Refresh calibration scorecard for 2026-06 (246497 rows)

2026-06.json

@@ -0,0 +1,138 @@
+{
+  "month": "2026-06",
+  "count": 246497,
+  "mean_brier": 0.0138,
+  "mean_log_loss": 0.0565,
+  "by_venue": [
+    {
+      "venue": "kalshi",
+      "count": 153339,
+      "mean_brier": 0.0099,
+      "mean_log_loss": 0.0449
+    },
+    {
+      "venue": "polymarket",
+      "count": 93158,
+      "mean_brier": 0.0203,
+      "mean_log_loss": 0.0756
+    }
+  ],
+  "by_category": [
+    {
+      "category": "Sports",
+      "count": 97946,
+      "mean_brier": 0.0136
+    },
+    {
+      "category": "Crypto",
+      "count": 46502,
+      "mean_brier": 0.0067
+    },
+    {
+      "category": "Up or Down",
+      "count": 26074,
+      "mean_brier": 0.0162
+    },
+    {
+      "category": "Weather",
+      "count": 9438,
+      "mean_brier": 0.0007
+    },
+    {
+      "category": "Mentions",
+      "count": 6824,
+      "mean_brier": 0.0019
+    },
+    {
+      "category": "Climate and Weather",
+      "count": 6555,
+      "mean_brier": 0.0031
+    },
+    {
+      "category": "Crypto Prices",
+      "count": 5885,
+      "mean_brier": 0.0165
+    },
+    {
+      "category": "Tennis",
+      "count": 5410,
+      "mean_brier": 0.0586
+    },
+    {
+      "category": "Esports",
+      "count": 4814,
+      "mean_brier": 0.045
+    },
+    {
+      "category": "Financials",
+      "count": 4615,
+      "mean_brier": 0.0282
+    }
+  ],
+  "calibration_buckets": [
+    {
+      "bucket_lo": 0,
+      "bucket_hi": 0.1,
+      "count": 126473,
+      "actual_rate": 0.0009
+    },
+    {
+      "bucket_lo": 0.1,
+      "bucket_hi": 0.2,
+      "count": 5888,
+      "actual_rate": 0.008
+    },
+    {
+      "bucket_lo": 0.2,
+      "bucket_hi": 0.3,
+      "count": 3909,
+      "actual_rate": 0.0159
+    },
+    {
+      "bucket_lo": 0.3,
+      "bucket_hi": 0.4,
+      "count": 2847,
+      "actual_rate": 0.0313
+    },
+    {
+      "bucket_lo": 0.4,
+      "bucket_hi": 0.5,
+      "count": 2468,
+      "actual_rate": 0.049
+    },
+    {
+      "bucket_lo": 0.5,
+      "bucket_hi": 0.6,
+      "count": 2062,
+      "actual_rate": 0.0849
+    },
+    {
+      "bucket_lo": 0.6,
+      "bucket_hi": 0.7,
+      "count": 928,
+      "actual_rate": 0.2737
+    },
+    {
+      "bucket_lo": 0.7,
+      "bucket_hi": 0.8,
+      "count": 687,
+      "actual_rate": 0.4294
+    },
+    {
+      "bucket_lo": 0.8,
+      "bucket_hi": 0.9,
+      "count": 954,
+      "actual_rate": 0.674
+    },
+    {
+      "bucket_lo": 0.9,
+      "bucket_hi": 1,
+      "count": 100281,
+      "actual_rate": 0.9933
+    }
+  ],
+  "filter": {
+    "min_volume": 100
+  },
+  "generated_at": "2026-07-15T06:50:23.159Z"
+}