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after the Refugee Convention was established, that Israel formulated an internal directive which outlined procedures for the treatment of refugees and asylum seekers.
This procedure maintained the pre-existing hybrid nature of the RSD process; both the state and UNHCR were involved (Ben-Dor and Adut 2003; Kemp and Kritzman 2008). [7] An updated version of the directive was intended to come into force in January 2011.

This status quo has been under immense pressure since 2006. The influx has focused public attention on the issue and vividly demonstrated through the response of various institutions that a critical threshold has been crossed. The presence of 26,000 asylum seekers in dispersed urban centres is particularly visible in a small country such as Israel and is generating considerable tensions.

**Ordered disorder**

The government‘s incorporation of a range of deterrence measures alongside some accommodating procedures cannot be simply dismissed as stemming from Israel‘s inexperience in dealing with asylum seekers. The tension between Israel‘s democratic structures, backed by its international commitments, and the state‘s attempts to shape technologies of power which control and limit entrance to its territory, is expressed in a response to asylum seekers that can be understood as ̳ordered disorder‘ _._ The pattern of ̳ordered disorder‘ is guided by a consistent logic intended to make asylum claims unsustainable. The state‘s trial-and-error measures for dealing with refugees have shaped the sense of non-policy which has been described by others as chaotic bureaucratic ambiguity (Afeef 2009, 11) and governmental unruliness (Willen 2010b).

However, behind this ostensible chaos or unruliness lies an ordering principle which aims to deliver a clear and unwelcoming message. Ultimately, the range of measures employed to send a ̳no-entry‘ signal, and the array of deterrence signals used to reduce the numbers of future arrivals, establish the temporariness of asylum claims in Israel.

Conversely, NGOs, the media and Israeli officials have held Israel accountable to the high standards of its international commitments. Thus, in parallel to employing harsh deterrence measures, Israel has also offered limited and differing degrees of protection.

Over time, the government has issued a few thousand work permits to Sudanese and Eritreans, exercising a degree of tolerance and recognition of their needs, although these were exceptional permits that had to be renewed. But the majority of asylum seekers have not received such permits and have been forced to work illegally to survive. Such uneven, contradictory action exempts the state from declaring its allegiance either to deterrence or tolerance.

7UNHCR made the initial identification and interview of the asylum seeker. On the basis this process, a recommendation was given to the National Status Granting Body (NSGB), an inter-ministerial committee responsible for considering UNHCR recommendations. The final decision was taken by the MOI.

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A senior Ministry of Interior (MOI) official demonstrated the logic of non-policy when he was asked about employment issues in a session of the ̳Special Parliamentary Committee on the Problem of Foreign Workers‘ (SCPFW, 2010): ―In principle the law is there, on the other hand there is a decision not to enforce [it]‖.
Realising that enforcement of unlawful employment may force the government to provide care for the tens of thousands of asylum seekers, the state tolerates their work, and nurtures the general disorder.

̳Ordered disorder‘ can also be perceived as a response to the challenges the refugees pose to what anthropologist Lisa Malkki (1995a; 1995b) calls the ―national order of things‖. Issues of sovereignty and nationalism constitute the ―regime of order and knowledge‖ (Malkki 1995a, 5) that make-up the Israeli nation-state, are challenged by the subversion that asylum seekers create. Their liminal status threatens the perceived national order of things as they confront the state with their refugeehood.

As Agamben (1995) puts it (in reference to Arendt (1978)), refugees represent ―a disquieting element...by breaking up the identity between man and citizen, between nativity and nationality, the refugee throws into crisis the original fiction of sovereignty‖. In the face of this symbolic threat, Israel has employed a range of ―specialised correctives‖ (Malkki 1995a, 8) to restore the ̳real‘ national order of things.

While this politically useful framework of ̳ordered disorder‘ has consistently overarched the state‘s rejectionist policies, a pattern of evolution should also be acknowledged, especially in the implementation of Israel‘s ̳corrective‘ impulses.
Afeef (2009) fruitfully cites three examples of the contradictory policies which began to unfold as the influx increased.

First, the policy of detention, a key deterrence measure, was exercised even prior to 2006. As citizens of an ̳enemy state‘ the early arrivals from Sudan were held in detention for long periods, because they were identified as a potential security threat, which effectively debarred them from the asylum procedure (Tal 2007). This arrangement was increasingly applied to the majority of the asylum seekers who arrived in Israel (including minors), regardless of their nationality. [8] Second, the equally hostile response of ̳hot return‘, whereby asylum seekers were immediately returned to Egypt after crossing the border. Israel forcibly returned to Egypt an estimated 220 asylum seekers who were caught crossing the border, denying their right to claim asylum, in spite of the state‘s knowledge of Egyptian policies which sometimes breached the Convention‘s non-refoulement principle. Following a petition to the Israeli Supreme Court it seems that this policy is no longer practiced, but human rights organisations claim that it continues to periodically occur (RRF 2008, 2009).

Furthermore, in attempting to address concerns regarding over-crowding and employment pressures the government initiated the ̳Hadera-Gedera Provision‘, named after the two cities which geographically delineated a ̳no-go‘ area for 8 The functions of the prison system deserve further research. They arguably operate as ̳revolving doors‘ centres (although at different periods Sudanese asylum seekers were in prison for more than a year).

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refugees. This provision attempted to legally secure and isolate the Tel-Aviv metropolitan area, Israel‘s economic heart from being ̳hijacked‘ by the asylum seekers‘ low-cost labour.

This policy created economic-political pressures on smaller more desolate towns and prevented refugees from accessing UNHCR offices and NGOs‘ services in Tel-Aviv.
Following a petition to the Supreme Court and strong public pressure from NGOs, Members of Knesset (MK) and officials in the local authorities, the MOI cancelled this ̳corrective provision‘, more than a year after it was announced (Afeef 2009, 13).

More recently, driven by its dependence on UNHCR, the government established a new RSD Unit within the newly formed Population, Immigration and Border Authority (Ilan 2008; Wurgaft 2009). From July 2009 this unit was given the role of undertaking the RSD process.

This transition followed a comprehensive preparatory process which involved training by UNHCR and other organisations, who commended the government for its efforts. [9] Although ostensibly a positive step of taking responsibility for refugee protection — or at least as one interviewee observed: ―a work in progress‖ heading in this direction

- the RSD unit exists within ongoing institutional disorder, which severely
undermines its capabilities.

UNHCR‘s head in Israel has stated: ―They are quite serious in how they approach it, but the biggest drawback ... is that there is no legal framework in place. There are no published procedural guidelines on their work‖ (Friedman 2010a). A patchwork of administrative decisions and political strategy block access to refugee status.

At present Sudanese and Eritreans, who constituting 85 per cent of the refugee population, do not go through the RSD process. Instead, they receive temporary group protection which indicates the government‘s recognition that that they are likely to suffer persecution. This status, however, strategically delays the RSD process and the potential convention status (Kritzman-Amir 2009). Moreover, it was recently reported that out of 3,000 applicants of other nationalities, only two were granted refugee status (Weiler-Polak 2010).

Lastly, and perhaps most dramatically, PM Netenyahu recently approved the government‘s long-lasting intention to erect a surveillance fence along parts of the Egyptian border. Stating that Israel will remain open to refugees from conflict zones he framed the fence as a ―strategic decision to secure Israel's Jewish and democratic character‖, arguing that "We cannot let tens of thousands of illegal workers infiltrate Israel through the southern border and inundate our country with illegal aliens" (McCarthy 2010).

The following sections demonstrate how three core preoccupations ̳discursively dress‘ the bare lives of refugees in Israel and illuminate the ―chronic tension between

[the refugees‘] presence as bare life and as political actors, subject of history‖ (Malkki 2002, 359). They are: (a) securitisation and its relations to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, (b) ethnonationalism and (c) the legacy of the holocaust. These discourses 9 The government‘s serious attempts were repeatedly mentioned in the interviews.

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have developed as Israel‘s ideological ̳containment threshold‘ for the presence of asylum seekers has been crossed.

In reality, the three discourses are closely intertwined as key pillars of Israeli identity and society. Yet analytically distinguishing between them highlights how each creates particular problems for the construction of an Israeli asylum regime and how asylum seekers serve as a template in the discourses‘ formation.

**Security discourse**

The gravity of the security prism in Israel cannot be overstated. Officially managed under a legal ̳state of emergency‘ since its establishment 62 years ago, Israel has fought eight major wars, exercised countless military operations, experienced vicious terror attacks and continues to engage in the intricate Israeli-Palestinian conflict while dealing with threats of destruction.

Under these conditions, security in Israel cannot be dismissed only as a social construct, but should rather be seen as a pivotal ̳societal pillar‘ that has psychological and social elements, based in Israel‘s geo-political reality. It is not surprising that asylum seekers (some of whom are citizens of hostile states to Israel) entering illegally through the notorious Egyptian border are conceived as a security threat.

The inability of the asylum seekers to voice their agency has become a fertile ground for a campaign which used vilifying rhetoric to construct a number-oriented, securitycentred discourse. As Gibney (2002, 41) has pointed out, despite fleeing from terror and persecution, refugees often unwillingly become representatives of such violent and repressive phenomena in refugeedom.

Following the 2006 influx, discussions about asylum seekers were gradually securitised, culminating with the recent decision to erect the surveillance fence. The head of the Egyptian-Israeli fence project is a high ranking army officer who was defined by one military correspondent as the ―father and mother of the separation wall‖ between Israel and the West Bank (Buhbut 2006). Such presence serves as a useful reminder of the close connection between managing Israel‘s new security concerns about asylum seekers and its control over the Occupied Palestinian Territories.

The Israeli state began to frame the influx of asylum seekers as a security concern from early 2006, in parallel to the establishment of the ̳hot returns‘ procedure. In a special meeting in early 2008 former PM Olmert employed a disturbing ̳natural disaster‘ terminology to describe the situation, stating: ―This is a tsunami that can grow and we need to take every measure to stop it". This threatening imagery helped him to argue that security officials should "prevent the refugee infiltrations, even if the matter requires the use of force" (JP 2008).

The ̳asylum-migration nexus‘ was strategically used to give a security dimension to what Willen (2010a, 508) calls ―the epistemological and classificatory confusion‖ that accompanied the state‘s refusal to describe the arrivals as refugees or asylum seekers.
Instead, it denounced them as ̳infiltrators‘ ( _mistanenim)_ and later, fuelled by rejectionist rhetoric by politicians and others, coined the neologism – ―labour 8

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infiltrators‖ ( _mistaneniavoda_ ) in an effort to associate refugees with a threat to the employment prospects of Israelis.

As one academic interviewee observed, the ongoing primacy of this term demonstrates ―the success of agents within the [governmental] institutions to inject this discourse and create a sort of panic‖ characterised by a ―takeaway feeling – they will come here, take what we have, and change this place‖.

This ―takeaway feeling‖ partly explains the urgency of an MK who suggested various security technologies that allowed Israel to act in a middle zone between violence and doing nothing: ―...preventing entrance, a fence, guard dogs, sensors...arrivals will not be answered and received, we will not let them in‖...‖Between killing and not acting there is prevention, [and the state should act upon it] if Israel wishes to survive‖.

However, any discussion which touches upon security-related issues must also consider the close triangular relationships between African refugees, Palestinian refugees and Israeli security considerations. In the Israeli context, the term ̳refugee‘ is traditionally associated with two types of refugee: Jewish holocaust survivors who fled Europe and the Palestinian refugees who were displaced as a result of the 1948 War.

The state fears that recognizing African asylum seekers as refugees will open the Pandora‘s Box of Palestinian refugees‘ claims for territory, compensation and most importantly, right of return. Combined, these demands are perceived as a threat for the country‘s ethnonational character and its very existence as a Jewish and democratic state (cf. Shafir and Peled 1998; Yiftachel 2000; 2006; Gavison 1999).

Although article 1D of the 1951 Convention excludes the Palestinian refugees, the resolution concerning their fate has remained amongst the key intricate issues in the negotiations between the sides (e.g. Peters and Gal 2009). Although the two ̳refugee issues‘ are not legally or practically related, the primordial/contemporary presence of the Palestinian refugees shapes immigration debate in Israel. As one interviewee claimed, the issue of Palestinian refugees accompanies any discussion about African refugees.

The ―labour infiltrators‖ terminology serves three key functions. First, it portrays the refugees as a threat to Israeli employment. Second, this neologism enables the state to de-link the contemporary influx from the contentious tensions associated with the ̳Palestinian refugee‘ as a symbol for territorial claims.

Finally, it draws on an emotionally freighted term and set of events that suggest grave danger to Israeli identity and individuals. Infiltration is associated with a specific historical episode, (and in many ways a contemporary one too); 'infiltrators'

[ _mistanenim_ ] are associated with the Palestinian _Fedayeen_ [10] movement which emerged as a response to the 1948 war and the establishment of Israel.

Immediately after the war thousands of Palestinian refugees began to cross the border back to their houses. At first, they were motivated by socio-economic concerns 10Arabic for self-sacrificer.The term refers to different groups, in different times. It is cited here to address the post 1948 period throughout the 1950s.

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regarding their families, property, crops and houses. These returns were perceived by the Israeli side as an act of infiltration that did not only involve trespassing but also constituted a threat to the new state.

As the post-war tensions increased, the infiltration changed its purpose, and developed into a national struggle. Throughout the 1950s (arguably with the support of the neighbouring states) groups of Palestinian guerrilla fighters attacked Israeli civilian and military targets. These acts were followed by retaliation by the Israeli army, leading to many causalities on both sides (for a detailed account see Morris 1997; Benvenisti 2002).

One NGO worker highlighted the state‘s intention to take the issue ―to a place that connects [the refugees] to the Palestinian struggle and security dilemmas...but it is a manipulation of the discourse‖. Other interviewees highlighted important nuances, as a different NGO worker argued: ―the phobia from the [African] refugees began with the phobia from the Palestinian refugees, but it has received a life of its own‖.

Referring to the legal aspects of the emerging asylum regime, a third interviewee touched on this evolution: ―a ten years process has taken place, and the Palestinian issue has not really succeeded to enter the asylum regime because they have succeeded in creating deterrence...they suddenly realised however, that the refugee convention can be a serious explosive even without the Palestinian refugees...even though every Israeli has the Palestinian issue here [pointing at her nape], it is no longer at the forefront. The demographic issue is – and demography is not only the

[Israeli-Palestinian] conflict, demography is a few more things including [the question]: ̳do you want Israel to become Africa?‘‖ [A3].

**The ethnonational discourse**

Israel‘s Declaration of Independence refers to the state as ―the birthplace of the Jewish people‖ and their "ancient homeland‖. It states that Israel would ―open the gates...wide to every Jew and confer upon the Jewish people the status of a fully privileged member of the comity of nations‖ (MFA 1948/2010). Established to express the right of the Jewish people to self-determination and grounded in the Zionist ideology, Israel‘s Jewish and democratic character is underlined by the 1950 Law of Return which constructs a distinctive migration regime.

The law establishes the ―natural right‖ of every Jew to return to the homeland and become a citizen, based on ethno-religious ancestral ties which are represented in the modern nation, and in the ideological commitment to Jewish immigration (Sachar 2000; Shuval 1998). The law constructs a migration regime that defines the particularities of membership claims while excluding those who do not meet its demands, creating varying degrees of a much-debated structural discrimination against non-Jews, and in particular Palestinians (cf. Carmi 2003; Yiftachel 2006; Gavison 2010).

The state actively seeks, via a range of institutions, to encourage Jewish ̳homecoming‘ and sustain a Jewish demographic majority. Israel‘s self-defined ―Jewish and democratic‖ character creates inherent tensions for non-Jewish migrants (amongst others) who are conceived by some as an existential threat (Kritzman-Amir 10

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2009), not only demographically but ―...one or a combination of biological dilution ...cultural downgrading, security danger, subversion and political instability‖ (Smooha 2002, 478 cited in Afeef 2009, 3).

While these tensions were arguably contained for decades, from the 1990s onwards three patterns of migration to Israel challenged the state‘s definitional features. First, Israel absorbed more than one million Jewish and non-Jewish migrants from the collapsing Soviet Union who were primarily driven by economic considerations. [11] Second, the government encouraged labour migration from overseas to replace Palestinian workers from the West Bank and Gaza who were gradually rejected due to the deterioration in the security situation following the 1987 first _Intifada._ [12] From the state‘s prism, these labour migrants were not perceived as immigrants but only as authorised workers who met the booming economy‘s needs (Kemp and Reijman 2008; Reijman 2009; Kemp 2010). Accordingly, government policy towards them consisted of differing policies, including a large-scale governmental deportation campaign targeted at authorised workers who overstayed their visas and became unauthorised (Willen 2007). The third transformation is the ongoing influx of African migrants.

Against this backdrop, the 2006 refugee influx met heightened anxiety over the transforming ethnonational character of the Israeli nation-state. The idea that mass influx involves demographic change has deep roots and was tactically used by Jews themselves prior to establishment of the state and during the British mandate (Neuman 1999). This language was engaged again, intensified by these changing patterns of migration and the ongoing focus on state security, to represent asylum seekers as a serious threat to both social cohesiveness and security - conveyed through the transportable, easy-to-use refugee template.

Politicians and public officials further inflamed the debate by releasing controversial statements. PM Netanyahu employed rejectionist rhetoric: ―infiltrators cause cultural, social and economic damage, and pull us towards the Third World‖ and, in a slip of tongue, he later referred to the infiltrators as ―surge of refugees who threaten to wash away our achievements and damage our existence as a Jewish democratic state‖ (Goldstein 2010).

The head of the SCPFW has called for a stop to the ―illegal infiltration‖ and defined it as an immediate ―demographic, cultural, religious and social threat―...―[as] the Jewish people have spent 100 years building a Jewish state and in 10 years the infiltrators can wash it all down the drain" (Katz 2010).

Such pronouncements were followed by a semi-xenophobic media campaign organised by the mayor of Eilat, Israel‘s resort city and the nearest city to the southern border, who complained about the municipal burden associated with the number of African asylum seekers in his city. He called Israel‘s inaction ―national suicide‖ (Friedman 2010b), while comfortably failing to mention the economic benefits of the asylum seekers‘ low-cost labour in the city‘s hotels, tolerated by both government and 11 This was enabled by a 1970 amendment to the Law of Return which expanded its scope to include the spouses and close relative of any Jew.
12Arabic for uprising.

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his municipality. Another example of a religious-ethnonational discourse was the call of local rabbis in South Tel-Aviv‘s deprived neighbourhoods (in which many asylum seekers and migrant labourers reside) not to rent flats to the ―dangerous infiltrators‖ (Harkov 2010).

One academic interviewee has argued that the state‘s ―remarkable consistency in its overall rejection of the refugees can be understood through its core concerns with ―their ̳otherness‘, the state does not want both the Muslim [refugee] and the Christian

[refugee]...but the basic logic is simple, and it has to do with their increasing numbers and the nature of the Jewish state‖...[something] ―which cannot be overridden as a paranoia per se‖.

As a few civil society and academic interviewees pointed out, these base fears are enacted by the ̳socialisation‘ of public officials who feel they are ―the Jewish democratic state‘s gatekeepers‖, bearing responsibility to limit the non-Jewish immigration to Israel as much as possible. One NGO worker argued that these officials see their role as ―preventing drastic demographic deterioration... similarly to that of the Dutch boy who plugs a dike with his finger‖.

In contrast, one NGO worker argued that civil society organisations ―advocate a perception of ̳universalistic citizenship‘, where everyone should have rights...they do not see the nationality issue as relevant, but publicly, it is not stated. In today‘s public atmosphere, we will not say it out loud because it does not serve the struggle and the strategy‖. As the same NGO worker argued: ―the central issue here is [one that addresses] the nature of Israeli civil society, the struggle is about the character of Israel as a state, and the refugees are not really sharing this struggle, they are rather disempowered by it‖.

Both security and ethnonational discourses have intensified as the numbers of asylum seekers have risen sharply, crossing a critical threshold beyond which refugee issues can no longer be ignored as ̳out of sight, out of mind‘. The next section highlights a third challenge which complements the ethnonational, security-conscious image: the experience of the holocaust.

**The holocaust/genocide discourse**

The holocaust is a fundamental social component of the Israeli society - its legacy is deeply rooted in past and contemporary Israeli identity (Zertal 2005). The aforementioned decision of former PM Olmert to give temporary residence to 500 Darfurians can be seen as an exceptional ̳humanitarian anomaly‘, akin to those granted by Israel in the past. While it has a humanitarian dimension, granting recognised survivors of genocide protection in Israel inherently relates to Jews‘ and Israelis‘ own experiences of genocide.

This ̳holocaust discourse‘ has an ongoing role in shaping policies and attitudes towards asylum seekers. It creates a degree of accommodating space for asylum seekers vis-à-vis Israel‘s commitment to human rights. The influx heightened the tension between ethnic nationalism, embedded in the state‘s identity, and an array of humanitarian responses which followed the initial arrival of Sudanese (and later other) refugees. These humanitarian responses were partially (and arguably) motivated by 12

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the shared ̳intimacy‘ of the genocide experience between Israelis and Sudanese from Darfur.

The centrality of this issue was highlighted in 2006-7 which saw a significant increase in the numbers of asylum seekers. Analogies to the holocaust as the Israeli/Jewish ̳moral barometer‘ were commonly drawn by politicians (Knesset Discussion 2007), academics - including a leading holocaust scholar who compared Israel‘s policies to Switzerland‘s and Britain‘s policies towards Jews in the Second World War (TAU 2007; Bauer 2008), reserve soldiers who served at the border and witnessed Egyptian shootings (Bereshkovsky 2007) and even senior religious figures (Ynet 2007).

One newspaper‘s editorial explicitly defined the linkage: ―The first moral commandment of the state of the Jews is that it does not have the right to slam the door in the face of refugees fleeing genocide‖ (Haaretz 2007). Such calls led many other Israelis to express their moral commitment by providing donations or food products, or by hosting asylum seekers in their houses or settlements.

As Willen (2010a) has pointed out, the ―kinship of genocide‖ between Jewish experiences of the holocaust and Darfurian survivors shaped accommodating humanitarian responses but it also led to the creation of a hierarchy of suffering in which Darfurian Sudanese received a special humanitarian primacy over others. Their specific, ̳right‘ kind of suffering could be better accommodated than others forms of suffering.

With the rise in the numbers of Eritrean asylum seekers who gradually and significantly outnumbered the Sudanese (and particularly that of Darfurians), the influx reached its critical threshold. The kinship of genocide towards asylum seekers has eroded and the short-span of this episodic golden-era (if indeed there was ever one) has reached its end. This made room for the deeper tensions between humanitarianism and ethnonationalism. The migration side of the asylum-migration nexus undermined the asylum side as the ―labour infiltrators‖ terminology took primacy.

In the words of some interviewees, the moral obligations of holocaust survivors were balanced with more pragmatic concerns. A government official stated: ―the people of Israel are merciful in their nature, and the experience of the holocaust hovers above – those who will be recognised as refugees will be treated with all due respect, but those who are not recognised – people need to understand that this becomes a heavy financial burden‖. An MK argued that the kinship of genocide is not the issue: ―people do not know what is Eritrea, what kind of state, at most they will tell you ̳something in Africa‘, they do not know...Sudan, Darfur, Ethiopia, Africa, Muslims – everything in one parcel – only few are really aware of the details‖.

Civil society workers however, were intently aware of the way this balance had tipped away from the cultural weight of genocide, partially because they instrumentally attempted the holocaust discourse to support their advocacy and fund-raising campaigns, an endeavour most referred to as a mistake. One academic highlighted the early success of this technique as it ―paved the way for many people to understand and identify with the situation experienced by other people, through their collective history, and it was genuine personal identification‖.

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Yet while the ―story of the Darfurians ... enabled doing things for the rest‖, this interviewee also identified the ―constricting‖ results of focusing on such a ―particularistic experience‖ to generate empathy and support for refugees: ―Israelis find it difficult to identify with something they are not familiar with, but it does not mean we should not respond to it‖.

Likewise, an NGO worker highlighted the Eritreans‘ subsequent problem: ―to market their refugehood‖...it was much easier to mobilise public opinion...[regarding] genocide refugees. The political salience of language and carefully selected appellations was highlighted by many interviewees as they traced the transformations in the discourse from ―Auschwitz, and Israel‘s legacy of the holocaust‖ to deep concerns with regard to the ―the faith of Israel if this influx will continue‖.

The kinship of genocide sheds light on the salience of the security and ethnonationalist discourses. Moreover, it created a window of opportunity to see the asylum seekers as purposive actors. While the kinship has eroded, holocaust discourse, as a fundamental pillar of the Israeli society will continue to shape people‘s interpretative readings and the state‘s responses to asylum seekers.

**Conclusion**

Drizzle, trickle, flow, surge, flood, tidal-wave and even tsunami. Water metaphors are commonly used to refer to asylum seekers and refugees. Turton (2003b) points out three common features of such forced migration metaphorical language. First, the language is shaped in inescapable but unpredictable terms as something which must be resisted. Second, it dehumanises its subjects while shaping their presence as a threat. Third, it relies on an ̳us versus them‘ dichotomy.

These features are central to this paper‘s quest to explain and deconstruct the discursive challenges surrounding African asylum seekers and refugees in Israel. It has sought to establish ̳calmer waters‘ in which these discourses and their political implications can be analytically evaluated. The exclusionist measures which have constituted Israel‘s patchy policy responses highlight its strategy to cement asylum claims as unsustainable, in the hope the surge of refugees will one day dry up.

Israel‘s ̳refugee problem‘, albeit new, is not going to suddenly disappear. Far from being a local problem, critical analysis reveals the issue‘s developing salience. The future of Israel‘s asylum regime will be shaped by the discourses which were identified in this study and others which will probably emerge and re-emerge.

The paper presented two intertwined arguments. First, the discursive formations which developed as a response to the influx are underlined by the reduction of the asylum seekers to the level of ̳bare life‘, a form of depoliticised existence (Agamben 1998). The asylum seekers serve, on a conceptual level, a convenient and an agencylimited template for these discourses to form, essentially affecting the treatment they receive, which often serve the political interests of others. Second, the asylummigration nexus has a fundamental role in shaping debates over the ̳correct‘ or ̳accurate‘ definition of the asylum seekers – a category which cannot be distinctively conceptualised from economic migrants.

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Drawing on such overlaps, Israel has constructed its own ―national order of things‖ (Malkki, 1995): an ordered disorder which serves the evolutionary pattern through which it responds to asylum seekers. This ordered disorder progresses through ostensibly contradictory and confused policies, but a vivid exclusionary principle governs its overall execution. Essentially, the exclusionary logic is not radically different from the spectrum of measures used by other countries that limit the entrance of unwanted individuals to their territory.

Instigating this spectrum of responses, asylum seekers are shaped and perceived by the state as a blank slate, open to discursive turns supported by the strategic choices of actors from across the political spectrum. While anathema to many, and provided that the current influx continues at its current rate, it is not impossible to envisage the establishment of Israel‘s first ̳infiltrators city‘ or refugee camp.

Serving a multiplicity of functions this ostensible ̳city of infiltrators‘ would become a detention centre for the asylum seekers, a deterrence measure for future arrivals and simultaneously, a humanitarian space where their physical needs would be met (SCPFW 2010). Widely rejected and criticised, such considerations continue to live as a potential policy resolution in the mind of decision makers, and may indeed materialise if the numbers of refugees continue to rise at current rates.

But another route can also be contemplated. Israel may develop legislation which transforms the ̳kinship of genocide‘ into a more inclusionist ̳kinship of refugees‘ which will respond to Israel‘s unique ethnonational character and past legacies while accommodating others‘ unique circumstances and history. Either way, as Foucault (cited in Campbell 1998, 515) has stated in support of the Vietnamese boat people: ―People‘s misfortune must never be the silent remainder of politics‖ – this paper attempted to reflect on a process which may allow exactly that.

15

A dataset, survey, database, index, census, registry, or information system with a specific proper name that can be cited, queried, or downloaded as a data source

A data source described by its characteristics or producer rather than a proper name, containing a data noun and at least one identifying descriptor

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Input:
**REFERENCES**

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A data source described by its characteristics or producer rather than a proper name, containing a data noun and at least one identifying descriptor

A general reference to data, information, or statistics that contains a data noun but lacks enough specificity to identify the exact source


Input:
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A data source described by its characteristics or producer rather than a proper name, containing a data noun and at least one identifying descriptor

A general reference to data, information, or statistics that contains a data noun but lacks enough specificity to identify the exact source


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A data source described by its characteristics or producer rather than a proper name, containing a data noun and at least one identifying descriptor

A general reference to data, information, or statistics that contains a data noun but lacks enough specificity to identify the exact source


Input:
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A data source described by its characteristics or producer rather than a proper name, containing a data noun and at least one identifying descriptor

A general reference to data, information, or statistics that contains a data noun but lacks enough specificity to identify the exact source


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A data source described by its characteristics or producer rather than a proper name, containing a data noun and at least one identifying descriptor

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A dataset, survey, database, index, census, registry, or information system with a specific proper name that can be cited, queried, or downloaded as a data source

A data source described by its characteristics or producer rather than a proper name, containing a data noun and at least one identifying descriptor

A general reference to data, information, or statistics that contains a data noun but lacks enough specificity to identify the exact source


Input:
## Lebanon Baalbek-Hermel Governorate Profile (June 2015)

#### **GENERAL OVERVIEW**

The Bekaa valley was split into two governorates in May 2014; Baalbek/Hermel and Bekaa. Bekaa hosts Lebanon’s largest official border crossing with Syria in Masnaa. The Baalbak-Hermel Governorate is predominantly Shiite with pockets of Christians and Sunnis. Several UN agencies and NGOs have offices across the valley and regular inter-agency and sector coordination meetings are held in Zahle. Localized coordination structures are also established for Aarsal and the Hermel district.

#### **POPULATION OVERVIEW**
# 416,427 [People are living in Baalbek-Hermel ]
#### Governorate

##### **Location Map**

North Akkar Al Qaa Hermel Aarsal Baalbek/El-Hermel Baalbek/ Hermel 63.3% 2.5% 33%

1.1%

0.1%

##### 4,725     Palestine refugees in Lebanon 392  Palestine refugees from Syria

**POPULATION COHORTS** **Baalbek** **El Hermel**

##### 263,450  Lebanese

Baalbek

**3.6%**
**11.1%**

**29.5%**
**5.4%**

(0 – 5 Years) (6 – 17 Years) (18 – 59 Years) (60+ Years)

**3.9%**
**12.5%**

**28.2%**
**5.8%**

P Wavel Mount Beirut Lebanon Bekaa South [El Nabatieh] Masnaa P Palestinian Camps Major Towns Open official border crossing (0 – 5 Years) (6 – 17 Years) (18 – 59 Years) (60+ Years) 26% _**109,068**_ Deprived Lebanese

##### 10,072 Lebanese returnees

Governorate boundaries Capital Closed official border crossing Unofficial crossing

#### **SOCIO ECONOMIC OVERVIEW**

##### 54.5% of Syrian refugees living in substandard

shelter (inc. **37.4%** in informal settlements) in Bekaa and Baalbek-Hermel governorates
##### 532 Informal Settlements, hosting 53,585

registered Syrian refugees
##### 2.5% refugees living in collective shelters 130 public schools. Second shift programs are

supported in 20 schools in Central Bekaa, West Bekaa and Rashaya
##### 13 public hospitals; 8 are supported 4% unemployment rate (MICS 2009) 17 SDCs 74  Municipalities/ 7 Union of municipalities $1,859,491 multipurpose cash distributed

(Jan-May)

##### 137,788 registered Syrian refugees

DEC 2014 136,863 JUN 2014 127,506 JUN 2015 137,788 Lebanese above poverty line Deprived Lebanese Lebanese returnees Registered Syrian Refugees Palestine Refugees 133,310 94,180 5,048 131,074 5,117 21,073 14,887 2,976 6,714 0

#### **CHANGES IN CONTEXT JANUARY TO JUNE**

The northeastern border region remained highly volatile with consistent infiltration attempts by Islamist Armed Opposition Groups and recurrent LAF shelling along the outskirts of Aarsal, Fakiha and Ras Baalbak. A new round of Qalamoun battles was launched in the first week of May and is ongoing. Access to Aarsal continued to be inhibited by the security context. While some assistance has trickled in through local partners, UN agencies have been denied access since August 2014.

Restrictions on access were formalized in January with the imposition of specific entry criteria. In addition, the Government of Lebanon requested the suspension of UNHCR registration. As a result, the number of new arrivals substantially diminished and the number of registered refugees remains consistent.

Like in the rest of the Bekka, the number of Syrian refugees living in informal settlements has continued to increase with 196 new informal settlements since December 2014 and 5,058 refugees newly accommodated there.

A dataset, survey, database, index, census, registry, or information system with a specific proper name that can be cited, queried, or downloaded as a data source

A data source described by its characteristics or producer rather than a proper name, containing a data noun and at least one identifying descriptor

A general reference to data, information, or statistics that contains a data noun but lacks enough specificity to identify the exact source


Input:
#### **HUMANITARIAN AND STABLIZATION TRENDS**

Lack of access to Aarsal remains a challenge. Activities are ongoing, monitoring is undertaken remotely which is challenging; however new techniques have been adapted to respond to this situation. Agencies have been able to provide relatively consistent services and respond to emergency situations through local staff members and partner organizations.

Since the August 2014 hostilities, the LAF has tightened its security cordon around Aarsal, limiting movement of refugees to and from the town.

Access to services has been of concern in Aarsal given that almost 50 per cent of the registered Syrian refugees are without documentation and have feared crossing checkpoints along the way. Some restrictions imposed by the LAF between the outskirts and Aarsal town have impacted the approximately 3,000 individuals remaining. Fuel, food and other materials for the numerous businesses have been restricted. There is one formal transit site managed by DAF and 93 informal settlements inside Aarsal town.

A total of 8,900 households in Aarsal benefited from $200 worth of winter fuel support (and a hygiene kit covering the first quarter of 2015).

Like in the Bekka, innovative institutional support includes the Municipal Support Assistant (MSA) Programme where some international NGOs have seconded staff to several municipalities to support the work of the municipality staff and provide information to refugees. Eleven Mapping of Risk and Resources programmes are being implemented.

#### **MOST VULNERABLE LOCALITIES**

There are 26 vulnerable localitie ~~s in Baalbeck/Hermel, fve of which are classifed~~ as most vulnera ~~ble. Sixteen of the 26 localities are also considere~~ d as substantial and high pressu ~~re where the ratio of refugees to deprived Leb~~ anese is at least three to one or ~~more.~~ Hermel !( El Hermel

**Informal Tented**
**Settlements**

!

!!!!!! [!] !! **!!** ! **!** ! [!] !!!

!!!!!

~~!!~~ ! ~~!~~ ~~!!!~~ ~~!~~ ~~!~~ ~~**!**~~ ~~!~~ ~~!!!!!~~ ! ~~!!!!!!!~~ ~~**!!!**~~ ! ~~**!**~~ ~~!!!!!~~ ~~**!**~~ ~~!~~ ~~**!**~~ ~~!!!!!~~ ~~!!!!~~ ~~!~~ ~~!!~~ ~~**!**~~ ~~!~~ ~~!!!~~ ~~!!!!!!~~ ~~!!~~ ~~!~~ ~~!!!!~~ ~~!~~ ~~!!!!~~ ~~!!~~ ~~**!**~~ ~~!!!~~ ~~**!**~~ ~~!~~ ~~**!**~~ ~~!!!!!!~~ ~~!!!!~~ ~~**!!!**~~ ! ~~!!!~~ ~~**!**~~ ~~!~~ ~~**!**~~ ~~!!!!!~~ ~~!!~~ **!** ~~**!!**~~ ~~!!~~ ~~**!**~~ ~~**!!**~~ ! ~~!!~~ ~~**!**~~ ~~!~~ ~~**!**~~ ~~!!!!~~ ~~High Pressure~~ ~~(5 Cadastres)~~ ~~Substantial Pressure~~ ~~(9 Cadastres)~~ ~~Most Vulnerable~~ ~~2nd Most Vulnerable~~ ~~3rd Most Vulnerable~~ ~~4th Most Vulnerable~~ 5th Most Vulnerable ~~(~~ ~~Major cities~~ ~~Hermel~~ ~~!!~~ !!

~~!~~ ~~[!]~~ ~~!~~ ~~!!!~~ **!** ~~!~~ ~~[!]~~ ~~!!!~~ ~~[!]~~ ~~!~~ ! ~~**!**~~ ~~!~~ ! ~~!!~~ ! ~~[!]~~

**!** ~~!~~ ~~[!]~~ ~~!!!~~ ~~[!]~~ ~~!~~ ! ~~**!**~~ ~~!~~ ! ~~!!~~ ! ~~[!]~~

~~!!~~ ~~!!!~~ ~~!~~ ~~!!~~ ~~!~~ ~~!~~ ~~!!!~~ ~~!!!~~

**!** ~~!~~ ! **!** ~~!~~ !!!!!! ~~!!~~ [!] ~~!~~ !! ~~!~~ !! **!!** !!! **!** ! **!** ~~!!~~ !!!! ~~**[!]**~~ !! **!!** !! ~~!~~ **!!** !!

!! ! !!!! ~~!~~ !! ~~!~~ !! **!!** !!! **!** ! **!** ~~!~~ !!

~~!~~ **!** ~~Laboué~~ ~~!(~~ ~~Aarsal~~ ~~!(~~

**!** ~~!~~ ! **!** ~~!~~ !!!!!!! ~~!!~~ [!] ~~!~~ !! ~~!~~ !! **!!** !!!! **!** !!!!! **!** ~~!~~ !!!!!! **!!** !! ~~!~~ **!!** !!

! !!!!!!!! **!!** !!! **!** ! **!** !!!!! **!!** !! ~~!~~ **!!** !!

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!! **!** !! **!** !!! [!] **!** ! **!** !! **!** !!! **!** ! **!!!!** ! [!] !!! ! **!!** ! **!** !!! **!** ! **!** !!!!!! **!** Baalbek ~~#~~ ~~Palestinian Camp~~ !!!!! [!] ~~Baalbek~~ ~~Baalbek~~ !!!!!!!

!!!!!

!!!!! !

!!
!

!!!! [!] !

!!!

!!!! **!** !! **!** !!!!! **!** ! **!** !!!!!!! **!** !! [!!] !

**!** !!!!!! [!!]

!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

!!!! **!** !

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!!!!!!!

!

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!!!!!!!!!!!!!! [!] !!! [!] !!!!!!! **!** !!

!!!!!!

!!!! [!] !!! !!! [!] !!!! [!] !!! !!

! [!] P Informal Settlements !

!!! [!] **!** !!

!!!!!!!!!!!

!!!! [!] !

**!**

!!!!

!!! **!!** !!!

~~Chmistar~~ ~~!(~~ ~~!(~~ ~~Douris~~ ~~Brital~~ ~~#~~ !!!!!! **!** !!!!! **!** !!!!!! [!] ! [!] ! **!** ! **!** ! **!** !

!!!!! **!** ! **!**

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**!**

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!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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#### **HUMANITARIAN ACTORS**

Baalbek El Hermel Key contacts

**UNHCR** Maeve Murphy, murphym@unhcr.org **UNDP** George Akl, george.akl@undp.org
**Ministery of Social Affairs (MoSA)** Hussein Salemm, hussein.salemm@hotmail.com

**Baalbek-Hermel Governor** Mr. Bashir Khodr

7 15 5 14 7 15 5 8 5 3 7 5 8 5 813 6 3 5 3 1 4 2 3 2 3 4 1

**41 UN Agencies and NGOs operating in Baalbek-Hermel**

ACF, Al Masjed Com, AMEL, ARCPA, Beyond, CCP JAPAN, CLMC Lebanon, Danish Red Cross, DRC, EPL, FAO, GVC, HI, HOOPS, IMC, Intersos, IOCC Lebanon, IOM, IQRAA, IRC, ISAD, Lebanese Red Cross, LOST, MAP-UK, MDM, MEDAIR, Mercy Corps, MoSA, NRC, OXFAM, SCI, SFCG, TdH - It, UNDP, UNFPA, UNHCR, UNRWA, URDA, Welfare Association, WHO, Arab Puppet Theatre

**Disclaimer:** The boundaries and names shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.
**Data Source:** Lebanese Population - Central Administration of Statistics (CAS) year 2002 dataset,   Poverty data: CAS, UNDP and MoSA Living Conditions and Household Budget Survey 2004-5,
Syrian Refugee Population - UNHCR as of 30/06/2015, Humanitarian Intervention Data - Activity Info as of 30/06/2015, Palestinian Refugee Population- UNRWA, Lebanese Returnees data IOM as of 30/06/2015

A dataset, survey, database, index, census, registry, or information system with a specific proper name that can be cited, queried, or downloaded as a data source

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Input:
## Lebanon North Governorate Profile (June 2015)

#### **GENERAL OVERVIEW**

North Lebanon, which previously constituted one governorate with seven districts, was split into two governorates in 2014: Tripoli and five surrounding districts (T5) maintained the denomination of North Governorate, while the district of Akkar became a governorate by itself. Tripoli Governorate is composed of six districts; Tripoli, El Koura, El Batroun, Bcharre, Zgharta, and El Minnie-Dennie.
It has a mixed confessional population of Sunnis, Alawites, and Christians. Tripoli is the capital of the north Governorate and the second largest city in the country. Inter-agency coordination and sector coordination meetings for the North take place in Tripoli.

#### **POPULATION OVERVIEW**

# 787,709 People are living in North Governorate

##### **Location Map**

P TripoliP Naher EL Bared Akkar Beddawi 70.2% 0.1% 22% 7% 0.5%

##### 553,637  Lebanese

##### 55,080    Palestine refugees in Lebanon 4,235  Palestine refugees from Syria

**3.6%**
**11.1%**

**29.5%**
**5.4%**

(0 – 5 Years) (6 – 17 Years) (18 – 59 Years) (60+ Years)

**3.9%**
**12.5%**

**28.2%**
**5.8%**

North Batroun Bcharreh Baalbek/El-Hermel Mount Lebanon Beirut Bekaa Governorate boundaries El Nabatieh Capital South Major Towns (0 – 5 Years) (6 – 17 Years) (18 – 59 Years) (60+ Years) 25% _**193,900**_ Deprived Lebanese

##### 1,001 Lebanese returnees 173,756 Registered Syrian refugees

DEC 2014 JUN 2014 176,325 JUN 2015 173,756 P Palestinian Camps
#### **SOCIO ECONOMIC OVERVIEW**

##### 39.8% of Syrian refugees living in substandard

shelter (inc. **37.4%** in informal settlements) in North and Akkar governorates
##### 122 Informal Settlements, hosting 9,419

registered Syrian refugees
##### 3.4% refugees living in collective shelters 286 public schools. 21 public hospitals; 8 are supported 8.2% unemployment rate (MICS 2009) 26 SDCs 140  Municipalities/ 7 Union of municipalities $2,660,630 multipurpose cash distributed

(Jan-May) 171,730

**POPULATION** **El Minieh-**
**Tripoli** **El Batroun** **Bcharre** **El Koura** **Zgharta**
**COHORTS** **Dennie**

Lebanese above poverty line Deprived Lebanese Lebanese returnees Registered Syrian Refugees Palestine Refugees 184,412 80,168 767 61,077 9,289 34,049 12,025 11 16,791 0 15,680 5,538 4 2,988 0 35,590 12,569 52 17,368 0 49,313 69,227 96 61,995 50,026 40,694 14,372 71 13,537 0

#### **CHANGES IN CONTEXT JANUARY TO JUNE**

Although a double-PBIED attack on 10 January threatened to trigger a resumption of armed conflict in Tripoli, this reporting period provided further evidence that the implementation of the security plan has continued to successfully limit organized armed activity between Jabal Mohsen and Bab Tabbaneh. The security plan has been in effect in Tripoli since 1 April 2014 to prevent the resurgence of armed clashes between the Beb El Tebbeneh (Sunnis) and Jabal Mohsen (Alawites) communities. These are historically divided along sectarian lines and political affiliation against and pro the Syrian regime.

Since its implementation, the security plan has been challenged by some sporadic incidents including clashes among groups, targeted actions against some individuals and confrontation. Meanwhile search operations continue resulting in the arrest of 919 individuals residing in various locations in the North allegedly due to individuals overstating their visa or in some instances crime related activities/ suspicions. While Syrians, Lebanese and Palestinians are temporarily arrested, the majority is released after a few hours of verification while other are detained for longer periods for investigations purposes. Also, 299 individuals were arrested on terrorism related activities/ suspicions.

Crime continued at the same rates and was not affected by the implementation of the security plan while an increase in civil unrest such as demonstrations, sit-ins and roadblocks were noted during the reporting period. Other reported incidents included road blockages caused by snow and armed interpersonal and interfamily disputes.

The number of people in need in the North has remained stable since the introduction of new registration procedures.

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Input:
#### **HUMANITARIAN AND STABLIZATION TRENDS**

At the onset of the Syrian emergency, refugee started fleeing neighboring Syria through Lebanon’s northern borders, settling first along the border in Wadi Khaled, where relief efforts were initially focused. However, many continued further south to arrive in Tripoli from where they often dispersed to its five adjacent districts, with a total Lebanese population of over 550,000 persons.

As of late May, Syrian refugees were spread in over 289 villages and lived mainly in very challenging urban and semi-urban contexts.
Approximately 81 per cent of them are living in rented accommodation; however, refugees who are unable to cover the high rents resort to living in substandard accommodation including non-residential dwellings such as garages and unfinished buildings.
Partners are working to rehabilitate these to improve the standard of living. There are 16 fewer informal settlements with 4,339 less people living in them compared to December 2014.

An outreach system through Community Development Centers (CDCs), Social Development Centers (SDCs) and Refugee Outreach Volunteers (ROVs) is in place to provide support and identify vulnerable refugees with specific needs and refer them to existing services. Access to healthcare facilities remains a challenge with only 8 public hospitals which are supported – with limited bed capacity- and 5 primary health care centers in the governorate, in addition to the high costs of secondary health care.

The MRR (Map of Risks and Resources) is piloted in Minieh and Dedde municipalities as a coordination tool among all actors to link the risks and needs of the community with the actual and planned interventions. The outcome of the exercise was presented to mayor of Minieh and a dedicated coordination body was set-up to strengthen the coordination among partners and with the municipality. This exercise is still on-going.

A study conducted with northern citizens, including a majority of Lebanese, reported a continuous increase of positive relations between Lebanese and Syrians by 23 per cent and a ~~decrease in tensi~~ ons between December 2014 and March 2015, while people reporting that tensions remained t ~~he same are still the majority, with 66 per cent. This m~~ ay be due to the expanded presence of the Lebanese Army in the North follo ~~wing the late October clashes with militants in Tripo~~ li and the inclusion of vulnerable affected Lebanese and host community in the service delivery by the agencies.

Despite all the efforts put in the area ~~, overall needs remain very high especially in the mos~~ t vulnerable localities indicated in the below map, while funds are decreasing. M ~~ost public institutions are considered very weak in No~~ rth Governorate.

#### **MOST VULNERABLE LOCALITIES**

There are 31 vulnerable localities in the North, nine of which are classified as most vulnerable. Seventeen of the 31 localities are also considered as sub ~~stantial and high pressure where the ratio of refugees to deprived Lebanese is at least three to one or mor~~ e ~~Minie~~ ~~#~~ Zouq Bhannine ~~El Minié~~

**Informal Tented**
**Settlements**

~~!!~~ ~~**!!!!**~~ ! ~~**!**~~ ~~!~~ ! ~~!~~ ! ~~!~~ ~~**!!**~~ ! ~~[!]~~ ~~!!~~ ! ~~**[!]**~~ ~~!~~ ~~**!**~~ ~~!!~~ ~~[!]~~ ~~!~~ ~~**!**~~ ~~!!!~~ ~~**!**~~ ~~!~~ ! ~~!~~ ~~**!**~~ **!** ~~!~~ ~~**!**~~ ~~!~~ ~~**!**~~ **!** ! ~~**!**~~ ~~!~~ ~~**!**~~ ! ~~!!!~~ ~~**!**~~ ~~!~~ ~~**!**~~ **!** ~~!~~ ! ~~!!!~~ **!** ~~!~~ ~~**!**~~ ! ~~!~~ ~~**!**~~ !! ~~!~~ **!** ~~**!**~~ ~~!!~~ ~~**!!!!**~~ ! ~~**!**~~ ~~!~~ ! ~~!~~ ! ~~!~~ ~~**!!**~~ ! ~~[!]~~ ~~!!~~ ! ~~**[!]**~~ ~~!~~ ~~!!~~ ~~Tripoli et Tabbaneh~~ ~~Tripoli El Qobbe~~ ~~!(~~ ~~Beddaoui~~ ~~!(~~ ~~!!~~ ~~!!! !!!!~~ ~~**!**~~ ~~!!!~~ ! ~~**!**~~ ~~!!!~~ ~~**!!**~~ ~~!!~~ **!** ~~**!**~~ ~~[!]~~ ~~**!!**~~ ~~!~~ ~~**!**~~ ~~[!]~~ ~~**!!**~~ ~~!!!!!!~~ ~~**!!!**~~ ~~!~~ ~~[!]~~ ~~!~~ ~~**!**~~ ~~!!!~~ ~~**!**~~ ! ~~!~~ ~~**!**~~ **!** ~~!~~ ~~**!**~~ ~~!~~ ~~**!**~~ **!** ! ~~**!**~~ ~~!~~ ~~**!**~~ ! ~~!!!~~ ~~**!**~~ ~~!~~ ~~**!**~~ ~~!!~~ **!** ~~!~~ !!! ~~!!!~~ **!** ~~!~~ ~~**!!!**~~ ! ~~!~~ ~~**!**~~ !! ~~!~~ **!** ~~**!**~~ ~~[!]~~ ~~**!**~~ ~~!~~ ~~**!**~~ **!** ~~**!**~~ ~~!~~ ~~[!]~~ ! ~~!~~ ~~[!]~~ ~~!~~ ~~**!**~~ ! ~~!!!!~~ ~~**!**~~ ~~Mejdlaiya Zgharta~~ P !

~~Tripoli et Tell~~ ~~Tripoli~~ ~~!(~~ ~~#~~ ~~!!!~~ ~~**!**~~ **!** ~~!~~ ~~**!!**~~ ~~!~~ ~~**!**~~ **!** ! ~~**!**~~ ~~!!~~ ~~**!**~~ ~~!~~ ! ~~!!!~~ ~~**!**~~ ~~!~~ ! ~~**!!**~~ ~~!!~~ **!** ~~!~~ !!! ~~!!!~~ **!** ~~!!!!~~ ~~**!!!!!**~~ ! ~~!~~ ~~**!**~~ !! ~~!!~~ **!** ~~**!**~~ ~~[!]~~ ~~**!**~~ ~~!~~ ~~**!**~~ ~~!!~~ **!** ~~!~~ ~~**!**~~ **!** ~~**!**~~ ~~[!]~~ ~~**!**~~ ~~!!~~ ~~[!]~~ ! ~~!!~~ ~~**!**~~ ~~!~~ ~~**!**~~ ~~[!]~~ ~~!~~ ~~**!**~~ ! ~~!~~ ~~[!]~~ ~~**!!**~~ ~~!!!!!!!~~ ~~**!!**~~ ~~!~~ ~~**!**~~ ~~#~~ Informal Settlements ~~!!~~ ~~**!**~~ ~~!~~ ~~!!!!~~ ~~!~~ ~~!!~~ ~~**[!]**~~ !

!

~~Tripoli~~ ~~!~~ !

#!!!!! ~~[!]~~ ~~!!~~

!

~~!~~ !! ~~!!~~ ~~**!**~~ ~~!!~~ ~~!!!~~ ~~!(~~ ~~Zgharta~~

**!**

~~!~~ ~~!~~ ! ~~[!]~~ ~~!~~ !! ! **!** !!!!!!!!!!!! **!** !! **!** !!! **!** !

!

!!! !!

!!

! ! ! **!** ! **!** ! **!** ! !!!!

~~Miniyeh-D~~ anniyeh !!!! **!** !! **!** ! **!** !

!

!!

! **!** ! !!!!!

!!! **!!** !! **!!** !!!!! **!** ! **!** !

! [!] !

!!!!

!

!

!

~~High P~~ ressure ~~(5 Cadastres)~~ ~~Substantial Pressure~~ ~~(9 Cadastres)~~ ~~Most Vulnerable~~ 2nd Most Vulnerable ~~3rd Most Vulnerable~~ ~~4th Most Vulnerable~~ 5th Most Vulnerable ~~(~~ ~~Major cities~~ ~~Mina N~~ Tripoli el Haddadine ~~Tripoli ez Zeitoun~~ Enfé ~~!(~~ ~~!(~~ ~~Chekka~~ ~~Zgharta~~ ~~Koura~~ !

!!!

!!!!!!!

! [!] !

**!**

~~Amioun~~ !( Batroun

#

Palestinian Camps !( Bcharreh Batroun Bcharré !(

#### **HUMANITARIAN ACTORS**

86 2 Tripoli El Minieh Dennie El Koura El Batroun Zagharta Bcharre Key contacts 9 6 12 2 7 3 3 2 7 86 6 12 2

**UNHCR** Monica Noro, noro@unhcr.org **UNDP** Alain Chatry, alain.chatry@undp.org
**Ministery of Social Affairs (MoSA)** Ziad Nadri, ziadnadri@gmail.com

**North Governor** Mr Ramzi Nohra

3 8 4 11 1 5 5 3 6 3 6 3 6 2 5 1 3 4 3 8 4 1 3 3 3 1 1 2 1 3 80 3 5 3 3 1 6 1 2 1 3 80 4 4 5 1 5 2 2 1 3 2 2 1 0 2 0 0 0 2 4 4 0 1

**54 UN Agencies and NGOs operating in North**

ABAAD, AJEM Lebanon, Al Fayha'e, ANERA, ARCPA, Beddawi Pop Com, Beddawi Popular Committee, Beyond, CARE, CCP JAPAN, CISP, CLMC Lebanon, COOPI, Danish Red Cross, DRC, FAO, HDC, Heartland, HI, Himaya, HOOPS, HWA, IA, IMC, IOCC Lebanon, IOM, IQRAA, IR Lebanon, IRC, IRD, Lebanese Red Cross, MAP-UK, Mercy Corps, MoSA, MS Lebanon, MSL Lebanon, NRC, OXFAM, Pal_Scouts, Palestinian Scouts & Guides Association, PU-AMI, RESTART Lebanon, RET, RI, SCI, SFCG, Solidarités, UNDP, UNFPA, UNHCR, UNRWA, URDA, WCH, WHO

**Disclaimer:** The boundaries and names shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.
**Data Source:** Lebanese Population - Central Administration of Statistics (CAS) year 2002 dataset,   Poverty data: CAS, UNDP and MoSA Living Conditions and Household Budget Survey 2004-5,
Syrian Refugee Population - UNHCR as of 30/05/2015, Humanitarian Intervention Data - Activity Info, Palestinian Refugee Population- UNRWA

A dataset, survey, database, index, census, registry, or information system with a specific proper name that can be cited, queried, or downloaded as a data source

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Input:
**FRAGILITY AND POPULATION MOVEMENT IN AFGHANISTAN**
# FRAGILITY AND POPULATION MOVEMENT IN AFGHANISTAN

_Afghans have been enduring the adverse consequences of forced displacement for decades, way before_ _the current “refugee crisis” gained the international spotlight with the surge of asylum seekers trying_ _to escape conflict in Syria. Afghanistan is not only the country with the largest number of refugees_ _in protracted exile, but it is also facing a sharp increase in displacement trends due to the escalation_ _of internal conflict. It is estimated that 2.5 million registered Afghan refugees remain in neighboring_ _countries, with a possibly equal number of undocumented migrants with similar protection needs in_ _Iran and Pakistan_ _[1]_ _. Internal displacement is no less of a problem, with an estimated 1.2 million IDPs’_ _population potentially in need of humanitarian assistance._ _Despite the continuous deterioration of the security situation within Afghanistan, a shrinking asylum_ _space within the international community and changes in the geopolitical equilibrium at the regional_ _level have recently spurred the return (mostly involuntary) of thousands of refugees and asylum from_ _Pakistan and, in lower numbers, from Iran and Europe. As of September 7th, returns from Pakistan_ _alone account for 98,000 registered and 135,000 undocumented Afghans; additional 400,000 are_ _expected to return by the end of the year joining the growing stock of IDPs._ _The need for managing and protecting displaced populations is taking place in a country lacking a_ _system of safety nets and suffering from a severe economic crisis that has pushed at least 1.3 million_ _additional Afghans into poverty, and triggered a three-fold increase in unemployment between 2012_ _and 2014. Can Afghanistan manage the ongoing displacement challenge? Can the country absorb and_ _successfully reintegrate displaced populations under the current security and economic circumstances?_ _What priorities should the government and the international community address?_ _To answer these questions it is necessary to assess Afghanistan’s past experience with conflict and_ _displacement, as well as the main structural challenges that shape the country’s future._

## **LEARNING FROM THE PAST**

**Afghanistan has a long history of protracted international displacement.** Afghans
fled by the millions—mostly towards Iran and Pakistan—in the aftermath of the Soviet invasion of 1979; some returned to Afghanistan in the early 1990s following tightening of asylum conditions in receiving countries, while Afghanistan’s civil war and the advent of the Taliban reignited a new exodus to neighboring countries. The toppling of the Taliban regime in 2001 marked the beginning of a massive wave of returning Afghans. Between 2001 and 2015, UNHCR assisted the return of 4.8 million Afghans, and many more returned without official assistance. An estimated 20 percent of the total population currently residing in Afghanistan is made up of returnees.

### Afghanistan has a long history of displacement.

1

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Input:
**FRAGILITY AND POPULATION MOVEMENT IN AFGHANISTAN**

**Figure 1** **Assisted returns to Afghanistan**

n [ Nr. returnees ] **—** [ Cumulative distribution] 2,000 120% 1,800

**Figure 2** **Share of returns up to 2007, by district**

**Takhar**

**K unduz**

**B aghlan**

**Parwan**

**K abul**

**K apis a**

**Laghman**

**B adakhs han**

1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%

**Herat**

**Farah**

**Nimroz**

**J awzjan**

**S ar-e-P ul**

**Daykundi**

**Urozgan**

**K andahar**

**B alkh**

**S amangan**

**B amyan**

**Wardak**

**Ghazni**

**Logar**

**Paktya** **K hos t**

**Faryab**

**Ghor**

**Panjs her**

**Nooris tan**

**K unarha**

**B adghis**

**Helmand**

**Nangarhar**

**QUANTILES OF**
**RETURNEES/POP**
n [Missing] n [Low] n [Medium Low] n [Medium] n [Medium High] n [High]

**Paktika**

**Zabul**

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Source: UNHCR Assisted Returns Source: UNHCR; CSO population statistics

**Returns were concentrated in time and space,** thus posing a disproportionately large challenge to
the absorption capacity of some districts and provinces (Figure 1 and 2) [2] . While the local impact of a massive influx of refugees, and the capacity to reintegrate, depends on a range of factors [3], one thing is clear: **local absorption capacity certainly has a limit.** Once the limit—which could vary by time and area depending on local circumstances—is reached, competition over resources could trigger or reinforce

### Local absorption capacity has a limit.

pre-existing causes of conflict, especially since institutions are weak. In 2007, districts that had received the largest influx of returnees relative to the local population were more likely to suffer higher insecurity (Figure 3) [4] . Over time, intensification of conflict and saturation of local absorption capacity have also determined the **progressive**
**increase in secondary displacement among returnees.** Tellingly, the incidence of
internal displacement among the returnees who came back in 2013 is twice as high compared to those who returned in 2002, despite the fact that returnees in 2002 were almost 50 times more than in 2013 (Figure 4).

**Figure 3** **Incidence of returns and severity of**

**conflict at the district level, 2007**

**Figure 4** **Share of secondary displacement,**

**by year of return**

30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Low Medium 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Medium Medium High High 25 20 15 10 5 0 Low YEAR OF RETURN CONFLICT SEVERITY Source: Authors’ calculation based on UNHCR and SIOCC-UNDSS data 2 Source: Authors’ calculation based on ALCS 2013–14

A dataset, survey, database, index, census, registry, or information system with a specific proper name that can be cited, queried, or downloaded as a data source

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Input:
**FRAGILITY AND POPULATION MOVEMENT IN AFGHANISTAN**

The increase in secondary displacement among returnees is a strong sign that the country’s capacity to absorb and reintegrate additional inflows of returnees was already overstretched before the surge of recent months’ returns. While no data are currently available on the incidence of secondary displacement among post-2013 returns, there is no reason to believe trends will be reversed: **a higher**
**number of returns from abroad will likely result in an increase of internal displacement.** In particular,
the continued deterioration of the security situation and the economic crisis in Afghanistan are likely to further challenge the reintegration of more recent returns. Moreover, the increased competition for humanitarian assistance at the global level, together with a shrinking space for asylum internationally are likely to further complicate the management of Afghanistan’s current displacement crisis.

## **RECOGNIZING STRUCTURAL AND PRESENT** **CHALLENGES**

Afghanistan’s capacity to manage displacement has to be appraised in relation to the country’s structural and present challenges.

**Fragility and conflict** are Afghanistan’s first structural challenge. If peace and
stability are pre-requisite for development to take place, Afghanistan is (still) missing both. According to the Global Peace Index, in 2016 the country ranks the fourth less peaceful after Syria, South Sudan and Iraq. Moreover, decades of conflict have had a destabilizing effect on the social cohesion of the country, exacerbating ethnic divisions and weakening government institutions and rule of law. Similarly, decades of conflict have depleted Afghanistan’s physical and human capital which, despite the progress achieved since 2001, will constrain its growth prospects for decades to come.

### A higher number of returns from abroad will likely result in an increase of internal displacement.

Second among its structural challenges is **Afghanistan’s demographic profile.** With a total fertility rate of about 5.3 children per woman in 2014, [5] and a population growth rate of approximately 3 percent per year between 2010 and 2015, Afghanistan has the youngest population in South Asia: **48 percent of**
**Afghans are below the age of 15.** Equally, Afghanistan has the highest youth bulge [6] of any country in
the region, and the third highest youth bulge worldwide after Uganda and Chad: **more than one fifth**
**of the adult population in Afghanistan is aged between 15 and 24.** A young and growing population
can be both a challenge and an opportunity, depending on a country’s ability to invest in human capital and productively employ its growing labor force.

**Figure 5** **Youth Dependency ratio and youth bulge in Central and South Asian Countries**

50 40 30 20 10 n [ (0–15)/(Total Pop.) ] n [ (15–24)/(15+)] 47.5 37.8 35.0 34.8 31.0 [32.7] 31.1 31.4 30.6 25.9 26.4 [28.2 ] 26.5 [27.5] [26.9] [26.9 26.7] [26.7] 26.7 29.4 28.8 27.6 28.5 20.4 24.6 23.6 20.0 20.8 0 Afghanistan Tajikistan Kyrgyzstan India Turkmenistan Bhutan Sri Lanka Pakistan Nepal Bangladesh Uzbekistan Maldives Kazakhstan Iran Sources: ALCS 2013–14 and UNDESA (2015) 3

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Input:
**FRAGILITY AND POPULATION MOVEMENT IN AFGHANISTAN**

In the case of Afghanistan, a young and growing population poses tremendous challenges to its public finances, already stretched by limited revenues potential and massive security spending needs. Fiscal analysis shows that, with the current population growth, Afghanistan will need to increase human capital investments by 12 percent every year just to maintain current (inadequate) education outcomes.
Similarly, a growing labor force requires the labor market to absorb approximately 400 thousands new entrants per year. Labor demand strong enough to be able to accommodate this many workers requires sustained economic growth, which, at the moment, is beyond the country’s capacity given its fragility and security constraints [7] .

### Afghanistan is currently facing a deteriorating conflict and a severe economic crisis.

**Afghanistan is currently facing a deteriorating conflict and a severe economic**
**crisis** which further limits the fiscal space for development spending and targeted
social assistance. Violence increased to a post-2001 high of 18,414 incidents and 6,791 civilian casualties in 2015, while an increasing proportion of Afghanistan’s territory either fell under control of the anti-government elements or is currently affected by conflict. Decline in international spending due to the drawdown of international military forces, together with the deterioration of the security situation, led to severe contraction in growth. GDP growth rate was 1.3 percent in 2014 and 0.8 percent in 2015 compared to an average of 9.8 percent per year from 2003 to 2012.

**Figure 6** **Evolution of conflict and real per**

**capita GDP growth**

n [ Incident ] n [ Civilian casualties]

**—** [ GDP growth   ] [Linear (GDP growth)]

2,000 25

**Figure 7** **Youth unemployment**

n [ Rate ] **—** [ Number] 56.3 1,600 1,200 800 400 200 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20 60 50 40 41.0 1,000 900 800 700 600 34.3 37.1 15 30 27.9 500 26.4 30 27.9 26.0 22.5 21.3 400 300 200 100 10 5 20 10 Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female 0 0 0 0 National Urban Rural Source: Authors’ calculation based on UNHCR and SIOCC-UNDSS data Sources: Authors’ calculation based on ALCS 2013–14

**A sharp increase in poverty has accompanied the slowdown in growth.** Lacking any safety net system
able to help households manage the economic downturn, the poverty rate increased from 36 percent in 2011–12 to 39 percent in 2013–14. Similarly, labor market indicators deteriorated markedly, with a threefold increase in the unemployment rate over the same period. In 2013–14, the national unemployment rate was 22.6 percent and youth unemployment was 28 percent, representing one-half million male youth unemployed, two-thirds of which were living in poor rural areas. **High male-youth unemployment**
**is a concern because of its potential to increase poverty and conflict.** A growing body of literature
recognizes the direct correlation between youth bulges, lack of socio-economic inclusion and conflict.
An in-depth analysis of the effects of youth bulges on a variety of conflicts between 1950 and 2000 shows that youth bulges can cause conflict. Further, the risk of domestic armed conflict from a youth bulge becomes more severe when combined with economic stagnation and institutional fragility [8] .

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Input:
**FRAGILITY AND POPULATION MOVEMENT IN AFGHANISTAN**

## **BROADEN THE PERSPECTIVE**

**Conflict and narrow economic opportunities are familiar to Afghans.** For decades,
Afghans have coped with shocks from protracted conflict, insecurity, and the inherent uncertainty associated with agricultural livelihoods [9] . Faced with frequent shocks and uncertainty, Afghan households have developed a set of risk management strategies and risk coping mechanisms. **Traditionally, migration is at the core of**
**the risk management strategies adopted by Afghan households.** Approximately
two in three Afghans have changed residences during their lifetimes [10] . Over the past decades, millions of households have moved internationally to seek shelter from conflict. In the process, they established a complex network of socio-economic ties with neighboring countries, notably within Iran and Pakistan. Whole Afghan households have also abandoned rural areas in favor or urban areas in search of greater security, better employment opportunities, and access to services. This has contributed to exponential growth of major urban centers, especially Kabul, Afghanistan’s capital city. Young, productive men have also migrated on their own— either within Afghanistan or internationally—to diversify income sources and support their households through remittances.

Given the complex and intertwined set of challenges faced by the Afghan population, motives of migration are hardly univocal. **Migration is part of a**
**broader livelihood strategy at the household level aimed at counterbalancing**
**insecurity and the lack of local employment opportunities.** Analysis shows [11] that
households who feel more insecure in their district of residence are more likely to have economic migrants abroad; but increase in real violence actually decreases the likelihood to have a single member migrate, possibly due to increased need for protection, or due to the fact that the entire households decides to move.
Households with better economic outcomes are less likely to rely on economic migration; on the other hand, households with higher labor market vulnerability or with excess labor are more likely to diversify income sources through the migration of a male household member.

### Migration is at the core of the risk management strategies adopted by Afghan households. Afghan households rely on migration to counterbalance insecurity and lack of local employment opportunities.

Results of the analysis also confirm that **economic migration is a strategy more easily accessible to**
**households who can “afford its costs”.** In particular, having access to migration networks—which is
likely for returnee households or households who have directly experienced economic migration— reduces the costs of migration and increases the probability of household members working abroad.
Similarly, relatively richer households are more likely to have individual migrants as they are more likely to have resources to support the costs of sending migrants abroad.

These findings suggest that, despite overall benefits, **migration might have less positive outcomes**
**for the poorest and most vulnerable segments of the population.** International evidence shows that
while migration reduces poverty, the poor tend to migrate less or to migrate to low-return destinations because they lack opportunities or resources (monetary or human capital) to take advantage of better paying jobs [12] . Moreover, **migration outcomes are likely to differ depending on the forced**
**versus voluntary nature of the decision to move.**

Poverty and protection needs are widespread and largely unmet in Afghanistan. With 39 percent of the population unable to satisfy basic food and non-food needs (that is, are “poor”), and in the absence of formal safety nets to help households cope with shocks, migration is seldom the result of voluntary choice. Rather, migration is primarily the result of “ _push factors_ ” related to insecurity and lack of socio-economic opportunities. In this context, mobile households are not the only vulnerable segments of the population, and the structural factors that cause poverty in the general population overlap with those afflicting migrants.

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A data source described by its characteristics or producer rather than a proper name, containing a data noun and at least one identifying descriptor

A general reference to data, information, or statistics that contains a data noun but lacks enough specificity to identify the exact source