갱신: dashboards JSON (mapBuild)

landing/dashboards/macro.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
 "version": "v20",
-"asOf": "2026-08-13",
+"asOf": "2026-08-14",
 "kr": {
 "market": "KR",
 "phase": null,
@@ -18,7 +18,7 @@
 "quadrant": "deflation",
 "quadrantLabel": "디플레이션",
 "growth": "falling",
-"growthSignal": -20.0,
+"growthSignal": -24.0,
 "inflation": "falling",
 "inflationSignal": -0.13,
 "assetImplication": {
@@ -32,21 +32,22 @@
 "confidence": "medium",
 "description": "성장 둔화 + 물가 하락 — 장기 국채 최적, 주식·원자재 불리"
 },
-"computedAt": "2026-08-11T22:42:57.572743+00:00"
+"computedAt": "2026-08-14T00:01:42.176839+00:00"
 },
 "us": {
 "market": "US",
 "phase": "expansion",
 "phaseLabel": "확장",
-"confidence": "low",
+"confidence": "medium",
 "status": "observed",
 "observedInputs": 7,
 "totalInputs": 8,
 "signals": [
-"HY 스프레드 안정 (270bp)",
+"HY 스프레드 안정 (271bp)",
 "수익률곡선 평탄화 (+0.48%)",
+"VIX 안정 (14.6)",
 "금 급등 (YoY +27.9%)",
-"CPI 3.7% — 인플레 동반 확장"
+"CPI 3.5% — 인플레 동반 확장"
 ],
 "sectorStrategy": {
 "high": "overweight",
@@ -73,7 +74,7 @@
 "growth": "rising",
 "growthSignal": 656497.0,
 "inflation": "rising",
-"inflationSignal": 25.52,
+"inflationSignal": 24.83,
 "assetImplication": {
 "equity": "overweight",
 "bond": "underweight",
@@ -85,15 +86,15 @@
 "confidence": "high",
 "description": "성장 가속 + 물가 상승 — 원자재·EM 주식·TIPS 유리, 명목채 불리"
 },
-"computedAt": "2026-08-11T22:42:57.686310+00:00"
+"computedAt": "2026-08-14T00:01:42.288232+00:00"
 },
 "transmission": {
 "target": "KR:market",
 "stockCode": null,
 "market": "KR",
 "sectorKey": null,
-"asOf": "2026-08-13",
-"dataAsOf": "2026-08-11",
+"asOf": "2026-08-14",
+"dataAsOf": "2026-08-13",
 "drivers": [
 {
 "id": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
@@ -115,17 +116,17 @@
 "sourceLineage": {
 "source": "FRED",
 "sourceSeriesId": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
-"date": "2026-08-10",
-"value": 2.7,
-"previousDate": "2026-08-07",
-"previousValue": 2.7,
-"change": 0.0,
+"date": "2026-08-12",
+"value": 2.71,
+"previousDate": "2026-08-11",
+"previousValue": 2.72,
+"change": -0.010000000000000231,
 "unit": "%p",
 "artifactPath": "macro/fred/observations.parquet",
 "asOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
 "status": "observed"
 },
-"signal": "flat"
+"signal": "falling"
 },
 {
 "id": "BASE_RATE",
@@ -147,9 +148,9 @@
 "sourceLineage": {
 "source": "ECOS",
 "sourceSeriesId": "BASE_RATE",
-"date": "2026-08-10",
+"date": "2026-08-11",
 "value": 2.75,
-"previousDate": "2026-08-09",
+"previousDate": "2026-08-10",
 "previousValue": 2.75,
 "change": 0.0,
 "unit": "%",
@@ -211,17 +212,17 @@
 "sourceLineage": {
 "source": "FRED",
 "sourceSeriesId": "DCOILWTICO",
-"date": "2026-08-03",
-"value": 81.96,
-"previousDate": "2026-07-31",
-"previousValue": 86.16,
-"change": -4.200000000000003,
+"date": "2026-08-11",
+"value": 84.77,
+"previousDate": "2026-08-10",
+"previousValue": 83.76,
+"change": 1.009999999999991,
 "unit": "$",
 "artifactPath": "macro/fred/observations.parquet",
 "asOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
 "status": "observed"
 },
-"signal": "falling"
+"signal": "rising"
 },
 {
 "id": "EXPORT",
@@ -275,17 +276,17 @@
 "sourceLineage": {
 "source": "ECOS",
 "sourceSeriesId": "USDKRW",
-"date": "2026-08-11",
-"value": 1416.0,
-"previousDate": "2026-08-10",
-"previousValue": 1418.4,
-"change": -2.400000000000091,
+"date": "2026-08-13",
+"value": 1419.4,
+"previousDate": "2026-08-12",
+"previousValue": 1415.7,
+"change": 3.7000000000000455,
 "unit": "원",
 "artifactPath": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet",
 "asOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
 "status": "observed"
 },
-"signal": "falling"
+"signal": "rising"
 }
 ],
 "edges": [
@@ -325,7 +326,7 @@
 ],
 "evidenceLabel": "PRIOR",
 "sourceRef": "macro.transmission:edge:fx-export-revenue",
-"driverSignal": "falling",
+"driverSignal": "rising",
 "impactDirection": "twoSided",
 "resolvedEvidenceLevel": "sectorPrior",
 "companyEvidenceCoverage": 0.0,
@@ -492,8 +493,8 @@
 ],
 "evidenceLabel": "OBS",
 "sourceRef": "macro.transmission:edge:hy-risk-premium",
-"driverSignal": "flat",
-"impactDirection": "unresolved",
+"driverSignal": "falling",
+"impactDirection": "tailwind",
 "resolvedEvidenceLevel": "observed",
 "companyEvidenceCoverage": 0.0,
 "matchedCompanyRequirements": [],
@@ -538,7 +539,7 @@
 ],
 "evidenceLabel": "PRIOR",
 "sourceRef": "macro.transmission:edge:oil-margin-cost",
-"driverSignal": "falling",
+"driverSignal": "rising",
 "impactDirection": "twoSided",
 "resolvedEvidenceLevel": "sectorPrior",
 "companyEvidenceCoverage": 0.0,
@@ -592,8 +593,8 @@
 "id": "driver:BAMLH0A0HYM2",
 "driverId": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
 "status": "observed",
-"date": "2026-08-10",
-"value": 2.7,
+"date": "2026-08-12",
+"value": 2.71,
 "unit": "%p",
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#BAMLH0A0HYM2"
 },
@@ -601,7 +602,7 @@
 "id": "driver:BASE_RATE",
 "driverId": "BASE_RATE",
 "status": "observed",
-"date": "2026-08-10",
+"date": "2026-08-11",
 "value": 2.75,
 "unit": "%",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#BASE_RATE"
@@ -619,8 +620,8 @@
 "id": "driver:DCOILWTICO",
 "driverId": "DCOILWTICO",
 "status": "observed",
-"date": "2026-08-03",
-"value": 81.96,
+"date": "2026-08-11",
+"value": 84.77,
 "unit": "$",
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#DCOILWTICO"
 },
@@ -637,8 +638,8 @@
 "id": "driver:USDKRW",
 "driverId": "USDKRW",
 "status": "observed",
-"date": "2026-08-11",
-"value": 1416.0,
+"date": "2026-08-13",
+"value": 1419.4,
 "unit": "원",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#USDKRW"
 }
@@ -666,10 +667,10 @@
 "version": "1"
 },
 "time": {
-"asOf": "2026-08-13",
-"dataAsOf": "2026-08-11",
+"asOf": "2026-08-14",
+"dataAsOf": "2026-08-13",
 "period": null,
-"knowledgeBoundary": "2026-08-13"
+"knowledgeBoundary": "2026-08-14"
 },
 "status": "partial",
 "conclusion": {
@@ -685,10 +686,10 @@
 {
 "id": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
 "label": "미국 HY 스프레드",
-"value": 2.7,
+"value": 2.71,
 "unit": "%p",
-"signal": "flat",
-"change": 0.0,
+"signal": "falling",
+"change": -0.010000000000000231,
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#BAMLH0A0HYM2"
 },
 {
@@ -712,10 +713,10 @@
 {
 "id": "DCOILWTICO",
 "label": "WTI",
-"value": 81.96,
+"value": 84.77,
 "unit": "$",
-"signal": "falling",
-"change": -4.200000000000003,
+"signal": "rising",
+"change": 1.009999999999991,
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#DCOILWTICO"
 },
 {
@@ -730,10 +731,10 @@
 {
 "id": "USDKRW",
 "label": "원/달러",
-"value": 1416.0,
+"value": 1419.4,
 "unit": "원",
-"signal": "falling",
-"change": -2.400000000000091,
+"signal": "rising",
+"change": 3.7000000000000455,
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#USDKRW"
 }
 ],
@@ -744,7 +745,7 @@
 "kind": "macroObservation",
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#BAMLH0A0HYM2",
 "status": "observed",
-"observedAt": "2026-08-10",
+"observedAt": "2026-08-12",
 "detail": "미국 HY 스프레드 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
 },
 {
@@ -752,7 +753,7 @@
 "kind": "macroObservation",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#BASE_RATE",
 "status": "observed",
-"observedAt": "2026-08-10",
+"observedAt": "2026-08-11",
 "detail": "한국 기준금리 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
 },
 {
@@ -768,7 +769,7 @@
 "kind": "macroObservation",
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#DCOILWTICO",
 "status": "observed",
-"observedAt": "2026-08-03",
+"observedAt": "2026-08-11",
 "detail": "WTI 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
 },
 {
@@ -784,7 +785,7 @@
 "kind": "macroObservation",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#USDKRW",
 "status": "observed",
-"observedAt": "2026-08-11",
+"observedAt": "2026-08-13",
 "detail": "원/달러 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
 }
 ],
@@ -978,7 +979,7 @@
 "regime": {
 "kr": {
 "market": "KR",
-"computedAt": "2026-08-11T22:43:02.559672+00:00",
+"computedAt": "2026-08-14T00:01:47.190378+00:00",
 "forecast": {
 "models": {
 "lei": {
@@ -1020,19 +1021,19 @@
 },
 "us": {
 "market": "US",
-"computedAt": "2026-08-11T22:43:02.838751+00:00",
+"computedAt": "2026-08-14T00:01:47.461679+00:00",
 "forecast": {
 "models": {
 "probit": {
-"probability": 0.1478,
+"probability": 0.1552,
 "probabilityRounded": 0.15,
-"zone": "low",
-"zoneLabel": "낮음",
-"spread": 0.81,
+"zone": "moderate",
+"zoneLabel": "보통",
+"spread": 0.76,
 "horizon": "12M",
 "timeKind": "leading",
 "precisionNote": "Estrella-Mishkin 고정계수·표준오차 미산출(점추정)",
-"asOf": "2026-08-11",
+"asOf": "2026-08-13",
 "seriesId": "T10Y3M",
 "staleAfterDays": 7
 },
@@ -1048,7 +1049,7 @@
 "staleAfterDays": 45
 },
 "lei": {
-"level": 6223626.97,
+"level": 6223615.23,
 "mom6m": null,
 "signal": "expansion",
 "signalLabel": "확장",
@@ -1077,26 +1078,26 @@
 "missing": []
 },
 "rates": {
-"spread10y3m": 0.81,
+"spread10y3m": 0.76,
 "sign": "+",
 "curveShape": "steep_normal",
 "curveShapeLabel": "가파른정상",
 "curveSource": "NelsonSiegel.interpretation",
-"asOf": "2026-08-11",
+"asOf": "2026-08-13",
 "seriesId": "T10Y3M",
 "staleAfterDays": 7,
 "missing": []
 },
 "gar": {
-"gar5": -0.46,
+"gar5": -0.48,
 "gar25": 1.31,
 "median": 2.08,
 "gar75": 2.84,
 "gar95": 4.67,
-"skewness": 0.05,
+"skewness": 0.03,
 "tailRisk": "moderate",
 "tailRiskLabel": "보통",
-"currentFCI": -0.277,
+"currentFCI": -0.279,
 "observations": 98,
 "horizon": 4,
 "timeKind": "forward",