{
"version": "v20",
"asOf": "2026-07-01",
"kr": {
"market": "KR",
"phase": "recovery",
"phaseLabel": "회복",
"confidence": "high",
"signals": [
"CLI 급등 (+1.10)"
],
"sectorStrategy": {
"high": "overweight",
"moderate": "overweight",
"defensive": "neutral",
"low": "neutral"
},
"transition": null,
"quadrant": {
"quadrant": "stagflation",
"quadrantLabel": "스태그플레이션",
"growth": "falling",
"growthSignal": -20.0,
"inflation": "rising",
"inflationSignal": 0.94,
"assetImplication": {
"equity": "underweight",
"bond": "underweight",
"commodity": "overweight",
"gold": "overweight",
"tips": "overweight",
"cash": "overweight"
},
"confidence": "high",
"description": "성장 둔화 + 물가 상승 — 금·TIPS·현금 방어, 주식·채권 불리"
},
"computedAt": "2026-06-30T23:30:11.099509+00:00"
},
"us": {
"market": "US",
"phase": "slowdown",
"phaseLabel": "둔화",
"confidence": "medium",
"signals": [
"HY 스프레드 안정 (280bp)",
"수익률곡선 평탄화 (+0.30%)",
"금 급등 (YoY +37.3%)",
"CPI 4.3% — 물가 과열, 둔화 전조"
],
"sectorStrategy": {
"defensive": "overweight",
"moderate": "neutral",
"high": "underweight",
"low": "neutral"
},
"transition": {
"from": "slowdown",
"to": "contraction",
"progress": 33,
"triggered": [
"gold_surging"
],
"pending": [
"vix_spiking",
"term_spread_inverted"
]
},
"quadrant": {
"quadrant": "reflation",
"quadrantLabel": "리플레이션",
"growth": "rising",
"growthSignal": 662678.0,
"inflation": "rising",
"inflationSignal": 26.71,
"assetImplication": {
"equity": "overweight",
"bond": "underweight",
"commodity": "overweight",
"gold": "neutral",
"tips": "overweight",
"cash": "underweight"
},
"confidence": "high",
"description": "성장 가속 + 물가 상승 — 원자재·EM 주식·TIPS 유리, 명목채 불리"
},
"computedAt": "2026-06-30T23:30:11.198839+00:00"
},
"transmission": {
"market": "KR",
"sectorKey": null,
"asOf": "2026-06-30",
"drivers": [
{
"id": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
"labelKr": "미국 HY 스프레드",
"source": "FRED",
"sourceSeriesId": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
"market": "US",
"unit": "%p",
"group": "credit",
"transform": "level_and_delta_1m",
"directionSemantics": "상승은 신용위험과 자금조달 압력 확대 신호다.",
"defaultLagMonths": [
0,
3
],
"releaseLagDays": 1,
"staleAfterDays": 7,
"requiredAsOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
"sourceLineage": {
"source": "FRED",
"sourceSeriesId": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
"date": "2026-06-29",
"value": 2.8,
"unit": "%p",
"artifactPath": "macro/fred/observations.parquet",
"asOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
"status": "observed"
}
},
{
"id": "BASE_RATE",
"labelKr": "한국 기준금리",
"source": "ECOS",
"sourceSeriesId": "BASE_RATE",
"market": "KR",
"unit": "%",
"group": "rates",
"transform": "level_and_delta_3m",
"directionSemantics": "상승은 이자비용, 차입 재조달, 할인율 압력을 키운다.",
"defaultLagMonths": [
3,
12
],
"releaseLagDays": 1,
"staleAfterDays": 45,
"requiredAsOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
"sourceLineage": {
"source": "ECOS",
"sourceSeriesId": "BASE_RATE",
"date": "2026-06-28",
"value": 2.5,
"unit": "%",
"artifactPath": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet",
"asOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
"status": "observed"
}
},
{
"id": "CPI",
"labelKr": "소비자물가 YoY",
"source": "ECOS",
"sourceSeriesId": "CPI",
"market": "KR",
"unit": "%",
"group": "inflation",
"transform": "yoy_and_mom_1m",
"directionSemantics": "상승은 가격 전가 여지와 실질수요 둔화 압력을 동시에 만든다.",
"defaultLagMonths": [
1,
6
],
"releaseLagDays": 20,
"staleAfterDays": 75,
"requiredAsOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
"sourceLineage": {
"source": "ECOS",
"sourceSeriesId": "CPI",
"date": "2026-05-01",
"value": 119.92,
"unit": "%",
"artifactPath": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet",
"asOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
"status": "observed"
}
},
{
"id": "DCOILWTICO",
"labelKr": "WTI",
"source": "FRED",
"sourceSeriesId": "DCOILWTICO",
"market": "GLOBAL",
"unit": "$",
"group": "commodity",
"transform": "level_and_pct_1m",
"directionSemantics": "상승은 에너지 매출에는 증가 요인, 제조·물류 원가에는 압력 요인일 수 있다.",
"defaultLagMonths": [
0,
3
],
"releaseLagDays": 1,
"staleAfterDays": 7,
"requiredAsOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
"sourceLineage": {
"source": "FRED",
"sourceSeriesId": "DCOILWTICO",
"date": "2026-06-22",
"value": 78.94,
"unit": "$",
"artifactPath": "macro/fred/observations.parquet",
"asOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
"status": "observed"
}
},
{
"id": "EXPORT",
"labelKr": "수출 YoY",
"source": "ECOS",
"sourceSeriesId": "EXPORT",
"market": "KR",
"unit": "%",
"group": "trade",
"transform": "yoy_and_mom_1m",
"directionSemantics": "상승은 외부수요와 제조업 매출 환경 개선 신호다.",
"defaultLagMonths": [
1,
6
],
"releaseLagDays": 10,
"staleAfterDays": 45,
"requiredAsOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
"sourceLineage": {
"source": "ECOS",
"sourceSeriesId": "EXPORT",
"date": "2026-04-01",
"value": 90586.8,
"unit": "%",
"artifactPath": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet",
"asOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
"status": "observed"
}
},
{
"id": "USDKRW",
"labelKr": "원/달러",
"source": "ECOS",
"sourceSeriesId": "USDKRW",
"market": "KR",
"unit": "원",
"group": "FX",
"transform": "level_and_mom_1m",
"directionSemantics": "상승은 원화 약세다. 수출 환산매출과 수입원가를 동시에 흔든다.",
"defaultLagMonths": [
0,
3
],
"releaseLagDays": 1,
"staleAfterDays": 10,
"requiredAsOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
"sourceLineage": {
"source": "ECOS",
"sourceSeriesId": "USDKRW",
"date": "2026-06-30",
"value": 1549.4,
"unit": "원",
"artifactPath": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet",
"asOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
"status": "observed"
}
}
],
"edges": [
{
"id": "fx-export-revenue",
"driverId": "USDKRW",
"market": "KR",
"sectorKeys": [
"semiconductor",
"auto",
"shipbuilding",
"chemical",
"battery"
],
"channel": "revenue",
"financialLine": "매출 성장률 / 환산손익",
"valuationLever": "growth",
"sign": "mixed",
"lagMonths": [
0,
3
],
"evidenceLevel": "sectorPrior",
"confidence": "low",
"requiredCompanyEvidence": [
"해외 매출 비중",
"외화 매출·매입 통화",
"FX 손익 주석"
],
"falsifiers": [
"달러 원가 비중이 해외 매출 효과를 상쇄",
"헤지 정책으로 환산 민감도 약화"
],
"sourceRefs": [
"driver:USDKRW",
"macro.transmission:sectorPrior:fx-export"
],
"evidenceLabel": "PRIOR",
"sourceRef": "macro.transmission:edge:fx-export-revenue"
},
{
"id": "export-demand-revenue",
"driverId": "EXPORT",
"market": "KR",
"sectorKeys": [
"semiconductor",
"auto",
"shipbuilding",
"chemical",
"battery",
"logistics"
],
"channel": "revenue",
"financialLine": "매출 성장률 / 가동률",
"valuationLever": "growth",
"sign": "positive",
"lagMonths": [
1,
6
],
"evidenceLevel": "observed",
"confidence": "medium",
"requiredCompanyEvidence": [
"수출 매출",
"주요 제품 수요",
"재고와 수주"
],
"falsifiers": [
"내수 매출 중심",
"재고 과잉으로 출하 증가가 매출로 이어지지 않음"
],
"sourceRefs": [
"driver:EXPORT",
"macro.transmission:observed:export-demand"
],
"evidenceLabel": "OBS",
"sourceRef": "macro.transmission:edge:export-demand-revenue"
},
{
"id": "rate-debt-interest",
"driverId": "BASE_RATE",
"market": "KR",
"sectorKeys": [
"all"
],
"channel": "balanceSheet",
"financialLine": "이자비용 / 차입 재조달",
"valuationLever": "discountRate",
"sign": "negative",
"lagMonths": [
3,
12
],
"evidenceLevel": "template",
"confidence": "low",
"requiredCompanyEvidence": [
"부채비율",
"단기차입금",
"이자보상배율",
"차입금 만기"
],
"falsifiers": [
"순현금 기업",
"고정금리 장기차입 중심",
"이자수익이 비용을 상쇄"
],
"sourceRefs": [
"driver:BASE_RATE",
"macro.transmission:template:rate-debt"
],
"evidenceLabel": "TPL",
"sourceRef": "macro.transmission:edge:rate-debt-interest"
},
{
"id": "rate-bank-margin",
"driverId": "BASE_RATE",
"market": "KR",
"sectorKeys": [
"finance",
"bank"
],
"channel": "margin",
"financialLine": "순이자마진 / 조달비용",
"valuationLever": "margin",
"sign": "mixed",
"lagMonths": [
1,
6
],
"evidenceLevel": "sectorPrior",
"confidence": "low",
"requiredCompanyEvidence": [
"예대금리차",
"조달 구조",
"대손비용",
"금리민감자산"
],
"falsifiers": [
"조달비용이 대출금리보다 빠르게 상승",
"대손비용 증가가 NIM 개선을 상쇄"
],
"sourceRefs": [
"driver:BASE_RATE",
"macro.transmission:sectorPrior:bank-rate"
],
"evidenceLabel": "PRIOR",
"sourceRef": "macro.transmission:edge:rate-bank-margin"
},
{
"id": "hy-risk-premium",
"driverId": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
"market": "US",
"sectorKeys": [
"all"
],
"channel": "valuation",
"financialLine": "신용스프레드 / 위험프리미엄",
"valuationLever": "riskPremium",
"sign": "negative",
"lagMonths": [
0,
3
],
"evidenceLevel": "observed",
"confidence": "medium",
"requiredCompanyEvidence": [
"신용등급",
"차입 의존도",
"만기 구조",
"현금 보유"
],
"falsifiers": [
"무차입 또는 충분한 현금",
"방어적 현금흐름",
"정부/모회사 지원 가능성"
],
"sourceRefs": [
"driver:BAMLH0A0HYM2",
"macro.transmission:observed:credit-spread"
],
"evidenceLabel": "OBS",
"sourceRef": "macro.transmission:edge:hy-risk-premium"
},
{
"id": "oil-margin-cost",
"driverId": "DCOILWTICO",
"market": "GLOBAL",
"sectorKeys": [
"chemical",
"auto",
"logistics",
"food",
"energy",
"utility"
],
"channel": "margin",
"financialLine": "매출총이익률 / 원가율",
"valuationLever": "margin",
"sign": "mixed",
"lagMonths": [
0,
3
],
"evidenceLevel": "sectorPrior",
"confidence": "low",
"requiredCompanyEvidence": [
"원재료 비중",
"가격 전가력",
"재고 회전",
"연료비 비중"
],
"falsifiers": [
"원가 전가 계약",
"재고평가 이익",
"에너지 매출 비중 우세"
],
"sourceRefs": [
"driver:DCOILWTICO",
"macro.transmission:sectorPrior:oil-margin"
],
"evidenceLabel": "PRIOR",
"sourceRef": "macro.transmission:edge:oil-margin-cost"
},
{
"id": "cpi-utility-tariff",
"driverId": "CPI",
"market": "KR",
"sectorKeys": [
"utility",
"food",
"retail"
],
"channel": "margin",
"financialLine": "판가 / 비용 전가",
"valuationLever": "margin",
"sign": "mixed",
"lagMonths": [
1,
6
],
"evidenceLevel": "template",
"confidence": "low",
"requiredCompanyEvidence": [
"가격 전가력",
"규제 요금",
"수요 탄력성"
],
"falsifiers": [
"가격 규제로 판가 전가 불가",
"실질소득 둔화로 물량 감소"
],
"sourceRefs": [
"driver:CPI",
"macro.transmission:template:cpi-margin"
],
"evidenceLabel": "TPL",
"sourceRef": "macro.transmission:edge:cpi-utility-tariff"
}
],
"regimeEvidence": [
{
"id": "driver:BAMLH0A0HYM2",
"driverId": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
"status": "observed",
"date": "2026-06-29",
"value": 2.8,
"unit": "%p",
"sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#BAMLH0A0HYM2"
},
{
"id": "driver:BASE_RATE",
"driverId": "BASE_RATE",
"status": "observed",
"date": "2026-06-28",
"value": 2.5,
"unit": "%",
"sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#BASE_RATE"
},
{
"id": "driver:CPI",
"driverId": "CPI",
"status": "observed",
"date": "2026-05-01",
"value": 119.92,
"unit": "%",
"sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#CPI"
},
{
"id": "driver:DCOILWTICO",
"driverId": "DCOILWTICO",
"status": "observed",
"date": "2026-06-22",
"value": 78.94,
"unit": "$",
"sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#DCOILWTICO"
},
{
"id": "driver:EXPORT",
"driverId": "EXPORT",
"status": "observed",
"date": "2026-04-01",
"value": 90586.8,
"unit": "%",
"sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#EXPORT"
},
{
"id": "driver:USDKRW",
"driverId": "USDKRW",
"status": "observed",
"date": "2026-06-30",
"value": 1549.4,
"unit": "원",
"sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#USDKRW"
}
],
"aliases": {
"KRW_USD": "USDKRW",
"BASE_RATE_KR": "BASE_RATE",
"WTI": "DCOILWTICO",
"HY_SPREAD": "BAMLH0A0HYM2"
},
"sourceRefs": [
"dartlab://macro/transmission",
"ui/packages/contracts/src/macro.ts::MACRO_SERIES",
"macro/{ecos,fred}/observations.parquet"
],
"missing": [],
"version": "v1"
},
"sectorTailwind": {
"automotive": {
"kr": 0.4,
"us": -0.3,
"blended": 0.12
},
"biotech": {
"kr": 0.0,
"us": 0.2,
"blended": 0.08
},
"chemicals": {
"kr": 0.3,
"us": -0.2,
"blended": 0.1
},
"construction": {
"kr": 0.5,
"us": -0.4,
"blended": 0.14
},
"display": {
"kr": 0.3,
"us": -0.2,
"blended": 0.1
},
"energy": {
"kr": 0.3,
"us": 0.1,
"blended": 0.22
},
"finance": {
"kr": 0.4,
"us": -0.1,
"blended": 0.2
},
"it_software": {
"kr": 0.4,
"us": 0.1,
"blended": 0.28
},
"retail": {
"kr": 0.3,
"us": -0.2,
"blended": 0.1
},
"semiconductor": {
"kr": 0.5,
"us": -0.2,
"blended": 0.22
},
"shipbuilding": {
"kr": 0.3,
"us": -0.1,
"blended": 0.14
},
"steel": {
"kr": 0.4,
"us": -0.3,
"blended": 0.12
}
},
"regime": {
"kr": {
"market": "KR",
"computedAt": "2026-06-30T23:30:18.249573+00:00",
"forecast": {
"models": {
"lei": {
"cliMomentum": 1.1,
"cliLevel": 127.5,
"growthApprox": null,
"growthLabel": null,
"asOf": "2026-04-01",
"staleAfterDays": 75
}
},
"missing": [
{
"id": "probit",
"status": "notApplicable",
"reason": "US 전용"
},
{
"id": "sahm",
"status": "notApplicable",
"reason": "US 전용"
},
{
"id": "hamilton",
"status": "단위 parity 미확정·표시 보류",
"reason": "GROWTH↔A191RL1Q225SBEA 단위 동일성 미확정"
}
]
},
"rates": {
"missing": [
{
"id": "yieldCurve",
"status": "notApplicable",
"reason": "US 전용"
}
]
}
},
"us": {
"market": "US",
"computedAt": "2026-06-30T23:30:18.307123+00:00",
"forecast": {
"models": {
"probit": {
"probability": 0.1856,
"probabilityRounded": 0.2,
"zone": "moderate",
"zoneLabel": "보통",
"spread": 0.57,
"horizon": "12M",
"timeKind": "leading",
"precisionNote": "Estrella-Mishkin 고정계수·표준오차 미산출(점추정)",
"asOf": "2026-06-30",
"seriesId": "T10Y3M",
"staleAfterDays": 7
},
"sahm": {
"value": 0.1,
"triggered": false,
"zone": "normal",
"zoneLabel": "정상",
"horizon": "realtime",
"timeKind": "trigger(동행)",
"asOf": "2026-05-01",
"seriesId": "UNRATE",
"staleAfterDays": 45
},
"lei": {
"level": 6282235.69,
"mom6m": null,
"signal": "expansion",
"signalLabel": "확장",
"availableComponents": 10,
"totalComponents": 10,
"overlapNote": "term-spread·initial-claims 내포(probit/Sahm 부분 상관)",
"horizon": "6-9M",
"timeKind": "leading",
"asOf": "2026-05-01",
"staleAfterDays": 75
},
"hamilton": {
"timeKind": "retrospective",
"horizon": "동행",
"staleAfterDays": 120,
"revisionLabel": "분기 GDP·수정 대상",
"asOf": "2026-01-01",
"seriesId": "A191RL1Q225SBEA",
"seriesSource": "FRED",
"separation": 0.085,
"contractionProb": null,
"converged": true,
"status": "레짐 분리 약함"
}
},
"missing": []
},
"rates": {
"spread10y3m": 0.57,
"sign": "+",
"curveShape": "steep_normal",
"curveShapeLabel": "가파른정상",
"curveSource": "NelsonSiegel.interpretation",
"asOf": "2026-06-30",
"seriesId": "T10Y3M",
"staleAfterDays": 7,
"missing": []
},
"gar": {
"status": "표본 부족·표시 보류"
},
"regimeBand": {
"status": "레짐 분리 약함",
"converged": true,
"separation": 0.085
}
}
}
}