갱신: dashboards JSON (mapBuild)

landing/dashboards/macro.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
 "version": "v20",
-"asOf": "2026-08-14",
+"asOf": "2026-08-16",
 "kr": {
 "market": "KR",
 "phase": null,
@@ -18,7 +18,7 @@
 "quadrant": "deflation",
 "quadrantLabel": "디플레이션",
 "growth": "falling",
-"growthSignal": -24.0,
+"growthSignal": -20.0,
 "inflation": "falling",
 "inflationSignal": -0.13,
 "assetImplication": {
@@ -32,19 +32,19 @@
 "confidence": "medium",
 "description": "성장 둔화 + 물가 하락 — 장기 국채 최적, 주식·원자재 불리"
 },
-"computedAt": "2026-08-14T00:01:42.176839+00:00"
+"computedAt": "2026-08-15T22:13:41.660453+00:00"
 },
 "us": {
 "market": "US",
 "phase": "expansion",
 "phaseLabel": "확장",
-"confidence": "medium",
+"confidence": "high",
 "status": "observed",
 "observedInputs": 7,
 "totalInputs": 8,
 "signals": [
 "HY 스프레드 안정 (271bp)",
-"수익률곡선 평탄화 (+0.48%)",
+"수익률곡선 정상 (+0.51%)",
 "VIX 안정 (14.6)",
 "금 급등 (YoY +27.9%)",
 "CPI 3.5% — 인플레 동반 확장"
@@ -55,19 +55,7 @@
 "defensive": "neutral",
 "low": "neutral"
 },
-"transition": {
-"from": "expansion",
-"to": "slowdown",
-"progress": 25,
-"triggered": [
-"term_spread_flattening"
-],
-"pending": [
-"hy_spread_widening",
-"bei_overheating",
-"vix_rising"
-]
-},
+"transition": null,
 "quadrant": {
 "quadrant": "reflation",
 "quadrantLabel": "리플레이션",
@@ -86,15 +74,15 @@
 "confidence": "high",
 "description": "성장 가속 + 물가 상승 — 원자재·EM 주식·TIPS 유리, 명목채 불리"
 },
-"computedAt": "2026-08-14T00:01:42.288232+00:00"
+"computedAt": "2026-08-15T22:13:41.788091+00:00"
 },
 "transmission": {
 "target": "KR:market",
 "stockCode": null,
 "market": "KR",
 "sectorKey": null,
-"asOf": "2026-08-14",
-"dataAsOf": "2026-08-13",
+"asOf": "2026-08-16",
+"dataAsOf": "2026-08-14",
 "drivers": [
 {
 "id": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
@@ -116,17 +104,17 @@
 "sourceLineage": {
 "source": "FRED",
 "sourceSeriesId": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
-"date": "2026-08-12",
+"date": "2026-08-13",
 "value": 2.71,
-"previousDate": "2026-08-11",
-"previousValue": 2.72,
-"change": -0.010000000000000231,
+"previousDate": "2026-08-12",
+"previousValue": 2.71,
+"change": 0.0,
 "unit": "%p",
 "artifactPath": "macro/fred/observations.parquet",
 "asOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
 "status": "observed"
 },
-"signal": "falling"
+"signal": "flat"
 },
 {
 "id": "BASE_RATE",
@@ -148,9 +136,9 @@
 "sourceLineage": {
 "source": "ECOS",
 "sourceSeriesId": "BASE_RATE",
-"date": "2026-08-11",
+"date": "2026-08-13",
 "value": 2.75,
-"previousDate": "2026-08-10",
+"previousDate": "2026-08-12",
 "previousValue": 2.75,
 "change": 0.0,
 "unit": "%",
@@ -276,17 +264,17 @@
 "sourceLineage": {
 "source": "ECOS",
 "sourceSeriesId": "USDKRW",
-"date": "2026-08-13",
-"value": 1419.4,
-"previousDate": "2026-08-12",
-"previousValue": 1415.7,
-"change": 3.7000000000000455,
+"date": "2026-08-14",
+"value": 1418.3,
+"previousDate": "2026-08-13",
+"previousValue": 1419.4,
+"change": -1.1000000000001364,
 "unit": "원",
 "artifactPath": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet",
 "asOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
 "status": "observed"
 },
-"signal": "rising"
+"signal": "falling"
 }
 ],
 "edges": [
@@ -326,7 +314,7 @@
 ],
 "evidenceLabel": "PRIOR",
 "sourceRef": "macro.transmission:edge:fx-export-revenue",
-"driverSignal": "rising",
+"driverSignal": "falling",
 "impactDirection": "twoSided",
 "resolvedEvidenceLevel": "sectorPrior",
 "companyEvidenceCoverage": 0.0,
@@ -493,8 +481,8 @@
 ],
 "evidenceLabel": "OBS",
 "sourceRef": "macro.transmission:edge:hy-risk-premium",
-"driverSignal": "falling",
-"impactDirection": "tailwind",
+"driverSignal": "flat",
+"impactDirection": "unresolved",
 "resolvedEvidenceLevel": "observed",
 "companyEvidenceCoverage": 0.0,
 "matchedCompanyRequirements": [],
@@ -593,7 +581,7 @@
 "id": "driver:BAMLH0A0HYM2",
 "driverId": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
 "status": "observed",
-"date": "2026-08-12",
+"date": "2026-08-13",
 "value": 2.71,
 "unit": "%p",
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#BAMLH0A0HYM2"
@@ -602,7 +590,7 @@
 "id": "driver:BASE_RATE",
 "driverId": "BASE_RATE",
 "status": "observed",
-"date": "2026-08-11",
+"date": "2026-08-13",
 "value": 2.75,
 "unit": "%",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#BASE_RATE"
@@ -638,8 +626,8 @@
 "id": "driver:USDKRW",
 "driverId": "USDKRW",
 "status": "observed",
-"date": "2026-08-13",
-"value": 1419.4,
+"date": "2026-08-14",
+"value": 1418.3,
 "unit": "원",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#USDKRW"
 }
@@ -667,10 +655,10 @@
 "version": "1"
 },
 "time": {
-"asOf": "2026-08-14",
-"dataAsOf": "2026-08-13",
+"asOf": "2026-08-16",
+"dataAsOf": "2026-08-14",
 "period": null,
-"knowledgeBoundary": "2026-08-14"
+"knowledgeBoundary": "2026-08-16"
 },
 "status": "partial",
 "conclusion": {
@@ -688,8 +676,8 @@
 "label": "미국 HY 스프레드",
 "value": 2.71,
 "unit": "%p",
-"signal": "falling",
-"change": -0.010000000000000231,
+"signal": "flat",
+"change": 0.0,
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#BAMLH0A0HYM2"
 },
 {
@@ -731,10 +719,10 @@
 {
 "id": "USDKRW",
 "label": "원/달���",
-"value": 1419.4,
+"value": 1418.3,
 "unit": "원",
-"signal": "rising",
-"change": 3.7000000000000455,
+"signal": "falling",
+"change": -1.1000000000001364,
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#USDKRW"
 }
 ],
@@ -745,7 +733,7 @@
 "kind": "macroObservation",
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#BAMLH0A0HYM2",
 "status": "observed",
-"observedAt": "2026-08-12",
+"observedAt": "2026-08-13",
 "detail": "미국 HY 스프레드 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
 },
 {
@@ -753,7 +741,7 @@
 "kind": "macroObservation",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#BASE_RATE",
 "status": "observed",
-"observedAt": "2026-08-11",
+"observedAt": "2026-08-13",
 "detail": "한국 기준금리 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
 },
 {
@@ -785,7 +773,7 @@
 "kind": "macroObservation",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#USDKRW",
 "status": "observed",
-"observedAt": "2026-08-13",
+"observedAt": "2026-08-14",
 "detail": "원/달러 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
 }
 ],
@@ -979,7 +967,7 @@
 "regime": {
 "kr": {
 "market": "KR",
-"computedAt": "2026-08-14T00:01:47.190378+00:00",
+"computedAt": "2026-08-15T22:14:54.130048+00:00",
 "forecast": {
 "models": {
 "lei": {
@@ -1021,19 +1009,19 @@
 },
 "us": {
 "market": "US",
-"computedAt": "2026-08-14T00:01:47.461679+00:00",
+"computedAt": "2026-08-15T22:14:54.413578+00:00",
 "forecast": {
 "models": {
 "probit": {
-"probability": 0.1552,
+"probability": 0.1463,
 "probabilityRounded": 0.15,
-"zone": "moderate",
-"zoneLabel": "보통",
-"spread": 0.76,
+"zone": "low",
+"zoneLabel": "낮음",
+"spread": 0.82,
 "horizon": "12M",
 "timeKind": "leading",
 "precisionNote": "Estrella-Mishkin 고정계수·표준오차 미산출(점추정)",
-"asOf": "2026-08-13",
+"asOf": "2026-08-14",
 "seriesId": "T10Y3M",
 "staleAfterDays": 7
 },
@@ -1049,7 +1037,7 @@
 "staleAfterDays": 45
 },
 "lei": {
-"level": 6223615.23,
+"level": 6223613.05,
 "mom6m": null,
 "signal": "expansion",
 "signalLabel": "확장",
@@ -1078,12 +1066,12 @@
 "missing": []
 },
 "rates": {
-"spread10y3m": 0.76,
+"spread10y3m": 0.82,
 "sign": "+",
 "curveShape": "steep_normal",
 "curveShapeLabel": "가파른정상",
 "curveSource": "NelsonSiegel.interpretation",
-"asOf": "2026-08-13",
+"asOf": "2026-08-14",
 "seriesId": "T10Y3M",
 "staleAfterDays": 7,
 "missing": []