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license: cc-by-nc-sa-4.0
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license: cc-by-nc-sa-4.0
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pipeline_tag: video-to-video
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tags:
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- weather
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- precipitation
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- nowcasting
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# Probabilistic Precipitation Nowcasting with Rectified Flow Transformers
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**TODO: badges**
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We propose FREUD, a FRame-wise Encoder, United Decoder rectified flow-based first stage for precipitation nowcasting.
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Weather forecasting requires probabilistic prediction. Our generative decoder allows **uncertainty-aware compression**.
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Our FREUD design enables variable-length inputs, robustness to frame drops, and preserves temporal consistency.
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We enable **simple training** - no loss weight tuning, only a simple, stable rectified flow objective.
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A rectified-flow model in FREUD latent space achieves **state-of-the-art distributional and perceptual forecasting** quality.
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*Our generative decoder can quantify uncertainty about compression and covers the true precipitation in heavy-rain scenarios, while deterministic decoding collapses to incorrect modes.*
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