TimeRCD Zero-Shot TSAD Reproduction

Evidence logbook for Relative Context Discrepancy, synthetic pretraining, and reported benchmark claims.
ICML 2026
paper #12052

Reported rankings changed from the prompt

38 / 14
current paper zero-shot first / second, 64 cases
41 / 6
prompt claim, 56 cases
35 / 3
current paper full-shot first / second
28
prompt full-shot first claim

The extracted camera-ready paper text does not match the user-supplied ranking counts, so the ranking claims are partially supported only for the current-paper version.

Mechanism verified in released code

  • 8-layer, 8-head Transformer-style encoder with RoPE.
  • Separate reconstruction and anomaly heads are present.
  • Zero-shot wrapper returns anomaly logits, not reconstruction error alone.
HeadLoss
reconstructionMSE
anomalycross entropy

Generator stages present

  • Univariate templates with trend, seasonality, noise, and local changes.
  • Multivariate DAG sampling with ARX-style parent dynamics.
  • Endogenous/exogenous anomaly paths and token-level labels.
15,360
local generated public-code points; T4 job generated 34,816

Reduced cloud cross-check

A T4 Hugging Face Job cloned the public repos, generated official synthetic samples, and ran a transparent contextual-anomaly proxy.

65.8k/s
T4 generator throughput
0.134
toy RCD proxy F1

The proxy favors relative context over one-step reconstruction, but it is not a substitute for the released checkpoint benchmark.