transcripts/3jtSEeDiYvE.json

[{"text": "[SQUEAKING]", "start": 0.0, "duration": 2.44}, {"text": "[RUSTLING]", "start": 2.44, "duration": 1.952}, {"text": "[CLICKING]", "start": 4.392, "duration": 0.976}, {"text": "DAVID HSU: Hi, everyone,\nand welcome back to the MIT", "start": 10.74, "duration": 3.0}, {"text": "class on urban energy systems.", "start": 13.74, "duration": 2.23}, {"text": "Wherever you're seeing this\nlecture, please subscribe.", "start": 15.97, "duration": 3.21}, {"text": "You can either find\nit on the web page", "start": 19.18, "duration": 2.0}, {"text": "where you found this video\nor ask the instructor.", "start": 21.18, "duration": 4.48}, {"text": "So let's get back to\nthe topic for today,", "start": 25.66, "duration": 3.96}, {"text": "which is going to be\ncities and decarbonization.", "start": 29.62, "duration": 3.23}, {"text": "What is the role of cities?", "start": 32.85, "duration": 2.22}, {"text": "Again, I'm David\nHsu, and if you're", "start": 35.07, "duration": 2.94}, {"text": "thinking about how\ncities can take action", "start": 38.01, "duration": 3.33}, {"text": "or what their role is\nin decarbonization,", "start": 41.34, "duration": 2.01}, {"text": "you have found the right\nplace and your people.", "start": 43.35, "duration": 3.75}, {"text": "So I want to cover just\nbriefly how you're going", "start": 47.1, "duration": 2.67}, {"text": "to prepare for class this week.", "start": 49.77, "duration": 1.38}, {"text": "This is our second class.", "start": 51.15, "duration": 1.27}, {"text": "I want to make sure that\neveryone's caught up.", "start": 52.42, "duration": 2.75}, {"text": "First, the introductory\nreading from last week", "start": 55.17, "duration": 2.52}, {"text": "is fairly short and scalable.", "start": 57.69, "duration": 1.93}, {"text": "So it's easy to catch up,\nbut you should catch up.", "start": 59.62, "duration": 3.03}, {"text": "And it's particularly important\nto look at MacKay chapter 2.", "start": 62.65, "duration": 4.46}, {"text": "Again, it's MacKay chapter 2.", "start": 67.11, "duration": 2.962}, {"text": "There's the initial problem\nset due Monday night.", "start": 70.072, "duration": 3.128}, {"text": "You can just access\nthe problem set", "start": 73.2, "duration": 2.28}, {"text": "by going directly to this Google\nform, the link on the screen.", "start": 75.48, "duration": 4.585}, {"text": "You should do the\nreading for this week", "start": 80.065, "duration": 1.625}, {"text": "that's on the syllabus.", "start": 81.69, "duration": 1.14}, {"text": "I also show the reading for\nthis week on the next page.", "start": 82.83, "duration": 3.51}, {"text": "And then you should watch the\nrest of this video lecture.", "start": 86.34, "duration": 2.97}, {"text": "And during the reading and while\nwatching the video lecture,", "start": 89.31, "duration": 2.957}, {"text": "it's important for you to\nwrite down the questions", "start": 92.267, "duration": 2.083}, {"text": "that you have for discussion.", "start": 94.35, "duration": 1.443}, {"text": "And then I want you to\nfeel free to share them", "start": 95.793, "duration": 1.917}, {"text": "on Slack, whenever,\nasynchronously, or in our class", "start": 97.71, "duration": 3.51}, {"text": "meeting on Tuesday.", "start": 101.22, "duration": 3.05}, {"text": "So the material for today--", "start": 104.27, "duration": 1.44}, {"text": "again, I won't go over them.", "start": 105.71, "duration": 1.17}, {"text": "These are all in your syllabus.", "start": 106.88, "duration": 1.26}, {"text": "But these will also\nbe in the slides,", "start": 108.14, "duration": 1.542}, {"text": "so you can follow the links.", "start": 109.682, "duration": 1.478}, {"text": "The first four readings\nare the required readings,", "start": 111.16, "duration": 4.716}, {"text": "a kind of gathering of\nvery different readings.", "start": 115.876, "duration": 3.774}, {"text": "And the last two readings\nare optional readings", "start": 119.65, "duration": 2.4}, {"text": "that give additional information\nto the articles above.", "start": 122.05, "duration": 5.65}, {"text": "So what I want to start\nwith is MacKay chapter 2,", "start": 127.7, "duration": 2.719}, {"text": "what he calls the\nbalance sheet, and it's", "start": 130.419, "duration": 2.216}, {"text": "an important set\nof concepts simply", "start": 132.635, "duration": 2.255}, {"text": "so we can think about\nthe energy system.", "start": 134.89, "duration": 2.61}, {"text": "And very simply, what MacKay\nis trying to do in his book", "start": 137.5, "duration": 3.36}, {"text": "is contrast these\nred and green bars.", "start": 140.86, "duration": 3.51}, {"text": "Energy consumption is\non the left and red,", "start": 144.37, "duration": 3.06}, {"text": "and energy production is\non the right in green.", "start": 147.43, "duration": 2.71}, {"text": "And so when MacKay\ntitles his book", "start": 150.14, "duration": 2.42}, {"text": "Sustainable Energy--\nwithout the hot air, what", "start": 152.56, "duration": 2.37}, {"text": "we're trying to do is\nreplace our current level", "start": 154.93, "duration": 2.76}, {"text": "of consumption with entirely\nrenewable resources,", "start": 157.69, "duration": 3.253}, {"text": "and that's how we're going to\nachieve a sustainable energy", "start": 160.943, "duration": 2.417}, {"text": "system.", "start": 163.36, "duration": 1.12}, {"text": "And so a sustainable\nenergy system", "start": 164.48, "duration": 3.02}, {"text": "would be if our total\nconceivable sustainable", "start": 167.5, "duration": 2.76}, {"text": "production sources,\non the right,", "start": 170.26, "duration": 2.01}, {"text": "are greater than our\ntotal consumption.", "start": 172.27, "duration": 2.52}, {"text": "And an unsustainable\nenergy system", "start": 174.79, "duration": 2.07}, {"text": "would be where our total\nconsumption of energy", "start": 176.86, "duration": 2.61}, {"text": "is larger than our total\nconceivable sustainable", "start": 179.47, "duration": 2.52}, {"text": "production.", "start": 181.99, "duration": 0.79}, {"text": "And, of course, these\ntwo bars will change over", "start": 182.78, "duration": 2.27}, {"text": "time as our expectations\naround consumption change", "start": 185.05, "duration": 4.05}, {"text": "and our technologies\nand our institutions", "start": 189.1, "duration": 3.54}, {"text": "and our markets for\nsustainable production change.", "start": 192.64, "duration": 2.25}, {"text": "But that's the challenge.", "start": 194.89, "duration": 1.29}, {"text": "The challenge is to try to\nput these two in balance", "start": 196.18, "duration": 2.67}, {"text": "and at least have total\nsustainable production that", "start": 198.85, "duration": 2.7}, {"text": "is enough to meet all\nof our societal needs,", "start": 201.55, "duration": 3.24}, {"text": "or our global societal needs,\nfor energy consumption.", "start": 204.79, "duration": 3.93}, {"text": "And so what that might look like\nis the key forms of consumption", "start": 208.72, "duration": 3.9}, {"text": "on the left-hand stack in red--", "start": 212.62, "duration": 2.4}, {"text": "that is the energy we need\nfor transportation, including", "start": 215.02, "duration": 3.09}, {"text": "cars, planes, and freight.", "start": 218.11, "duration": 2.25}, {"text": "It's the energy we\nneed to heat and cool", "start": 220.36, "duration": 1.95}, {"text": "the spaces that we live in.", "start": 222.31, "duration": 1.53}, {"text": "That can wildly differ\nacross countries.", "start": 223.84, "duration": 2.58}, {"text": "It's a basic need for lighting\nso we can see at night.", "start": 226.42, "duration": 3.72}, {"text": "It's a growing need for\nenergy for information systems", "start": 230.14, "duration": 3.39}, {"text": "and our other gadgets.", "start": 233.53, "duration": 2.64}, {"text": "The fifth point, food--", "start": 236.17, "duration": 1.83}, {"text": "a tremendous amount\nof energy goes", "start": 238.0, "duration": 1.83}, {"text": "into growing and transporting\nand keeping our food cold.", "start": 239.83, "duration": 5.7}, {"text": "And, finally, the\nmanufacturing--", "start": 245.53, "duration": 2.04}, {"text": "for all the technologies\nor all the gadgets", "start": 247.57, "duration": 2.49}, {"text": "we need to do transportation\nor heating and cooling,", "start": 250.06, "duration": 3.09}, {"text": "like information\nsystems and food,", "start": 253.15, "duration": 1.68}, {"text": "we have to make these\nthings in the first place,", "start": 254.83, "duration": 2.324}, {"text": "and that requires a\ntremendous amount of energy.", "start": 257.154, "duration": 2.925}, {"text": "On the right-hand side, our\nsustainable production stack", "start": 260.079, "duration": 3.151}, {"text": "has a number of categories.", "start": 263.23, "duration": 1.63}, {"text": "The good thing is-- and I'll try\nto emphasize this in the class", "start": 264.86, "duration": 2.9}, {"text": "repeatedly-- is that we have\nmany sustainable technologies", "start": 267.76, "duration": 4.32}, {"text": "that can produce energy.", "start": 272.08, "duration": 1.87}, {"text": "We have wind and solar.", "start": 273.95, "duration": 2.21}, {"text": "Solar energy can be\nharnessed in the form", "start": 276.16, "duration": 2.07}, {"text": "of photovoltaic or solar cells\nthat produce electricity.", "start": 278.23, "duration": 4.2}, {"text": "We can harness solar energy\nthrough thermal energy,", "start": 282.43, "duration": 3.255}, {"text": "and we can also harness\nsolar energy through biomass,", "start": 285.685, "duration": 3.195}, {"text": "by harvesting the\npotential of the Earth", "start": 288.88, "duration": 2.58}, {"text": "to engage in\nphotosynthesis, create crops", "start": 291.46, "duration": 2.52}, {"text": "that we then can use\nfor other things,", "start": 293.98, "duration": 2.53}, {"text": "including burning in engines.", "start": 296.51, "duration": 3.38}, {"text": "Hydroelectric power is producing\nelectricity directly from--", "start": 299.89, "duration": 4.02}, {"text": "or mechanical storage\ndirectly from-- hydropower.", "start": 303.91, "duration": 4.14}, {"text": "Wave energy and tide energy\nare two sources of energy", "start": 308.05, "duration": 3.54}, {"text": "that come from the Earth\non a regular basis.", "start": 311.59, "duration": 4.41}, {"text": "Geothermal energy also\ncomes from the Earth.", "start": 316.0, "duration": 2.91}, {"text": "The heat inside the Earth can\nbe harnessed to produce energy.", "start": 318.91, "duration": 3.15}, {"text": "And finally, nuclear, And MacKay\nputs it with a question mark", "start": 322.06, "duration": 3.708}, {"text": "because it's not\nclear whether or not", "start": 325.768, "duration": 1.542}, {"text": "nuclear energy or nuclear\npower counts as sustainable.", "start": 327.31, "duration": 2.94}, {"text": "It is low carbon, but as I\nsaid in an earlier class,", "start": 330.25, "duration": 3.99}, {"text": "we have questions\nabout how do we handle", "start": 334.24, "duration": 2.79}, {"text": "the fuel for nuclear\npower plants,", "start": 337.03, "duration": 3.01}, {"text": "how do we handle the waste\nfrom nuclear power plants,", "start": 340.04, "duration": 2.21}, {"text": "and whether or not\nthat will be fully", "start": 342.25, "duration": 1.65}, {"text": "sustainable in the long run.", "start": 343.9, "duration": 3.06}, {"text": "And so I want to cover two\nphysical concepts from MacKay", "start": 346.96, "duration": 2.6}, {"text": "chapter 2 that I\nthink are basically", "start": 349.56, "duration": 2.31}, {"text": "going to be the most important\nphysical concepts you", "start": 351.87, "duration": 2.79}, {"text": "need to understand this class.", "start": 354.66, "duration": 2.28}, {"text": "And the first one,\nquite simply, is energy.", "start": 356.94, "duration": 2.85}, {"text": "It's the quantitative\nproperty of doing work.", "start": 359.79, "duration": 3.97}, {"text": "Energy can be neither\ndestroyed nor created,", "start": 363.76, "duration": 2.97}, {"text": "one of our fundamental\nlaws of thermodynamics.", "start": 366.73, "duration": 3.75}, {"text": "Energy can be transformed into\nlight, heat, or mass, hence", "start": 370.48, "duration": 4.74}, {"text": "the famous equation by\nEinstein, E equals mc squared,", "start": 375.22, "duration": 4.65}, {"text": "energy equals mass times\nof speed of light squared.", "start": 379.87, "duration": 3.63}, {"text": "This is a fundamental\nfinding out of relativity.", "start": 383.5, "duration": 3.61}, {"text": "And, of course, energy can\ntake many different forms.", "start": 387.11, "duration": 3.07}, {"text": "And we use it in many different\nforms in our energy system.", "start": 390.18, "duration": 2.9}, {"text": "Energy can be kinetic.", "start": 393.08, "duration": 1.68}, {"text": "It can be chemical.", "start": 394.76, "duration": 1.68}, {"text": "We can have potential energy.", "start": 396.44, "duration": 1.65}, {"text": "We have mechanical\nenergy, let's say,", "start": 398.09, "duration": 1.74}, {"text": "stored in the elastic\nproperties of materials", "start": 399.83, "duration": 2.49}, {"text": "and, of course, biological\nenergy, which is fundamentally", "start": 402.32, "duration": 3.21}, {"text": "chemical energy, but\nwe have different modes", "start": 405.53, "duration": 2.46}, {"text": "of perhaps using that chemical\nenergy in our muscles,", "start": 407.99, "duration": 2.88}, {"text": "in animals, in ecosystems.", "start": 410.87, "duration": 2.96}, {"text": "And we're going to\nmeasure energy in terms", "start": 413.83, "duration": 1.75}, {"text": "of units of kilowatt-hours.", "start": 415.58, "duration": 1.98}, {"text": "You'll see energy referred to in\nterms of British Thermal Units,", "start": 417.56, "duration": 3.66}, {"text": "BTUs, something only used\nin the US and America", "start": 421.22, "duration": 3.87}, {"text": "or the United States.", "start": 425.09, "duration": 1.32}, {"text": "Therms, joules, calories,\nare all units for energy.", "start": 426.41, "duration": 3.99}, {"text": "They can all be converted\nto kilowatt-hours.", "start": 430.4, "duration": 2.82}, {"text": "A specific category I just\nwant to highlight below", "start": 433.22, "duration": 2.79}, {"text": "is fossil fuels are sometimes\nmeasured in barrels of oil,", "start": 436.01, "duration": 4.26}, {"text": "short tons of coal, cubic\nfeet of natural gas.", "start": 440.27, "duration": 3.21}, {"text": "That's because\nthat's how we measure", "start": 443.48, "duration": 1.5}, {"text": "the things we trade\nin commodity markets", "start": 444.98, "duration": 2.28}, {"text": "for commoditized fossil fuels.", "start": 447.26, "duration": 2.16}, {"text": "But, again, the amount of\nenergy in a barrel of oil", "start": 449.42, "duration": 3.06}, {"text": "and a short ton of coal and\ncubic foot of natural gas", "start": 452.48, "duration": 3.48}, {"text": "can be converted\nto kilowatt-hours.", "start": 455.96, "duration": 3.08}, {"text": "So just to give you a\nfew examples, example 1,", "start": 459.04, "duration": 2.75}, {"text": "you may have had the\nfrustrating experience", "start": 461.79, "duration": 2.25}, {"text": "of having gone to\nthe gym, foolishly", "start": 464.04, "duration": 3.15}, {"text": "counting your calories,\nrealizing you worked out", "start": 467.19, "duration": 2.7}, {"text": "for an hour on a\nrunning treadmill,", "start": 469.89, "duration": 1.85}, {"text": "and it's only equivalent\nto three Oreos.", "start": 471.74, "duration": 2.8}, {"text": "You can also look at example 2.", "start": 474.54, "duration": 1.98}, {"text": "The average American household\nuses per year about 11,000", "start": 476.52, "duration": 3.72}, {"text": "kilowatt hours in electricity.", "start": 480.24, "duration": 2.31}, {"text": "Each person uses 300\nmillion BTUs total", "start": 482.55, "duration": 4.5}, {"text": "per year, which is approximately\n2.3 gallons of oil,", "start": 487.05, "duration": 4.35}, {"text": "7.89 pounds of coal,\nand 252 cubic feet", "start": 491.4, "duration": 3.9}, {"text": "of natural gas per day.", "start": 495.3, "duration": 2.195}, {"text": "Now, it's just\nworth pointing out", "start": 497.495, "duration": 1.375}, {"text": "that the first example, in\nterms of the American household,", "start": 498.87, "duration": 3.06}, {"text": "is in kilowatt-hours but\nonly counts for electricity.", "start": 501.93, "duration": 3.6}, {"text": "That's for the whole\nhousehold per year.", "start": 505.53, "duration": 2.35}, {"text": "The second sentence\nmeasures each person", "start": 507.88, "duration": 2.33}, {"text": "on a per-capita basis but then\nbreaks the millions of BTUs", "start": 510.21, "duration": 5.04}, {"text": "into different units because\nof the different sources", "start": 515.25, "duration": 3.0}, {"text": "of energy.", "start": 518.25, "duration": 0.909}, {"text": "And this is to say that,\nwhen we do these comparisons,", "start": 519.159, "duration": 2.811}, {"text": "we want to be careful\nabout the units we use,", "start": 521.97, "duration": 2.43}, {"text": "the averaging over time,\nand the sources of energy,", "start": 524.4, "duration": 3.21}, {"text": "because the original\nsource of energy", "start": 527.61, "duration": 2.22}, {"text": "may not actually be how much\nenergy we use in the end.", "start": 529.83, "duration": 2.95}, {"text": "And we'll talk about that\nmore in a few slides.", "start": 532.78, "duration": 4.07}, {"text": "Another key physical concept\nwe have to talk about", "start": 536.85, "duration": 2.42}, {"text": "or will be very useful\nis power, and that's", "start": 539.27, "duration": 3.27}, {"text": "the quantitative\nrate of doing work.", "start": 542.54, "duration": 2.7}, {"text": "That is power is\nenergy per time.", "start": 545.24, "duration": 4.41}, {"text": "It's a rate.", "start": 549.65, "duration": 1.35}, {"text": "The units we use\nof that are watts,", "start": 551.0, "duration": 2.7}, {"text": "or equal to joules per second.", "start": 553.7, "duration": 2.64}, {"text": "Other forms of power that\nyou might be familiar with", "start": 556.34, "duration": 3.81}, {"text": "are ergs, amperes in terms of\nelectrical current, horsepower", "start": 560.15, "duration": 4.71}, {"text": "in terms of the engine in\nyour car or other motors,", "start": 564.86, "duration": 4.36}, {"text": "and lumens are the amount\nof energy passed off", "start": 569.22, "duration": 4.86}, {"text": "per second from\nan LED light bulb", "start": 574.08, "duration": 2.82}, {"text": "but measured over a sphere\naround a light bulb.", "start": 576.9, "duration": 2.462}, {"text": "So it's actually weighted by\nthe area around the light bulb", "start": 579.362, "duration": 2.458}, {"text": "or what degree of area is\nputting out how much energy.", "start": 581.82, "duration": 6.77}, {"text": "So to just use the same\nexample as the previous slide,", "start": 588.59, "duration": 4.2}, {"text": "you could say, I\nworked out for an hour,", "start": 592.79, "duration": 2.0}, {"text": "and I only worked off the\nequivalent of three Oreos.", "start": 594.79, "duration": 2.85}, {"text": "But maybe it sounds\nperhaps more impressive", "start": 597.64, "duration": 2.34}, {"text": "if you say, \"My workout\nmaintained a steady power", "start": 599.98, "duration": 2.79}, {"text": "output of three Oreos per hour!\"", "start": 602.77, "duration": 4.45}, {"text": "Another key concept\nwe have to cover", "start": 607.22, "duration": 2.06}, {"text": "that links energy and climate\nis emissions intensity.", "start": 609.28, "duration": 3.36}, {"text": "And emissions are measured\nin terms of greenhouse gases,", "start": 612.64, "duration": 3.66}, {"text": "usually measured in metric-ton\ncarbon dioxide equivalent,", "start": 616.3, "duration": 3.67}, {"text": "which is abbreviated MTCDE,\nor mt-CO2-e, and so on.", "start": 619.97, "duration": 6.183}, {"text": "And the reason why\nwe have to measure it", "start": 626.153, "duration": 1.667}, {"text": "in terms of metric-ton\ncarbon dioxide equivalent", "start": 627.82, "duration": 3.57}, {"text": "is that there's a lot of\ndifferent greenhouse gases,", "start": 631.39, "duration": 2.37}, {"text": "and some of them, for\nexample, methane, CH4,", "start": 633.76, "duration": 3.42}, {"text": "has much more global warming\npotential than carbon dioxide.", "start": 637.18, "duration": 3.46}, {"text": "So a single ton of\nmethane has about 84 times", "start": 640.64, "duration": 4.52}, {"text": "the global warming potential\nof a ton of carbon dioxide", "start": 645.16, "duration": 4.26}, {"text": "early in its life.", "start": 649.42, "duration": 1.02}, {"text": "That declines over time\nto about 20 metric tons", "start": 650.44, "duration": 3.54}, {"text": "of carbon dioxide equivalent.", "start": 653.98, "duration": 1.44}, {"text": "So this is just to say that,\nif we have different greenhouse", "start": 655.42, "duration": 3.33}, {"text": "gases, we measure\nthem or make them", "start": 658.75, "duration": 2.28}, {"text": "all equivalent to a\nmetric ton of carbon", "start": 661.03, "duration": 2.04}, {"text": "dioxide equivalent\nduring their lifetime.", "start": 663.07, "duration": 3.47}, {"text": "We can also measure emissions\nintensity by the type of gas,", "start": 666.54, "duration": 4.2}, {"text": "as the example I just gave\nyou in terms of methane,", "start": 670.74, "duration": 3.09}, {"text": "also nitrous oxide and\nfluorohexane, I think,", "start": 673.83, "duration": 3.36}, {"text": "are another greenhouse gas.", "start": 677.19, "duration": 1.83}, {"text": "You can measure in emissions\nintensity per unit of energy.", "start": 679.02, "duration": 3.3}, {"text": "This much greenhouse\ngas is created", "start": 682.32, "duration": 2.01}, {"text": "in terms of this much energy.", "start": 684.33, "duration": 2.4}, {"text": "You can measure greenhouse\ngases per activity,", "start": 686.73, "duration": 2.85}, {"text": "per dollar of GDP, or by region.", "start": 689.58, "duration": 2.16}, {"text": "People use lots of\ndifferent intensities.", "start": 691.74, "duration": 2.07}, {"text": "And the reason why\nI want to focus", "start": 693.81, "duration": 1.417}, {"text": "on this key concept\nof intensity is", "start": 695.227, "duration": 1.973}, {"text": "that, as we look at different\nparts of the system,", "start": 697.2, "duration": 2.26}, {"text": "we're going to look\nat the intensity", "start": 699.46, "duration": 1.16}, {"text": "of the different\nparts of the system", "start": 700.62, "duration": 1.5}, {"text": "to get a whole picture of where\ngreenhouse gases are coming", "start": 702.12, "duration": 2.97}, {"text": "from, just like we're going\nto look at energy intensity", "start": 705.09, "duration": 2.82}, {"text": "in terms of how much\nenergy do you need", "start": 707.91, "duration": 1.71}, {"text": "for different activities,\nhow much energy do", "start": 709.62, "duration": 2.49}, {"text": "different regions\nof the world use.", "start": 712.11, "duration": 2.35}, {"text": "And so to give you a few\nexamples of the Conference", "start": 714.46, "duration": 3.35}, {"text": "of the Parties, the COP\nmeetings that the UN Framework", "start": 717.81, "duration": 3.33}, {"text": "Convention on Climate\nChange runs every year--", "start": 721.14, "duration": 4.56}, {"text": "they have reporting inventory.", "start": 725.7, "duration": 1.53}, {"text": "And when every country which\nis party to the Paris Agreement", "start": 727.23, "duration": 4.23}, {"text": "has to report its greenhouse\ngas emissions and, frankly,", "start": 731.46, "duration": 2.713}, {"text": "the actions that they're taking\nto reduce their greenhouse", "start": 734.173, "duration": 2.417}, {"text": "gases.", "start": 736.59, "duration": 0.82}, {"text": "They have to measure or report\ntheir greenhouse gases in terms", "start": 737.41, "duration": 3.11}, {"text": "of a specific inventory format.", "start": 740.52, "duration": 1.86}, {"text": "So I have linked to that here.", "start": 742.38, "duration": 1.66}, {"text": "You can click on\nit, and you can see", "start": 744.04, "duration": 1.88}, {"text": "how countries report different\nkinds of greenhouse gases.", "start": 745.92, "duration": 3.75}, {"text": "It's because\ncountries can only see", "start": 749.67, "duration": 2.34}, {"text": "the source of the activities\nthat create greenhouse gases.", "start": 752.01, "duration": 4.09}, {"text": "So it's easier for us to\nmeasure how many barrels of oil", "start": 756.1, "duration": 2.93}, {"text": "we burned or how many short\ntons of coal we burned or, let's", "start": 759.03, "duration": 3.96}, {"text": "say, how much land\nuse conversion has", "start": 762.99, "duration": 1.77}, {"text": "led to how much methane or\nhow much carbon dioxide.", "start": 764.76, "duration": 3.24}, {"text": "We can also measure, let's say,\nour greenhouse gas emissions", "start": 768.0, "duration": 4.2}, {"text": "per unit of electricity because\nelectricity comes from a grid.", "start": 772.2, "duration": 4.45}, {"text": "The grid is a technology\nwe'll talk about a lot", "start": 776.65, "duration": 1.99}, {"text": "in in this class that mixes\ndifferent sources of energy", "start": 778.64, "duration": 2.98}, {"text": "together.", "start": 781.62, "duration": 0.72}, {"text": "And so we try to get an average\nintensity of greenhouse gas", "start": 782.34, "duration": 3.9}, {"text": "emissions per unit\nof electricity", "start": 786.24, "duration": 2.04}, {"text": "in different regions.", "start": 788.28, "duration": 1.77}, {"text": "Another emissions\nintensity factor", "start": 790.05, "duration": 1.98}, {"text": "that people look at quite\noften is air quality.", "start": 792.03, "duration": 2.35}, {"text": "You can look at how many\ngreenhouse gases or how", "start": 794.38, "duration": 2.72}, {"text": "much particulate matter is\nproduced by certain activities,", "start": 797.1, "duration": 4.05}, {"text": "like vehicle miles traveled\nor number of cars on the road.", "start": 801.15, "duration": 4.87}, {"text": "So just to give you an example\nof what carbon emission", "start": 806.02, "duration": 2.25}, {"text": "intensity looks like, this is\nthe carbon emission intensity", "start": 808.27, "duration": 3.63}, {"text": "of economies in 2018, and this\nis from Our World in Data.", "start": 811.9, "duration": 4.26}, {"text": "And you can see,\nactually, it's measured,", "start": 816.16, "duration": 2.04}, {"text": "on the bottom legend here, in\nterms of amount of kilograms", "start": 818.2, "duration": 4.74}, {"text": "of carbon dioxide equivalent,\nthe carbon dioxide intensity,", "start": 822.94, "duration": 4.59}, {"text": "per dollar of GDP measured\nin international 2011 prices.", "start": 827.53, "duration": 5.02}, {"text": "And you can see, by\nthat measure, actually,", "start": 832.55, "duration": 2.51}, {"text": "a lot of the developed world,\nsuch as Australia, Europe,", "start": 835.06, "duration": 3.9}, {"text": "North America, and\nparts of Latin America", "start": 838.96, "duration": 2.91}, {"text": "don't look very intense,\nif only because they", "start": 841.87, "duration": 2.7}, {"text": "don't produce that\nmany greenhouse", "start": 844.57, "duration": 1.74}, {"text": "gases per dollar of GDP output.", "start": 846.31, "duration": 3.36}, {"text": "Now, like we talked\nabout in the last class", "start": 849.67, "duration": 2.76}, {"text": "in terms of population,\nwhat does this hide?", "start": 852.43, "duration": 3.513}, {"text": "Well, there's a couple\nof things with the map.", "start": 855.943, "duration": 1.917}, {"text": "Sometimes the area of the\nmap distorts the actual area", "start": 857.86, "duration": 3.6}, {"text": "or total emissions.", "start": 861.46, "duration": 1.26}, {"text": "Small places don't look like\nthey have as much impact", "start": 862.72, "duration": 2.58}, {"text": "as big places, even\nthough that really has", "start": 865.3, "duration": 2.01}, {"text": "nothing to do with the average.", "start": 867.31, "duration": 1.65}, {"text": "But the more important\npoint from a map like this", "start": 868.96, "duration": 2.76}, {"text": "is that it hides the fact\nthat the rich countries,", "start": 871.72, "duration": 2.97}, {"text": "like Australia, Europe,\nNorth America, and parts", "start": 874.69, "duration": 3.81}, {"text": "of Latin America, simply\nhave much larger GDPs.", "start": 878.5, "duration": 3.21}, {"text": "So it looks like the carbon\ndioxide output per GDP is low.", "start": 881.71, "duration": 5.74}, {"text": "But if we look at the\nper-capita CO2 emissions,", "start": 887.45, "duration": 2.48}, {"text": "like the point at\nour last class,", "start": 889.93, "duration": 1.552}, {"text": "you can see that, for a\nrelatively small number", "start": 891.482, "duration": 1.958}, {"text": "of people in those rich,\ndeveloped countries,", "start": 893.44, "duration": 2.25}, {"text": "they have very high CO2\nemissions per capita.", "start": 895.69, "duration": 3.06}, {"text": "And so your map basically\nchanges diametrically.", "start": 898.75, "duration": 2.988}, {"text": "And you can see the difference\nbetween richer countries", "start": 901.738, "duration": 2.292}, {"text": "and poor countries.", "start": 904.03, "duration": 1.05}, {"text": "And overwhelmingly,\nthe richer countries", "start": 905.08, "duration": 2.22}, {"text": "are more responsible for\ncarbon dioxide emissions.", "start": 907.3, "duration": 4.48}, {"text": "If we look at this\nsimilarly in a scatterplot,", "start": 911.78, "duration": 3.54}, {"text": "you can, again,\nsee that it looks", "start": 915.32, "duration": 2.07}, {"text": "like, on an emission\nintensity basis,", "start": 917.39, "duration": 2.165}, {"text": "India and the United States\nare not that different.", "start": 919.555, "duration": 2.125}, {"text": "Of course, the\ndifference is, in terms", "start": 921.68, "duration": 2.22}, {"text": "of the output of the economy\non a per-capita basis,", "start": 923.9, "duration": 3.09}, {"text": "the average person\nin the United States", "start": 926.99, "duration": 2.37}, {"text": "produces much more and\ninevitably consumes much more", "start": 929.36, "duration": 3.36}, {"text": "than your average person\nin India or Pakistan.", "start": 932.72, "duration": 2.22}, {"text": "So even though we have\nequivalent emissions intensity", "start": 934.94, "duration": 3.87}, {"text": "per dollar, we simply\nproduce and consume", "start": 938.81, "duration": 2.91}, {"text": "much more in the\nricher countries.", "start": 941.72, "duration": 1.98}, {"text": "And I make this point because,\nafter the Kyoto Protocol", "start": 943.7, "duration": 4.02}, {"text": "and after the George\nW. Bush administration", "start": 947.72, "duration": 3.03}, {"text": "chose to leave the\nKyoto Protocol,", "start": 950.75, "duration": 1.95}, {"text": "one of their arguments\nwas that the US actually", "start": 952.7, "duration": 2.94}, {"text": "had a lower carbon emission\nintensity, or at least", "start": 955.64, "duration": 3.54}, {"text": "a comparable carbon\nemission intensity,", "start": 959.18, "duration": 2.43}, {"text": "to some developing countries.", "start": 961.61, "duration": 1.77}, {"text": "Of course, this hid the\nfact that the United States", "start": 963.38, "duration": 3.39}, {"text": "is both richer and consumes much\nmore and produces much more.", "start": 966.77, "duration": 4.63}, {"text": "So that's just a way to talk\nabout what intensities may tell", "start": 971.4, "duration": 3.65}, {"text": "us and what they may hide also.", "start": 975.05, "duration": 3.05}, {"text": "Now I'll get to a\nreally key diagram", "start": 978.1, "duration": 2.04}, {"text": "that I rather love\nin this class.", "start": 980.14, "duration": 1.96}, {"text": "So I'll start off this class by\ntalking about Sankey diagrams.", "start": 982.1, "duration": 3.77}, {"text": "And you can find a\nSankey diagram for the US", "start": 985.87, "duration": 2.22}, {"text": "and every state at this web\nlink at part of the bottom", "start": 988.09, "duration": 3.09}, {"text": "from Lawrence Livermore\nNational Laboratory.", "start": 991.18, "duration": 2.91}, {"text": "What a Sankey diagram is\nis basically a flow chart,", "start": 994.09, "duration": 3.18}, {"text": "and it's a flow chart between\nthe sources on the left.", "start": 997.27, "duration": 2.368}, {"text": "And you can see all of\nour energy sources, solar,", "start": 999.638, "duration": 2.042}, {"text": "nuclear, hydro, wind,\ngeothermal, natural gas, coal,", "start": 1001.68, "duration": 3.24}, {"text": "biomass, and petroleum.", "start": 1004.92, "duration": 1.56}, {"text": "And you can see all of the\nultimate uses on the right.", "start": 1006.48, "duration": 3.6}, {"text": "And the final--", "start": 1010.08, "duration": 1.63}, {"text": "I guess what we'd call\nfinal consumption is", "start": 1011.71, "duration": 2.0}, {"text": "in residential buildings,\ncommercial buildings,", "start": 1013.71, "duration": 1.96}, {"text": "industrial buildings,\nand transportation.", "start": 1015.67, "duration": 2.24}, {"text": "Of course, this\nfinal category here", "start": 1017.91, "duration": 2.55}, {"text": "is also a kind of a statement\nabout where does the energy go", "start": 1020.46, "duration": 3.12}, {"text": "in the first place.", "start": 1023.58, "duration": 1.32}, {"text": "Only about 50% of the energy\nor less that we actually", "start": 1024.9, "duration": 4.35}, {"text": "burn from the original\nsources goes into these uses", "start": 1029.25, "duration": 5.16}, {"text": "in these sectors.", "start": 1034.41, "duration": 1.53}, {"text": "About, actually, looks like\none third of the energy", "start": 1035.94, "duration": 3.12}, {"text": "goes to what we call\nenergy services.", "start": 1039.06, "duration": 2.64}, {"text": "And rejected energy\nis the byproduct", "start": 1041.7, "duration": 2.79}, {"text": "of that combustion, usually,\nthat we don't capture", "start": 1044.49, "duration": 3.57}, {"text": "for actual energy services.", "start": 1048.06, "duration": 1.35}, {"text": "So to give you an\nexample, you can see how--", "start": 1049.41, "duration": 2.79}, {"text": "I said before, the electric\ngrid mixes many different types", "start": 1052.2, "duration": 3.72}, {"text": "of energy sources--", "start": 1055.92, "duration": 1.71}, {"text": "solar, nuclear, hydro, wind,\nall these, natural gas, and coal", "start": 1057.63, "duration": 4.89}, {"text": "all feed into the electric grid.", "start": 1062.52, "duration": 1.95}, {"text": "But when we feed that energy\ninto the electric grid,", "start": 1064.47, "duration": 2.46}, {"text": "into power plants, we basically\nonly take a fraction of it.", "start": 1066.93, "duration": 3.12}, {"text": "It looks like about one\nthird of the electricity,", "start": 1070.05, "duration": 2.7}, {"text": "one third of the energy\nin those energy sources,", "start": 1072.75, "duration": 2.16}, {"text": "actually goes to things like\nresidential, commercial,", "start": 1074.91, "duration": 3.07}, {"text": "and industrial.", "start": 1077.98, "duration": 0.77}, {"text": "But about 2/3 of\nit gets rejected,", "start": 1078.75, "duration": 2.26}, {"text": "which means that it's\nheat energy going out", "start": 1081.01, "duration": 2.54}, {"text": "of the chimney of a\ncoal-fired power plant,", "start": 1083.55, "duration": 2.64}, {"text": "or might be energy lost in\nthe electric grid that's", "start": 1086.19, "duration": 2.52}, {"text": "simply lost because\nof the resistance", "start": 1088.71, "duration": 1.86}, {"text": "of the electrical wires.", "start": 1090.57, "duration": 2.01}, {"text": "And so this kind of\ngraph, I actually", "start": 1092.58, "duration": 2.25}, {"text": "find tremendously\nuseful to summarize", "start": 1094.83, "duration": 2.55}, {"text": "what the sources\non the left are,", "start": 1097.38, "duration": 2.4}, {"text": "the ultimate uses of the\nenergy are on the right,", "start": 1099.78, "duration": 3.03}, {"text": "and also some of the\ninterim steps where", "start": 1102.81, "duration": 2.103}, {"text": "we might be able to\ncapture some of the energy", "start": 1104.913, "duration": 1.917}, {"text": "back in terms of energy\nefficiency or at least", "start": 1106.83, "duration": 2.49}, {"text": "think about how our\nintermediate technologies,", "start": 1109.32, "duration": 2.25}, {"text": "like the electric grid,\nactually use energy", "start": 1111.57, "duration": 2.61}, {"text": "and how much of the intrinsic\nenergy in the fuel source", "start": 1114.18, "duration": 3.06}, {"text": "are we using.", "start": 1117.24, "duration": 1.53}, {"text": "To take one example\nfrom this graph,", "start": 1118.77, "duration": 2.52}, {"text": "I think it does a really\ngood job of showing you,", "start": 1121.29, "duration": 2.17}, {"text": "for example, that\nelectricity overwhelmingly", "start": 1123.46, "duration": 2.06}, {"text": "goes into residential\nbuildings, commercial buildings,", "start": 1125.52, "duration": 2.34}, {"text": "and industrial buildings\nor industrial activities,", "start": 1127.86, "duration": 3.325}, {"text": "but you can see that there is\nno link between electricity", "start": 1131.185, "duration": 2.375}, {"text": "generation and transportation,\nso a very small orange line", "start": 1133.56, "duration": 3.03}, {"text": "here, 0.02 quads.", "start": 1136.59, "duration": 3.572}, {"text": "And once again, I\nshould have pointed out", "start": 1140.162, "duration": 1.708}, {"text": "is that the total US\nenergy consumption in 2021", "start": 1141.87, "duration": 2.7}, {"text": "was at 97 quads.", "start": 1144.57, "duration": 1.83}, {"text": "It's pretty easy mentally to\nround that up to about 100.", "start": 1146.4, "duration": 3.18}, {"text": "So this is actually\n0.02%, roughly,", "start": 1149.58, "duration": 3.66}, {"text": "of all the energy in\nthe US or electricity", "start": 1153.24, "duration": 3.06}, {"text": "is used for transportation.", "start": 1156.3, "duration": 1.41}, {"text": "You can see, overwhelmingly,\nthat the majority of energy", "start": 1157.71, "duration": 3.03}, {"text": "for transportation, 24.3 quads,\nor about 24% going to the US,", "start": 1160.74, "duration": 5.7}, {"text": "comes from petroleum.", "start": 1166.44, "duration": 1.35}, {"text": "And originally, that came from\nabout 35 quads of-- or 35%", "start": 1167.79, "duration": 5.25}, {"text": "of our initial energy sources.", "start": 1173.04, "duration": 2.46}, {"text": "And you can see some\nportion goes off", "start": 1175.5, "duration": 1.77}, {"text": "to industrial activities.", "start": 1177.27, "duration": 1.38}, {"text": "But the vast majority\nof the energy", "start": 1178.65, "duration": 1.8}, {"text": "that drives our transportation\nsystem is petroleum.", "start": 1180.45, "duration": 3.24}, {"text": "And you can see that, when\nwe burn petroleum or gasoline", "start": 1183.69, "duration": 4.05}, {"text": "in our internal\ncombustion engines,", "start": 1187.74, "duration": 2.16}, {"text": "a very small fraction-- it\nlooks like about 20% of it--", "start": 1189.9, "duration": 3.27}, {"text": "is actually used for\nmoving the car forward.", "start": 1193.17, "duration": 3.36}, {"text": "About 80% of the energy actually\ngoes out of the tailpipe", "start": 1196.53, "duration": 3.42}, {"text": "either in the form of heat out\nof the tailpipe or else air", "start": 1199.95, "duration": 3.84}, {"text": "resistance.", "start": 1203.79, "duration": 0.57}, {"text": "That is not really what\nwe are trying to do.", "start": 1204.36, "duration": 2.17}, {"text": "We're trying to move goods and\nservices and people around.", "start": 1206.53, "duration": 3.91}, {"text": "And so this is\njust, again, a way", "start": 1210.44, "duration": 1.817}, {"text": "of saying that there's lots\nof different kinds of Sankey", "start": 1212.257, "duration": 2.333}, {"text": "diagrams.", "start": 1214.59, "duration": 0.63}, {"text": "This is a nice one that\nit has proportional flows", "start": 1215.22, "duration": 2.82}, {"text": "between sources, intermediate,\ntransforming technologies,", "start": 1218.04, "duration": 3.78}, {"text": "and usages.", "start": 1221.82, "duration": 1.14}, {"text": "It also shows you\nwhat efficiency level", "start": 1222.96, "duration": 2.58}, {"text": "is being achieved in\nthese different sectors.", "start": 1225.54, "duration": 2.34}, {"text": "This is essentially an\naccounting exercise,", "start": 1227.88, "duration": 2.29}, {"text": "but if you can find a\nSankey diagram for a given", "start": 1230.17, "duration": 2.36}, {"text": "region or a city\nor a country, it", "start": 1232.53, "duration": 2.263}, {"text": "gives you a really\ngood picture of where", "start": 1234.793, "duration": 1.667}, {"text": "the energy is coming from and\nwhere the energy is going to.", "start": 1236.46, "duration": 3.7}, {"text": "So we want to use\nthese Sankey diagrams", "start": 1240.16, "duration": 1.86}, {"text": "to think about what our pathways\nare to deep decarbonization.", "start": 1242.02, "duration": 3.48}, {"text": "Deep decarbonization-- I\nthink I've said before,", "start": 1245.5, "duration": 2.59}, {"text": "if I haven't said it before--", "start": 1248.09, "duration": 1.52}, {"text": "it is both a goal and a process.", "start": 1249.61, "duration": 2.53}, {"text": "We know that climate\nscience tells us--", "start": 1252.14, "duration": 2.66}, {"text": "the IPCC has told us through an\nexhaustive scientific process", "start": 1254.8, "duration": 3.93}, {"text": "that we need to achieve net-zero\nanthropogenic greenhouse gas", "start": 1258.73, "duration": 3.69}, {"text": "emissions by 2050.", "start": 1262.42, "duration": 1.71}, {"text": "Deep decarbonization\nis both the goal", "start": 1264.13, "duration": 2.49}, {"text": "of getting to net-zero\nemissions by 2050,", "start": 1266.62, "duration": 3.06}, {"text": "and also, it's this process.", "start": 1269.68, "duration": 1.44}, {"text": "We're decarbonizing\nfor the next 28 years", "start": 1271.12, "duration": 2.76}, {"text": "to lessen the effects\nof climate change.", "start": 1273.88, "duration": 3.16}, {"text": "And so the first deep\ndecarbonization plan", "start": 1277.04, "duration": 2.75}, {"text": "started in 2015.", "start": 1279.79, "duration": 2.25}, {"text": "The Deep Decarbonization\nPathways Project", "start": 1282.04, "duration": 2.7}, {"text": "started 2015 for a\nnumber of countries", "start": 1284.74, "duration": 1.86}, {"text": "to try to think about\nwhat analytical or policy", "start": 1286.6, "duration": 3.03}, {"text": "or technology\npathways we needed.", "start": 1289.63, "duration": 1.83}, {"text": "It was updated in\nthis paper in 2020", "start": 1291.46, "duration": 2.04}, {"text": "that you read for this class.", "start": 1293.5, "duration": 1.77}, {"text": "That was quickly followed by\nthe White House Mid-Century", "start": 1295.27, "duration": 2.91}, {"text": "Strategy, which was the Obama\nadministration's commitment", "start": 1298.18, "duration": 2.82}, {"text": "to the Paris Agreement to reduce\ngreenhouse gas emissions by 80%", "start": 1301.0, "duration": 3.39}, {"text": "by 2050.", "start": 1304.39, "duration": 1.17}, {"text": "But just four years later,\nyou have a series of reports", "start": 1305.56, "duration": 2.67}, {"text": "from academics and\nNGOs looking at ways", "start": 1308.23, "duration": 3.78}, {"text": "to get to 100%\nreduction by 2050,", "start": 1312.01, "duration": 2.74}, {"text": "which is what the IPCC\nsays we need to do by 2050.", "start": 1314.75, "duration": 4.56}, {"text": "And so the key thing I\nwant to say in this class", "start": 1319.31, "duration": 2.93}, {"text": "but also in the paper I\nreferred to last time last week,", "start": 1322.24, "duration": 4.625}, {"text": "the paper on deep\ndecarbonization", "start": 1326.865, "duration": 1.375}, {"text": "that I wrote recently, is\nthat many of these plans", "start": 1328.24, "duration": 2.73}, {"text": "agree what the\ntechnology pathways are.", "start": 1330.97, "duration": 2.2}, {"text": "So we should focus as\nurban policy analysts", "start": 1333.17, "duration": 4.67}, {"text": "and urban planners\nand people who work", "start": 1337.84, "duration": 1.68}, {"text": "in cities on implementation.", "start": 1339.52, "duration": 2.28}, {"text": "We should focus on geography.", "start": 1341.8, "duration": 1.53}, {"text": "We should focus on\nthe politics of it.", "start": 1343.33, "duration": 1.77}, {"text": "And, frankly, as planners, we\nshould look at the land use", "start": 1345.1, "duration": 3.12}, {"text": "and built environment\nimplications", "start": 1348.22, "duration": 2.01}, {"text": "of deep decarbonization.", "start": 1350.23, "duration": 3.19}, {"text": "So look at the Sankey diagram\nfrom Williams et al., 2020.", "start": 1353.42, "duration": 3.63}, {"text": "They look at the reference\ncase for energy use", "start": 1357.05, "duration": 5.725}, {"text": "in the United States.", "start": 1362.775, "duration": 0.875}, {"text": "And this is a reference case\nI think the Energy Information", "start": 1363.65, "duration": 2.73}, {"text": "Administration puts\nout every year.", "start": 1366.38, "duration": 2.88}, {"text": "You can see on\nthe left-hand side", "start": 1369.26, "duration": 1.44}, {"text": "that, overwhelmingly,\nthe reference case, which", "start": 1370.7, "duration": 2.55}, {"text": "is usually fairly\nconservative, shows", "start": 1373.25, "duration": 2.07}, {"text": "that we will get\nmost of our energy", "start": 1375.32, "duration": 2.22}, {"text": "from-- we get most of our energy\ncurrently from uranium, coal,", "start": 1377.54, "duration": 3.31}, {"text": "natural gas, a little\nbit from biomass,", "start": 1380.85, "duration": 2.21}, {"text": "and a large portion\nfrom petroleum.", "start": 1383.06, "duration": 2.4}, {"text": "You can see renewables\nhere are relatively small--", "start": 1385.46, "duration": 2.7}, {"text": "geothermal, solar,\nwind, and hydro.", "start": 1388.16, "duration": 2.7}, {"text": "And all the energy goes through\nthe intermediate steps--", "start": 1390.86, "duration": 3.03}, {"text": "electricity generation,\npipeline gas, petroleum refining", "start": 1393.89, "duration": 3.48}, {"text": "outputs, or liquid fuels.", "start": 1397.37, "duration": 1.98}, {"text": "It gets transmitted\nthrough the electric grid,", "start": 1399.35, "duration": 1.95}, {"text": "and it ultimately\ngoes to buildings,", "start": 1401.3, "duration": 1.92}, {"text": "which are residential and\ncommercial buildings together.", "start": 1403.22, "duration": 2.52}, {"text": "It goes to industry, and\nit goes to transportation.", "start": 1405.74, "duration": 2.76}, {"text": "Again, you can see\nhere from buildings", "start": 1408.5, "duration": 2.19}, {"text": "that, overwhelmingly,\nabout half of the energy", "start": 1410.69, "duration": 2.4}, {"text": "comes from the grid, and\nhalf the energy comes", "start": 1413.09, "duration": 1.92}, {"text": "from pipeline gas.", "start": 1415.01, "duration": 1.44}, {"text": "Transportation, almost all\nthe energy we currently use", "start": 1416.45, "duration": 3.15}, {"text": "comes from petroleum.", "start": 1419.6, "duration": 3.12}, {"text": "And industry uses a variety of\nenergy technologies and fuels.", "start": 1422.72, "duration": 4.35}, {"text": "Now let's contrast that with\nthe Williams paper on what", "start": 1427.07, "duration": 3.6}, {"text": "a 100%-renewable-energy\nfuture would look like.", "start": 1430.67, "duration": 3.31}, {"text": "There's a couple of\nthings to notice here.", "start": 1433.98, "duration": 1.98}, {"text": "First, all of our renewables,\nthe 100% renewable sources", "start": 1435.96, "duration": 3.14}, {"text": "we are going to need, have taken\nover completely-- geothermal,", "start": 1439.1, "duration": 3.84}, {"text": "solar, wind, hydro, and biomass.", "start": 1442.94, "duration": 2.26}, {"text": "There's no coal, no natural\ngas, and no petroleum.", "start": 1445.2, "duration": 3.8}, {"text": "Overwhelmingly, about\n2/3 of the energy", "start": 1449.0, "duration": 1.98}, {"text": "will go through\nthe electric grid.", "start": 1450.98, "duration": 1.9}, {"text": "It will be generated\nas electricity,", "start": 1452.88, "duration": 2.36}, {"text": "either goes through\nthe grid or be", "start": 1455.24, "duration": 2.0}, {"text": "used to produce\nhydrogen. Hydrogen will", "start": 1457.24, "duration": 2.35}, {"text": "produce various liquid\nand gaseous fuels.", "start": 1459.59, "duration": 3.76}, {"text": "And if you look at what the\nfuture looks like in 2050", "start": 1463.35, "duration": 2.54}, {"text": "according to this paper or\nthis technology pathway,", "start": 1465.89, "duration": 3.282}, {"text": "you can see that buildings\nhave to overwhelmingly get", "start": 1469.172, "duration": 2.208}, {"text": "their energy from electricity.", "start": 1471.38, "duration": 1.83}, {"text": "Industry will still use\na variety of inputs,", "start": 1473.21, "duration": 2.1}, {"text": "but all those inputs will be\nfrom intermediate steps that", "start": 1475.31, "duration": 3.57}, {"text": "have transformed our renewable\nenergy into the kinds of fuels", "start": 1478.88, "duration": 3.82}, {"text": "we need to drive\nindustrial processes.", "start": 1482.7, "duration": 1.88}, {"text": "And you can see\nthat transportation", "start": 1484.58, "duration": 2.19}, {"text": "is going to come\noverwhelmingly from electric.", "start": 1486.77, "duration": 3.03}, {"text": "About 50% of our energy\nin transportation", "start": 1489.8, "duration": 2.39}, {"text": "will come from electric.", "start": 1492.19, "duration": 1.0}, {"text": "Some of it will come from,\nI think, liquid fuels,", "start": 1493.19, "duration": 3.15}, {"text": "and some will come\nfrom compressed gases,", "start": 1496.34, "duration": 3.63}, {"text": "such as hydrogen and\nmaybe natural gas", "start": 1499.97, "duration": 2.7}, {"text": "or methane produced from\nrenewable resources.", "start": 1502.67, "duration": 5.04}, {"text": "And let's just look at the\nimplications from this,", "start": 1507.71, "duration": 2.16}, {"text": "and this is to read the numbers\noff those previous two graphs.", "start": 1509.87, "duration": 3.42}, {"text": "And then you look\nat the power sector.", "start": 1513.29, "duration": 2.34}, {"text": "You can see that petroleum,\nnatural gas, and coal,", "start": 1515.63, "duration": 2.49}, {"text": "as I said, have to be\neliminated completely, 100%.", "start": 1518.12, "duration": 4.17}, {"text": "Biomass has to grow\nby 3 and 1/2 times.", "start": 1522.29, "duration": 3.66}, {"text": "Nuclear power, in the\n100% renewable case,", "start": 1525.95, "duration": 2.85}, {"text": "is actually\neliminated completely", "start": 1528.8, "duration": 1.56}, {"text": "because I think Williams et\nal. do not define nuclear", "start": 1530.36, "duration": 2.88}, {"text": "as a renewable energy source.", "start": 1533.24, "duration": 1.74}, {"text": "But the key things,\nthe most dire, I think,", "start": 1534.98, "duration": 3.09}, {"text": "or most challenging things\nwe have to deal with", "start": 1538.07, "duration": 3.18}, {"text": "are growing our solar energy\nshare by about a factor of 46.", "start": 1541.25, "duration": 4.86}, {"text": "We have to grow our share\nfrom wind by a factor of 27.", "start": 1546.11, "duration": 3.75}, {"text": "Hydro and geothermal are going\nto be relatively small players", "start": 1549.86, "duration": 3.06}, {"text": "in this forecast.", "start": 1552.92, "duration": 1.23}, {"text": "And that's just for the\nelectric power sector.", "start": 1554.15, "duration": 2.83}, {"text": "If you look at buildings,\nresidential/commercial,", "start": 1556.98, "duration": 2.24}, {"text": "you can see two things.", "start": 1559.22, "duration": 1.63}, {"text": "Not only does electricity\nhave to decline in total use,", "start": 1560.85, "duration": 4.76}, {"text": "but we have to completely\neliminate natural gas.", "start": 1565.61, "duration": 2.82}, {"text": "And we have to increase our\nuse of biomass just slightly.", "start": 1568.43, "duration": 4.59}, {"text": "Now, the key thing\nis that the reason", "start": 1573.02, "duration": 1.95}, {"text": "why we're declining our\ntotal use of electricity", "start": 1574.97, "duration": 2.7}, {"text": "is that it's more efficient.", "start": 1577.67, "duration": 1.218}, {"text": "But at the same\ntime, the electricity", "start": 1578.888, "duration": 1.542}, {"text": "we do use is going to\nbe used to do things", "start": 1580.43, "duration": 2.52}, {"text": "that natural gas\ncurrently does, like we're", "start": 1582.95, "duration": 2.22}, {"text": "going to get heating and cooling\nfrom electricity rather than", "start": 1585.17, "duration": 3.42}, {"text": "from natural gas as we do now.", "start": 1588.59, "duration": 2.17}, {"text": "And so this is one\nimportant point", "start": 1590.76, "duration": 1.492}, {"text": "I want to highlight\nfrom Sankey diagrams.", "start": 1592.252, "duration": 1.708}, {"text": "If you look at the total\nprimary energy in buildings,", "start": 1593.96, "duration": 2.73}, {"text": "it actually has to\ngo down by about 50%.", "start": 1596.69, "duration": 2.738}, {"text": "And this is the point I think\nI made in the last class, which", "start": 1599.428, "duration": 2.542}, {"text": "is, if you look back here,\nthe total amount of energy--", "start": 1601.97, "duration": 4.2}, {"text": "it looks like, I think,\nroughly 100 quads,", "start": 1606.17, "duration": 2.01}, {"text": "also 100 exajoules I think is\nhow this paper measures it.", "start": 1608.18, "duration": 3.28}, {"text": "And if you look\nat the next slide,", "start": 1611.46, "duration": 1.68}, {"text": "you can see that the\nwidth of these flows", "start": 1613.14, "duration": 2.12}, {"text": "have gone down quite a bit,\nwhich is just to make the point", "start": 1615.26, "duration": 3.42}, {"text": "that I think I said to\nyou last week, which", "start": 1618.68, "duration": 1.83}, {"text": "is that not only do our uses\nhave to become more efficient,", "start": 1620.51, "duration": 3.94}, {"text": "we also have to simply reduce\nthe total amount we're using.", "start": 1624.45, "duration": 4.07}, {"text": "And the remaining 50%\nhave to become renewable.", "start": 1628.52, "duration": 2.37}, {"text": "So we actually need a\ncomplete transformation", "start": 1630.89, "duration": 1.92}, {"text": "of our energy system both\non the consumption side", "start": 1632.81, "duration": 2.7}, {"text": "and the production side.", "start": 1635.51, "duration": 2.18}, {"text": "If you look at the\nTong paper, this", "start": 1637.69, "duration": 3.39}, {"text": "is going to shift a little bit\nto this question of existing", "start": 1641.08, "duration": 3.42}, {"text": "energy infrastructure.", "start": 1644.5, "duration": 1.56}, {"text": "This is a paper written\nin 2019 in Nature.", "start": 1646.06, "duration": 3.78}, {"text": "And in this paper,\nthey say our estimates", "start": 1649.84, "duration": 2.1}, {"text": "suggest that little or no new\nCO2-emitting infrastructure", "start": 1651.94, "duration": 4.17}, {"text": "can be commissioned, and that\nexisting infrastructure may", "start": 1656.11, "duration": 2.88}, {"text": "need to be retired early or be\nretrofitted with carbon capture", "start": 1658.99, "duration": 3.54}, {"text": "and storage technology in order\nto meet the Paris Agreement", "start": 1662.53, "duration": 3.0}, {"text": "climate goals.", "start": 1665.53, "duration": 1.15}, {"text": "So this paper is basically\ngoing to show us that we have", "start": 1666.68, "duration": 2.96}, {"text": "existing infrastructure--\nobviously,", "start": 1669.64, "duration": 1.74}, {"text": "the energy infrastructure\nthat we use every day--", "start": 1671.38, "duration": 2.327}, {"text": "and if we want to meet our\nParis Agreement climate", "start": 1673.707, "duration": 2.083}, {"text": "goals, which is\nkeeping, preferably,", "start": 1675.79, "duration": 2.13}, {"text": "global average temperatures less\nthan 1.5 degrees Celsius higher", "start": 1677.92, "duration": 4.35}, {"text": "than pre-Industrial\nera, we actually", "start": 1682.27, "duration": 2.37}, {"text": "need to build no more fossil\nfuel infrastructure, which", "start": 1684.64, "duration": 3.99}, {"text": "is CO2-emitting infrastructure.", "start": 1688.63, "duration": 1.65}, {"text": "And we may have to retire some\nof the energy infrastructure", "start": 1690.28, "duration": 2.64}, {"text": "that we have early before\nit's planned lifetime.", "start": 1692.92, "duration": 3.48}, {"text": "This is part of the struggle.", "start": 1696.4, "duration": 2.16}, {"text": "This is why you have\nactivists trying", "start": 1698.56, "duration": 1.71}, {"text": "to retire coal-fired\npower plants", "start": 1700.27, "duration": 3.27}, {"text": "and avoid building new\npipelines and natural gas plants", "start": 1703.54, "duration": 3.45}, {"text": "or having, let's say, gas bans\nfor new appliances in parts", "start": 1706.99, "duration": 4.35}, {"text": "of Massachusetts and\nCalifornia and other states.", "start": 1711.34, "duration": 3.012}, {"text": "So just to show\nyou what this looks", "start": 1714.352, "duration": 1.458}, {"text": "like, all these categories\nin the legend here--", "start": 1715.81, "duration": 2.907}, {"text": "commercial buildings,\nresidential buildings,", "start": 1718.717, "duration": 1.833}, {"text": "international transport,\nroad transport, industry,", "start": 1720.55, "duration": 2.083}, {"text": "electricity-- these\nkinds of technologies", "start": 1722.633, "duration": 2.357}, {"text": "have a natural lifetime\nin terms of they", "start": 1724.99, "duration": 3.51}, {"text": "have a committed CO2\nemission from existing", "start": 1728.5, "duration": 3.3}, {"text": "and proposed infrastructure.", "start": 1731.8, "duration": 1.66}, {"text": "And you can see that our\nexisting infrastructure", "start": 1733.46, "duration": 2.24}, {"text": "is overwhelmingly dominated\nby industry and electricity.", "start": 1735.7, "duration": 3.15}, {"text": "And road transport\nis this blue wedge,", "start": 1738.85, "duration": 2.22}, {"text": "and buildings are\nactually relatively small.", "start": 1741.07, "duration": 2.255}, {"text": "And those are all\nthings that are", "start": 1743.325, "duration": 1.375}, {"text": "going to phase out\nnaturally over time", "start": 1744.7, "duration": 2.22}, {"text": "because infrastructure gets old.", "start": 1746.92, "duration": 1.66}, {"text": "If you don't maintain it,\nand you don't rebuild it,", "start": 1748.58, "duration": 2.63}, {"text": "then it wears out, and\nyou can't use it anymore.", "start": 1751.21, "duration": 2.95}, {"text": "We've had more proposed\ninfrastructure,", "start": 1754.16, "duration": 2.18}, {"text": "but that proposed infrastructure\ncannot be built if we need", "start": 1756.34, "duration": 4.17}, {"text": "to try to meet our\nParis Climate goals.", "start": 1760.51, "duration": 2.58}, {"text": "At the same time, in\nthe B panel here, we", "start": 1763.09, "duration": 3.93}, {"text": "have the committed emissions\nfrom different countries.", "start": 1767.02, "duration": 3.1}, {"text": "And you can see the\nlifetime of infrastructure", "start": 1770.12, "duration": 2.09}, {"text": "in China is relatively\nlong and a large portion", "start": 1772.21, "duration": 4.23}, {"text": "of the future problem\nbecause so much of it", "start": 1776.44, "duration": 2.67}, {"text": "has been built fairly recently.", "start": 1779.11, "duration": 1.89}, {"text": "You can see the\nrest of the world", "start": 1781.0, "duration": 1.53}, {"text": "is actually only about 2/3 of\nthe problem that China poses.", "start": 1782.53, "duration": 4.53}, {"text": "And, actually, the US has\na relatively small future", "start": 1787.06, "duration": 2.67}, {"text": "committed emissions because\nthe nature of our technology.", "start": 1789.73, "duration": 3.34}, {"text": "Of course, there's been\nmany more proposed projects,", "start": 1793.07, "duration": 2.99}, {"text": "but the point of this paper is\nthat we cannot actually build", "start": 1796.06, "duration": 4.112}, {"text": "the proposed infrastructure,\nand we may have to retire some", "start": 1800.172, "duration": 2.458}, {"text": "of those existing infrastructure\nearly to avoid going over", "start": 1802.63, "duration": 3.36}, {"text": "our climate limits.", "start": 1805.99, "duration": 2.02}, {"text": "So another kind of interesting\ngraph in this paper which", "start": 1808.01, "duration": 2.69}, {"text": "I like quite a bit is\na population pyramid,", "start": 1810.7, "duration": 2.22}, {"text": "but it's a population\npyramid showing", "start": 1812.92, "duration": 2.91}, {"text": "the proportions of the\npopulation of people by age.", "start": 1815.83, "duration": 3.69}, {"text": "It actually shows\nthe age structure", "start": 1819.52, "duration": 1.77}, {"text": "of our global\nelectricity-generating", "start": 1821.29, "duration": 2.19}, {"text": "capacity.", "start": 1823.48, "duration": 1.02}, {"text": "And I want to simply\nmake a point about what", "start": 1824.5, "duration": 2.43}, {"text": "the different nature of the\nproblem in China and the US", "start": 1826.93, "duration": 3.36}, {"text": "are.", "start": 1830.29, "duration": 0.6}, {"text": "You can see on the\nleft-hand side--", "start": 1830.89, "duration": 2.49}, {"text": "this is the rest of the\nworld, in some ways,", "start": 1833.38, "duration": 2.34}, {"text": "dominated by the US.", "start": 1835.72, "duration": 1.03}, {"text": "You can see around\n15 or 17 years ago,", "start": 1836.75, "duration": 2.42}, {"text": "we've built quite a bit\nof natural gas or oil", "start": 1839.17, "duration": 2.85}, {"text": "infrastructure.", "start": 1842.02, "duration": 1.445}, {"text": "You can see the\nrest of the world", "start": 1843.465, "duration": 1.375}, {"text": "has more recently been\nbuilding gas and oil", "start": 1844.84, "duration": 2.61}, {"text": "infrastructure,\nthese yellow bars.", "start": 1847.45, "duration": 1.843}, {"text": "And you can see on\nthe right-hand side--", "start": 1849.293, "duration": 1.667}, {"text": "this is electricity\ngeneration from coal,", "start": 1850.96, "duration": 3.27}, {"text": "and that is overwhelmingly\ndominated by coal-fired power", "start": 1854.23, "duration": 2.85}, {"text": "plants built in China mostly\nin the last 12 or 14 years.", "start": 1857.08, "duration": 4.48}, {"text": "The reason why we\nuse this graph is", "start": 1861.56, "duration": 1.52}, {"text": "to look at the\nnature of the problem", "start": 1863.08, "duration": 1.5}, {"text": "and what particular sectors\nwe're going to have to tackle", "start": 1864.58, "duration": 2.863}, {"text": "or which particular\npower plants we have", "start": 1867.443, "duration": 1.667}, {"text": "to tackle to avoid creating more\ngreenhouse gas emissions that,", "start": 1869.11, "duration": 4.2}, {"text": "again, will put us beyond our\nParis Agreement targets, that", "start": 1873.31, "duration": 3.03}, {"text": "will then finally jeopardize\nthe climate of the planet.", "start": 1876.34, "duration": 6.89}, {"text": "So this brings me to\ncities, which is--", "start": 1883.23, "duration": 3.41}, {"text": "numerous recent studies show\nthat most US greenhouse gas", "start": 1886.64, "duration": 3.06}, {"text": "emissions or global\ngreenhouse gas", "start": 1889.7, "duration": 1.74}, {"text": "emissions in some of these\nstudies are from cities.", "start": 1891.44, "duration": 2.7}, {"text": "But the key point of this\nliterature I want to highlight", "start": 1894.14, "duration": 2.52}, {"text": "is that the exact\nproportion depends", "start": 1896.66, "duration": 1.86}, {"text": "on how and where you count.", "start": 1898.52, "duration": 2.75}, {"text": "The Jones et al.", "start": 1901.27, "duration": 1.11}, {"text": "2018 paper and the\nGoldstein et al 2020 paper", "start": 1902.38, "duration": 3.36}, {"text": "both find that higher incomes\nand lower population densities", "start": 1905.74, "duration": 3.36}, {"text": "are highly correlated\nwith higher carbon", "start": 1909.1, "duration": 2.01}, {"text": "footprints and energy use.", "start": 1911.11, "duration": 3.03}, {"text": "The Gurney et al 2018, 2020,\nand 2021 reports and papers", "start": 1914.14, "duration": 5.07}, {"text": "find that a majority\nof road and fossil fuel", "start": 1919.21, "duration": 2.7}, {"text": "infrastructure or use can\nbe associated with cities.", "start": 1921.91, "duration": 4.068}, {"text": "The Moran paper is\nquite interesting,", "start": 1925.978, "duration": 1.542}, {"text": "and it finds that, both\nin China and the US,", "start": 1927.52, "duration": 3.9}, {"text": "the largest 10 cities\nplus 5%, or the top 5%--", "start": 1931.42, "duration": 4.26}, {"text": "of suburban residents\nby income are", "start": 1935.68, "duration": 2.4}, {"text": "responsible for more than a\nmajority of the greenhouse", "start": 1938.08, "duration": 2.49}, {"text": "gas emissions from both\ncountries, China and the US,", "start": 1940.57, "duration": 3.39}, {"text": "which is to say that, if we\nfocused just on the largest 10", "start": 1943.96, "duration": 3.57}, {"text": "cities and the most\ncarbon-intensive suburbs, now", "start": 1947.53, "duration": 3.742}, {"text": "we could actually make\na significant difference", "start": 1951.272, "duration": 1.958}, {"text": "in the greenhouse gas\nemissions of the countries.", "start": 1953.23, "duration": 2.22}, {"text": "It is also kind of\nrecapping the moral argument", "start": 1955.45, "duration": 2.46}, {"text": "I made to you in the last\nclass, which is that the richest", "start": 1957.91, "duration": 3.69}, {"text": "people in both countries have a\ndisproportionate responsibility", "start": 1961.6, "duration": 4.65}, {"text": "to lower the greenhouse gas\nemissions just in the same way", "start": 1966.25, "duration": 2.61}, {"text": "that the US has a\ndisproportionate responsibility", "start": 1968.86, "duration": 2.28}, {"text": "to lower its greenhouse gas\nemissions relative to the rest", "start": 1971.14, "duration": 2.61}, {"text": "of the world.", "start": 1973.75, "duration": 1.17}, {"text": "Finally, the Seto in the\n2021 and the Wiedmann et al.", "start": 1974.92, "duration": 3.9}, {"text": "papers, 2021, show different\nresearch and planning", "start": 1978.82, "duration": 3.553}, {"text": "frameworks for how do we really\ncount these greenhouse gas", "start": 1982.373, "duration": 2.417}, {"text": "emissions.", "start": 1984.79, "duration": 0.5}, {"text": "And so there's debate\nabout how you count it,", "start": 1985.29, "duration": 2.23}, {"text": "but there's this emerging\nconsensus in the literature", "start": 1987.52, "duration": 3.06}, {"text": "that cities are responsible\nfor a large proportion", "start": 1990.58, "duration": 2.82}, {"text": "of greenhouse gas emissions\nin many countries,", "start": 1993.4, "duration": 2.98}, {"text": "including China and the US.", "start": 1996.38, "duration": 2.45}, {"text": "Just to highlight a\nfew of the key issues", "start": 1998.83, "duration": 1.8}, {"text": "why it's hard to get\nan exact proportion,", "start": 2000.63, "duration": 2.34}, {"text": "depends on different\ndefinitions of cities", "start": 2002.97, "duration": 2.16}, {"text": "or what an urban area is.", "start": 2005.13, "duration": 1.83}, {"text": "It depends which emissions\nyou count, upstream emissions,", "start": 2006.96, "duration": 3.24}, {"text": "like things that you import\nin the form of fuels or goods;", "start": 2010.2, "duration": 4.41}, {"text": "downstream emissions, the things\nthat you export out of the city", "start": 2014.61, "duration": 2.88}, {"text": "or waste energy or\nwaste products that", "start": 2017.49, "duration": 2.43}, {"text": "go outside of the city;\nand goods and services.", "start": 2019.92, "duration": 2.25}, {"text": "There's all different ways\nto count the emissions", "start": 2022.17, "duration": 1.56}, {"text": "from all of these things.", "start": 2023.73, "duration": 1.042}, {"text": "The C40 annual report that\nI assigned in the reading", "start": 2024.772, "duration": 3.668}, {"text": "gets to some of these issues.", "start": 2028.44, "duration": 2.77}, {"text": "Finally, some\ninteresting questions", "start": 2031.21, "duration": 1.88}, {"text": "that are not always\naccounted for-- cities", "start": 2033.09, "duration": 2.13}, {"text": "clearly shape local\nmicroclimates.", "start": 2035.22, "duration": 1.58}, {"text": "Do we count that as\npart of climate change,", "start": 2036.8, "duration": 2.57}, {"text": "because that actually changes\nhow people subsequently", "start": 2039.37, "duration": 2.27}, {"text": "use energy in cities?", "start": 2041.64, "duration": 1.222}, {"text": "And there's this kind of\nfundamental question--", "start": 2042.862, "duration": 1.958}, {"text": "how do you measure affluence?", "start": 2044.82, "duration": 1.56}, {"text": "Do you measure in terms\nof wealth or income?", "start": 2046.38, "duration": 2.25}, {"text": "I suspect if we measured\nthese in different ways,", "start": 2048.63, "duration": 2.819}, {"text": "you'd find different\nplaces responsible", "start": 2051.449, "duration": 2.551}, {"text": "for different levels of\ngreenhouse gas emissions.", "start": 2054.0, "duration": 2.699}, {"text": "Just again, to kind\nof make this argument", "start": 2056.699, "duration": 1.77}, {"text": "about how we measure\nthings matters", "start": 2058.469, "duration": 2.52}, {"text": "and also how intensity may\nshow us a different picture,", "start": 2060.989, "duration": 3.281}, {"text": "this is from the Gurney et al.", "start": 2064.27, "duration": 1.25}, {"text": "2020 paper.", "start": 2065.52, "duration": 1.44}, {"text": "The left-hand panel\nshows absolute emissions.", "start": 2066.96, "duration": 2.83}, {"text": "You can see the\nabsolute emissions", "start": 2069.79, "duration": 2.119}, {"text": "in this country basically\nalmost identically", "start": 2071.909, "duration": 3.0}, {"text": "mimics the spatial or\nurban spatial structure", "start": 2074.909, "duration": 3.031}, {"text": "of the country, where all the\nred areas and the left coast", "start": 2077.94, "duration": 5.07}, {"text": "are high concentrations\nof absolute emissions.", "start": 2083.01, "duration": 3.39}, {"text": "Of course, if you measure\non a per-capita basis,", "start": 2086.4, "duration": 2.1}, {"text": "you might say, OK,\nout West, people", "start": 2088.5, "duration": 1.83}, {"text": "are relatively inefficient.", "start": 2090.33, "duration": 1.758}, {"text": "But we should also\nhighlight the fact", "start": 2092.088, "duration": 1.542}, {"text": "that there's these\ninterrelationships", "start": 2093.63, "duration": 1.56}, {"text": "between these two areas.", "start": 2095.19, "duration": 1.87}, {"text": "Places out here in the West\nis a high concentration", "start": 2097.06, "duration": 3.08}, {"text": "of fossil fuel\nproduction/generation.", "start": 2100.14, "duration": 2.37}, {"text": "But where is that energy going?", "start": 2102.51, "duration": 2.19}, {"text": "That energy is going to cities.", "start": 2104.7, "duration": 1.68}, {"text": "And so we think back to MacKay's\nleft-hand bar of consumption.", "start": 2106.38, "duration": 4.71}, {"text": "I would argue to all the\nurban planners in the room--", "start": 2111.09, "duration": 2.68}, {"text": "and I've said this to my\ncolleagues in city government--", "start": 2113.77, "duration": 2.96}, {"text": "that we should not be\ncomplacent about the fact", "start": 2116.73, "duration": 2.19}, {"text": "that we think we have relatively\nlow per-capita emissions", "start": 2118.92, "duration": 3.72}, {"text": "in cities.", "start": 2122.64, "duration": 0.78}, {"text": "We have to be\nresponsible for the fact", "start": 2123.42, "duration": 2.04}, {"text": "that energy is being\nused elsewhere,", "start": 2125.46, "duration": 1.95}, {"text": "that we consume in the\nform of fuels, goods", "start": 2127.41, "duration": 3.27}, {"text": "and services, food, and\nwe export our waste also.", "start": 2130.68, "duration": 3.6}, {"text": "So that is the\nplace where cities", "start": 2134.28, "duration": 1.89}, {"text": "can have a big impact on\ngreenhouse gas emissions.", "start": 2136.17, "duration": 2.58}, {"text": "But it may be a different\nkind of efficiency.", "start": 2138.75, "duration": 2.01}, {"text": "We might have to think\nabout how much we consume,", "start": 2140.76, "duration": 2.94}, {"text": "why we consume energy, and how\ndo we do it more efficiently,", "start": 2143.7, "duration": 3.45}, {"text": "and, hopefully, ultimately\nreduce our consumption to meet", "start": 2147.15, "duration": 2.85}, {"text": "our decarbonization goals.", "start": 2150.0, "duration": 2.665}, {"text": "Finally, I'll just flash\nthrough the readings", "start": 2152.665, "duration": 1.875}, {"text": "quickly because we'll talk\nabout them more in class.", "start": 2154.54, "duration": 3.12}, {"text": "The Hsu et al 2019 paper--\nthis is actually not my paper.", "start": 2157.66, "duration": 3.12}, {"text": "It's written by a\ncolleague, Angel Hsu", "start": 2160.78, "duration": 2.7}, {"text": "at University of North Carolina.", "start": 2163.48, "duration": 1.77}, {"text": "It is a research roadmap for\nhow do we spend more time", "start": 2165.25, "duration": 2.94}, {"text": "or how do we spend more thinking\nabout quantifying the climate", "start": 2168.19, "duration": 3.96}, {"text": "mitigation actions that nonstate\nor subnational governments", "start": 2172.15, "duration": 4.68}, {"text": "could take.", "start": 2176.83, "duration": 0.69}, {"text": "And this is getting at\nthat measurement question.", "start": 2177.52, "duration": 2.38}, {"text": "How are we going to measure\ngreenhouse gas emissions?", "start": 2179.9, "duration": 2.42}, {"text": "And how are we going\nto measure what", "start": 2182.32, "duration": 1.5}, {"text": "action those entities take?", "start": 2183.82, "duration": 1.993}, {"text": "And just to give you\nan example, there's", "start": 2185.813, "duration": 1.667}, {"text": "different ways to count how\ncities take climate action", "start": 2187.48, "duration": 4.08}, {"text": "in comparison to state targets.", "start": 2191.56, "duration": 1.77}, {"text": "And those targets may\nbe different still", "start": 2193.33, "duration": 2.28}, {"text": "than national-level targets.", "start": 2195.61, "duration": 2.01}, {"text": "And so there's a question--\nare we going to double count?", "start": 2197.62, "duration": 2.91}, {"text": "In some cases, or,\nactually, most cases,", "start": 2200.53, "duration": 3.13}, {"text": "cities are more ambitious\nthan their states.", "start": 2203.66, "duration": 2.9}, {"text": "Cities are often more ambitious\nthan national governments.", "start": 2206.56, "duration": 3.53}, {"text": "We want to avoid\ndouble counting.", "start": 2210.09, "duration": 2.2}, {"text": "We want to assume--", "start": 2212.29, "duration": 1.23}, {"text": "we want to count\ncities considering", "start": 2213.52, "duration": 3.72}, {"text": "how those cities are going\nto act relative to cities", "start": 2217.24, "duration": 2.76}, {"text": "without targets.", "start": 2220.0, "duration": 1.27}, {"text": "So this paper will get at that.", "start": 2221.27, "duration": 1.97}, {"text": "We'll just talk\nabout more in class.", "start": 2223.24, "duration": 2.04}, {"text": "And this brings me to\nthis optional reading", "start": 2225.28, "duration": 2.73}, {"text": "by Markolf et al., which\nis \"Pledges and Progress.\"", "start": 2228.01, "duration": 3.93}, {"text": "This is a Brookings\nInstitution report.", "start": 2231.94, "duration": 1.98}, {"text": "It looks at the 100 largest\ncities across nine states.", "start": 2233.92, "duration": 3.21}, {"text": "They find that number of\ncities, these 100 cities,", "start": 2237.13, "duration": 3.3}, {"text": "have all set fairly ambitious\ngoals, everything on the blue", "start": 2240.43, "duration": 4.77}, {"text": "here on the right.", "start": 2245.2, "duration": 1.74}, {"text": "The parentheses shows you\nwhen they set the goal.", "start": 2246.94, "duration": 2.64}, {"text": "And you can see\nBoston, where we are--", "start": 2249.58, "duration": 2.85}, {"text": "actually, Cambridge is also\nin the graph somewhere.", "start": 2252.43, "duration": 2.61}, {"text": "But Boston,\nMassachusetts, in 2005--", "start": 2255.04, "duration": 2.19}, {"text": "so they're going to have\nan 80% reduction by 2050,", "start": 2257.23, "duration": 3.18}, {"text": "as all of these cities did,\nalso meeting the White House's", "start": 2260.41, "duration": 6.21}, {"text": "targets in 2016.", "start": 2266.62, "duration": 2.52}, {"text": "It's commensurate with the\nnational targets in 2016.", "start": 2269.14, "duration": 2.31}, {"text": "You can see a number\nof these cities", "start": 2271.45, "duration": 1.5}, {"text": "here in the left have set\nless ambitious targets--", "start": 2272.95, "duration": 2.79}, {"text": "50% reduction, let's\nsay 40% reduction.", "start": 2275.74, "duration": 3.15}, {"text": "But they may have\nmore closer targets.", "start": 2278.89, "duration": 3.31}, {"text": "So this might be an\ninterim goal on the way", "start": 2282.2, "duration": 2.09}, {"text": "to a more ambitious\ntarget down the road.", "start": 2284.29, "duration": 3.42}, {"text": "But the take-home from\nthis Markolf report--", "start": 2287.71, "duration": 2.7}, {"text": "and I'll let you\nlook at your leisure", "start": 2290.41, "duration": 1.602}, {"text": "because I think\nsome of you will be", "start": 2292.012, "duration": 1.458}, {"text": "quite interested in\nparticular cities--", "start": 2293.47, "duration": 2.033}, {"text": "you can see what\nthe difference is", "start": 2295.503, "duration": 1.417}, {"text": "between their current emissions\ninventory and their target", "start": 2296.92, "duration": 2.417}, {"text": "emissions.", "start": 2299.337, "duration": 0.733}, {"text": "And you can see in the\ncase of Chicago, Illinois,", "start": 2300.07, "duration": 3.24}, {"text": "they set a 2015-- they had a\n2015 greenhouse gas inventory.", "start": 2303.31, "duration": 4.8}, {"text": "They had a target emission in\nthe year of that inventory,", "start": 2308.11, "duration": 2.508}, {"text": "and it looks like\nChicago is emitting", "start": 2310.618, "duration": 1.542}, {"text": "about 50% more emissions\nthan they targeted in 2015.", "start": 2312.16, "duration": 4.08}, {"text": "I actually find this\nreport quite hopeful", "start": 2316.24, "duration": 2.1}, {"text": "because it takes a serious look\nat all these cities and says,", "start": 2318.34, "duration": 2.92}, {"text": "well, we should take\ncities seriously", "start": 2321.26, "duration": 2.27}, {"text": "in terms of the climate\naction goals we're studying.", "start": 2323.53, "duration": 2.4}, {"text": "But in order to\ntake them seriously,", "start": 2325.93, "duration": 1.87}, {"text": "we also have to hold them\naccording to the plans", "start": 2327.8, "duration": 2.51}, {"text": "that they're setting.", "start": 2330.31, "duration": 0.97}, {"text": "So it looks like\nBoston is closer", "start": 2331.28, "duration": 2.69}, {"text": "to its target of 10%\nhigher inventory emissions", "start": 2333.97, "duration": 3.63}, {"text": "than it had planned for in 2016.", "start": 2337.6, "duration": 3.21}, {"text": "That 10% hopefully gives us--\nor that inventory difference", "start": 2340.81, "duration": 4.08}, {"text": "gives us a good place\nto target our actions.", "start": 2344.89, "duration": 2.37}, {"text": "Other places, let's\nsay, Los Angeles--", "start": 2347.26, "duration": 1.86}, {"text": "looks like it's actually\nahead of its goals.", "start": 2349.12, "duration": 1.833}, {"text": "It's actually 10% less in terms\nof greenhouse gas emissions", "start": 2350.953, "duration": 3.237}, {"text": "than they planned for in 2013.", "start": 2354.19, "duration": 1.92}, {"text": "So cities-- looks like almost\noverwhelmingly temperate cities", "start": 2356.11, "duration": 3.72}, {"text": "except for Minneapolis,\nbut all of these fairly", "start": 2359.83, "duration": 2.97}, {"text": "temperate-region\ncities are doing", "start": 2362.8, "duration": 1.62}, {"text": "better than they expected.", "start": 2364.42, "duration": 1.41}, {"text": "Some of these cities here--", "start": 2365.83, "duration": 1.98}, {"text": "I guess Chicago is\na cold climate city,", "start": 2367.81, "duration": 2.46}, {"text": "and Tucson is the opposite.", "start": 2370.27, "duration": 1.59}, {"text": "But for different reasons,\nTucson and Chicago", "start": 2371.86, "duration": 2.7}, {"text": "are wildly over the goals\nthey set in 2014 and 2015.", "start": 2374.56, "duration": 5.22}, {"text": "And so I'll just stop here,\nand I will talk more in class", "start": 2379.78, "duration": 3.75}, {"text": "this week.", "start": 2383.53, "duration": 0.75}, {"text": "We'll talk the results\nof our carbon calculators", "start": 2384.28, "duration": 2.22}, {"text": "that you did for homework.", "start": 2386.5, "duration": 1.89}, {"text": "We will put some questions\nfor discussion on the board,", "start": 2388.39, "duration": 2.49}, {"text": "and we'll just start\nour discussion.", "start": 2390.88, "duration": 1.89}, {"text": "And we'll have some news\nitems to talk about in class.", "start": 2392.77, "duration": 2.92}, {"text": "Thank you very much.", "start": 2395.69, "duration": 1.05}, {"text": "I hope you guys have a\ngreat rest of your weekend--", "start": 2396.74, "duration": 3.77}]