Add world state snapshot for 2026-05-09

2026-05-09.json

@@ -0,0 +1,123 @@
+{
+  "date": "2026-05-09",
+  "timestamp": "2026-05-09T23:50:02.389Z",
+  "index": {
+    "disagreement": 38,
+    "geoRisk": 20,
+    "breadth": 0.52,
+    "activity": 14
+  },
+  "traditional": [
+    {
+      "symbol": "SPY",
+      "price": 737.83,
+      "changePct": 1.05
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "QQQ",
+      "price": 711.23,
+      "changePct": 2.54
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IWM",
+      "price": 284.34,
+      "changePct": 0.81
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "VIXY",
+      "price": 27.03,
+      "changePct": 0.37
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "SHY",
+      "price": 82.3,
+      "changePct": 0.09
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IEF",
+      "price": 94.96,
+      "changePct": 0.24
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "TLT",
+      "price": 86.06,
+      "changePct": 0.31
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "HYG",
+      "price": 80.13,
+      "changePct": 0.3
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "GLD",
+      "price": 433.84,
+      "changePct": 0.5
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "USO",
+      "price": 133.6,
+      "changePct": -2.51
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "UNG",
+      "price": 10.59,
+      "changePct": -0.89
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "CPER",
+      "price": 38.26,
+      "changePct": 2.46
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "UUP",
+      "price": 27.33,
+      "changePct": -0.27
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "FXE",
+      "price": 108.69,
+      "changePct": 0.37
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "XLE",
+      "price": 55.67,
+      "changePct": -0.52
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "EEM",
+      "price": 68,
+      "changePct": 2.09
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IBIT",
+      "price": 45.41,
+      "changePct": 0.22
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "ETHE",
+      "price": 18.77,
+      "changePct": 0.91
+    }
+  ],
+  "topics": [],
+  "topEdges": [],
+  "divergences": [
+    {
+      "description": "CA-14 Special Election Winner? lagging margin of victory for Democrats in th… — 39¢ gap [US Elections]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "What chain will the NYSE choose for t… overshooting Dogecoin price? — 36¢ gap [Crypto]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "What will the average monthly Ethereu… overshooting WTI front-month settle oil price be >… — 30¢ gap [Oil & energy]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    }
+  ],
+  "markdown": "# World (2026-05-09 23:40 UTC)\nRegime: Broad up-skew — markets resolving toward higher probability\nSimpleFunctions Index: Disagree 38 | GeoRisk 20 | Breadth +0.52 | Activity 0\nBaseline: last 12h\n\n## [divergence] CA-14 Special Election Winner? lagging margin of victory for Democrats in th… — 39¢ gap [US Elections]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Arizona's 1st District House ele\",\"Δ\":\"29c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"CA-14 Special Election Winner?: Carin Elam\",\"Δ\":\"8c\"}\n- gap: 39\n- theme: US Elections\n- triggerTicker: KXMIDTERMMOV-AZ01D-P2\n- laggingTicker: 0x95283f33fee7c635fb337621ece148b6f7cd5d3d9391b463a06d62bcd1f8b562\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-iz8qqv`\n  → Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Arizona's 1st District House ele spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [divergence] What chain will the NYSE choose for t… overshooting Dogecoin price? — 36¢ gap [Crypto]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Dogecoin price  on May 15, 2026?: $0.105 or above\",\"Δ\":\"-53c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"What chain will the NYSE choose for tokenized securities?: Solana\",\"Δ\":\"44c\"}\n- gap: -36\n- theme: Crypto\n- triggerTicker: KXDOGED-26MAY1517-T0.1049999\n- laggingTicker: 0x3bd95a08679a57cbfe5ad3934cee732da4f4e83e279d226479ac7bcb4e88c26a\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-ee9qe`\n  → Dogecoin price  on May 15, 2026?: $0.105 or above spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [divergence] What will the average monthly Ethereu… overshooting WTI front-month settle oil price be >… — 30¢ gap [Oil & energy]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Will the WTI front-month settle oil price  be >74.99 on Nov 3, 2026?: $75 or abo\",\"Δ\":\"-48c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027?: 10 Gwei\",\"Δ\":\"50c\"}\n- gap: -30\n- theme: Oil & energy\n- triggerTicker: KXWTI-26NOV03-T74.99\n- laggingTicker: 0x9cd09f37da8da9995d5bdba7b386b89e09dd5dcfed0f001f1ce5dfa7d3cfd76a\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-g0rof2`\n  → Will the WTI front-month settle oil price  be >74.99 on Nov 3, 2026?: $75 or abo spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [consensus_break] Italy inflation rate YoY for April be above …: 8 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 94¢)\n- seriesKey: KXITCPIPREL\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXITCPIPREL-26MAY15-T2.4\",\"title\":\"Will Italy inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 2.4%?: Above 2.4%\",\"price\":97},{\"ticker\":\"KXITCPIPREL-26MAY15-T2.5\",\"title\":...\n- dispersion: 44\n- range: 94\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-ji4oc6`\n\n## [consensus_break] Freddie Mac IPO Closing Market Cap: 3 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 92¢)\n- seriesKey: 48296\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"0xadde95f8ee376bb6b7ed5eab9444e3708487af8c9b39bee3bfe2acf1d9237b8d\",\"title\":\"Freddie Mac IPO Closing Market Cap: 150–200B\",\"price\":3},{\"ticker\":\"0xba31e7d0841fa9ef09...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 92\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-6ulwtw`\n\n## [consensus_break] James Bialota be the Republican nominee for …: 3 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 92¢)\n- seriesKey: KXSDPRIMARY\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXSDPRIMARY-ALR26-MJAC\",\"title\":\"Will Marty Jackley be the Republican nominee for SD-AL?: Marty Jackley\",\"price\":95},{\"ticker\":\"KXSDPRIMARY-ALR26-JBIA\",\"title\":\"Will...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 92\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-jf3zpp`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 93% no in 4h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASD-26MAY10-4.525\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $4.525?: Above 4.525\n- price: 7\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.07\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASD-26MAY10-4.525`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASD-26MAY10-4.525`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% no in 14h — Trump endorse at least 3 people on Truth Soc…\n- ticker: KXTRUMPENDORSEMENTS-26MAY09-A3\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will Trump endorse at least 3 people on Truth Social this week?: At least 3\n- price: 5\n- settlesInHours: 14\n- impliedProbability: 0.05\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXTRUMPENDORSEMENTS-26MAY09-A3`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXTRUMPENDORSEMENTS-26MAY09-A3`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% yes in 21h — SOL price?\n- ticker: KXSOLD-26MAY1017-T89.9999\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: SOL price  on May 10, 2026?: $90 or above\n- price: 95\n- settlesInHours: 21\n- impliedProbability: 0.95\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXSOLD-26MAY1017-T89.9999`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXSOLD-26MAY1017-T89.9999`\n\n## [residual] 1.4σ volume @ 21¢ — Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their Septe…\n- ticker: KXFEDDECISION-26SEP-C25\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their September 2026 meeting?: Cut 25bps\n- price: 21\n- residualVr: 1.44\n- vr: 2.44\n- volume24h: 784.94\n  → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-edsk39`\n  → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXFEDDECISION-26SEP-C25`\n  → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXFEDDECISION-26SEP-C25`\n\n## Zoom\n- **Iran** — 209 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/iran`\n- **Oil & Energy** — 421 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/oil`\n- **Fed & Rates** — 1241 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/fed-rate`\n- **Recession** — 626 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/recession`\n- **2026 Elections** — 2926 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/election-2026`\n- **Crypto** — 985 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/bitcoin`\n- **Ukraine/Russia** — 280 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/ukraine`\n- **China/Taiwan** — 310 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/china`\n\n---\nPath: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world\nOp: snapshot · Generated in 0ms",
+  "markdownTokenEstimate": 1844
+}