Backfill world state snapshot for 2026-04-16

2026-04-16.json

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+{
+  "date": "2026-04-16",
+  "timestamp": "2026-04-16T23:59:13.982Z",
+  "index": {
+    "breadth": 0.36,
+    "geoRisk": 49,
+    "activity": 29,
+    "disagreement": 35
+  },
+  "traditional": [
+    {
+      "price": 699.61,
+      "symbol": "SPY",
+      "changePct": 0.78
+    },
+    {
+      "price": 638.44,
+      "symbol": "QQQ",
+      "changePct": 1.46
+    },
+    {
+      "price": 269.41,
+      "symbol": "IWM",
+      "changePct": 0.28
+    },
+    {
+      "price": 28.39,
+      "symbol": "VIXY",
+      "changePct": 0.69
+    },
+    {
+      "price": 82.51,
+      "symbol": "SHY",
+      "changePct": -0.02
+    },
+    {
+      "price": 95.59,
+      "symbol": "IEF",
+      "changePct": -0.23
+    },
+    {
+      "price": 86.83,
+      "symbol": "TLT",
+      "changePct": -0.5
+    },
+    {
+      "price": 80.44,
+      "symbol": "HYG",
+      "changePct": -0.03
+    },
+    {
+      "price": 441,
+      "symbol": "GLD",
+      "changePct": -0.93
+    },
+    {
+      "price": 122.64,
+      "symbol": "USO",
+      "changePct": -1.23
+    },
+    {
+      "price": 10.58,
+      "symbol": "UNG",
+      "changePct": 0.38
+    },
+    {
+      "price": 37.27,
+      "symbol": "CPER",
+      "changePct": -0.03
+    },
+    {
+      "price": 27.29,
+      "symbol": "UUP",
+      "changePct": -0.09
+    },
+    {
+      "price": 108.93,
+      "symbol": "FXE",
+      "changePct": 0.07
+    },
+    {
+      "price": 55.77,
+      "symbol": "XLE",
+      "changePct": -0.28
+    },
+    {
+      "price": 62.23,
+      "symbol": "EEM",
+      "changePct": 0.06
+    },
+    {
+      "price": 42.45,
+      "symbol": "IBIT",
+      "changePct": 1.02
+    },
+    {
+      "price": 19.3,
+      "symbol": "ETHE",
+      "changePct": 2.33
+    }
+  ],
+  "topics": [],
+  "topEdges": [],
+  "divergences": [
+    {
+      "description": "Energy sector split: some contracts rising while others falling",
+      "implication": "Market uncertainty on energy direction — watch for resolution catalyst",
+      "affectedTickers": [
+        "USO",
+        "KXNATGASMON-26APR3017-T1.699",
+        "KXNATGASMON-26APR3017-T1.999"
+      ]
+    }
+  ],
+  "markdown": "# World — Apr 16, 2026\nRegime: Broad up-skew — more markets resolving toward higher implied probability\n\nSF Index v2: Disagree 35/100 | GeoRisk 49/100 | Breadth +0.36 | Activity 29/100\n\nMarkets: SPY $699.61 (+0.78%) | QQQ $638.44 (+1.46%) | IWM $269.41 (+0.28%) | VIXY $28.39 (+0.69%) | SHY $82.51 (-0.02%) | IEF $95.59 (-0.23%) | TLT $86.83 (-0.5%) | HYG $80.44 (-0.03%) | GLD $441.00 (-0.93%) | USO $122.64 (-1.23%) | UNG $10.58 (+0.38%) | CPER $37.27 (-0.03%) | UUP $27.29 (-0.09%) | FXE $108.93 (+0.07%) | XLE $55.77 (-0.28%) | EEM $62.23 (+0.06%) | IBIT $42.45 (+1.02%) | ETHE $19.30 (+2.33%)\n\n## Opportunities\n- [activity] Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Apr 28,: 41c (residualVR 16.2, IAR 1.3/h, v:$186) [kalshi]\n- [contagion] Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?: June 30: overreacting to How many senators will vote for Trump's  (33c gap) [Fed / monetary policy]\n- [yield] What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 25,000: 13c (IY 943%, τ 259d, v:$8k) [polymarket]\n- [contagion] Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?: May 31: overreacting to How many senators will vote for Trump's  (32c gap) [Fed / monetary policy]\n- [yield] Will Vladimir Putin leave President of Russia before Jan 1, 2027?: Vladimir Putin: 13c (IY 939%, τ 260d, v:$540 expires:Jan01) [kalshi]\n\n## Movers /24h\n- Cruzeiro EC vs. CD Universidad Católica: CD Universidad Católica: 91c (+85c/24h, v:$53k) [polymarket]\n- Racing Club vs. Botafogo FR: Botafogo FR: 88c (+81c/24h, v:$29k) [polymarket]\n\nAnchors: Peru Presidential Election Winner: Rafae 12c | Peru Presidential Election Winner: Rober 21c | Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?: Apr 100c | Peru Presidential Election First Round:  24c | Peru Presidential Election Winner: Keiko 66c | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to norm 28c\n\n## Contagion\n- Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?: June 30 overreacting to How many senators will vote for Trump's Fed chair nominee?: 54 (33c gap) [theme:Fed / monetary policy]\n- Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?: June 30 overreacting to Who will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?: Lisa Murkowski (33c gap) [theme:Fed / monetary policy]\n- Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?: May 31 overreacting to How many senators will vote for Trump's Fed chair nominee?: 54 (32c gap) [theme:Fed / monetary policy]\n- Will Italy inflation rate YoY prel for April 2026 be above 1.6%?: Above 1.6% overreacting to Will Italy inflation rate YoY prel for April 2026 be above 1.9%?: Above 1.9% (60c gap) [event:KXITCPIPREL-26APR30]\n- Will Euro area inflation rate YoY flash for April 2026 be above 2.2%?: Above 2.2 overreacting to Will Euro area inflation rate YoY flash for April 2026 be above 2.7%?: Above 2.7 (59c gap) [event:KXEZCPIYOYF-26APR30]\n\n## Divergences\n- Energy sector split: some contracts rising while others falling\n  Market uncertainty on energy direction — watch for resolution catalyst\n\n---\nSource: SimpleFunctions — 45899 markets, calibrated by real money | simplefunctions.dev\nNext: inspect any ticker above → GET /api/agent/inspect/{ticker} (returns suggestion + pre-filled actions)\nMore: /api/public/ideas | /api/public/screen | /api/public/contagion\nOpinions: /api/public/theses (analyst thesis edges — not included in opportunities)\nSections: ?include=legislative (policy markets + bill status) | ?include=contagion (sibling gaps)",
+  "markdownTokenEstimate": 842,
+  "backfilled": true
+}