갱신: dashboards JSON (mapBuild)

landing/dashboards/macro.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
 "version": "v20",
-"asOf": "2026-10-14",
+"asOf": "2026-10-15",
 "kr": {
 "market": "KR",
 "phase": null,
@@ -18,7 +18,7 @@
 "quadrant": "stagflation",
 "quadrantLabel": "스태그플레이션",
 "growth": "falling",
-"growthSignal": -12.0,
+"growthSignal": -23.0,
 "inflation": "rising",
 "inflationSignal": 0.55,
 "assetImplication": {
@@ -32,39 +32,38 @@
 "confidence": "high",
 "description": "성장 둔화 + 물가 상승 — 금·TIPS·현금 방어, 주식·채권 불리"
 },
-"computedAt": "2026-10-14T00:56:04.170380+00:00"
+"computedAt": "2026-10-15T01:03:47.080168+00:00"
 },
 "us": {
 "market": "US",
-"phase": "expansion",
-"phaseLabel": "확장",
-"confidence": "low",
+"phase": "slowdown",
+"phaseLabel": "둔화",
+"confidence": "medium",
 "status": "observed",
 "observedInputs": 7,
 "totalInputs": 8,
 "signals": [
-"HY 스프레드 안정 (311bp)",
-"수익률곡선 평탄화 (+0.42%)",
+"HY 스프레드 안정 (316bp)",
+"수익률곡선 평탄화 (+0.37%)",
 "금 급등 (YoY +22.1%)",
-"CPI 3.7% — 인플레 동반 확장"
+"CPI 4.0% — 물가 과열, 둔화 전조"
 ],
 "sectorStrategy": {
-"high": "overweight",
-"moderate": "overweight",
-"defensive": "neutral",
+"defensive": "overweight",
+"moderate": "neutral",
+"high": "underweight",
 "low": "neutral"
 },
 "transition": {
-"from": "expansion",
-"to": "slowdown",
-"progress": 25,
+"from": "slowdown",
+"to": "contraction",
+"progress": 33,
 "triggered": [
-"term_spread_flattening"
+"gold_surging"
 ],
 "pending": [
-"hy_spread_widening",
-"bei_overheating",
-"vix_rising"
+"vix_spiking",
+"term_spread_inverted"
 ]
 },
 "quadrant": {
@@ -73,7 +72,7 @@
 "growth": "rising",
 "growthSignal": 663441.0,
 "inflation": "rising",
-"inflationSignal": 24.5,
+"inflationSignal": 24.25,
 "assetImplication": {
 "equity": "overweight",
 "bond": "underweight",
@@ -85,15 +84,15 @@
 "confidence": "high",
 "description": "성장 가속 + 물가 상승 — 원자재·EM 주식·TIPS 유리, 명목채 불리"
 },
-"computedAt": "2026-10-14T00:56:04.276960+00:00"
+"computedAt": "2026-10-15T01:03:47.148317+00:00"
 },
 "transmission": {
 "target": "KR:market",
 "stockCode": null,
 "market": "KR",
 "sectorKey": null,
-"asOf": "2026-10-14",
-"dataAsOf": "2026-10-13",
+"asOf": "2026-10-15",
+"dataAsOf": "2026-10-14",
 "drivers": [
 {
 "id": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
@@ -115,17 +114,17 @@
 "sourceLineage": {
 "source": "FRED",
 "sourceSeriesId": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
-"date": "2026-10-12",
-"value": 3.11,
-"previousDate": "2026-10-09",
+"date": "2026-10-13",
+"value": 3.16,
+"previousDate": "2026-10-12",
 "previousValue": 3.11,
-"change": 0.0,
+"change": 0.050000000000000266,
 "unit": "%p",
 "artifactPath": "macro/fred/observations.parquet",
 "asOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
 "status": "observed"
 },
-"signal": "flat"
+"signal": "rising"
 },
 {
 "id": "BASE_RATE",
@@ -275,17 +274,17 @@
 "sourceLineage": {
 "source": "ECOS",
 "sourceSeriesId": "USDKRW",
-"date": "2026-10-13",
-"value": 1345.1,
-"previousDate": "2026-10-12",
-"previousValue": 1335.1,
-"change": 10.0,
+"date": "2026-10-14",
+"value": 1338.3,
+"previousDate": "2026-10-13",
+"previousValue": 1345.1,
+"change": -6.7999999999999545,
 "unit": "원",
 "artifactPath": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet",
 "asOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
 "status": "observed"
 },
-"signal": "rising"
+"signal": "falling"
 }
 ],
 "edges": [
@@ -325,7 +324,7 @@
 ],
 "evidenceLabel": "PRIOR",
 "sourceRef": "macro.transmission:edge:fx-export-revenue",
-"driverSignal": "rising",
+"driverSignal": "falling",
 "impactDirection": "twoSided",
 "resolvedEvidenceLevel": "sectorPrior",
 "companyEvidenceCoverage": 0.0,
@@ -492,8 +491,8 @@
 ],
 "evidenceLabel": "OBS",
 "sourceRef": "macro.transmission:edge:hy-risk-premium",
-"driverSignal": "flat",
-"impactDirection": "unresolved",
+"driverSignal": "rising",
+"impactDirection": "headwind",
 "resolvedEvidenceLevel": "observed",
 "companyEvidenceCoverage": 0.0,
 "matchedCompanyRequirements": [],
@@ -592,8 +591,8 @@
 "id": "driver:BAMLH0A0HYM2",
 "driverId": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
 "status": "observed",
-"date": "2026-10-12",
-"value": 3.11,
+"date": "2026-10-13",
+"value": 3.16,
 "unit": "%p",
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#BAMLH0A0HYM2"
 },
@@ -637,8 +636,8 @@
 "id": "driver:USDKRW",
 "driverId": "USDKRW",
 "status": "observed",
-"date": "2026-10-13",
-"value": 1345.1,
+"date": "2026-10-14",
+"value": 1338.3,
 "unit": "원",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#USDKRW"
 }
@@ -666,15 +665,15 @@
 "version": "1"
 },
 "time": {
-"asOf": "2026-10-14",
-"dataAsOf": "2026-10-13",
+"asOf": "2026-10-15",
+"dataAsOf": "2026-10-14",
 "period": null,
-"knowledgeBoundary": "2026-10-14"
+"knowledgeBoundary": "2026-10-15"
 },
 "status": "partial",
 "conclusion": {
-"label": "거시 순풍 경로 우세",
-"summary": "거시 순풍 경로 우세입니다. 거시 관측 6/6개를 확인했지만 개별 회사 재무 근거에는 아직 바인딩되지 않았습니다."
+"label": "거시 전파 경로 혼재",
+"summary": "거시 전파 경로 혼재입니다. 거시 관측 6/6개��� 확인했지만 개별 회사 재무 근거에는 아직 바인딩되지 않았습니다."
 },
 "confidence": {
 "level": "medium",
@@ -685,10 +684,10 @@
 {
 "id": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
 "label": "미국 HY 스프레드",
-"value": 3.11,
+"value": 3.16,
 "unit": "%p",
-"signal": "flat",
-"change": 0.0,
+"signal": "rising",
+"change": 0.050000000000000266,
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#BAMLH0A0HYM2"
 },
 {
@@ -730,10 +729,10 @@
 {
 "id": "USDKRW",
 "label": "원/달러",
-"value": 1345.1,
+"value": 1338.3,
 "unit": "원",
-"signal": "rising",
-"change": 10.0,
+"signal": "falling",
+"change": -6.7999999999999545,
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#USDKRW"
 }
 ],
@@ -744,7 +743,7 @@
 "kind": "macroObservation",
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#BAMLH0A0HYM2",
 "status": "observed",
-"observedAt": "2026-10-12",
+"observedAt": "2026-10-13",
 "detail": "미국 HY 스프레드 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
 },
 {
@@ -784,7 +783,7 @@
 "kind": "macroObservation",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#USDKRW",
 "status": "observed",
-"observedAt": "2026-10-13",
+"observedAt": "2026-10-14",
 "detail": "원/달러 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
 }
 ],
@@ -916,69 +915,69 @@
 "sectorTailwind": {
 "automotive": {
 "kr": 0.0,
-"us": 0.5,
-"blended": 0.2
+"us": -0.3,
+"blended": -0.12
 },
 "biotech": {
 "kr": 0.0,
-"us": 0.1,
-"blended": 0.04
+"us": 0.2,
+"blended": 0.08
 },
 "chemicals": {
 "kr": 0.0,
-"us": 0.2,
-"blended": 0.08
+"us": -0.2,
+"blended": -0.08
 },
 "construction": {
 "kr": 0.0,
-"us": 0.3,
-"blended": 0.12
+"us": -0.4,
+"blended": -0.16
 },
 "display": {
 "kr": 0.0,
-"us": 0.4,
-"blended": 0.16
+"us": -0.2,
+"blended": -0.08
 },
 "energy": {
 "kr": 0.0,
-"us": 0.0,
-"blended": 0.0
+"us": 0.1,
+"blended": 0.04
 },
 "finance": {
 "kr": 0.0,
-"us": 0.3,
-"blended": 0.12
+"us": -0.1,
+"blended": -0.04
 },
 "it_software": {
 "kr": 0.0,
-"us": 0.5,
-"blended": 0.2
+"us": 0.1,
+"blended": 0.04
 },
 "retail": {
 "kr": 0.0,
-"us": 0.4,
-"blended": 0.16
+"us": -0.2,
+"blended": -0.08
 },
 "semiconductor": {
 "kr": 0.0,
-"us": 0.6,
-"blended": 0.24
+"us": -0.2,
+"blended": -0.08
 },
 "shipbuilding": {
 "kr": 0.0,
-"us": 0.4,
-"blended": 0.16
+"us": -0.1,
+"blended": -0.04
 },
 "steel": {
 "kr": 0.0,
-"us": 0.2,
-"blended": 0.08
+"us": -0.3,
+"blended": -0.12
 }
 },
 "regime": {
 "kr": {
 "market": "KR",
-"computedAt": "2026-10-14T00:56:06.068347+00:00",
+"computedAt": "2026-10-15T01:03:52.130218+00:00",
 "forecast": {
 "models": {
 "lei": {
@@ -1020,19 +1019,19 @@
 },
 "us": {
 "market": "US",
-"computedAt": "2026-10-14T00:56:06.338617+00:00",
+"computedAt": "2026-10-15T01:03:52.280258+00:00",
 "forecast": {
 "models": {
 "probit": {
-"probability": 0.1283,
+"probability": 0.1336,
 "probabilityRounded": 0.15,
 "zone": "low",
 "zoneLabel": "낮음",
-"spread": 0.95,
+"spread": 0.91,
 "horizon": "12M",
 "timeKind": "leading",
 "precisionNote": "Estrella-Mishkin 고정계수·표준오차 미산출(점추정)",
-"asOf": "2026-10-13",
+"asOf": "2026-10-14",
 "seriesId": "T10Y3M",
 "staleAfterDays": 7
 },
@@ -1048,7 +1047,7 @@
 "staleAfterDays": 45
 },
 "lei": {
-"level": 6289444.2,
+"level": 6289439.74,
 "mom6m": null,
 "signal": "expansion",
 "signalLabel": "확장",
@@ -1077,12 +1076,12 @@
 "missing": []
 },
 "rates": {
-"spread10y3m": 0.95,
+"spread10y3m": 0.91,
 "sign": "+",
 "curveShape": "steep_normal",
 "curveShapeLabel": "가파른정상",
 "curveSource": "NelsonSiegel.interpretation",
-"asOf": "2026-10-13",
+"asOf": "2026-10-14",
 "seriesId": "T10Y3M",
 "staleAfterDays": 7,
 "missing": []