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2026-04-02.json

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+{
+  "date": "2026-04-02",
+  "timestamp": "2026-04-02T21:10:43.624Z",
+  "index": {
+    "uncertainty": 22,
+    "geopolitical": 62,
+    "momentum": 0.06
+  },
+  "traditional": [
+    {
+      "symbol": "SPY",
+      "price": 655.13,
+      "changePct": 0.81
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "VIXY",
+      "price": 33.54,
+      "changePct": -1.84
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "TLT",
+      "price": 86.45,
+      "changePct": -0.18
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "GLD",
+      "price": 436.88,
+      "changePct": 1.82
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "USO",
+      "price": 123.39,
+      "changePct": -2.7
+    }
+  ],
+  "topics": [
+    {
+      "name": "Geopolitical",
+      "movers": [
+        {
+          "title": "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?",
+          "ticker": "0xd9fb1184af0064e5e3",
+          "price": 10,
+          "delta": 0,
+          "volume": 359444.58327400027,
+          "venue": "polymarket",
+          "isAnchor": true
+        },
+        {
+          "title": "Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?",
+          "ticker": "0x6bd56627aa21311850",
+          "price": 11,
+          "delta": 0,
+          "volume": 55123.256466,
+          "venue": "polymarket",
+          "isAnchor": true
+        },
+        {
+          "title": "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?",
+          "ticker": "0x5db999fad322cea291",
+          "price": 55,
+          "delta": 0,
+          "volume": 203694.41991799997,
+          "venue": "polymarket",
+          "isAnchor": true
+        },
+        {
+          "title": "Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?: June 30, 2026",
+          "ticker": "0xb23587fc1e319cdf9a",
+          "price": 50,
+          "delta": -6,
+          "volume": 13731,
+          "venue": "polymarket",
+          "isAnchor": false
+        }
+      ],
+      "totalChanges": 35
+    },
+    {
+      "name": "Economy",
+      "movers": [
+        {
+          "title": "Fed decision in April?: 50+ bps decrease",
+          "ticker": "0xd72622d154dfe65b9c",
+          "price": 0,
+          "delta": 0,
+          "volume": 1022313.8407500003,
+          "venue": "polymarket",
+          "isAnchor": true
+        },
+        {
+          "title": "Fed decision in April?: No change",
+          "ticker": "0x36e8ca24d2a13435f5",
+          "price": 98,
+          "delta": 0,
+          "volume": 676012.0539590003,
+          "venue": "polymarket",
+          "isAnchor": true
+        },
+        {
+          "title": "Fed decision in April?: 25+ bps increase",
+          "ticker": "0xd4d00e5bf8b960cc37",
+          "price": 1,
+          "delta": 0,
+          "volume": 613864.49299,
+          "venue": "polymarket",
+          "isAnchor": true
+        },
+        {
+          "title": "How high will inflation get in 2026?: Above 6%",
+          "ticker": "0xa7abe7ea40a00434c7",
+          "price": 22,
+          "delta": 8,
+          "volume": 4223,
+          "venue": "polymarket",
+          "isAnchor": false
+        }
+      ],
+      "totalChanges": 56
+    },
+    {
+      "name": "Energy",
+      "movers": [
+        {
+          "title": "EPL \u2013 Which Clubs Get Relegated?: Brentford",
+          "ticker": "0x11801110e49798883d",
+          "price": 1,
+          "delta": 0,
+          "volume": 0,
+          "venue": "polymarket",
+          "isAnchor": true
+        },
+        {
+          "title": "Oil",
+          "ticker": "USO",
+          "price": 123.39,
+          "delta": -342,
+          "volume": 0,
+          "venue": "traditional",
+          "isAnchor": true
+        },
+        {
+          "title": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.080?",
+          "ticker": "KXAAAGASD-26APR02-4.080",
+          "price": 55,
+          "delta": 14,
+          "volume": 4216,
+          "venue": "kalshi",
+          "isAnchor": false
+        },
+        {
+          "title": "Will the natural gas close price be above $2.725 on Apr 2, 2026 at 5pm",
+          "ticker": "KXNATGASD-26APR0217-T2.725",
+          "price": 59,
+          "delta": 59,
+          "volume": 0,
+          "venue": "kalshi",
+          "isAnchor": false
+        }
+      ],
+      "totalChanges": 31
+    },
+    {
+      "name": "Elections",
+      "movers": [
+        {
+          "title": "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Mike Pence",
+          "ticker": "0x41c6341dd79903aca4",
+          "price": 1,
+          "delta": 0,
+          "volume": 758676.4133980002,
+          "venue": "polymarket",
+          "isAnchor": true
+        },
+        {
+          "title": "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028: Raphael Warnock",
+          "ticker": "0xdce84960dce38aa4a5",
+          "price": 1,
+          "delta": 0,
+          "volume": 713703.504902,
+          "venue": "polymarket",
+          "isAnchor": true
+        },
+        {
+          "title": "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028: Jon Ossoff",
+          "ticker": "0x74dba1ce1ae9dd5354",
+          "price": 5,
+          "delta": 0,
+          "volume": 660826.0323,
+          "venue": "polymarket",
+          "isAnchor": true
+        },
+        {
+          "title": "Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?: Pam Bondi",
+          "ticker": "0x79e008f552c7459175",
+          "price": 100,
+          "delta": 46,
+          "volume": 186587,
+          "venue": "polymarket",
+          "isAnchor": false
+        }
+      ],
+      "totalChanges": 298
+    },
+    {
+      "name": "Crypto",
+      "movers": [
+        {
+          "title": "What will happen before GTA VI?: Bitcoin hits $1m",
+          "ticker": "0xbb57ccf5853a85487b",
+          "price": 49,
+          "delta": 0,
+          "volume": 20232.630437,
+          "venue": "polymarket",
+          "isAnchor": true
+        },
+        {
+          "title": "Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?",
+          "ticker": "0x4bd2d6744cfb40bd33",
+          "price": 5,
+          "delta": 0,
+          "volume": 5974.227549,
+          "venue": "polymarket",
+          "isAnchor": true
+        },
+        {
+          "title": "Crypto Twitter mindshare ATH by March 31, 2026?: Sisyphus",
+          "ticker": "0x0b4987432902340aec",
+          "price": 100,
+          "delta": 0,
+          "volume": 4340.12,
+          "venue": "polymarket",
+          "isAnchor": true
+        },
+        {
+          "title": "Crypto Twitter mindshare ATH by March 31, 2026?: Proph3t",
+          "ticker": "0xd8eb7920b5dabee320",
+          "price": 96,
+          "delta": 56,
+          "volume": 42,
+          "venue": "polymarket",
+          "isAnchor": false
+        }
+      ],
+      "totalChanges": 32
+    },
+    {
+      "name": "Tech",
+      "movers": [
+        {
+          "title": "Largest Company end of June?: Apple",
+          "ticker": "0xc2db6688c6df422104",
+          "price": 9,
+          "delta": 0,
+          "volume": 39251.967257,
+          "venue": "polymarket",
+          "isAnchor": true
+        },
+        {
+          "title": "Will USD.AI launch a token by ___ ?: April 30, 2026",
+          "ticker": "0x349be0f6283a219826",
+          "price": 97,
+          "delta": -5,
+          "volume": 11285.145936000003,
+          "venue": "polymarket",
+          "isAnchor": true
+        },
+        {
+          "title": "USD.AI FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $500M",
+          "ticker": "0x6c5974b64df0ec88ca",
+          "price": 2,
+          "delta": 0,
+          "volume": 11003.224719000002,
+          "venue": "polymarket",
+          "isAnchor": true
+        },
+        {
+          "title": "SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12: April 30",
+          "ticker": "0x8cc19466564cb36bae",
+          "price": 47,
+          "delta": -8,
+          "volume": 598,
+          "venue": "polymarket",
+          "isAnchor": false
+        }
+      ],
+      "totalChanges": 38
+    }
+  ],
+  "topEdges": [
+    {
+      "title": "Will the 7-day moving average of daily vessel transit calls ",
+      "edge": 85,
+      "direction": "no",
+      "price": 100
+    },
+    {
+      "title": "Will the 7-day moving average of daily vessel transit calls ",
+      "edge": 82,
+      "direction": "no",
+      "price": 97
+    },
+    {
+      "title": "Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hor",
+      "edge": 80,
+      "direction": "yes",
+      "price": 15
+    },
+    {
+      "title": "Will the 7-day moving average of daily vessel transit calls ",
+      "edge": 78,
+      "direction": "yes",
+      "price": 2
+    },
+    {
+      "title": "Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hor",
+      "edge": 75,
+      "direction": "yes",
+      "price": 15
+    }
+  ],
+  "divergences": [
+    {
+      "description": "Energy sector split: some contracts rising while others falling"
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "Stocks and gold both up (SPY +0.81%, GLD +1.82%) \u2014 unusual risk-on + haven bid"
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "Equity-oil divergence: SPY +0.81% vs Oil -2.7%"
+    }
+  ],
+  "markdown": "# World State \u2014 2026-04-02T21:06 UTC\n\nSF Index: Uncertainty 22/100 | Geopolitical Risk 62/100 | Momentum +0.06\n\nMarkets: SPY $655.13 (+0.81%) | VIXY $33.54 (-1.84%) | TLT $86.45 (-0.18%) | GLD $436.88 (+1.82%) | USO $123.39 (-2.7%)\n\n## Geopolitical\n- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?: 10c [polymarket]\n- Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?: 11c [polymarket]\n- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: 55c [polymarket]\n- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?: June 30, 2026: 50c (-6c) [polymarket]\n\n## Economy\n- Fed decision in April?: 50+ bps decrease: 0c [polymarket]\n- Fed decision in April?: No change: 98c [polymarket]\n- Fed decision in April?: 25+ bps increase: 1c [polymarket]\n- How high will inflation get in 2026?: Above 6%: 22c (+8c) [polymarket]\n\n## Energy\n- EPL \u2013 Which Clubs Get Relegated?: Brentford: 1c [polymarket]\n- Oil: 123.39c (-342c) [traditional]\n- Will average **gas prices** be above $4.080?: 55c (+14c) [kalshi]\n- Will the natural gas close price be above $2.725 on Apr 2, 2026 at 5pm: 59c (+59c) [kalshi]\n\n## Elections\n- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Mike Pence: 1c [polymarket]\n- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028: Raphael Warnock: 1c [polymarket]\n- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028: Jon Ossoff: 5c [polymarket]\n- Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?: Pam Bondi: 100c (+46c) [polymarket]\n\n## Crypto\n- What will happen before GTA VI?: Bitcoin hits $1m: 49c [polymarket]\n- Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?: 5c [polymarket]\n- Crypto Twitter mindshare ATH by March 31, 2026?: Sisyphus: 100c [polymarket]\n- Crypto Twitter mindshare ATH by March 31, 2026?: Proph3t: 96c (+56c) [polymarket]\n\n## Tech\n- Largest Company end of June?: Apple: 9c [polymarket]\n- Will USD.AI launch a token by ___ ?: April 30, 2026: 97c (-5c) [polymarket]\n- USD.AI FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $500M: 2c [polymarket]\n- SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12: April 30: 47c (-8c) [polymarket]\n\n## Mispriced (top edges)\n- Will the 7-day moving average of daily vessel transit calls : 100c, model says no (85c edge)\n- Will the 7-day moving average of daily vessel transit calls : 97c, model says no (82c edge)\n- Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hor: 15c, model says yes (80c edge)\n\n## Divergence Alerts\n- Energy sector split: some contracts rising while others falling\n- Stocks and gold both up (SPY +0.81%, GLD +1.82%) \u2014 unusual risk-on + haven bid\n- Equity-oil divergence: SPY +0.81% vs Oil -2.7%\n\n---\nSource: SimpleFunctions World Model \u2014 9,706 markets, calibrated by real money | simplefunctions.dev\nDrill down: GET /api/public/query?q=TOPIC | /api/public/market/TICKER | /api/public/contagion",
+  "markdownTokenEstimate": 667
+}

README.md

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+---
+license: mit
+task_categories:
+  - question-answering
+  - text-generation
+language:
+  - en
+tags:
+  - prediction-markets
+  - world-model
+  - real-time-data
+  - ai-agents
+  - geopolitics
+  - economics
+  - calibrated-probabilities
+  - kalshi
+  - polymarket
+size_categories:
+  - n<1K
+pretty_name: World State Daily Snapshots
+---
+
+# World State Daily Snapshots
+
+Daily snapshots of the world's state as measured by prediction markets. Each snapshot contains calibrated probabilities for geopolitics, economy, energy, elections, crypto, and tech — derived from 9,706 contracts on Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) and Polymarket.
+
+## Why This Dataset Exists
+
+LLMs have a knowledge cutoff. This dataset provides ground truth for what the world looked like on any given day — not from news (narratives) or surveys (opinions), but from prediction markets where participants risk real money. Get it wrong, lose money.
+
+Use cases:
+- **Agent evaluation**: Test whether your agent can accurately answer "what's the recession probability?" on a given date
+- **Training data**: Fine-tune models with calibrated world state data
+- **Research**: Analyze how prediction market probabilities evolve over time
+- **Backtesting**: Validate agent decisions against historical world state
+
+## Schema
+
+Each daily JSON file contains:
+
+```json
+{
+  "date": "2026-04-02",
+  "timestamp": "2026-04-02T20:56:00Z",
+  "index": {
+    "uncertainty": 22,
+    "geopolitical": 62,
+    "momentum": 0.06
+  },
+  "traditional": [
+    {"symbol": "SPY", "price": 655.13, "changePct": 0.81}
+  ],
+  "topics": [
+    {
+      "name": "Geopolitical",
+      "movers": [
+        {"title": "Iran invasion probability", "price": 53, "delta": 5, "volume": 225000, "venue": "kalshi"}
+      ]
+    }
+  ],
+  "topEdges": [
+    {"title": "Market X", "edge": 15, "direction": "yes", "price": 35}
+  ],
+  "divergences": [
+    {"description": "Stocks and gold both up — unusual risk-on + haven bid"}
+  ],
+  "markdown": "# World State — ...",
+  "markdownTokenEstimate": 667
+}
+```
+
+## Fields
+
+| Field | Description |
+|-------|-------------|
+| `index.uncertainty` | Market uncertainty (0-100), derived from orderbook spreads |
+| `index.geopolitical` | Geopolitical risk (0-100), from geo-related market velocity |
+| `index.momentum` | Directional market bias (-1 to +1) |
+| `traditional` | SPY, VIX, TLT, GLD, USO prices and daily change |
+| `topics` | 6 categories with anchor contracts and significant movers |
+| `topEdges` | Largest mispricings detected by thesis models |
+| `divergences` | Cross-market anomalies (e.g., stocks and gold both rising) |
+| `markdown` | Raw markdown output (~800 tokens, ready for LLM injection) |
+
+## Data Source
+
+[SimpleFunctions](https://simplefunctions.dev/world) — aggregates 9,706 prediction market contracts from Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) and Polymarket. Updated every 15 minutes. The daily snapshot captures the final state of each day.
+
+## Live API
+
+For real-time data (not just daily snapshots):
+
+```python
+pip install simplefunctions-ai
+
+from simplefunctions import world, delta
+print(world())           # current state (~800 tokens)
+print(delta(since="1h")) # what changed (~30-50 tokens)
+```
+
+## Citation
+
+```bibtex
+@dataset{simplefunctions_world_state_2026,
+  title={World State Daily Snapshots: Calibrated Probabilities from Prediction Markets},
+  author={SimpleFunctions},
+  year={2026},
+  url={https://huggingface.co/datasets/SimpleFunctions/world-state-daily},
+  note={Daily snapshots from 9,706 prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket}
+}
+```
+
+## License
+
+MIT