 36.2%) while reducing Expected Calibration Error from 0.205 to 0.169. We also derive a formal goroutine-leak signature for a class of select-blocked goroutines where P(GoUnblock)=0 holds by scheduler semantics, not by learning. We release the dataset, trained adapters, and all tooling.

The growing popularity of data mining catalyses the researchers to explore various exciting aspects of education. Early prediction of student performance is an emerging area among them. The researchers have used various predictors in performance modelling studies. Although prior cognition can affect student performance, establishing their relationship is still an open research challenge. Quantifying the knowledge from readily available data is the major challenge here. We have proposed a semantic approach for this purpose. Association mining on nearly 0.35 million observations establishes that prior cognition impacts the student performance. The proposed approach of measuring domain knowledge can help the early performance modelling studies to use it as a predictor.

Generative models trained using self-supervision of tokenized electronic health record (EHR) timelines show promise for clinical outcome prediction. This is typically done using Monte Carlo simulation for future patient trajectories. However, existing approaches suffer from three key limitations: sparse estimate distributions that poorly differentiate patient risk levels, extreme computational costs, and high sampling variance. We propose two new estimators: the Sum of Conditional Outcome Probability Estimator (SCOPE) and Risk Estimation from Anticipated Conditional Hazards (REACH), that leverage next-token probability distributions discarded by standard Monte Carlo. We prove both estimators are unbiased and that REACH guarantees variance reduction over Monte Carlo sampling for any model and outcome. Empirically, on hospital mortality prediction in MIMIC-IV using the ETHOS-ARES framework, SCOPE and REACH match 100-sample Monte Carlo performance using only 10-11 samples (95% CI: [9,11]), representing a ~10x reduction in inference cost without degrading calibration. For ICU admission prediction, efficiency gains are more modest (~1.2x), which we attribute to the outcome's lower "spontaneity," a property we characterize theoretically and empirically. These methods substantially improve the feasibility of deploying generative EHR models in resource-constrained clinical settings.

While traditional machine learning can effectively tackle a wide range of problems, it primarily operates within a closed-world setting, which presents limitations when dealing with streaming data. As a solution, incremental learning emerges to address real-world scenarios involving new data's arrival. Recently, pre-training has made significant advancements and garnered the attention of numerous researchers. The strong performance of these pre-trained models (PTMs) presents a promising avenue for developing continual learning algorithms that can effectively adapt to real-world scenarios. Consequently, exploring the utilization of PTMs in incremental learning has become essential. This paper introduces a pre-trained model-based continual learning toolbox known as PILOT. On the one hand, PILOT implements some state-of-the-art class-incremental learning algorithms based on pre-trained models, such as L2P, DualPrompt, and CODA-Prompt. On the other hand, PILOT also fits typical class-incremental learning algorithms (e.g., DER, FOSTER, and MEMO) within the context of pre-trained models to evaluate their effectiveness.

A crucial step within secondary analysis of electronic health records (EHRs) is to identify the patient cohort under investigation. While EHRs contain medical billing codes that aim to represent the conditions and treatments patients may have, much of the information is only present in the patient notes. Therefore, it is critical to develop robust algorithms to infer patients' conditions and treatments from their written notes. In this paper, we introduce a dataset for patient phenotyping, a task that is defined as the identification of whether a patient has a given medical condition (also referred to as clinical indication or phenotype) based on their patient note. Nursing Progress Notes and Discharge Summaries from the Intensive Care Unit of a large tertiary care hospital were manually annotated for the presence of several high-context phenotypes relevant to treatment and risk of re-hospitalization. This dataset contains 1102 Discharge Summaries and 1000 Nursing Progress Notes. Each Discharge Summary and Progress Note has been annotated by at least two expert human annotators (one clinical researcher and one resident physician). Annotated phenotypes include treatment non-adherence, chronic pain, advanced/metastatic cancer, as well as 10 other phenotypes. This dataset can be utilized for academic and industrial research in medicine and computer science, particularly within the field of medical natural language processing.

Large Language Models have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in code generation, yet they often struggle with complex programming tasks that require deep algorithmic reasoning. While process supervision through learned reward models shows promise in guiding reasoning steps, it requires expensive training data and suffers from unreliable evaluation. We propose Outcome-Refining Process Supervision, a novel paradigm that treats outcome refinement itself as the process to be supervised. Our framework leverages concrete execution signals to ground the supervision of reasoning steps, while using tree-structured exploration to maintain multiple solution trajectories simultaneously. Experiments demonstrate that our approach enables even smaller models to achieve high success accuracy and performance metrics on competitive programming tasks, creates more reliable verification than traditional reward models without requiring training PRMs. Our approach achieves significant improvements across 5 models and 3 datasets: an average of 26.9% increase in correctness and 42.2% in efficiency. The results suggest that providing structured reasoning space with concrete verification signals is crucial for solving complex programming tasks. We open-source all our code and data at: https://github.com/zhuohaoyu/ORPS

Trajectory prediction models often fail in real-world automated driving due to distributional shifts between training and test conditions. Such distributional shifts, whether behavioural or environmental, pose a critical risk by causing the model to make incorrect forecasts in unfamiliar situations. We propose a self-supervised method that trains a decoder in a post-hoc fashion on the self-supervised task of forecasting the second half of observed trajectories from the first half. The L2 norm of the gradient of this forecasting loss with respect to the decoder's final layer defines a score to identify distribution shifts. Our approach, first, does not affect the trajectory prediction model, ensuring no interference with original prediction performance and second, demonstrates substantial improvements on distribution shift detection for trajectory prediction on the Shifts and Argoverse datasets. Moreover, we show that this method can also be used to early detect collisions of a deep Q-Network motion planner in the Highway simulator. Source code is available at https://github.com/Michedev/forecasting-the-past.

Accelerating scientific discovery requires the identification of which experiments would yield the best outcomes before committing resources to costly physical validation. While existing benchmarks evaluate LLMs on scientific knowledge and reasoning, their ability to predict experimental outcomes - a task where AI could significantly exceed human capabilities - remains largely underexplored. We introduce SciPredict, a benchmark comprising 405 tasks derived from recent empirical studies in 33 specialized sub-fields of physics, biology, and chemistry. SciPredict addresses two critical questions: (a) can LLMs predict the outcome of scientific experiments with sufficient accuracy? and (b) can such predictions be reliably used in the scientific research process? Evaluations reveal fundamental limitations on both fronts. Model accuracies are 14-26% and human expert performance is approx20%. Although some frontier models exceed human performance model accuracy is still far below what would enable reliable experimental guidance. Even within the limited performance, models fail to distinguish reliable predictions from unreliable ones, achieving only approx20% accuracy regardless of their confidence or whether they judge outcomes as predictable without physical experimentation. Human experts, in contrast, demonstrate strong calibration: their accuracy increases from approx5% to approx80% as they deem outcomes more predictable without conducting the experiment. SciPredict establishes a rigorous framework demonstrating that superhuman performance in experimental science requires not just better predictions, but better awareness of prediction reliability. For reproducibility all our data and code are provided at https://github.com/scaleapi/scipredict

State-of-the-art models in NLP are now predominantly based on deep neural networks that are opaque in terms of how they come to make predictions. This limitation has increased interest in designing more interpretable deep models for NLP that reveal the `reasoning' behind model outputs. But work in this direction has been conducted on different datasets and tasks with correspondingly unique aims and metrics; this makes it difficult to track progress. We propose the Evaluating Rationales And Simple English Reasoning (ERASER) benchmark to advance research on interpretable models in NLP. This benchmark comprises multiple datasets and tasks for which human annotations of "rationales" (supporting evidence) have been collected. We propose several metrics that aim to capture how well the rationales provided by models align with human rationales, and also how faithful these rationales are (i.e., the degree to which provided rationales influenced the corresponding predictions). Our hope is that releasing this benchmark facilitates progress on designing more interpretable NLP systems. The benchmark, code, and documentation are available at https://www.eraserbenchmark.com/

Many empirical studies of labor market questions rely on estimating relatively simple predictive models using small, carefully constructed longitudinal survey datasets based on hand-engineered features. Large Language Models (LLMs), trained on massive datasets, encode vast quantities of world knowledge and can be used for the next job prediction problem. However, while an off-the-shelf LLM produces plausible career trajectories when prompted, the probability with which an LLM predicts a particular job transition conditional on career history will not, in general, align with the true conditional probability in a given population. Recently, Vafa et al. (2024) introduced a transformer-based "foundation model", CAREER, trained using a large, unrepresentative resume dataset, that predicts transitions between jobs; it further demonstrated how transfer learning techniques can be used to leverage the foundation model to build better predictive models of both transitions and wages that reflect conditional transition probabilities found in nationally representative survey datasets. This paper considers an alternative where the fine-tuning of the CAREER foundation model is replaced by fine-tuning LLMs. For the task of next job prediction, we demonstrate that models trained with our approach outperform several alternatives in terms of predictive performance on the survey data, including traditional econometric models, CAREER, and LLMs with in-context learning, even though the LLM can in principle predict job titles that are not allowed in the survey data. Further, we show that our fine-tuned LLM-based models' predictions are more representative of the career trajectories of various workforce subpopulations than off-the-shelf LLM models and CAREER. We conduct experiments and analyses that highlight the sources of the gains in the performance of our models for representative predictions.

With the success of pretraining techniques in representation learning, a number of continual learning methods based on pretrained models have been proposed. Some of these methods design continual learning mechanisms on the pre-trained representations and only allow minimum updates or even no updates of the backbone models during the training of continual learning. In this paper, we question whether the complexity of these models is needed to achieve good performance by comparing them to a simple baseline that we designed. We argue that the pretrained feature extractor itself can be strong enough to achieve a competitive or even better continual learning performance on Split-CIFAR100 and CoRe 50 benchmarks. To validate this, we conduct a very simple baseline that 1) use the frozen pretrained model to extract image features for every class encountered during the continual learning stage and compute their corresponding mean features on training data, and 2) predict the class of the input based on the nearest neighbor distance between test samples and mean features of the classes; i.e., Nearest Mean Classifier (NMC). This baseline is single-headed, exemplar-free, and can be task-free (by updating the means continually). This baseline achieved 88.53% on 10-Split-CIFAR-100, surpassing most state-of-the-art continual learning methods that are all initialized using the same pretrained transformer model. We hope our baseline may encourage future progress in designing learning systems that can continually add quality to the learning representations even if they started from some pretrained weights.

Methods for neural network hyperparameter optimization and meta-modeling are computationally expensive due to the need to train a large number of model configurations. In this paper, we show that standard frequentist regression models can predict the final performance of partially trained model configurations using features based on network architectures, hyperparameters, and time-series validation performance data. We empirically show that our performance prediction models are much more effective than prominent Bayesian counterparts, are simpler to implement, and are faster to train. Our models can predict final performance in both visual classification and language modeling domains, are effective for predicting performance of drastically varying model architectures, and can even generalize between model classes. Using these prediction models, we also propose an early stopping method for hyperparameter optimization and meta-modeling, which obtains a speedup of a factor up to 6x in both hyperparameter optimization and meta-modeling. Finally, we empirically show that our early stopping method can be seamlessly incorporated into both reinforcement learning-based architecture selection algorithms and bandit based search methods. Through extensive experimentation, we empirically show our performance prediction models and early stopping algorithm are state-of-the-art in terms of prediction accuracy and speedup achieved while still identifying the optimal model configurations.

Agentic reinforcement learning requires assigning credit to environment-facing actions such as searches, clicks, edits, navigation commands, and object interactions. Standard GRPO uses the final verifier outcome as a uniform advantage over all action tokens. This outcome signal is useful but structurally incomplete: it punishes useful exploration in failed rollouts and reinforces redundant or regressive actions in successful rollouts. We propose TRIAGE, a role-typed credit assignment framework that adds a semantic role axis to outcome credit. A structured judge classifies each segment as decisive progress, useful exploration, no-progress infrastructure, or regression, and a fixed role-conditioned rule maps these labels to bounded segment-level process rewards. This keeps verifier outcomes as the source of optimization direction while correcting the two main blind spots of outcome-only credit. We further show that role-conditioned credit is the optimal segment-level correction expressible from role labels alone -- a projection of the per-segment advantage residual onto the role variable -- so that the fixed role constants reduce advantage estimation error whenever the judge is reliable, and we connect this to lower-variance policy gradients. Across ALFWorld, Search-QA, and WebShop, TRIAGE improves success rates over GRPO for two policy models and outperforms both a scalar judge-derived process reward and an outcome-supervised shared-backbone value baseline. Ablations show that the gain comes from role typing rather than merely adding dense rewards: reliable detection of regression inside successful trajectories is the dominant contributor, while exploration credit provides a consistent secondary gain; on completed ALFWorld and WebShop rollouts, TRIAGE also reduces environment-facing turns by an additional 10.4% and 14.8% relative to GRPO.

Web agents hold great potential for automating complex computer tasks, yet their interactions involve long-horizon, sequential decision-making with irreversible actions. In such settings, outcome-based supervision is sparse and delayed, often rewarding incorrect trajectories and failing to support inference-time scaling. This motivates the use of Process Reward Models (WebPRMs) for web navigation, but existing approaches remain limited: scalar WebPRMs collapse progress into coarse, weakly grounded signals, while checklist-based WebPRMs rely on brittle template matching that fails under layout or semantic changes and often mislabels superficially correct actions as successful, providing little insight or interpretability. To address these challenges, we introduce WebArbiter, a reasoning-first, principle-inducing WebPRM that formulates reward modeling as text generation, producing structured justifications that conclude with a preference verdict and identify the action most conducive to task completion under the current context. Training follows a two-stage pipeline: reasoning distillation equips the model with coherent principle-guided reasoning, and reinforcement learning corrects teacher biases by directly aligning verdicts with correctness, enabling stronger generalization. To support systematic evaluation, we release WebPRMBench, a comprehensive benchmark spanning four diverse web environments with rich tasks and high-quality preference annotations. On WebPRMBench, WebArbiter-7B outperforms the strongest baseline, GPT-5, by 9.1 points. In reward-guided trajectory search on WebArena-Lite, it surpasses the best prior WebPRM by up to 7.2 points, underscoring its robustness and practical value in real-world complex web tasks.

Designing dense rewards is crucial for reinforcement learning (RL), yet in robotics it often demands extensive manual effort and lacks scalability. One promising solution is to view task progress as a dense reward signal, as it quantifies the degree to which actions advance the system toward task completion over time. We present TimeRewarder, a simple yet effective reward learning method that derives progress estimation signals from passive videos, including robot demonstrations and human videos, by modeling temporal distances between frame pairs. We then demonstrate how TimeRewarder can supply step-wise proxy rewards to guide reinforcement learning. In our comprehensive experiments on ten challenging Meta-World tasks, we show that TimeRewarder dramatically improves RL for sparse-reward tasks, achieving nearly perfect success in 9/10 tasks with only 200,000 environment interactions per task. This approach outperformed previous methods and even the manually designed environment dense reward on both the final success rate and sample efficiency. Moreover, we show that TimeRewarder pretraining can exploit real-world human videos, highlighting its potential as a scalable approach to rich reward signals from diverse video sources.

Under standard graphical assumptions, the Markov boundary of a target variable is the smallest set of features that renders every other feature redundant. Once the boundary is observed, the target is conditionally independent of the rest of the table. This is a tempting object for tabular prediction, since it names exactly the columns a model should need. Yet modern regressors are still trained on the full feature set. We ask whether the Markov boundary is genuinely useful for prediction on SCM3K, a 3,450-task synthetic SCM benchmark with feature counts from 40 to 1000 and six SCM families, evaluated with six regressors. The answer is more nuanced than the theory suggests. Restricting a regressor to the oracle boundary often improves prediction substantially, and the improvement grows as the feature space becomes larger and sparser. But the natural pipeline of recovering the boundary with causal discovery and training on the recovered mask does not deliver. Existing estimators exhaust the compute budget before reaching the regime where the boundary helps most, and even where they run they rarely beat the full feature set. We trace this to three causes. Discovery optimizes structural recovery rather than prediction. False negatives and false positives carry sharply asymmetric predictive cost. The exact boundary is only one of many feature sets that beat all features. We then develop what these facts imply for prediction-aligned feature selection and for tabular models that learn to use causal structure.