Rethinking Evaluation in the Era of Time Series Foundation Models: (Un)known Information Leakage Challenges

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) represent a new paradigm for time-series forecasting, promising zero-shot predictions without the need for task-specific training or fine-tuning. However, similar to Large Language Models (LLMs), the evaluation of TSFMs is challenging: as training corpora grow increasingly large, it becomes difficult to ensure the integrity of the test sets used for benchmarking. An investigation of existing TSFM evaluation studies identifies two kinds of information leakage: (1) train-test sample overlaps arising from the multi-purpose reuse of datasets and (2) temporal overlap of correlated train and test series. Ignoring these forms of information leakage when benchmarking TSFMs risks producing overly optimistic performance estimates that fail to generalize to real-world settings. We therefore argue for the development of novel evaluation methodologies that avoid pitfalls already observed in both LLM and classical time-series benchmarking, and we call on the research community to adopt principled approaches to safeguard the integrity of TSFM evaluation.