build: macro regime us.json

macro/regime/us.json

@@ -0,0 +1,78 @@
+{
+"market": "US",
+"computedAt": "2026-06-20T23:10:54.319736+00:00",
+"forecast": {
+"models": {
+"probit": {
+"probability": 0.1756,
+"probabilityRounded": 0.2,
+"zone": "moderate",
+"zoneLabel": "보통",
+"spread": 0.63,
+"horizon": "12M",
+"timeKind": "leading",
+"precisionNote": "Estrella-Mishkin 고정계수·표준오차 미산출(점추정)",
+"asOf": "2026-06-18",
+"seriesId": "T10Y3M",
+"staleAfterDays": 7
+},
+"sahm": {
+"value": 0.1,
+"triggered": false,
+"zone": "normal",
+"zoneLabel": "정상",
+"horizon": "realtime",
+"timeKind": "trigger(동행)",
+"asOf": "2026-05-01",
+"seriesId": "UNRATE",
+"staleAfterDays": 45
+},
+"lei": {
+"level": 6282202.46,
+"mom6m": null,
+"signal": "expansion",
+"signalLabel": "확장",
+"availableComponents": 10,
+"totalComponents": 10,
+"overlapNote": "term-spread·initial-claims 내포(probit/Sahm 부분 상관)",
+"horizon": "6-9M",
+"timeKind": "leading",
+"asOf": "2026-05-01",
+"staleAfterDays": 75
+},
+"hamilton": {
+"timeKind": "retrospective",
+"horizon": "동행",
+"staleAfterDays": 120,
+"revisionLabel": "분기 GDP·수정 대상",
+"asOf": "2026-01-01",
+"seriesId": "A191RL1Q225SBEA",
+"seriesSource": "FRED",
+"separation": 0.086,
+"contractionProb": null,
+"converged": true,
+"status": "레짐 분리 약함"
+}
+},
+"missing": []
+},
+"rates": {
+"spread10y3m": 0.63,
+"sign": "+",
+"curveShape": "steep_normal",
+"curveShapeLabel": "가파른정상",
+"curveSource": "NelsonSiegel.interpretation",
+"asOf": "2026-06-18",
+"seriesId": "T10Y3M",
+"staleAfterDays": 7,
+"missing": []
+},
+"gar": {
+"status": "표본 부족·표시 보류"
+},
+"regimeBand": {
+"status": "레짐 분리 약함",
+"converged": true,
+"separation": 0.086
+}
+}