Input: The World Bank Economic Review 695 BASIX conducts marketing visits through village meetings and door-to-door visits. The first step is to hold a group meeting in the village, where potential customers are shown a marketing video that includes details about rainfall insurance (and other BASIX products). It then speaks with visitors and answers questions. The BASIX team then makes a follow-up visit where it goes door to door, trying to sell BASIX products, including rainfall insurance. Data The data set consists of the entire set of BASIX’s purchasers of rainfall index insurance from 2005 through 2007, which covers six states. [3] Though it ran small pilots in 2003 and 2004, BASIX began to mass-market rainfall insurance starting in 2005. The data contain limited personal information about each customer, including their location, how many policies they purchased, and what payouts they received during that season. The BASIX data covers 42 weather stations and includes a total of 19,882 customers during the period 2005–2007. [4] After numerous rainfall shocks in 2006, BASIX realized that many customers who had purchased only a small amount of insurance were disappointed that they received small payouts. In response, BASIX instituted a rule in 2007 that required

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Input: highly-developed. The resulting composite indicator for South Africa (8.49) is about 2.5 times Chad’s indicator value (3.44). Kenya has about the same composite indicator value as South Africa (8.35), but the indicator components are quite different. Kenya’s environmental indicator (2.39) is somewhat more than half of South Africa’s (4.24), but Kenya’s institutional problem indicator (3.5) is about 1.8 times South Africa’s. As a result, the products of the two indicators are nearly the same for the two countries. Of the four countries, Nigeria has by far the largest composite indicator value (25.29) because of the size of its overall environmental indicator (8.43). the equal-weighted index. Our results show that correlations among the indicators remain at .95 or higher, over a broad range of plausible definitions. 7

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Input: that net receipts from these schemes were, if anything, lower to for households inside the prefecture boundary than outside. Treatment and control areas may already have followed different growth trajectories before reforms. The standard way to check whether may have been the case is to test for parallel trends. [13] As discussed in detail below, we cannot reject the hypothesis of no significant differences in pre-reform trends between households inside and outside the border for overall household welfare and the share of income derived from agriculture non-farm employment, migration, and local wages and, with one exception, individuals’ time use, and agricultural yields and profits. Some significant pre-reform trends exist, however, with respect to use of agricultural inputs and crop choice. They point towards marked declines in agricultural assets ( 18% in Chengdu vs. +35% in villages outside the prefecture boundary) and use of inputs (-38% vs. -16%). Output shares of wheat and other grains increased and those of oil crops decreased in Chengdu while the opposite was true for households in neighboring counties. Also, key interventions in place during the period of concern are a new rural pension scheme (Lei _et al._ 2013), cooperative medical scheme (Wagstaff _et al._ 2009),

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Input: price increasing profitability and extending life length. The expansion across artisanal small-, medium-, and large-scale mining contributed to an increase in total production that rose from 541,147 oz in 1990 to 3,119,823 oz in 2009 according official Ghana statistics (Bloch and Owusu, 2012). This production increase led to an increased sector contribution to GDP from 4,83% (1990) to 5,78% (2009), alongside export value of US$304m in 1990, US$702m in 2000, and US$2246 m in 2008, reaching 43% of national exports in 2008. Mining related foreign direct investment (FDI) also rose from US$165m to US$762m between 1995 and 2009. Mining was the dominating sector with between 48% and 94% of mining FDI to total FDI from 1995 to 2007, until the country saw an incredible increase in non-mining foreign direct investment (Bloch and Owusu, 2012), following the discovery of oil in 2007. 4

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Input: counterfactual, and does not allow quantification of benefits in a way that can be compared to the cost of the intervention. To provide these and, in doing so, draw out the implications of the experiment in a more systematic manner, more systematic survey evidence is needed. **2.3 Analytical approach and data sources** We use panel data from the National Bureau of Statistics’ regular household survey in 7 counties adjacent to the border of Chengdu prefecture (3 counties inside and 4 outside the boundary), [9] as illustrated in figure 1 to assess household-level effects of Chengdu’s property rights reform on household welfare, time use, inputs into and productivity of agricultural production. A modified regression discontinuity design whereby reform effects are identified by comparing between counties located just inside the prefecture border who were affected by the reform and otherwise comparable ones just outside the border who were not is applied. Ideally, we would have liked a sample to include data from the same households before and after the reform. The fact that NBS changed its panel of households in 2011 makes this impossible. The ability to use two panel data sets, each with multiple observations per household before and after the

National Bureau of Statistics’ regular household survey

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Input: Policy Research Working Paper 7388 ### **Abstract** As part of a national experiment in 2008, Chengdu pre fecture implemented ambitious property rights reforms, including complete registration of all land together with measures to ease transferability and eliminate migration restrictions. A triple difference approach using the Statistics Bureau’s regular household panel suggests that the reforms increased consumption and income, especially for less wealthy and less educated households, with estimated benefits well above the cost of implementation. Local labor supply increased, with the young shifting toward agriculture and the old toward off-farm employment. Agricultural yields, intensity of input use, and diversity of output also increased. Improving property rights in peri-urban China appears to have increased investment and diversification. This paper is a product of the Agriculture and Rural Development Team, Development Research Group. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://econ.worldbank.org. The authors may be contacted at kdeininger@worldbank.org. _The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development_

Statistics Bureau’s regular household panel

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Input: salinization, and pesticide exposure, which risk human and animal health. 77. **The Social risk is rated as Substantial.** Component 1 activities, such as Cash for Nutrition, Productive Inclusion, strengthening the social registry, and distributing community resilience kits, may present risks of elite capture, social conflict, and excluding vulnerable individuals like women, young mothers, and persons with disabilities due to inadequate beneficiary targeting. These activities might also increase risks of Sexual Exploitation and Abuse/Sexual Harassment (SEA/SH), corruption, fraud, and theft from households receiving benefits and kits. Additional risks include poor stakeholder engagement, weak grievance management, exclusion from beneficiary lists, payment delays, road safety especially of project workers, and insufficient enforcement and training for Codes of Conduct. 78. **Component 2.1 will finance developing and rehabilitating essential infrastructure in rural communities of Dikhil** **and refugee-hosting areas in Ali Addeh, Holl Holl, and Obock**, aiming to increase access to services like electrification, water and sanitation, renewable energy, health and education facilities, roads, and utilities. Risks related to land acquisition and physical and/or economic displacement are unknown, but activities causing these risks are expected to be ineligible for financing. Some key risks under this component include: SEA/SH from labor/project workers in remote areas; accidents from

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Input: The data for our study come from the 2005/2006 Uganda National Household Survey (UNHS), fieldwork for which was conducted by the Uganda Bureau of Statistics from May 2005 to April 2006. The survey collected information at the community, household, and parcel level for about 7,500 households in 753 EAs including 30 IDP camps. Household level data cover demographics, main economic activities, education, health, assets, income levels and sources, as well as consumption and welfare indicators. The agricultural module provides information on ownership status, crop production, input use and land-related investment at the parcel level, complemented by other forms agricultural income. [13] The 2002 population census was used as a sample frame. Following stratification into urban (30%) and rural (70%) sub samples, enumeration areas (EAs) were chosen with the probability of selection being proportional to size. Based on a listing of households in each of the selected EAs, 10 households per EA were randomly sampled. As table 1 illustrates, 5,530 of the sample households were involved in agricultural activities. Of these, about 31%, or 1,728 with 5,448 parcels, are mixed owner/occupants who operated at least one parcel under full ownership and one under usufruct. This sub-sample forms the basis for our

2005/2006 Uganda National Household Survey

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Input: 2024 CRITICAL FUNDING NEEDS IN EUROPE ###### **Ukraine Situation** As the full-scale war in Ukraine continues unabated, ongoing hostilities are heavily impacting civilians, with **3.7 million people currently internally displaced.** [1] UNHCR and partners are on the frontline providing lifesaving assistance to the newly displaced, including psychosocial support, legal assistance, core-relief items, cash assistance and emergency shelter support and repairs. Where conditions allow, UNHCR is supporting government-led early-recovery efforts including repairs to civilian housing and infrastructure. Heading into yet another winter—and with targeted attacks compromising energy infrastructure in parts of the country—additional funding is critical to help scale up assistance for millions of people to repair their damaged homes, afford electricity and heating costs, and ensure they have access to essential non-food items such as clothing, heaters, thermal kits, as well as cash assistance. Over **6.1 million refugees** from Ukraine have sought safety across Europe, where host countries have generously provided protection, access to services, and inclusion into national systems. However, host governments and communities need support to guarantee access to rights and services, provide dedicated support for the most vulnerable, foster greater inclusion and ensure social cohesion. UNHCR leads the **[Regional Refugee Response Plan](https://data.unhcr.org/en/documents/details/105903)** (RRP) for the Ukraine Situation

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Input: initiatives and ongoing strong political will in Europe remain promising, concrete efforts are needed to support those without legal recognition in the region. **UNHCR’S 2024 FINANCIAL REQUIREMENTS** **FOR STATELESSNESS-RELATED ACTIVITIES** **IN EUROPE** **TOTAL FUNDED (as of 30 Sept 2024)** The breakthrough came early this year when with UNHCR’s support, Sadik’s wife Buqa obtained identity documents. This enabled the registration of their children in birth registries and paved the way for them to apply for identity documents. The new legal status has opened new frontiers for the family, granting them access to healthcare, education, social assistance, and more. © UNHCR/Igor Sljivancanin _* References to Kosovo shall be understood to be in the context of Security Council Resolution 1244 (1999)._ Page 6 **U N H C R R E G I O N A L B U R E A U F O R E U R O P E,** O C T O B E R 2 0 2 4

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Input: **The World Bank** Integrated Community Resilience Project (P506969) PROJECT APPRAISAL DOCUMENT 62. **M&E teams will also be embedded in each of the Project Implementation Unit (PIU), MASS and ADDS** . These teams, in coordination with the community facilitators mobilized at local level, will be responsible for collecting data based on the results framework outlined in the M&E plan. They will transmit data on a regular basis, contributing to the periodic reports. Data to track key performance indicators will be collected from various sources: (a) project-specific surveys and questionnaires; (b) service providers; (c) local governments; (d) consultant reports; and (e) construction progress reports from supervising engineers/ engineering firm. 63. **A comprehensive midterm review of the project’s implementation and results will be conducted by the** **government and the World Bank in 2027, during which the target values will be assessed and any necessary adjustments** **to the project design will be made if needed.** The project will provide targeted support to strengthen M&E capacity within MASS and ADDS. Where feasible, the project will finance consultants to assist MASS and ADDS in developing a detailed M&E and reporting system plan. In addition, consultants will provide on-the-job training for M&E specialists across MASS, ADDS, and

project-specific surveys and questionnaires

project-specific surveys and questionnaires

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Input: _Note:_ Figure 4 shows the main treatment coefficients using the baseline estimation strategy (with DHS individuallevel data; see table 4 for more information), but with different distance cutoffs (10 km, 20 km, 30 km, 40 km, and 50 km). *** p<0.01, **p<0.05, *p<0.1. The results above suggest substantial heterogeneity in outcomes and highlights the importance to explore spatial heterogeneity in the results. In the following sections we explore plausible explanations for these outcomes. **5.4 Difference-in-differences at the district level** The results for female employment in the district-level analysis are shown in table 6. Agricultural work decreases for women in mining districts and manual work increases. Following from this, the likelihood that a woman is working year-round increases. [11] This is similar to what we saw in the individual-level regressions, but the results are now statistically significant. **Table 6 Effects of mine opening at the district level on female employment** (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) not agri- service profess- manual earns works working culture or sales ional work cash all year Active district 0.019 -0.085** 0.034 -0.018** 0.050** -0.021 0.054* (0.027) (0.042) (0.030) (0.008) (0.020) (0.049) (0.032) Observations 19,226 19,226 19,226 19,226 19,226 19,270 15,991 R-squared 0.207 0.327 0.128

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Input: only in conjunction with policies for local procurement. Moreover, some of the mining-related papers have focused on mining in an African context, exploring a range of outcomes, including HIV-transmission and sexual risk taking (Corno and de Walque 2012; Wilson 2012), women’s empowerment (Benshaul-Tolonen 2018), infant mortality (Benshaul-Tolonen, 2019) and labor market outcomes (Kotsadam and Tolonen 2016). Mining is also associated with more economic activity measured by nightlights (Benshaul-Tolonen, 2019; Mamo et al, 2019). Kotsadam and Tolonen (2016) use DHS data from Africa, and find that mine openings cause women to shift from agriculture to service production and that women become more likely to work for cash and year-round as opposed to seasonally. Continuing this analysis, Benshaul Tolonen (2018) explores the links between mining and female empowerment in eight gold producing countries in East and West Africa, including Ghana. Women in gold mining communities have more diversified labor markets opportunities, better access to health care, and are less likely to accept domestic violence. In addition, infant mortality rates decrease with up to 50% in mining communities, from very high initial levels (Benshaul-Tolonen, 2019). In a study that focuses exclusively on Ghana, Aragón and Rud (2013) explore the link between pollution from

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Input: # **MOLDOVA** **OLDER REFUGEES** **BRIEFING NOTE** #### Disability & Age Task Force Refugee Coordination Forum Moldova ### **JANUARY 2025** The **Disability & Age Task Force (DATF)** was established in March 2022 with the support of the Refugee Coordination Forum and under the **Protection Working Group** . The Task Force is composed of humanitarian actors including Government authorities, United Nations Agencies, International and National NGOs, and Organizations of Persons with Disabilities (OPDs), providing specific services for people with disabilities and older people. Its objective is to improve the inclusion of older persons and persons with disabilities in the Ukrainian Refugee Response in the Republic of Moldova, ensuring access to mainstream services as well as guaranteeing the availability of specific services to respond to needs. ## **BACKGROUND** Almost three years have passed since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, forcing millions of Ukrainians to flee the country in search of safety. Moldova in its turn is the country that has received **the largest numbers of** **refugees per capita** of the population of **2,4 million** . As of end December 2024, about 135,000 refugees from Ukraine still remained sheltered in Moldova, with about 76,000 having received asylum, temporary protection, or residence

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Input: the project is counted towards Private Capital Enabling (PCE) and Private Capital Mobilization (PCM). Component 2 on Economic Opportunity & Self-Reliance is verified as both PCE and PCM by supporting a partial credit guarantee (PCG) scheme and matching grants. Sub-component 2(c) support to the Business Development Fund (BDF) PCG scheme is expected to facilitate access to finance for up to 3,000 7 African Development Bank, UNHCR, IGAD & EAC (2024) _Regional Report:_ _Regional Program on Enhancing the Investment Climate for the_ _Economic Empowerment of Refugee, Returnee, and Host/Return Community Women in the East and HoA and Great Lakes Region._ 8 Access to Finance Rwanda (2024) _FinScope 2024 Report_ . The report shows high levels of financial inclusion but low usage of financial services. 9 Non-monetary poverty for the other four host districts is: Nyamagabe (Kigeme camp) 39 percent, Gatsibo (Nyabiheke Camp) 37 percent, Kirehe (Mahama camp) 35 percent and Karongi (Kiziba camp) 34 percent. Data is from the 2022 Census. 10 World Bank (2021) _Climate Risk Profile: Rwanda_ . 11 Alex Hunns et al (2023) “Refugee Settlements are Highly Exposed to Extreme Weather Conditions.” Page 3

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Input: before_ active*mines -0.013 0.025 -0.018* 0.002 0.003 0.075*** -0.028 (0.040) (0.030) (0.009) (0.021) (0.024) (0.028) (0.037) _Note:_ Robust standard errors clustered at the DHS cluster level in parentheses. All regressions control for year and district fixed effects, urban dummy, age, and years of education. *** p<0.01, **p<0.05, *p<0.1. Panel A is limited to bottom 40% in the income distribution, panel B uses urban interaction, and panel C has a count variable for active mines. Panel D1 drops sample between 20 and 40 km away, and D2 drops individual samples two years before mine opening. 151 women are sampled within 20 km from an active mine and in an urban area, and 246 women are sampled within 20 km from a mine regardless of its activity status and in an urban area. **Table A4 Spillovers on employment across districts** Panel A: Using production in the previous period (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) not agri- service profess- manual earns works VARIABLES working culture or sales ional work cash all year gold period 0.004 -0.009** 0.003* 0.004*** -0.002 0.001 0.006 District (0.004) (0.004) (0.002) (0.002) (0.004) (0.003) (0.004) neighbor -0.004 0.005 -0.001 -0.002*** 0.001 0.008* -0.002 gold production (0.004) (0.004) (0.004)

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Input: _Preparing country boundaries and coastlines_ . Countries and regions were identified with data from the World Bank and Exclusive Economic Zones from VLIZ (2011). The coastlines are derived from the SRTM 90 meter digital elevation model (DEM) data files used as a mask for calculating country totals for wetlands. Information on WMP categories for the Coastline was downloaded from the DIVA GIS database. _Building coastal terrain models (DTM)_ . Coastal terrain models derived from the SRTM 90 meter DEM data files were converted into an ESRI ArcGIS data format, and merged to conform to country boundaries in the ArcGIS environment. The analysis includes SRTM tiles, which are 5 x 5 decimal degrees, with a coastline. _Identifying inundation zones:_ Inundation zones were derived from the DTM by setting the value to 1 for SLR equal to 1 m. _Calculating exposure indicators_ . Delineated inundation zones were overlaid with wetlands to calculate exposure of wetlands to a 1 m SLR. Low elevation wetlands are within the Low Elevation Coastal Zone [17] . For the area calculation, grids representing cell areas in square kilometers at different resolutions were created, using the length of a degree of latitude and longitude at the cell center.

DIVA GIS database
SRTM 90 meter DEM data files

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Input: caregiving responsibilities over business activities. This norm restricts their time and engagement in income-generating pursuits and weakens their perceived legitimacy as entrepreneurs, reducing their chances of qualifying for credit. Additionally, women are often expected to rely on family support, especially from spouses, instead of seeking independent financial solutions, distancing them from formal financial institutions and financial products. 31 Baseline failure rates by segment are extremely difficult to assess. As such, the analysis uses conservative assumptions based on extensive discussions with key stakeholders and potential beneficiaries. These assumptions have been tested for sensitivity. 32 CEIC data 33 In the absence of available survey data, the analysis uses proxies for these losses and repair costs from survey data from neighboring Burundi. Based on this data, annual flooding losses amount to ~US$89 per household and repair costs amount to US$25.60 per household. 34 [Gendered Social Norms Diagnostic and their Impact on Women’s Financial Inclusion in Rwanda, 2022, Access to Finance Rwanda](https://afr.rw/downloads/gendered-social-norms-diagnostic-and-their-impact-on-womens-financial-inclusion-in-rwanda/) Page 18

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Input: with the notion that reduction of expropriation threats led to more effective use of agricultural land that created jobs for the less-skilled. **4.2 Impacts on time use** If, for example by promoting land-related investment or productivity-enhancing transfers of land to more efficient uses or users via rental markets, reforms increased productivity of land use and wages or changed certain activities’ relative productivity, we would expect corresponding shifts in overall labor supply or time allocation across sectors. [15] As we have individual level data on labor supply, we can use regressions for all individuals of working age (16-60 or 16-55 for males and females) in the sample to disaggregate estimated reform effects by gender. [16] Doing so suggests that reforms led to an expansion of labor market opportunities and a significant increase in total labor supply by males -with the young (16-40 years old) focusing on agriculture and the old (41-60 years old) on off-farm work and similar shifts, though no change in aggregate labor supply, by females. 14 With a mean cultivated area of 3.45 mu, the estimated benefit per mu in terms of consumption and income is 3,150*0.077/3.45 and 4,928*0.067/3.45, respectively. . 15 As we have information on time

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Input: million people in Sub-Saharan Africa are estimated to live in both extreme poverty (using a $1.9 a day definition) and significant flood risk – thus making them particularly vulnerable to prolonged adverse impacts on livelihoods and well-being. The remainder of this study is structured as follows. Section 2 offers an overview of the existing evidence base, especially on flood risk and poverty. Section 3 summarizes the flood risk, population, and poverty data used in the analysis. Section 4 details the analytical methodology and computational process. Section 5 presents and discusses the results. [1] ##### **2. Existing evidence** Prior to the availability of high-resolution global flood hazard maps, studies relied on historical disaster catalogues to produce rough global exposure estimates. Peduzzi et al. (2009) use a global inventory of recorded flood events from EM-DAT to estimate an exposure indicator at the country level. Yet, the lacking data on the spatial distribution and coincidence of flood risk and population, this approach does not allow a robust estimation of exposure headcounts. Jongman et al. (2012) provide the first global flood exposure analysis that utilizes spatial hazard and population data, albeit at relatively coarse resolution by current standards (10 x 10 kilometers for population

high-resolution global flood hazard maps

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Input: **Calculate sums** - For each flood risk array, calculate the total number of people exposed and add the results to the World Bank global administrative map shapefile ##### **5. Results** For each of the countries analyzed, the results are available as raster files with a 90m spatial resolution and as shapefiles with data aggregated to the admin 1 (sub-national), admin 0 (national), regional, and global levels. In this section, we present visualizations of key findings as maps, using a variety of spatial scales, as well as graphs to highlight pertinent insights. **5.1.** **Global and regional flood exposure** Our estimates show that globally 2.2 billion people are exposed to some level of flood risk; 1.47 billion people, or 19 percent of the world population, are exposed to a significant level of flood risk (i.e. facing inundation depths of over 0.15 meter in the event of a 1-in-100 year flood, or _moderate_ risk or higher in Figure 2). In other words, considering a global population of 7.7 billion (World Bank, 2019), approximately one in five people in the world are exposed to substantial flood risk. 10

World Bank global administrative map shapefile

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Input: maps developed for this study allow for this potential in future work. For the HCMC analysis, the location of the slum areas in the PUMA data set are mainly restricted to the old town. Furthermore, slum areas are often difficult to define (with PUMA only identifying potential slums) and the data we have likely does not capture all slum areas within HCMC. In terms of the hazard, the flood maps for HCMC show flood depth and extent from the river and from sea (when looking at the sea level rise scenario). Pluvial flooding and possible ‘sink’-areas in the city are not taken into account. Moreover, the lowest return period we have flood maps for is not low, compared to what is experienced in the city. Some areas of HCMC are flooded every year. Since this analysis used a flood with a 10-year return period as the flooding scenario with the highest recurrence interval we were not able to capture the relative differences in exposure to these yearly/bi-annual flooding events (and we hypothesize that poor people are relatively more exposed to these types of flooding than the general population). Despite these limitations, the analysis presented at the country and city-level can

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Input: GRZ’s decentralization policy. This includes procurement and FM responsibilities. Given that the bulk of technical activities are at the district level, adherence with the ESF will rest with the SPMU. The staffing profile of the SPMU will include (a) project manager, (b) environmental specialist, (c) social specialist, (d) civil engineer, (e) agribusiness specialist, (f) project accountant, (g) procurement specialist, (h) admin assistant, and (i) driver. The TOR and eligibility criteria for the above staff will be detailed in the PIM. Detailed institutional and implementation arrangements are provided at annex 1. **B. Results Monitoring and Evaluation Arrangements** 52. **The primary responsibility for overall project M&E will lie with the national PMU at the MoHAIS.** The PMU will have M&E capacity to support the establishment of a data platform to track project implementation across different Page 23

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Input: **The World Bank** Costa Rica Results in Education (CORE) (P181174) 9. MEP/PIU should retain all records contracts, invoices, bills, receipts, and other documents) of expenditures related to the Project until at least either one year after the Bank has accepted the audited financial statements covering the period during which the last withdrawal from the loan account was made or two years after the closing date, whichever is later. MEP will give the Bank access to these records to examine them. 10. **FM Supervision** . Project supervision will review the implementation of FM arrangements and performance, identify corrective actions as necessary, and monitor fiduciary risks. Supervision missions will take place on an annual basis and will include desk review of project IFRs and audit reports, following-up on any issues raised by auditors, as appropriate; participation in project supervisions at least once a year, to look into the operation of the control systems and arrangements described in this assessment; and updating the FM rating in the Financial Management Implementation Support and Supervision Report, as needed. In addition, during the first year of execution, the Project will be closely monitored (biannually) to verify that the FM arrangements are working as intended and to

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Input: to build resilience in districts experiencing large refugee inflows. A pilot to reduce gender-based violence (GBV) and violence against children (VAC) also contributed to social cohesion. A 2022 World Bank study on forced displacement reinforced the value of projects such as DRDIP, concluding that ‘multi-sectoral development investments directed to refugees and host communities can improve welfare, mitigate the negative effects of displacement, generate positive externalities for host communities, and promote social cohesion.’ [19] 21. **DRDIP II will be informed by lessons learned from Phase I and from other development responses in Uganda** **and the region over the last seven years.** Based on implementation experience and stakeholder consultations, key lessons include: (a) the CDD approach – particularly community-led procurement – is effective in the Uganda context for planning, community engagement, targeting, monitoring, and implementation; (b) the Labor-Intensive Public Works (LIPW) approach used for integrated natural resource management (INRM) subprojects based on the watershed approach has demonstrated encouraging results for environmental improvement, though with sustainability challenges for commercial assets such as tree plantations; (c) infrastructure investments have been of high quality and have improved basic services, including reported reductions in pupil-classroom, pupil-desk, and pupil-sanitation facility ratios. However, operations and maintenance (O&M) needs

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Input: of the spatial distribution, we also find significant variation within zones. For example (Figure 8c), western coastal Bangladesh, generally a mid-impact zone, also has significant stretches of coast that have very low historical impacts. To summarize, our focal coastline area has witnessed highly-varied long- and short-term distributions of cyclonic storm impacts during the past 140 years. Our database therefore incorporates three major elements that are important for research on expectations formation and adaptation: pronounced long-term impact clustering; highly-varied clustering over 20-year periods; and a pronounced west/east trend. As previously noted, such variation is necessary for using cyclone impacts as effective statistical controls in comparative adaptation studies. We conclude that our panel database can make a significant contribution to household- and community-level studies that also incorporate social, economic, demographic and political variables from the relevant regions of India and Bangladesh. 21

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Input: with partner countries. We accept these overall preferences, and assume that future thematic lending shares will be identical to the lending shares for the period 1998 - 2003. **Table 7.1: Tests of the Cobb-Douglas Allocation Rule:** **Environmental Lending and AAA** (Standard errors in parentheses) Log Log Lending AAA Log Environmental Problem 1.136 1.265 Indicator (EPI) (0.18)** (0.21)** Log OED Success Probability (OSP) 2.602 1.143 (0.73)** (0.87) Constant -9.960 -5.099 (3.09)** (3.67) Observations 139 139 R-squared 0.28 0.21 Adj. R-Squared 0.27 0.20 **F [EPI = OSP = 1]** **2.65** **0.78** **Prob. > F** **0.07** **0.46** significant at 5%; ** significant at 1% _____________________________________________________________ We also use the lending shares as guidelines for AAA, since the Bank’s analytical and advisory activities are supposed to serve its lending program. Table 7.2 presents percent changes associated with movement from actual to optimal lending by sector and region. In Sub-Saharan Africa, for example, the overall gap between actual and optimal environmental lending is small (+5%), but thematic gaps vary from around -40% for climate change and biodiversity to +64% for land. South Asia has a relatively large overall gap (+33%), and thematic gaps ranging from -60% or less for biodiversity and climate change to over

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Input: GoR has progressive laws and policies on forced displacement.** The World Bank, in consultation with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), has confirmed that Rwanda’s refugee protection framework is adequate for the purposes of access to the Window for Host Communities and Refugees (WHR). [5] Rwanda is a signatory to the 1951 Refugee Convention and the Global Compact on Refugees (GCR). The 2014 _Law_ _Relating to Refugees_ complies with international law and entrenches the right to work and freedom of movement. At the policy level, Rwanda’s _Strategic Plan for Refugee Inclusion 2019-2024_ made commitments to: (a) provide all [1 Data is from April 30, 2025. There are also 14,936 asylum-seekers in Rwanda: see https://data.unhcr.org/en/country/rwa](https://data.unhcr.org/en/country/rwa) [2 Loschmann, C., Bilgili, O. & Siegel, M. (2019) “Considering the benefits of hosting refugees: evidence of refugee camps influencing local labour](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s40176-018-0138-2) [market activity and economic welfare in Rwanda,” IZA Journal of Development & Migration, pp. 1-23.](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s40176-018-0138-2) 3 The self-reliance survey is part of the “Enhancing Self-Reliance and Preparedness for Forced Displacement in the Great Lakes Region” activity [(P500793) and draws on the global Refugee Self-Reliance Initiative index (www.refugeeselfreliance.org).](http://www.refugeeselfreliance.org/) 4 Phase I of Jya Mbere was approved on April 30, 2019, and will close

global Refugee Self-Reliance Initiative index

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Input: ship-to-shore radio after 1900, aircraft observation after 1940, and satellite observation after 1960. Measurement error has undoubtedly fallen over the years, but we cannot judge whether earlier technologies imparted any systematic bias to the recording of cyclone occurrences, track locations, wind speeds and storm radii. If historical observations have been unbiased estimates of storm characteristics, then the aggregative estimates in this paper should be also be regarded as unbiased, but with significantly-decreasing variance over the 140-year period. The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 provides a technical discussion of database construction. Section 3 employs the database to investigate trends in the incidence and power of Indian Ocean cyclonic storms from 1877 to 2016. Section 4 focuses on trends in the spatial distribution of cyclone landfalls in Bangladesh, West Bengal and Odisha, while Section 5 broadens the analysis to impact zones around cyclone landfalls. Section 6 summarizes and concludes the paper. **2. Georeferenced Database Construction** We combine data from BMD, IMD and IBTrACS to document all recorded cyclonic storms in the Indian Ocean region from 1877 to 2016. We construct a panel database; the component for each storm includes a unique identification number; year and month of

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Input: have any positive expenditure on these, and we saw earlier that electricity access changes with the mine. This confirms that, among those who spend anything on electricity, they spend more on it in mining communities. **Table 12 Using GLSS: Household income and expenditure** (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) ln ln ln ln household level ln expenditure wages wages wages pc total health hh all women men exp. exp. food housing education energy active*mine 0.520** 0.694*** 0.391 -0.178* -0.126 -0.069 0.316** -0.168 0.297** (0.226) (0.241) (0.238) (0.093) (0.089) (0.095) (0.139) (0.199) (0.119) Observations 6,226 2,914 3,312 7,522 7,522 7,396 7,420 6,541 4,752 R-squared 0.121 0.128 0.118 0.959 0.964 0.963 0.933 0.837 0.950 _controls_ individual Y Y Y hh head Y Y Y Y Y Y hh size Y Y Y Y Y district fe Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y year fe Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y deflated N N N Y Y N N N N mean (ln) 15.30 15.29 15.31 13.04 14.19 13.42 10.88 10.74 9.52 _Note:_ (1) Annual wages and salaries for individuals in all ages (nondeflated). (2) Annual wages and salaries for women in all ages

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Input: **Annexe 1 :** Some examples of ED incidents _(Sources : Protection Monitoring, CNCCAI, INSO)_ - _**20/03/23:**_ _around 8 a.m. the vehicle of a local authority jumped on an improvised_ _explosive device at Bougoum, Torodi-Niamey axis (Tillabery region)_ - _**25/05/23 :**_ _ED in Ngouba at the passage of shepherds. 3 dead and cows killed (Diffa region)_ - _**16/06/23**_ _: EE against a DFS vehicle in Chetima Wango. 7 dead / 4 injured (Diffa region)_ - _**6/06/23 :**_ _an explosive remnant of war (ERW) exploded against 03 children in the village of_ _Agali (department/municipality of Dosso). The victims who were looking for scrap metal_ _probably confused the device with a piece of iron that they hit with a hammer. The explosion_ _caused the death of a child and 02 injured. It should be noted that the CNCCAI Regional Branch,_ _which is supposed to coordinate EDRE activities at the regional level, does not exist in Dosso_ _due to a lack of resources._ - _**4/07/2023 :**_ _around 9 a.m., an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) allegedly exploded at the_ _passage of vehicle of the DFS Niyya operation, who were patrolling on the Torodi-Makalondi_ _axis, not far from the village of Niaktiré (Tillabéry region)._ **Annex 2:**

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Input: **(3)** **(4)** Would have been payout in 2004 −3.843*** −4.592*** −5.045** −3.788* (0.987) (1.039) (2.173) (1.898) Ratio of hypothetical 2004 payout to 2005 Premium 4.365 −0.755 (4.610) (5.543) Payout ratio squared −1.991 −0.279 (1.814) (2.064) Constant 8.001*** 0.651 7.985*** 1.015 (0.714) (6.341) (0.713) (6.494) Weather station constants NO YES NO YES Observations 733 733 733 733 R-squared 0.073 0.094 0.075 0.097 _Notes_ : The dependent variable is the number of buyers in 2005, which was the first year rainfall insurance was offered to our sample. The unit of observation is the village. Would have been Payout in 2004 is a dummy that takes a value of 1 if there would have been a payout in 2004 had the 2005 policy been offered in that year. This is calculated based on daily rainfall data from APHRODITE and each policy’s payout structure. The weather station constants are the premium in 2005, the average historical payout, the total number of historical payouts, and the standard deviation of rainfall. Historical variables are calculated for the period 1962-2004. Observations are weighted by the quality of rainfall data. If there are no rainfall stations contributing to the APHRODITE data in 2004 within a .75°x.75° grid around

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Input: spirit of a Bstress-test^ to examine the seriousness of the issue, this paper employs flood hazard maps and spatial socioeconomic data to examine the following questions in context of Vietnam: 1. How many people are exposed currently? How might this change under climate change? 2. Where is exposure highest currently? How might this change under climate change? 3. How many poor people are exposed currently? How might this change under climate change? Furthermore, given that the dynamics of poverty and natural disasters (and particularly, floods) occur at the local level, analyses at the national scale (or even at the province or district level) may miss important mechanisms and small-scale differences, from one city block to the next. To complement the country-level analysis, we also focus at the local level within Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), a city with high flood exposure. Here, we combine high-resolution flood hazard data with spatial data on slum location to examine the distribution of exposure across poor and non-poor locations. While prior studies have examined flood risk in Vietnam, this paper provides two main contributions. First, we develop new high-resolution flood hazard datasets, which incorporate both riverine and coastal flooding and consider climate change. [1]

flood hazard maps
spatial socioeconomic data
high-resolution flood hazard data

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Input: skewed. [10] As the scatter plot in Figure 5.1 suggests, the association between overall environmental problems and lending is very strong for those countries that have received environmental loans. **Figure 5.1: World Bank Environmental Lending vs.** **Overall Environmental Problems (Log Scale)** In a log-log regression of environmental lending on the overall environmental indicator (Table 5.1, column 1), the estimated response elasticity is .70, with an associated t-statistic of 10.3 and regression R [2] (adjusted for degrees of freedom) of .53. 10 Conventional regression and correlation analysis assume that variable distributions do not contain extreme “outlier” observations, because such outliers can sharply skew the results. In this case, both nominal and per-capita distributions are extremely skewed. Log measures, on the other hand, have regular, approximately-normal distributions with no outliers. 12

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Input: the IAs will, however, continue to coordinate with and report to MINEMA pursuant to the terms of MoUs they will sign; and (b) BRD will convene quarterly coordination meetings with other organizations supporting host community-refugee livelihood to identify synergies and opportunities for collaboration. **B. Results Monitoring, Evaluation, and Verification Arrangements** 54. **M&E System.** MINEMA will have overall responsibility for M&E, including the preparation of consolidated quarterly progress reports and an Annual Report to the World Bank. MINEMA, BRD, RTDA and BDF will have M&E specialists responsible for collecting and collating data on project outputs and outcomes. Reporting templates will be reviewed for Phase II and included in an updated M&E section in the PIM. The existing Project MIS will continue to be utilized. 55. **Project results will be captured through baseline, annual and endline surveys.** This will include surveys of users of project-financed infrastructure (schools, health facilities, water systems, markets, etc.) to directly track satisfaction with Jya Mbere II investments. Regular phone surveys will also be conducted for beneficiaries under component two to gather data on business sustainability and profitability to allow for real-time learning and course correction as necessary. Page 15

surveys of users of project-financed infrastructure

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Input: Bank household surveys are available with subnational representativeness. These subnational units are typically provinces or states (i.e. admin1) but can also include custom groupings of subnational regions determined by the sampling strategy of household surveys. Overall, this study covers 189 countries, which are disaggregated into 2,260 subnational units. **3.4.** **Poverty estimates** For each of the 2,260 subnational units, the World Bank’s Global Monitoring Database offers several poverty estimates, which are all derived from the latest available Living Standards Measurement Survey (LSMS) for the respective country. For the purpose of this study, the standard World Bank definitions of poverty are used to determine the number of poor people in a given subnational administrative unit. Specifically, poverty is defined by the daily expenditure thresholds of $1.90, $3.20, and $5.50. ##### **4. Methodology** **4.1. Concept of analysis** To estimate the number of people who are exposed to intense flood risk, this study follows four main steps: **1.** **Generate a combined flood hazard map:** For each country and each subnational administrative unit, a single flood hazard layer is created by combining different flood types. The resulting flood map has a 90-meters resolution, with each pixel showing estimated inundation depths in meters. For pixels where

World Bank’s Global Monitoring Database
Living Standards Measurement Survey

household surveys
Bank household surveys

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Input: **Table A2 Summary statistics for children’s surveys** (1) (2) (3) (4) far from a mine close to a mine before during before during _infant mortality_ first 12 months 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.06 _child health_ diarrhea 0.17 0.17 0.13 0.17 cough 0.24 0.22 0.22 0.18 fever 0.20 0.21 0.24 0.20 _child anthropometrics_ ht/age (st dev.) -94.43 -104.88 -127.04 -115.76 wt/age (st dev.) -90.80 -100.16 -114.28 -103.48 wh/ht (st dev.) -40.29 -45.24 -47.816 -40.52 Sample size (child at birth) 3709 2204 661 314 _Note:_ Column (1) is a sample at 20 to 100 km from a nonactive mine. Column (2) is a sample at 20 to 100 km from an active mine. Column (3) is a sample within 20 km of a nonactive mine. Column (4) is a sample within 20 km of an active mine. Infant mortality considers mine active status in birth year. ht/age = height-to-age; wt/age = weight-to-age; wh/ht = weight to height; st. dev. = standard deviation. **Table A3. Heterogeneous effects for bottom 40%, with urban locality interactions, intensity of** **mining, and timing of opening** Woman’s occupation agri- service profess- manual not earns works culture sales ional labor working cash all year PANEL A: Bottom 40% active*mine 0.033

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Input: As property rights and their links to rural-urban integration have recently been identified as key reform areas by China’s leadership, drawing the lessons from past reform experiments is important. Yet, beyond anecdotal accounts, few studies aim to assess either the magnitude of associated impacts or their incidence among different types of households. To provide a rigorous quantitative assessment, we use the fact that the experiment was implemented in Chengdu prefecture, with neighboring counties remaining unaffected. Panel data from NBS’ regular rural household survey for counties on both sides of the boundary allow us to assess reform impacts on household consumption and income, labor supply, incidence of land rental, crop choice, and productivity of agricultural land use. We use a triple difference strategy based on changes within the same household before and after the reform and inside vs. outside the boundary for identification, a choice justified by noting that sample counties on both sides of the border followed parallel trends before the intervention and we can control for a range of time variant public programs, in particular pension and medical schemes as well as agricultural subsidies that may have been implemented differently on both sides. Results suggest that about 3-4 years

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Input: countries, however, until very recently Israel did not have an asylum system, and its ongoing institutional evolution is partly a response to the recent influx. Although it carries distinctive features, Israel‘s asylum regime is guided by the prevalent exclusionary logic which dominates the policies of other developed countries. This has important implications for the asylum seekers. Their countries of origin and the scale of their influx challenge existing ̳humanitarian spaces‘. Once a critical threshold has been crossed, they are seen as a threat which can no longer be contained. Accommodating measures are being rejected for self-preservation considerations, spurred-on by Israel‘s ethnonational identity. Relatively little has been written about the meaning and significance of these developments (Willen 2010a, 2010b; Afeef 2009; Kritzman-Amir 2009; Yacobi 2009; Man 2010). This study seeks to complement the existing literature, drawing on a combination of primary and secondary sources. During July 2010, a period of field work was carried out in which 14 semi-structured interviews were conducted. Representatives of the key institutional bodies that deal with refugees and asylum seekers were interviewed; namely the state (officials and politicians); civil society (senior NGO staff and academics); and personnel at the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner

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Input: is derived from a number of data sources and categories: ‘Lagoon’ from ArcWorld (ESRI, 1992: referenced in Lehner and Döll 2004); ‘Delta’, ‘Lagoon’, ‘Mangrove’, ‘Estuary’, ‘Coastal Wetland’, and ‘Tidal Wetland’ of WCMC wetlands map (Dugan, 1993; WCMC, 1993; referenced in Lehner and Döll 2004) - see Lehner and Döll (2004) for a detailed description. 7

WCMC wetlands map
‘Lagoon’ from ArcWorld
ArcWorld

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Input: a cost in net revenues because it was not clear what value to assign to wages. We controlled for household labor by using household size as a proxy. In each country, districts were chosen to get farms across a wide range of climate conditions in that country. In each chosen district, a random but clustered sample of farms was selected. The clustering helped to reduce survey expenses. The number of surveys in each country 6

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Input: the ERR to 23 percent while increasing the estimated number of beneficiaries by 20 percent increased the ERR to 35 percent. **B. Fiduciary** **(i)** **Financial Management** 63. The FM assessments for the project implementing agencies were conducted using World Bank Guidance: FM Manual for World Bank Investment Project Financing Operations, reissued on September 7, 2021. The purpose of the assessment was to evaluate the adequacy of FM arrangements to support project implementation. The objectives of the assessment were to determine whether the MoHAIS has minimum FM arrangements, adequate to ensure that (a) funds are properly accounted for and used only for the intended purposes in an efficient and economical way; (b) capability exists for the preparation of accurate, reliable, and timely periodic financial reports; (c) internal controls exist which allow 45 A 15 percent discount rate is estimated as the risk-adjusted opportunity cost of capital. Additional NPV estimates at other discount rates have also been provided as a measure of the sensitivity of the analysis. 46 This corresponds to the average village population in similar areas according to the International Organization for Migration (IOM). This information can be accessed at Village Assessment Survey County Profiles. [https://iomsouthsudan.org/tracking/sites/default/publicfiles/documents/Lakes.pdf](https://iomsouthsudan.org/tracking/sites/default/publicfiles/documents/Lakes.pdf) _._ 47 Burden of

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Input: Bangladesh and the two Indian coastal states, our methods are general and could be expanded to an arbitrarily-large set of coastal locations. We use the database for an analysis of cyclone strike locations and impact zones in seven historical periods: 1877-1900, 1901-1920, 1921-1940, 1941-1960, 1961-1980, 1981-2000 and 2001-2016. Although we believe that our results have independent interest, we highlight their implications for socioeconomic analysis of household and community responses to cyclonic storm risks. Episodic, short-run responses to some individual storms are well-documented. Such anecdotal evidence certainly provides many useful insights, but georeferenced panel data are required for systematic comparative research on coastal adaptation. In this context, robust assessment of causal factors requires significant variation in cyclone impacts, both across coastal areas and over time. The results of our seven-period analysis indicate that such variation characterizes the coastal zone. During each 20-year period, some areas have 20

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Input: rural areas** . Maternal mortality remains high (234 deaths for 100,000 births) with rural areas driving the trend [4] . According to the **Human Capital Review for Djibouti (World Bank, 2024)**, access to basic services such as targeted social safety nets, education and healthcare remains limited, with rural areas experiencing the most pronounced deprivations. The widespread poverty in these regions is characterized by poor living conditions, inadequate access to clean water and sanitation, and substandard infrastructure, and limitations on the freedom of movement for camp-based refugees. [5] While this situation is aggravated for refugees, who can face discrimination and challenges related to documentation, members of the host community also live in precarity. These factors contribute to a lower quality of life and hinder economic opportunities. 10. **The Dikhil region, an arid and resource-constrained area in southern Djibouti, faces a unique and multifaceted** **challenge of poverty that requires a comprehensive, integrated rural development approach.** The region not only hosts a significant migrant population, primarily from Ethiopia, but also grapples with chronic underdevelopment, reflected in high poverty rates, limited access to basic services (including water, sanitation, healthcare, and education), and high levels of unemployment. The continuous inflow of migrants places additional strain

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Input: in working conditions amongst Ukrainian Temporary Protection holders. Employment continued to be mentioned as one of the top two priority needs (32%) of households interviewed. Moreover, in terms of information, 29% of respondents indicated a need for more information about job opportunities; this continued to be the highest reported information need. 4 As per the 2024 Socio-Economic Insights Survey conducted by UNHCR, this figure could be as high as 79% amongst working-age Ukrainian refugees. The data was collected in the period 15 May-16 July. UNHCR / September 2024 4

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Input: **Annex** **Table A1. Variable definitions** _Characteristics_ total children Total lifetime fertility wealth Household wealth index score non-migrant Respondent was born in the location and has never moved migrant Any respondent who has ever moved in their life urban The household lives in urban area _Woman’s occupation_ not working Was not working in last 12 months service & sales Works in services or sales professional Works as a professional agriculture Works in agriculture manual labor Works in manual labor earning cash Earns cash for work (0= not paid, in kind) works all year Works all year (0= seasonally, occasionally) _Woman’s education_ 3 years education At least 3 years of education no education No education _Child health_ first 12 months Child died within 12 months from birth diarrhea Child had diarrhea in last 2 weeks cough Child had cough in last 2 weeks fever Child had fever in last 2 weeks _Child anthropometrics_ ht/age (st dev.) Height for age (standard deviation) wt/age (st dev.) Weight for age (standard deviation) wh/ht (st dev.) Weight for height (standard deviation) 40

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Input: can make a large difference in the flood hazard particularly in well-protected areas. In these wellprotected areas, our flood maps may overestimate the flood hazard. This is a data limitation that affects many studies of flood exposure: even in high-income countries like the US, flood protection databases are incomplete and many areas are left undefended in national models when in reality they are defended (Wing et al. 2017). While recent work has tried to patch together a database of flood protection (Scussolini et al. 2016), the authors admit much remains unclear and this is a current state of the research. For most of the analyses, the Bcombined^ maps are used, which include both coastal and the fluvial/pluvial floods. For instance, the combined maps for the 25-year return period flood (under current conditions, and low, medium, and high future conditions) are presented in Fig. 1. Local Flood Hazard Maps for Ho Chi Minh City In addition to the flood hazard maps developed for this study as described above, we use an additional set of maps produced specifically for HCMC. 2 These uncertainties largely arise from climate models; global climate models (GCMs) struggle to represent the physical processes that produce extreme rainfall.

flood protection databases
flood hazard maps

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Input: **Figure A2 Using GLSS: Employment and wages** **Panel A Woman working in services** **Panel B Log wages (woman)** **Panel C Man working in mining** **Panel D Log wages (man)** _Note:_ The four panels show the regression results from four spatial lag models using the GLSS sample. The sample is restricted to women (top two) and men (bottom two) aged 15–49. The solid lines are the coefficient for _active*mine_ for 7 distance bins (0–10 km, 10–20 km, ... 60–70 km) compared with a control group (80–100 km) away. The regressions also control for mine location at the same distances. See table 11 for control variables. 45

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Input: 1% of occurring in any given year). As with all global flood maps, the effects of artificial flood protection structures like dikes are not incorporated. Two editions of the Fathom global flood maps are available; 2016 and 2019. Wherever available, the newer version has been used. The 2019 version differs from the 2016 version in the resolution of the digital elevation model that has been used to simulate event scenarios. The 2019 edition uses the newest DEM MERIT elevation model that corrects for multiple errors, including tree and building height adjustments. **Coastal flooding** is caused by storm surges and high tides in coastal areas. A commonly used global coastal flood risk map is used in this study: the Global Tide and Surge Reanalysis (GTSR) data set by Muis et al. 2016. As it uses a digital terrain model that does not account for common errors such as stripe noise and tree heights (unlike for instance DTM MERIT), this map is expected to provide a lower bound or conservative estimate of global coastal flood risk. In particular, resulting from coarse resolution in modeling elevation, bathymetry and meteorological forcing, the data set underestimates extreme sea levels. In addition, the largest tropical cyclone-induced

Fathom global flood maps
Global Tide and Surge Reanalysis (GTSR)

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Input: Our results for total Bank lending are uniformly significant at the 99% level, and the results for the OED ratings are significant at the 95% level or higher. The parameter estimates suggest that a 1% increase in Bank lending is associated with a .4% increase in environmental lending, and a 1% increase in the OED rating is associated with an environmental lending increase of about 1%. Once we control for these two factors, environmental problems retain a significant impact on environmental lending at the 99% level. However, the estimated response elasticity drops from .70 to around .45. The results for AAA in Figure 5.1 are quite different from the results for lending. The association with environmental problems is uniformly significant at the 99% confidence level, but we find no significance for environmental lending, non environmental lending, the OED success probability, or any regional dummies. R squares for the AAA regressions are much lower than R-squares for lending, suggesting a much greater random component in the allocation of AAA resources. **6. Allocation by Environmental Theme** From an institutional perspective, our overall results for lending are encouraging because they suggest that large, politically-difficult reallocations across countries would not generally be necessary to

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Input: **The World Bank** Costa Rica Results in Education (CORE) (P181174) 47. **The economic analysis suggests that this Project would yield positive benefits that outweigh its costs, with a** **Net Present Value estimated at US$383 million.** The internal rate of return is 21 percent, with a 5 percent discount rate. The analysis estimates the Project’s economic impact by projecting the increased earning potential of graduating cohorts as they participate in the labor market. Upon evaluating the anticipated effect size of the Project’s components on academic performance, the analysis converted these gains to additional years of schooling, and subsequently to increased income. The graduating student cohorts were disaggregated to those who entered the workforce immediately upon finishing secondary school and those who pursued tertiary education to account for the variance in workforce participation and the years in which they would enter the workforce. The analysis aggregated the effect on income until 2039, when the last cohort who benefit from the Project would graduate from the compulsory education system in Costa Rica. Annex 2 presents the Economic and Financial Analysis for the Project. **Paris Alignment** 48. **Assessment and reduction of mitigation risks.** Project activities are expected to have negligible GHG contributions, and as

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Input: **______________________________________________________________________________** **Table 4.1: Trend Tests for Thematic Shares** Climate Pollution Land Biodiversity [8] Water Policy Other Time 0.318 -0.167 0.639 0.074 0.008 -1.071 0.199 (0.63) (0.19) (1.38) (0.37) (0.01) (1.65) (1.09) Constant 8.337 33.404 8.529 2.215 20.456 24.930 2.128 (2.44)* (5.54)** (2.72)* (1.61) (5.86)** (5.67)** (1.71) Obs. 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 R-squared 0.04 0.00 0.17 0.01 0.00 0.23 0.12 Absolute values of t statistics in parentheses - significant at 5%; ** significant at 1% **______________________________________________________________________________** Produced by thousands of interactions between the Bank and its partner countries, these results suggest very strong continuity in the relative valuation of thematic objectives. We will return to this point in Section 7, which develops a model for the optimal allocation of environmental resource allocation by the Bank. **5. How Has Environment Mattered in the Aggregate?** We begin our assessment by analyzing the match between environmental lending, AAA and environmental problems at the country level. Our overall environmental indicator is the mean of the five thematic indicators. [9] We use log values for the analysis because the size distributions of country indicators and resource allocations are extremely 8 For biodiversity, our data include only Bank lending. Grants by the Global Environment

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Input: **The World Bank** Uganda Development Response to Displacement Impacts Project Phase II (P510476) PROJECT APPRAISAL DOCUMENT include selected activities in the transit districts of Kisoro, Kanungu, Bundibugyo, and Ntoroko (Western Region) and Amuru and Lamwo (Northern Region). [14] The urban centers of Gulu, Mbarara, Arua, Koboko, and Kitgum will be included in some components. Geographic coverage can be expanded later if the government officially adds new RHDs or transit districts. Implementation will commence first in the 12 RHDs, where project structures from Phase I can be rapidly reestablished. Activities will commence in the transit districts and urban centers in year two, once needs assessments have been completed. DRDIP II’s largest footprint will be in the north, which has been most affected by the recent inflows. Planning and implementation will be informed by a clear understanding of the context of each district. 16. **Transit districts do not permanently host refugees, but field assessments have shown that population flows in** **those locations affect the delivery of basic services while asylum seekers wait to have their status assessed and be** **assigned to a host district.** Accordingly, project funds will be allocated to respond to the displacement impacts in the transit districts to expand

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Input: contain the marketing restricted sample, which is restricted only to villages where at least one person purchased insurance in the following year. All regressions contain state fixed effects. Errors are clustered at the weather-station level. ***p _<_ 0.01, **p _<_ 0.05, *p _<_ 0.1. _Source_ : Authors’ analysis based on data from BASIX. the year before. I then regress the number of each type of buyer on payout statistics and the total number of buyers in the previous year. When there was an insurance payout in the previous year, most of the repeat buyers received money from the insurance company while new buyers did not receive anything. [14] If there are similar effects of payouts on people who had not purchased insurance the year before, this would be evidence that insurance payouts are generating trust and/or learning about insurance. [15] These results are presented in table 7. In order to compare results with the main specification in table 3, I again provide a dummy for whether there was a payout in the village along with a quadratic effect of the ratio of payouts to the premium. When aggregating the village data, I use the mean of the payout ratios in

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Input: **The World Bank** Integrated Community Resilience Project (P506969) PROJECT APPRAISAL DOCUMENT incorporate climate risk awareness and opportunities, covering areas such as sustainable livestock practices, waterefficient grazing, hydroponics, and solar-powered solutions. 49. **In addition to IGAs, support will be provided to cooperatives, family businesses and individual entrepreneurs,** **including those with existing business activities and potential for growth** . These interventions will help beneficiaries scale their operations, improve productivity, and access markets. Beneficiaries, including refugees and host communities, will collaborate on IGAs or business ventures, utilizing peer learning, skills-sharing, and value-chain integration to expand market access. Priority for business support will be given to sectors that generate jobs, particularly those that leverage value chains and cross-border economic opportunities. The project will strengthen market linkages and value chain integration, helping beneficiaries connect with local, national, and regional markets. This approach will include training on business development, understanding value chains, accessing new markets, and procurement, which will increase the sustainability of their activities and expand their reach. Finally, the sub-component will provide ongoing mentorship and technical assistance to ensure business sustainability. Animateurs will work closely with beneficiaries to provide tailored support in managing and growing their businesses, helping them overcome challenges and build resilience

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Input: National Adaptation Plan (NAP) (2019)**, aiming to reduce vulnerability to climate change and to facilitate integration of adaptation into all levels of development planning including (i) access to water for all; ii) the promotion of best practices in the agricultural, forestry, fishery, and tourism sectors and reduced vulnerability to the effects of climate change and increase the resilience of the most exposed socioeconomic or geographical sectors; iii) the protection of ecosystems and ecosystem services; and iv) the resilience of key strategic infrastructure. The project will contribute to the objectives of the NAP with climate adaptation activities outlined in component 2 and financial inclusion under component 1. 20. **The Project is also fully aligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement** . The project is aligned with Djibouti’s commitment to combatting climate change as outlined in the 2023 revised Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). The government prepared a draft version of a revised NDC outlining both mitigation and adaptation measures aligned 17 World Bank (2024), Climate Change Development Report 18 World Bank (2023), [World Development Report 2023: Migrants, Refugees and Societies](https://www.worldbank.org/en/events/2023/06/29/wdr2023) Page 6

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Input: Economics of Disasters and Climate Change Barrett A, McIntosh R, Pritchard M, Hannan M, Alam Z, Marks M (2013) Asset Values: Why Are Some Households Doing Better than Others? Chars Livelihood Program Ceola S, Laio F, Montanari A (2014) Satellite nighttime lights reveal increasing human exposure to floods [worldwide. Geophys Res Lett 41(20):7184–7190. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL061859](https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL061859) Chinh DT, Dung NV, Gain AK, Kreibich H (2017) Flood loss models and risk analysis for private households in can Tho City. Vietnam Water 9:313 De Lay S (2011) Slums in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Global Cities 2011. [http://hochiminhcity2011.jimdo.](http://hochiminhcity2011.jimdo.com/slums/) [com/slums/](http://hochiminhcity2011.jimdo.com/slums/) Del Valle, Alejandro et al. (2018) The Short-Term Economic Impact of Tropical Cyclones: Satellite Evidence from Guangdong Province. Econ Dis Climate Chang 1–11 DHI (2003) MIKE 11 - A Modelling System for Rivers and Channels. Short Introduction Tutorial. Water and Environment Fay M (2005) The Urban Poor in Latin America. Directions in Development - General. The World Bank. [http://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/book/10.1596/0-8213-6069-8](http://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/book/10.1596/0-8213-6069-8) FIM (2013) Final Report, Volume 2, Integrated Flood Management Strategy. Ho Chi Minh City Flood and Inundation Management Geographic Information Science and Technology (2015) Landscan Population Data. Oak Ridge National Laboratory [GFDRR (2015) Country Profile - Vietnam. https://www.gfdrr.org/sites/gfdrr/files/region/VN.pdf](https://www.gfdrr.org/sites/gfdrr/files/region/VN.pdf) Goeschl T, Managi S (2017) Public in-kind relief

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Input: protection to respond to ecosystem** **degradation in the RHDs and additional impacts caused by climate change and refugee presence.** The expansion of farming by refugees and host communities is driving rapid deforestation in the RHDs, reducing the extent of natural forests and woodlands. Refugees and hosts also harvest wood for cooking, shelter, and fencing in excess of sustainable yields, causing additional degradation of tree cover and affecting fragile sites such as wetlands, hillsides, and riverine areas. In addition to the environmental impacts, this can be a source of tension between refugees and host community members. Climate change is exacerbating these challenges, as previously explained, with lower rainfall, longer and more frequent droughts, and more frequent extreme weather events. These factors are causing more crop failure, water scarcity and floods, droughts and landslides. The component will support 730,000 people (50 percent female/20 percent refugees) with enhanced resilience of terrestrial and aquatic systems, covering at least 11,200 hectares of land. 21 The AI Model was produced under the Enhancing Self-Reliance and Preparedness for Forced Displacement in the Great Lakes Region Advisory Services and Analytics (P500793). Data and analysis from the model, if rendered live, could also be used to support monitoring, evaluation,

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Input: areas, our flood maps may over-estimate the flood hazard. When including climate change, this percentage increases by 13–27%, depending on the severity of sea level rise. This increase in exposure is due to the concentration of the population in coastal areas. For the 50-year flood, more than a third (38%) of today’s population is already exposed. Given climate change, this number is expected to increase by 7–21% (resulting in overall exposure of between 40 and 48%) for the same return period (50-year). For a 100- and 200-year flood under a high climate scenario, more than half of the population is exposed. Climate change impacts can be seen in these exposure numbers - for instance, a 50-year flood with medium climate change impacts has the same exposure of a 200-year historical flood (at 44%), while almost half the country’s population (48%) is exposed to a 50-year flood with high climate impacts. Full results are presented in Table 3. But these national results on exposure are not evenly be distributed across the country. The spatial analysis also allows us to examine which districts have the highest absolute and the highest relative exposure. We present results for the 25-year flood, for a historical

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Input: more difficult. According to UNHCR’s protection monitoring, over 54% of families have at least one child without a birth certificate, and 71% have family members without national identity cards. Displaced populations are often unable to access or have lost civil documentation and face challenges getting replacements for reasons connected to their displacement. Often legal assistance is needed to resolve the issue and access to justice is inhibited by the lack of identity documents. Without additional funding, 12,780 IDPs and IDP returnees won’t be able to access identity documents or legal assistance. UNHCR’s protection monitoring found that 91% of IDP households have at least one member with a vulnerability. Without additional funding, 3,170 extremely vulnerable people will go without urgent tailored support to those processing trauma and living with mental health issues, survivors of gender-based violence, elderly individuals often living alone, and people with disabilities. [For more information, please contact the UNHCR MENA Regional Ofce in Amman (Jordan) at: MENAreporting@unhcr.org](https://www.unhcr.org/) [www.unhcr.org](https://www.unhcr.org/) ~~6~~

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Input: _Note:_ This figure shows the mine locations and the district in which the mines are located. The baseline specification is shown in the following equation: Y��� - β�active_district�� - ∝�� g� �λX�� �ε��� �3� The outcome for individual _i_ in district _d_ in time period _t_ is regressed on district and year fixed effects, an indicator for whether the individual lived in an active mine district at the time of the interview, and time varying individual-level factors. Even though the treatment is defined at the district level, we use individual-level data to be able to control for individual- level factors and explore heterogeneity at the individual level. The standard errors are, however, clustered at the district level to take into account the interdependence induced by the higher-level treatment. Since the treatment variable is at the same level as our district fixed effects, the _β1_ coefficients are directly interpretable as difference-in-differences estimates. That is, they capture the difference between mining districts and nonmining districts before and after mining starts. In estimating the district-level effects of mine openings on birth outcomes, we control for birth year fixed effects instead of survey-year fixed effects, as we are interested in the effect of mining

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Input: works with states to address the challenges of irregular and mixed movements at Europe’s borders through a comprehensive [route-based approach. This strategy focuses on](https://www.refworld.org/policy/strategy/unhcr/2024/en/148087) coordinated actions to protect refugees and migrants, uphold their rights and reduce dangerous journeys. It emphasizes cooperation among states, UN agencies and civil society to manage irregular movements and ensure responses align with international obligations. 2 Mediterranean Situation [Operational Data Portal](https://data.unhcr.org/en/situations/mediterranean) 3 8,500 arrivals to Italy; 6,900 to Greece; 6,500 arrivals to Spain (4,095 of whom arrived in the Canary Islands); and 216 to Cyprus. 4 As of 30 September 2024. Page 4 **U N H C R R E G I O N A L B U R E A U F O R E U R O P E,** O C T O B E R 2 0 2 4

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Input: vulnerable communities, including refugees and host communities. By linking safety nets with livelihood opportunities and broader socio-economic development, the project aims to foster resilience, inclusion, and sustainable economic growth in target areas. These include underserved regions such as Dikhil and refugee-hosting locations facing pressures from population inflows, strained public services, and climaterelated vulnerabilities. Additionally, the social protection support will be expanded across all regions to ensure broader coverage. **B. Theory of Change and PDO Indicators** 19 World Bank, 2025, Djibouti Climate Change Development Report (CCDR) 20 Project’s activities are exposed to identified climate risks (extreme heat, droughts, floods), but each activity financed under this operation will integrate climate-resilient design to reduce material risks to an acceptable level. Page 7

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Input: gain from having full ownership as compared to only occupancy rights on customary land is expected to amount to 3.5% for coffee, 16.3% for fruits, and 20.0% for banana with correspondingly larger gains of 9.3%, 31.9%, and 39.1%, respectively, on freehold or _mailo_ land. To interpret these figures, note that they are very conservative estimates as they completely neglect the value of soil fertility investment which can be very large according to recent studies valuing annual nutrient loss due to lack of soil conservation at 20% of average household income (Pender _et al._ 2004). Given that in addition we also exclude any credit-related investment incentives due to clear land ownership, the coefficients estimated here points towards substantial economic effects of overlapping property rights. **4.3 Options to increase tenure security** Our results thus far imply that, despite legal provisions aiming to strengthen property rights to land that is only occupied but not owned, significant and quantitatively large investment disincentives persist and cause productivity losses of considerable magnitude. This makes it important to explore other ways of bringing investment levels on such land closer to the social optimum. To explore this, our survey asked households who occupied land under usufruct about their

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Input: members’ labor supply to farm or off-farm activities, migration, income from different sources, and an account of agricultural output and inputs. We also have data on key village characteristics including total working age population, agricultural land, and distance to public health and education facilities to control for village level time-varying effects. With 9-13 villages per county and a sample size of 10 households per village, the pre-reform sample comprises a total of 310 and 470 households inside and outside Chengdu, respectively. [11] The post-reform sample similarly includes 280 and 390 households inside and outside the prefecture boundary. After dropping some 5% of sample households who neither engaged in productive activities nor participated in labor markets due to old age or disability, we end up with a sample of 285 pre- and 259 post-reform 9 The NBS sample is drawn from a fixed set of counties. We compare outcomes of NBS households in counties from both sides of the Chengdu prefecture border with three counties in Chengdu and four counties in Meishan and Ziyang. 10 We use the years of 2005 and 2006 for the pre-reform and of 2011 and 2012 for the post-reform period. To avoid contamination as land reform

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