Can Video World Models Track Unobserved World States?

Video world models are increasingly used as simulators, yet visual fidelity alone does not show that a model maintains the hidden state of the world. We examine this gap with an action-conditioned video Shell Game, a visual analog of S_5 state tracking that decouples visual rendering from compositing the hidden state underneath. Bidirectional and autoregressive Transformers, Mamba, and linear attention restricted to nonnegative transition eigenvalues all fit the training horizon of 5 swaps and then fall toward chance on longer swap chains (extrapolation) while still rendering plausible video with additional denoising steps providing no benefit. The pixel-based diffusion target never supervises the unseen hidden state, so the generated frames cannot carry it and the state has to live inside the architecture rather than in the tokens. For a Transformer, that architectural state is only an append-only KV cache, so the model has to re-derive the hidden arrangement from the whole history at every chunk. We find two mechanisms that do extrapolate, and both carry a state across chunks and revise it in place. Linear attention succeeds once its transition eigenvalues may be negative, and TTT with a nonlinear fast weight succeeds by updating the feature map through which it reads its own state. We further examine harder cases in dynamic world exploration tasks, and discuss the broader implications for building stateful video world models.