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Thus, incoming remittances may be a primary or supplementary livelihood strategy, and they may be used to deal with particular crises or to fund specific projects. But the fourth key point illustrated by the cases above is that there is also _outgoing_ remittance traffic: a minority of Somalis in Eastleigh also send money to Somalia and to the refugee camps. While smaller than international flows, regional remittances are important, particularly for the turbulent southern Somali region, which still has a substantial regional refugee diaspora. Some people remit out of their wages, or business income, like Mohamed, Abdiwali and Abdi. Other people receive money from relatives overseas or from other household members and send it on to relatives in the camps or in Somalia. For example, Saad, who relied on regular remittances from his children in the US, would send around $100 every two to four months to his parents and siblings who are nomads in Sanaag. Maryan, a housewife, explained that sometimes her husband, an import-export trader, gives her $50 to send to her mother in Kismayo and she tries to send perfume or clothes whenever someone she knows goes there.

Before turning to the issue of mobility patterns, it is important to mention that some interviewees felt that relying mainly on remittances was negative, for example: ‘it takes away the feeling of... the need to be self-sufficient. It takes away your pride to be dependent on someone abroad for all your needs.’ But it is also important to remember, as illustrated above, that in many cases remitting occurred between close family members where co-reliance was seen as entirely normal – and to bear in mind that the strong Somali tradition of mutual support in extended families and clans means that a wider circle of relatives may be reasonably called on for assistance than in many other contexts.

Besides, what constitutes ‘normal’ relationships and patterns of economic reliance is affected by protracted exile, the fluid and unpredictable patterns of refugee resettlement and the fact that many people working overseas are able quite easily to send what are substantial amounts by Nairobi standards. Moreover, many recipients found it hard to see alternatives, given the policy of containing refugees and giving them such limited economic rights. Finally, people often saw their reliance as a temporary phase, explaining that the remittances were to tide them over while finding work; that they were being supporting while studying; or that they were waiting to emigrate.

**Remittances and mobility patterns**

Beyond shaping people’s livelihoods in Eastleigh, remittances often intertwine with mobility to and from Nairobi, as the cases above illustrated. Interviewees’ decisions to leave Somalia were commonly prompted by the killing of relatives, often parents or siblings, in the early 1990s. During displacement, families were often split up, with parents allocating children to the care of relatives, particularly their siblings, aunts and uncles, where this seemed best for their security and welfare. This is quite common in Somali culture, but in the process of displacement the shuttling of people between households (in Somalia, in the refugee camps, and in urban areas) became a more urgent and frequent strategy for survival.

This regional mobility is often facilitated by someone sending money from abroad.
People still leave Somalia, largely in response to the insecurity in the south. Leaving 10

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overland is hazardous and where possible people prefer to travel on _qaad_ or commercial flights, in which case the flight and necessary documents have to be paid for. People also have good reasons for wanting to leave the refugee camps for Nairobi: to avoid the harsh conditions (heat, scarce rations, recurrent sickness among their children, risk of rape and violence); to access better educational opportunities and health facilities; to find work and build a different future for themselves and their families; and to get in contact with relatives abroad with a view to resettlement.
Travelling from the camps to Nairobi can be a costly and risky trip for those without proper documents. As there is the risk of ambush and attack by bandits, most refugees prefer to travel by the main road, but are frequently subjected en route to police detention and extortion or return to the camps, incurring extra costs that sometimes trigger requests to relatives overseas for assistance.

Once in Nairobi, it can take a while to start earning your living: in the interim, relatives often help out – those overseas with cash and those locally by providing somewhere to stay, food and sometimes work. There is a group of people whose presence in Eastleigh is contingent on receiving remittances, otherwise they could not afford to live there and would have to return to the camps. Thus, Rhoda moved to the city with money from her husband overseas, motivated by a mixture of health and security concerns. Conversely, some come to Nairobi intending to contact relatives overseas in order to secure assistance – as telephone, internet and money transfer services are more widely available in the city, at competitive rates.

Moreover, households receiving remittances are often less likely to fragment, with parents able to provide for all their children rather than sending them away to relatives, and able to expand, by taking in relatives, from the camps, and from Somalia, particularly siblings or their children, and often subletting rooms to others.
In a fluid and sometimes hazardous economic setting, such solidarity is an important cultural and economic asset.

The second key point is that remittances also intertwine with mobility beyond the region. Many people come to Nairobi to try to arrange resettlement in the West, often with the heartfelt wish to be reunited with much-missed children, husbands and wives, and parents resettled overseas. The circumscribed legal and economic existence of Somali refugees in Kenya is another major motivation: Many people were supposed to make money here, but the government... Even me myself, if I get a permit to stay in Nairobi...
then I can make money, I can try to sustain my own life... [but] there is no way... my last incentive was $50 per month... When I was _teaching_ ... Not enough for myself alone, not enough for the family.

I would love to export myself! Otherwise, you know the suffering here. You can’t find jobs, you can’t find any other opportunities...
personally, the only thing I can do is... community service. But that will not pay me much to take care of the family. It is difficult.

While idealized images of the West certainly abound, the basic material inequalities are staggering and undeniable. Indeed, remittances seem to have a potent ‘demonstration effect’ for the benefits of migration: 11

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Once they are here, they are not very useful, they are not very productive, they’re just consumers, because there’s no source of employment, there’s no way they can find money, so they have to ask for money every time... So, it is better for us to go to the countries where there are opportunities, the greener grasses, so we eat that grass and send some of it to our relatives back home!

There are three main channels of onward migration to the West. First, there is family reunion or sponsorship. Conditions for family reunion vary across countries, but it is generally an option for spouses and children under 21, but often requires a financial guarantee of some kind. The second channel is through official resettlement programmes aimed at resettling individuals or groups deemed to face particular persecution. There were around 4,000 refugees resettled through UNHCR in 2006 (UNHCR 2007).

Third, there are other channels often termed ‘irregular’, sometimes piggy-backing on elements of the two ‘official’ methods outlined above, sometimes involving brokers ( _mukhalis_ ). Sperl (2001) points out that originally UNHCR used ‘irregular’ only to describe unlawful methods of entry, but the term ‘irregular mover’, carrying pejorative overtones, is increasingly applied to all refugees leaving a first country of asylum. He challenges this: ‘What is “irregular” about people who seek to leave an often de facto hopeless situation in a camp or a slum, in order to seek a better future through education, employment or resettlement?’ (Sperl 2001: 26).

Although viewed by governments as illegal, ‘irregular’ migration has a rather everyday quality when viewed from the streets of Eastleigh. Against the background of the constraints of life as refugees in Kenya, arranging to be smuggled to a richer country is seen by those involved as entirely acceptable behaviour. In contrast, going abroad and earning a good living but failing to help relatives back in Kenya or Somalia is seen as unacceptable behaviour. According to UNHCR, ‘irregular secondary movement... may... be a symptom of protracted hopelessness among longstanding refugee populations,’ (UNHCR 2004: 5). Put another way, this onward movement can be part of a quest for self-reliance and rights.

The diaspora often plays a key role in facilitating and financing resettlement in the West. First, they provide information, are sometimes able to request reunion, and deal with paperwork or other arrangements from abroad, and assist on arrival. Second, they often meet the costs of emigration, which can range from nil – on some resettlement programmes - to around $5,000+ for alternative arrangements. In both official and informal emigration arrangements, Nairobi is a key location –where people can meet, make arrangements through social networks, access brokers, and attend interviews at the UNHCR and the Joint Voluntary Agency (JVA) which resettles refugees in the US. A third common element is to send money so that relatives can come and stay in Nairobi while making their arrangements.

Yet while many people come to Eastleigh with _buufis_ (longing for resettlement, explored in detail by Horst 2006), those doing successful business are less likely to be affected. Moreover, many people come to Nairobi to arrange resettlement, but months gradually turn into years.

12

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For example, Fadumo, a young woman originally from the north east of Somalia, now has a business in a market in Eastleigh. When the civil war broke out and the relatives she was living with fled, she was forced into a marriage at a young age for protection. Later her husband subsequently left for Europe and cut off contact with her and her first child. An aunt helped her to come to Nairobi, so that she could be resettled in the US with the aunt’s family. But she was rejected during the screening process and was left high and dry in Eastleigh with her daughter, with no resources and few contacts. She made friends with women working in the market and began selling clothes for them on credit to other women she knew, gradually building up the funds for her own business. She keeps in touch with her parents, who are pastoralists, via the _taar_ (radio operator), and every four months or so, when she is able, she sends them $50 or $100. She is not a registered refugee and has no prospects of resettlement.

**Repercussions in the wider urban economy**

Beyond the direct effects on those receiving remittances and their immediate families, which was the main focus of the fieldwork, remittances have some indirect effects in the wider urban economy, in terms of social differentiation and economic activity.

First, remittances can affect relative socio-economic statuses. The task of assessing the impact of remittances on social differentiation in Eastleigh is particularly complex both because the Somali refugee presence is relatively new and transient, and for some their presence in Eastleigh is entirely contingent on remittances. Moreover, their fortunes are likely to be particularly fluid compared with a more established population. The socio-economic status of individual refugees has anyway changed dramatically since 1991 as many were dispossessed of assets in Somalia, and, in the words of one interviewee: ‘Up till now, we have not regained the life we had in Somalia.’ Thus, both the reference group and the baseline for comparison are unclear.

However, on the whole, refugees in Nairobi are more likely to be from urban than rural backgrounds, and those benefiting from remittances mainly come from originally comfortable families able to finance long-distance emigration of a close relative to the West. People who receive regular remittances, although often living frugally, are visibly more comfortable than those eking out a living at the harder end of the informal economy. According to one resident: “You see a difference between those who receive remittances and those who do not – even in simple terms, those who receive usually dress better. They can afford to send their children to good schools. Other people live in much more critical situations.” While it is a place of both deprivation and entrepreneurial wealth, Eastleigh is a long way from being the poorest district in Nairobi, and there are other parts of Eastlands and the slum settlements where people live much harder lives. Remittances undoubtedly make a difference by providing for a number of families who might otherwise be competing for low-wage jobs in the informal economy. Moreover, the benefits of receiving remittances are to a degree re-circulated through local family and social family networks, building the social capital of recipients.

A second wider repercussion of remittances involves the effects of the spending and investment of this money by recipients in the local economy. In contrast with the 13

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outward-bound traffic of remittances by Kenyan city residents to rural relatives and investment in their rural homes, Somali remittances are largely in-bound traffic.
Money transfer operators usually pay remittances and trade transfers out to recipients in hard currency, which is then converted into Kenyan Shillings. They are spent in the city economy, indeed mainly in Eastleigh as many refugees tend to avoid going into town, contributing to high levels of local demand for goods and services, fuelling business expansion on a considerable scale.

Many of the businesses meeting this demand are Somali businesses, initiated with the help of relatives overseas. By 2005, a total of 2,800 business people, mainly Somalis, were registered with Eastleigh Business Community (EBC), which was established in 1999. Eastleigh is increasingly attracting customers from all over Nairobi, and becoming an important part of the wider city economy.

More specifically, there is a thriving business in providing services specifically of use to Somali and other refugees, including money transfer and exchange, travel agencies, telephone and internet bureaux, language schools, many of which are meeting a primarily remittance-driven demand. Money transfer is the most obvious example: there are numerous money transfer operators, popularly known as _xawilaad_ in Eastleigh.

In Kenya, officially only banks or money transfer operators in partnership with banks are licensed to transfer money. Western Union offices are everywhere, but it has made little headway with the Somali refugees who tend to use Somali operators, some of whom have forex licences and others operate entirely in the informal market. [15] Money exchange is also in great demand in Eastleigh, in part because many remittances are collected in dollars and may then be exchanged into Kenyan Shillings.
There is a large informal market with numerous small-scale operators.

Another example of making business out of recipients is language schools. For example, Yusuf came to Kenya as a boy and grew up in the camps. He then came to Eastleigh and borrowed money from relatives living locally to establish one of the district’s many one-room private schools for adults. By the third month he had 50 students, learning English, Arabic, and Maths while trying to arrange onward migration to the West or the Middle East. He had also begun to repay his relatives: ‘So life’s not now bad, it’s moving. To me, I get no other help from like, UK or from America, but I get indirectly because the students I have at school, they get assistance from their relatives in the UK, Europe or America or elsewhere.’

**Conclusions**

Many people displaced from Somalia and living a protracted exile in Kenya have selfsettled in Nairobi’s Eastleigh district, defying the Kenyan government’s attempts to contain the refugee population in remote areas, not content to wait for elusive durable solutions. The newcomers have had a significant impact on the urban landscape and social and economic relations in Eastleigh.

15 Consultations with businesspeople and international agencies (February 2005) and
[www.centralbank.go.ke](http://www.centralbank.go.ke/) 14

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While Nairobi is a distant outpost from the regions of the Horn of Africa that they have historically occupied, it has become a crossroads for displaced people from Somalia. It is an important hub in Somalis’ increasingly global information, trade, finance and family networks. For many, Eastleigh is a staging post to an uncertain future. It is a place where, by connecting into wider social networks, opportunities might arise. A minority, it seems – and generally people with secure status in Kenya or business interests - actually make a conscious decision to settle there. For many, though, a few months turn into a few years, passing the time working, strategizing, or simply waiting.

While many of the uses of remittances in this context were similar to those in the countries of origin, remittances were also used by people to deal with the specific problems of protracted and unresolved displacement. For example, people are moving from Somalia and the camps to Nairobi, often with the help of funds from relatives in the region or overseas. Women with children sometimes receive money from relatives overseas to relocate from the camps to the city because of fears for their safety.

Once in Nairobi, some people’s living expenses are covered by people overseas. By investing larger remittances in businesses, some refugees are able to provide for themselves and often subsequently assist others locally, in the camps or in Somalia.
But interviewees’ investment of remittances was limited to the informal sector and constrained by their ambiguous politico-legal status in Nairobi. Sometimes people requested money to secure release from police detention. Remittances and other forms of diaspora support are also intertwined with patterns of onward movement whereby refugees seek a new life overseas.

All this has consequences in terms of reducing reliance on international aid in the refugee camps. An unknown number of displaced people from Somalia never registered with UNHCR sometimes because they received diaspora assistance and were able to stay in the city. Receiving remittances allowed many people to leave the camps. It is well-known that those leaving the camps routinely give their cards to another family, so that they can benefit from the rations, before the card is eventually cancelled (Hyndman 2000; Kibreab 2004). It seems likely that a portion of Eastleigh’s refugee population would have to return to the camps if they did not receive remittances to cover their living expenses. Thus, remittances in many cases partially or fully release refugees from the aid relationship.

Yet there is a strong sense of contingency about remittances as a livelihood strategy among recipients in Eastleigh. They tended to be incorporated into the remittance process in a secondary or supplementary role. A minority of Somali people in Eastleigh - often those occupied in successful trading activities or those who themselves receive remittances – send remittances to Somalia or to the refugee camps.
But they are less often able to completely cover the recipients’ needs, and if there are relatives _dibadaha_ (outside), these are usually the main port of call for assistance.

Turning to recipients in Eastleigh, if there are other relatives in serious need in Somalia, then their needs may be prioritised. Most regular recipients in Eastleigh did not expect to continue to receive remittances in the long term. Even people relying on remittances as a primary source of income, whose sender had a strong social responsibility to support them, usually had a plan to emigrate, or find a job, or start a 15

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business. Few people saw their current situation – in Eastleigh, relying on remittances

- as a feasible long-term status quo.

While undoubtedly greatly ameliorating the living conditions of many refugees, the extent to which remittances, in this context, are generating sustainable livelihoods is in doubt. The general view is that ‘a livelihood is sustainable when it can cope with and recover from stresses and shocks and maintain or enhance its capability and assets both now and in the future’ (DFID 1999: 1). Although remittances clearly responded to crises experienced by recipients in many instances, often the transfers left people no more capable of dealing with future crises themselves than they were before. The major exception was when remittances were invested in providing an independent livelihood, by establishing a business.

There is a growing recognition of the role played by resettled refugees and labour migrants in the welfare of refugees affected by protracted displacement (Jacobsen 2006; Sperl 2001; UNHCR 2006; Van Hear 2003). Van Hear asks whether ‘...transnationalism may in itself be a “durable solution” for conditions of displacement – or at least an “enduring” solution. This might mean considering the encouragement or promotion of transnationalism,’ (Van Hear 2003:15). According to UNHCR’s 2006 report _The State of the World’s Refugees_, UNHCR has been considering the possibility of encouraging migration for work as a means for refugees to provide for themselves.

It is important to underline, as Van Hear does, that refugees engaging in transnational activities have not necessarily found a ‘durable solution’ to their original displacement. For example, a Somali man working in the Gulf, with a permit to work as a labourer may send money back to help maintain his family who are _prima facie_ refugees in Kenya.

While this can certainly improve the welfare of the recipients, and the arrangement may indeed be ‘enduring’, it is clear this is not a solution to their legal predicament in the way that repatriation, local integration or resettlement in a third country can be.
Neither party has regained in their countries of residence the rights denied them in their country of origin. Indeed, the remittance economy is in some respects maintained by immigration and asylum restrictions that can separate close family members.

Moreover, in contexts of protracted and unresolved displacement, it is hard for refugees to maximize the potential value of any remittance funds that they receive.
Furthermore, the capacity of resettled refugees and labour migrants to offer support to family back home may be greatly limited (Lindley 2007b; Riak Akuei 2005). In sum, while remittances are an important aspect of refugees’ livelihoods, it is critical that we continue to campaign for better legal security and recognition of the rights of displaced people in Kenya and elsewhere.

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**REFERENCES**

African Population and Health Research Center (2002) _Population and Health_ _Dynamics in Nairobi’s Informal Settlements,_ Nairobi: African Population and Health Research Center.
Anderson, D.M. (2005) ‘‘Yours in Struggle for Majimbo’. Nationalism and the Party Politics of Decolonization in Kenya, 1955-64’, _Journal of Contemporary_ _History_, 40(3): 547-564.
Anderson, D.M. (2002) ‘Vigilantes, violence and the politics of public order in Kenya’, _African Affairs_, 101: 531-555.
Bakewell (2007) ‘Keeping Them in Their Place: the ambivalent relationship between development and migration in Africa’, African Studies Seminar, University of Oxford, 10 [th] May 2007.
Campbell, E.H. (2005) _Formalizing the informal economy: Somali refugee and_ _migrant trade networks in Nairobi_, Geneva: Global Commission on International Migration Global Migration Perspectives No. 47.
Crisp, J. (1999) _A state of insecurity: a political economy of violence in refugee-_ _populated areas of Kenya_ Geneva: UNHCR, New Issues in Refugee Research Working Paper No.16.
Crisp, J. (2003). No Solution in Sight: the Problem of Protracted Refugee Situations in Africa. Centre for Comparative Immigration Studies Working Paper No.
68. San Diego: University of California.
DFID (1999) Sustainable Livelihoods Guidance Sheets. London: DFID Dick, S. (2002) ‘Liberiatns in Ghana: living without humanitarian assistance’ _UNHCR New Issues in Refugee Research_ No. 57. Geneva: UNHCR Farah, N. (2000) _Yesterday, tomorrow: voices from the Somali diaspora_, London: Cassell.
Gimode, E.A. (2001) ‘An Anatomy of Violent Crime and Insecurity in Kenya: The Case of Nairobi 1985-1999’, _Africa Development_, 26(1 & 2): 295-335.
Goldsmith, P. (1997) ‘The Somali Impact on Kenya 1990-1993: The View From Outside the Camps’, in H.M.Adam and R.Ford (eds.) _Mending Rips in the Sky:_ _Options for Somali Communities in the 21st Century_, Lawrenceville, NJ: Red Sea Press: 461-483.
Horst, C. (2006). _Transnational Nomads: How Somalis Cope with Refugee Life in_ _the Dadaab Camps of Kenya_ . Oxford: Berghahn Books.
Human Rights Watch (2002) _Hidden in Plain View: Refugees Living Without_ _Protection in Nairobi and Kampala_, New York: Human Rights Watch.
Hyndman, J. (2000) _Managing Displacement. Refugees and the Politics of_ _Humanitarianism_, Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press.
Jacobsen, K. (2005) _The Economic Life of Refugees_, Bloomfield, CT: Kumarian Press.
Kibreab, G. (1993) ‘The Myth of Dependency among Camp Refugees in Somalia 1979-1989’, _Journal of Refugee Studies_ 6(4):321-349.
Lewis, I.M. (2002) A Modern History Of Somalia - Nation And State In The Horn of Africa, London: Longman, 4th Edition.
Lindley, A. (2006a) The dynamics and effects of remittances in insecure settings: the Somali case, DPhil Thesis, Department of International Development, University of Oxford.

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Lindley, A. (2007a) ‘Remittances in Fragile Settings: A Somali Case Study,’ Households in Conflict Network Working Paper No. 27. Brighton: University of Sussex.
Lindley, A. (2007b) ‘The Early Morning Phonecall: Remittances from a Refugee Diaspora Perspective,’ Centre on Migration, Policy and Society Working Paper No.47. Oxford: University of Oxford.
Milner, J. (2006) ‘Somali refugees in Kenya: Abdication and containment’, in _The_ _politics of asylum in Africa: the cases of Kenya, Tanzania and Guinea_, DPhil Thesis, Department of International Development, University of Oxford.
Moret, J., S. Baglioni and D. Efionayi-Mäder (2005) _The Path of Somali Refugees_ _into Exile: A Comparative Analysis of Secondary Movements and Policy_ _Responses_ . SFM Studies No. 46. Geneva: Swiss Forum for Migration and Population Studies Pérouse de Montclos, M and P. Kagwanja (2000) ‘Refugee Camps of Cities? The Socio-economic Dynamics of the Dadaab and Kakuma Camps in Northern Kenya.’ _Journal of Refugee Studies_, 13(2): 205:222 Riak Akuei, S. (2005) _Remittances as unforeseen burdens: the livelihoods and social_ _obligations of Sudanese refugees_, Geneva: Global Commission on International Migration, Global Migration Perspectives No.18 Savage, K. and Harvey, P. (Eds.) (2007) _Remittances during crises: Implications for_ _humanitarian response_ . Humanitarian Policy Group Report No.25. London: Overseas Development Institute.
Sirola, S. (2001) ‘A Comparative Study of the Psychosocial Situation of the East African Refugees in Kenya and Finland’, in M.S.Lilius (ed.) _Variations on the_ _Theme of Somaliness_, Turku: Centre for Continuing Education, Åbo Akademi University: 336-345.
Sperl, S. (2001) Evaluation of UNHCR’s policy on refugees in urban areas. A case study review of Cairo. Geneva: UNHCR Evaluation Policy Analysis Unit Turton, D. (1972) ‘Somali Resistance to Colonial Rule and the Development of Somali Political Activity in Kenya 1893-1960’, _Journal of African History_, 13(1): 119-143.
UNHCR (2004) Protracted Refugee Situations Standing Committee 30 [th] Meeting, 10 [th] June 2004. EC/54/SC/CRP/14.
UNHCR (2006). _The State of the World’s Refugees: Human displacement in the new_ _millennium._ Oxford: Oxford University Press.
UNHCR (2007) _2006 Global Trends_, Geneva: UNHCR.
USCR (US Committee for Refugees and Immigrants) (1997) _World Refugee Survey_ _1997_ . Washington DC: USCR.
Van Hear, N. (2002) ‘Sustaining societies under strain: remittances as a form of transnational exchange in Sri Lanka and Ghana’, in N.Al-Ali and K.Koser (eds.) _New Approaches to Migration?_ London: Routledge.
Van Hear, N. (2003) From durable solutions to transnational relations: home and exile among refugee diasporas. New Issues in Refugee Research No. 83.
Geneva: UNHCR.
Verdirame, G. (1999) ‘Human Rights and Refugees: The Case of Kenya’, _Journal of_ _Refugee Studies_, 12(1): 54-77 World Bank (2006) _Global Economic Prospects. Economic Implications of_ _Remittances and Migration_, Washington: World Bank.

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**FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY**

Report No: PAD5029 INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT PROJECT APPRAISAL DOCUMENT

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Input: CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective April 27, 2022) Currency Unit = Jordanian dinar (JOD) JOD 1 = US$1.41 US$ 1 = JOD 0.71 FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31 Regional Vice President: Ferid Belhaj Country Director: Saroj Kumar Jha Regional Director: Ayat Soliman Practice Manager: Marianne Grosclaude Task Team Leader(s): [Svetlana Edmeades, Mohamed Hassan Abdulkader, ] Tobias Baedeker

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Input: ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ACG Anti-Corruption Guidelines ARDI Agriculture Resilience, Value Chain Development and Innovation Program CBJ Central Bank of Jordan CCDR Country Climate and Development Report COVID Coronavirus disease CPI Consumer Price Index DA Designated Account DFIL Disbursement and Financial Information Letter E&S Environmental and Social ECT Emergency Cash Transfers EHS Environmental, Health, and Safety Guidelines ESF Environmental and Social Framework ESCP Environmental and Social Commitment Plan ESMF Environmental and Social Management Framework ESIA Economic and Social Impact Assessment EU European Union FAO Food and Agriculture Organization FM Financial Management FO Financial Officer GDP Gross Domestic Product GFMIS Government Financial Management Information System GFRP Global Food Crisis Response Program GIIP Good International Industry Practice GOJ Government of Jordan GRM Grievance Redress Mechanism IFRs Interim Financial Reports INT Integrity Vice Presidency (INT) IMF International Monetary Fund JACPA Jordan Association of Certified Public Accountants LMP Labor Management Plan MENA Middle East and North Africa MOA Ministry of Agriculture MOF Ministry of Finance MOITS Ministry of Industry, Trade and Supply MOPIC Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation MOSD Ministry of Social Development mVAM mobile Vulnerability, Analysis and Monitoring NAF National Aid Fund OHS Occupational Health and Safety OP/BP Operational Policies/Bank Procedures PCT Project Coordination Team PDO Project Development Objective PforR Program for Results

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Input: POM Project Operations Manual PPSD Project Procurement Strategy for Development SEA/SH Sexual Exploitation and Abuse and Sexual Harassment SEP Stakeholder Engagement Plan SMEs Small- and Medium Enterprises SSN Social Safety Net STEP Systematic Tracking of Exchanges in Procurement TA Technical Assistance TOR Terms of Reference UN United Nations UNHCR The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees US United States US$ United States Dollar WA Withdrawal Application WBG World Bank Group WFP World Food Programme yoy Year-on-year

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Input:
**The World Bank**
Emergency Food Security Project (P178936) TABLE OF CONTENTS

**DATASHEET ........................................................................................................................... 1**

**I.** **STRATEGIC CONTEXT ...................................................................................................... 6**

A. Country Context................................................................................................................................ 6 B. Sectoral and Institutional Context .................................................................................................... 8 C. Relevance to Higher Level Objectives ............................................................................................. 12

**II.** **PROJECT DESCRIPTION .................................................................................................. 15**

A. Project Development Objective ..................................................................................................... 15 B. Project Components ....................................................................................................................... 15 C. Project Beneficiaries ....................................................................................................................... 20 D. Results Chain .................................................................................................................................. 20 E. Rationale for Bank Involvement and Role of Partners ................................................................... 22 F. Lessons Learned and Reflected in the Project Design .................................................................... 22

**III.** **IMPLEMENTATION ARRANGEMENTS ............................................................................ 24**

A. Institutional and Implementation Arrangements .......................................................................... 24 B. Results Monitoring and Evaluation Arrangements......................................................................... 24 C. Sustainability ................................................................................................................................... 25

**IV.** **PROJECT APPRAISAL SUMMARY ................................................................................... 25**

A. Technical, Economic and Financial Analysis (if applicable) ............................................................ 25 B. Fiduciary .......................................................................................................................................... 27 C. Legal Operational Policies ............................................................................................................... 31 D. Environmental and Social ............................................................................................................... 31

**GRIEVANCE REDRESS SERVICES ............................................................................................ 33**

**KEY RISKS ............................................................................................................................ 33**

**RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND MONITORING .......................................................................... 36**

**ANNEX 1: Implementation Arrangements and Support Plan .......................................... 44**

**ANNEX 2: Financial Management .................................................................................. 45**

**ANNEX 3: Summary of Wheat and Barley Value Chains ................................................. 53**

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Input:
**The World Bank**
Emergency Food Security Project (P178936) DATASHEET

**BASIC INFORMATION**
~~BASIC~~ ~~INFO~~ ~~TABLE~~ Country(ies) Project Name Jordan Emergency Food Security Project Environmental and Social Risk Project ID Financing Instrument Process Classification Investment Project P178936 Substantial Financing

**Financing & Implementation Modalities**

Urgent Need or Capacity Constraints (FCC)

[ ] Multiphase Programmatic Approach (MPA) [ ] Contingent Emergency Response Component (CERC)

[ ] Series of Projects (SOP) [ ] Fragile State(s)

[ ] Performance-Based Conditions (PBCs) [ ] Small State(s)

[ ] Financial Intermediaries (FI) [ ] Fragile within a non-fragile Country

[ ] Project-Based Guarantee [ ] Conflict

[ ] Deferred Drawdown [✓] Responding to Natural or Man-made Disaster

[ ] Alternate Procurement Arrangements (APA) [ ] Hands-on Enhanced Implementation Support (HEIS) Expected Approval Date Expected Closing Date 13-May-2022 31-Dec-2024 Bank/IFC Collaboration No

**Proposed Development Objective(s)**

To ensure the availability of basic grains and mitigate the impact of high commodity prices in Jordan Page 1 of 54

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Input:
**The World Bank**
Emergency Food Security Project (P178936)

**Components**

**Component Name** **Cost (US$, millions)**

Securing food and feed to reduce short term vulnerability to supply shocks 460.00 Addressing food security to mitigate commodity risks 30.00

**Organizations**

Borrower: Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation (MOPIC) Implementing Agency: Ministry of Industry, Trade and Supply (MoITS)

**PROJECT FINANCING DATA (US$, Millions)**

**SUMMARY-NewFin1**

**Total Project Cost** 490.00

**Total Financing** 490.00

**of which IBRD/IDA** 490.00

**Financing Gap** 0.00

**DETAILS-NewFinEnh1**

**World Bank Group Financing**

International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) 490.00

**Expected Disbursements (in US$, Millions)**

**WB Fiscal Year** 2022 2023 2024 2025

**Annual** 0.50 480.00 8.00 1.50

**Cumulative** 0.50 480.50 488.50 490.00

**INSTITUTIONAL DATA**

**Practice Area (Lead)** **Contributing Practice Areas**

Page 2 of 54

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Input:
**The World Bank**
Emergency Food Security Project (P178936) Agriculture and Food Finance, Competitiveness and Innovation

**Climate Change and Disaster Screening**

This operation has been screened for short and long-term climate change and disaster risks

**SYSTEMATIC OPERATIONS RISK-RATING TOOL (SORT)**

**Risk Category** **Rating**

1. Political and Governance ⚫ Moderate

2. Macroeconomic ⚫ Substantial 3. Sector Strategies and Policies ⚫ Substantial 4. Technical Design of Project or Program ⚫ Moderate 5. Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability ⚫ Substantial 6. Fiduciary ⚫ Substantial 7. Environment and Social ⚫ Substantial 8. Stakeholders ⚫ Substantial 9. Other 10. Overall ⚫ Substantial

**COMPLIANCE**

**Policy**
Does the project depart from the CPF in content or in other significant respects?

[ ] Yes [✓] No Does the project require any waivers of Bank policies?

[✓] Yes [ ] No Page 3 of 54

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Input:
**The World Bank**
Emergency Food Security Project (P178936) Have these been approved by Bank management?

[✓] Yes [ ] No Is approval for any policy waiver sought from the Board?

[ ] Yes [✓] No

**Environmental and Social Standards Relevance Given its Context at the Time of Appraisal**

**E & S Standards** **Relevance**

Assessment and Management of Environmental and Social Risks and Impacts Relevant Stakeholder Engagement and Information Disclosure Relevant Labor and Working Conditions Relevant Resource Efficiency and Pollution Prevention and Management Relevant Community Health and Safety Relevant Land Acquisition, Restrictions on Land Use and Involuntary Resettlement Not Currently Relevant Biodiversity Conservation and Sustainable Management of Living Natural Resources Indigenous Peoples/Sub-Saharan African Historically Underserved Traditional Local Communities Not Currently Relevant Not Currently Relevant Cultural Heritage Relevant Financial Intermediaries Not Currently Relevant

**NOTE** : For further information regarding the World Bank’s due diligence assessment of the Project’s potential
environmental and social risks and impacts, please refer to the Project’s Appraisal Environmental and Social Review Summary (ESRS).

**Legal Covenants**

Sections and Description The Borrower, through MoITS, shall prepare by May 31, 2022 an interim Project Operations Manual (POM) for Component 1, which will also constitute a condition for disbursement of proceeds from Component 1.

Sections and Description Page 4 of 54

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Input:
**The World Bank**
Emergency Food Security Project (P178936) The Borrower shall by no later than two (2) months after the Effectiveness Date prepare a complete Project Operations Manual for both components.

Sections and Description The Borrower shall by no later than two (2) months after the Effectiveness Date designate a Project Steering Committee that includes representatives of MOPIC, MOF, MOITS, and Ministry of Agriculture.

Sections and Description The Borrower shall by no later than two (2) months after the Effectiveness Date prepare an annual work plan and budget acceptable to the World Bank.

**Conditions**

Page 5 of 54

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**The World Bank**
Emergency Food Security Project (P178936)

**I.** **STRATEGIC CONTEXT**

**A. Country Context**

**1.** **Over the past decade, Jordan has faced a number of external shocks that directly affected economic**
**growth and the economy’s ability to create enough productive jobs for its young and fast-growing population.**
Headwinds started with the global financial crisis in 2008 leading to a dampening of economic activity in 2009, while the accompanying policy response—including lower taxes and debt accumulation— was not enough to stimulate growth. Second, regional conflicts erupting in 2011 disrupted trade routes to key trade partners, including Turkey and the European Union (EU). For example, exports have been adversely affected by the closure of the border with Iraq in 2014. World Bank estimates show that the Syrian conflict alone has led to a 1.6 percentage point lower growth during 2010-18. [1] Moreover, Jordan experienced a large refugee influx and is currently hosting almost 1.3 million Syrians (representing almost 13 percent of the total population, of which 674,268 are registered refugees with United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) [2], which has put tremendous pressure on public services, and on food security [3] . Third, the disruption of favorably priced natural gas supplies from Egypt (also in 2011), created another major shock and had a serious implication for Jordan’s energy intensive manufacturing sector, negatively impacting competitiveness [4], economic growth and public debt. [5] Fourth, the economic slowdown in Gulf countries (following depressed oil prices in 2014) led to a significant drop in external inflows. These external shocks have dampened Jordan’s growth momentum leading to persistently sluggish growth dynamics along with increased macroeconomic vulnerability.

**2.** **The COVID-19 pandemic has had significant economic impact on Jordan, given the country’s small and**
**open economy with strong linkages with the rest of the world.** Jordan’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
contracted by 1.6 percent in 2020, compared to 2.0 percent growth in 2019. The pandemic has had particularly profound impacts on key sectors for the Jordanian economy, such as the service sector, including travel and tourism. Jordan’s unemployment rate, which marginally increased from 18.3 percent to 19.1 percent between 2017 and 2019, rose significantly as a result of the pandemic shock, reaching 23.2 percent in 2020. Female unemployment, which had been declining between 2017 and 2019, from 31.2 percent to 27 percent, rose sharply to 30.7 percent in 2020. Moreover, youth unemployment (15-24 years) soared from 40.6 percent in 2019 to an unprecedented high of 46.0 percent in 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic has also had severe impacts on Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs), which provide 52 percent of private sector employment in the country, [6] including a decline in demand, reduced supply, tightening credit conditions, and a fall in investment.

**3.** **Jordan’s economy nonetheless has weathered the COVID-19 shock better than many peers.** In global
comparison, Jordan’s GDP contraction in 2020 remained relatively muted, in part due to the Government of Jordan 1 World Bank. 2020. _The Fallout of War: The Regional Consequences of the War in Syria_ . Washington, DC: World Bank.
_[https://www.worldbank.org/en/region/mena/publication/fallout-of-war-in-syria.](https://www.worldbank.org/en/region/mena/publication/fallout-of-war-in-syria)_ 2 As of 31 March 2022.
3 Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life”. (World Food Summit, 1996) 4 By 2015, although, the balance between NEPCO revenues and the generation cost has been restored but electricity cost had become the binding constraint to growth and product diversification. (Hausmann, R., et al., 2019. "Jordan: The Elements of a Growth Strategy," CID Working Papers 346, Center for International Development at Harvard University.).
5 Government of Jordan caped the tariff response to spare the bulk of the population from large tariff increases and produced an accumulated energy sector debt of about 18 percent of GDP, held by the Central Government and NEPCO (World Bank, 2018: “Jordan First Equitable Growth Job Creation Programmatic Development Policy Financing Project”).
6 Jordan Loan Guarantee Corporation (JLGC). June 2019.

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Input:
**The World Bank**
Emergency Food Security Project (P178936) (GOJ)’s timely fiscal and monetary stimuli, efficient management of the health crisis as well as a substantial improvement in terms of trade (as a result of the decline in international oil prices during 2020). In 2021, real GDP grew by 2.2 percent reflecting reasonably strong bounce back. Nevertheless, despite this turn around, high unemployment rates and unresolved structural challenges remain a concern. According to the World Bank’s Jobs Diagnostic (2019) [7] the economy needs at least six percent growth to make a dent in the unemployment rate, which is three times the level experienced since 2010. Thus, the current rate of unemployment at 23.3 percent (last quarter of 2021) and of labor force participation rate (33.5 percent total, 53.8 percent for men and 13.6 percent for women), present a sizeable challenge for Jordan. Furthermore, Jordan’s foreign direct investment (FDI) flows have notably declined over the past decade, from 6.1 percent of GDP in 2010 to 1.5 percent of GDP in 2019—foregoing a potential source for productivity gains, dynamism, and external funding for the economy. [8]

**4.** **Jordan’s economy is facing increased price pressures.** Even before the war in Ukraine, significant
disruptions to global supply chains caused by the COVID-19 pandemic have further affected trade, increasing the economic vulnerability of Jordan. Being an import-dependent small open economy, unfavorable changes in Jordan’s terms-of-trade have negatively impacted domestic price settings during 2021. This trend was further accentuated by the rise in global transportation costs. [9] Consequently, headline CPI inflation clocked in at an average 1.3 percent in 2021 - the highest rate in 3 years. However, in regional comparison, inflation in Jordan remained low. In 2021, the central government’s overall fiscal deficit (including grants) reached 5.7 percent of GDP, or 1.6 percent of GDP lower than 2020 and 0.4 percent of GDP below the budget target. Timely donor support, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program [10] (including program augmentation as well as front loading) have helped alleviate pressure from the external sector. At end 2021, the Central Bank of Jordan’s gross official foreign reserves reached US$19 billion or almost US$2 billion higher than the previous year.

**5.** **The war in Ukraine has caused a major shock to global commodity markets and poses a major threat to**
**global food security** . With Ukraine and the Russian Federation being major global producers of basic agricultural
commodities (wheat, maize, oilseeds), fertilizer and fuel, the war in Ukraine has introduced significant instability and uncertainty in global agricultural commodity, energy and fertilizer markets. The disruptions in production and trade caused by the war have pushed international prices in these markets to new all-time highs in recent months.
The most recent World Bank Food Security Update (April 7, 2022) highlighted that since January 2021 the agricultural price index is up 29 percent, the cereals price index 11 percent, and the export price index 64 percent.
Wheat prices retreated somewhat from the peak reached on March 7, 2022, but they are still nearly 36 percent higher than in early February 2022, before the war in Ukraine, and 60 percent higher since January 2021. Maize prices are about 20 percent above the early February level and 48 percent higher than in January 2021, while rice prices have continued to remain remarkably stable. Meanwhile, fertilizer prices surged in March 2022, up nearly 20 percent since January and almost 3 times higher compared to a year ago, whereas energy prices had surged 63.4 percent year on year.

7 Winkler, Hernan; Gonzalez, Alvaro. 2019. “Jordan Jobs Diagnostic.” Jobs Series; No. 18. World Bank, Washington, DC.
8 In 2019, FDI inflows fell to the lowest point over the past two decades, accounting for only 1.5 percent of GDP.
9 International freight charges peaked around US$11,109 in September 2021 from US$1,500 pre-pandemic. These currently stand around US$ 9,430 (source: Bloomberg).
10 Jordan’s fiscal adjustment remains supported by the IMF. The Third Review of the IMF EFF program was completed on December 20, 2021. This allowed IMF to disperse almost US$335 million (or cumulatively US$1.23 billion) under the program). According to the IMF, sound policies have helped maintain macroeconomic stability, while the government remains on track to narrow its fiscal deficit, and reserves remain at a comfortable level.

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Input:
**The World Bank**
Emergency Food Security Project (P178936)

**6.** **Jordan’s fragility to external shocks and internal factors can exacerbate food security in the country.**
Jordan’s structural impediments in a context of needs for regional stability and response to imminent global risk factors arising from the war in Ukraine represent key challenges for immediate recovery. Jordan is positioned at the epicenter of one of the most volatile regions in the world. The government has consistently preserved its stability, drawing from its unique geopolitical positioning and socio-political resilience. The country has been highly exposed to exogenous shocks, particularly the spillovers from regional conflicts, including Syria, Iraq and the West Bank and Gaza, dependency on foreign aid and inflow of capital, and shifts in geopolitical relations, all of which have compounded the country’s existing vulnerabilities. Regional insecurity and any subsequent displacement of refugees into Jordan coupled with the pandemic pose a risk for the food security of the country and stress its food system. Although direct trade links with Ukraine and the Russian Federation are limited, a continuous and accelerated surge in commodity prices (especially those of wheat and barley) and stronger slowdown in global growth represent imminent downside risks to the economy and food security.

**B. Sectoral and Institutional Context**

**7.** **Globally and in the region, Jordan is one of the most import dependent countries for covering its**
**national grains consumption needs.** The country is highly vulnerable to price volatility and supply disruptions in
global markets for basic agricultural commodities. Jordan does not produce significant volumes of basic agricultural commodities domestically. For example, annual domestic wheat and barley production averaged 21,499 tons and 54,234 tons respectively between 2018 and 2020 compared to monthly domestic consumption levels of 90,000 tons of wheat and 80,000 tons of barley [11] . In the period 2018-2020, total annual import volumes of wheat and barley averaged 913,334 tons and 770,068 tons respectively, which amounted to an average annual import bill of US$ 227 million for wheat and US$ 177 million for barley (UN Comtrade, 2022). The Black Sea region is the principal origin for the bulk of Jordan’s grain imports (given lower freight costs compared to other origins), with the region representing 98 percent of Jordanian wheat imports and 78 percent of barley imports. Yet the supply shock caused by the war in Ukraine has changed the geopolitics and economics of grain trade where small buyers, like Jordan, are competing in a tight market with large countries and fewer suppliers, that are geographically farther from the region, and where not only price, but also grain quality play an important role in the purchasing decisions of the GOJ, further reducing market options for the country. This could further exacerbate the ability of the GOJ to secure the required grain purchases on time to meet domestic consumption levels at socially acceptable prices.

**8.** **Jordan’s vulnerability to shocks in global commodity markets is further compounded by the**
**demographic pressures facing the country** . In addition to the structural challenges of sluggish growth, growing
debt, high unemployment, declining FDI and trade disruptions due to regional conflicts, Jordan is confronted with growing demographic, climate and environmental pressures. Between 2000 and 2020 the Jordanian population (excluding refugees) grew at rates between 1.37 and 5.00 percent. When adding the influx of 1.3 million refugees from Syria into Jordan since the start of the civil war, Jordan’s effective population growth in 2020 amounted to 14 percent.

**9.** **Moreover, climate change is significantly reducing the opportunities to respond to growing domestic**
**consumption and improve resilience to external shocks through increased domestic production of grains** .
Climate change poses a serious challenge to the Jordanian agriculture sector. Not only is Jordan endowed with limited natural resources (Jordan is the second most water scarce country in the world with only 97 cubic meters 11 As a result, Jordan is entirely dependent on global markets to meet domestic consumption needs for basic commodities such as cereals (95 percent overall and more than 95 percent for wheat and barley), vegetable oil (79 percent), rice (100 percent) and sugar (100 percent).

Page 8 of 54

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Input:
**The World Bank**
Emergency Food Security Project (P178936) of water available per capita per year – well below the absolute water scarcity threshold of 500 cubic meters per capita per year), but those resources are increasingly vulnerable to climate-related hazards (Jordan ranks 72 out of 182 countries in the ND-GAIN index for climate vulnerability in 2019), including droughts [12], extreme temperature, storms, landslides and flash floods [13] . These changes are likely to have negative effects on crop production as they will decrease the availability of water for irrigation, diminishing the suitability of key crops and increase the vulnerability of smallholder farmers who are already extremely vulnerable to the impacts of climate change due to their low-incomes, poor access to technical capacities and lack of technology to increase productivity under extreme weather conditions [14] . In the livestock sub-sector, rising drought risks reduce the carrying capacity of rangelands and increase the dependency on grains for fodder, thereby contributing to import dependency and vulnerability to external price shocks. Finally, adaptation options to reduce vulnerability along grain import supply chains and the grain import system and physical grain storage will need to be pursued to reflect increasingly hot and dry conditions, as well as heavy precipitation events.

**10.** **High and volatile food prices due to shocks in global commodity markets disproportionately impact**
**poor and vulnerable households in Jordan.** In February 2022, annual food price inflation trended at 2.7 percent

- the highest rate recorded over the past 12 months. Growing inflationary pressures as a result of higher food
prices pose a significant threat to vulnerable households. Importantly, short-term demand for wheat products, which account for the largest share in the food basket, is relatively inelastic in Jordan as in the Arab world in general (World Bank, 2012). Many Jordanian households hover around the national poverty line making poverty numbers very sensitive to even small increases in the cost of living (Figure 1). [15] Moreover, households are affected by higher food prices in different ways, with women, including female-headed households resorting to harmful coping strategies, such as reducing their own nutrition consumption to feed members of their family, or taking on risky jobs to acquire food as a result of having limited access to assets and markets, and fewer pathways out of the crisis as compared to their male counterparts (Oxfam, 2019). Furthermore, poor and near-poor households in Jordan tend to spend a larger share of their income on food. Food purchases account for over one-third of poor and near poor Jordanian household budgets and a quarter among the richest 20 percent of the population (Figure 2). Similarly, food purchases account for over one-third of refugee household budgets. Within Jordanians’ food basket basic agricultural commodities account for most of the caloric intake, in particular wheat products (28 percent), sugar (14 percent), rice (8 percent), sunflower seed oil (7 percent) and soybean oil (4 percent) (Department of Statistics of Jordan, 2022).

12 In 2021, Jordan experienced one of the most severe droughts in its history.
_13_ [Jordan - Vulnerability | Climate Change Knowledge Portal (worldbank.org)](https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/jordan/vulnerability#:~:text=Climate%2Drelated%20hazards%20in%20Jordan,include%20periodic%20earthquakes%20and%20epidemics.)
14 IPCC projections for the future indicate that by 2030 temperatures are projected to increase by 1–2oC and that there will be a significant
increase in the number of crop heat stress days throughout Jordan. Climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase
5 (CMIP5) ensemble project a decline in future precipitation rates of 6 percent, 11.5 percent, and 19 percent by 2030, 2050, and 2070,
respectively (RCP 8.5). The whole country is expected to experience a decrease in precipitation. The northern region and King’s Highway
are projected to experience the largest precipitation declines by 2030: 12.5 percent and 10.4 percent respectively. Rainfall decreases in the
Eastern and Southern desert are projected to be 9.4 percent and 3.1 percent, respectively. Jordan’s Eastern and Southern Desert regions,
which are primarily rangelands, are likely to experience more warming than the Northern region and the King’s Highway, which currently
rely mostly on rainfed and irrigated agriculture.
15 World Bank analysis indicates that if food prices were to increase by 10 percent in Jordan (a smaller increase than in the 2007-2008 food
price crises), poverty would increase by an additional 1.3 percentage points and the poverty gap would rise by half a percentage point,
while a 20 percent increase in food prices would increase the poverty rate from 15.7 percent to 19.4 percent (43,000 new poor families).

Page 9 of 54

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Input:
**The World Bank**
Emergency Food Security Project (P178936)

**Figure 1: Jordan 2017-18 household per capita consumption**
**distribution relative to the national poverty line**

**Figure 2: Share of food expenditure in total expenditure p.c. (%)**

Source: 2017-18 HEIS and World Bank calculations. Source: World Bank

**11.** **Existing food insecurity levels are particularly high among Jordan’s refugee population.** According to the
most recent mobile Vulnerability Assessment and Mapping (mVAM) [16] completed by the World Food Program (WFP) in Jordan, 7 percent of Jordanian households (representing 535,559 individuals) were found to be food insecure as of February 2021 and another 51 percent of households (representing 3,843,701 individuals) were vulnerable to food insecurity, meaning that they were very likely to experience an acute decline in food access or consumption levels below minimum survival needs. WFP’s mVAM also found that food insecurity levels among Jordan’s refugee community (which are not covered by Jordan’s social security net system) are significantly higher than those registered at the level of Jordanian households. Of the more than 750,000 refugees [17] registered in Jordan (89 percent of whom came from Syria), an estimated 17 percent live in the Za’atari and Azraq refugee camps, while the remaining 83 percent are mostly in Jordan’s urban areas. Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, food security has been a key concern for refugees in both camps and in host communities mainly due to the loss of income from temporary and informal labor activities. More than 80 percent of labor activities performed by non-Jordanians are estimated to take place in the informal economy versus 40 percent for Jordanian citizens (MOSD, 2019). February 2021 mVAM data showed that 23.3 percent of refugee households in host communities are food insecure (over 154,777 individuals), while another 63.7 percent of refugee households (equivalent to approximately 423,344 individuals) are vulnerable to food insecurity.

**12.** **Ensuring food security and social stability are at the core of the urgent need to ensure availability of**
**and access to staple food** . Bread is an essential part of the diet in Jordan and represents the main caloric source
for the poorest Jordanians and the many refugees in the country. Similarly, barley import dependent livestock herding is the mainstay of the rural economy and the livelihoods of about 200,000 people in traditional nomadic and semi-nomadic Bedouin tribal communities. While trade in basic food commodities (such as sugar, rice, cooking oil, milk powder) is managed mainly by the private sector in Jordan, the GOJ maintains full control of grain reserves by directly managing the purchase, import, storage and domestic sales of wheat and barley. In 2021, the GOJ discontinued the bread subsidy and, as a response to the COVID-19 outbreak, it fixed the domestic price of bread to ensure its affordability (at 0.32 JOD per kilogram) for the entire population of Jordan. This intervention model (in combination with the effective appreciation of the Jordanian dinar) has helped control inflationary pressures.
However, maintaining this status quo in a context of all time high international grain prices is costly, also coinciding with Bond maturity obligations of the GOJ, further reducing the availability of financial resources at a critical time.

**13.** **Public procurement of strategic agricultural commodities is at the core of Jordan’s food security strategy**
**as rising food prices pose a significant threat to social stability** . Historically, Jordan has played a key role as an

_16_ [WFP | Jordan: Mobile Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping Dashboard | As of June 2021 (arcgis.com)](https://unwfp.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=7210a3ee33b14c5b9a989590345cb49a)
_17_ _As of July 2021_

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mobile Vulnerability Assessment and Mapping

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Input:
## Secondary Data Review
# GENDER-BASED VIOLENCE – Mozambique: Cyclone Idai and Floods

APRIL 2019

### CRISIS OVERVIEW

Tropical Cyclone Idai made landfall on 14 March, in Beira city (Sofala province), Central Mozambique. As of 15 April, over 600 people are confirmed to have died in the cyclone and subsequent events. A total 1.5 million people are affected, and over 140,000 people are displaced in more than 120 accommodation centers, public buildings and schools in the affected provinces. Sofala province has the highest number of displaced
[population, followed by Manica province (INGC, 4/2019).](https://cycloneidai.onalabs.org/)

### CRISIS IMPACT

_Source: OCHA_ _SitRep No.6 (as of_ _13 April 2019)_

#### KEY TAKEAWAYS

This document consolidates information of the pre-crisis context and vulnerability of women and girls in Mozambique, and reviews all main post-disaster assessment results, field reports and other sources available on the disaster impact, needs and risks of the vulnerable groups.

**Key Priorities**

- Past lessons as well as assessment reports both highlight that women and girls and
their families have been adopting negative mechanisms to cope with basic needs and economic hardship, including being exposed to sexual exploitation, sex work, early and forced marriage. Reviving livelihood and income generating activities are key to mitigate GBV risks.

- The displaced population living in sites are under stressed conditions, overcrowding
and lack of wash facilities increase the risk of GBV. With sporadic ongoing relocation, women and girls are exposed to less safe and dignified environment.

- Living conditions are more severe and needs are largely unfulfilled in the
communities outside the camps, especially in areas that are hard to reach. In these communities, a lack of basic needs including food and shelter has been reported, which increases risks of vulnerable population.

- The number of female-headed households as well as widowed women has
increased in the aftermath of the disaster. Accompanied by a high number of pregnant women who are estimated to give birth, it is critical to ensure access to functional Sexual and Reproductive Health services and social care.

- Community-based referral and psychosocial support by local partners have been
operational prior to the cyclone. As they act as the main first contacts for vulnerable groups in the communities, more resources and capacity building on GBV in emergencies are needed to scale up the existing community-based services.

**Key Vulnerable Groups:**

Female-headed households; single women, adolescents 1

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## Secondary Data Review
# GENDER-BASED VIOLENCE – Mozambique: Cyclone Idai and Floods

APRIL 2019

### Operating Environment - Contextual Review LEGAL SYSTEM AND JUSTICE

Since independence in 1975, Mozambique has put in efforts to make strides in gender equality. Systems have been put in place, and achievements have been made, for example in political representation. Since 1994 the ruling party implemented a quota on the representation of women in the government. This has ensured that women have approximately one third of seats in the National Assembly. However, a lot of progress still needs to happen to reach gender equality – not just in systems and institutions, but
[also at a community level (Tvedten 2008).](https://www.cmi.no/publications/file/3326-)

**Rule of law:** After the civil war (1984–1992), which had a large impact on the Central
[Provinces, turnover in the government has been democratic (Tvedten 2008).](https://www.cmi.no/publications/file/3326-)

**Women’s rights:**

- The 2004 constitution upholds the principle of gender equality and prohibits
discrimination based on sex.

- Mozambique has ratified CEDAW, as well as the Protocol to the African Charter
on Human and Peoples’ Rights on the Rights of Women in Africa [(Government of](http://evaw-global-database.unwomen.org/-/media/files/un%20women/vaw/full%20text/africa/mozambique%20%20nap%20to%20combat%20and%20prevent%20vaw%2020082012.pdf?vs=5313)
[Mozambique 2012).](http://evaw-global-database.unwomen.org/-/media/files/un%20women/vaw/full%20text/africa/mozambique%20%20nap%20to%20combat%20and%20prevent%20vaw%2020082012.pdf?vs=5313)

- Polygamy has been prohibited by the Family Law (2004), yet is commonly
practiced. In effect, polygamous unions are not legally recognized, but there are no legal restrictions against the practice itself (CARE [29/03/2019).](https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/Regional-RGA-Cyclone-Idai-29032019.pdf)

- The Act on Domestic Violence Perpetrated Against Women was passed in 2009,
criminalizing domestic violence including physical abuse, sexual abuse, emotional and psychological abuse, stalking, harassment, intimidation, damage
[to property, and other controlling or abusive behavior (UNWOMEN 2009).](http://evaw-global-database.unwomen.org/fr/countries/africa/mozambique/2009/law-on-domestic-violence-perpetrated-against-women--2009-)

- The Multisectoral Mechanism for Integrated Assistance to Women Victims of
Violence (2012) outlines the roles of the Ministry of Health, Ministry of Justice, Ministry of Interior and the Ministry of Gender, Children, and Social Action [(USAID](https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Floriza_Gennari/publication/293491456_Lessons_from_the_Gender-Based_Violence_Initiative_in_Mozambique/links/56b9311908ae3b658a88c87e/Lessons-from-the-Gender-Based-Violence-Initiative-in-Mozambique.pdf) 2016).

- The Land Laws of 1997 specifies that, although land belongs to the state, legal
measures can help communities and individuals (men and women) to obtain land without requiring written proof of use. However, in reality the gender equality in land ownership is not reflected as patriarchal cultures still favor land
[ownership for men (SIDA 2006).](https://www.sida.se/contentassets/80caaf7d1aaf48738b7b70386574b59e/towards-gender-equality-in-mozambique_693.pdf)

**Access to justice:** Although the Mozambican government has put into place efforts to
combat violence against women, women have difficulty accessing courts for various reasons (details in below content “GBV PROTECTION NEEDS”). Instances of GBV including rape, are more often settled through informal local/community courts, or privately
[through financial renumeration (Slegh 2010;](http://medanthrotheory.org/site/assets/files/3123/slegh.pdf) [US Department of State 2017).](https://www.state.gov/documents/organization/277271.pdf)

#### SOCIODEMOGRAPHIC ENVIRONMENT

**Female-headed households:** As of 2015 approximately 36% of households in
[Mozambique are female-headed (DHS 2015).](https://dhsprogram.com/pubs/pdf/AIS12/AIS12.pdf)

**Economy:** In 2008, a study found that approximately 79% of women were economically
active. Women are largely responsible for the household. This may also be included into the high percentage for economic activity – although returns on this are low. Furthermore, employed women mostly work in the agricultural sector (89%), a sector in which they form a large share of unskilled labor (59%). This shows that, though women may take up a large part of economic activity, they may not take home a large amount of money.
Women active in agriculture work an estimated average of 14 hours per day, which also
[leaves them little time for partaking in public participation or education (Tvedten 2008; SIDA](https://www.cmi.no/publications/file/3326-) 2006).

When employed, women are often performing unskilled jobs, which are low-paid. In addition, in 2008 only around 4% of women were employed in the government, public, or private sector. These jobs entail a fixed monthly salary with predictability and more
[certainty (Tvedten 2008).](https://www.cmi.no/publications/file/3326-)

**Education:** Literacy rates in Mozambique stand at 70.5% for the population aged 15–
24. When only looking at the population over 15, the literacy rate stands at only 56%.
Women are significantly less literate than their male counterparts. High discrepancies in literacy rates among men and women can point to inequality, where girls tend to be the first who are denied access to education, or taken out of school as their education is not prioritized.

2

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Input:
## Secondary Data Review
# GENDER-BASED VIOLENCE – Mozambique: Cyclone Idai and Floods

APRIL 2019 LITERACY RATE (%) TOTAL MALE FEMALE
**15–24 years** 70.5 79.1 62.3
**15 years and older** 56.0 70.8 43.1
**65 years and older** 26.0 46.3 8.8
UNCESCO 2015 The DHS data from Mozambique further shows that improving access to education for girls, particularly following the completion of primary school, can be an important determinant of the use of health facilities (or at least correlates with facility use). Higher levels of education for mothers is associated with declining under-five mortality rates, i.e.
the higher the education level of the mother, the lower the mortality levels in under-five[year-olds (ODI, 6/2014).](https://www.odi.org/sites/odi.org.uk/files/odi-assets/publications-opinion-files/9073.pdf)

#### COMMUNITY ENVIRONMENT

Despite changes at an institutional level, Mozambique remains a highly patriarchal society where men dominate power positions in communities and the household.

**GBV perception:** While more updated data is not available, in 2009 an estimated 70%
of perpetrators of GBV against their partners never faced charges. The reasons for this included that the survivor has to deal with the case alone or through the family (47%), the act was not deemed serious (15%), the act was considered a private issue (9%), or the survivor feared retaliation and reprisal (11%) [(UNIFEM 2009).](https://www.un.org/ruleoflaw/files/violence_against_women_mozambique%5b1%5d.pdf) This indicates that in Mozambique, GBV is being normalized, and a GBV case is considered a family or private affair without much institutional and systematic support. However, the Multisectoral Mechanism for Integrated Assistance to Women Victims of Violence was established in 2012 and strives to provide accessible and integrated services for vulnerable people and more systematic fighting against GBV.

In addition, an anthropological study found that generally in Mozambique, a ‘good woman’ submits to her husband, other male relatives, and the husband’s family. Male dominance in the household is seen as a given, and maltreatment of women is often seen as a result of their own behavior. These socio-cultural explanations about women’s role
[in society justify acts of gender-based violence as natural and private matters (Slegh 2009).](http://medanthrotheory.org/site/assets/files/3123/slegh.pdf)

**Gender roles:** Generally, men are still seen as the power-holders and the culture in
Mozambique is patriarchal and male-dominated. This may be rooted in historical influences when political powerholders were men in charge of chieftainships. On top, Central Mozambique knew a more patrilineal system, meaning a woman belongs to the husband’s family – which has been symbolized through dowry ( _lobolo)_ . Though at times women can be in influential positions (e.g. in clans) – these are usually not formalized
[positions of power (Tvedten 2008).](https://www.cmi.no/publications/file/3326-) _Division of labor:_ Generally, men and boys are responsible for working outside the home while women and girls take care of domestic issues. These include taking care of children and older people, as well as cooking, fetching water, and cleaning [(CARE 29/03/2019).](https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/Regional-RGA-Cyclone-Idai-29032019.pdf) Reduced accessibility and availability of water and other household items are likely to put women and girls more at risk when performing domestic tasks.

_Household decision-making:_ Despite women’s large participation in the household, their
[decision-making is described as limited (FHI 360 2015). This is backed up by data from the](https://www.fhi360.org/sites/default/files/media/documents/resource-spt-cap-mozambique-gbv-integration.pdf) Demographic Health Survey [(2015), which shows that men generally tend to take the](https://dhsprogram.com/pubs/pdf/AIS12/AIS12.pdf) decisions in the household regarding health expenditures and groceries. In Sofala, over 80% of men solely took the decisions in these areas.

_Political participation_ : Mozambique has the 14th highest level of women’s participation in
[parliament in the world (World Bank).](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SG.GEN.PARL.ZS?view=chart)

**Traditional marriage practices:** Dowry, or _lobolo_ still plays a large role in the central
[provinces including Sofala (Tvedten 2008). Though polygamy is not legalized in the Family](https://www.cmi.no/publications/file/3326-) Law (2004), it is still practiced. In these cases, the husband is only legally married to the first wife, but has multiple relationships outside the marriage. Polygyny is often recommended when the first wife is infertile – but is generally common in the patrilineal
[cultures (Arnaldo 2003). In the same Family Law, the age for marriage is set at 18.](http://www.bioline.org.br/pdf?ep04008)

**Harmful practices:** In some instances, widowhood can be seen as needing ‘purification’.
This purification practice is common among the Sena ethnic group in Sofala. A woman, upon the death of her husband, needs to be purified by having sex with his male relative three times a day for a week. This practice called _pita-kufa_ (or _khupita-_ khufa) increases the risk of HIV and may cause unwanted pregnancy [(IRIN 2008; Vera Cruz 2018).](http://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/fr/node/243963) 3

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Input:
## Secondary Data Review
# GENDER-BASED VIOLENCE – Mozambique: Cyclone Idai and Floods

APRIL 2019

#### Crisis Impact and Pre-Crisis Baseline BASIC NEEDS

GBV does not happen in a silo and is never a standalone incident. Disasters, conflicts, pre-crisis vulnerabilities, stressed living conditions, and a lack of resources are all exacerbating factors for the manifestation of GBV and related negative coping mechanisms. Reduced availability and accessibility of basic services (source of income; health facilities, food, market etc.) as a result of the cyclone and floods increase the vulnerabilities of women and girls.

**Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene:** According to the Demographic Health Survey [(2015),](https://dhsprogram.com/pubs/pdf/AIS12/AIS12.pdf)
approximately 23.7% of people in Sofala did not have access to an improved water source. A further 23.1% used a hand pump. In previous years, during periods of drought, it was noted that during the water collection activities, girls faced increased risk of
[confrontations with wild animals and GBV (CARE, 2016).](https://www.humanitarianresponse.info/en/operations/southern-eastern-africa/document/ares-rapid-gender-analysis-commitment-addressing-gender) _Water_
[Over 50% of displacement sites assessed have water sources on site (DTM R2, 4/2019). As](https://displacement.iom.int/reports/moçambique-—-ciclone-tropical-idai-inquérito-dos-locais-de-deslocamento-beira-dondo-e) women and girls are responsible for fetching water, they are exposed to more GBV risks when looking for alternative water sources. The post-disaster multi-sectoral assessment (MRA) in six affected districts further noted that the availability of potable/drinking water has decreased significantly, particularly in Nhamatanda (MRA, 4/2019).

_Sanitation and hygiene_ Wash conditions are stretched and overcrowding is observed in sites in Beira. Wash facilities cannot be installed or completed and prepared in time with sporadic and rapid ongoing relocations (Protection cluster, 4/2019). In 20% of the sites assessed in DTM it is reported that nobody has access to bathing and shower facilities. Less than half of sites have gender-segregated latrines and bathing facilities [(DTM R2, 4/2019).](https://displacement.iom.int/reports/moçambique-—-ciclone-tropical-idai-inquérito-dos-locais-de-deslocamento-beira-dondo-e) At new accommodation sites women are reported to be showering inside the latrines (Protection cluster, 4/2019). Recent research also shows that over 40% of women do not use latrines
[provided (CARE, 3/2019).](https://www.humanitarianresponse.info/en/operations/southern-eastern-africa/document/ares-rapid-gender-analysis-commitment-addressing-gender) The MRA further noted that almost all assessed communities in Buzi, Gondola, Nhamatanda and Sussundenga districts are facing a major deterioration in the quality of sanitation facilities. Whereas previously all communities mostly used household latrines, they now have to resort to open defecation. It is reported that privacy for washing and defecating is an issue for women and girls, especially in Dondo and Nhamatanda (MRA, 4/2019).

The lack of safe and quality hygiene and sanitation facilities, latrines and bathing facilities that are not safely lit all lead to worsened hygiene condition and higher the risk to GBV. In addition, women and girls who cannot access safe facilities might face additional burdens as they may aim to limit their use of facilities, which can lead to reduced food and water intake.

**Health:** According to the existing referral mechanism in place by the Ministry of Gender,
Children and Social Action (MGCAS), there are three entry points of services for any vulnerable groups and potential GBV survivors: health facilities, social action and the police. Health facilities with trained staff and post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) kits for rape survivors to perform clinical management of rape (CMR), and specialized psychosocial intervention are only available at district or provincial hospital.

As social workers can be the first point of entry for many GBV survivors, they need to be trained to deliver psychosocial support. Pre-crisis reports further point out that specialized knowledge on treating survivors of GBV is often not sufficient in the health facilities: women who seek help after physical violence are not always properly consulted prior to being sent back home [(Slegh 2010).](http://medanthrotheory.org/site/assets/files/3123/slegh.pdf) Therefore, there is also a need to train personnel in health facilities.

Cyclone and floods have caused major damage to at least 93 health centers (Health cluster, 4/2019). More complete assessment on health facilities are ongoing, however field visits suggested that district level hospitals in Nhamatanda, Dondo, Buzi and Beira districts are functional, despite some structural damages. However information on the overall availability of stocks and supplies of PEP kits remains a gap [(HeRAM, 2019).](http://www.herams.org/) The administration of PEP within 72 hours of a reported rape case is vital to save lives of survivors, especially considering the high prevalence rate of HIV in the population.
Preliminary health facility assessments have showed that around 55% of assessed health facilities in Sofala province do not have PEP kits available (FHI360, preliminary data on health facility assessments, 4/2019).

In the majority of displacement sites people reportedly have no problem accessing health facilities, and in more than 70% it is reported that health facilities have female staff.
80% key informants reported that women are seeing health professionals during pregnancy [(DTM R2, 4/2019). The MRA findings in six districts show that in more than half of](https://displacement.iom.int/reports/moçambique-—-ciclone-tropical-idai-inquérito-dos-locais-de-deslocamento-beira-dondo-e) communities women have access to sexual and reproductive health care. In Gondola and Sussendenga districts, the nearest health facilities in most locations are reportedly very 4

FHI360, preliminary data on health facility assessments

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