plot_all_variance.py

"""Plot variance analysis results for SmolLM (Math), Qwen3 (Math), Maze."""

import matplotlib
matplotlib.use("Agg")
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import numpy as np
import os

SCRIPT_DIR = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))
OUTPUT_DIR = os.path.join(SCRIPT_DIR, "outputs")
os.makedirs(OUTPUT_DIR, exist_ok=True)

# ── Data ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
rollout_nums = [4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128]

smollm_math = {
    "blTrue":  [3.461569e-01, 3.488942e-01, 2.763410e-01, 2.600237e-01, 2.039304e-01, 1.596079e-01],
    "blFalse": [5.613685e-01, 4.680250e-01, 3.457040e-01, 2.965937e-01, 2.275286e-01, 1.723276e-01],
}

qwen3_math = {
    "blTrue":  [1.544762e-01, 1.679264e-01, 2.075920e-01, 1.788574e-01, 1.592376e-01, 1.314381e-01],
    "blFalse": [2.140592e-01, 2.190761e-01, 2.448343e-01, 2.002312e-01, 1.702958e-01, 1.390878e-01],
}

maze = {
    "blTrue":  [9.343412e-02, 7.531368e-02, 5.179188e-02, 4.027390e-02, 2.930888e-02, 2.354821e-02],
    "blFalse": [1.171640e-01, 8.123477e-02, 5.614680e-02, 4.236686e-02, 3.015591e-02, 2.521931e-02],
}

datasets = [
    ("SmolLM-360M (GSM8k)",        smollm_math),
    ("Qwen3-1.7B (Polaris-53K)",   qwen3_math),
    ("Qwen2-3M (Maze)",            maze),
]

# ── Style ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
plt.rcParams.update({
    "font.size": 15,
    "axes.titlesize": 18,
    "axes.labelsize": 16,
    "legend.fontsize": 14,
    "xtick.labelsize": 14,
    "ytick.labelsize": 14,
    "figure.dpi": 150,
    "savefig.dpi": 300,
    "font.family": "sans-serif",
})

RED = "#D32F2F"
AMBER = "#F9A825"

# ── Plot ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
fig, axes = plt.subplots(1, 3, figsize=(21, 6))

for ax, (title, data) in zip(axes, datasets):
    xs = np.array(rollout_nums)
    bl_true  = np.array([v if v is not None else np.nan for v in data["blTrue"]])
    bl_false = np.array([v if v is not None else np.nan for v in data["blFalse"]])

    ax.plot(xs, bl_true,  color=RED,   marker="*", markersize=18, linewidth=4,
            label="MaxRL", zorder=5)
    ax.plot(xs, bl_false, color=AMBER, marker="o", markersize=11, linewidth=4,
            label="MaxRL (w/o baseline)", zorder=4)

    ax.set_xscale("log", base=2)
    ax.set_xticks(rollout_nums)
    ax.set_xticklabels([str(n) for n in rollout_nums])
    ax.set_xlabel("Number of Rollouts", fontsize=16)
    ax.set_ylabel("Gradient Variance", fontsize=16)
    ax.set_title(title, fontsize=18, fontweight="bold", pad=12)
    ax.legend(loc="upper right", framealpha=0.9, edgecolor="gray")
    ax.grid(True, alpha=0.3, linestyle="--")
    ax.spines["top"].set_visible(False)
    ax.spines["right"].set_visible(False)

plt.tight_layout(w_pad=3)
out_path = os.path.join(OUTPUT_DIR, "variance_comparison_all.png")
plt.savefig(out_path, bbox_inches="tight")
plt.savefig(out_path.replace(".png", ".pdf"), bbox_inches="tight")
print(f"Saved to {out_path}")