갱신: dashboards JSON (mapBuild)

landing/dashboards/macro.json

@@ -1,21 +1,38 @@
 {
 "version": "v20",
-"asOf": "2026-08-08",
+"asOf": "2026-08-09",
 "kr": {
 "market": "KR",
 "phase": null,
 "phaseLabel": "판정불가",
 "confidence": "unavailable",
 "status": "unavailable",
-"observedInputs": 0,
+"observedInputs": 1,
 "totalInputs": 8,
 "signals": [
-"사이클 판정 근거 부족 (0/8)"
+"사이클 판정 근거 부족 (1/8)"
 ],
 "sectorStrategy": {},
 "transition": null,
-"quadrant": null,
-"computedAt": "2026-08-07T23:55:30.247151+00:00"
+"quadrant": {
+"quadrant": "deflation",
+"quadrantLabel": "디플레이션",
+"growth": "falling",
+"growthSignal": -20.0,
+"inflation": "falling",
+"inflationSignal": -0.13,
+"assetImplication": {
+"equity": "underweight",
+"bond": "overweight",
+"commodity": "underweight",
+"gold": "neutral",
+"tips": "underweight",
+"cash": "neutral"
+},
+"confidence": "medium",
+"description": "성장 둔화 + 물가 하락 — 장기 국채 최적, 주식·원자재 불리"
+},
+"computedAt": "2026-08-08T22:21:47.381958+00:00"
 },
 "us": {
 "market": "US",
@@ -68,15 +85,15 @@
 "confidence": "high",
 "description": "성장 가속 + 물가 상승 — 원자재·EM 주식·TIPS 유리, 명목채 불리"
 },
-"computedAt": "2026-08-07T23:55:30.352230+00:00"
+"computedAt": "2026-08-08T22:21:47.489484+00:00"
 },
 "transmission": {
 "target": "KR:market",
 "stockCode": null,
 "market": "KR",
 "sectorKey": null,
-"asOf": "2026-08-08",
-"dataAsOf": "2026-08-06",
+"asOf": "2026-08-09",
+"dataAsOf": "2026-08-07",
 "drivers": [
 {
 "id": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
@@ -130,17 +147,17 @@
 "sourceLineage": {
 "source": "ECOS",
 "sourceSeriesId": "BASE_RATE",
-"date": null,
-"value": null,
-"previousDate": null,
-"previousValue": null,
-"change": null,
+"date": "2026-08-06",
+"value": 2.75,
+"previousDate": "2026-08-05",
+"previousValue": 2.75,
+"change": 0.0,
 "unit": "%",
 "artifactPath": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet",
 "asOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
-"status": "missing"
+"status": "observed"
 },
-"signal": "missing"
+"signal": "flat"
 },
 {
 "id": "CPI",
@@ -162,17 +179,17 @@
 "sourceLineage": {
 "source": "ECOS",
 "sourceSeriesId": "CPI",
-"date": null,
-"value": null,
-"previousDate": null,
-"previousValue": null,
-"change": null,
+"date": "2026-07-01",
+"value": 119.77,
+"previousDate": "2026-06-01",
+"previousValue": 119.99,
+"change": -0.21999999999999886,
 "unit": "%",
 "artifactPath": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet",
 "asOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
-"status": "missing"
+"status": "observed"
 },
-"signal": "missing"
+"signal": "falling"
 },
 {
 "id": "DCOILWTICO",
@@ -226,17 +243,17 @@
 "sourceLineage": {
 "source": "ECOS",
 "sourceSeriesId": "EXPORT",
-"date": null,
-"value": null,
-"previousDate": null,
-"previousValue": null,
-"change": null,
+"date": "2026-06-01",
+"value": 112371.0,
+"previousDate": "2026-05-01",
+"previousValue": 94342.2,
+"change": 18028.800000000003,
 "unit": "%",
 "artifactPath": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet",
 "asOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
-"status": "missing"
+"status": "observed"
 },
-"signal": "missing"
+"signal": "rising"
 },
 {
 "id": "USDKRW",
@@ -258,17 +275,17 @@
 "sourceLineage": {
 "source": "ECOS",
 "sourceSeriesId": "USDKRW",
-"date": null,
-"value": null,
-"previousDate": null,
-"previousValue": null,
-"change": null,
+"date": "2026-08-07",
+"value": 1416.1,
+"previousDate": "2026-08-06",
+"previousValue": 1423.8,
+"change": -7.7000000000000455,
 "unit": "원",
 "artifactPath": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet",
 "asOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
-"status": "missing"
+"status": "observed"
 },
-"signal": "missing"
+"signal": "falling"
 }
 ],
 "edges": [
@@ -308,8 +325,8 @@
 ],
 "evidenceLabel": "PRIOR",
 "sourceRef": "macro.transmission:edge:fx-export-revenue",
-"driverSignal": "missing",
-"impactDirection": "unresolved",
+"driverSignal": "falling",
+"impactDirection": "twoSided",
 "resolvedEvidenceLevel": "sectorPrior",
 "companyEvidenceCoverage": 0.0,
 "matchedCompanyRequirements": [],
@@ -352,8 +369,8 @@
 ],
 "evidenceLabel": "OBS",
 "sourceRef": "macro.transmission:edge:export-demand-revenue",
-"driverSignal": "missing",
-"impactDirection": "unresolved",
+"driverSignal": "rising",
+"impactDirection": "tailwind",
 "resolvedEvidenceLevel": "observed",
 "companyEvidenceCoverage": 0.0,
 "matchedCompanyRequirements": [],
@@ -393,7 +410,7 @@
 ],
 "evidenceLabel": "TPL",
 "sourceRef": "macro.transmission:edge:rate-debt-interest",
-"driverSignal": "missing",
+"driverSignal": "flat",
 "impactDirection": "unresolved",
 "resolvedEvidenceLevel": "template",
 "companyEvidenceCoverage": 0.0,
@@ -434,7 +451,7 @@
 ],
 "evidenceLabel": "PRIOR",
 "sourceRef": "macro.transmission:edge:rate-bank-margin",
-"driverSignal": "missing",
+"driverSignal": "flat",
 "impactDirection": "unresolved",
 "resolvedEvidenceLevel": "sectorPrior",
 "companyEvidenceCoverage": 0.0,
@@ -562,8 +579,8 @@
 ],
 "evidenceLabel": "TPL",
 "sourceRef": "macro.transmission:edge:cpi-utility-tariff",
-"driverSignal": "missing",
-"impactDirection": "unresolved",
+"driverSignal": "falling",
+"impactDirection": "twoSided",
 "resolvedEvidenceLevel": "template",
 "companyEvidenceCoverage": 0.0,
 "matchedCompanyRequirements": [],
@@ -583,18 +600,18 @@
 {
 "id": "driver:BASE_RATE",
 "driverId": "BASE_RATE",
-"status": "locked",
-"date": null,
-"value": null,
+"status": "observed",
+"date": "2026-08-06",
+"value": 2.75,
 "unit": "%",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#BASE_RATE"
 },
 {
 "id": "driver:CPI",
 "driverId": "CPI",
-"status": "locked",
-"date": null,
-"value": null,
+"status": "observed",
+"date": "2026-07-01",
+"value": 119.77,
 "unit": "%",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#CPI"
 },
@@ -610,18 +627,18 @@
 {
 "id": "driver:EXPORT",
 "driverId": "EXPORT",
-"status": "locked",
-"date": null,
-"value": null,
+"status": "observed",
+"date": "2026-06-01",
+"value": 112371.0,
 "unit": "%",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#EXPORT"
 },
 {
 "id": "driver:USDKRW",
 "driverId": "USDKRW",
-"status": "locked",
-"date": null,
-"value": null,
+"status": "observed",
+"date": "2026-08-07",
+"value": 1416.1,
 "unit": "원",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#USDKRW"
 }
@@ -637,32 +654,7 @@
 "ui/packages/contracts/src/macro.ts::MACRO_SERIES",
 "macro/{ecos,fred}/observations.parquet"
 ],
-"missing": [
-{
-"id": "driver.BASE_RATE.latestObservation",
-"status": "missing",
-"reason": "latest macro observation unavailable: KeyError",
-"sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#BASE_RATE"
-},
-{
-"id": "driver.CPI.latestObservation",
-"status": "missing",
-"reason": "latest macro observation unavailable: KeyError",
-"sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#CPI"
-},
-{
-"id": "driver.EXPORT.latestObservation",
-"status": "missing",
-"reason": "latest macro observation unavailable: KeyError",
-"sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#EXPORT"
-},
-{
-"id": "driver.USDKRW.latestObservation",
-"status": "missing",
-"reason": "latest macro observation unavailable: KeyError",
-"sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#USDKRW"
-}
-],
+"missing": [],
 "contextGaps": [],
 "product": {
 "schemaVersion": 1,
@@ -674,19 +666,19 @@
 "version": "1"
 },
 "time": {
-"asOf": "2026-08-08",
-"dataAsOf": "2026-08-06",
+"asOf": "2026-08-09",
+"dataAsOf": "2026-08-07",
 "period": null,
-"knowledgeBoundary": "2026-08-08"
+"knowledgeBoundary": "2026-08-09"
 },
 "status": "partial",
 "conclusion": {
 "label": "거시 순풍 경로 우세",
-"summary": "거시 순풍 경로 우세입니다. 거시 관측 2/6개를 확인했지만 개별 회사 재무 근거에는 아직 바인딩되지 않았습니다."
+"summary": "거시 순풍 경로 우세입니다. 거시 관측 6/6개를 확인했지만 개별 회사 재무 근거에는 아직 바인딩되지 않았습니다."
 },
 "confidence": {
-"level": "low",
-"score": 20.0,
+"level": "medium",
+"score": 60.0,
 "method": "macroObservationAndCompanyEvidenceCoverage"
 },
 "drivers": [
@@ -700,6 +692,24 @@
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#BAMLH0A0HYM2"
 },
 {
+"id": "BASE_RATE",
+"label": "한국 기준금리",
+"value": 2.75,
+"unit": "%",
+"signal": "flat",
+"change": 0.0,
+"sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#BASE_RATE"
+},
+{
+"id": "CPI",
+"label": "소비자물가 YoY",
+"value": 119.77,
+"unit": "%",
+"signal": "falling",
+"change": -0.21999999999999886,
+"sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#CPI"
+},
+{
 "id": "DCOILWTICO",
 "label": "WTI",
 "value": 81.96,
@@ -707,6 +717,24 @@
 "signal": "falling",
 "change": -4.200000000000003,
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#DCOILWTICO"
+},
+{
+"id": "EXPORT",
+"label": "수출 YoY",
+"value": 112371.0,
+"unit": "%",
+"signal": "rising",
+"change": 18028.800000000003,
+"sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#EXPORT"
+},
+{
+"id": "USDKRW",
+"label": "원/달러",
+"value": 1416.1,
+"unit": "원",
+"signal": "falling",
+"change": -7.7000000000000455,
+"sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#USDKRW"
 }
 ],
 "claims": [],
@@ -720,12 +748,44 @@
 "detail": "미국 HY 스프레드 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
 },
 {
+"id": "macro.driver.BASE_RATE",
+"kind": "macroObservation",
+"sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#BASE_RATE",
+"status": "observed",
+"observedAt": "2026-08-06",
+"detail": "한국 기준금리 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
+},
+{
+"id": "macro.driver.CPI",
+"kind": "macroObservation",
+"sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#CPI",
+"status": "observed",
+"observedAt": "2026-07-01",
+"detail": "소비자물가 YoY 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
+},
+{
 "id": "macro.driver.DCOILWTICO",
 "kind": "macroObservation",
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#DCOILWTICO",
 "status": "observed",
 "observedAt": "2026-08-03",
 "detail": "WTI 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
+},
+{
+"id": "macro.driver.EXPORT",
+"kind": "macroObservation",
+"sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#EXPORT",
+"status": "observed",
+"observedAt": "2026-06-01",
+"detail": "수출 YoY 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
+},
+{
+"id": "macro.driver.USDKRW",
+"kind": "macroObservation",
+"sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#USDKRW",
+"status": "observed",
+"observedAt": "2026-08-07",
+"detail": "원/달러 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
 }
 ],
 "assumptions": [
@@ -737,30 +797,6 @@
 ],
 "gaps": [
 {
-"id": "driver.BASE_RATE.latestObservation",
-"status": "missing",
-"reason": "latest macro observation unavailable: KeyError",
-"sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#BASE_RATE"
-},
-{
-"id": "driver.CPI.latestObservation",
-"status": "missing",
-"reason": "latest macro observation unavailable: KeyError",
-"sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#CPI"
-},
-{
-"id": "driver.EXPORT.latestObservation",
-"status": "missing",
-"reason": "latest macro observation unavailable: KeyError",
-"sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#EXPORT"
-},
-{
-"id": "driver.USDKRW.latestObservation",
-"status": "missing",
-"reason": "latest macro observation unavailable: KeyError",
-"sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#USDKRW"
-},
-{
 "id": "macro.companyBinding",
 "status": "partial",
 "reason": "시장 또는 섹터 경로이며 개별 회사 재무 근거에 바인딩되지 않았습니다.",
@@ -942,9 +978,18 @@
 "regime": {
 "kr": {
 "market": "KR",
-"computedAt": "2026-08-07T23:55:36.269512+00:00",
+"computedAt": "2026-08-08T22:21:52.654381+00:00",
 "forecast": {
-"models": {},
+"models": {
+"lei": {
+"cliMomentum": 1.5,
+"cliLevel": 130.2,
+"growthApprox": 1.9,
+"growthLabel": "확장",
+"asOf": "2026-06-01",
+"staleAfterDays": 75
+}
+},
 "missing": [
 {
 "id": "probit",
@@ -957,11 +1002,6 @@
 "reason": "US 전용"
 },
 {
-"id": "lei",
-"status": "데이터부족·표시 보류",
-"reason": "CLI composite 미산출"
-},
-{
 "id": "hamilton",
 "status": "단위 parity 미확정·표시 보류",
 "reason": "GROWTH↔A191RL1Q225SBEA 단위 동일성 미확정"
@@ -980,7 +1020,7 @@
 },
 "us": {
 "market": "US",
-"computedAt": "2026-08-07T23:55:36.316132+00:00",
+"computedAt": "2026-08-08T22:21:52.916379+00:00",
 "forecast": {
 "models": {
 "probit": {
@@ -1008,7 +1048,7 @@
 "staleAfterDays": 45
 },
 "lei": {
-"level": 6223626.21,
+"level": 6223629.23,
 "mom6m": null,
 "signal": "expansion",
 "signalLabel": "확장",
@@ -1048,7 +1088,22 @@
 "missing": []
 },
 "gar": {
-"status": "표본 부족·표시 보류"
+"gar5": -0.46,
+"gar25": 1.31,
+"median": 2.08,
+"gar75": 2.84,
+"gar95": 4.67,
+"skewness": 0.05,
+"tailRisk": "moderate",
+"tailRiskLabel": "보통",
+"currentFCI": -0.277,
+"observations": 98,
+"horizon": 4,
+"timeKind": "forward",
+"seriesNote": "FCI(NFCI 대용) 조건부 GDP 성장률 분위(점추정 아닌 조건부 분포)",
+"asOf": "2026-04-01",
+"staleAfterDays": 120,
+"revisionLabel": "분기 GDP·수정 대상"
 },
 "regimeBand": {
 "status": "레짐 분리 약함",