---
license: cc-by-4.0
language:
- en
pretty_name: Settled Prediction Markets
tags:
- prediction-markets
- calibration
- kalshi
- polymarket
- forecasting
- brier
source_datasets:
- original
---

# Settled Prediction Markets

Monthly JSONL partitions of every prediction market that settled on Kalshi or Polymarket with meaningful volume (> $10K). Each row: venue, ticker, title, predicted price (final + t-24h), resolved outcome (0/1), resolved timestamp, category. Ideal for calibration analysis and forecasting research.

## License and Use

This dataset is released under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
(CC-BY-4.0; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). You may use it
freely for personal, research, educational, and commercial purposes — including
training, evaluating, and fine-tuning machine-learning models. Attribution is
required when the dataset is redistributed in substantially its original form
or cited in published work; credit as "SimpleFunctions (simplefunctions.dev)".

Additional terms apply: you may not re-host this dataset, in whole or in
substantial part, as an API or service that functionally substitutes for a
SimpleFunctions endpoint. See Terms §13.2 at https://simplefunctions.dev/terms.

Provenance, update cadence, and schema are documented below.

## Update cadence

Daily at 00:10 UTC (current + previous month refreshed; older months immutable).

## Provenance

Source: https://simplefunctions.dev
Generator: SimpleFunctions public data pipeline
Contact: patrick@simplefunctions.dev