Add world state snapshot for 2026-04-23

2026-04-23.json

@@ -0,0 +1,123 @@
+{
+  "date": "2026-04-23",
+  "timestamp": "2026-04-23T23:50:16.390Z",
+  "index": {
+    "disagreement": 43,
+    "geoRisk": 29,
+    "breadth": 0.3,
+    "activity": 100
+  },
+  "traditional": [
+    {
+      "symbol": "SPY",
+      "price": 710.36,
+      "changePct": 0.52
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "QQQ",
+      "price": 656.15,
+      "changePct": 1.41
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IWM",
+      "price": 275.97,
+      "changePct": 0
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "VIXY",
+      "price": 28.52,
+      "changePct": -1.18
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "SHY",
+      "price": 82.52,
+      "changePct": -0.02
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IEF",
+      "price": 95.5,
+      "changePct": -0.06
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "TLT",
+      "price": 86.7,
+      "changePct": -0.06
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "HYG",
+      "price": 80.49,
+      "changePct": 0.21
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "GLD",
+      "price": 435,
+      "changePct": 0.59
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "USO",
+      "price": 129.56,
+      "changePct": 3.02
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "UNG",
+      "price": 10.93,
+      "changePct": -0.18
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "CPER",
+      "price": 37.59,
+      "changePct": 2.82
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "UUP",
+      "price": 27.49,
+      "changePct": 0.11
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "FXE",
+      "price": 108.02,
+      "changePct": -0.16
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "XLE",
+      "price": 56.53,
+      "changePct": 1.2
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "EEM",
+      "price": 63.39,
+      "changePct": 1.2
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IBIT",
+      "price": 44.48,
+      "changePct": 3.61
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "ETHE",
+      "price": 19.49,
+      "changePct": 4.45
+    }
+  ],
+  "topics": [],
+  "topEdges": [],
+  "divergences": [
+    {
+      "description": "Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by...? overshooting Russia capture Kindrativka by...? — 46¢ gap [Ukraine / Russia conflict]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "Bank of England Maintain current rate… lagging Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...? — 16¢ gap [Fed / monetary policy]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "Stocks + gold both up: SPY +0.5%, GLD +0.6% — risk-on + haven bid",
+      "implication": "liquidity-driven rally or inflation hedge — watch reversal",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    }
+  ],
+  "markdown": "# World (2026-04-23 23:45 UTC)\nRegime: Steady — no dominant macro signal\nSF Index: Disagree 43 | GeoRisk 29 | Breadth +0.30 | Activity 100\nBaseline: last 12h\n\n## [divergence] Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by...? overshooting Russia capture Kindrativka by...? — 46¢ gap [Ukraine / Russia conflict]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Will Russia capture Kindrativka by...?: May 31\",\"Δ\":\"-23c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by...?: May 31\",\"Δ\":\"63c\"}\n- gap: -46\n- theme: Ukraine / Russia conflict\n- triggerTicker: 0x82b1b23cde12ef055f59302b09422c9d630b1ed46449ab04022f8a8e71425c84\n- laggingTicker: 0x684d40a53315c9db4564f3cbb2bc1451086a29a00c2682ef87b2b004765e145a\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-wlccwi`\n  → Will Russia capture Kindrativka by...?: May 31 spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [consensus_break] RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above?: 38 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 93¢)\n- seriesKey: KXRTX5090MON\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXRTX5090MON-26APR30-0.293\",\"title\":\"Will the RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $0.293 on Apr 30?: Above $0.29\",\"price\":96},{\"ticker\":\"KXRTX5090MON-26APR30-0....\n- dispersion: 44\n- range: 93\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-qbdlvs`\n\n## [consensus_break] BNB price?: 13 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 94¢)\n- seriesKey: KXBNBD\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXBNBD-26APR2417-T509.99\",\"title\":\"BNB price  on Apr 24, 2026?: $510 or above\",\"price\":92},{\"ticker\":\"KXBNBD-26APR2417-T514.99\",\"title\":\"BNB price  on Apr 24, 2026?:...\n- dispersion: 44\n- range: 94\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-anghki`\n\n## [consensus_break] Republicans win the Senate race in Colorado?: 4 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 90¢)\n- seriesKey: SENATECO\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"SENATECO-28-D\",\"title\":\"Will Democratics win the Senate race in Colorado?: Democratic party\",\"price\":87},{\"ticker\":\"SENATECO-28-R\",\"title\":\"Will Republicans win the ...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 90\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-gn87t`\n\n## [divergence] Bank of England Maintain current rate… lagging Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...? — 16¢ gap [Fed / monetary policy]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?: May 31\",\"Δ\":\"17c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Will the Bank of England Maintain current rate at the April Bank of England Mone\",\"Δ\":\"76c\"}\n- gap: 16\n- theme: Fed / monetary policy\n- triggerTicker: 0x77f4da92e95343c2debdc8cc0ea577d0065f63f566974bc41152548b7af068fc\n- laggingTicker: KXCBDECISIONENGLAND-26APR30-HOLD\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-43welo`\n  → Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?: May 31 spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% no in 6h — United Kingdom retail sales MoM for March be…\n- ticker: KXUKRETAIL-26APR24-T2.5\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will United Kingdom retail sales MoM for March 2026 be above 2.5%?: Above 2.5%\n- price: 5\n- settlesInHours: 6\n- impliedProbability: 0.05\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXUKRETAIL-26APR24-T2.5`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXUKRETAIL-26APR24-T2.5`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 94% no in 4h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASD-26APR24-4.065\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $4.065?: Above 4.065\n- price: 6\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.06\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASD-26APR24-4.065`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASD-26APR24-4.065`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% no in 11h — Bank of Russia Cut more than 50bps at the Ap…\n- ticker: KXCBDECISIONRUSSIA-26APR24-C50P\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will the Bank of Russia Cut more than 50bps at the April Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ key rate meeting?: Cut more than 50bps\n- price: 5\n- settlesInHours: 11\n- impliedProbability: 0.05\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXCBDECISIONRUSSIA-26APR24-C50P`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXCBDECISIONRUSSIA-26APR24-C50P`\n\n## [novel] NEW 4h @ 1¢ — margin of victory for No in the Virginia redistri…\n- ticker: KXMOVVAREDISTRICT-26APR21-NO-P1\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be between 0% and 3%?: No, 0-3%\n- listedAgoHours: 4\n- currentPrice: 1\n- volume24h: 256592\n- note: listedAt = Kalshi open_time (proxy for created_at)\n  → similar prior · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXMOVVAREDISTRICT-26APR21-NO-P1`\n  → topic path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=24h`\n\n## [divergence] Stocks + gold both up: SPY +0.5%, GLD +0.6% — risk-on + haven bid\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"SPY\",\"Δ\":\"+0.5%\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"GLD\",\"Δ\":\"+0.6%\"}\n- hypothesis: liquidity-driven rally or inflation hedge — watch reversal\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-406uze`\n  → SPY spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## Zoom\n- **Iran** — 278 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/iran`\n- **Oil & Energy** — 445 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/oil`\n- **Fed & Rates** — 1249 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/fed-rate`\n- **Recession** — 687 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/recession`\n- **2026 Elections** — 2829 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/election-2026`\n- **Crypto** — 1219 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/bitcoin`\n- **Ukraine/Russia** — 324 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/ukraine`\n- **China/Taiwan** — 450 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/china`\n\n---\nPath: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world\nOp: snapshot · Generated in 4032ms",
+  "markdownTokenEstimate": 1791
+}