Add world state snapshot for 2026-05-04

2026-05-04.json

@@ -0,0 +1,123 @@
+{
+  "date": "2026-05-04",
+  "timestamp": "2026-05-04T23:50:46.446Z",
+  "index": {
+    "disagreement": 43,
+    "geoRisk": 33,
+    "breadth": 0.34,
+    "activity": 17
+  },
+  "traditional": [
+    {
+      "symbol": "SPY",
+      "price": 720.1,
+      "changePct": 1.04
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "QQQ",
+      "price": 673.11,
+      "changePct": 0.84
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IWM",
+      "price": 278.72,
+      "changePct": 0.07
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "VIXY",
+      "price": 27.37,
+      "changePct": 0.81
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "SHY",
+      "price": 82.24,
+      "changePct": -0.32
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IEF",
+      "price": 94.76,
+      "changePct": -0.22
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "TLT",
+      "price": 85.67,
+      "changePct": -0.3
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "HYG",
+      "price": 80.07,
+      "changePct": -0.36
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "GLD",
+      "price": 423.57,
+      "changePct": 1.47
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "USO",
+      "price": 143.43,
+      "changePct": -2.49
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "UNG",
+      "price": 10.71,
+      "changePct": 0.99
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "CPER",
+      "price": 36.24,
+      "changePct": -0.77
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "UUP",
+      "price": 27.42,
+      "changePct": 0.18
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "FXE",
+      "price": 108.12,
+      "changePct": -0.18
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "XLE",
+      "price": 58.83,
+      "changePct": -1.33
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "EEM",
+      "price": 64.21,
+      "changePct": 0.38
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IBIT",
+      "price": 44.17,
+      "changePct": 1.84
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "ETHE",
+      "price": 18.72,
+      "changePct": 2.02
+    }
+  ],
+  "topics": [],
+  "topEdges": [],
+  "divergences": [
+    {
+      "description": "Dogecoin price? lagging What will the average monthly Ethereu… — 74¢ gap [Crypto]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "Arkansas Senate Election Winner overshooting NJ-05 House Election Winner — 49¢ gap [US Elections]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "Who will dissent at the June FOMC? overshooting Reserve Bank of Australia Maintain cu… — 28¢ gap [Fed / monetary policy]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    }
+  ],
+  "markdown": "# World (2026-05-04 23:41 UTC)\nRegime: Broad up-skew — markets resolving toward higher probability\nSF Index: Disagree 43 | GeoRisk 33 | Breadth +0.34 | Activity 17\nBaseline: last 12h\n\n## [divergence] Dogecoin price? lagging What will the average monthly Ethereu… — 74¢ gap [Crypto]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027?: 15 Gwei\",\"Δ\":\"-31c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Dogecoin price  on May 8, 2026?: $0.1 or above\",\"Δ\":\"6c\"}\n- gap: 74\n- theme: Crypto\n- triggerTicker: 0xe32a73414fb99afa84e4a56141e20dd4f3d3e1a3d1d266bb0360ac7e1c0c6063\n- laggingTicker: KXDOGED-26MAY0817-T0.0999999\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-pn3hsd`\n  → What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027?: 15 Gwei spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [divergence] Arkansas Senate Election Winner overshooting NJ-05 House Election Winner — 49¢ gap [US Elections]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"NJ-05 House Election Winner: Democratic Party\",\"Δ\":\"-34c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Arkansas Senate Election Winner: Democrat\",\"Δ\":\"42c\"}\n- gap: -49\n- theme: US Elections\n- triggerTicker: 0xeb7cd255b205bb461833be1149d246c42044c737c287028292250a09076289b5\n- laggingTicker: 0xfd583ce731a731f6500cf5427090f1e708ec102140146200306b56c489ed4364\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-ozx5n`\n  → NJ-05 House Election Winner: Democratic Party spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [divergence] Who will dissent at the June FOMC? overshooting Reserve Bank of Australia Maintain cu… — 28¢ gap [Fed / monetary policy]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Will the Reserve Bank of Australia Maintain current rate at the June Reserve Ban\",\"Δ\":\"-62c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Who will dissent at the June 2026 FOMC meeting?: Neel Kashkari\",\"Δ\":\"20c\"}\n- gap: -28\n- theme: Fed / monetary policy\n- triggerTicker: KXCBDECISIONAUSTRALIA-26JUN16-HOLD\n- laggingTicker: KXFEDDISSENT-26JUN-NEEL\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-ppeycm`\n  → Will the Reserve Bank of Australia Maintain current rate at the June Reserve Ban spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [consensus_break] BNB price?: 6 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 93¢)\n- seriesKey: KXBNBD\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXBNBD-26MAY0517-T529.99\",\"title\":\"BNB price  on May 5, 2026?: $530 or above\",\"price\":3},{\"ticker\":\"KXBNBD-26MAY0517-T534.99\",\"title\":\"BNB price  on May 5, 2026?: $5...\n- dispersion: 44\n- range: 93\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-anghki`\n\n## [consensus_break] James Bialota be the Republican nominee for …: 3 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 92¢)\n- seriesKey: KXSDPRIMARY\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXSDPRIMARY-ALR26-MJAC\",\"title\":\"Will Marty Jackley be the Republican nominee for SD-AL?: Marty Jackley\",\"price\":95},{\"ticker\":\"KXSDPRIMARY-ALR26-JBIA\",\"title\":\"Will...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 92\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-jf3zpp`\n\n## [consensus_break] Lindsay James be the Democratic nominee for …: 9 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 92¢)\n- seriesKey: KXIAPRIMARY\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXIAPRIMARY-04D26-DDAW\",\"title\":\"Will David Dawson be the Democratic nominee for IA-04?: David Dawson\",\"price\":86},{\"ticker\":\"KXIAPRIMARY-04D26-SSTE\",\"title\":\"Will S...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 92\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-is0mhy`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% no in 4h — Lewis Hamilton wear Dior at Met Gala Red Car…\n- ticker: KXMETGALAFITS-26MAY05-LEW-DIO\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will Lewis Hamilton wear Dior at Met Gala 2026 Red Carpet?: Dior\n- price: 5\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.05\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXMETGALAFITS-26MAY05-LEW-DIO`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXMETGALAFITS-26MAY05-LEW-DIO`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% no in 4h — Lewis Hamilton wear Saint Laurent at Met Gal…\n- ticker: KXMETGALAFITS-26MAY05-LEW-SAI\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will Lewis Hamilton wear Saint Laurent at Met Gala 2026 Red Carpet?: Saint Laurent\n- price: 5\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.05\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXMETGALAFITS-26MAY05-LEW-SAI`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXMETGALAFITS-26MAY05-LEW-SAI`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% no in 4h — Top Global Netflix Show?: Running Point\n- ticker: KXNETFLIXRANKSHOWGLOBAL-26MAY04-RUN\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Top Global Netflix Show on May 4, 2026?: Running Point: Season 2\n- price: 5\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.05\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXNETFLIXRANKSHOWGLOBAL-26MAY04-RUN`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXNETFLIXRANKSHOWGLOBAL-26MAY04-RUN`\n\n## [novel] NEW 1h @ 1¢ — Casey Putsch be the Republican nominee for Govern…\n- ticker: KXGOVOHNOMR-26-CPUT\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will Casey Putsch be the Republican nominee for Governor in Ohio?: Casey Putsch\n- listedAgoHours: 1\n- currentPrice: 1\n- volume24h: 174495\n- note: listedAt = Kalshi open_time (proxy for created_at)\n  → similar prior · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXGOVOHNOMR-26-CPUT`\n  → topic path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=24h`\n\n## Zoom\n- **Iran** — 207 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/iran`\n- **Oil & Energy** — 361 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/oil`\n- **Fed & Rates** — 1203 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/fed-rate`\n- **Recession** — 667 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/recession`\n- **2026 Elections** — 2910 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/election-2026`\n- **Crypto** — 1409 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/bitcoin`\n- **Ukraine/Russia** — 281 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/ukraine`\n- **China/Taiwan** — 269 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/china`\n\n---\nPath: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world\nOp: snapshot · Generated in 4557ms",
+  "markdownTokenEstimate": 1848
+}