"""Macro F0.5 exactly as `ps.pdf` defines it. Per S1 entity: F0.5 = (1.25 * P * R) / (0.25 * P + R) macro-averaged over ALL S1 entities. A singleton (no true match) scores 1.0 for a correct empty prediction and 0.0 for any prediction. Substituting P = TP/k and R = TP/T collapses this to the identity the whole project relies on: F0.5 = 1.25 * TP / (0.25 * T + k) because FP = k - TP and FN = T - TP cancel the TP contributions in the denominator. This is exact, not an approximation. THE BREAK-EVEN EXCHANGE RATE, derived from that identity. With D = 0.25T + k, adding one prediction * gains 1.25 (D - TP) / (D (D+1)) if it is a true positive * loses 1.25 TP / (D (D+1)) if it is a false positive so an extra pair is worth taking only when its TP:FP ratio beats TP / (D - TP) This is an OPERATING-POINT-DEPENDENT number, not a universal constant. In the idealised limit TP -> T and k -> T (so D = 1.25T) it tends to T / 0.25T = 4. At the shipped operating point it is lower: measured mean T = 3.449, mean k = 3.316, mean TP = 3.300 over 20,000 validation entities gives D = 4.178 and a break-even of 3.300 / 0.878 = ~3.8:1. Any batch of pairs added to the prediction set must be better than roughly 3.8-4 true for every 1 false - about 80% precision - or macro F0.5 falls. (An earlier version of this analysis asserted "exactly 4:1". That is only the limiting value; the self-test below checks the formula itself rather than the round number.) Measured on validation, the best band below our threshold offered 1.90:1 (386 TP / 203 FP), and the next best 1.54:1. Both are far under the break-even either way, which is why lowering the threshold could not buy recall, and why any new candidate source has to clear ~80% precision to be worth including at all. """ from __future__ import annotations import numpy as np def entity_f05(pred: set, truth: set) -> float: """F0.5 for one S1 entity. `pred` and `truth` are sets of S2/S3 identifiers.""" k, t = len(pred), len(truth) if t == 0: return 1.0 if k == 0 else 0.0 # singleton: empty is perfect, anything is 0 if k == 0: return 0.0 tp = len(pred & truth) if tp == 0: return 0.0 return 1.25 * tp / (0.25 * t + k) def macro_f05(preds: dict, truths: dict, ids): """Macro F0.5 over `ids`. preds : {entity -> iterable of predicted targets} (missing == predicted empty) truths : {entity -> iterable of true targets} (missing == true singleton) ids : the entity list to average over - MUST be every S1 entity being scored, not just the ones with predictions, or singletons silently vanish from the average. Returns (summary_dict, per_entity_array). """ per = np.empty(len(ids), np.float64) tp_sum = k_sum = t_sum = 0 for i, q in enumerate(ids): p = preds.get(q) or () t = truths.get(q) or () p = p if isinstance(p, set) else set(p) t = t if isinstance(t, set) else set(t) per[i] = entity_f05(p, t) tp_sum += len(p & t) k_sum += len(p) t_sum += len(t) return { "f05": float(per.mean()) if len(per) else 0.0, "precision": (tp_sum / k_sum) if k_sum else 0.0, # pooled, for diagnosis only "recall": (tp_sum / t_sum) if t_sum else 0.0, "n": len(ids), "tp": tp_sum, "k": k_sum, "t": t_sum, "pred_per_entity": (k_sum / len(ids)) if len(ids) else 0.0, }, per def entity_scores(preds: dict, truths: dict, ids): return macro_f05(preds, truths, ids)[1] def slice_report(preds: dict, truths: dict, ids, by: dict, label="slice"): """Macro F0.5 broken out by an arbitrary per-entity key (country, singleton flag, ...). Model-1's contribution to the project was that slice-level reporting is where the real failures show up: the shipped run scored us 0.9832 / india 0.9806 on validation while France - which has no labels at all - came out at an implied 0.946. """ groups: dict = {} for q in ids: groups.setdefault(by.get(q, "?"), []).append(q) rows = [] for key in sorted(groups, key=str): g = groups[key] m, _ = macro_f05(preds, truths, g) rows.append({label: key, "n": len(g), "f05": m["f05"], "precision": m["precision"], "recall": m["recall"], "pred_per_entity": m["pred_per_entity"]}) return rows def oracle_f05(candidates: dict, truths: dict, ids): """Best macro F0.5 reachable from a candidate set: predict truth AND candidates, and predict empty for genuine singletons. THE CEILING THAT MATTERS. Measured on the shipped candidates this was 0.9942 against a shipped 0.9821 - so the scorer lost 0.0121 and blocking lost 0.0058. Model-5 s25 is right that you must never optimise the decision layer while this number is the bottleneck. Note the distinction Model-5 s33 rule 9 insists on: this is NOT pair recall. Pair recall on the same candidates was 0.9824, which is a different and much less useful number. """ preds = {} for q in ids: hit = set(candidates.get(q) or ()) & set(truths.get(q) or ()) if hit: preds[q] = hit return macro_f05(preds, truths, ids) def pair_recall(candidates: dict, truths: dict, ids): """Fraction of true pairs present in the candidate set, plus per-entity coverage rates.""" got = tot = 0 all_present = 0 n_nonsing = 0 for q in ids: t = set(truths.get(q) or ()) if not t: continue n_nonsing += 1 c = set(candidates.get(q) or ()) h = len(t & c) got += h tot += len(t) if h == len(t): all_present += 1 return { "pair_recall": got / tot if tot else 0.0, "true_pairs": tot, "retrieved": got, "all_match_rate": all_present / n_nonsing if n_nonsing else 0.0, } # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- self-test def _selftest(): """ps.pdf's worked example: one true positive, three true matches, one prediction.""" got = entity_f05({"a"}, {"a", "b", "c"}) assert abs(got - 0.7142857) < 1e-6, got # 1.25*1/(0.75+1) assert entity_f05(set(), set()) == 1.0 # singleton, empty assert entity_f05({"a"}, set()) == 0.0 # singleton, predicted assert entity_f05(set(), {"a"}) == 0.0 # missed everything assert entity_f05({"a"}, {"a"}) == 1.0 # perfect assert abs(entity_f05({"a", "x"}, {"a"}) - 1.25 / 2.25) < 1e-9 # Break-even exchange rate: verify TP/(D-TP) against brute-force deltas, and confirm it # tends to 4 only in the limit TP -> T, k -> T. def brute_ratio(T, TP, k): D = 0.25 * T + k base = 1.25 * TP / D gain = 1.25 * (TP + 1) / (0.25 * T + k + 1) - base # one more, correct loss = base - 1.25 * TP / (0.25 * T + k + 1) # one more, wrong return gain, loss, loss / gain, TP / (D - TP) for T, TP, k in [(4, 3, 3), (10, 9, 9), (100, 99, 99), (4, 2, 2), (8, 7, 8)]: gain, loss, emp, formula = brute_ratio(T, TP, k) assert gain > 0 and loss > 0 assert abs(emp - formula) < 1e-9, (T, TP, k, emp, formula) # the limit: as TP=k=T grows, TP/(D-TP) -> 4 lim = [brute_ratio(T, T - 1, T - 1)[3] for T in (4, 40, 400, 4000)] assert lim[-1] > 3.9 and lim[0] < lim[-1] < 4.0, lim # the shipped operating point (20,000 val entities): T=68,983 k=66,324 TP=66,009 n = 20000 T, k, TP = 68983 / n, 66324 / n, 66009 / n D = 0.25 * T + k shipped = TP / (D - TP) assert 3.6 < shipped < 3.9, shipped print(f"evaluate.py self-test OK (ps.pdf example = 0.714286; " f"break-even formula verified; shipped operating point = {shipped:.2f}:1, " f"limit -> 4:1)") if __name__ == "__main__": _selftest()